Author: DavidNYC

Probably the biggest Democratic primary of the year is coming up soon: the West Virginia special gubernatorial primary, on Saturday, May 14th. I felt like we weren’t getting great insight into the key players, though, from traditional media accounts, so I asked a friend who is well-versed in Mountain State politics if he’d give us a neutral primer on all five serious Dem contenders. His guest-post, for which I am very grateful, is below.

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First, let’s accept as a given that all the candidates are running on a platform of more jobs, expanded energy production, and improving education in one order of priority or another. Here is a listing of the principal candidates in roughly right-to-left order on the ideological spectrum… though, based on their rapid scurrying as the primary nears, their positioning may shift a bit.

EARL RAY TOMBLIN

Tomblin is a 59-year-old veteran legislator, long-time President of the WV State Senate, and currently is acting Governor following Joe Manchin’s resignation. From Chapmanville in the southwestern corner of the state, Tomblin is pro-life and aligned with the business-friendly wing of the West Virginia Democratic Party (WVDP). Running on a platform of “more jobs… lower taxes,” Tomblin essentially offers a continuation of the Manchin Administration under new management. Tomblin draws wide support from the energy and other heavy industry, the Chamber of Commerce wing of the WVDP, and Manchin loyalists in the party apparatus at the state and county levels.

Tomblin’s supporters say as Governor he will build on Manchin’s progress in improving the business climate in West Virginia to create the jobs West Virginians need. They cite Tomblin recently forcing a cut in the state sales tax on food while keeping the state’s budget in balance and the announcement by companies like Toyota and Macys of new and expanded operations as evidence Tomblin’s approach works and illustrates his effective leadership.

Some of Tomblin’s opponents say Tomblin favors business at the expense of working people. They claim Tomblin is a Democrat in Name Only and is in the pocket of out-of-state energy interests like American Electric Power and Dominion Resources, which plunder the state’s natural resources and export the profits. Others claim as a 36-year legislator with ethical baggage, Tomblin is part of the problem, and not the solution, as his recent veto of health care measures in the state budget while retaining subsidies for gambling interests illustrate. Others argue Tomblin is too down-home to run strongly enough in the general election in the Northern and Eastern Panhandles.

JEFF KESSLER

Jeff Kessler is a 55-year-old trial lawyer, a four-term WV State Senator, and currently serves as interim WV Senate President while Tomblin acts as Governor. From Glen Dale in the Northern Panhandle, Kessler is pro-life, an advocate for gay rights, transparency in government reforms, and firmly in the pro-business camp of the WVDP, though he falls in the middle on labor issues. Kessler is running on a pro-business platform while highlighting his track records on ethics reforms, including the first state-level effort to regulate 527s. Kessler is endorsed by the WV Fraternal Order of Police.

Kessler’s supporters say his vision, ethical leadership, and realistic focus on creating jobs through expanding the existing energy industry are what West Virginia needs in these uncertain times. They cite his proposal to create the West Virginia Future Fund, which would divert 25% of severance tax collected on natural gas to provide tax relief for working West Virginians as well as endow efforts to diversify the state’s economy as evidence Kessler balances the needs for economic development and social needs. They argue Kessler offers a continuation of the Manchin Administration under new management without the ethical concerns and cornpone manner of Tomblin and, as a Casey-style Democrat, Kessler would be a stronger candidate in the general election in the swing regions. As a centrist, they argue, Kessler will be able to unite the bickering factions within the WVDP.

Some of his opponents say Kessler is just more of the same old Extraction Industry politics of exploit the land and export the profits. They say his strong support for expanded Marcellus Shale drilling involves needless environmental damage while only diverting a small portion of state revenues collected to public use. Others say the ambiguity inherent in his balanced stance between the interests of business and labor indicates a lack of depth and intensity to his commitments. Some argue Kessler’s abandonment of his Chamber of Commerce wing allies to emerge as interim WV Senate President show he is a typical ambitious career politician who will sacrifice principle for expediency.

