Author: Crisitunity

• CA-Sen (pdf): According to the Public Policy Institute of California, Barbara Boxer is holding fairly good approval ratings, as she approaches a possibly competitive (and definitely expensive) re-election: 53/32, really no different from her stodgier colleague Dianne Feinstein, 54/32. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who isn’t running again, fares much worse: 30/61.

• CO-Sen: As we’re staring down the barrel of a competitive Democratic primary in the Senate race, three of the state’s five House Dems have gotten behind incumbent appointee Michael Bennet (John Salazar, Jared Polis, and Betsy Markey), along with fellow Sen. Mark Udall. However, Diana DeGette and Ed Perlmutter are staying neutral. Other Bennet backers include current state House speaker Terrance Carroll.

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The Cook County Dems made their endorsements in the 2010 primaries, which are less than half a year away. No major surprises: they endorsed state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias for Senate and incumbent Pat Quinn for Governor. That rankled Quinn’s rival, Comptroller Dan Hynes, who hit Quinn for seeking machine backing when, back in his reformer days, Quinn had been an advocate for open primaries. Meanwhile, in the Senate primary, upstart Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman is taking the clean politics approach, saying that he’ll accept no PAC money for his campaign.

• MA-Sen: The fields are starting to solidify in Massachusetts: Rep. John Tierney, from MA-06 in Boston’s northern suburbs, decided against a run. He has less money than his fellow House members and polled in the single digits in the lone poll of the primary. Rep. Richard Neal is the only House member left who initially seemed like a potential candidate (mostly because of his bankroll), but his silence in the last week has been telling. On the GOP side of the aisle, state Senator Scott Brown got in the race over the weekend; with Mitt Romney, Andy Card, Kerry Healey, and Christy Mihos out, Brown is about as good as it’s going to get for the Republicans.

• NH-Sen: Here’s one more Republican from the Republican wing of the party pondering a run in the New Hampshire Senate primary: businessman and RNC member Sean Mahoney. Mahoney says he’s gotten a push from the conservative grassroots to run, as many of them seem uneasy with the Beltway coronation of Kelly Ayotte, whose inability to take a position… any position… is taking on epic proportions. (If Mahoney’s name seems vaguely familiar, he lost the 2002 NH-01 GOP primary to Jeb Bradley.)

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Here’s the rumor du jour, and it’s a doozy: Rudy Giuliani is being pushed by state GOP leaders to run for Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand instead of for Governor; apparently the state GOP is convinced that Andrew Cuomo, not David Paterson, will be the Dems’ nominee next year. Nobody has polled Gillibrand/Giuliani before, but that seems like it would be a close race, if the Gillibrand/Pataki numbers are any indication (of course, there’s a big stylistic difference between the vanilla George Pataki and the dictatorial Rudy, just that they’re both known quantities at this point). Perhaps (between this rumor and Rudy’s failed coup against Ed Cox) sensing that the Rudy won’t be getting into the Governor’s race — or maybe just because of his own special brand of tone-deafness — ex-Rep. Rick Lazio made his formal announcement today that he’s running for Governor.

• AZ-Gov: In the “blast from the past” file, former Governor Fife Symington is now considering a comeback by running in the GOP primary against appointed Governor Jan Brewer. That’s the same Symington who was forced out of office in 1997 after conviction for bank fraud, although his conviction was overturned on appeal and he was subsequently pardoned by Bill Clinton. Strangely, we could see a re-run of the 1990 gubernatorial election, if Symington and Dem AG Terry Goddard face off against each other again.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more poll (from Monmouth) showing Chris Christie with a persistent, but shrinking, edge over Jon Corzine in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. Among likely voters, Christie has a 47-39 edge (with 5 for Chris Daggett), much better than August’s 50-36 Christie lead but comparable to July’s 45-37 lead. Hold onto your hats, though: among registered voters, Corzine actually leads, 41-40 (with 6 for Daggett). In the fine print, Corzine is continuing to solidify his standing among Democrats, up to 77% among Dems (up from 73% in August and 67% in July). The challenge here, apparently, will be getting those Dems in the ‘unlikely voter’ column to show up.

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber doesn’t seem like he’ll have the Dem primary to himself: former SoS Bill Bradbury looks like he’s on track to run. Bradbury has hired a campaign manager, and announces that Kitzhaber’s predecessor as Governor, Barbara Roberts, will be on hand for his announcement next week. One other possible challenger in the Dem primary, one that no one had thought of before, is Clackamas County Commission Chair Lynn Peterson. Peterson is 40 and still building her reputation; cynics’ knee-jerk reaction might be to think she’s angling for the Lt. Governor slot, but Oregon doesn’t even have a Lt. Governor. Finally, everyone’s still waiting to see what Rep. Peter DeFazio does; he was supposed to have made a decision by Labor Day but says he’ll keep on anaylzing his choices.

