Author: blank

Previously, I created a 24R-12D map predicting Texas redistricting.  Since then, my reading of the tea leaves (mostly Aaron Pena’s party switch) has convinced me to revise my predictions somewhat.  At the very least we can expect the state to pass a more Republican friendly map, which will almost certainly be challenged in the courts.  Something close to the previously drawn map might be enacted if the state loses the court battle.  This map then is more of a prediction of what the state might pass before the court battle.  

The map has the following objectives:

1) Keep all incumbents with their base voters, except McCaul.

2) Draw a Republican safe district for McCaul.

3) Draw a new non-VRA Republican safe district for Farenthold in Corpus Christi.

4) Draw two new Republican safe districts in Harris and Johnson.

5) Draw two VRA swing districts for Canseco and Pena in south Texas.

6) Draw a new VRA Democratic safe district in DFW.

7) Draw a VRA Democratic safe district in Austin.

The data is based upon the 2010 census.  For the partisan data, I matched the precincts that matched the 2008 test data precincts, and then I used regression models based upon the county level voting and demographics for each of the parties on the remaining precincts.  Based upon residual analysis and validation data sets, this approach appears to be pretty accurate.  Here are the maps with the pretty colors.  (I used only nine colors that I duplicated each four times.)

The state.

Greater Houston.

DFW.

Central Texas.

The Valley.

El Paso.

CD 1: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 18%, Hisp 15%] Tyler based district for Gohmert.

CD 2: (Brown) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 50%, Bl 22%, Hisp 15%] Northeast Harris/Jefferson based district for Poe.

CD 3: (Silver) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 11%, Hisp 20%] Plano based district for Sam Johnson.

CD 4: (Indigo) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 11%, Hisp 14%] Rockwall based district for Hall.

CD 5: (Blue) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 55%, Bl 15%, Hisp 26%] Dallas based district for Hensarling.

CD 6: (Red) [33% Obama – 67% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 13%, Hisp 18%] Ellis County/Arlington based district for Barton.  

CD 7: (Violet) [45% Obama – 55% McCain, Wh 53%, Bl 9%, Hisp 26%] Houston based district for Culberson.  There is almost certainly a way to make this district safer than currently drawn.  

CD 8: (Silver) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 74%, Bl 6%, Hisp 16%] Montgomery County based district from Brady.

CD 9: (Silver) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 29%, Hisp 43%] Houston based district for Al Green.

CD 10: (Brown). [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 70%, Bl 4%, Hisp 22%] Austin/West Texas district for McCaul. Previously, I drew McCaul to Johnson County.  However, since I am no longer drawing West Texas districts for both Canseco and a VRA-protected Democrat, I had more real estate for McCaul to the West.

CD 11: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 3%, Hisp 33%] Midland based district for Conaway that now helps crack Austin.

CD 12: (Blue) [39% Obama – 61% McCain, Wh 56%, Bl 8%, Hisp 32%] Fort Worth based district for Granger.

CD 13: (Gren) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 6%, Hisp 21%] West Texas based district for Thornberry.  

CD 14: (Red) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] Galveston based district for Paul.

CD 15: (Silver) [67% Obama – 33% McCain, Wh 9%, Bl 0%, Hisp 89%] Hidalgo County based district for Hinojosa that now goes into Cameron.  In the previous 24-12 map, several comments noted that a similar district may be too Hispanic.  However, based upon my reading of Lulac v. Perry, this was not established.  If there is another court case that established that districts may not be too Hispanic, then please let me know.  

CD 16: (Red) [66% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 2%, Hisp 82%] El Paso based district for Reyes.

CD 17: (Orange) [37% Obama – 63% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 15%, Hisp 21%] College Station/Waco based district for Flores that now goes East. Chet Edwards could make a comeback, but I doubt it.

CD 18: (Green) [84% Obama – 16% McCain, Wh 10%, Bl 45%, Hisp 40%] Houston based district for Jackson.

CD 19: (Violet) [27% Obama – 73% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 5%, Hisp 36%] Lubbock based district for Neugebauer.

CD 20: (Violet) [65% Obama – 35% McCain, Wh 17%, Bl 6%, Hisp 74%] San Antonio based district for Gonzalez.

CD 21: (Red) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 9%, Hisp 34%] San Antonio based district for Smith.

CD 22: (Orange) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 48%, Bl 13%, Hisp 24%] Sugar Land based district for Olson.

CD 23: (Indigo) [51% Obama – 49% McCain, Wh 28%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] North Bexar based district for Canseco.  As noted previously, this district is very similar to his current district, and Democrats will likely win it back before the end of the decade.

CD 24: (Yellow) [38% Obama – 62% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 19%] Southlake/Coppell based district for Marchant. This district is significantly safer than his current district.

