Author: Answer Guy

This is the final installment in a four-part series about the 2010 Democratic Primary for States’ Attorney for Baltimore City in Maryland.

Why is this race notable? Well, the result, an upset win by challenger Gregg Bernstein over incumbent States’ Attorney Patricia Jessamy, challenged a lot of widely-held assumptions about racial dynamics in large cities and how one can win elections in the City of Baltimore and perhaps other similar jurisdictions.

Not to rehash the introduction, but since it’s been a while now… Jessamy had been pretty popular among the Black majority in Baltimore but was strongly disliked by the law enforcement community and had a feud with then-Mayor Martin O’Malley about police tactics. She was re-elected in 2006 with 71.52% of the vote against an largely unknown opponent in the Democratic primary named Aaron Fogleman who ran a minimal campaign. Fogleman nonetheless won nearly half of the White vote, and about 15% of the Black vote.  

So not many people gave Gregg Bernstein much of a chance when the campaign got off to a slow start in the spring, but the skeptics, myself included, were proven wrong…  

For a broad overview of what’s going on here, check out Part 1. For a summary of the methodology I used and what I looked for, check out Part 2. For a whole bunch of data about Baltimore elections and my attempt to put them in the context of what I expected to see when I looked at the election that was the subject of this series, check out Part 3.  

To refresh your memory, I classified Baltimore’s voting precincts (based on data from Dave’s App, which unfortunately is out of date b/c the city did a lot of precinct consolidation between 2000 and 2006) into six categories and twenty zones:

By Category:

Type I: Red on the map. More than 70% White, less than 5% Hispanic and Asian population. Mostly found on the periphery of town. The Federal Hill, Mt. Washington, Roland Park, and Hampden areas consisted mostly of such precincts.

2006: Jessamy 7311 (51%), Fogleman 6932 (49%)

2010: Bernstein 10127 (79%), Jessamy 2447 (19%), Lansey 290 (2%)

Type II: Green on the map. More than 5% Hispanic. (Most of these were predominantly white, but two were otherwise predominantly black.) The lion’s share of these precincts were in Fells Point, Canton, or Highlandtown.

2006: Jessamy 1649 (50%), Fogleman 1630 (50%)

2010: Bernstein 2290 (77%), Jessamy 595 (20%), Lansey (3%)

Type III: Yellow on the map. More than 5% Asian. (Most of these were predominantly white, but two were otherwise predominantly black.) Most of these precincts were found in Downtown/Midtown or Charles Village, with a few that marginally qualified in Hampden.

2006: Jessamy 2331 (55%), Fogleman 1871 (45%)

2010: Bernstein 2994 (75%), Jessamy 898 (23%), Lansey 76 (2%)

Type IV: Gray on the map. None the above, but with more Whites than Blacks. They were scattered across town, with a cluster of them is in Northeast Baltimore.

2006: Jessamy 1706 (64%), Fogleman 976 (36%)

2010: Bernstein 1287 (58%), Jessamy 851 (38%), Lansey 91 (4%)

Type V: Teal Blue on the map. None of the above, more Blacks than Whites but Black population less than 70%. They are also scattered across town, and Northeast Baltimore has a cluster of them.

2006: Jessamy 3438 (71%), Fogleman 1386 (29%)

2010: Bernstein 1848 (48%), Jessamy 1837 (48%), Lansey 139 (4%)

Type VI: Blue on the map. More than 70% Black, less than 5% Hispanic and Asian. The West Baltimore, East Baltimore, and Forest Park/Arlington zones consist exclusively of such precincts; the Near West Baltimore, Frankford, Govans/Northwood, Waverly/Montebello, and Park Heights zones consist mostly of such precincts.    

2006: Jessamy 33413 (83%), Fogleman 6841 (17%)

2010: Jessamy 19200 (66%), Bernstein 8760 (30%), Lansey 1324 (5%)

By Neighborhood:

[Note: Part 3 of this series contains more detailed descriptions of each of these clusters of neighborhoods than can be found here.]

Brooklyn/Cherry Hill [dark blue]:

2006: Jessamy 1131 (71%), Fogleman 473 (29%)

2010: Jessamy 705 (49%), Bernstein 633 (44%), Lansey 104 (7%)

Traditionally working class and racially mixed south Baltimore sums up Pat Jessamy’s whole problem in this re-election, even though she retained a bigger share of her 2006 vote total here than in the city as a whole. It was also the best-performing region for little-discussed third candidate Cheryl Lansey, also an African-American female, accused of being a spoiler candidate by Jessamy supporters.  

Federal Hill/Locust Point [dark green]:

2006: Fogleman 1013 (55%), Jessamy 823 (45%)

2010: Bernstein 1759 (86%), Jessamy 231 (11%), Lansey 58 (3%)

The whitest and generally most Republican-voting part of town (in 2006, Ehrlich topped 40% here while Steele topped 35%; in 2008, McCain fell just short of 35%, all very high for Baltimore) had already thought so little of Pat Jessamy that they voted for someone who barely campaigned over her in 2006. Bernstein swept all 10 of it’s precincts; one precinct, 24-02, gave the incumbent 4 votes of 90, her worst showing in the entire city. In context these numbers are unsurprising. But 11% is really low, and, even worse for Jessamy, this was one of only three zones to have a higher vote total in the 2010 primary than in the 2006 one.

Southwest Baltimore [purple]:

2006: Jessamy 637 (54%), Fogleman 542 (46%)

2010: Bernstein 793 (70%), Jessamy 298 (26%), Lansey 47 (4%)

This area is another part of town that tells the story in miniature. Jessamy went from carrying six of its nine precincts to carrying only one, and even in that one (20-11) she went from 62% of the vote to 46%. The big thumbs down came from precinct 25-04, one of only five precincts to be carried by John McCain.    

Edmondson [red]:

2006: Jessamy 2840 (80%), Fogleman 691 (20%)

2010: Jessamy 1668 (61%), Bernstein 963 (35%), Lansey 96 (4%)

And here’s where we learn that it was a multi-racial coalition that brought down Pat Jessamy.

Jessamy carried every precinct here but except for 28-15…but these areas supported black candidates over white ones big time (84% for Obama in his ’08 primary, 81% for Mfume in his ’06 Senate primary) in every previous election I looked at. While some of these precincts actually have sizable a sizable white minority, the ones further away from the county line don’t, and Bernstein was still getting in the 30% range in most such precincts, and that’s worth noting.

West Baltimore [mustard yellow]:

2006: Jessamy 5364 (85%), Fogleman 944 (15%)

2010: Jessamy 3056 (69%), Bernstein 1112 (25%), Lansey 241 (5%)

This one is partially about the ability of Bernstein to get at least some measure of the vote even in an area like this one (and this was his worst showing in town) where nearly everyone is both black and poor and suspicion of law enforcement tends to run high. But it’s mostly about the lack of turnout. Bernstein got 200 more votes than Fogleman did, which isn’t much; the real story is Pat Jessamy coming out of this area with a net loss of nearly 2,300 votes. That hurts.

Near West Baltimore [teal blue]:

2006: Jessamy 2539 (80%), Fogleman 641 (20%)

2010: Jessamy 1551 (64%), Bernstein 750 (31%), Lansey 116 (5%)

Same as above, but shifted five points since there are some urban gentrifiers here. I wondered if their effect would an amplification of a shift away from Jessamy. It did not.  

Downtown & Midtown [gray]:

2006: Jessamy 1107 (56%), Fogleman 874 (44%)

2010: Bernstein 1297 (60%), Jessamy (36%), Lansey 75 (3%)

I wonder if the demographics of this area may have shifted some in four years as it covers the booming Harbor East district. Either way, it went from a set of precincts that ranged between being indifferent towards and relatively friendly towards the incumbent turned hostile. In 2006 Jessamy carried 13 of these 15 precincts, tying in another, and losing one (11-05) by two votes. This time, Bernstein carried 11 of them. Even worse for Jessamy, this was the other area that cast substantially more votes in the 2010 primary than the one four years earlier, which possibly reflects the revitalization of central Baltimore vis-a-vis the rest of the city. (Interesting side note: Bernstein’s people were all over Baltimore Pride events this summer; Bernstein cleaned up in four precincts with large gay populations in Mt. Vernon and Bolton Hill that were some of Jessamy’s best predominantly white precincts in 2006.)  

East Baltimore [gray-blue]:

2006: Jessamy 3822 (85%), Fogleman 666 (15%)

2010: Jessamy 2224 (69%), Bernstein 859 (27%), Lansey 157 (5%)

See West Baltimore above. Proportions are almost exactly the same. The presence of Johns Hopkins Medical School is probably the main difference.  

Fells Point & Canton [aqua]:

2006: Fogleman 1219 (56%), Jessamy 953 (44%)

2010: Bernstein 1726 (83%), Jessamy 306 (15%), Lansey 58 (3%)

Much like Federal Hill, except with a larger Hispanic population and somewhat more liberal political outlook as a whole (it’s around 4-5 points more liberal and more Democratic than Fed Hill, Obama overperformed a little as well.) However, it had giving Jessamy her worst showing in 2006. And it was the site of the infamous Zach Sowers beating a few years back, in which Jessamy’s spokeswoman was berated for insensitivity to the family and community, so Jessamy had to know she was going to get crushed here.

Highlandtown [magenta]:

2006: Fogleman 970 (52%), Jessamy 895 (48%)

2010: Bernstein 1241 (80%), Jessamy 247 (16%), Lansey 56 (4%)

This southeastern part of town has more of a working class flavor than touristy Fells Point and yuppie haven Canton. Much like the East Side of Baltimore County (Dundalk, Essex) it borders, it’s got a reputation for Reagan Democrats none too fond of voting for black candidates. It’s where Barack Obama had his worst showing in town (Hillary Clinton got 57% of the primary vote, nearly 15 points more than any in other part of the city; John McCain got 37% of the general election vote, his best showing in the city) in 2008. Just to confuse everyone though, Pat Jessamy did carry the area in 2006, albeit barely. In 2010, Highlandtown was not Pat Jessamy’s worst area…but it was plenty bad enough at an even 16%.  

Frankford [lime green]:

2006: Jessamy 3076 (81%), Fogleman 738 (19%)

2010: Jessamy 1753 (59%), Bernstein 1059 (36%), Lansey 169 (6%)

Predominantly black (middle-class black specifically) but not monolithic, Jessamy lost 22 points and 1,300 votes here. A decent chunk of voters took the third option with Cheryl Lansey here, and in this area she was stronger where Jessamy was also strong as opposed to where Bernstein was strong, suggesting that the spoiler factor may have been key. Jessamy won 13 of the 15 precincts here, but mostly with numbers in the 50s and 60s rather than the 70s and 80s she got last time around.    