• AR-02: Politico has an unusual rumor: former US Attorney and former Karl Rove right-hand-man Tim Griffin is considering a run against Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in the Little Rock-based 2nd (which, in wake of 2008, is, at R+5, the most Dem-friendly district in Arkansas). Considering that Griffin had earlier pondered and declined a run in AR-Sen, the step down doesn’t make much sense at all, as he’d most likely have a better shot against the vulnerable Blanche Lincoln, who hasn’t polled well lately. The entrenched Snyder may create the appearance of being vulnerable because of his bank account, but that’s mostly because he refuses to fundraise during off years.

• IL-10: State Rep. Beth Coulson, running for the GOP primary nod for the open seat in the 10th against several self-funders, got endorsements from two members of the GOP House delegation: fellow suburban moderate Judy Biggert… and, in an apparent nod to the reality of what works in the 10th, from the state delegation’s wingnuttiest member, John Shimkus, last seen ducking out early from Obama’s health care address to beat the lines at the urinal.

• WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke gives the GOP a rather strong candidate against Rep. Ron Kind (or more ominously, an open seat, in case Kind decides to run for Governor). However, Dems succeeded in taking Kapanke down a peg and dinging him for $38,100 ($100 in statutory damages plus $38K in legal fees) for violating state open records laws.

• NYC: One more poll of the Democratic primaries for the city offices, before tomorrow’s election. The mayor’s race is actually the least interesting, with Comptroller William Thompson beating city councilor Tony Avella 46-17. Ex-PA Mark Green has pole position in the Public Advocate’s race, but the question is whether he can beat the 40% threshold in order to avoid a runoff. Currently, he’s at 36%, with city councilor Bill DeBlasio at 20%. The Comptroller’s race is almost certainly headed for a runoff, but city councilor John Liu seems to be breaking out from the pack, at 34%; he leads Melinda Katz at 23% and David Yassky at 19%. In case you’re wondering what’s up with the Manhattan DA race, there is one recent poll of the race, an internal from the Cyrus Vance Jr. camp. It gives Vance a 30-24 edge over Leslie Crocker Synder, with Richard Aborn at 15.

• Census: The Census Bureau is severing its relationship with ACORN, which was working with the Census to promote Census participation. Loosely translated, Director Robert Groves said that the organization was enough of a distraction that it was becoming a net liability instead of asset in terms of getting people to participate in the Census.

According to the Boston Globe, Rep. Ed Markey from MA-07 won’t run in the special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat:

Markey, a Malden Democrat, said he could do more as a senior member in the House than as a freshman US senator. He has been active on global warming issues and on health care.

“I have had the honor to serve the people of the Seventh Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for 33 years, and am now the eighth most senior Democrat,” he said in a statement. “I believe that my leadership positions and seniority in the House allow me to accomplish more for my Congressional District and for Massachusetts. I have therefore decided not to become a candidate for the Senate.

Markey’s seniority would certainly be hard to give up. Although he has the largest warchest of all the current members of the House delegation, he probably also saw only a difficult path to victory, with AG Martha Coakley with a substantial polling lead thanks to her statewide presence, and with Reps. Stephen Lynch and Michael Capuano already battling it out for Boston-area votes.

UPDATE (James): Andy Card is out, too:

Former White House Chief of Staff Andy Card (R) announced Friday night that he would not run. “Now is not the right time for me to enter a political race,” he said in a statement.

• CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore wants you to remember that he’s still running against Carly Fiorina, regardless of what the NRSC tries to tell you. When John Cornyn sent out some platitudes referring to his strong recruits in Kelly Ayotte and Carly Fiorina, DeVore let the world know in no uncertain terms what he really thinks of the NRSC.

“I welcome Senator Cornyn’s endorsement of Carly Fiorina, my probable opponent for the Republican nomination to defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010. Under John Cornyn, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has racked up an impressive string of endorsements in support of non-conservative, unpopular, poorly vetted candidates across the nation. These candidacies have thus far gone on to flounder or implode.”

Questions continue to circulate about HP’s sales of hundreds of millions of dollars in printers and other equipment to Iran, despite the bans on trade with the nation… and more generally about her ability to close the deal in view of how poorly CEOs have done in statewide races before.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford’s prospects have seemed to be on a roller coaster ride since his Appalachian Trail adventure, and this week he’s going through another dip: now the state GOP has called for his resignation. State party chair Karen Floyd made the announcement yesterday evening.

• NC-10: Congratulations to Rep. Patrick McHenry; one of the Beltway’s most eligible bachelors, he’s finally off the market. He announces that he’s engaged to Giulia Cangiano, a GAO economist whom he met through mutual friends.

• OH-17: He’s baaaack! Ex-Rep. Jim Traficant is out of prison, and already talking about running for office. He says there’s a 50/50 chance he’d run for his old seat, although it’s held by a Democrat, Tim Ryan. That didn’t stop him before; he ran against Ryan as an independent in 2002 and got 15% of the vote. Traficant is beaming down to a local teabagging function this weekend to get reacquainted with his constituents.