JOHN PERDUE

John Perdue is a 60-year-old former WV Department of Agriculture employee, a top aide to former Governor Gaston Caperton, and is currently serving his fourth term as State Treasurer. From Boone County and currently residing in Kanawha County, Perdue is pro-life, proud of maintaining the state’s credit rating through the international financial crisis of the last several years, and generally has been considered a conventional center-left politician and an indicator of the center of gravity within the WVDP. Running on a platform of “investing in people,” Perdue has recently taken a more aggressively populist line, calling for a freeze and eventual rollback on utility rates. Having held high position in state government for two decades, Perdue has significant support among government workers and has been endorsed by the Teamsters, WV Farm Bureau, and the WV Troopers Association.

Perdue’s supporters say his performance as WV State Treasurer demonstrates his competence. Others cite his willingness to stand up to the powerful utility interests as showing his priorities are in order and he has the fire in the belly to fight for the little man. Others view his proposing the formation of a state-chartered Small Business Bank to meet the needs of WV businesses choked off from credit by the mistakes and greed of Wall Street as a taste of the innovative leadership Perdue could provide as governor. They note none of the other candidates have the executive experience and financial competence to guide the state through troubled times while building for the future.

Some of Perdue’s opponents say he has done a poor job as State Treasurer as the state’s budget crisis clearly shows. They say Perdue did and said nothing while the state’s unfunded liabilities for pensions and other post-employment benefits soared to crippling levels and will only get worse in the future. Other opponents say Perdue, as a career bureaucrat and politician, is out of touch with how business works and thinks real people need government to tell them how to lead their lives. They say his attacks on the utilities are merely election-year posturing since he sat back and said nothing while rates went up in the first place and show Perdue is only speaking out now because he is behind in the polls and is desperate to shake things up. Others say Perdue’s non-telegenic style is an electoral liability and his blandness is a sure-fire prescription for a general election loss.

NATALIE TENNANT

Natalie Tennant was the first female Mountaineer (WVU’s sports teams’ mascot), a former television news anchor, and is currently serving her first term as WV Secretary of State. From Fairview in the north-central part of the state along the I-79 Corridor, Tennant is pro-choice and supported by EMILY’s List. Running on a platform of change, Tennant cites the need for “a new way forward.” Recently Tennant has declared support for the public employee causes in Wisconsin and Ohio. Her campaign and supporters have lately taken to characterizing her as “the most liberal” candidate in the Democratic field. Tennant has wide support among women generally and runs strong with younger professionals in the small cities of the state.

Tennant’s supporters say as governor Tennant will bring a fresh perspective and innovative approaches to problem solving. They cite her private sector experience as a journalist and running her own media firm as well as her relative youth in comparison to the rest of the field as showing Tennant is not tainted with the Good Ol’ Boy System, wheeling-and-dealing politics of the past. They say Tennant is the candidate best suited to break up the old ways of doing things which have kept the state mired in corruption. Tennant’s supporters say as the only woman and only pro-choice candidate in the field she best reflects the views of the majority of WVDP voters.

Some of Tennant’s opponents say Tennant is too inexperienced to serve as governor, citing her mishandling of the Byrd succession as evidence she is not ready for prime time. They note that in the low-risk and high-profile post of Secretary of State, she had only one hot potato land in her lap and fumbled it, misinterpreting the state’s election laws and having to be bailed out by the Attorney General’s office and a special session of the state legislature. Others say Tennant is deliberately unclear on the issues and is more interested in being all things to all people and getting elected rather than actually leading. Others point to her support from out-of-state pro-abortion groups while garnering few endorsements within the state as demonstrating she is out of touch with core West Virginia values.

RICK THOMPSON

Rick Thompson is a 58-year-old trial lawyer, former assistant prosecuting attorney, and currently serves as Speaker of the WV House of Delegates. From the Fort Gay area of Wayne County along the western border with Kentucky, Thompson is pro-life and strongly pro-labor, having been the go-to guy for the unions in dealing with the state legislature for a decade. Running on a theme of “West Virginia owes me nothing; I owe this state everything,” Thompson’s campaign focuses on the emotionally powerful goal of ending the generations-long migration of young people from West Virginia seeking work elsewhere. Thompson is the candidate of choice for most of the industrial unions as well as a favorite of the trial lawyers, having earned the endorsements of the United Mine Workers, the AFL-CIO, and both of the state’s teachers’ unions as well as being a favorite of the trial lawyers.

