I don’t know much about Missouri politics, but I do know the state is ending up with eight districts (down one) after redistricting, and Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon gets the opportunity to veto any map that is submitted by the legislature. So, I drew up a quick-and-dirty map.
I think Nixon and the Democrats are likely to settle for a 2-5-1 map. Anything better for the Democrats isn’t going to pass muster in the legislature, and anything better for the Republicans is going to get vetoed.
MO-01 (blue, safe Democratic)
Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay gets to keep his safe urban district, which remains narrowly minority-majority (48% white, 47% black). Not much to add here. I definitely don’t think the northward excursion into St. Charles County will be enough to give a Republican an opening, especially with the racial demographics staying pretty much as is. If Clay gets to draw his own district, it might end up more confined to St. Louis City than in this drawing, but I think Nixon will be talking to Clay and other African American legislators to ensure a 2-5-1 map. If he can keep them safe, there’s no real reason for them to throw Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan in MO-03 to the wolves altogether.
MO-02 (green, likely Republican)
This wealthy, white suburban district, currently held by Republican Rep. Todd Akin, has been consolidated somewhat. I think he should retain it barring a stern Democratic challenge, although a Democrat with suburban appeal might be able to make him sweat considering the lack of ruby-red rural areas. And I don’t know exactly where Rep. Carnahan lives, but if he and Akin are drawn into the same district, that would be a marquee battle.
MO-03 (purple, swing)
Assuming Rep. Carnahan runs in this district, I think he might have a tougher go of things than before. It includes a lot more of rural Missouri along the Mississippi River, though it includes enough of St. Louis and its suburbs to remain competitive. Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson has also been drawn into this district, so it’d be a classic urban-rural matchup.
MO-04 (red, safe Republican)
Rep.-elect Billy Long should be able to keep this seat Republican despite having a lot of new territory to cover.
MO-05 (yellow, likely Republican)
Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler gets some new ground, too, including most of the current MO-07, but I don’t really see this district swinging either way, maybe unless Democratic Rep.-elect Ike Skelton ran again. But I doubt he will.
MO-06 (teal, safe Republican)
It was a bit of a pain to keep Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican congressman for the current MO-09 (which encompasses most of this district), in this district. He’d be fine here.
MO-07 (grey, safe Republican)
Republican Rep. Tom Graves overcame his stiffest challenge in 2008 with flying colors. He’s solid here, despite this district including so much of (suburban) Jackson County. No reason to think he’s not safe.
MO-08 (slate blue, safe Democratic)
This district is basically Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s current MO-05, urban Jackson and Clay counties stealing a few precincts from the urban parts of Cass and Platte counties. Cleaver should be just fine here.
Thoughts? Expertise from more Missouri-savvy SSPers?
They should demand safe districts for their 3 incumbents. 5-3 should be reasonable for a Republican-leaning swing state.
Very interesting state since the point of the redistricting.
I glad of see your map. It is very interesting to see the district of Cleaver very close to the borders of Jackson county (62% Obama). That mean the democratic district of Kansas City can keep the current rating in a solid way.
Sometimes it is not easy to find where is the home of some representatives for keep them inside their districts. My first source habitually is wikipedia. They tell R Carnahan lives in St Louis, then he would be in the 1st district in your map (primary Clay-Carnahan). I hope see not this.
With R Carnahan living in the extreme north of his current district, and T Akin living in Town and Country, in the south-east of MO-02 it seem very easy to draw a new district with both inside what merge the current MO-02 (R+9) and MO-03 (D+7). The result can be easily close to a EVEN district.
I think this can be the most likely scenario.
They’re not going to put all of St. Louis City into Clay’s district; the southern part is so white that you can actually get a more African-American district by drawing in more of St. Louis County. I was able to get a 49.5% black district (which in Dave’s app is rounded up to 50% – that’s something he needs to fix).
About Missouri redistricting lately myself, and whether or not a 3-seat scenario is sustainable for Dems. I've come up with this map, which throws Hartzler and Long (the two freshmen) into one district, with geography seemingly favoring Long.
I was most interested in the Clay/Carnahan situation. My MO-1 is 47-47 white/black, and Clay and his successors should be safe from here to eternity in it. This MO-3 keeps a healthy chunk of St. Louis City, most of the South County areas Carnahan already represents, and Jefferson and St. Genevieve Counties. But it adds some relatively Dem-friendly rural counties where the Carnahan name is gold and Russ should be able to win. Could he win this district? It would be a swing normally, but I think a Carnahan could hold it in all but the worst Dem years. Frankly, Russ would be toast in your MO-3, I think. Emerson is very popular and the area overall leans heavily GOP. You pretty much have to keep part of StL City in Carnahan's district to keep it winnable for him.
I have no clue whether the Nixon and the leg would agree to something like this, but it's just what I've thought up.
I appreciate the effort. A lot of it is spot on but I will add my two cents.
1. CD5 looks about right. Cleaver might prefer a bit more of inner Clay county and a little less of the more suburban part of Jackson county but this configuration would not upset him too much.