• OH-18: Although Republicans were disappointed when they didn’t get state Sen. Jimmy Stewart to run, they’ve found another state Senator to go up against Rep. Zack Space: Bob Gibbs of Holmes County. Most of Gibbs’ district is in the 16th, but Holmes County is in the 18th.

• PA-07: Republican Pat Meehan, the former US Attorney for eastern Pennsylvania, who recently bailed out of the gubernatorial primary, is ready to announce his candidacy in the 7th, where Rep. Joe Sestak is leaving behind an open seat. Meehan will make his formal announcement on Monday. Although the seat is D+3, Meehan (the former DA of Delaware County) is strong enough to make this race a very competitive even against highly touted Dem state Rep. Bryan Lentz.

• SC-02: Both heckler Joe Wilson and his Democratic opponent, Rob Miller, are now raising money like gangbusters. Miller is up above $750,000 in contributions now since the Obama address. Wilson has also raised $200,000, although not much of that seems to be coming online: at SlateCard, the GOP equivalent of ActBlue, he’s raised a total of $620 from 13 supporters. PPP‘s Tom Jensen, who polled SC-02 last night, is teasing bad results for Wilson.

• VA-05: Although this guy seems to be the only GOP candidate in the 5th so far, don’t expect him to be the nominee… especially now that he was just convicted on a concealed weapons violation. Bradley Rees was fined $100 in a local court after police found two pistols in his glove compartment. Most attention focused on state Sen. Rob Hurt as the likely GOP challenger to Rep. Tom Perriello.

• FL-Sen: Today is the day we say goodbye to Mel Martinez, resigning to… well, he hasn’t figured it out yet. Martinez leaves sounding rather downbeat, having been pilloried by much of his party for his work on immigration. And today we say hello to George LeMieux, Charlie Crist’s former right-hand man and now body-double in the Senate. Interesting trivia: Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer the youngest Senator; LeMieux is a youthful 40.

• MA-Sen: The rumor du jour coming out of the Bay State is that Andy Card, the former Bush White House chief of staff, is interested in the Senate special election for the GOP. Card would be a long-shot (as would any Republican), but would at least come to the race armed with a giant Rolodex full of donors. (Wait… do people even use Rolodexes any more?)

• UT-Sen: Is Bob Bennett just ready for retirement, or is he trying to move to the left of the the gaggle of far-right primary challengers, hoping they split the wingnut vote and let him win by occupying all of the quasi-moderate Huntsman-style space in the GOP field? Either way, he took a few provocative actions yesterday, as one of only four GOPers to stand and applaud Barack Obama’s call-out of the “death panel” lie last night — which earned him the spot of Public Enemy #1 at RedState — and earlier as one of only five GOPers to vote in favor of cloture on the Cass Sunstein nomination, who currently holds the #2 spot on the list that Glenn Beck is holding in his hand.

• NY-Gov: This is a weird-ass rumor, but apparently several different sources are telling the Weekly Standard that Hillary Clinton may bag on being Secretary of State in order to run for Governor of New York. Take with… I dunno, is there something much stronger than salt? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani was supposed to be in the middle of a power play involving remaking the leadership of the state GOP in preparation for a gubernatorial run, but seems to be losing that proxy battle, as the insufficiently-pro-Rudy Ed Cox still seems on track to take over as state GOP chair.

• TN-Gov: Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge in the GOP primary for the open gubernatorial race in Tennessee, according to his own polling, done by the Tarrance Group. Wamp has 22% of the vote, followed by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey at 15, Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons at 14, and Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam at 12. Wamp also led the field with 22 in a poll several months ago from Southern Political Report.

• CA-11: There are already a bunch of next-to-no-names running against Jerry McNerney in the R+1 11th, but the GOP has dug up someone who’s at least one notch above that: Tony Amador, the former U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District of California under the Bush administration, giving him some sort-of-non-partisan law-and-order cred. Amador was the son of undocumented immigrants — but does that make him the kind of courageous by-the-bootstraps story that Republicans love, or unacceptable to the GOP’s rabid nativist base?

• MO-08: Here’s an appealing-sounding recruit for the Dems to go against Jo Ann Emerson: college instructor and Army vet Tommy Sowers. He served two tours in Iraq, then taught at West Point, and now teaches at Missouri University of Science and Technology. He’ll still have an uphill fight against Emerson, who hasn’t drawn tough competition since her initial 1996 election, in this district that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff lately at R+15.

• SC-02: If last night were a movie, the poster would say “Starring Barack Obama, and introducing Joe Wilson!” With one over-the-top line of dialogue, Wilson was catapulted from back-bench anonymity, to front-and-center among one-dimensional cartoonish House Republican villains, right next to Michele Bachmann and Jean Schmidt. While Wilson privately apologized last night, he is refusing today to publicly apologize in the House well, and Democratic House leadership seems eager to let that slide, not wanting to get distracted from the more pressing matter of health care. However, the assault from the netroots has been merciless; Wilson’s 2010 opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller (who came within 8% of Wilson in 2008 in this R+9 district), has hit the fundraising jackpot, raising over $200K since last night according to the DCCC. (Prior to last night, Miller had $49K CoH while Wilson had $212K.) This includes $135K alone at Act Blue (hint hint). UPDATE: PPP teases that they’re going into the field tonight to poll SC-02; they’re asking for help in drafting the poll, so be sure and give them a hand.