CD 25: (Orange) [64% Obama – 36% McCain, Wh 35%, Bl 11%, Hisp 50%] Austin based district for Doggett is now VRA protected.

CD 26: (Orange) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 67%, Bl 7%, Hisp 18%] Flower Mound/Denton based district for Burgess that no longer cracks the African American community in southeast Fort Worth.

CD 27: (Blue) [47% Obama – 53% McCain, Wh 31%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] New Hidalgo based VRA district for Pena.  This district is obviously the biggest case against this map, because it retrogresses the old CD 27 and split Nueces County. If not ruled out by the courts though, it would be a huge Democratic target that they would have an excellent chance of winning before the end of the decade.

CD 28: (Brown) [73% Obama – 27% McCain, Wh 6%, Bl 0%, Hisp 93%] Laredo based district for Cuellar.  Previously, I drew this one less safe.  However, if the Republicans are going to pack, then they will almost certainly pack with Cuellar, who is probably in good shape no matter what.  

CD 29: (Blue) [63% Obama – 37% McCain, Wh 12%, Bl 10%, Hisp 76%] Houston based district for Gene Green.

CD 30: (Indigo) [74% Obama – 26% McCain, Wh 21%, Bl 46%, Hisp 27%] Dallas based district for Eddie Bernice Johnson that now goes into the African American communities in East Arlington and Southeast Fort Worth.

CD 31: (Indigo) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 63%, Bl 7%, Hisp 22%] Williamson County based district for Carter.

CD 32: (Violet) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 22%] North Dallas based district for Sessions.   Like CD 24, this district is significantly safer than his current district.

CD 33: (Green) [34% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 12%, Hisp 19%] New Johnson County based district for some Republican like Brian Birdwell.  

CD 34: (Green) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 18%, Hisp 64%] New Dallas based VRA district for some Democrat like Royce West or Rafael Anchia.

CD 35: (Brown) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 45%, Bl 5%, Hisp 47%] Corpus Christi based district for Farenthold.  It is no longer a VRA district since it extends north.

CD 36: (Yellow) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 51%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] New Harris County based district for some Republican like Dan Patrick or Debbie Riddle.

Overall 24 R – 10 D – 2 Swing.

I imagine that there are several Democrats worried about such a map as this one, and they are hoping the Obama DOJ and/or Lulac is prepared to prosecute such a map. While I do hope such a map is prosecuted, since it clear cracks Nueces, I actually think that this may be Nietzsche map for Democrats.    In the previous 24-12 map, there was not a single swing district for Democrats to target, whereas in this 24-10-2 map there are two in South Texas.  I am sure most Democrats would prefer 2 safe districts rather than 2 swing districts, which is the net difference between the two maps.  However, Democrats would probably spend upwards of $2-$4 million every other year in South Texas on 2 districts that will likely turn Democratic eventually.  That could dramatically improve the local parties in Hidalgo and Bexar, which is necessary for the state to turn blue.  A similar example would be Martin Frost’s district.  Yes, Democrats lost one of their best congressmen.  However, many Dallas Democrats will point to the money spent on the 2004 CD-32 race as one of the reasons for Dallas turning solidly blue, which it is today.  Furthermore, Dallas Democrats are likely to get back a district similar to Frost’s old district in this round of redistricting anyway.  So, in the end, Dallas Democrats lost a powerful congressman for 6 years, while they rapidly built themselves into a powerful local party that claims most of the county positions.  Meanwhile Republicans gained a backbencher named Kenny Marchant.  Certainly having your backs up against a wall in swing districts is not the preferred method of party building.  However, there is no doubt that well-built turnout operations in Bexar and Hidalgo would pay dividends at the top of the ticket.

[UPDATE 1] I should have mentioned this originally.  I would be remiss in not giving lots of credit to Greg Wythe.  His posts on Lloyd Doggett and Aaron Pena were inspirations for CDs 25 & 27 on this map.  Also, rdelbov has been predicting a similar set of districts in South Texas for some time.

[UPDATE 2] I found this map at RRH, which is pretty similar but ever so slightly more friendly to Democrats.  In any case, it leads me to believe even more that this is something the Texas GOP might try.

[UPDATE 3] Thanks to Kuff and Greg for the links to this diary.  To those of you coming to this diary from their links, welcome.  

Now that we know that the Texas House and Governor’s mansion will be safely in the hands of the Republican Party during redistricting, I decided to draw a map using Dave Bradlee’s application that predicts what the Republicans might do.  (I used 1.0 instead of 2.0 because I had a previously drawn map that I could easily modify in 1.0.  If there is an easy way to convert a 1.0 map to a 2.0 map, then please let me know in the comments.) Again to be clear, this is a prediction of what I think the new map might look like, not what I hope happens.  I really wish I was sharing a more liberally friendly map than this one.  

