With the midterms only 10 months away it is time now to cast our eyes over the biggest state in the country – California.
How will we fare in 2010?
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)
All of the doom and gloom amongst naysayers about our chances in this years midterms simply does not tally when we drill down into race by race analysis in California.
For a start I think that all 34 Democratic incumbents are as safe as houses – yep including McNerney in the 11th and Sanchez in the 47th.
So what about all 19 Republican held districts?
Here we go:
CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,
Obama/McCain – 42.7/55
Kerry/Bush – 36.6/62
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.12/45.09
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 33.81/43.18
House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.1/57.9
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+11 district next year that we don’t already hold?
We don’t even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,
Obama/McCain – 49.2/48.7 (1592 Votes!)
Kerry/Bush – 40.8/58.2
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 36.14/42.70
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.73/39.58
House result 2008 (D/R)- 44/49.5
This one is definitely going to be competitive!
Bera led the COH race as at end of September 585K/446K – an impressive effort indeed. With all other Democratic candidates withdrawing and endorsing him and with a rapidly closing Voter reg gap this district will be the scene of a torrid race. Note also that Obama narrowly carried it.
CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,
Obama/McCain – 43.9/54
Kerry/Bush – 37.4/61.3
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.28/47.86
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.14/45.83
House result 2008 (D/R)- 49.7/50.3
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold? Especially as we don’t have a candidate yet and 2006/8 nominee Charlie Brown is definitely not running.
Enough said.
CA-19 (Radanovich OPEN) – R+9,
Obama/McCain – 46/52.1
Kerry/Bush – 37.9/61.1
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 36.09/46.73
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.19/43.62
House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed
Our candidates are seriously 2nd tier and need to step up massively if this is to be competitive. Do we have a State Rep who can run?
CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,
Obama/McCain – 42.1/56.3
Kerry/Bush – 33.7/65.4
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.84/49.55
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.89/46.76
House result 2008 (D/R)- 31.6/68.4
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+13 district next year that we don’t already hold?
We don’t even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,
Obama/McCain – 38.3/59.7
Kerry/Bush – 31/67.9
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.06/51.21
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.29/48.31
House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+16 district next year that we don’t already hold?
We don’t even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,
Obama/McCain – 50.5/47.7
Kerry/Bush – 43.1/55.7
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 34.15/44.12
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 35.83/41.82
House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.8/58.2
This one should be competitive but one of our candidates needs to put the foot down on the fundraising pedal. Is there a top tier candidate out there?
CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,
Obama/McCain – 49.4/48.3
Kerry/Bush – 39.9/58.8
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 34.52/43.76
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.77/39.29
House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.2/57.8
This one too should be competitive but either Conaway fundraises like crazy or we get a better candidate.
CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,
Obama/McCain – 51/47
Kerry/Bush – 43.7/55.1
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.54/44.42
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 35.67/40.50
House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.4/52.7
On paper this should be right up there but is Warner the guy to do it?
If so better start raising the dough.
CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,
Obama/McCain – 46.6/51.1
Kerry/Bush – 38.4/60.2
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 32.04/46.78
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 33.86/42.75
House result 2008 (D/R) – 37.4/62.6
No Candidate no chance. Simple really. Even with a good candidate it is a tough district.
CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,
Obama/McCain – 43.7/54.2
Kerry/Bush – 36.9/61.8
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 32.18/47.80
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.12/44.20
House result 2008 (D/R)- 38.3/61.7
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold? Only if Lewis bails out owing to ethical “issues”!
Enough said.
CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,
Obama/McCain – 44.9/53.2
Kerry/Bush – 36.9/62
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 28.88/49.79
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 30.56/46.16
House result 2008 (D/R)- 39.8/60.2
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold?
Enough said.
CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,
Obama/McCain – 49.5/48.6 (2532 Votes)
Kerry/Bush – 39.9/59
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 31.98/46.89
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.63/46.40
House result 2008 (D/R)- 48.8/51.2
Simple equation here. We have the candidate in Hedrick. If he can lift his fundraising game he may make a real of this. Remember he was the guy who delivered that 2008 result above.
CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,
Obama/McCain – 51.5/46.9
Kerry/Bush – 43.1/56
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 35.85/45.53
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.81/42.08
House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.7/58.3
Pougnet is the mayor of Palm Springs and this will be a zinger IMHO. His fundraising is going well (347K COH as at end of September) and he obviously has a very high local profile.
CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,
Obama/McCain – 47.9/49.8
Kerry/Bush – 41.6/56.9
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.49/46.84
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 32.02/43.49
House result 2008 (D/R)- 43.1/52.6
No candidate presently this one is at best a long shot.
CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,
Obama/McCain – 49.3/48.6 (2479 Votes)
Kerry/Bush – 40.4/58.3
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 27.13/49.32
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 29.40/44.77
House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.6/55.7
An intriguing district. Terribly low % of registered Dems and yet Obama won the district. Krom needs to put the foot down with her fundraising (126K COH as at end of September is not great) to make this an outside chance.
CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,
Obama/McCain – 45.1/53
Kerry/Bush – 36.5/62.5
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 28.50/47.96
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 30.94/43.86
House result 2008 (D/R)- 37.5/58.3
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold?
Enough said.
CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,
Obama/McCain – 51.3/47.1
Kerry/Bush – 43.9/55.2
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 29.62/43.64
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.40/40.27
House result 2008 (D/R)- 45.2/50.3
We lost our best candidate here (Roberts), Busby is I think flawed and Emblem has yet to make a splash. And yet Obama won the district.