Northeast Baltimore [light blue]:

2006: Jessamy 3467 (61%), Fogleman 2172 (39%)

2010: Bernstein 2806 (60%), Jessamy 1701 (35%), Lansey 160 (3%)

Here’s one battleground where the Bernstein campaign did some heavy lifting, the area’s voting patterns doing a near-perfect 180 degree turn. Jessamy carried 18 of 22 precincts in her 2006 re-election, and Bernstein flipped all but two of them this time out for 20 of 22. There are more whites than blacks here, but neither Mfume (51% in his Senate primary) nor Obama (71% primary, 79% general) had that much trouble getting votes in this part of town; if I had to credit one part of town with being the tipping point, I’d probably cite this one as the most pivotal.

Govans/Northwood [peach]:

2006: Jessamy 5137 (82%), Fogleman 1124 (18%)

2010: Jessamy 2695 (62%), Bernstein 1524 (35%), Lansey 147 (3%)

This is where Pat Jessamy lives. Ouch. If she had gotten everyone in her own neighborhood who voted for her in 2006 to do so again, she would have squeaked by. Instead, she lost 400 votes to the white challenger, 147 votes to a random black challenger, and 1895 votes – enough by itself to put her over the top – to non-turnout. (Some people might have moved away; we’ll learn more when the new Census data emerges.) This was, incidentally, the second biggest turnout drop in the city after Park Heights; my postulate about middle-class black areas like this one holding turnout better between elections than poor areas turns out not to have held, at least in Baltimore.  

Waverly/Montebello [olive]:

2006: Jessamy 2547 (81%), Fogleman 590 (19%)

2010: Jessamy 1465 (60%), Bernstein 843 (35%), Lansey 114 (5%)

There are 12 precincts in this zone. Jessamy carried all of them both times. But instead of racking up numbers between 73-88%, they ranged from 51-70% instead. Couple that with the dropped turnout, and it spelled trouble for the incumbent as well as evidencing the fact that it wasn’t just a matter of Bernstein racking up the big numbers in white parts of town.

Roland Park, Guilford & Homeland [orange]:

2006: Jessamy 2005 (52%), Fogleman 1880 (48%)

2010: Bernstein 3082 (85%), Jessamy 534 (15%), Lansey 25 (1%)

In addition to being the wealthiest part of Baltimore, this is Bernstein’s home turf and does it ever show. Previously somewhat less hostile to Jessamy (it’s mostly liberals, and there’s just not much crime up there to complain about) than other white parts of town..one of their own put up huge numbers. (If Northwood had done for Jessamy what Roland Park did for Bernstein, Bernstein would have lost.) Bernstein’s 37 point improvement on Fogleman in this zone put him over the top.  

Charles Village [light green]:

2006: Jessamy 1000 (64%), Fogleman 554 (36%)

2010: Bernstein 873 (63%), Jessamy 462 (34%) Lansey 44 (3%)

The other big 180 reversal. It’s relatively integrated and chock full of liberals of all colors (they liked Mfume and loved Obama..but black Republican Michael Steele saw perhaps his worst numbers in the entire state there) that match the brightly colored houses that famously line some of its blocks. Jessamy won a comfortable 63% of the vote there last time.  

What happened here? Well, early this summer, an unarmed Hopkins graduate student was murdered in a robbery in broad daylight on a Charles Village street thought to be reasonably safe by a guy with a rap sheet a mile long. And people were pissed. Jessamy went to a community memorial for the student and got, to put it mildly, a very chilly reception. It was perhaps the flashpoint of the election.

Hampden [indigo]:

2006: Fogleman 937 (56%), Jessamy 733 (44%)

2010: Bernstein 1460 (87%), Jessamy 200 (12%), Lansey 21 (1%)

Bernstein did even better here than in neighboring Roland Park, not that he needed to do much to convince Hampdenites to not vote for Jessamy. The area has fewer blacks per capita than anywhere else in town and has long had a reputation for hostility towards black politicians (and towards non-politicians as well) although the reality is now somewhat more complicated by an influx of new residents and a softening of some old attitudes. Barack Obama found more support (56% primary, 72% general) than one would expect based on the old stereotypes.

But, yeah, everybody knew going in Pat Jessamy was not going to find much support here. I might have expected more than 12% though; Jessamy only got 20% in precinct 12-03, which is quite a bit more diverse than the rest of the area. Aaron Fogleman did about that well in West Baltimore and he barely campaigned. Also: note how few votes for Lansey there were here and in other mostly white areas.

Mount Washington/Cross Country [light-yellow]:

2006: Jessamy 2616 (57%), Fogleman 1988 (43%)

2010: Bernstein 2653 (73%), Jessamy 921 (25%), Lansey 74 (2%)

Pretty dramatic turnaround here too. In 2006 Jessamy won 9 of 11 precincts. The other two are part of an three-precinct [27-64, 27-65, and 27-66] cluster consisting largely of Orthodox Jews in the city’s NW corner; in general elections, McCain won all three precincts, Ehrlich won two of them, and all three were strong for Hillary in the ’08 primary.) This time around, Jessamy only carried a single precinct, 28-01, whose demographics are quite different than the others in this zone. Bernstein cleaned up in the Orthodox zone but almost as well in the rest of Cross County and even in more liberal Mount Washington Village.    

Park Heights [yellow-green]:

2006: Jessamy 2821 (82%), Fogleman 618 (18%)

2010: Jessamy 1578 (70%), Bernstein 597 (26%), Lansey 93 (4%)

The good news for Jessamy is that she held a higher percentage of her 2006 vote here than anywhere else in the city, and it’s the only part of town where Bernstein actually failed to match Fogleman’s vote total from 2006. The bad news is that turnout in this largely struggling area dropped 34% from 2006. So Jessamy’s vote margin here was nonetheless cut in half.  

Forest Park/Arlington [pink]:

2006: Jessamy 5720 (85%), Fogleman 975 (15%)

2010: Jessamy 3459 (71%), Bernstein 1265 (26%), Lansey 156 (3%)

This biggest redoubt of black middle-class voters in the city were more loyal to Pat Jessamy than her own neighbors further east, or, indeed, than anywhere else in the city. Furthermore, unlike many largely black areas, they didn’t even give Cheryl Lansey much support. But 30% fewer Forest Park-Arlington residents turned out this time around, and that spelled nearly 2,300 votes out of this area.  

So…in the final analysis, where did all this number crunching get me? I found three things that I think mattered and three things that I think didn’t.

1. Whites voted as a bloc for Bernstein in a way that they had not done for any other candidate in any of the several races I examined for this diary. I estimate Jessamy’s 2010 level of support among Whites to be somewhere around 15%, as compared with about 50% for Jessamy in 2006, about 35% for Mfume in 2006, and about 55% for Obama in the 2008 primary. I created a mathematical model whereby Shifting just 3% of the vote in the non-Type VI precincts back to Jessamy across the board (which still leaves her support among whites down near 20%, mind you) would have been enough to get her re-elected by 87 votes.

2. The deterioration of support for Jessamy among Blacks was also a contributing factor. She lost 16 points of support in Type VI precincts. I created a model whereby Jessamy’s support in Type VI precincts was raised while everything else (including the surprisng result, even knowing my source data had some noise in it, whereby Bernstein got more votes than Jessamy in Type V precincts) constant. Even when taking into account depressed black turnout (which I’ll discuss below) in a scenario when her support in the Type VI precincts is raised from 66% to 69%, still a 13-point drop, Jessamy gets re-elected by the narrowest of margins.

3. Turnout among Black voters was an issue. If the relative share of the total vote the 20 zones had held constant from 2006, even with the 2010 candidates keeping the same proportion of votes from each zone (in other words, this time I locked in Jessamy’s dismal performance in White areas and reduced performance in Black areas) the result would be reversed, with Jessamy winning over Bernstein 49-47. (I didn’t do the math on 2008, because it became obvious to me quickly that that electorate would have chosen Jessamy over Bernstein as well.)  

And three things I didn’t find to be important in the end:

1. The Lansey-as-spoiler factor. Certainly Jessamy supporters were angry with her, before and especially after the election. It’s hard to model with any confidence. Lansey’s vote total of 2011 was less than the 1456 vote margin between Bernstein and Jessamy. I know little about Cheryl Lansey and couldn’t figure out what her agenda was, other than not liking Jessamy, so that makes it tough to read voter minds. That most of her votes came from black neighborhoods suggests that Jessamy supporters had a reason to be unhappy. However, a Bernstein supporter could argue that her presence on the ballot as a third option gave people dissatisfied with Jessamy but reluctant to support a white challenger an easy way out of their dilemma and that at least some of those voters would have opted either for Bernstein or for a blank ballot. Even without Bernstein getting a single one of the the Lansey votes, Jessamy would have needed 72.5% of those votes to win. Since that figure was above her regular numbers in all but her very best precincts, I don’t think she was the difference in the election.  

2. There wasn’t enough of a difference between precincts with significant Hispanic or Asian minorities and those without them to support any effort to distinguish them from similar precincts that happen to lack significant Hispanic or Asian minorities.

3. I didn’t find any useful class-based distinctions in the data. In Black precincts, racial makeup (i.e. whether there’s much of a non-Black minority) explained the variances in election results much better than class makeup did, as usual for Baltimore elections of this type. Though there are often sizable gaps between results in White precincts in Baltimore that speak to real or perceived class differences, those were at best very muted with regards to this election, as these different neighborhoods acted in unison this time out.

Conclusion:

It took a near-perfect storm of high dissatisfaction among Whites, at least moderate dissatisfaction among Blacks, and low Black turnout to produce this surprising upset victory.  

I’m finally publishing this; what follows is Answer Guy’s first attempt at redistricting Maryland.

The objectives:

Preserve the two majority-African-American districts, one based in Baltimore, the other in Prince George’s County, per Voting Rights Act requirements. Easy enough.

Give all seven current Democratic incumbents a similar or better chance to win re-election than the current districts allow, especially in the case of MD-01. That means preserving the existing base of each incumbent as much as possible.

Keep communities of interest together as much as possible, if not too inconsistent with the above.

Create districts that avoid the ungainly shapes that many of the current Maryland districts have.  

More below the fold…

Map Overview

Note: Areas outside this map are in the districts you’d think they’d be in from the context.

