I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I’m going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn’t already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren’t exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here’s my map with district profiles down below the flip.
District 1– (Bart Stupak D) mostly the same but expands to include Kalkaska, Roscommon, and the rest of Bay County. Overall becomes slightly more Democratic.
District 2– (TBD[successor of Pete Hoekstra]R) gives up Allegan County in the south, as well as Eastern portions of Ottawa County and the North-West corner of Kent County that was formerly in the district. Gains Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Missaukee, and Osceola Counties. This district becomes a bit more Democratic (mostly because it loses strongly conservative parts of Ottawa and Kent Counties) and Barack Obama would have carried this district narrowly, but it should still favor Republicans in the future.
District 3– (Vern Ehlers R) Drops Barry and Ionia County in exchange for some very Conservative areas of Kent and Ottawa Counties. Becomes more Republican.
District 4– (Dave Camp R + Mike Rogers R) I decided that I would throw these two together because I did not want to eliminate Thad McCotter in case he is defeated by a Democrat in 2010. I put Livingston County (Rogers base and home) in with most of the current 4th District. Dave Camp should be the favorite considering it includes his base of Midland as well as most of his old turf, but I wouldn’t count Mike Rogers out. The inclusion of Livingston County makes this district more Republican. Barack Obama would have lost here.
5th District– (Dale Kildee D) Looks like a combination of James Barcia’s old District and Dale Kildee’s current district. It drops all of the territory it held in Bay County but gains the more Republican thumb counties of Huron and Sanilac. However, with Flint as the base of this district and Genesee County making up more than half of the population, this District stays Democratic.
6th District– (Fred Upton R) This is the most gerrymandered district in the state, and yet it only splits one County! This district looks quite a bit different from it’s current shape It’s base of Kalamazoo is taken out to make Mark Schauer safer. In exchange it gets all of Allegan, Barry, and Branch counties and about half of Eaton County. The loss of Kalamazoo makes this district a lot more Republican, although Barack Obama may have won here, depending on exactly what parts of Eaton County are included.
7th District– (Mark Schauer D) I think that I succeeded in making Mark Schauer safe from any Republican challenge, but I fear that I may have set him up for a primary challenge from a Lansing area Democrat, as Lansing becomes the new base of this district. The only part of the old 7th district that I left was Calhoun County (Battle Creek) which is Schauer’s home. I put in all of Ingham and Kalamazoo Counties and about half of Eaton. Barack Obama won every county in this district and probably came close to 60% here.
8th District– (Gary Peters D) It is hard to tell on my map, but according to my plan for the 8th district, Gary Peters would get Madison Heights and Southfield, both extremely Democratic cities (Barack Obama got 88% in Southfield), while dropping the strongly Republican cities of Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Berkley. The addition of Southfield probably brings Barack Obama to around 60% here.
9th District– (Candice Miller R) Instead of a “Thumb” district, this district becomes a “Detroit suburbs and exurbs district.” It loses Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County, and Huron and Sanilac Counties in “The Thumb,” While picking up some seriously Republican turf in Oakland County, including the suburb Novi that is currently in Thad McCotters 11th District. It still includes the Republican leaning Exurb St. Clair and Lapeer Counties.
10th District– (Thad McCotter R [Should favor Democrat]) Includes all of Thad McCotter’s current portion of Wayne County, plus the cities of Inkster, Romulus, and part of Dearborn Heights. The current part of Wayne County in the 11th gave Obama 57%. That probably bumps up to just under 60% Obama. Also includes Monroe County, which Obama won 51-47.
11th District– (Sander Levin D) Changes very little, except that it swaps out Southfield for the rest of Sterling Heights. Becomes a bit less Democratic, but still favors Levin or his successor.
12th District– (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D) One of two VRA protected districts in Michigan. Population loss will force this district to expand, but it still stays within Wayne County and is majority Black.
13th District– (John Conyers D) The other VRA district expands into Dearborn but stays heavily Black and heavily Democratic. (Note that John Dingell’s home is in this new district, but I expect that he’ll have retired by 2012 and if frankly, if Debbie Dingell is holding his seat by then, I really don’t care if she gets stuck in Conyer’s district)
14th District– (John Dingell D) This district moves out of Wayne County and now takes in all of Washtenaw County as well as Jackson, Lenawee, and Hillsdale Counties. It is now completely based in Ann Arbor and should elect a liberal, Ann Arbor Democrat. Barack Obama won three out of the four Counties in this new district.
Questions? Comments? Errors to point out? Leave ’em in the comments.
I’d really like for Dems to be in control of Michigan. A 9-5 Dem map was about where I’d imagine it will be if it happens. Though even a compromise map in Michigan would be an improvement over the current map.
Probably a 50/50 shot at having full control. The House is pretty solidly controlled post-2008. The state Senate looks promising with a lot of open seats on the republican side. It could come down to the Governorship.
Put Grand Rapids and Muskegeon without Ottawa Co in a district and make another Repub sweat.
And Schauer doesn’t need that much protection, so don’t put Kalamazoo in his district, put it back in Upton’s district and chase him.
Run Peters district into Detroit, have him give up some Dem areas in Oakland, and stick that in Candice Miller’s district and challenge her hard.
We should shoot for 12-2 in Michigan.
Putting the two most senior House members into the same district when Democrats control the trifecta seems unlikely. Dingell just became the longest serving House member in US history. Now he’s homing in on Carl Hayden and Bobby Byrd whose combined service time for House and Senate exceeds his.
Dingell lost a lot of power when his chairmanship was taken from him. He still may be the strongest ally the auto industry has in DC. That would seem to keep him in the House and keep the districting in his favor for a while. No Republican is going to do the auto industry any good no matter how they vote and Peters and Schauer are of limited value now. Conyers has other interests.
The very thing that turns you off about Dingell may keep him in place.
I see you kept counties together as much as possible to make clean-looking districts, while making newly elected Democrats safer. I’m sure that wasn’t easy.
Now that Replicans contol everything, look for Peters’ district to get eliminated and split between Sandy Levin and Kildee. The Dems will be left with 5 safe seats in southeast Michigan (the two Detroit seats, Dingell’s downriver/Ann Arbor, Levin’s increasingly minority inner ring suburb seat, and the I-75 corridor seat that Kildee and Peters will have to fight for). 9 GOP seats. Ugh.