Previously, I created a 24R-12D map predicting Texas redistricting. Since then, my reading of the tea leaves (mostly Aaron Pena’s party switch) has convinced me to revise my predictions somewhat. At the very least we can expect the state to pass a more Republican friendly map, which will almost certainly be challenged in the courts. Something close to the previously drawn map might be enacted if the state loses the court battle. This map then is more of a prediction of what the state might pass before the court battle.
The map has the following objectives:
1) Keep all incumbents with their base voters, except McCaul.
2) Draw a Republican safe district for McCaul.
3) Draw a new non-VRA Republican safe district for Farenthold in Corpus Christi.
4) Draw two new Republican safe districts in Harris and Johnson.
5) Draw two VRA swing districts for Canseco and Pena in south Texas.
6) Draw a new VRA Democratic safe district in DFW.
7) Draw a VRA Democratic safe district in Austin.
The data is based upon the 2010 census. For the partisan data, I matched the precincts that matched the 2008 test data precincts, and then I used regression models based upon the county level voting and demographics for each of the parties on the remaining precincts. Based upon residual analysis and validation data sets, this approach appears to be pretty accurate. Here are the maps with the pretty colors. (I used only nine colors that I duplicated each four times.)
The state.
Greater Houston.
DFW.
Central Texas.
The Valley.
El Paso.
CD 1: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 18%, Hisp 15%] Tyler based district for Gohmert.
CD 2: (Brown) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 50%, Bl 22%, Hisp 15%] Northeast Harris/Jefferson based district for Poe.
CD 3: (Silver) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 11%, Hisp 20%] Plano based district for Sam Johnson.
CD 4: (Indigo) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 11%, Hisp 14%] Rockwall based district for Hall.
CD 5: (Blue) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 55%, Bl 15%, Hisp 26%] Dallas based district for Hensarling.
CD 6: (Red) [33% Obama – 67% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 13%, Hisp 18%] Ellis County/Arlington based district for Barton.
CD 7: (Violet) [45% Obama – 55% McCain, Wh 53%, Bl 9%, Hisp 26%] Houston based district for Culberson. There is almost certainly a way to make this district safer than currently drawn.
CD 8: (Silver) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 74%, Bl 6%, Hisp 16%] Montgomery County based district from Brady.
CD 9: (Silver) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 29%, Hisp 43%] Houston based district for Al Green.
CD 10: (Brown). [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 70%, Bl 4%, Hisp 22%] Austin/West Texas district for McCaul. Previously, I drew McCaul to Johnson County. However, since I am no longer drawing West Texas districts for both Canseco and a VRA-protected Democrat, I had more real estate for McCaul to the West.
CD 11: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 3%, Hisp 33%] Midland based district for Conaway that now helps crack Austin.
CD 12: (Blue) [39% Obama – 61% McCain, Wh 56%, Bl 8%, Hisp 32%] Fort Worth based district for Granger.
CD 13: (Gren) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 6%, Hisp 21%] West Texas based district for Thornberry.
CD 14: (Red) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] Galveston based district for Paul.
CD 15: (Silver) [67% Obama – 33% McCain, Wh 9%, Bl 0%, Hisp 89%] Hidalgo County based district for Hinojosa that now goes into Cameron. In the previous 24-12 map, several comments noted that a similar district may be too Hispanic. However, based upon my reading of Lulac v. Perry, this was not established. If there is another court case that established that districts may not be too Hispanic, then please let me know.
CD 16: (Red) [66% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 2%, Hisp 82%] El Paso based district for Reyes.
CD 17: (Orange) [37% Obama – 63% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 15%, Hisp 21%] College Station/Waco based district for Flores that now goes East. Chet Edwards could make a comeback, but I doubt it.
CD 18: (Green) [84% Obama – 16% McCain, Wh 10%, Bl 45%, Hisp 40%] Houston based district for Jackson.
CD 19: (Violet) [27% Obama – 73% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 5%, Hisp 36%] Lubbock based district for Neugebauer.
CD 20: (Violet) [65% Obama – 35% McCain, Wh 17%, Bl 6%, Hisp 74%] San Antonio based district for Gonzalez.
CD 21: (Red) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 9%, Hisp 34%] San Antonio based district for Smith.
CD 22: (Orange) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 48%, Bl 13%, Hisp 24%] Sugar Land based district for Olson.
CD 23: (Indigo) [51% Obama – 49% McCain, Wh 28%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] North Bexar based district for Canseco. As noted previously, this district is very similar to his current district, and Democrats will likely win it back before the end of the decade.
CD 24: (Yellow) [38% Obama – 62% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 19%] Southlake/Coppell based district for Marchant. This district is significantly safer than his current district.
CD 25: (Orange) [64% Obama – 36% McCain, Wh 35%, Bl 11%, Hisp 50%] Austin based district for Doggett is now VRA protected.
CD 26: (Orange) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 67%, Bl 7%, Hisp 18%] Flower Mound/Denton based district for Burgess that no longer cracks the African American community in southeast Fort Worth.
CD 27: (Blue) [47% Obama – 53% McCain, Wh 31%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] New Hidalgo based VRA district for Pena. This district is obviously the biggest case against this map, because it retrogresses the old CD 27 and split Nueces County. If not ruled out by the courts though, it would be a huge Democratic target that they would have an excellent chance of winning before the end of the decade.