First District

Description: All of the Eastern Shore counties – Worcester, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester, Talbot, Caroline, Queen Anne’s, Kent, Cecil; portions of Anne Arundel County (Annapolis, Fort Meade, portions of Odenton, East Laurel)  and northern portions (Laurel, Beltsville, College Park, Greenbelt, and New Carrollton) of Prince George’s County. Colored dark blue here.

Incumbent: Frank Kratovil (D-Stevensville)

(Note: Likely Republican MD-01 nominee Andrew Harris, who has at least a 50-50 chance of winning this November, doesn’t live anywhere near here, and the areas which supported him the most last time and will again this time aren’t either.)

Map Change: This new MD-01 still includes the entire Eastern Shore of Maryland. But while the current MD-01 includes two chunks of land (one in Baltimore and Harford Counties, the other in Anne Arundel County) very heavy on Republicans; this MD-01 replaces those areas almost entirely (there are a few precincts in Anne Arundel in common) with territory very heavy on Democrats.  The Republican areas west of the bridges – which supported McCain in even higher numbers than the Eastern Shore did – got carved up. The Anne Arundel County portion got split, with most of it going to MD-07, but some portions going to MD-05. The Harford and Baltimore County portion got divided three ways, mostly into the new MD-06 but with small portions being picked up by MD-02 and MD-03.

1st District Pop Pct Wh Bl Hisp Asn Oth Oba McC

Shore 437958 62% 79 16 3 1 1 43 55

Anne Arundel 132950 19% 57 29 4 8 2 62 37

Prince George’s 133292 19% 33 43 13 9 2 82 17

Total 704928 66 24 6 3 1 55 44

Old District 662062 86 11 2 1 1 40 58

Projected PVI: D+2

The Good News:

This is the most altered district, and by design, turning a strong Republican district into a Democratic-leaning swing district.

This district is in a sense designed for a guy like Kratovil, who would attempt to simultaneously appeal to swing voters on the Shore to support one of their own and to the Democrats in the rest of the district. The western portion of the current 1st gave John McCain 65% of their votes; the western portion of the new 1st gave Barack Obama 68% of their votes. The Anne Arundel portion is relatively thin, mostly avoiding Republican-heavy areas in the county to reach a highly diverse and heavily Democratic chunk of northern Prince George’s County. Due to VRA compliance requirements for MD-04, this MD-01 contains only a handful of black-majority precincts (in the Landover and New Carrollton areas.) The changes would still more than double the black population of MD-01, and the Hispanic and Asian shares of the electorate also increase dramatically with the inclusion of many diverse Washington suburbs like College Park, Beltsville, Greenbelt, Laurel, and Odenton.  . Obama’s 55% showing may overstate the Democratic leanings of this district a bit – though Kratovil was able to run 10 points ahead of the national ticket at the same time, and now most of the areas that backed Harris in that contest have been removed from the district.

It’s not guaranteed not to ever elect a Republican, but it would be very difficult for an arch-conservative of the Club For Growth variety to get elected here.

The Less-Than-Good News:

On the surface, the changes are pretty much all positive for Dems. However…the potential electoral dynamics change dramatically on several levels. Because I also placed a priority on not significantly endangering any of the current Democratic seats, this isn’t a strong enough Democratic electorate to get rid of a Republican who exhibits some measure of cross-party and independent appeal, particularly during a Republican-leaning election cycle. The Eastern Shore, who represent 62% of the new district’s population, still prefers Republicans more often than not, and so do parts of the Anne Arundel County portion of the district. As I said above, the 55% showing for Obama is probably not a new normal and the partisan lean would lose a few points if non-white turnout regresses to levels more commonly seen prior to 2008.  

It’s not hard to imagine competitive Democratic primaries that pit moderates against progressives that could produce candidates that either swing voters or base voters might find unappealing. The Democrats of the current MD-01 generally lean conservative, but Democratic candidates in this MD-01 would have contend with a much more varied electorate. Kratovil, especially if he were no longer an incumbent, would almost certainly face a primary challenge from his left of some sort if he were to run here, given his voting record.  

The Shore would dominate Republican primaries, due to the lack of registered Republicans in the rest of the new district, to a point the dynamics that produce a candidate like Andy Harris (someone with trouble appealing to Shore residents or to swing voters in general) would be unlikely to materialize. GOP candidates would mostly come from the Shore and might be able to use that to their advantage.  

Ironically enough, Wayne Gilchrest almost certainly still be in Congress if he had this map two years ago; there’s no way a wingnut primary challenge would have succeeded, and he’d be tough to dislodge in a general election even in a good year for Democrats across the board like 2008. In a Republican year, it’s not hard to imagine some types of Republican winning here, though a guy like Harris would have no shot, and not just because it doesn’t go anywhere near where he lives.    

Fundraising might become a higher priority, as the new district lines cut well into the very expensive Washington media market. To reach the whole district would involve using both Baltimore-based and DC-based media. The current district, by contrast, doesn’t really include much of anything that one might describe as a proper DC suburb.  

The Bottom Line:

In a 2012 election with Obama on the ballot, with these lines, though it’s not a slam dunk by any means, I like Team Blue’s chances, whether with Kratovil or with someone else.

Second District

Description: Contains southern portions (Edgewood, Aberdeen, and Havre de Grace) of Harford County; eastern, northeastern, and north-central portions (Dundalk, Essex, Middle River, Parkville, Timonium, and Cockeysville) of Baltimore County;  and northeast, east, central, and southern portions of Baltimore City. Colored dark green here.  

Incumbent: C.A. Ruppersburger (D-Cockeysville)

(Note: Likely Republican MD-01 nominee Andrew Harris lives here, though most of his State Senate constituents don’t.)

Map Changes:

This new MD-02 has been made much more compact. It no longer contains any portion of Anne Arundel County and doesn’t go west of Cockeysville anymore, saying goodbye to the portions of Owings Mills and Reisterstown currently within its borders.  Containing much more of Baltimore City than previous versions of the district did, it’s now the district that includes most of the areas of Baltimore of interest to tourists – Federal Hill, the Inner Harbor/Downtown, Mount Vernon, Bolton Hill, Fells Point, Canton, Greektown, and Highlandtown. It also includes a bigger chunk of Northeast Baltimore than the current version does. The whole of southeastern Baltimore County is still here, and the Harford County portion is very similar (slightly smaller) to what is in the current district.

2nd District Pop Pct Wh Bl Hisp Asn Oth Oba McC

Baltimore City 277202 39% 45 47 4 2 1 82 17

Baltimore County 339213 48% 76 15 4 3 1 48 50

Harford 88267 13% 65 26 4 2 2 55 43

Total 704682 62 29 4 3 1 62 36

Old District 662060 66 27 2 2 1 60 38

Projected PVI: D+9

The Good News:

The addition of central Baltimore is the main reason that the new electorate moves two points to the Democrats, more than making up for the loss of some heavily Democratic northwest suburbs given to MD-03 and MD-07. This district does contain several city neighborhoods in outlying parts in northeast and far eastern Baltimore that are neither particularly liberal nor particularly Democratic, but also contains several mostly black precincts where the Republican share of the vote is in the low single digits.

The Baltimore County portion, about half the district, was carried by McCain, but many state and local Democrats, most notably incumbent Ruppersburger, have outperformed Obama significantly in these areas, particularly the East Side, in a development widely discussed in other SSP diaries about Maryland. And while Harford County as a whole may tilt Republican, the table above shows that the section of it included in MD-02 does not.

The Not-So-Good News:

This district may have been carried by Bob Ehrlich in his gubernatorial race in 2002 and looks more like the district he used to represent in the 1995-2003 period than the current MD-02 does; of the six districts designed to be relatively safe for Democrats, the Republicans have a deeper bench of officeholders at the state and local level than in any of the others.  There are signs that the east side of Baltimore County might be trending away from its traditional Democratic lean. Still, it is very hard to imagine even Ehrlich or a Republican who can duplicate his appeal winning in a district where nearly 40% of the constituents are Baltimore City residents.

As a secondary concern, this portion of Baltimore County is home to a lot of conserva-Dems who might be able to install a not-particularly-loyal Democrat into the seat in an open-seat situation if the city vote is either low or split.  

The Bottom Line:

Dutch Ruppersburger doesn’t really need the help, but this map gives him some anyway. You never know when a seat is going to become open. From a redrawing point of view, keeping this district out of northwest Baltimore County helped make it and MD-03 much more compact with more appealing shapes without affecting their respective partisan makeups much. It’s a set of communities that hang together pretty well. Should remain in the Democratic column.

Third District

Descriptions: Contains northern and northwest portions of Baltimore City, northern and western portions (Towson, Pikesville, Owings Mills, Reisterstown, Randallstown) of Baltimore County, all of Howard County, northwestern portions (Jessup, Hanover) of Anne Arundel County, and northeastern portions (Damascus, Laytonsville, Olney, Burtonsville) of Montgomery County. Colored purple here.

Incumbent: John Sarbanes (D-Towson)

Map Changes:

These are dramatic changes as well, as the new MD-03 is mostly pushed out of Baltimore (and pushed out of downtown entirely) and Annapolis yet is still made more Democratic, mostly by adding new territory in the west via moving more into Washington suburbs.

The seemingly arbitrary pockets of East Baltimore are gone; what remains is more cohesive and more easily definable set of northern and northwestern city neighborhoods. Roughly from east to west, they are Waverly, Charles Village, Guilford, Homeland, Roland Park, Hampden, Mt. Washington, and upper portions of Park Heights; most are predominantly white (Park Heights and Waverly are mostly black while Charles Village is one of the most integrated parts of Baltimore) and relatively liberal.

The Baltimore County portion does contain some conservative exurban areas in northern Baltimore County (Sparks and Pheonix areas) but is concentrated mostly in more urban Towson and Pikesville. Some precincts to the west and northwest of Baltimore are instead in the black-majority MD-07, but this portion of MD-03 does contain some majority-black precincts. The Arbutus/Halethorpe/Landsdowne area in southern Baltimore County has been removed.

Howard County, previously split with MD-07, is now included in its entirety.

A small portion of Anne Arundel County does remain, but it now goes nowhere near Annapolis, instead staying close to the B-W Parkway.

The addition that sticks out most is the new territory in Montgomery County, about 130K residents, mostly outer suburbanites. There are a few precincts that carry Silver Spring, Rockville or Gaithersburg addresses, but this MD-03 contains none of either of the cities of Rockville or Gaithersburg, and nothing particularly close to the core of Silver Spring, as everything here is well outside the Beltway.

