New York Redistricting

This is my first diary since July 24th. This time, I am redistricting New York assuming the Democrats still control the New York State Senate. I drew this map assuming New York will lose one vote. I tried to create a 27-1 Democratic delegation. I decided 28-0 was too risky but I made the 1 Republican district competitive. I know 2010 should be a Republican year but 2012 will not be because Obama should be reelected. He will probably rebound like Bill Clinton did in 1995 and win reelection easily. Back to redistricting: even though the 6th district is no longer Black majority, I made two Hispanic majority districts. I also increased the 5th district’s minority population so a minority candidate will probably elected when Ackerman retires. In this diary, I am going to focus mostly on LI and Upstate Democrats because NYC Democrats are pretty safe. I gerrymandered Downstate New York a bit but in Upstate, I tried not to split counties except for population and contiguity. This is what my rankings mean: Safe means safe for the incumbent party, Likely means currently safe but possibly competitive, Lean means competitive but not a nail biter, Toss Up means a nail biter. Here are the maps.

District 1 Tim Bishop (D) (Dark Blue)

Even though Bishop has won easily recently, he could eventually face a real challenge. That is why I sent a finger to take in some heavily Hispanic areas. That should help protect him. Besides that, his district does not change much. Obama probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 5% Black, 13% Hispanic and 77% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 2 Steve Israel (D) (Green)

I weakened Israel a bit by adding the white northern and southern parts of Suffolk County. Unless he faces a tough challenger, he should win. Obama probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 7% Black, 13% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 3 Peter King (R) (Purple on Long Island)

With the exclusion of white areas in northern Nassau County, the inclusion of heavily Democratic Hempstead and putting 8% of the district in Queens, this district appears to be unfavorable territory for King. Even though I include King’s base, the Democratic areas I included should offset margins from his base. I wonder if King will agree with me and run in the 2nd district instead of retiring. I bet Israel can hold off King. I know that I kept most of King’s base here but since I raised the minority population alot, King should still be in jeopardy. I am not too familiar with local candidates in Nassau County so if anyone can tell me about some, that would be great. I think Obama won 55%-56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 19% Black, 16% Hispanic and 60% White (down from 86% White in the old district.) Status is Likely Democrat if King retires, Lean Democrat if he runs.

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District 4 Carolyn McCarthy (D) (Red)

I changed her district around a lot so King would think that her district is too Democratic to win. With the inclusion of some Queens neighborhoods, I am not too worried about McCarthy’s chances. Obama probably won 56%-58% of the vote here. Racial stats are 7% African American, 12% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat if King runs, Safe Democrat if he does not run.

District 5 Gary “Caroline Kennedy is no more qualified to be president than Sarah Palin” Ackerman (D) (Yellow)

Reducing the white population from 44% to 37% was partly motivated by my personal opinions and that minority groups will try to get more minorities elected to Congress. I had to remove white areas, put them in the 9th and snake the district closer to Manhattan. Unless Ackerman faces a strong challenge, he should keep his seat because whites are a plurality. To protect other districts such as the 7th and the 12th, I could not increase his minority population much more. Besides the Kennedy/ Palin issue, this guy is pretty Conservative. He submitted H.Con.Res.362; a bill which is basically declares war on Iran. Racial stats are 25% Hispanic, 30% Asian and 37% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 6 Gregory Meeks (D) (Teal)

Meeks’s district is no longer Black majority but they still make up the majority of the primary voters. Minority groups might sue but Charlie Rangel whose district is 30% Black seems pretty content with his district. Blacks are the definite plurality so Meeks has no worries. I sent his district into LI to weaken Peter King. Racial stats are 46% Black, 18% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 18% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Joseph Crowley (D) (Gray)

Personally, I have no problem with Crowley but his district was the best suited to make Hispanic majority. Even though they do not make up the majority of the voters, this district will probably elect a Hispanic when he retires. Racial stats are 22% Black, 50% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 18% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Jerrold Nadler (D) (Purple)

Nadler does not actually live in this district. He lives in the Upper West side but he will probably run here because it contains most of his old district. The Brooklyn parts of the district lean Democratic but the Manhattan part of this district raises its Democratic percentage. Racial stats are 9% Hispanic, 21% Asian and 65% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 9 Anthony Weiner (D) (Bright Blue along Jamaica Bay)

His district looks more convoluted now. It still stays the same politically: competitive at a national level but heavily Democratic at a local level. Racial stats are 5% Black, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 10 Edolphus Towns (D) (Fuchsia)

The African American population drops but not nearly enough to alter the voting in this district. Racial stats are 53% Black, 21% Hispanic and 21% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 11 Yvette Clarke (D) Light Green

Not much change here either. Racial stats are 57% Black, 11% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 23% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 12 Nydia Velazquez (D) (Light Blue)

Velazquez seems safe but I made this district Hispanic majority so a Hispanic has an easier time getting elected when she retires. Racial stats are 8% Black, 50% Hispanic, 18% Asian and 21% White. Status is Safe Democrat

District 13 Michael McMahon (D) (Tan)

Since he was elected in 2008, I made his district solidly Democratic while keeping Staten Island within one district. With 30% of the district in Manhattan, McMahon’s only problem should be a very strong moderate Republican running here. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 68% White. Status is Likely Democrat depending on the challengers.