Thompson’s supporters say, as governor, Thompson – with his blue-collar background and accomplished legislative track record – has the vision to level the playing field between business and labor while still creating the jobs West Virginia needs, not taxes. They note his economic program focuses on rolling back taxes on the small and mid-sized businesses which are the engine of job growth rather than subsidizing big out-of-state corporations. They say Thompson has always been a fighter for the little man and cite his recent victory over acting Governor Tomblin over granting public employees salary raises rather than a one-time bonus as proof of his effectiveness and ability to get things done in Charleston.

His opponents say Thompson is a rabble-rousing union hothead and a throwback to the bad old days when labor and management were always in conflict rather than working together. They claim Thompson is in the pocket of the unions and trial lawyers and will make decisions as governor favoring their interests rather than those of the state’s population as a whole. Others say, if elected, Thompson will reverse the improved business climate in West Virginia achieved under Joe Manchin and cause the state to lose jobs to other states and overseas. Others say Thompson’s track record of supporting almost every proposal for state spending and overly generous raises for state employees shows he is a tax-and-spend liberal who will bankrupt the state.  Others are concerned, like Tomblin, Thompson might also be a bit cornpone for both Panhandles in the general election.

Senate:

• FL-Sen: Dem Sen. Bill Nelson said he raised over $2 million in Q1 and would report somewhere between $4.5 and $5 million on hand. Republican Mike Haridopolos said he raised $2.6 million and would show $2.5 mil in the bank.

• HI-Sen: So that weird SMS poll we showed you yesterday which only pitted Ed Case vs. Mufi Hannemann in a Dem primary had another, more useful component. They also included favorables for a whole host of Hawaii politicians. Mazie Hirono was best (62% fave), while Linda Lingle was worst (44% unfave). Click the link for the rest. (And no, we still don’t know who SMS took this poll for. They’re just saying it was a private client.)

• MI-Sen: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) raised $1.2 million in Q1 and has $3 million on hand.

• MO-Sen: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) raised over $1 million in Q1 and has about $1.8 million on hand.

• NM-Sen: Teabagging businessman Greg Sowards raised $150K in Q1… but it sounds like that’s all his own money. The writeup is unclear, though – it’s possible he raised $150K from outside sources and threw in an equal amount on his own.

• NV-Sen: Wealthy Dem attorney Byron Georgiou raised $1.1 million in Q1, with $500K of that coming from his own pockets.

Gubernatorial:

• ME-Gov: We previously mentioned a proposed constitutional amendment in Maine that would require gubernatorial candidates to receive 50% of the vote (a hurdle almost no one has reached in recent decades). That proposal just died in the state Senate, so it’s basically dead for this term.

• MT-Gov: Democratic state Sen. Larry Jent officially announced he is running for governor. He faces fellow state Sen. Dave Wanzenried in the primary. State AG Steve Bullock may also run.

House:

• AZ-06: Ex-Rep. Matt Salmon, who served in a similar seat in the 1990s, says he’s now thinking about running for Jeff Flake’s open seat. Salmon previously said he was considering a run for governor.

• CA-03: Dem Ami Bera, seeking a rematch against Dan Lungren, says he raised over $230K in Q1. If this haul only dates to the time of his official announcement (just two weeks before the end of the quarter), it’s nothing short of un-fucking-believable. However, he gets a demerit for emailing me a press release without putting it on his website so that I can link to it directly. Boo!

• CA-06: Activist Norman Solomon became the second Dem to file in Lynn Woolsey’s district, in the event that she retires this cycle.

• CT-05: Dem Dan Roberti, a 28-year-old public relations exec whose father Vincent was a state rep, officially announced his entrance into the race to succeed Chris Murphy. On the GOP side, businesswoman Lisa Wilson-Foley, who sought the Republican nomination for Lt. Gov. last year, also said she was getting in.