Either Emblem steps up her fundraising or we get a better candidate IMHO.
CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,
Obama/McCain – 45/53.4
Kerry/Bush – 37.7/61.4
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 29.87/45.66
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.41/42.90
House result 2008 (D/R)- 39/56.4
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+9 district next year that we don’t already hold?
We don’t even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
So in summary:
Competitive race:
CA-03, CA-45
Competitive if fundraising steps up:
CA-44, CA-48
A chance if the candidate steps up their fundraising or we find a more viable candidate:
CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-50
Long shot:
CA-19, CA-40, CA-46
Forget it:
CA-02, CA-04, CA-21, CA-22, CA-41, CA-42, CA-49, CA-52.
Not bad 2 definitely competitive races and two more that could become so if our candidates step up the fundraising. Another 4 as well that could be competitive in the right circumstances. Not bad in an environment that is supposedly toxic for Democrats.
A last word also on the two supposedly vulnerable Democratic Districts:
CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,
The GOP lost their best candidate when Del Arroz withdrew. If presumptive frontrunner Grape Grower Brad Goehring makes it out of the torrid Primary (7 candidates and counting) he will still remain a 2nd tier candidate, albeit one that can self fund. McNerney will be waiting with his 675K COH as at end of September. Following from an 11 point victory last year and near parity in voter reg (in 2006 there was a 5% GOP edge) McNerney will be just fine.
CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,
Does anybody really think that a D+4 District is going to flip in California next year? The Tran/Pham GOP Primary promises to be a zinger and the winner gets to take on an incumbent who got 69% of the vote last year and has 769K COH as at the end of September as well as a 12% party reg gap.
This one ain’t gonna flip.
What say you?
What say you?
almost certain to win big at the top of the ticket, I don’t see either CA-11 or especially 47 flipping. CA-11 probably has more registered Dems than Reps by now (the R’s had an extremely narrow advantage last I checked), and Sanchez knows how to court the Vietnamese vote, even when her opponent is one of them (see Nguyen, Tan).
While on the other hand, some GOP districts look to be in serious danger, the most obvious being Lungren and Calvert. I at first was skeptical of Bono Mack being in trouble, but Pougnet looks to be a stronger candidate than I expected, and I expect this race to be high-profile as well. Dreier in my hometown’s district (CA-26) is vulnerable also, though I’m not sure how Warner would do a second time (third, if you count the unsuccessful primary run in ’06). Maybe he’d do better now that Dreier has burned most of his cash, and he doesn’t have as much coming in, no longer being Rules chair. In CA-24, Jim Dantona, who barely lost in a very Republican part of the district in some race (I don’t remember which), is probably the closest to a first-tier candidate. Beth Krom in CA-48 can make it a race if she steps up her fundraising. Not sure about the candidates in CA-50 except I don’t think Busby could win on the third attempt against Bilbray.
We don’t have much in the way of benches in the other districts, so it is very unlikely we will see competitive races in them.
I think Poughnet’s a good candidate and has a decent chance of flipping the district, but it’s easy to overhype being the mayor of Palm Springs. It’s only like the 8th largest city in the district, and some other, larger cities like Moreno Valley and Hemet are in a completely different orbit.
Great analysis overall, though.
CA-48 candidate Beth Krom actually lost her 22-year old son earlier this year. She still has a lot to prove for the CA-48 race to become top-tier, but she may well pick up the pace now that she’s had time to mourn and reflect. Her Q3 fundraising was disappointing, but somewhat understandable given the circumstances. I’ll be interested to see what she files for Q4.
Of course, it’s easy to say in hindsight, but states like California, Michigan, and Illinois, had a lot of missed opportunities to win districts that Obama carried. I don’t expect there to be much in the way of competitive districts in California this year; CA-03 is obviously going to be competitive, thanks to the strong candidate, but Hedrick in CA-44 isn’t doing very well in fundraising (and Calvert won’t be caught off-guard this time), and CA-45 is, at best, an outside shot at an upset. The rest of the seats, I’d say, are safe.
Obama’s numbers are probably a high-water mark for these Republican districts. Most of them will probably revert to their natural Republican lean this year. It would take a strongly Democratic redistricting plan to make places like CA-45 and CA-50 more competitive.
Gallegly is a weak incumbent, but there’s a good chance he will get drawn out of existence next cycle. There’s word on the ground out there that many local Dems are keeping their powder dry and won’t run or give money until 2012 when they see how this seat will look (and, ostensibly, would be much easier to win).
CA-46 is a bit disappointing in that we have no candidates for it. Debbie Cook ran a terrible campaign last year and still lost by only about ten points. Rohrabacher is clearly weak and we just need to find the right candidate to knock him off. Again though, this is where some redrawing could easily turn this ditrict blue. Right now, the district uses water contiguity to “connect” GOP Costa Mesa with Ranchos Palos Verdes/Rolling Hills, which is one of the last GOP vestiges in Los Angeles County. Move the Rolling Hills into a safe LA district and pack Costa Mesa into an uber-GOP district based out of Irvine, and then move Long Beach into his district and make him eat shit in the process. That would easily flip his seat – even Laura Richardson would win that election.
That is, of course, assuming the Congressional map isn’t drawn up to be some incumbent protection boondoggle like it was last time.