Things had to change for several reasons. One is that the population distribution in the state is shifting away from Greater Baltimore in general and Baltimore City in particular and some district based in or around Baltimore was inevitably going to end up with more Washington suburbanites. Another is that to fix the hideous shapes of some of the current districts required cutting off some of the more ungainly-looking appendages.  The current MD-03 is a group of pockets joined together by a series of thin strands and cleaning that up required shedding some of the pockets and filling out others; the threads running to the east were incompatible with the rest of the plan for the state, so the only direction to go was to the west.  

3rd District Pop Pct Wh Bl Hisp Asn Oth Oba McC

Baltimore City 92372 13% 61 29 3 5 1 81 17

Baltimore County 193424 27% 66 24 3 5 1 59 39

Howard/Arundel (Balt. Area) 167389 24% 63 18 5 12 2 59 39

Howard West (DC Area) 120254 17% 64 17 5 11 2 63 35

Montgomery 131144 19% 64 15 9 10 2 62 37

Total 704583 64 20 5 9 2 63 36

Old District 662062 77 16 3 3 1 59 39

Projected PVI: D+10

The Not-So-Good News:

It’s often awkward when redistricting changes a constituency this much, even if in the abstract the changes are favorable to an incumbent seeking re-election, as they are here. At some level, this would be like an open-seat race as far as about half the electorate is concerned. It might even be more awkward than usual in this case. The table lists the different components of the district; I divided Howard County into areas likely have some connection to Baltimore (roughly anything north of Route 32 and east of Route 29) and those areas unlikely to know much about Baltimore and its politics. Throw the latter in with MoCo and that’s about 36% of the district that has no Baltimore connection. Reaching them would require investing in an expensive new media market. (Though there are already probably some residents of the current MD-03 who are better reached via Washington media than Baltimore media because Washington casts a much bigger shadow.) Incumbent John Sarbanes lives in Towson in Baltimore County and his family is based in Baltimore; though his name is well-known in the western portions of the new MD-03, he himself is not.

The Good News:

From Democrats’ point of view, simply put, what could have become a potential swing district in a year with low Baltimore City turnout is made four points more Democratic. These new constituents aren’t likely to vote Republican, especially compared with what else could have been placed in this district. The Republican bench here is almost entirely confined to two areas, one in western Howard County, the other in northern Baltimore County, that have little in common with the rest of the district. The main bases of the district since the ’90s have been north Baltimore, Towson, Pikesville, and Columbia, and they’re all still here.

From Baltimore’s point of view, this is a district that even in an open-seat Democratic primary or general election is still more likely to choose a Baltimore-area representative than one from closer to DC; not only do most residents of the district live closer to Baltimore, but the DC-focused areas contain large numbers of new, less-established residents with no ties to existing political cliques. (Obviously, this isn’t good news for Montgomery County’s clout, but they’d they have no less than now.)

From Sarbanes’ own point of view, these new areas, in addition to not being of much help to future Republican opponents, aren’t especially likely to form the base for any successful region-based (notenough of them) or ideology-based (not different enough from the rest of the district to matter) primary challenges. And any Baltimore-area politician, looking at a future statewide run is going to need to be known in MoCo.

Bottom Line:

This district should be safe for John Sarbanes and is unlikely to be in danger of flipping to the Republicans should he decide to move on.

Fourth District

Description: Portions of Prince George’s County (Ft. Washington, Oxon Hill, District Heights, Capitol Heights, Glenarden, Cheverly, Hyattsville, Langley Park) close to Washington, DC, and eastern and central portions (Takoma Park, East Silver Spring, Wheaton, White Oak, Burtonsville) of Montgomery County. Colored red here.

Incumbent: Donna Edwards (D-Fort Washington)

Map Change: This MD-04 sheds some Upper Montgomery territory to the expansion of MD-03, and cedes some of central and southern Prince George’s to MD-05. It picks up more of close-in eastern Montgomery County from MD-08 for the sake of compactness.

4th District Pop Pct Wh Bl Hisp Asn Oth Oba McC

Prince George’s 435116 62% 8 70 18 3 1 93 6

Montgomery 268281 38% 38 25 21 14 2 77 21

Total 703397 20 53 19 7 2 87 12

Old District 662062 27 57 8 6 0 85 14

Projected PVI: D+32

The Good News: This version of MD-04 is even more strongly Democratic (despite reducing the African-American share of the residents from 57% to 53%) which ranks it among the most Democratic and most liberal districts in the nation.  I did not set out to strengthen the Democratic lean here, it’s a natural consequence of removing less Democratic far-flung areas like Clarksburg and making things more compact and leaving room for the MD-03 shift chronicled above. It’s interesting from a political-demography perspective; it’s not every day you can change a district’s borders to include fewer African-Americans and yet increase the Democratic share of the vote. From Edwards; perspective, the increase in the Democratic vote in Montgomery also has the effect of making a Prince George’s County-based primary challenge tougher.

The Not-So-Good News: There are no Republican-leaning areas anywhere near here to neutralize, unless one wants push these borders way south to break up Southern Maryland or way north to get some less Democratic parts of Montgomery or Howard Counties, and I had good reasons not to do either.

Fifth District

Description: Southern and central portions (Crofton, Millersville, Davidsonville, Edgewater, Deale) of Anne Arundel County; central, western and southern portions (Bowie, Seabrook, Largo, Mitchellville, Forestville, Upper Marlboro, Brandywine, Acokeek) of Prince George’s County; all of Charles County; all of Calvert County; all of St. Mary’s County. Colored yellow here.

Incumbent: Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville)

Projected PVI: D+12

Map Change: Less than many districts. The new MD-05 is changed mostly to help MD-01, shedding areas in northern Prince George’s County (such as Laurel, Greenbelt, and College Park) and western and central Anne Arundel County.  It doesn’t weaken as a strong Democratic district due its new areas in central Prince George’s County left behind by MD-04, a change reflected in the demographics numbers as the proportion of African-Americans increases from 30% to 36%.

5th District

Anne Arundel 120226 17% 84 9 3 2 1 45 54

Prince George’s 252444 36% 25 65 5 3 2 87 12

Charles 140764 20% 52 39 4 2 2 64 35

St. Mary’s/Calvert 190276 27% 79 15 3 2 2 45 54

Total 703710 55 36 4 3 2 66 33

Old District 662060 60 30 4 4 0 65 33

The Good News:

A reasonably safe Democratic district (at least by 2008 metrics) moves one more point in that direction. Southern Maryland is kept together as a unit. From a pro-diversity point of view, an African-American would have a decent shot in an open seat Democratic primary here, more so than the currently existing MD-05. Though there is a reasonable Republican farm team in this district, it would be very hard to overcome the Democratic bloc vote in Prince George’s, especially as Charles County heads in a similar direction.

The Not-So-Good News:

Hoyer and the Democrats, though they still doesn’t have much reason to worry, are now slightly more dependent on the African-American vote in MD-05, meaning that a lower turnout model would move this district closer to the new MD-02 or MD-03 in partisan breakdown rather than a truly safe-in-all-circumstances seat.  This would be one of the best places in the nation for a black Republican to launch a political career.  

Our Majority Leader should be fine here, and whenever the day comes, his Democratic successor here should be as well.

Sixth District

Description: All of Garrett, Allegany, and Washington Counties; western, northern, and eastern portions (Middletown, Thurmont, Walkersville) of Frederick County; all of Carroll County; far northern (Upperco, Parkton) and northeastern (Perry Hall, Baldwin) portions of Baltimore County; central and northern portions (Joppa, Bel Air, Jarrettsville, Pylesville) of Harford County. Colored teal blue here.

The Incumbent: Roscoe Bartlett (R-Frederick)

(Note: Republican MD-01 nominee Andrew Harris doesn’t live here, but most of his current State Senate district is in here, and so are the areas of MD-01 who supported him the most last time and will again this time.)

Map Changes:

It’s pretty obvious what happens here. The small portion of Montgomery County (mostly Damascus) is handed off to MD-03. The City of Frederick and its immediate environs, plus the area around Brunswick, are given to MD-08. The Reistertown area is now in MD-03. In exchange, the new MD-06 picks up a bunch of areas from the former MD-01, in northeastern Baltimore County and central Harford County. In partisan terms, most of the few areas left in MD-06 that were favorable, or even neutral, to Democrats are gone; all but one of the precincts in this district carried by Obama are in Hagerstown, the sole exception being a precinct in Cumberland that Obama carried by five votes.  

6th District Pop Pct Wh Bl Hisp Asn Oth Oba McC

Western Maryland 320515 89 6 2 1 1 38 60

Baltimore Exurban 383311 91 4 2 2 1 33 65

Total 703826 90 5 2 2 1 35 63

Old District 662060 92 5 1 1 0 40 58

Projected PVI: R+18

The Good News:

There are seven Democrats in an eight-member delegation. None of them have to run in this district or any portion of it. (It was not a goal of mine to make Bartlett move.)

On the upside, there could be some entertainment value the next time this seat opens up (Bartlett is no spring chicken) as the various GOP aspirants each try to out-wingnut each other. The only other real subject of potential interest is seeing if a Western Marylander can gain traction in a district where denizens of Baltimore exurbs are more numerous.

The Not-So-Good News:

There are still enough Republicans, and areas full of them, in Maryland to command one district. Here it is.  

More seriously, one consequence of generating a district like this is that Democrats, independents, and liberal-to-moderate voters in general have very little say in who gets elected to represent this district. While that’s good for the Democrats, both nationwide and in Maryland, in some sense – anyone who can survive a GOP primary in this electorate has slim chances of developing the sort of cross-party appeal a Republican would need to win statewide, and we’re talking about a state GOP that’s already skilled at cutting off its nose to spite its own face here – it’s bad from a good-government perspective. Competitive races are good for many governmental functions, and I know that exercises like this one that go on in state capitals coast-to-coast tend to make such contests less likely.

But there’s no way I’m going to unilaterally disarm.  

Bottom Line: Safe Republican; not much else to say.

Seventh District

Description: Portions of east-central and western Baltimore City; western and southwestern portions (Lochearn, Woodlawn, Catonsville, Arbutus, Halethorpe) of Baltimore County; north-central and northeastern (Brooklyn Park, Linthicum, Severn, Glen Burnie, Pasadena, Arnold, Severna Park) portions of Anne Arundel County. Colored medium gray here.