• FL-22: Lois Frankel announced she raised $250K in Q1. Previously, we mentioned that fellow Dem “no not that” Patrick Murphy said he raised $350K.

• IN-02: Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly announced he raised $363,288 in Q1, his best single quarter ever. Dude’s not going down without a fight.

• NM-01, NM-Sen: An unnamed advisor to state Auditor Hector Balderas says he won’t seek Rep. Martin Heinrich’s now-open House seat (something that insiders apparently were encouraging him to do, in the hopes of avoiding a contested primary). According to this advisor, Balderas is still considering a Senate run. Personally, I think it was a mistake for Balderas to say he was almost definitely going to run, only to be upstaged by Heinrich, who of course said he was actually going to run. I think Heinrich has the advantage in a primary, but Balderas needs a way to save face here if he doesn’t want that fight any longer.

• NY-19: Freshman GOPer Nan Hayworth announced she raised $330K in Q1 and has a similar amount on hand. Question of the day: Do you think Hayworth could get teabagged to death?

• NY-26: Dem Kathy Hochul announced she raised $350K for the special election coming up on May 24th.

• OR-01: It took a little time, but Dems are now finally drawing out the knives for Rep. David Wu in earnest. Oregon Labor Commissioner (an elected position) Brad Avakian is putting together a team of political advisors and is likely to challenge Wu in the Dem primary. Another Dem elected official, Portland Commissioner Dan Saltzman, also apparently became the first Democrat to openly call for regime change (though he says he isn’t interested in running). All eyes will certainly be on Wu’s fundraising report, due on Friday.

• PA-07: Republican frosh Pat Meehan raised $325K in Q1.

• WI-07: Former state Sen. Pat Kreitlow has formed an exploratory committee for a possible challenge to freshman GOP Rep. Sean Duffy. Kreitlow served a single term in the Senate after defeating a Republican incumbent, before losing in last year’s red tide. This could be a pretty good get for us if he goes through with it (which seems likely, just reading this article).

Other Races:

• NJ Lege: Johnny Longtorso has a good summary of the candidate filing for New Jersey’s legislative races this November. Out of 120 seats, only four total are unopposed (though there may be signature challenges).

• Suffolk Co. Exec.: Will seriously no one hire Rick Lazio? Perennially a contender for Saddest Sack of the Year, Lazio is apparently considering a run for Suffolk County Executive, now that the seat will be open in the wake of Steve Levy’s unusual plea agreement with law enforcement (which involved him not seeking re-election).

Grab Bag:

• Dark Money: Dems are finally starting to play catchup with the David Kochs of the world. Ali Lapp, a former DCCC official (and wife of one-time DCCC ED John Lapp) will head up a new “Super PAC” called the House Majority PAC. Such groups are actually not all that shadowy – they do have to disclose their donors. But they can raise and spend in unlimited amounts, and engage in direct “vote for/vote against” advocacy.

• EMILY’s List: EMILY announced four new GOP targets: Bob Dold (IL-10), Frank Guinta (NH-01), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), and Steve Stivers (OH-15). The group only endorses women, and there are no declared Dems in any of these races yet, but I note with interest that they claim “there is major Democratic female talent waiting in the wings.” In NH-01, they could be expecting a rematch from ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, and I guesss maybe Debbie Halvorson in IL-11 and Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, but those seem very unlikely. Any ideas?

Redistricting Roundup:

• Iowa: It looks like Iowa’s new maps will indeed pass into law very shortly. A state Senate committee approved them unanimously, and now the full body is deliberating. The state House will take the issue up today. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad hasn’t yet said whether he’ll support the new plans, but it’d be pretty explosive if he nuked the maps in the face of widespread backing among legislators. This has all been a very interesting process to watch, especially since after the initial federal map threw both Republican congressmen together, it was easy to imagine that the GOP would want to go back to the drawing board. But the fear of the unknown has pushed politicians to accept what they have before them, rather than risk something worse.