• CA-St. Ass.: In case you were under a rock yesterday (or had a particularly aggressive work-safe web-blocker), Republican Mike Duvall resigned immediately from his state Assembly seat in northern Orange County after getting caught on an open microphone talking in lascivious detail about his sexual transactions with a oil-and-gas lobbyist. The resulting special election in AD-72 doesn’t seem likely to go to the Dems — Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is set to run for the seat — but it’s the least hardcore part of the OC, where John McCain won only 50-47, so it’s worth paying some attention. (See californianwonder‘s diary for more.)

• House: Here’s a GOP poll that I’m sharing simply because of the sheer irrelevance of its premise: that Nancy Pelosi is the most polarizing House Speaker since Newt Gingrich. Remember that there was exactly one Speaker in between Gingrich and Pelosi. Should it be any surprise that the highly visible Pelosi is considered more polarizing than the shapeless, flavorless DeLay-puppet Dennis Hastert… or that the GOP paid good money to ascertain that?

• CO-Sen: The NRSC got its sort-of-top-tier challenger to Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton filed to form an exploratory committee and launched her campaign website, suggesting that the exploratory period will be a brief one. Norton’s never been elected on her own (just while joined to popular Gov. Bill Owens), but, unlike the rest of the GOP field, she’s at least known statewide.

• CT-Sen, AR-Sen: Chris Dodd finally made his decision about which Senate committee to chair, and he opted to return to Banking, instead of continuing at HELP where he shepherded through health care reform legislation in Ted Kennedy’s absence. He still has a lot on his plate; he’ll be focusing on bolstering financial services regulations and creating a new banking consumer protection agency (all stuff that would seem less likely to happen if Tim Johnson took over Banking). The WaPo says that all signs point to Tom Harkin of Iowa, #2 on HELP, ditching his coveted Agriculture chair to take over HELP. This means the Agriculture chair is likely to fall to Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (bypassing a few other more senior Senators with better chairs), who, while not from a big farm state, is facing a difficult re-election and will benefit from the profile and money that come from a chair.

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon campaign released an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt that’s getting a little stale (taken in mid-May, long before Melancon announced), but that shows Melancon in striking distance. The head-to-head has David Vitter beating Melancon 47-37 (and Melancon winning the bogus “after hearing positive info” vote 49-41). The good news is that Vitter’s re-elect number is down to 39%, with 45% preferring someone new. Melancon has 35/13 favorables.

• TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst sent a letter to supporters that he’s running for re-election in 2010. While he may be the initial odds-on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Senate, I wouldn’t take this to mean he’s not running in the Senate special election — since he doesn’t need to give up his seat to run and he’d probably like to keep being Lt. Gov. if he loses the election, and there’s also still a possibility that KBH doesn’t resign after all, if she senses the gubernatorial primary heading south on her. (H/t DTM,B!)

• AK-Gov: No surprise here, but Democratic former state House minority leader and 2008 House candidate Ethan Berkowitz filed his candidacy papers today. He’ll likely face off against Sean Parnell, who inherited the office after Sarah Palin’s re$ignation, but first he’ll need to survive a primary against state Sen. Hollis French and Bob Poe. (Parnell will also need to survive a primary against state Rep. John Harris.)

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill picked a strange day to make his announcement, on a day when everyone is fixated on the Massachusetts Senate race instead, but today he made official what has long been suspected: he’s running for Governor. The Dem-turned-Independent state Treasurer has a $3 million warchest, giving him a big edge over incumbent Dem Deval Patrick, who has $464K (of course, if Christy Mihos wins the GOP primary, he can put all his expenses on his own tab). Polls that have included Cahill have shown him running neck-and-neck with Patrick, although Cahill is running against tradition — there has apparently never been an Independent elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.

• MN-Gov: I’ve completely lost track of how many people are now running for Minnesota Governor — let’s just say it’s a number somewhere between 10 and 800 — but one more guy got in the race on Labor Day: state Rep. Tom Rukavina, for the DFL. Rukavina is from the town of Virginia in the rural but very pro-union Iron Range.

• OR-Gov: While the Dem side of the Oregon Governor’s race is narrowing, the GOP side keeps growing: former state Senator John Lim from Portland’s eastern suburbs said he’d get in. Lim is best-known for losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden (with a whopping 34% of the vote).

• SC-Gov: While it’s unclear whether “calls for resignation” on Mark Sanford’s part will ever turn into a tangible move for impeachment or just some pre-emptive ass-covering by state Republicans so it looked like they tried, those calls are getting louder. The state’s House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, made the call yesterday, and now there’s talk of a letter with the signatures of at least 60 House GOPers (out of 72, and almost half the entire House) calling on Sanford to step down.