District 14 Carolyn Maloney (D) (Dirty Green)

She loses some Hispanic precincts to the 12th district and her district extends to the Hudson River. It is still heavily Democratic. Racial stats are 10% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 74% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 15 Charlie Rangel (D) (Orange)

It extends further south into Manhattan and into Riverdale. Minorities are still the overwhelming majority here. The Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee should be happy with this new district. I reduced the Hispanic population from 48% to 44% to strengthen Hispanic representation in the 7th and 16th districts. Even though the Hispanic turnout is not very high, there should be a close contest between a Black and a Hispanic when Rangel retires. The reason is that the Hispanic population will keep growing. Racial stats are 30% Black, 44% Hispanic and 20% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 16 Jose Serrano (D) (Light Green)

The district gets whiter and less Hispanic but Serrano should be safe. Racial stats are 27% Black, 58% Hispanic and 9% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 17 Eliot Engel (D) (Purple above New York City)

Due to population growth, I had to remove parts of Bronx and add in parts of Orange County. Heavily Democratic neighborhoods in the Bronx and Yonkers should keep this district in the Democratic column. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 22% Black, 15% Hispanic, and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 18 Nita Lowey (D) (Yellow in Westchester County)

This district is now completely in Westchester County, extending all the way to the Putnam County border. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% Black, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 67% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 19 John Hall (D) (Light Green)

Hall seems safe in his current district because he won 58% of the vote there in 2008 even though he was elected in 2006. I solidified his hold by extending his district into some heavily Democratic precincts in Westchester County. I also kept in the cities in Orange County while removing more rural areas. These changes should keep Hall safe. Obama probably won 55%-57% of the vote here. Racial stats are 10% Black, 16% Hispanic and 68% White. Status is Safe Democrat or Likely Democrat depending on the challengers.

District 20 Scott Murphy (D) (Light Pink along eastern New York border)

Murphy was elected to Congress against Republican State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco by a hair. Democrats will probably remove Tedisco’s home in Saratoga County and send the district up to the Canadian border to take in some Democratic counties. Here are the vote totals for the district except for the chunks of Dutchess and Otsego Counties: Barack Obama 159,784 and John McCain 143,853. Obama won about 52% of the vote in this district including the Dutchess and Otsego County chunks. Obama’s percentage rose by one point but with Tedisco’s base removed and Murphy’s home base in the district, Murphy appears safe. Racial stats are 91% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 21 Paul Tonko (D) (Mahogany Brown)

To protect the 20th and 22nd district, I removed Democratic Schenectady and Troy while adding some marginal rural counties. The voting totals for this district except for Chenango County are Obama 182,927 and McCain 137,887. It should be about two hundred votes less for Obama and McCain because the 20th district contains 900 people in Otsego County. Obama won about 56%-57% of the vote in the district. Racial stats are 5% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 22 Maurice Hinchey (D)vs. Eric Massa (D) (Dirt Brown)

I made a few changes by removing Cornell University and adding Schenectady. Except for Broome and Steuben Counties, the vote totals for this district are Obama 154,312 and McCain 127,453. Hinchey is still safe. Massa is a freshman Democrat so he may run in the 25th district. Obama probably won 55% of the vote overall. Racial stats are 5% Black, 5% Hispanic and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 23 Michael Arcuri (D) (Light Turquoise)

I eliminated Republican John McHugh’s vacant seat assuming a Republican wins it. Arcuri loses most of his old 24th district but keeps Oneida County. The numbers for the district excluding Onondaga County are: Barack Obama, 120,726 votes and John McCain with 116,679 votes. Yes, I know it is close but Onondaga has heavily Democratic and Arcuri splits the city with the 24th district. Obama only wins about 52% of the vote here but Arcuri will probably win his Oneida County home base. His Republican challenger in 2008 Richard Hanna gave him a close race but I removed his home from the district. Racial stats are 87% White. Status is Likely Democrat but could change to Lean in a Republican year.

District 24 Dan Maffei (D) (Purple in Upstate)

I move his district around a bit but with heavily Democratic areas in Broome and Onondaga Counties, Maffei should have no worries. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 6% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 25 Vacant (Pink but NOT the district in Rochester)

Except for Tompkins County (Cornell University,) this district is mostly Republican. Since Maffei has all the Democrats he needs, Cornell has to go somewhere and I wanted to split as few counties as possible. Excluding split counties (Steuben and Wyoming) Obama has 127,859 votes to McCain’s 127,339 votes. Yep, equally divided between the parties but McCain is the overall winner. Steuben and Wyoming Counties are heavily Republican so they would make McCain carry the district. Chris Lee, the Republican Congressman from the 26th does not live here but he may run here because his home is in the Democratic 27th. 2012 should be an Obama year so Tompkins County should have high turnout which could propel a Democrat into office. Lee seems to be a good campaigner so he would be the frontrunner. Eric Massa may run here even though the district tilts Republican. Racial stats are 91% White. Status is Lean Republican.

District 26 Brian Higgins (D) vs. Chris Lee (R) (Gray)

I put this district entirely in Erie County and increased the minority population. These changes strengthen Obama’s performance. Higgins’s only problem is Chris Lee who would probably run in the more Republican 25th. Higgins has won easily in 2006 and 2008 so he should be safe. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 9% Black and 82% White. Status is Safe Democrat if Lee does not run, Likely Democrat if Lee runs.

District 27 Louise Slaughter (D) (Light Green)

It gets less Democratic but with the inclusion of Rochester and Buffalo central cities, this district remains Democratic. Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Racial stats are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 28 Vacant (Pink District in Rochester)

I tinkered with the district a bit by including more of Monroe County (Rochester) and splitting Rochester with the 27th. Republican Wyoming, Genesee and Wayne Counties should not be enough to offset Democratic margins. Eric Massa is the current representative of the 29th. He does not live here but since it contains part of his current district and it is Democratic, he might take a run at it. A Democrat should win it anyway. Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. Status is Safe Democrat.