• Indiana: With the new GOP maps looking very much like reality (how Bobby Jindal must envy Mitch Daniels), the state legislator shuffle is set to begin. The AP notes that the new state House map “has three districts that put two current Republican legislators together, three districts with at least two Democrats and four districts with a Republican and a Democratic incumbent,” which doesn’t sound so bad, but Democrats point out that “five of their House members from Indianapolis were drawn into just two districts.”

• Michigan: The MI lege is about to start the redistricting process. State law says maps have to be drawn by Nov. 1st.

• Texas: Republicans in the lege have introduced a bill that would require any new maps (or voter ID bills) to get litigated before a three-judge panel in D.C., rather than go through the DoJ for pre-clearance. Rick Perry apparently is already interested in this alternative. As I’ve speculated before, he may be hoping for a more favorable hearing from potentially conservative judges. However, I’ll note that you can still sue even after the DoJ renders a pre-clearance decision, so I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just take the (cheaper and easier) free shot first.

Also of note, the Latino civil rights group MALDEF released two proposals for nine majority-minority districts in Texas. (They deliberately did not offer a map that covered the entire state.) MALDEF is no random organization: They were part of the LULAC v. Perry litigation in 2006, in which the Supreme Court forced Texas to redistrict yet again because Tom DeLay’s map had improperly diluted Hispanic voting strength.

• Virginia: So what’s going on with this supposed deal? In a rather public bit of horse-trading, Dems (who control the state Senate) and Republicans (who control the state House and the governor’s mansion) agreed that each body would get to gerrymander itself (that sounds kind of dirty, huh?), and would also agree to an incumbent protection map for congress, which would of course lock in the GOP’s 8-3 advantage. But now Republicans and Democrats have each produced separate federal maps, and they are quite different, with the Dems deliberately trying to create a second district likely to elect a minority.

The oddest part of this deal is that the legislative parts of the deal have already passed – the congressional map is now an entirely separate beast, which I don’t really get, since they each seemed to constitute one leg of a three-legged stool. I guess that’s why the Senate Dems felt free to reject the House’s federal plan, which suggests that the agreement has fallen apart. But Republicans don’t seem to be howling that the Dems have somehow reneged, so maybe we didn’t understand this deal properly in the first place. In any event, we’re very much at an impasse here, but sometimes these logjams break apart very abruptly (see Louisiana and Arkansas).

A deal is done in Lousiana, too:

The House on Wednesday voted 63-35 to approve a congressional redistricting plan, sending it to Gov. Bobby Jindal who is expected to sign it.

About 90 minutes earlier, the Senate voted 25-13 for the measure. …

The redistricting vote came on House Bill 6 by Rep. Erich Ponti, R-Baton Rouge, after three hours of debate and most amendments being rejected. Ponti asked the House to approve the Senate-made changes to his bill when the House took it up shortly before 2 p.m. …

Ponti’s bill keeps in place two north Louisiana-based congressional districts that run from the Arkansas border into Acadiana and the Florida parishes on the east and almost to Lake Charles on the west.

UPDATE: Apologies for the confusion – but then again, what isn’t confusing when it comes to Louisiana politics? I believe that the correct maps (and population breakdowns) are contained in this file (PDF). This is the overview:

Click the link above for detail insets of places like New Orleans. Racial breakdowns are below:

It’s a done deal:

The state Senate gave final approval to a congressional redistricting plan today and sent the bill to the governor for his signature.

Gov. Mike Beebe has said he will sign the bill, which divides five counties, including Sebastian and Jefferson, between districts but keeps Fayetteville, Fort Smith and Russellville in the 3rd Congressional District and keeps Pine Bluff in the 4th District. …

Under SB 972 and HB 1836, Jefferson County would be split between the 4th and 1st districts, Crawford, Newton and Sebastian counties between the 3rd and 4th districts, and Searcy County between the 3rd and 1st districts.

Also, Madison, Franklin and Johnson counties would move to from the 3rd to the 4th District, Yell County would move from the 2nd to the 4th and Lincoln, Desha and Chicot counties would move from the 4th to the 1st.

