[Cross-posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.
From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.
Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?
More below the fold.
SEEMS OBVIOUS
Colorado (Wayne Allard) – U.S. Rep. Mark Udall: he’s all-but-in, so no need for the hard sell, and he’s the frontrunner with momentum while the CO-GOP is looking to a potentially nasty primary
Kansas (Pat Roberts) – Governor Kathleen Sebelius: enjoys a 67-29 approval-disapproval as Governor
Maine (Susan Collins) – U.S. Rep. Tom Allen: one of only two ME Congressmen, he is routinely re-elected with 60+% of the vote
Mississippi (Thad Cochran) – Former state Attorney General Mike Moore: the most popular Democrat in Mississippi
Nebraska (Chuck Hagel) – Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey: a bright star on a relatively shallow bench
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) – Governor Mike Easley: already beating Elizabeth Dole in polling
Virginia (John Warner) – Former Governor Mark Warner: left the Governor’s office with an 80+% approval rating
SEEMS FAIRLY OBVIOUS
Alaska (Ted Stevens) – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich: With Tony Knowles’ electoral results statewide dropping from ’98 to ’04 to ’06, it seems that Begich’s star is the fasting rising among AK-Dems
Oregon (Gordon Smith) – U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer: a popular Democrat re-elected with larger totals each successive election, he seems to be politically preparing for a statewide bid
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) – Governor Phil Bredesen: enjoys a monstrous 73-24 approval rating, while Lamar is at 53-36
Wyoming (Mike Enzi) – Governor Dave Freudenthal/Former Congressional candidate Gary Trauner: pretty much the only two high profile Democrats in the state at the moment; Freudenthal enjoys a mammoth 77-19 approval, but has indicated no interest in the race; Trauner came within about 1,000 votes of winning the At-Large Congressional seat in 2006
SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (deep benches) – who would you prefer?
Minnesota (Norm Coleman) – do we choose the high-profile satirist, the millionaire public interest attorney, or well-known legislators?
New Hampshire (John Sununu) – do we choose the popular, young Mayor, the prominent activist, the progressive businessman, or the medical professor/former astronaut? An embarrassment of riches that not only should scare Sununu but also Gregg in ’10
New Mexico (Pete Domenici) – several prominent Congresspeople and current and former statewide elected officials – just waiting on Domenici to make a retire or run for re-elect decision
SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (slimmer or quieter benches) – who are your picks?
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Idaho (Larry Craig)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Texas (John Cornyn)
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FAIRLY OBVIOUS:
OR-Sen: Absolute ideal would be Kitzhaber or DeFazio, in that order, but both have declared no interest. Blumenauer is second best. If for some reason Blumenauer actually isn’t running, Steve Novick is probably our best shot unless someone else appears out of the woodwork. As long as the nominee isn’t Bill Bradbury again or a similar inept stick of wood from Kulo’s cabinet such as AG Myers, I’ll be happy.
WY-Sen: Trauner is an obvious candidate, but I’d rather he ran against Cubin again or waited for Freudenthal’s term limits, then ran for the open seat. Enzi’s too popular to waste a good candidate on in such a conservative state.
LESS OBVIOUS (deep):
MN-Sen: Judi Dutcher. Mike Ceresi second, RT Ryback and Franken tied for third.
NH-Sen: I want to see Marchand run against Sununu and Buckley vs. Gregg. They’d both win.
LESS OBVIOUS (shallow):
AL-Sen: Artur Davis, but he’s out.
OK-Sen: vs. Inhofe, Brad Carson. (vs. Coburn in 2010, Brad Henry, whose term limits as Gov are perfectly timed)
TX-Sen: My ideal is less conservative than can realistically win in Texas. Much as I dislike Cuellar, I’d take him over Cornyn, and he’s got the conservative and Hispanic appeal.
Who can win?
The progressive businessman: most definitely.
The popular mayor? Yes.
The former astronaut? Maybe.
The prominent activist? Less sure.
One thing I know… we have a small army of excellent candidates.
I actually rather not see Sebelius run in a presidential year. I’d like to see her take on Brownback in 2010.