• VT-Gov: As we reported yesterday, Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon did in fact follow through on his decision to switch to from the Democrats to the Republican Party. However, Salmon sounds likely to run again for Auditor, saying there’s a “10% chance” he’ll run for Governor instead. Salmon said that he’d support Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie if Dubie were to run for Governor, and wouldn’t challenge him in a primary. There’s been no word from Dubie, though, on what he plans to do.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson… well, let me try to be kind here and say that he courageously ignores all that conventional wisdom about who and who not to piss off. He’s picking a fight with his hometown paper, the Orlando Sentinel, referring to them in a fundraising e-mail as “a trashy tabloid that dresses up bias and gossip as news.”

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz may have decided against a run in his current home district, the 24th, but he’s holding a fundraiser on behalf of Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, one of the three GOPers seeking the nod to go against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Bob Dold is running for the GOP nomination in the 10th District, joining state Rep. Beth Coulson and rich guys Dick Green and Bill Cadigan. Bob Dold is a lawyer who also owns a pest control business. In keeping with district’s lean, Bob Dold says that Bob Dold is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

• NE-02: Jim Esch, who’s coming off two back-to-back losses to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, switched his party affiliation to “independent” last week, but said yesterday that he has no plans to seek elected office at any level in the future. Esch defended his decision to the Omaha World-Herald: “I feel a little hypocritical when I go to Democratic parties and say, ‘I’m a Democrat’ when I don’t believe in the party.” (J)

Meanwhile, across town, state Sen. Tom White (who’s apparently still a Democrat) officially launched his campaign against Terry today.

• PA-03: Suddenly there’s a backlog of challengers to Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, the Dem freshman in this R+3 district. Republican Meadville businessman Paul Huber, who ran a heating equipment company and served on a local medical center board, filed campaign paperwork. AG’s office investigator Elaine Surma is already in the race for the GOP, and former Erie County Solicitor John Onorato sounds likely to run.

• PA-06: Here’s a likely minor, but certainly interesting, challenge to Doug Pike (who seems to have the establishment support locked down) in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 6th. Manan Trivedi is a Reading native born to Indian immigrants; he is an Iraq vet and a primary care physician. He formally announced his campaign yesterday.

• Redistricting: Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has gone off the deep end in anticipation of the next round of redistricting in Indiana: he wants to make it a felony to consider politics in the redistricting process. Um… considering that Rokita is a Republican and that Republicans are likely to control the redistricting process post-2010, I don’t quite get it. (And neither do Republican legislators, who are telling him to shut up.)

• Votes: The Hill compiles a list of 23 Democrats who have indicated opposition to “the health care plan moving through the House.” (Nancy Pelosi can afford to lose up to 38 votes.) It’s unclear what “opposition” means, and the rationale isn’t always the same (Eric Massa, for instance, opposes it, but only because he’s stuck in single-payer mode), but it’s an interesting list, generally of the vulnerable and/or the hardcore Blue Doggish (although New Jersey’s John Adler strangely stands out like a sore thumb).

Things are starting to take shape in North Carolina; Elaine Marshall, the state’s Secretary of State and first woman elected to statewide office, looks like she will become the first top-tier Democratic challenger to Richard Burr.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall filed paperwork Tuesday to create a campaign committee to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

“We’ll have a more formal announcement in the future,” said Thomas Mills, a consultant for Marshall. “We were feeling we just needed to get started in moving forward.”

Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. Charismatic former state Senator Cal Cunningham seems likely to get in as well, while former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker and Rep. Bob Etheridge are still considering it.

Rasmussen (9/8, likely Democratic voters):

Martha Coakley (D): 38

Stephen Lynch (D): 11

Ed Markey (D): 10

Michael Capuano (D): 7

John Tierney (D): 3

Some other candidate: 5

Not sure: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen acts quickly to get a look at the Democratic primary field in the Massachusetts Senate race, now that it’s clear that heavyweights Joe Kennedy II and Marty Meehan won’t be running. AG Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and the only woman in the race, has a big edge. She leads four Boston-area House members — each of whom represents 1/10th of the state, and most of whom pull in about 1/10th of the respondents.

Lots of other developments in the Bay State today. First and foremost, rumors were flying earlier today that Christy Mihos, the Independent-turned-Republican former convenience store czar and Turnpike Authority board member who’s currently running for Governor, would switch over to the Senate race, giving the GOP a top-tier candidate (albeit still a long shot for a federal office, in this dark-blue state). However, Mihos a few hours ago confirmed that he’s staying in the Governor’s race, where polls have shown him competitive.

Politico also rounds up a number of other odds and ends. One more Democrat is getting into the mix: Alan Khazei, the wealthy founder of City Year, a community service program for 20somethings. He has the potential to self-fund and might be able to tap into the youth vote. Martha Coakley, not exactly in a surprise, is getting EMILY’s List’s endorsement, which well help a lot with her fundraising (her one big disadvantage is she starts almost from scratch on money, while the House members all have huge stockpiles).

