Redistricting North Carolina

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

So you all know the drill by now – take some VTDs, consolidate them to reflect updated population stats, then piece them together. I couldn’t think of a witty title today either. Oh well.

My goals for North Carolina were to:

• strengthen Kissell (8th) and Shuler (11th)
• draw Foxx (5th) out of her district
• obey the VRA – that is, a majority-black district for Butterfield (1st) and a majority-minority district for Watt (12th)
• maintain percentages for the other Democrats: Etheridge (2nd), Price (4th), McIntyre (7th), and Miller (13th)
• get rid of that touch-point continuity in Guilford County between the 6th (Coble) and the 13th

Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that NC may be gaining a 14th seat. There’s a plan for that in the works too.

Here’s the new map (yes, everything is contiguous!):

So here are two useful pieces of info that I had:

Here’s average Democratic performance, by consolidated VTD, across 10 contests (US President, US Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Treasurer, State Auditor, Commissioners of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor, and State Superintendent of Education). Average performance in 2008 was 51% Democratic.

Here’s also a map of the minority population of each VTD:

Stats here are: Population, Black Population, Latino Population, Average Democratic and Republican performance, Obama%, McCain%, the number of Democratic and Republican VTDs. SQL is getting angry at me for putting too much data in, so if you want the county breakdown, you’ll have to look here.

So district-by-district:

One of the hardest districts I’ve had to draw. The problem is, with NC’s population growth, each district has to contain more people. Additionally, the majority-minority areas of Northeastern NC have also lost population. Thus, the far reaching tentacles that hit so many counties, including Pitt (Greenville), Lenoir (Kinston), Wayne (Goldsboro), Wilson, Nash (Rocky Mount), Beaufort (Washington), and the list goes on. I like to think of this as the Petey Pablo district (listen to ‘Raise Up’ if you have any questions.) As you can see, we barely cross the threshold at 50.04% African-American. Average Democratic performance is 66.7% – Butterfield’s not in any danger. Obama and Hagan underperformed at 62.0% and 64.5% respectively; Bev Perdue crusied here with 69.3%.

Bob Etheridge’s district has never been that Democratic on a presidential level – Obama winning was a big surprise – but still quite Democratic on a local level. This district reflects that reality as well, but shifted somewhat further south. Etheridge’s home in Lillington (Harnett County) isn’t moved, and Harnett and Lee Counties remain in this district entirely. A large chunk of Republican leaning Johnston County is cut out in the north, replaced by Anson, Hoke, and Richmond counties along the SC border. Instead of anchoring Democratic performance in Raleigh, an updated 2nd finds its strength in Fayetteville.  Average Democratic performance is 54.9%. Obama got 51.4%, Hagan 54.9% and Perdue 55.0%.

This district contains 33 Democratic precincts, which in my mind is 33 too many. However, the 3rd has to accommodate all the parts that would dilute the minority-concentrated 1st district too much, and many of those urban precincts do lean left. This is most evident in Pitt County, where average Democratic performance was 49%. Given the polarized voting often evident in the South though, the rest of this district scores 41.3% overall. Obama severely underperformed, getting 36%.  Hagan and Perdue did better, getting 40% and 47% respectively. This has potential, but it simply isn’t possible to satisfy the VRA and make this district Democratic at the same time.

Mike McIntyre’s district is pretty much like Etheridge’s, more Democratic at the local level than nationally. This district stays with Wilmington and Lumberton, along with a part of Fayetteville not in the 2nd. This district really doesn’t change all that much, other than some traded precincts with the 3rd to make this more Democratic. Obama nudged out a win with 49.7%, 5 points below the average of 54.7%. Hagan and Perdue both did well here at 55.4% and 56.4% respectively.

David Price, we seem to forget, actually lost in the Republican tide of 1994 before reclaiming his district in 1996. The Triangle, of course, has changed quite a bit since then. This district remains centered on Durham and Chapel Hill (52% of the population), with some Republican-leaning sections of Wake County thrown in for another 22%. This district does expand eastward to grab some rural areas that couldn’t fit into the first 3 districts, but Price need not be concerned. It’s 59% Democratic, but this is one of those districts where Obama overperformed (60.7%). A 60.6% showing for Hagan is a testament to the Democratic nature of this district; Perdue did underperform at 57.1%.

Even in the most gerrymandered of states, you still have some examples of compactness. This is this map’s token compact district, if you will. It consists of Wake County only, losing a good chunk of border territory along the Virginia border and an arm into Greensboro (and that touch-point!). It contains all of Raleigh and Cary, along with some suburbs. Another strong Democratic district; average performance is a bit low at 57%, but this is where Obama excelled with 59.9%, an improvement over Brad Miller’s current district, actually.

