Many of you already know the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s held a hearing today entitled “Allegations of Misconduct at the General Services Administration.” One of the allegations explored by the committee was the misuse of GSA funds and resources for political purposes, and the document on which this allegation is based is a Power Point presentation delivered by Karl Rove’s aide Scott Jennings. The presentation, delivered 26 January 2007, is the official 2007 and 2008 strategy of the White House Office of Political Affairs. Included therein are graphs and charts pertaining to district PVI, Presidential party performance in midterm elections, overall Presidential party performance during a particular President’s term, House seat statistics, including PVI, party affiliation in recent elections, partisan identification trends, data on the Republicans’ 72 hour program, voter registration data, turnout data, case studies on the success of the 72 hour program and lists of vulnerable House, Senate and gubernatorial seats. While some of this information is presented in a skewed manner, some of this data is very useful.
Top 20 House Seats Republicans Will Target
order of importance
1 TX-22 (LAMPSON)
2 FL-16 (MAHONEY)
3 CA-11 (McNERNEY)
4 OH-18 (SPACE)
5 IN-09 (HILL)
6 PA-10 (CARNEY)
7 PA-08 (MURPHY)
8 KS-02 (BOYDA)
9 PA-07 (SESTAK)
10 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH)
11 NC-11 (SHULER)
12 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ)
13 WI-08 (KAGEN)
14 GA-08 (MARSHALL)
15 IN-02 (DONNELLY)
16 GA-12 (BARROW)
17 PA-04 (ALTMIRE)
18 NY-19 (HALL)
19 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND)
20 SD-AL (HERSETH)
HOUSE GOP “PRIORITY DEFENSE”
order of importance
1 PA-06 (GERLACH)
2 FL-13 (BUCHANAN)
3 NC-08 (HAYES)
4 NM-01 (WILSON)
5 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE)
6 IL-06 (ROSKAM)
7 CT-04 (SHAYS)
8 OH-02 (SCHMIDT)
9 VA-02 (DRAKE)
10 WY-AL (CUBIN) – indicates she may retire
11 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE)
12 NV-03 (PORTER)
13 NY-25 (WALSH)
14 OH-15 (PRYCE)
15 NY-29 (KUHL)
16 NJ-07 (FERGUSON)
17 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) – indicates he may retire
HOUSE GOP “SECONDARY DEFENSE”
seats are listed in alphabetical order
AK-AL (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
CA-24 (GALLEGLY) – indicates he may retire
CA-25 (McKEON) – indicates he may retire
CA-41 (LEWIS) – indicates he may retire
CA-42 (MILLER)
CA-52 (HUNTER) – indicates he may retire
DE-AL (CASTLE) – indicates he may retire
FL-10 (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
IL-10 (KIRK)
IL-14 (HASTERT) – indicates he may retire
KY-02 (LEWIS)
LA-01 (JINDAL) – indicates he may retire
MD-06 (BARTLETT) – indicates he may retire
MI-03 (EHLERS) – indicates he may retire
MI-07 (WALBERG)
NC-09 (MYRICK) – indicates she may retire
OH-16 (REGULA) – indicates he may retire
PA-15 (DENT)
VA-11 (DAVIS) – indicates he may retire
GOP SENATE OFFENSE
in no particular order, as a map illustrates the strategy
MT-SEN (BAUCUS)
SD-SEN (JOHNSON)
IA-SEN (HARKIN)
AR-SEN (PRYOR)
LA-SEN (LANDRIEU)
NJ-SEN (LAUTENBERG)
GOP SENATE DEFENSE
in no particular order, as map illustrates the strategy
OR-SEN (SMITH)
CO-SEN (OPEN)
NM-SEN (DOMENICI)
MN-SEN (COLEMAN)
MS-SEN (COCHRAN)
ME-SEN (COLLINS)
NH-SEN (SUNUNU)
VA-SEN (WARNER)
Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are considered noncompetitive
GOP OFFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
WA-GOV (GREGOIRE)
MT-GOV (SCHWEITZER)
NC-GOV (OPEN)
LA-GOV (BLANCO) – they note this is a 2007 race
GOP DENFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
MO-GOV (BLUNT)
IN-GOV (DANIELS)
VT-GOV (DOUGLAS)
MS-GOV (BARBOUR) – they note this is a 2007 race
KY-GOV (FLETCHER) – they note this is a 2007 race
Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Delaware and New Hampshire are not considered competitive
Although some of this information is dated, I do find it very useful. How do you view this document?
I don’t see how he sees competitive.
PA-07 and PA-08 are both blue districts and it would have to be another 1994 for those to switch.
IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, and NC-11 are all districts that are represented by Blue Dog Democrats and fit their districts well. They should be fine as long as they are not caught napping as Hill was.
TX-23 was redrawn to be 61% Hispanic and it would take a miracle for a Republican to win it in its current form.
GA-12 is nearly half black and with the higher black turnout in a Presidential year he should be fine.
PA-04 is a district that has a large Democratic voting majority and Altmire is a good fit here. Ron Klink held on easily here for years and Altmire should be able to do the same.
NY-19 and NY-20 are both blue trending districts where the Republican Presidential nominee margins get smaller and smaller in every election. Both of these Congresspeople are also very much involved in local projects already. Despite a very, very strong Republican candidate, they should both be OK.
All in all, there are probably only eight seats here that they have a real shot at.
SD-AL should not be on here at all. If Herseth was able to survive the Republican avalanche in 2004 with Bush at the top of the ticket, she should have little trouble.
Some of these races make absolutely no sense! He’s saying that MT gov. SCHWEITZER is vulnerable? Is he insane? One, the gov is immensely popular in montana, two he managed to win during bush’s landslide re-election and three, there isn’t a top tier republican crazy or dumb enough to run against him.
Two, he says VT gov douglas is vulnerable. That too is preposterous, the gov only dropped two points, from 59-57 despite Bernie sanders winning 2/3 of the vote and peter welch winning a comfortable victory over Martha Rainville. Even if Pro temp Shumlin or speaker Symington should run neither would have a chance. He’s a non-offensive Jeffords republican who can bring in votes from all over. Dougie-boy’s safe as safe can be.
As for the house, “Jindal, indicates he may retire” he’s running for governor! If he wins (Shudder) he’s not going to be running for the house again, otherwise he’ll cling onto that seat to keep his name alive for another chance a few years down the road. Besides, his district is republican safe, pending redistricting.
Also Carol Shea Porter fails to make the top twenty, does he think NH has gone that far left, or does he know something we don’t (considering 2006 and this list, I doubt it). His numbers are of in montana again with Baucus, unless Rehburg runs. I’d say everyone agrees that Rehburg will wait for 2012 to either challenge tester, or run for an vacant governor’s seat (the lite gov is a repub, I know, but he’d probably back down to Rehburg).
WY-AL Cubin retiring should make the seat safe. Unless the state’s moving left faster than we realize, Cubin’s the only reason it might be competitive, the congressperson’s nuts. All in all, I’d say “the wizard” is about as effective as Saruman after the fall of Sauron.
CA-41(Lewis)
CA-52(Hunter)
LA-01(Jindal)
MI-03(Ehlers)
I don’t know why he worries about these.
send me an email please … I’d like to get you posting on my community based blog for Louisiana …
ryan@dailykingfish.com