Five weeks from election day and Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) leads Bill Owens (D) by seven points with Doug Hoffman (C) trailing in the first independent poll of the special election to replace Army Secretary John McHugh in the House of Representatives for New York’s 23rd District.
The topline numbers from the Siena College Research Institute (LV, 9/27-29, MoE 3.9%) are:
Scozzafava 35%
Owens 28%
Hoffman 16%
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf…
“This is a wide open race. One in five voters is currently undecided. Add to that the fact that one-third of Scozzafava’s current supporters and one-quarter of Owens’s current supporters say they are not very certain of their choice and that they very well may change their minds between now and Election Day.”
I think it fair to say this is a total tossup, particulary with the better known Scozzafava having such a small lead. I will update with more thoughts when I’ve poured over some of the internals.
UPDATE
Looking at the 2008 presidential race in the district we find Obama won Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Madison, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties. McCain carried Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis and Oneida.
The three-way makes it difficult to extrapolate but Scozzafava leads big in the West (which is where her Assembly district is located) matching McCain in Jefferson and Lewis counties but also in St. Lawrence where Obama won big.
On the contrary Owens leads in some of the central counties she represents and which McCain won, namely Madison, Oneiga and Oswego.
The good news is they are tied in places Obama won big – Clinton, Essex and Franklin. As andgarden mentions in the comments Obama is popular in the district so if people there get to know Owens and like what they hear I think there is a good chance he can take this one.
On the flipside McCain did well in Fulton and Hamilton so Owens is overperforming there though I suspect that has more to do with Hoffman taking conservative votes.
UPDATE 2
Favorables are interesting. Scozzafava clocks in at 33-20-47, favorable, unfavorable, no opinion. Hopefully Hoffman’s kamikaze act helps make people form a negative opinion.
Owens is at 23-12-64 so significantly more room to grow. Hoffman at 16-13-71.
Top issues, economy and health care, unsuprisingly, and the candidates are split.
McHugh’s endorsement would be key according to the numbers but if Obama comes out for Owens is it at all likely he will oppose his new boss? Interesting.
here.
Obama is popular in the district.
I really have difficulty caring so much about this race.
What I wonder is whether Scozzafava is peeling off conservative Democrats, or liberals who are unhappy with Owens’ position on issues like health care.
to support each candidate based on television/radio adds. Owens’ spread is 32-7. Scozzafova is at 13-16. Hoffman is at 12-11.
Good work on Owens’ PR campaign, at least.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
Can’t hurt in bringing Dems over to Owens.
And they never stood a chance – the best shot was back about in ’82 ? (Google isn’t even helping much here), when former Lt. Gov Mary Ann Krupsak ran – and lost badly.
So most of the electorate never paid attention to the D candidate. This will be the first congressional election in the lifetime of most NY-23 voters that the D has a real chance to win.