This is the other half of Brad Miller’s district, featuring the Northern border counties – Person, Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes. That’s not where the population is though, and to compensate, this district has a southern arm that hits parts of Orange, Alamance, Guilford, and Forsyth counties, including significant parts of Greensboro and Winston-Salem not drawn into Mel Watt’s 12th. Virginia Foxx doesn’t even live in this district, and I have a hard time seeing her winning this 53.8% Democratic district. Obama scored a respectable 52.9%, and Perdue 54.0%. Hagan, being from Greensboro, stomped here with 56.4%.

All the Republicans in central NC have to go somewhere, and this district is it. I think the packing of Republicans is especially evident, given that there are 3 Democratic precincts out of 190. With the Democrats in Alamance, Guilford, Union, and Mecklenburg drawn into other districts, all the Republicans are left here. At 33.3%, this is the most Republican district in NC on average. Obama scored 33.11%. Hagan did comparatively well at 37.3%, and Perdue absolutely bombed here, netting 29.2%. Sue Myrick may have less incentive to retire now.

Mel Watt’s VRA district was significantly easier to draw than Butterfield’s, partially because of the looser requirement. In essence, you have to have the majority-black precincts of Charlotte (Mecklenburg) and the Triad (Greensboro, High Point, and Winston-Salem) along with some connecting precincts. Much like the current 12th, I chose to run this district through Cabarrus, Rowan and Davidson Counties, roughly paralleling I-85. New is an arm into Statesville in Iredell County. In the interest of leaving more high-performing Democratic precincts for the 5th and 8th districts, this district also barely makes the cut at 50.02% minority. Watt’s still in no danger though, at 65.2% Democratic, 65.4% Obama, 66.7% Hagan, and 61.9% Perdue.

Larry Kissell gets a significant boost out of this district, though it becomes much more Charlotte-centric. His home in Montgomery County remains, although with a connecting strip through Stanly and Union counties into Mecklenburg. 72.6% of this district is now in Mecklenburg County, which is nice for Kissell since this district’s part of Charlotte was on average 63.3% Democratic (Obama did better at 66.3%). Overall, this makes for a 57.2% Democratic district; Obama did better at 59.0% and Hagan better still at 59.7%. Even Bev Perdue, who underperformed heavily in Charlotte (where Pat McCrory is Mayor) won, eking out a 400-vote win. This, I think, is a testament to the Democratic nature of this district, which should be safe for Kissell.

This district sets the stage for a Foxx-Coble showdown. I know the core of Coble’s district is actually in the new 6th, but Sue Myrick lives in the Mecklenburg part. Coble also lives in the Guilford part of this district. Funny how that works. (Foxx lives in the Avery County section.) More of this district is Foxx’s, but Coble’s also actually sane. I’ll leave you to decide how a primary between the two works out. The college town of Boone (Appalachian State) is removed, replaced by an arm into the Republican sections of Greensboro and Alamance County. Again, packing Republicans is at work here, with 14 out of 264 precincts being Democratic for an average of 35.8%. Obama got 32.1% (this is Appalachia, after all); Hagan 38.2%, and Perdue 36.9%.

Patrick McHenry’s district doesn’t change too much – he and Heath Shuler trade some precincts in the South to make Shuler’s district more Democratic by removing the vast majority of Republican Henderson County. I had originally wanted to draw a good district for 2008 candidate Daniel Johnson, but another Democratic district in Western NC was simply unrealistic. 15 out of 177 precincts are Democratic, leaving it at 37.1% Democratic, 35.1% Obama, 39.6% Hagan, and 33.0% Perdue.

I really tried to get Heath Shuler a district that Obama won, but it simply wasn’t possible without the district hitting Charlotte. Thus, we’re left with an Asheville-centered district that takes all of WNC to the west, and then sprouts two arms. One arm reaches northeast to grab Boone, and the other goes sawtooth along the SC border to get Forest City (Rutherford County), Shelby (Columbus), and finally, Gastonia (Gaston). This makes a 52.1% Democratic district, with Hagan and Perdue overperforming at 52.7% and 52.4% each. Obama came closer, falling 3,000 votes or 0.9% short, at 48.9%.

And there you have it, a 9-4 map of North Carolina. Without the VRA, it would be possible to squeeze at least one more Democrat out, but you can’t have everything. Questions, comments, and witty remarks about what these districts actually look like welcome.