Virginia was really bad for democrats in 2010 (what state wasn’t?). The republicans picked up the 2nd, 5th, and 9th. As I am a democrat I usually make maps leaning that way so I decided to make a republican map. This is an 8-2-1 map and preserves the VRA district while weakening only Morgan Griffith and Cantor a bit. It’s not perfect but I think it pretty good. For those who don’t know, in the individual district pictures, light green is new district only, pink is old only, and the darkish green is areas in both.
District 1
Incumbent: Rob Wittman
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 176
Obama: 47.8%
McCain: 52.2%
Dem: 44.6%
GOP: 55.6%
White: 67.2 %
Black: 20.6 %
Hispanic: 6.3%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 45,520
Obama: 48.4%
McCain: 51.6%
Dem: 44.8%
GOP: 55.2%
White: 67.7 %
Black: 19.6 %
Hispanic: 6.8%
The 1st had to lose some population and so it moved a bit, but it is largely unchanged with the exception of taking up a little more of the suburbs in SE Virginia. Likely R
District 2:
Incumbent: Scot Rigell
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -26
Obama: 49.2%
McCain: 50.8%
Dem: 46.4%
GOP: 53.6%
White: 65.7%
Black: 20.4%
Hispanic: 6.0%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -70,482
Obama: 52.4%
McCain: 47.6%
Dem: 49.1%
GOP: 50.9%
White: 62.6%
Black: 21.7%
Hispanic: 6.9%
Nye was elected on the backs of two very poor republican congressmen. While he is young, attractive, and from Philadelphia (awww yeah), with this new district he would not have won in 08. Rigell’s biggest worry is the primary with his donations to Obama and all that jazz. This seat mainly took what district one gave up. Likely R
District 3:
Incumbent: Robert Scott
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -267
Obama: 82.2%
McCain: 17.8%
Dem: 76.9%
GOP: 23.1%
White: 28.9%
Black: 61.0%
Hispanic: 5.3%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -53,960
Obama: 75.7%
McCain: 24.3%
Dem: 28.7%
GOP: 71.3%
White: 36.2%
Black: 53.7%
Hispanic: 5.0%
Mr. Scott would probably be happy with this district as it gets more black and democratic. The district did have to pick up people, and it did this by snaking to as many areas of strength as possible. I have to say it is horrendous looking. The VRA mapping standards I have mixed feelings about… Yes they are good for protecting the rights of minorities. This though? Ugh. Safe D
District 4:
Incumbent: Randy Forbes
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -255
Obama: 48.8%
McCain: 51.2%
Dem: 46.4%
GOP: 53.6%
White: 61.7%
Black: 28%
Hispanic: 5.3%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target:
Obama: 51.0%
McCain: 49.0%
Dem: 48.2%
GOP: 51.8%
White: 57.8%
Black: 33.2%
Hispanic: 4.5%
Randy Forbes is unfortunately a skilled politician. While he wins in a current Obama district easily, I don’t think anyone in the GOP would mind his district getting a bit safer. The only serious challenge he had was his first against Louise Lucas in the 2001 special election. Likely R.
District 5:
Incumbent: Robert Hurt
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 122
Obama: 43.3%
McCain: 56.7%
Dem: 42.7%
GOP: 57.3%
White: 75.1%
Black: 19.5%
Hispanic: 2.7%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -39,711
Obama: 48.5%
McCain: 51.5%
Dem: 47.3%
GOP: 52.7%
White: 71.7%
Black: 21.9%
Hispanic: 3.1%
5 is the most important district. Perriello is not in this district, and half of his base in Charlottesville is gone. Included, however is Rick Boucher. Neither Boucher or Perriello has much to run, as they both have a lot of new constitutions AND the district is 5 points more republican than it was before. Safe R unless Perriello or Boucher run, than Likely R.
District 6:
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -43
Obama: 43.9%
McCain: 56.1%
Dem: 42.8%
GOP: 57.2%
White: 81.5%
Black: 10.9%
Hispanic: 4.2%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -23,285
Obama: 43.2%
McCain: 56.8%
Dem: 42.1%
GOP: 57.9%
White: 81.2%
Black: 11.1%
Hispanic: 4.3%
This close save district remains close to safe. Little changes, mostly just to fill in where other districts no longer are because it was lacking population. Likely R.
District 7:
Incumbent: Eric Cantor
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -601
Obama: 48.1%
McCain: 51.9%
Dem: 43.4%
GOP: 56.6%
White: 68.9%
Black: 14.5%
Hispanic: 8.6%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 25,081
Obama: 46.6%
McCain: 53.4%
Dem: 43.3%
GOP: 56.7%
White: 72.3%
Black: 16.7%
Hispanic: 4.8%
Snaking into Prince William to shore in place of 1 and 11, the partisan numbers actually don’t change all that much as the district loses parts of Richmond. I kept in the most conservative precincts because I figure that’s where Cantor lives. Cantor should be fine. Likely R
District 8:
Incumbent: Jim Moran
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 531
Obama: 68.2%
McCain: 31.8%
Dem: 67.7%
GOP: 33.3%
White: 53.9%
Black: 13.2%
Hispanic: 18.4%
Asian: 11.4%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -27,688
Obama: 68.2%
McCain: 31.8%
Dem: 67.7%
GOP: 33.3%
White: 54.4%
Black: 13.3%
Hispanic: 18.4%
Asian: 10.7%
Almost unchanged, just look at demographics. Safe D
District 9:
Incumbent: Morgan Griffiths
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -196
Obama: 43.4%
McCain: 56.6%
Dem: 45.7%
GOP: 54.3%
White: 88.8%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -72,764
Obama: 40.3%
McCain: 59.7%
Dem: 43.7%
GOP: 56.3%
White: 92%
The district had to gain people and Griffith’s home of Salem. The district got more democratic by taking in parts of Charlottesville and some of its suburbs to weaken cut Periello’s base in two. Periello resides in this district but might still choose to run in the 5th. Likely R, will move to Safe fairly soon as Griffith’s gains name recognition throughout the district.