Incumbent: Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore)

Map Changes:

There’s a little less of Baltimore here now, MD-02 in particular grabbing a larger share; what remains is two clusters of heavily black neighborhoods (the East Baltimore is section centered just north of Johns Hopkins Hospital; the larger West Baltimore section expands westward from Druid Hill Park, and follows Reisterstown Road, Liberty Heights Avenue, Route 40, and Frederick Avenue outwards) joined by a narrow neck around where North Avenue meets Interstate 83. 95% of its votes went to Obama. Though there are some pockets of stable middle-class neighborhoods to be found here, the majority of these neighborhoods are beset by longstanding issues of poverty, crime, and urban blight.

The Baltimore County portion includes most of the majority-black suburbs to the west of Baltimore proper. The new version contracts slightly in the Interstate 70 area but expands towards Randallstown out Liberty Road. It now includes all of Catonsville and inherits the southwest corner of Baltimore County from MD-03. All in all, the Baltimore County portion of MD-07 is about evenly split between blacks and whites.

The Anne Arundel portion is inherited from MD-01, MD-02, and MD-03, and is designed to sop out Republican areas formerly assigned to those districts. Collectively, it gave 55% of its votes to John McCain.

7th District Pop Pct Wh Bl Hisp Asn Oth Oba McC

Baltimore City 267345 38% 6 91 1 1 1 95 5

Baltimore County 191107 27% 42 49 3 4 2 73 25

Anne Arundel 246238 35% 82 10 3 3 2 43 55

Total 704690 42 51 2 3 1 69 30

Old 662060 35 59 2 4 1 79 20

Projected PVI: D+15

The Good News:

Fewer wasted Democratic votes. Of the seven Democrats in the delegation, only Donna Edwards in MD-04 needed less help. It’s still VRA compliant.

As I explain below, Cummings isn’t going to be pleased. However, if he harbors statewide ambitions, introducing himself to Democrats in northern Anne Arundel County might help him emerge from what could be a crowded primary field.  

The Not-So-Good News:

Democrats are 10 points weaker here now, for three reasons – the new MD-07 has a smaller share of Baltimore City (mostly shedding racially mixed or mostly white areas with liberals more needed elsewhere), a lower percentage of African-Americans (from 59% to 51%), and a shift in suburban population from [relatively] Democrat-family portions of Howard County to more Republican-leaning portions of Anne Arundel County. There’s a bit of a polarized electorate here; you can draw a line through Baltimore County on Route 40 and then follow the southern border of Baltimore City and you’ll discover mostly black Democratic voters on the north side of the line and mostly white Republican voters on the south side. What keeps the district out of the swing category despite this is that the few exceptions to the rule – Brooklyn Park and Severn have sizable African-American populations, and Democrats do fairly well in Catonsville –  are all on the southern side of the divide.

Incumbent Eli Cummings will likely not be a happy camper, though he probably doesn’t have much to worry about. He’d have to introduce himself to a whole new set (about 40% of this district is brand new) of constituents, many of whom are strongly inclined to support his Republican opponents.  It’ll be easier to recruit Republican challengers from Anne Arundel than from any area he now represents. If an African-American could somehow emerge from a Republican congressional primary, he’d have a better chance here than in most places.

But this district still gave Obama 69% of its votes; even if that’s a vote ceiling, any GOP candidate would need to run double-digits ahead of the national ticket to even have a shot, and rare is the candidate that can accomplish such a feat, even in an open seat situation.  

Bottom Line:

This seat’s been weakened (by necessity) quite a bit but still isn’t going to show up on any GOP potential pickup lists anytime soon, with or without Cummings.

Eighth District

Description: Southern, central, and western portions (Silver Spring, Kensington, Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Germantown, Clarksburg, Poolesville) of Montgomery County; southern and central portions (Frederick City, Urbana, Brunswick) of Frederick County. Colored lavender here.

Incumbent: Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington)

Map Changes:

MD-08 moves out of Prince George’s County and cedes a large chunk of eastern Montgomery County (Takoma Park, parts of Sliver Spring, Wheaton, White Oak) to MD-04. In exchange MD-08 moves up into Frederick County, taking the City of Frederick and its environs from MD-06. The result is a less Democratic but still safe district.

8th District

Montgomery 551255 78% 59 11 13 14 2 71 27

Frederick 152526 22% 74 12 8 5 2 53 45

Total 703781 63 12 12 12 2 68 30

Old District 662060 63 17 14 11 6 74 25

Projected PVI: D+15

The Good News:

Fewer wasted Democratic votes. As a district with Republican-leaning border areas not subject to any VRA compliance mandates, it’s a pretty obvious candidate for dilution to everyone. And even the more conservative Frederick County portion of the district was carried by Barack Obama in 2008.

The Not-So-Good News:

The Democratic bottom line shifts downward six points, which is about what one would expect when shifting 25% of a district from one of the most heavily Democratic-voting areas in the country to a 50-50 area. The Frederick area, though it’s becoming friendlier to Democrats with every cycle, has long been a source of Republican candidates for every conceivable office.

Not that I think it matters much now, but this new version of MD-08 looks a lot more like it did when Republican Connie Morella held it down in the 1990s. Had this been the playing field over the last decade worth of House elections, I imagine that there’s at least a chance she’d still be on Capitol Hill now as an increasingly lonely voice for the old Eastern-style Republican in the GOP caucus. Morella is almost certainly too old to make a comeback now, and her party has spent the intervening decade making itself extremely unappealing to voters in districts like this one anyway.  

The Bottom Line:

Van Hollen or whatever Democrat succeeds him shouldn’t have a problem getting re-elected in this district.

Extra Maps:

Baltimore

North of DC

East of DC

Here’s my contest entry, creating a 27-1 redistricted map for the State of New York.

I had several goals in mind, most lining up with the contest rules anyway.

Here were some of my guiding principles:

* Keep incumbents’ homes in their current districts where possible.  

* Pay special attention to good Democrats in bad or mediocre districts.

* Don’t get greedy and gamble too much; don’t repeat the mistakes the GOP made in Pennsylvania and Ohio 10 years ago and turn safe districts into vulnerable ones.

* Comply with all VRA mandates, but don’t overpack minority-majority districts.

I didn’t, in most cases, pay a lot of attention to keeping counties together. I kept most cities, other than NYC obviously, in one district most of the time. (I think whoever posted that comment in someone else’s contest entry that Staten Islanders would be angry at whoever approved a plan to split Staten Island was dead on.)

I tried to stay away from ridiculous gerrymanders for the most part, but had to succumb in a few instances. With the exception of placing Rikers Island (accessible by bridge from Queens but not the Bronx, even though it is considered part of Bronx County) in the Bronx-based NY-16 I did not create any district whose parts whose only contiguity was open non-bridged/tunneled water.

Upstate

Upstate New York Map

Buffalo Area Map

Rochester Area Map

Albany Area Map

NY-28 (Pale Pink)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-29: McCain 51-48

New NY-28: Obama 51-47 (+4D)

Demographic Data –

Old NY-29: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Hispanic

New NY-28: 92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D-Corning)

Description: Running along a narrow strip the Southern Tier along the Pennsylvania border from Delaware to Cattaraugus County, then including all of Chautauqua and parts of Erie County. Essentially replaces the current NY-29.

Comments: Yeah, this one is a bit unwiedly. Most of the smaller towns of the Southern Tier are so intensely Republican that this district had to run a long way to become a Democratic district. Most of that strength comes from the opposite ends of the district’s length – one end that includes most of the Binghamton metro area and another end covering certain southern and western suburbs of Buffalo, particularly strongly Democratic portions of Lackawanna, West Seneca, and Cheektowaga. In between the pickings are slim; there’s the whole of Chautaqua County, notably less hostile to Democrats as a whole than the counties between there and Binghamton. NY-28 seeks out the more Democratic cities and towns in an otherwise Republican area, including Alfred, Wellsville, Elmira, and, conveniently enough, Eric Massa’s home of Corning. The big change is the new NY-28, unlike the old NY-29, goes nowhere near Rochester. Nearly 25% of the district’s population is in Erie County.

Bottom Line: Still a marginal district, but a little better given that any Republican challenger is going to have to make himself known in both the Binghamton and Buffalo markets. Of course, so is Massa.  He’s been a terrific Congressman, so hopefully he can hold on.

NY-27 (Seafoam Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-27: Obama 54-44

New NY-27: Obama 62-37 (+8D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-27: 91% White, 5% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Asian

New NY-27: 76% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)

Description: Contains portions of Erie and Niagra counties, including the entire cities of Buffalo, North Tonawanda, and Niagra Falls.

Comments: This district shifts northward, taking in all of Buffalo and most of the inner suburbs, such as Amherst and Tonawanda, that are not in NY-28. The old district went south of Buffalo instead and included a fair amount of hostile territory, because it was created for Republican Jack Quinn. The Democratic numbers here improve dramatically due to the inclusion of the whole of Buffalo rather than losing the most Democratic parts to the notorious “earmuffs” of the current NY-28.

Bottom Line: Given Democrats’ trouble in parts of the decaying industrial Rust Belt, the old district could have been vulnerable, but this new district seems pretty safe for Higgins and his successors.

NY-5 (Golden Yellow)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-26: 52-46 McCain

New NY-5: 57-41 McCain (+5 R)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-26: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-5: 95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic

Descriptions: Containing all of three counties, and portions of eleven more, this sprawling (and yet reasonable-looking) piece of territory covers the most Republican portions of the Buffalo and Rochester suburbs, the largely Republican turf between them, and most of the strongly GOP rural Southern Tier…you get the idea. [Note: I labelled this district as “NY-5” because, well, it seemed the best color contrast with the other districts in the area; in my first draft of this map, the 5th and 18th districts had a long border, which was annoying since they were similar shades of yellow.]

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R-Clarence)

Comments: All the Republicans in western New York (with a few from Central New York thrown in for good measure) had to go somewhere, and this is where I stuffed as many of them as I could. For the price of keeping other Democrats safe, I wrote this one off. It didn’t make any sense to me to have as many 50-50 Buffalo and Rochester suburbs in there as the current 26th does.

Bottom Line: Safe Republican. You can’t win ’em all.

NY-26 (Dark Gray)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-28: Obama 69-30

New NY-26: Obama 59-40 (-10D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-28:  64% White, 30% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-26: 78% White, 13% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D-Perinton)

Description: No more earmuffs; this district is now firmly in the Rochester orbit as the portions in and around Buffalo are gone. It includes all of the city of Rochester and the majority of its suburbs, excluding the most Republican areas to the west and a few eastern suburbs that are in NY-25. It’s mostly in Monroe County, with some portions of Wayne, Ontario, and Livingston in there as well. Basically replaces the existing NY-28.