It’s also a pretty boring map with the following objectives:

1) Keep all incumbents with their base voters, except McCaul.

2) Draw a Republican safe district for McCaul.

3) Draw a non-VRA Republican safe district using the suburban-exurban part of Nueces for Farenthold.

4) Draw a non-VRA Republican safe district using the Northern part of Bexar for Canseco.

5) Draw a new Republican safe district in Harris.

6) Draw a new VRA Democratic safe district in DFW.

7) Draw two new VRA Democratic safe districts from the current 23 and 27.

I suspect objectives (1)-(5) are real Republican goals, and objectives (6)-(7) will likely be required by the Obama DOJ.  Here are the maps with the pretty colors.

The state.

Greater Houston.

DFW.

Central Texas.

The Valley.

El Paso.

CD 1: (Blue) [31% Obama – 68% McCain, Wh 66%, Bl 19%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 12%] Tyler based district for Gohmert.

CD 2: (Dark Green) [41% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 54%, Bl 19%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 24%] Northeast Harris based district for Poe.

CD 3: (Purple) [43% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Nat 0%, Asn 12% Hisp 17%] Plano based district for Sam Johnson.

CD 4: (Red) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 12%, Nat 1%, Asn 2% Hisp 19%] Rockwall based district for Hall.

CD 5: (Yellow) [42% Obama – 57% McCain, Wh 55%, Bl 17%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 25%] Dallas based district for Hensarling.

CD 6: (Teal) [43% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 54%, Bl 9%, Nat 0%, Asn 7% Hisp 28%] Dallas based district for Sessions.  Sessions district now goes up into Collin County making him significantly safer. (I switched the numbers on 6 and 32, because the color contrast was poor with 4.  It’s strictly a visual effect, and I don’t expect the numbers to switch.)

CD 7: (Silver) [42% Obama – 57% McCain, Wh 50%, Bl 7%, Nat 0%, Asn 8% Hisp 34%] Houston based district for Culberson.  This district is a little safer than his current district.  

CD 8: (Violet) [25% Obama – 74% McCain, Wh 76%, Bl 7%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 14%] Montgomery County based district from Brady.

CD 9: (Sky Blue) [76% Obama – 24% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 39%, Nat 0%, Asn 10% Hisp 35%] Houston based district for Al Green.

CD 10: (Hot Pink). [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 68%, Bl 9%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 18%] Austin/Waco/Johnson Country district for McCaul. Really, the only challenge in this map was McCaul. He lives in liberal Austin, which is a few hundred miles away from his base voters in one of the conservative parts of Harris County.  Furthermore, because of population growth in both Harris County and Austin, there is no way to keep this district together for him.  In fact, I used that part of Harris to draw the new Republican district mentioned in objective (5). A congressperson does not have to live in his/her district, so McCaul could hypothetically run for the Harris district.  However, there are several state legislators in that district, who are looking up, and he could get hit with a primary.  So, I really don’t think living that far away from a district is practical.  Hence, I drew him in with Johnson County, which is very Republican and is not home to a congressperson.  With Waco in this district, there is a chance Chet Edwards could run against him, but I doubt it.

CD 11: (Lawn Green) [25% Obama – 75% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 5%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 34%] Midland based district for Conaway.

CD 12: (Steel Blue) [36% Obama – 63% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 5%, Nat 1%, Asn 3% Hisp 32%] Fort Worth based district for Granger.

CD 13: (Dark Salmon) [25% Obama – 74% McCain, Wh 70%, Bl 5%, Nat 1%, Asn 1% Hisp 22%] West Texas based district for Thornberry.  This one though now spreads east and has a new conservative base in Wichita Falls.  

CD 14: (Olive) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 56%, Bl 13%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 27%] Galveston based district for Paul.

CD 15: (Orange) [68% Obama – 31% McCain, Wh 9%, Bl 0%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 89%] Hidalgo County based district for Hinojosa.  This district is much more compact.  [UPDATE: Several comments have noted that this district may be too Hispanic.  The 15 was after all one of the districts that the courts redrew in 2006.  That could very well be true.  This issue could easily be resolved by redrawing 15 and 28 (and possibly the new 33) similar to how they are drawn now to reduce the Hispanic influence in 15.  I considered doing this myself, but I decided against it.  One reason for my decision was that I ran out of time to work on this.  Two, I actually decided that the GOP could argue that (a) this district is compact and within a single community, (b) all of the neighboring districts are safely VRAs too, and (c) breaking up this district would break up a community, which is against the spirit of the VRA.  That’s not a great argument, but Justice Kennedy might buy it.  Since it gives the GOP a chance to weaken the Democrats in 28 almost down to a swing district, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made this argument. (See description of 28 below.)  Nonetheless, even if it doesn’t go as predicted, I suspect they will go with a fix by redrawing 15 and 28.]