District 10:
Incumbent: Frank Wolf
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -98
Obama: 49.4%
McCain: 50.6%
Dem: 48.1%
GOP: 51.9%
White: 66.9%
Hispanic: 10.7%
Asian: 13.5%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 144,282
Obama: 50.2%
McCain: 49.8%
Dem: 47.2%
GOP: 52.8%
White: 63.8%
Hispanic: 13.5%
Asian: 12.4%
Wolf has won for 30 years straight, usually with ease. His district is now a McCain district but it only moved by about .8%. Lean/Likely R
District 11:
Incumbent: Gerry Connolly
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 645
Obama: 55.6%
McCain: 44.4%
Dem: 50.5%
GOP: 49.5%
White: 54.4%
Black: 10.2%
Hispanic: 16.9%
Asian: 14.9%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 62,964
Obama: 56.6%
McCain: 43.4%
Dem: 52.3%
GOP: 47.7%
White: 55.0%
Black: 11.1%
Hispanic: 15.4%
Asian: 14.9%
This district becomes more swingy by taking away some liberal territory like Dale City and giving to Eric Cantor. Leans slightly D but I’d call it a toss-up. Connolly would have lost in 2010 with this district.
take the State Senate in November, the congressional map will protect Connolly (along with Hurt and Rigell, obviously). Even then, it seems iffy for Republicans to attempt a 9-2 map given Obama will be on the ballot and should perform well in NoVa.
Hopefully Dems have enough clout to prevent this from being enacted. The silver lining here that makes it hard to imagine that the delegation would end up 9-2:
1. The demographics continue to shift in Fairfax and Prince William Counties in Dems’ favor.
2. Eric Cantor may not want to swallow part of NoVA, particularly a Democratic part. He had a surprisingly weak showing this year against a no-name opponent in a historic GOP wave year running in what is, on paper at least, a pretty safe GOP district. Plus now candidates in VA-07 would have to go on the air in the very expensive DC media market instead of just the comparatively cheap markets of Richmond and Central Virginia in general.
Won’t the congressional lines be drawn before then?
And will the November elections be fought on new or old boundaries for the state legislature?
I have a lot of questions 🙂
Whatever happens, the Dems would be fools to accept a 9-2 map.
Anything less than 4 Dems should be thrown to the courts.
He’s focused much more on national issues than local issues. Having the number two House Republican in a district Sen. McCain won by four points in 2008 paints a huge target on his back, and there’s no way they jeopardize him that much.
There are also rumors Rep. Wolf may retire, in which case his seat would be very competitive. It’s also trending Democratic probably much too fast to make terribly more Republican.
I also think Rep. Connolly’s district is properly leans/likely Democratic. He was caught napping last year, and a cycle that bad for Democrats is atypical. In a neutral year, a district that then-Sen. Obama carried by better than 11 points is likely Democratic.
Rep. Rigell definitely doesn’t have a likely Republican seat there, either. Lean Republican, yes, but McCain only won it by a point and a half.
and this proposed map in light of VRA & court rulings.
1. The 2001 Map is clearly a racial gerrymander. Of course it got DOJ approval after a review. So it passed muster under VRA & Shaw rules. Yet its clearly a racial gerrymander IMO. That’s one of the problems with these reviews because courts have never defined what a gerrymander is. This VA map looks tame compared to IL & PA or MD.
2. This proposed map, 8R-3D, is also clearly a gerrymander in so many ways. Political and Racial. Yet it clearly will pass muster in my opinion because its a political creation. VA3 is no better or no worse then a dozen or so minority majority seats that have been in place for 10 years. One can argue that VRA is not protected under Section II because of its contorted lines but one can also see that it was left in place because its a political creation.
I believe the courts do not want to draw lines but rather leave that up to elected bodies. Its clear, to me at least, that racial gerrymanders are not required under Shaw but one can clearly see that are allowed to be drawn. IL4, VA3, NC12, NY12, NC1, FL3, FL16, TX18, TX30 and numerous other minority majority seats are clearly gerrymandered. NY12 is beyond all reasons of compactness and is clearly draw for poltical reason-the creation of a Puerto Rican racially dominated seat.
Several of those R+3, R+4 districts could elect Democrats. However I love seeing maps that push the limits!
In a bad way.
This is probably the best pro-Republican gerrymandering of Virginia I’ve seen. Maybe you can come up with a more pro-Republican tilt, but I think it takes a lot of factors into consideration.
It’s hard to make the 2nd much more Republican without causing problems for Forbes, who’s from Chesapeake and doesn’t want to give up his base to the 2nd. The 2nd still might be too swing for comfort but it’s also a hard district for Democrats to recruit from. They have NO BENCH in the area because of how Republican and gerrymandered the area is locally. Nye was a fluke.
Forbes is the same way. The district is swing but the Democratic bench is really week. It’s frustrating that these two districts have no strong Democrats while Perriello is stuck in Charlottesville.
Mostly because it snakes through Ft. Belvoir and Mt. Vernon to just barely take in my house in Ft. Hunt.
I’d give good money to be in Connolly’s district instead of Jim Moran. God I hate that Jackwagon!
“Virginia was really bad for democrats in 2010 (what state wasn’t?)”
Well, the states that weren’t were VT, CA, DE, MD, WV (WV-01 aside), MA, and HI. That’s all I can list for now.
because Dave’s App has a bug (or whatever) which has 0 votes in some Dem precincts in Loudoun County, and hence shows McCain winning the county.