Florida can be considered as three regions distinct in culture, economics, and voting patterns. Northern Florida is deep red; the I-4 corridor is light red; and the Miami metropolis is moderately blue.
Until recently, Florida was far different from what it looks like today. It was the quintessential Southern state, and it was fairly empty in term of people. Florida’s voting record reflected its southern roots. Until Eisenhower won it twice, Florida was part of the Solid South. In 1964, LBJ ran well behind his national average, due to his support for civil rights. The next election, George Wallace took 29% of the vote. Then in 1976, Jimmy Carter resurrected the Solid South for the last time, winning Florida by 5%. That was also the last time a Democrat ran above the national average in Florida.
Northern Florida and the Panhandle
Florida still is a Southern state to some extent. This is especially true in northern Florida and the panhandle, which borders Alabama and Georgia. Northern Florida is very conservative; it is not uncommon to see a Republican taking 70% or more of the vote in a number of counties there.
As the picture indicates, northern Florida constituted the place in which McCain performed best. There were no counties in which Obama won over 70% of the vote, although he comes fairly close in majority-black Gadsden County (where he won 69.1% of the vote).
Gadsden County provides a neat encapsulation of all that makes northern Florida tough going for Democrats. Like much of the Deep South, voting is racially polarized. If a county is like Gadsden, it votes blue; if, on the other hand, a county does not have many blacks, it is usually deep red. There are not many independents in this region; voting habits are deeply entrenched. The “average” voter and the “average” county is a hard-core Republican.
The result is something like this:
This is northern Florida in the 2008 presidential election.
There are three noticeable blue areas (out of five Democratic counties). One is Gadsden County, which is majority black. The other two are homes of major public universities: Tallahassee hosts Florida A&M University and Florida State University, while Alachua County is home to the University of Florida.
This is the Democratic “base,” such as it is. Blacks and college students have historically been the most faithful Democrats, and in northern Florida they are the only Democrats.
A final note before moving on to central Florida. Although Jacksonville most always votes Republican, there is a substantial black minority within it that, unfortunately, has had historically poor turn-out. A strong Democrat can mobilize these voters and essentially erase Republican margins in this county. Barack Obama was extremely successful at doing so, which is why the red circle is relatively small in the map. On the other hand, John Kerry was not as successful; he lost Jacksonville by 17 points, as the picture below indicates.
–Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…
You really seem to have a handle about Northern Florida politics. A few things: You said something about voters in those red counties being hard core Republican. Democrat Bill Nelson just creamed Katherine Harris in many of those counties in 2006. He won 68% in Liberty (above his overall 60% of the vote,) 56% in Dixie and 57% in Lafayette and so on. This was in 2006 and Harris is not a nobody candidate (she was the infamous Florida Secretary of State who helped Bush cheat in 2000.) Nelson is an I-4 corridor candidate so he could not call northern Florida his home. The people in those counties are mostly racist who swing in statewide elections but are solidly Republican in national elections (even Jeb Bush lost Liberty County in 2002, a year when he won 56% of the vote for the Governorship statewide.)
On another note, I think there alot of public employee unions in Tallahassee to help make up the Democratic base there.
Overall, really good analysis!
Jacksonville is a perfect example of what’s wrong with the Florida Democratic party. How can a party after all these years still not figure out how to motivate and get to the polls black voters? They need to “import” GOTV people from Southern states with good turnouts. I speaking of North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia etc. Unfortunately the money in Florida Democratic politics is in south Florida and this colors how they get their leaders. Southern Florida blacks are about a 50/50 ethnic split of Caribbeans (mostly Haitians Jamaicans) who are closer to the NYC area in terms of how to reach out to them, than Northern Florida’s blacks who are closer to a southern state’s blacks. The same people who have no problem understanding that in NYC or Chicago, Irish-Americans, Italians, and Jews may need slightly different approaches on issues assume “all black folk are the same”. I can’t tell you how tiresome it is explaining this to people.
Now ignoring the race issue for a second, a successful FL Democratic party needs to look at how Democrats have recently won state wide in majority. They focus a lot of time campaigning in these rural areas that are red country. They still lose them but they cut down on their margins. Sen. Clair McKaskill did this brilliantly when she won (she learned this lesson from her loss running state wide the 1st time), Hillary did this in NY State in her 1st Senate run. Karl Rove did this to help Bush win, he focused on getting voting literature to Latino and Black voters who went to Pentecostal/Evangelical churches, this was the key to him holding down Democratic margins in these groups. (note: Gore and Kerry got average performances from Latino Catholics, they got “hammered” amongst 25% of Latinos who are protestants) Florida democrats need a “sugar daddy” who will donate money to “losing” candidates who can help turn out North Floridian voters and still lose, but who will help the party overall. Getting people to donate to losing candidates is hard, but the upside is huge. The party can figure out better ways to “compensate” these people later (University chairs, Ambassadors, etc.)