Comments: This is a signifcantly weaker district for Democrats without Buffalo, but I’m not too worried. The two appendages to the south are one into Livingston County to grab college town Geneseo and the other into Ontario County to get the city of Candindiagua.

Bottom Line: Slaughter trades a less Democratic district for not having to cover Buffalo anymore. She and her Democratic successors should still be fine. There are a lot less wasted votes here now.

NY-25 (Salmon Pink)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-25: Obama 56-43

New NY-25: Obama 56-43 (unch.)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-25: 88% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-25: 88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D-DeWitt)

Description: The current NY-25 is very close to the existing district. Anchored now as before by Syracuse, it includes most of Onondaga County, including all of Syracuse; to the east it includes portions of Oswego, Madison, Oneida, and Lewis Counties, while to the west it includes northern Cayuga County, most of Wayne County and a few Rochester suburbs in Monroe County.

Comments: Few changes. All districts had to expand a little bit, so the new NY-25 takes in a few rural areas in Lewis and Madison as well as a few Republican communities in the Rome-Oneida area so as to help NY-24. It includes fewer and different Rochester burbs from the old district.

Bottom Line: Pretty much the same. Maffei should be fine here absent a strong challenger.

NY-24 (Dark Purple)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-24: Obama 51-47

New NY-24: Obama 52-46 (+1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-24: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-24: 91% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D-Utica)

Description: Containing all or part of 14 counties, it’s based around the cities of Utica, Rome, and Oneida. It includes most of Oneida and Madison Counties and the whole of Tompkins, Cortland and Chenango Counties. It also includes most of Seneca and Cayuga, small parts of northern Tioga and Broome and southern Onondaga, the southern (more populated) half of Herkimer County and the western (less populated) halves of Fulton and Montgomery Countes, the area around Geneva in Ontario County and the Town of Hector in Schuyler County.

Comments: Formerly Republican turf, it’s now a swing district. Adding all of Tompkins County, including Ithaca (NY-22 no longer needs it, as I’ll explain below) helps Democrats, and the small towns in the Finger Lakes region are less hostile to Democrats than similar towns to the north and west. NY-24 was a frustrating one to draw for me for a variety of reasons. Rome-Utica is a weak basis for a Democratic district to begin with, adding Ithaca only helps so much, and because, again, all the upstate districts had to get bigger (this one even more than some) there was really nothing available to add to it apart from Republican rural areas. So the best I could do without endangering better Democrats than Arcuri has been is to improve it by one point and hope that and incumbency are enough.

Bottom Line: A little better. Still a tough district for Democrats, even a conservative one like Arcuri. Should a Republican prevail here in 2010, it’d be a good candidate to carve up.

NY-23 (Pale Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-23: 52-47 Obama

New NY-23: 53-46 Obama (+1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-23: 94% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Asian

New NY-23: 93% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Asian

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)

Description: Contains most of what is known as the North Country. The big changes are that it stays further away from Syracuse and Rome but that it now includes most of the Saratoga Springs area as well as all of Essex County and most of the land area of Warren County. (Glens Falls is still out so that it can still be in Scott Murphy’s NY-20.)

Comments: Looks mostly the same as before except that as NY-24 and NY-25 have expanded a bit to the north and east, NY-23 has had to dip down into the Capital Region. This change has the nice side effect of making it slightly more Democrat-friendly.

Bottom Line: Bill Owens is still going to have a challenging district, but some fairly hostile turf has been replaced by some decent territory around Saratoga Springs. Nonetheless, should a Republican win here in 2010, it’d be a good candidate for carving up.

NY-21 (Dark Brown)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-21: Obama 58-40

New NY-21: Obama 57-41 (-1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-21: 87% White, 8% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-21: 86% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)

Description: Includes most of the Albany-Troy metro area, including all of Albany, Schenectady, and Schoharie Counties and portions of Rensselaer, Saratoga, Greene, Fulton, and Montgomery.

Comments: Essentially it’s the same district. It’s a little weaker than the current district because it had to expand and only had hostile Republican turf (new portions of Greene, Fulton, and Saratoga on the periphery) available to add.

Bottom Line: Should still be a reasonably safe district for Tonko and his Democratic successors.

Hudson Valley Region

Hudson Valley Area Map

Westchester-Rockland Map

NY-22 (Light Brown)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-22: Obama 59-39

New NY-22: Obama 57-41 (-2D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-22: 83% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-22: 80% White, 9% Hispanic, 8% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Other

Description: Now mostly a Hudson Valley district, at least population-wise, it includes the cities of Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, and Kingston, the latter of which is incumbent Hinchey’s home base. Including all of Ulster, Sullivan, and Otsego, it also includes portions of Orange, Dutchess, and Greene, as well as most of Delaware County.

Comments: I reclassified both this district and NY-20 out of the “Upstate” category for a reason. The arm of the existing district that runs out to Binghamton and Ithaca was originally the product of a compromise whereby Hinchey got a safer district (that didn’t include much of then-mostly Republican Delaware County) while the various upstate Republicans didn’t have to worry about representing either of those Democratic cities. However,  all those aforementioned Republicans are gone now and replaced by Democrats, and Democrats’ fortunes in Ulster, Sullivan, and even Delaware County have improved to the point where the district doesn’t need to be shorn up in that fashion. As a consolation prize, NY-22 adds the very Democratic city of Poughkeepsie and while Delaware County and the new portions of Orange and Greene Counties are Republican, the new turf in Otsego County (with Cooperstown and college town Oneonta) is surprisingly Democrat-friendly.

Bottom Line: If current trends continue in the Hudson Valley, with the diversification of the periphery of the NYC metro area, this should say a safe Democratic seat even without Binghamton and Ithaca.

NY-20 (Rose Pink)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-20: Obama 51-48

New NY-20: Obama 55-43 (+4D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-20: 95% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-20: 81% White, 8% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls)

Description: A long thin strand that mostly follows the Hudson River from Lake Champlain down almost to the Tappan Zee. It avoids most of the bigger cities upstream which are in either NY-21 or NY-22. Contains parts of 10 counties, just as the current NY-20 does, but cuts out the Catskills region and instead runs further downstream into Orange, Putnam, Westchester, and Rockland Counties. (The Rockland/Orange section is connected to the rest of the district via the Bear Mountain Bridge.)

Comment: This might be the district I changed more than any other and it’s even more different than it looks on a map. It still contains most of the northern Taconic region as well as incumbent Murphy’s home town of Glens Falls. However, the current district doesn’t go below Poughkeepsie on the Hudson River whereas the majority of the new district lives in its new southern portion in Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and southern Dutchess Counties, and the racial diversity has increased dramatically. The Rockland and Westchester sections of the district are strongly Democratic, which pulls the district from a true swing district into one that leans significantly towards the Democrats. This is another district that looks kind of unwieldy. I certainly did not set out to design something that both borders Vermont and comes within a couple miles of bordering New Jersey.

Bottom Line: The good news for Scott Murphy, assuming he survives 2010, would be a district that’s significantly more Democratic than the one he has now, making a Republican challenge much harder. The bad news is that he may well have to worry more about a Democratic primary challenge from a resident of the lower portion of this district, not to mention needing to worry about the expensive NYC media market.  

NY-19 (Yellow-Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-19: Obama 51-48

New NY-19: Obama 58-41 (+7D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-19: 88% White, 8% Hispanic, 5% Black, 2% Asian

New NY-19: 72% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: John Hall (D-Dover)

Description: A north-south piece of territory that covers the eastern half of Dutchess County, the eastern-two thirds of Putnam County, and the majority of Westchester County.

Comments: A “musical chairs” situation where no upstate districts are eliminated creates a downstate pull on everything else, and that’s very much manifested here. NY-19 now stays entirely east of the Hudson, more or less following Metro North’s Harlem Line and the Taconic Parkway from the northernmost reaches of Dutchess County down to the borders of the Bronx. As one might expect, subtracting mostly Republican turf in Orange County and a mixed bag of stuff in Rockland County while adding all of White Plains and portions of New Rochelle and Mount Vernon is a huge boost to Democratic numbers. These changes would likely remove NY-19 from the list of swing districts entirely and into “Likely Democratic” if not “Safe Democratic” territory.

Bottom Line: This map should make John Hall a very happy man.

NY-18 (Bright Yellow)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-18: Obama 62-38

New NY-: Obama 68-30 (+6D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-18: 67% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% Asian, 1% Other

New NY-18: 50% White, 22% Hispanic, 21% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)

Description: Sort of a “Long Island Sound” district, it covers a stretch of lower Westchester along the Sound and the Connecticut border (Pelham, Eastchester, part of New Rochelle, Rye City and Town, Mamaroneck, and Harrison), eastern and central portions of the Bronx (a mixture of white, black, and Hispanic neighborhoods), then over the Throgs Neck Bridge to Queens. NY-18 contains portions of the Bayside and Flushing areas and moves into the Great Neck section of Nassau County.

Comments: A lot has changed here as Rockland County is out entirely and Lowey’s home town of Harrison is in the far northern edge of the new district as instead NY-18 gets pushed downstate, into the Bronx and Queens and even onto Long Island. Note that in the 1990s, Lowey’s district actually included portions of Queens and the Bronx so this isn’t entirely new to her.  The upside for an incumbent Democrat is obvious – even though I tried to include as many Republican areas as I could (the Queens and Nassau portion together is about even between Obama and McCain) the district still moved 6 points towards Team Blue, thanks mostly to the Bronx. Note also than non-Hispanic whites are now just barely a majority of the new district.

NY-17 (Grey-Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-17: Obama 72-28

New NY-17: Obama 67-32 (-5D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-17: 49% White, 32% Black, 20% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 1% Other

New NY-17: 46% White, 28% Hispanic, 19% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Other

Incumbent: Elliot Engel (D-Riverdale,Bronx)

Description: This district contains mostly northern parts of the Bronx (Wakefield, Woodlawn, Riverdale) with some portions down near Fordham University, takes in parts of the cities of Mount Vernon and Yonkers in Westchester County, and then crosses the Tappan Zee Bridge to include portions of Rockland and Orange Counties, mostly along I-287 and, appropriately enough, NY Route 17.