2. The battle ground is obviousily St Louis city and county. AA leaders and legislators in St. Louis area have already made clear there #1 goal is protecting Lacy Clay. Period -end of story. CD1 needs alot of voters. The GOP needs three state legislators to get to 2/3 and be able to draw their own map. I believe there are 15 AA legislators in St Louis city and County. So it might be Monty Hall time.
3. The Key in MO1 MO2 MO3 configuration is not so much St Louis city as the county. Caranhan has key real estate in the U City and Clayton area. There are AA voters and very liberal white voters in this area. That’s what Lacy Clay will want as much as more of the city of St Louis. Clay does not want 100K white population in SW county or St Charles. So a probable move would be 60K in U City/Clayton area plus 60K in St Louis city. Then a combined seat with South county and South city plus MO2. What you attach to that would be key. Adkin might prefer Franklin and western St Charles as opposed to older parts of st charles.
I think this is how it goes down. Nixon will not be key in this but rather Clay & the GOP
will stay in the same district. Billy Long does not live in your MO-4. He lives in Springfield.
I’m surprised to see so much love for Russ here, I think his family name actually carries more weight in DC than Mizzou. Its not like it was for his dad or Gephardt when he had that district.
Everything I’ve heard on the ground is that the GOP already has the votes in hand to override any Nixon veto. AA state reps want to protect Clay & Cleaver and have no love or loyalty to the Carnahans.
I did a new map yesterday based on the nominal plan to give Emerson St. G & Jefferson county (or parts), move all of St. Louis city and all AA precincts of St. Louis county into Clays district and Akin will take the rest of St. Louis county. Akin keeps the heavily GOP St. Charles county portions of the current 2nd, but gives up the rest to what was the 9th. The 9th will also come around the SW corner of the 2nd to take the rest of Jefferson county.
This makes Clays district even more AA, keeps Akin safe and cuts Carnahan out very cleanly.
There has to be a “fair fight” district, with the other 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats made safe. The only real options seem to be Carnahan-Akin or Carnahan-Emerson, and the latter is more likely because Akin can bring money back to the state as Seapower chairman. So your map is pretty realistic, although Nixon may insist that the battleground district be drawn into St. Louis City to give Carnahan a better home base to run on.
If the GOP is confident they can override a veto, they’ll draw Carnahan out. But they need to be sure they have the votes ahead of time, because a compromise map like this is better than risking a court-drawn map that decides to combine the two freshmen.
Here is my best stab at a 3-5 variant.
Rather than Rep. Carnahan’s new MO-03 being a southeastern district with a tendril up into St. Louis, it’s now a pretty explicit Mississippi River district. I wouldn’t call it “safe”, but it should tilt pretty decisively in favor of a strong Democrat like Carnahan.
Rep. Lacy got the shaft, though, in MO-01, and that’s why I don’t think this map is likely to get to Gov. Nixon’s desk. MO-01 in this drawing is about 56% white, 39% black, which isn’t quite as rough as Rep. Cleaver’s district, but St. Louis City is much more black-heavy and Clay hasn’t demonstrated the aptitude of Cleaver for bridging the racial divide. African American state legislators have been candid that they’re more interested in keeping Clay ensconced in a safe minority-majority urban district than getting to a 3-5 split for the Democrats. If Nixon can get them to swallow this pill – the district should stay Democratic, after all – and pass a map like this somehow, that would be ideal for the Democratic Party, but I think it’s a bit dubious.
Rep. Akin, on the other hand, gets a lot more rural counties to deal with. Rep. Luetkemeyer gets some St. Charles County suburbia and exurbia, which he should be fine with.
Obviously, they are going to go after Carnahan, but it Nixon could veto a plan like that if it is overly aggressive. If the plan ends up in court, the Democrats would still have two seats that would be safe and there would probably be a swing district that could be winnable. It’s not a great situation for the Democrats to be in, but there isn’t a lot to gamble with and taking a chance on the court may be a better idea.
Dark Red = 60% + McCain
Yellow = 50-60% McCain
LIght Blue = 50-60% Obama
Dark Blue = 60% Obama
The African American area of St. Louis County (that Clay would have to get) is in the north.
From what I’m reading hear, Nixon and the Democrats as a whole would be silly to concede 6-2, but nobody will be very excited about saving Russ Carnahan. Why not axe him, but draw a different district as a fair fight? Vicky Hartzler, I’m looking at you.
The gray district picks up Hartzler in Harrisonville (south of KC), some KC suburbs and the democratic towns of St. Joseph and Columbia. A Republican might win it, but I expect Hartzler will not.
The ugliness of the lines is partially to get incumbents in the right districts, Graves (red, lives in far northwest corner) and Leutkemeyer (purple, lives south of Jefferson City) were the most annoying for the lines. Carnahan probably is in the green district with Akin, but I assume he would lose, someone more familiar with the area can probably comment better.
In this map the merge MO-02/03 would be the new MO-02, and the current MO-09 would be the new MO-03.
I would find to balance the new MO-02 with T Akin and R Carnahan to a EVEN rating. Without political data is not easy to tell if my district would be EVEN, but I would include some little changes until do it EVEN.