Finally, the Massachusetts legislature is poised to move on the legislation needed to create a temporary interim appointment until the special election can be held. Reportedly, legislation may be on the floor by day’s end. One other name has surfaced for the temporary appointment: Paul Kirk, former DNC chair and current head of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation.

Ex-Rep. Marty Meehan, who has the biggest war chest of any of the potential contenders for the special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat, has announced that he won’t run:

Meehan is currently the chancellor of UMass-Lowell.  He told Anderson he wants to finish the job he started there three years ago.

“While I am not ruling out the possibility of seeking public office in the future, I am fortunate to be leading a remarkable university that I love, and I just dont want to walk away,” Meehan wrote in a statement released Tuesday afternoon.

Now let’s see what happens with the $5 million that Meehan has been sitting on since leaving the House.

Meanwhile, Rep. Michael Capuano, who represents Cambridge and part of Boston in MA-08, pulled the papers to run for the Senate today.

An advisor briefed on Capuano’s intentions said the six-term Democratic congressman planned to draw nomination papers on Tuesday and will make a formal announcement about his intentions next week.

The dean of the state’s House delegation, Ed Markey, has not taken that step yet, but issued a statement over the weekend that, with Joe Kennedy II’s decision not to run, he is seriously considering the race.

• IL-Sen: The Tom Dart boomlet didn’t seem to go anywhere; the attention-grabbing Cook County Sheriff announced that, contrary to rumors, he wasn’t going to run in the Democratic Senate primary and would instead stand for re-election.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter is wasting no time in trying to define Charlie Melancon with new TV spots, saying “Life sure is swell when you’re a liberal-loving, Obama-endorsing congressman like Charlie Melancon.” The good news is: this means everyone recognizes this is a highly competitive race; conventional wisdom says define your opponent if he’s strong, ignore him if he’s weak so you don’t inadvertently give him free PR.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch, the most conservative member of the Massachusetts House delegation and a former Ironworker, has been trying to lock down the slot as organized labor’s candidate in the upcoming Senate special election, but he was booed at a health care rally and not even invited to a labor breakfast over the weekend, suggesting that his skepticism over the public option could be hurting him among the potential backers he most needs. Campaign Diairies has a handy compare-and-contrast chart of key votes among the Mass. delegation; interestingly, Lynch was also the only one to vote in favor of the Peru free trade agreement, another potential black mark for labor.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: There’s something almost Shakesperean (or Freudian?) about this story: father and son Reid are both looking at each other as dragging down each others’ poltiical fortunes. Rory sees Harry’s presence on the ballot as hampering his potential gubernatorial run, while Harry sees Rory’s run as hurting his senate re-election bid.

• TX-Sen: There’s been increasing chatter about a run for the Democratic Republican Senate nomination in the possibly-upcoming special election by Dallas mayor Tom Leppert. He’d start out at a financial and name rec disadvantage compared with Bill White and John Sharp, though, having just been in office for half a term.

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett may be in for some tough sledding in the GOP primary in the Utah Senate race, but he can count on the support of his fellow Senator Orrin Hatch, who gave Bennett a full-throated endorsement last week. Buried in the story, though, is something more troubling: Bennett managed to finish in last place at a Utah County GOP straw poll, where AG Mark Shurtleff won with 42% and ultra-right weirdo Cherilyn Eager got 32%. Bennett is also challenging the legality of Shurtleff’s fundraising; Bennett alleges commingling of federal and state accounts at Shurtleff’s Wasatch Shotgun Blast fundraising picnic (Utah has very lax limits on state fundraising).  

• AZ-Gov: A poll for Arizona Capital Times has, buried in the fine print, some very alarming numbers for appointed GOP Gov. Jan Brewer. They don’t poll her on head-to-heads, but she has perilously low re-elects: 18% say they’ll vote for her, 46% say they’ll vote for someone else, and 36% are undecided. More evidence that the anti-governor tide is high on both sides of the aisle. Sensing her vulnerability (following a budget standoff in which the conservative Brewer found herself to the left of her legislature), primary opponents are considering the race, including state Treasurer Dean Martin and polarizing Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

• GA-Gov: There are now seven viable candidates running for the GOP nomination for Georgia Governor, as state Sen. Jack Jeff Chapman, who represents Brunswick on the coast, got in the race. The little-known Chapman has ruffled some feathers fighting overdevelopment along the coast.

• NH-Gov: John DiStaso points to a couple GOP challengers sniffing out the race against Democratic incumbent Gov. John Lynch, one of the few gubernatorial races left in the country that falls in either “Safe” category. Leading the way is behind-the-scenes conservative activist Karen Testerman, founder of Cornerstone Family Research, who apparently feels ready to step in front of the curtain. Another rumored name is state Sen. Chuck Morse. Little-known businessman Jack Kimball is the only confirmed candidate.

