So I decided to have a look at how my state’s congressional districts could be redistricted come 2010. It looks like we’ll miss getting a 14th seat by about 100k people (so close…), so I had to make a plan with 13 seats. This was interesting because based on the 2008 census estimates, each seat would have over 700,000 people
In NC, redistricting is done solely by the legislature, which is now under Democratic control. While it could hypothetically shift to the GOP in 2010, our numbers are good enough that that would be unlikely.
I focused mainly on protecting the 8 Democratic incumbents (espescially Kissell and Shuler), seeing as the 5 districts still in GOP hands are pretty Republican for the most part.
Here is my map:
1st District – G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson). This is a solidly Democratic, black majority district that covers much of northeastern North Carolina. I didn’t make many big changes to this district, mostly because it was hard to pinpoint specific black areas and how much the black populations there have changed.
2nd District – Bob Etheridge (D-Lillington). This mainly rural district narrowly went for Obama after voting for Bush in 2000 and 2004. I added more black areas in Wake County to make it somewhat more Democratic and moved some Republican parts of Johnston County to the nearby 3rd district. Etheridge has been elected 7 times so he is probably safe here.
3rd District – Walter Jones (R-Farmville). This is a solidly Republican coastal district where Obama got only 37% of the vote, and Jones is fairly popular so I didn’t change very much, Just for kicks, I drew Jones’ home into the 1st district, but he can still run in the 3rd.
4th District – David Price (D-Chapel Hill). This rapidly growing district includes much of the Triangle and RTP. Obama won 62% here mainly thanks to Durham and Orange counties. I transferred some of the populous Wake County parts of this district to the 13th and 2nd districts to make them more Democratic.
5th District – Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk). This is GOP country. It would have been a challenge to make this district more Democratic without harming some of the neighboring districts. The 5th lost Democratic Watauga County, but I added Republican parts of Guilford County (Greensboro) from the 6th district and most of Rockingham County from the 13th district.
6th District – Howard Coble (R-Greensboro). Coble is NC’s longest serving congressman, first elected in 1984. I kept his Republican district mostly the same but gave some of his Guilford territory to Virginia Foxx. Coble will keep his job for as long as he wants.
7th District – Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton). This district went for McCain by 6 points, but on the state and local level it is mostly Democratic. I added some more areas in Sampson County but didn’t change very much. McIntyre is a conservative Blue Dog who matches his district well and the 7th has only had 3 congressmen in the the last 50 years, so he is safe.
8th District – Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe). After narrowly losing to Robin Hayes in 2006, Kissell finally defeated him in 2008, while Obama won the district by 8 points. To make it more Democratic, I gave parts of Republican-leaning Union County (Jesse Helms grew up there) to Sue Myrick’s 9th district. In return, the 8th picked up some Democratic urban areas of Charlotte from the 9th.
9th District – Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte). This district is made up of the Republican-leaning suburbs of Charlotte and it has been held by former Myrick since 1995. McCain won the 9th by 10 points and Myrick will be safe for a long time. In addition to trading urban areas of Charlotte with Republican parts of the 8th district, I put all of Gaston County into the 9th district (I will explain).
10th District – Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville). This is the granddaddy of GOP districts in NC and has been in Republican hands since 1969. I took in all of Rutherford and McDowell counties from Heath Shuler’s 11th district. I also drew McHenry’s lifelong Gaston County home into the 9th just to annoy him 🙂
11th District – Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville). I gave McHenry Rutherford and McDowell counties, but in return I took in Mitchell and Avery counties from the 10th. I added Democratic trending Watauga County (App State) to Shuler’s district to make it more Democratic.
12th District – Mel Watt (D-Charlotte). This is the infamous 12th district, which has been declared unconstitutional 3 different times. It’s a black plurality, very Democratic district that follows the I-85 corridor. I didn’t make many changes, mainly because I didn’t know much about the specific racial concentrations within each county.
13th District – Brad Miller (D-Raleigh). After narrowly going for Bush in 2000 and then Kerry in 2004, this district gave Obama a whopping 58% of the vote in 2008. It was gerrymandered by then State Sen. Brad Miller 2001 to elect him when NC gained a 13th seat in 2000. I made it more Democratic by adding some urban areas of Wake County. Miller will be safe until he decides to move up to higher office.
Please let me know what you think and if there are any changes or improvements that I can make.
Thanks and enjoy!
I thought so, but maybe trends have changed since then. Looks similar to the old map but protects Kissell well, and Schuler though I doubt he needs it. I see us winning Sue Myrick’s district sometime in the future, maybe when she retires, because like most suburban districts it seems to be trending Democratically.
I think you meant that you put all of Gaston County into the 9th District (not the 8th District like you said).
That map is beautiful, and I’ve been using Paint this whole time to approximate district lines.
One wild card for 2011 is that Mel Watt’s district is no longer VRA-protected, since it didn’t have a majority-African-American composition.
I could see two situations, one where the 12th becomes a compact Charlotte-based district, or perhaps it might get even uglier (maybe an arm into Durham?) as the map tries to shoot for 50%.
Howard Coble will be unlikely to last out the next decade. The man is currently 78 and it is hard to see an 89 year old serving in the House. That might be reason to look at his idstrict differently. In fact, only McHenry is young among the GOP representatives.