Comment: The biggest change here is that this new district stretches out into Orange, cutting out the more Democratic precincts in Rockland County formerly in the district and leaving in mostly the ones which voted for McCain.  Furthermore, by the 2008 Presidential vote NY-17 is now 5 points less Democratic, but that’s likely somewhat misleading as a large number of those ostensible Republican votes were in precincts that consisted largely or wholly of Hasidic or other Orthodox Jews, who strongly preferred McCain to Obama but have voted for plenty of state and local Democrats and who should have little trouble supporting Engel, one of the more prominent Friends of Israel in Congress. The remainder of Rockland is now in NY-20, where it helps boost Democratic vote totals. The new Orange County portion of NY-17 also leans toward the GOP…but the Bronx and Westchester portions are so heavily Democratic that it hardly matters.  The demographics change a little bit as NY-17 gains more Hispanic residents by cutting deeper into the Central Bronx while losing African-American residents to the downward movement of NY-18 and NY-19.It remains a minority-majority district, albeit one with no clear majority.

Bottom Line: Still safe for Democrats, especially for Engel.

New York City

New York City Map

Bronx/Manhattan

Bronx & Upper Manhattan Map

Lower Manhattan Map

NY-16 (Lime Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-16: Obama 95-5

New NY-16: Obama 94-6 (-1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-16: 63% Hispanic, 36% Black, 20% White, 2% Asian, 6% Other

New NY-16: 63% Hispanic, 28% Black, 5% White, 1% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D-South Bronx)

Description: Most of the southern and central Bronx, plus the far northern portion (Inwood, Washington Heights) of Manhattan. Also includes Rikers Island.

Comment: Despite being a Voting Rights Act mandate, NY-16 was a pretty easy district to draw; it’s not like one needs to look too hard for Hispanic precincts in the Bronx.  Because NY-18 got pushed into the Bronx and NY-17 got pushed further into the Bronx, my choices were either to push NY-7 out of the Bronx entirely or send NY-16 into Manhattan. Because I wanted NY-7 to absorb some Republican parts of Long Island (I’ll get there eventually, I promise), I chose the latter option. Far northern Manhattan is mostly Hispanic as well. Rikers Island is in here because while there are residents there, there are no votes (it’s a jail) and NY-7, where the island would otherwise have been, needed actual votes more.

Bottom Line: Somehow one point less Democratic, not that Serrano or anyone else will notice much, given that this remains the most Democratic district in New York and in the nation as a whole.

NY-15 (Orange)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-15: Obama 93-6

New NY-15: Obama 91-8 (-2D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-15: 48% Hispanic, 35% Black, 28% White, 3% Asian, 5% Other

New NY-15: 36% Hispanic, 29% Black, 29% White, 4% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Charles Rangel (D-Harlem, Manhattan)

Description: Uptown Manhattan, including Harlem and East Harlem, as well as portions of the Upper East and Upper West Sides, plus Ward’s/Randall’s Islands.

Comment: The smallest Congressional District in America in area, now even smaller. It’s been pushed downtown some by the incursion of NY-16 into Manhattan. It’s now almost evenly split among white, black, and Hispanic voters.

Bottom Line: Less Hispanic than before, NY-16 contains a few more affluent whites than the old district did. Not sure whether this will make a primary challenge to Rangel amidst his ethical lapses more or less likely.

NY-14 (Olive)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-14: Obama 78-21

New NY-14: Obama 78-22 (unch)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-14: 73% White, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 5% Black

New NY-14: 65% White, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 7% Black, 3% Other

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D-East Side,Manhattan)

Description: Most of the East Side of Manhattan, from the 90s down to the Williamsburg Bridge, plus most of Midtown as well as Roosevelt Island. In Brooklyn it includes portions of Williamsburg, Downtown, Fort Greene, Prospect Heights, Park Slope, and Borough Park.

Comment: Since NY-12 now stays out of Manhattan completely, the Lower East Side is in here. The Brookyn parts are entirely new to this district, as Maloney’s current district instead crosses the East River into Queens. There’s none of Queens in here but there’s not much to complain about as these are, other than heavily Orthodox Borough Park, the most Manhattan-like parts of Brooklyn in terms of demographics and voting patterns; they’re here because most of these precincts (i.e. mostly white and liberal) are poor fits for VRA compliant districts.  

Bottom Line: No real changes.

NY-08  (Lavender Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-08: 74-26

New NY-08: Obama 80-20 (+6D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-08: 75% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 6% Black, 2% Other

New NY-08: 56% White, 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 4% Black, 3% Other

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D-West Side, Manhattan)

Description:  In Manhattan, this district starts on the Upper West Side and then runs downtown to cover much of Lower Manhattan including most of Chinatown, though it gives up some of Lower Manhattan up to shore up NY-13. It crosses the Brooklyn Bridge and then runs all the way down to Bath Beach , taking in all or part of Brooklyn Heights, Carroll Gardens, Sunset Park, Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Bensonhurst in between.

Comment: This is one of many districts used to cover Republican-leaning parts of South Brookyn, overwhelming the GOP voters of Borough Park, Bay Ridge, and Bensonhurst with Manhattan liberals. It probably shows up as being more Democratic due to my effort to give the district more of northwest Brooklyn (which is heavily Democratic) to make the district look less gerrymandered than before. Interestingly enough, since this district now includes most of Chinatown as well as someparts of Brooklyn with large Asian-American communities, NY-8 would become the district in the state, and probably the nation outside of the West, with the highest percentage of Asian-Americans.

Bottom Line: No real changes.

Brooklyn/Staten Island

Brooklyn Map

NY-13 (Peach Tan)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-13: McCain 51-49

New NY-13: Obama 55-45 (+6D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-13: 77% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black

New NY-13: 64% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Mike McMahon (D-Staten Island)

Description: This district includes the whole of Staten Island, then crosses the Verrazano Bridge into Brooklyn, where it becomes a thin forked line. One brach runs down along the water to Coney Island while the other branch stretches narrowly through Bay Ridge and Sunset Park up into Gowanus and Red Hook, then crosses the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel into the southernmost part of Manhattan, including the Finanical District, Tribeca and SoHo.  

Comment: What a huge difference those 30,000 Manhattanites (mostly white, mostly highly educated, many of them gay/lesbian) make!  Specifically, they by themselves move this district 3 points toward the Democrats. Staten Island of course leans Republican and the Brooklyn portions of the old district weren’t much better, so most of Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst have been excised in favor of more favorable parts of Brooklyn, namely Coney Island at one end and Red Hook at the other. That pushes the district over the 50-50 line but the Manhattan portions make for a more solidly Democratic district.

Bottom Line: Mike McMahon should breathe a little easier.

NY-11 (Bright Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-11: Obama 91-9

New NY-11: Obama 81-19 (-10D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-11: 61% Black, 25% White, 12% Hispanic, 4% Asian

New NY-11: 50.05% Black, 29% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 3% Other

Incumbent: Yvette Clark (D-Prospect Gardens, Brooklyn)

Description: Entirely in Brooklyn, mostly in the central part of the borough.

Comment: The northern portions are heavily African-American (e.g Bedford-Stuyvesant) and/or Afro-Caribbean (e.g. Crown Heights) in nature. Much of the predominantly white southern portion, including parts of Borough Park, Midwood, and Homecrest, have strong Republican leanings. It’s 10 points weaker than the old NY-11, mostly because the black vote is less concentrated and because heavily Democratic non-black precincts in Red Hook and Park Slope were replaced with Republican-voting ones further south. Due to some moving around of other districts, Brownsville and East Flatbush were mostly removed from NY-11 while Bed-Stuy and portions of the Clinton Hill/Fort Greene area were added in their place.

Bottom Line: Hardly much of a cause for concern.

NY-10 (Magenta)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-10: 63% Black, 21% White, 17% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Other

New NY-10: 51% Black, 32% White, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 3% Other

Demographic Data:

Old NY-10: 91-9

New NY-10: Obama 78-21 (-13D)

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D-East New York, Brooklyn)

Description: Mostly in Brooklyn, with a portion in Queens on the westernmost parts of the Rockaway Peninsula. Includes all or part of Flatbush, East Flatbush, East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie, Marine Park, Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, Brighton Beach, and Gravesend.

Comment: Same idea as NY-11 above. In this case, the north and east sections are heavily black (Brownsville, East New York) and constitute a majority while the mostly white sections to the south or west (Gravesend, Manhattan Beach, Brighton Beach, Rockaway Park) vote Republican. The Democratic performance dropped dramatically, but that’s good news in a case such as this because it just means fewer wasted votes.

Bottom Line: Should be no real change.

Queens

Queens Map

NY-12 (Robin’s Egg Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-12: Obama 86-13

New NY-12: Obama 82-17 (-4D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-12: 48% Hispanic, 39% White, 16% Asian, 11% Black,

New NY-12: 51% Hispanic, 24% White, 12% Asian, 9% Black, 4% Other

Incumbent: Nydia Velasquez (D-Williamsburg, Brooklyn)

Description: Split between Queens and Brooklyn.

Comment: It’s a miscellaneous collection consisting primarily of predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn but including most of Valasquez’ home neighborhood of Williamsburg. It’s changed a bit though as it’s much more compact than before; it no longer includes any of Manhattan and leaves the bayfront portions of Brooklyn such as Red Hook and Sunset Park behind. Instead NY-12 moves east and north and takes in parts of Queens such as Long Island City and portions of Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, and Corona as well as the Brooklyn neighborhoods of Greenpoint and Bushwick. These changes were made mostly because sending three districts via bridge from lower Manhattan to Brooklyn required getting NY-12 out of their way. (It looked better before I discovered that Joe Crowley’s home in Woodside was right in it’s path. )

Bottom Line: Obviously still a safe Democratic district for Velasquez or any other nominated Democratic candidate. There is now a Hispanic majority here.

NY-07 (Light Gray)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-07: 45% White, 36% Hispanic, 19% Black, 13% Asian, 2% Other

New NY-07: 48% White, 24% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 9% Black, 4% Other

Demographic Data:

Old NY-07: Obama 79-20

New NY-07: Obama 66-33 (-13D)

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D-Woodside, Queens)

Description: Geographically, mostly a long thin strand running from Astoria and Woodside in Queens out Northern Boulevard and then the North Shore out to portions of Huntington, including portions of northern Nassau and Suffolk Counties, with another branch going into southeastern and central sections of the Bronx via the Whitestone Bridge.

Comment: NY-07, being a rare district in this part of the state not presently subject to VRA constraints, figures prominently in removal of Peter King and his district from the delegation.  With the exception of a few more diverse areas, the North Shore area leans Republican from one end to the other, one reason that much of it is in the current NY-03. One key to keeping this district from falling into swing territory is that the relatively small section of the Bronx actually represents about 20% of the district’s population, and that the predominantly white precincts in that borough that would be of limited help to a Democrat (many of which actually are in the current NY-07) were placed elsewhere, leaving overwhelmingly black or Hispanic precincts who collectively gave Obama 86% of their votes. The Queens portion of the new district also leaves out some of the whiter and less Democratic parts of that borough that had been in NY-07 before. 66% leaves plenty of Democratic margin, even if the 2008 turnout numbers represent something of a ceiling – in part because Long Island figures to continue to diversify.