• VA-Gov: We’ve had a deluge of polls in Virginia in the last week, some showing some a tightening race, some not. The newest offering from SurveyUSA definitely falls into the “not” column, giving Republican AG Bob McDonnell a 54-42 lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds (the same margin as their previous poll). Crosstabs show that Deeds has pulled into the lead in northern Virginia, but is still way behind in the rest of the state.

• VT-Gov: Here’s someone actually considering switching from the Dems to the GOP: state Auditor Tom Salmon, whose father was Democratic governor in the 1970s and who defeated incumbent GOPer Randy Brock in 2006. Republicans are trying to spin this as a referendum on local Dems being too liberal, but there may be some garden-variety ambition behind this: Salmon says he plans to run for re-election, but may also be considering a run for Governor if Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie doesn’t run, and this seems an easier way to get into the general election than through the already-crowded Dem field.

• AK-AL: Rep. Don Young, who recently drew a strong Democratic challenger in the form of state Rep. Harry Crawford, will also have to run the gauntlet of a strong primary opponent too. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who got nearly 10% of the vote in his independent campaign for governor in 2006 and since then has seen his profile increase via his anti-Sarah Palin blogging efforts, said he’ll run against Young as a GOPer. Crawford gets good notices from local observers, using words like “old-school,” “blue-collar,” “backwoods,” and “gritty” to describe him, which may be a better matchup against the crusty former tugboat captain than the more polished Ethan Berkowitz was last year.

• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis made it official; he’s out of the House in 2010. He’ll be running for Cook County Board President instead. The 7th is D+35, so spare us the hand-wringing.

• IL-14: This could take us up to five Republicans vying to take back the 14th from Democratic Rep. Bill Foster: state Senator Randy Hultgren is now exploring the race. This could get more than a little inconvenient for crown prince Ethan Hastert, the presumed GOP frontrunner: remember that a bitter primary between dairy magnate Jim Oberweis and st. Sen. Chris Lauzen put a crimp on GOP chances in the 2008 special election here that Foster won.

• LA-02: I don’t know if there was anyone out there fretting that we weren’t going to get a top-tier Democratic candidate to go up against Rep. Joe Cao, but if there was, they can rest easy. State Sen. Cedric Richmond, who didn’t make it into the runoff in the primary against ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson last year, announced he’ll run again in 2010. State Rep. Juan LaFonta and state Sen. Cheryl Gray are also likely Dem candidates in the D+25 seat.

• LA-03: Roll Call takes another look at the many players jostling to take over for Charlie Melancon in the now R+12 3rd. Dept. of Natural Resources head Scott Angelle gets top billing, but nobody is sure whether he’d run as a Democrat or Republican. On the Dem side, state Rep. Damon Baldone, state Rep. Fred Mills, Ascension Parish sheriff Jeff Wiley, and attorney Ravi Sangisetty also get mentions, while other prominent GOPers in the mix are Lafourche Parish sheriff Craig Webre, state Rep. Nickie Monica, former state House speaker Hunt Downer, Plaquemines Parish president Billy Nungesser Jr., and former state Senate candidate Jeff Landry. Complicating the candidates’ decision to run is winning may be a pretty lame prize, seeing that the 3rd may be on the district elimination docket following the 2010 census, with parts of it possibly being subsumed into the nearby 2nd.

• MO-04: Sensing vulnerability or at least a possible retirement, a third Republican has piled on, against 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton. James Scholz, president of a computer security company, has filed to run. Skelton looks like he’s going to stay and fight, though; he has five fundraisers scheduled for the next two months, including one with Steny Hoyer.

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy may get a real challenge for once, from Kevin Cramer, the Republican chair of the state’s Public Service Commission (which regulates utilities). Cramer lost two races to Pomeroy in the 1990s, but this time he points to an NRCC-commissioned internal poll that has him within 4 points of Pomeroy, 46-42.

• NC-11: Local physician Daniel Eichenbaum has been in contact with the NRCC about a run against Heath Shuler. His biggest selling point: if he wins, he promises to stay for only one term. (That ought to get the NRCC interested, seeing as how they just love open seats.)

• SC-03: A bit more winnowing of the field in the dark-red 3rd, as businessman and engineer Stuart Carpenter pulled the plug on his campaign and endorsed state Rep. Rex Rice.

• WA-09: Better-than-usual GOP prospects started eyeing Adam Smith’s seat early this year, speculating that a special election might be in the offing if Smith (an early Obama endorser) got an administration job. That never happened, and now one of them, moderate state Rep. Tom Campbell (not to be confused with the moderate GOPer running for California governor), pulled out of his bid last week, sensing a complete lack of interest from the NRCC. Nevertheless, Pierce County Councilor Dick Muri remains in the race.

• Redistricting: Remember the new independent redistricting commission that was created to take responsibility for California’s legislative districts? Now there’s an initiative afoot to add jurisdiction for congressional districts to the panel as well. The initiative also includes some vague language about preserving “communities of interest,” which, depending on how it’s interpreted, could result in some smoothing-out of California’s remarkably convoluted boundaries and thus some more competitive districts.