CD 28: (Brown) [73% Obama – 27% McCain, Wh 6%, Bl 0%, Hisp 93%] Laredo based district for Cuellar. Previously, I drew this one less safe. However, if the Republicans are going to pack, then they will almost certainly pack with Cuellar, who is probably in good shape no matter what.
CD 29: (Blue) [63% Obama – 37% McCain, Wh 12%, Bl 10%, Hisp 76%] Houston based district for Gene Green.
CD 30: (Indigo) [74% Obama – 26% McCain, Wh 21%, Bl 46%, Hisp 27%] Dallas based district for Eddie Bernice Johnson that now goes into the African American communities in East Arlington and Southeast Fort Worth.
CD 31: (Indigo) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 63%, Bl 7%, Hisp 22%] Williamson County based district for Carter.
CD 32: (Violet) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 22%] North Dallas based district for Sessions. Like CD 24, this district is significantly safer than his current district.
CD 33: (Green) [34% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 12%, Hisp 19%] New Johnson County based district for some Republican like Brian Birdwell.
CD 34: (Green) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 18%, Hisp 64%] New Dallas based VRA district for some Democrat like Royce West or Rafael Anchia.
CD 35: (Brown) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 45%, Bl 5%, Hisp 47%] Corpus Christi based district for Farenthold. It is no longer a VRA district since it extends north.
CD 36: (Yellow) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 51%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] New Harris County based district for some Republican like Dan Patrick or Debbie Riddle.
Overall 24 R – 10 D – 2 Swing.
I imagine that there are several Democrats worried about such a map as this one, and they are hoping the Obama DOJ and/or Lulac is prepared to prosecute such a map. While I do hope such a map is prosecuted, since it clear cracks Nueces, I actually think that this may be Nietzsche map for Democrats. In the previous 24-12 map, there was not a single swing district for Democrats to target, whereas in this 24-10-2 map there are two in South Texas. I am sure most Democrats would prefer 2 safe districts rather than 2 swing districts, which is the net difference between the two maps. However, Democrats would probably spend upwards of $2-$4 million every other year in South Texas on 2 districts that will likely turn Democratic eventually. That could dramatically improve the local parties in Hidalgo and Bexar, which is necessary for the state to turn blue. A similar example would be Martin Frost’s district. Yes, Democrats lost one of their best congressmen. However, many Dallas Democrats will point to the money spent on the 2004 CD-32 race as one of the reasons for Dallas turning solidly blue, which it is today. Furthermore, Dallas Democrats are likely to get back a district similar to Frost’s old district in this round of redistricting anyway. So, in the end, Dallas Democrats lost a powerful congressman for 6 years, while they rapidly built themselves into a powerful local party that claims most of the county positions. Meanwhile Republicans gained a backbencher named Kenny Marchant. Certainly having your backs up against a wall in swing districts is not the preferred method of party building. However, there is no doubt that well-built turnout operations in Bexar and Hidalgo would pay dividends at the top of the ticket.
[UPDATE 1] I should have mentioned this originally. I would be remiss in not giving lots of credit to Greg Wythe. His posts on Lloyd Doggett and Aaron Pena were inspirations for CDs 25 & 27 on this map. Also, rdelbov has been predicting a similar set of districts in South Texas for some time.
[UPDATE 2] I found this map at RRH, which is pretty similar but ever so slightly more friendly to Democrats. In any case, it leads me to believe even more that this is something the Texas GOP might try.
[UPDATE 3] Thanks to Kuff and Greg for the links to this diary. To those of you coming to this diary from their links, welcome.
I don’t think this is very plausible. I have a lot of respect for Texas House Speaker Joe Strauss, and he is smart enough to know that you cannot draw a district along the Mexican border like your grey district is.
That is racial gerrymandering. No court in the country, not even the Roberts Supreme Court would allow such a district to stand.
Why would Pena run for House? Is it because it’s the only chance he has to win something since there is no way he can win his district as a Republican?
I like several aspects of it and it very well could be predictive in many ways. Is it legal? Will be it fought over in court if you do it this way? This map or any other GOP map will end up in court. Bank on it.
1st let me say this. Have you been reading my posts? This is about as close to my various suggestions as to what the GOP should so as I have seen. Spot now and truely great work.
2nd If I had one little suggstion that would be to somehow get Conseco’s home town, not longer his residence, of Laredo in his district. You would have to swap out stuff in three seats to do it. Oh never mind I like your map as it is.
Is this map legal? I would give it a 100% aokay from VRA & legal precedence standpoint. Not a doubt , IMO, that this map would stand up to legal scrunity.
Too many hispanics in the valley district? There is a seat in NY with 3% white population. Who says there is a quota on the low or high side?
This map clearly maintains the VRA status of CD15, CD23, CD27 and CD28 in valley area. Plus CD29 is more hispanic and there is a new hispanic seat in DFW.
The hispanic % are apparently maintained in the Valley and this map is clearly no more of a gerrymander then NY, FL, NC, IL, AZ and VA is right now. This seat maintains current VRA seats and improves the chance of hispanics winning three more seats.
There is no logical judicial reason for hispanics not to be 80% plus in a seat when there is precedence for numerous other +80% minority seats in the USA. I note in CA you are a 77, 70, 65 and 62% hispanic seats that are literally side by side now so if someone’s contention is that seats should 69-69-69-69 hispanic instead of showing variations in numbers due to redistricting decisions there is ample precedence for packing hispanic voters in one seat.
So good work.