Jones is easily the most moderate and in his istrict we’d mostly be worried about a primary installing a wingnut.
If the 6th district (Howard Coble) or the 13th district (Brad Miller) is contiguous or not in theircurrent form? I looked at a high detail map and realized that either the 6th or the 13th is split by the other with zero contiguity, which is unconstitutional.
Here’s a MaxDem attempt. It doesn’t protect Watt’s district and, so, might be illegal. But the 12th needs to look reasonable. Here are two possible ways to make a map:
With a little luck, we’ll hold onto the solid state legislature and the Governor’s mansion, and will be able to run the table on redistricting after the 2010 census. Is there a way to tilt the delegation further in our favor at that time? The answer depends on whether you’re willing to sacrifice the two minority districts. It seems to me that it would be better to have a solid blue Democratic delegation of whatever color than to have a couple of black Democrats continually outvoted by white Republicans in surrounding areas. However, there are legal considerations. Here’s the 3rd District, the only GOP one in east NC: It’s a shameless gerrymander, and NC Democrats could get rid of it, but ONLY by swapping voters with the black 1st district. The other nearby districts, the 2nd and 7th, are already dangerously red and could not be further diluted without an unacceptable risk that those districts might flip to the GOP. What we could do is a partial ungerrymander. It’s 54.6 percent minority coalition, but also 50.7% AA. If we could swap a little, to reduce the coalition number to 50%, we might be able to weaken the already disliked Jones.
Farther west, here’s the 12th: To make THIS piece of earthworm roadkill, they took every black Democrat out of both Charlotte AND Winston-Salem, leaving the surrounding 5th, 6th, 10th and 9th districts virtually uncompetitive for Democrats. Mel Watt has been around since 1992. It seems to me that it would be a good idea, at least to put enough of Blue Charlotte into the 9th to get Sue Myrick out, and take a chance that the rest of the 12th has come to like and trust Watt enough that they’ll continue to vote him in without a black majority (which it doesn’t have anyway). He regularly gets very high victory margins.
OR
The General Assembly goofed when it drew most of the 2nd’s share of Raleigh into the new 13th, leaving only a tiny sliver. Bob Etheridge likely has this seat for as long as he wants it, but this district contains some pretty conservative territory outside of Raleigh. Johnston County, in particular, is DEEEP red–it’s home to Fred Smith, who lost the Repub primary to Pat McCrory and is scary conservative. I would push the 4th’s share of Raleigh into the 2nd, while moving all of Chatham County to the 4th. Kill two birds with one stone–make the 2nd easier to defend, while eliminating even the tiniest chance a Repub will succeed David Price. As a tradeoff, I’d split Fayetteville between the 7th and 8th districts. The 7th scares me as much as the 2nd, if only because of some areas around Wilmington. Fayetteville’s kept the 7th Democratic even through the 1994 debacle, and adding a little more should keep it that way once Mike McIntyre steps down. I’d then put all of the northeastern portion of Mecklenburg County into the 8th, while taking out the sliver in the southeast. Combined with the added portion of Fayetteville, this will give Larry Kissell a lot more breathing room. Let’s be honest–the 13th is one ugly district. There’s really no rational basis for putting Greensboro in the same district as Raleigh. I’d put the 13th’s share of Greensboro back in the 6th, while adding its share of Alamance County to the 4th. In return, the 13th picks up Warren County from the 1st, as well as the 1st’s share of Vance County. Presto–Brad Miller goes from a marginally Democratic district to a strongly Democratic district. The 6th, to my mind, presents the most opportunity for a little redistricting fun while adding the least amount of territory–namely, restoring all of Guiliford County (Greensboro) to the district. At the very least, Howard Coble gets a tougher district to defend, and even if he does retire in this seat it makes it much easier to flip. On to the 12th… Let’s be honest–there is no rational basis for putting Charlotte, Greensboro and Winston-Salem in the same district. In addition to shifting Greensboro and High Point to the 6th, I’d add the 12th’s share of Winston-Salem to the 5th. In exchange, I’d place all of the Lake Norman area in the 12th, as well as eastern Gaston County (Mount Holly and Belmont). Now the 9th. The key here is to put enough Democrats here that they can combine with the moderate Repubs in Charlotte to send Sue Myrick packing. I’d push the 9th further into downtown Charlotte, picking up bluer-than-blue Dilworth. I’d also add in southwestern Mecklenburg County while sending eastern Gaston County to the 12th and all of Gastonia to the 10th.
In 1992, the NC Legislature made the 1st district (Eastern NC) into a black majority district, but the Justice Department told them that they needed to make a second black district. Hence the creation of the 12th’s infamous gerrymander stretching (at that time) all the way from Charlotte to Durham.
So if they turned the 12th into a non-majority-minority district in 2011, which would definitely happen if it was a Charlotte area district alone, wouldn’t the Justice Department just intervene again and force them to keep or create a majority-minority district (of over 50%)?
Anyway to tweak Jones district so he could conceivably win it as a Dem? He votes with Dems as often as Republicans now, even on procedural votes. Currently it wouldn’t make much political sense for him to switch, but if he could win as a Dem I think he might prefer that instead of having to watch his right flank.