• CO-Sen: The Denver Post does some interesting digging into how former House speaker Andrew Romanoff wound up in the Senate Democratic primary against Michael Bennet after all. Governor Bill Ritter tried to give the Lt. Gov. spot to Romanoff after Barbara O’Brien left the position in January, but the deal collapsed, leaving Romanoff to decide on the primary instead this summer.

• IL-Sen: Chicago’s city treasurer, Stephanie Neely, has decided not to run in the Senate primary. However, Chicago’s inspector general David Hoffman seems to be taking tangible steps to get into the race, saying he’ll make a formal announcement after Labor Day.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch picked up filing papers for the Senate special election in Massachusetts, indicating he’s likely to soon join Martha Coakley. Lynch, who represents a heavily blue-collar Catholic district based in south Boston, would likely be the only anti-abortion Democratic in the race, but he has strong ties with organized labor.

• MD-Gov: While most of the question marks surrounding the Maryland governor’s race involve whether or not GOP ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich wants a rematch with current Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley, now some are wondering if O’Malley will face a primary challenge from former Prince George’s Co. Executive Wayne Curry. Speculation centers on how O’Malley has nailed down endorsements from Dems all over the state but is missing some key endorsements from PG County.

• NJ-Gov: Wow, what is it with this guy? So it turns out that back in 2002, Chris Christie turned his sail barge the wrong way down a one-way street, struck a motorcyclist (who was taken to the hospital)… and didn’t get a ticket. No claims about a tow-truck driver recognizing Christie this time – here, we know he identified himself to the officer on the scene. When he was asked if Christie’s title affected the officer’s decision not to issue a summons, the police director said “I don’t think I want to make that kind of deduction, but I think the facts speak for themselves.” Ouch. (D)

• OR-Gov: Lots of movement in the Oregon governor’s race now that John Kitzhaber is in. Democratic state Rep. Brian Clem (who had set up an exploratory committee a few months ago) quickly moved to endorse Kitzhaber and not just get out of the way but join Kitz’s campaign as a director. Meanwhile, Republican state Senator Jason Atkinson — who finished third in the GOP primary in 2006 and has “next in line” status — informally told his hometown paper, the Medford Mail-Tribune, that “he’s running,” although the formal announcement won’t happen for a while. Finally, it sounds like Rep. Peter DeFazio is making a move to… do something. He’s still considering the race, but will make a decision “around Labor Day,” which is soon.

• SC-Gov: Here’s a tea leaf that Jim Rex, who’d be the Dems’s strongest candidate, seems likely to get in the gubernatorial race. In the midst of touring the state and raising money, he says he won’t run for another term as Superintendent of Education.

• AZ-01: It sounds like the GOP has a candidate lined up in the 1st, to against freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s a definite improvement over the sad Sydney Hay from last time. Former state Senate majority leader Russell “Rusty” Bowers (also a former state Rep., and now a sand-and-gravel industry lobbyist) seems like he’s set to run.

• IN-08: The NRCC, however, wasn’t able to pin down a challenger to Brad Ellsworth in the 8th. Former Vandenburgh County Commissioner and county assessor Cheryl Musgrave decided not to run against Ellsworth, although she is considering a state House run instead against incumbent Dem Gail Riecken.

• PA-03: The GOP had been previously struggling to find anyone at all to go against freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper, but now they’ve landed someone fairly impressive sounding. John Onorato (not to be confused with Dem gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato) is the former Erie County Solicitor (analogous to DA in most states), giving him a large constituency to build on.

• SD-AL: State Rep. Shantel Krebs of Sioux Falls said that she’s considering challenging Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. Krebs would likely need to get past Chris Nelson, the state’s two-term Secretary of State, in the GOP primary though; he’s also in the “considering” phase. (Remember that South Dakota House districts are teeny constituencies, with only 22,000 residents each.)

• NYC-Mayor: One more SurveyUSA poll of the Dem primary in the Big Apple. William Thompson and Mark Green have pretty clear paths in the Mayor and Public Advocate primaries (Thompson leads Tony Avella 52-14), but check out the Comptroller’s race. It’s a three-way slugfest between three city councilors: 25% for John Liu, 24% for Melinda Katz, and 21% for David Yassky.

• Ads: The DNC, via Organizing for America, is running cable TV spots for four potentially vulnerable House Dems, thanking them for their pro-stimulus votes: Ben Chandler, Martin Heinrich, Travis Childers, and Zack Space.

• Polling: The Masters of the Crosstabs were all on hand to do a panel on polling at Netroots Nation last month: Charlie Cook, Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver, and Charles Franklin, moderated by Greg Dworkin (aka DemFromCT). At the link, you’ll find a video of their session. (Charlie gives a nice shout-out to SSP at about 7:40, and again at 80:20, where he talks about the “growing sophistication of the blogosphere.”) (D)

• Humor: Autotune the News 8 is out, in case you’ve ever wanted Joe Biden to sing you a slow jam.