CD 16: (Lime) [65% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 14%, Bl 3%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 81%] El Paso based district for Reyes.

CD 17: (Midnight Blue) [33% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 15%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 18%] College Station based district for Flores. This district was moved out of Johnson County and McClennan County to make 10 friendlier for McCaul.

CD 18: (Yellow) [75% Obama – 24% McCain, Wh 17%, Bl 32%, Nat 0%, Asn 4% Hisp 46%] Houston based district for Jackson.

CD 19: (Yellow Green) [26% Obama – 74% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 6%, Nat 1%, Asn 1% Hisp 32%] Lubbock based district for Neugebauer.

CD 20: (Pink) [65% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 4%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 78%] San Antonio based district for Gonzalez.

CD 21: (Maroon) [42% Obama – 57% McCain, Wh 68%, Bl 4%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 24%] San Antonio/Austin based district for Smith.

CD 22: (Chocolate) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 8%, Nat 0%, Asn 12% Hisp 27%] Sugar Land based district for Olson.

CD 23: (Cyan) [33% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 3%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 29%] North Bexar based district for Canseco.  As noted previously, this district is much more Anglo and Republican than the current VRA 23.

CD 24: (Indigo) [41% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 63%, Bl 8%, Nat 1%, Asn 8% Hisp 18%] Southlake/Coppell based district for Marchant.

CD 25: (Violet Red) [69% Obama – 30% McCain, Wh 41%, Bl 10%, Nat 0%, Asn 5% Hisp 41%] Austin based district for Doggett.

CD 26: (Grey) [34% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 72%, Bl 7%, Nat 1%, Asn 3% Hisp 16%] Flower Mound/Denton based district for Burgess.

CD 27: (Spring Green) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 53%, Bl 6%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 38%] Greater Corpus Christi based district for Farenthold.  It is no longer a VRA district since it extends north.

CD 28: (Plum) [53% Obama – 46% McCain, Wh 24%, Bl 3%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 72%] Laredo based district for Cuellar.  This district however is not nearly as safe as it is today even though is still safely a VRA.  It could be a Republican target, but Cuellar is a staple in Laredo, so I doubt he is going anywhere.

CD 29: (Dark Sea Green) [70% Obama – 30% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 22%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 63%] Houston based district for Gene Green.

CD 30: (Light Salmon) [76% Obama – 23% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 29%, Nat 0%, Asn 2% Hisp 54%] Dallas based district for Eddie Bernice Johnson.

CD 31: (Khaki) [43% Obama – 55% McCain, Wh 61%, Bl 12%, Nat 1%, Asn 4% Hisp 21%] Williamson County based district for Carter.

CD 32: (Orange Red) [39% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 14%, Nat 0%, Asn 3% Hisp 18%] Ellis County based district for Barton.  (See comment about switching 6 and 32 above.)

CD 33: (Slate Blue) [58% Obama – 41% McCain, Wh 19%, Bl 2%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 78%] Corpus Christi/South Padre Island based district for Ortiz, possibly Ortiz Junior if Ortiz Senior is ready to retire after losing.

CD 34: (Lime Green) [61% Obama – 38% McCain, Wh 21%, Bl 8%, Nat 0%, Asn 1% Hisp 69%] South Bexar/Border based VRA district for Rodriguez.

CD 35: (Orchid) [66% Obama – 33% McCain, Wh 29%, Bl 29%, Nat 0%, Asn 5% Hisp 36%] New Dallas-Fort Worth based VRA district for some Democrat like Royce West or Rafael Anchia. [UPDATE: curiousgeorge noted that this may not be a VRA district.  That is probably true.  After all, it looks a lot like Martin Frost’s old 24th district that the courts allowed DeLay to butcher in his mid-decade redistricting. Nonetheless, I still believe that there will be a new Democratic district in DFW.  Otherwise, at least one Republican would be seriously weakened.]

CD 36: (Dark Orange) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 61%, Bl 7%, Nat 0%, Asn 7% Hisp 24%] New Harris County based district for some Republican like Dan Patrick or Debbie Riddle.

Overall 24 R – 12 D.

[UPDATE: I corrected some minor typos, added racial percentages, and addressed the issue of 15 being too Hispanic.  There are some other minor issues with the map, but I think that the overview is about right.  Specifically, we’ll see a 24 R-12 D map with the Democrats representing the following: 3 from Greater Houston, 2 from DFW, 2 from the Valley, 1 from El Paso, 1 from Austin, 1 from San Antonio, 1 from Laredo, and 1 from South San Antonio to the border.]