Bottom Line: Crowley might be the most ticked off Democrat in the delegation as he gets a mostly new set of constituents and one less friendly than he is used to. But someone has to take those Republican votes on Long Island and every other candidate for that task is limited either by already being something of a swing district or by VRA compliance requirements.

NY-06 (Teal Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-06: Obama 89-11

New NY-06: Obama 72-27 (-17D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-06: 54% Black, 19% White, 17% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 4% Other

New NY-06: 50.01% Black, 36% White, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 3% Other

Incumbents: Gregory Meeks (D- St. Albans, Queens); Peter King (R-Seaford)

Description: Built around a primarily black section of Eastern Queens, it has one branch that runs west to pick up parts of Brownsville and East New York in Brooklyn, taking in Broad Channel and portions of Howard Beach along the way and another that runs to the east along the south shore of Long Island’s Nassau County, including most of the Five Towns area but growing narrower until reaching the Nassau County border near Massapequa.

Comment: I’m pretty sure King’s not actually going to run here. When I was drawing this map, I didn’t know where exactly his home was; I’d have actually guessed it was in the NY-03 I drew with Carolyn McCarthy around, which is probably the district he’d choose to run in anyway. Someone else’s contest entry pointed out the precinct, I looked it up, and what do you know, his precinct’s in the (barely) black-majority NY-06.  

Even more than the two Brooklyn districts NY-10 and NY-11, this is NY-06 a classic “blacks and Republicans” district, avoiding any significant areas predominantly white precincts where Obama did well, since those voters don’t help this district comply with the VRA and are more needed elsewhere. The Nassau portion of the district is mostly strongly Republican; diverse areas in southern Nassau County, such as Freeport, where Obama performed well were put into NY-3. I’m a little scared of “blacks and Republicans” districts in some contexts (for fear that the racial turnout gap could become large enough to produce some unpleasant Election Day surprises)  but this one is a bit different in that most of the predominantly black neighborhoods in this area are middle-class and well-educated (and thus less likely to suffer from extremely low turnout) and that incumbent Meeks seems like the kind of African-American politician perfectly capable of winning over some white votes (and even Obama’s worst precincts in here were in the 30s rather than the single digits) if he needs them.  

Bottom Line:  Probably another unhappy incumbent, even if he’s still safe.

NY-09 (Sky Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-09: Obama 55-44

New NY-09: Obama 68-31 (+13D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-09: 71% White, 15% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Other

New NY-09: 40% White, 26% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 9% Black, 7% Other

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D-Forest Hills, Queens)

Description: Now almost entirely in Queens, it’s based, just like the current NY-09 in a group of mostly white Queens neighborhoods such as Maspeth, Middle Village, Woodhaven, Ozone Park, most of Howard Beach,  and incumbent Weiner’s own home turf in Forest Hills. It’s become a no-majority district now because it’s border areas in the east and south, particularly the small portion in Brooklyn, have many largely black and Hispanic precincts, and because the Asian-American population has been increased slightly.

Comment: Because other districts are used to cover Republican parts of southern Brooklyn, the Democratic share of the vote in this new district shoots way up. There wasn’t quite enough room to get this district out onto Long Island, so I ended up just trying to make sure the more GOP-friendly parts of Queens were in here rather than in NY-04 or NY-07 to the extent possible.

Bottom Line: Anthony Weiner wasn’t and isn’t in any real danger here. The danger is that he has known higher office aspirations, just like his predecessor Chuck Schumer, so I expect this to be an open seat sooner rather than later. A 55-44 open seat is a cause for concern, but an open seat in the new district would not be.

NY-04 (Red)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-05: Obama 63-36

New NY-04: Obama 60-39 (-3D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-05: 56% White, 25% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black

New NY-04: 54% White, 18% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 9% Black, 5% Other

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)

Description: The new NY-04 most closely resembles the existing NY-05, split between Queens and Long Island.

Comment:

This district had the highest Asian population of any district outside of Hawaii and California, but they’ve been spread out some more in this map; those areas in Queens are less Democrat-voting than the neighborhoods that have replaced them in this NY-04; note that the black population, mostly in the Queens portion of the district, increased from 6% to 9%. The Long Island portion of the district, about 41% of it’s residents, narrowly voted for McCain, but 72% of the Queens section (a diverse set of neighborhoods such as East Flushing, Oakland Gardens, and parts of Jamaica Estates, collectively 59% of the district’s population) voted for Obama. In North Hempstead in Nassau, Ackerman has a lot of the same constituents he’s used to, including those in his Roslyn home as well as all or parts of Albertson and Westbury, though Great Neck, Port Washington, and most of Manhasset are moved as NY-07 and NY-18 now move into Nassau County. The Oyster Bay and Suffolk County portions would be entirely new to Ackerman and neither, with a few exceptions (Greenlawn and Huntington Station) are particularly friendly towards Democrats. The Oyster Bay portions are mostly in Peter King’s current NY-03. Essentially, this district’s Democratic base in Queens is used to cover some heavily Republican parts of Long Island, including parts of Garden City, and a large chunk of the town of Smithtown.  

Bottom Line: Ackerman has more territory to cover and a bunch of new constitutents, which probably won’t make him happy. But he isn’t seriously endangered by any of the changes and his successor here should be a fellow Democrat as well, especially given the long-term trends on Long Island.

Long Island

Nassau County Map

Suffolk County Map

NY-03 (Medium Purple)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-04: Obama 58-41

Old NY-03: McCain 52-47

New NY-03: Obama 56-44

Demographic Data:

Old NY-04: 69% White, 19% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

Old NY-03 94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-03: 68% White, 16% Black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola); Peter King (R-Seaford)

Description: A roughly eliptical swath across Long Island, covering parts of the Town of Babylon in Suffolk County, interior portions of Nassau County, with a handful of precincts in the far eastern part of Queens. It’s mostly a fusion of the current NY-03 with the current NY-04.

Comment: Here’s where things really get interesting.   The eastern half of this district is as of now mostly represented by Republican Peter King while the western half is mostly represented by Democrat Carolyn McCarthy. And then there are two entirely new pieces, one in the east in the Town of Babylon and one in the west in Queens. As one might expect from me at this point, 75% of the 23,000 Queens residents of this district are African-American, as are a substantial minority of the eastern portion which includes the African-American majority village of North Amityville. The western half, full of diverse communities like Valley Stream, Uniondale, Freeport, and McCarthy’s own Mineola, predominates, as the demographic numbers clearly indicate; this looks a whole lot more like McCarthy’s district than King’s. In a race between the two, I’d expect McCarthy to be the clear favorite.

Bottom Line: For Peter King, it’s a matter of picking his poison. The current NY-03 has been placed in six different districts, only two of which are halfway plausible places for him to run; NY-07 contains only a few of his old constituents and runs all the way into the Bronx, NY-04 is mostly (population-wise) in Queens and only contains a few of his old constituents, NY-06 contains his house but is mostly in Queens and is majority African-American, and while NY-01 may be the least Democrat-leaning of all his options, that’s almost entirely unfamiliar territory further out in Suffolk County and his obnoxious screeds on TV don’t play well in the Hamptons anyway. That leaves Steve Israel’s NY-02 and Carolyn McCarthy’s NY-03. Of those NY-03 seems the plausible choice as it contains a little more of King’s current turf than NY-02 does and includes most of King’s base in Massapequa, Farmingdale, and Bethpage.  Even here he’s a clear underdog against McCarthy.

NY-02 (Dark Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-02: Obama 56-43

New NY-02 Obama 56-44 (unch)

Demographic Data –

Old NY-02: 78% White, 14% Hispanic, 10% Black, 3% Asian

New NY-02: 74% White, 10% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D-Dix Hills)

Description: Shaped a bit like a big-headed lizard with a long tail section. Predominantly in Suffolk County, it covers most of the Town of Brookhaven and southern portions of Smithtown, with a tail through interior portions of western Suffolk (small portions towns of Babylon and Islip and southern portions of Huntington and stretching into a strand running through the middle of eastern portions of Nassau County, as far west as Hempstead Village.

Comments: This district remains about exactly as Democratic-leaning as it was before, but has changed considerably. It loses its North Shore territory but picks up a different part of the North Shore, around Port Jefferson. Only its central portion, around Israel’s own Dix Hills, and Republican-leaning southeast portion in the Town of Islip remain largely intact. The Nassau County portion, expanded considerably from the old NY-02, picks up some of Peter King’s old base around Levittown and Hicksville but also includes heavily Democratic Hempstead Village, which makes up for not having such Democratic strongholds as Brentwood and Central Islip anymore. It probably has more of Peter King’s old constituents than any district save NY-03. This district had to be altered considerably to help take out Peter King and help lock down what would otherwise be a shaky NY-01.

Bottom Line: Israel’s probably not a happy camper as the power of incumbency goes down dramaticallly with brand new constituents, even if the generic Democratic advantage remains the same as it does here. It’s still hard to imagine Peter King winning here as he hasn’t represented many of these people and would have to move inland considerably to belong to this district.  

NY-01 (Medium Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-01: Obama 52-44

New NY-01: Obama 55-43 (+3D)

Demographic Data –

Old NY-01: 89% White, 8% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Asian

New NY-01: 76% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D-Southhampton)

Description: Based in eastern Suffolk County, including both the North and South forks and all the Hamptons, and then runs along the South Shore to Bay Shore then over Robert Moses Causeway to Fire Island and along Ocean Parkway through beach barrier islands to Point Lookout, Long Beach, and Atlantic Beach in Nassau County.  The tail becomes wider at one point to include Brentwood and Central Islip.

Comments: A marginal Democratic district shorn up somewhat by the shedding of mostly (apart from Port Jefferson) unfriendly portions of the Towns of Brookhaven and Smithtown and their replacement with the barrier islands in Nassau County and heavily Democratic Central Islip and Brentwood (mostly responsible for the significant jump in the Hispanic population) which more than make up for the Republican-leaning South Shore area (some of which is now represented by Peter King)that  this new map includes. It’s admittedly bit of a gerrymander as this new NY-01 borders (by water) Queens despite also including Shelter Island.  

Bottom Line: This should help keep this seat in Democratic hands.