The legislature has now recessed, so there’s definitely no going back. Here’s the new map, which eliminates the “Fayetteville Finger”:

ARDem at Blue Arkansas thinks this is a sucky map, and blames Dems for caving. Considering we comfortably control the trifecta here, it sounds like we did a very lousy job.

Senate:

• HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye says in a new interview that he “will not take sides in the primary,” and Politico ads that his “top aides insist” he won’t be lending quiet, behind-the-scenes support to any candidates either. I hope that’s true, since I was concerned Ed Case might have mended things with Inouye to the point that the latter might get behind the former. But without some special help, I think Case will have a hard time. Also, SMS Research took the most useless poll imaginable, pitting Case against former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in a primary… and absolutely no one else. Whatevs.

• ME-Sen: Olympia Snowe said she raised over $877K in Q1 and has over $2 million on hand.

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown said he raised $1.3 million in Q1 and has $2.5 million on hand.

• VA-Sen: George Allen said he raised $1.5 million in Q1 and has $1.25 million on hand.

Gubernatorial:

• KY-Gov: TX Gov. Rick Perry, current chair of the RGA, says his organization won’t decide how heavily it’ll get involved in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race until after the May 17th primary. He also declined to endorse frontrunner (and establishment choice) David Williams, saying he’s “got a really good feeling about all the men and women who are running.”

House:

• CO-04: Republican Rep. Corey Gardner apparently raised over $300K in Q1.

• CT-04: Dem Rep. Jim Himes estimates he took in over $300K in Q1.

• IN-06, IN-05: Luke Messer, a former official with the state GOP who nearly beat Rep. Dan Burton in a primary last year, now finds himself living just outside Burton’s 5th CD, according to new maps proposed by Republicans in charge of the state lege. Messer is now in the 6th, which is likely to be vacated by Mike Pence, who everyone thinks will run for governor. Messer says he’s buddies with Pence and will consider running to replace him if Pence makes the leap for the statehouse, but he wouldn’t rule out a rematch against Burton (though he says he wouldn’t move in order to do so).

• MN-08: This is pretty wild: Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) says he’s thinking about staging a comeback. It’s wild because Nolan left office in 1981 and is now 68 years old. It’s also rather strange because Nolan represented what was then the 6th CD, which is accurately represented in the map Joe Bodell presents. (His reader update is incorrect.) At the time, Nolan’s district covered the southwestern and central portions of the state; today’s 8th is in the northeastern corner (though they share one county in common, Mille Lacs). And to cap it all off, Nolan was touting himself at a Dem meeting in Bemidji, which is in the 7th CD. Actually, no – the real capper is that Nolan was a practitioner of the ’60s & ’70s fad of “Transcendental Meditation” (whose practitioners claimed they could levitate) and earned a mention in Time Magazine for it.

• MO-03: Not going gently… or padding the warchest for a different race, or perhaps something else down the line? Russ Carnahan raised $333K in Q1, his best first quarter ever, and has $286K on hand. Dave Catanese notes that Lacy Clay raised just $17K (though he has $222K in the bank). Would Carnahan really go up against Clay in a primary? What do you think?

• MS-02: Greenville Mayor Heather McTeer Hudson said she plans to challenge veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson in the Democratic primary next year. She also announced she’s hiring pollster Celinda Lake. Hudson had previously said she wouldn’t seek re-election to her current post. Thompson, meanwhile, ended last year with $1.7 million on hand and has warded off primary challengers before (most recently in 2006, in the form of Chuck Espy, son of former Rep. Mike Espy).

• SD-AL: Though it seems all but certain that ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won’t seek a rematch this cycle (among other things, she just accepted a teaching position at South Dakota State University, where she once worked), she did say she’s open to the possibility of seeking office again at some point in the future. She didn’t specify what post, so you can mentally flag this item as something other than just SD-AL if you like. Speaking of SD-AL, Rep. Kristi Noem (the woman who beat Sandlin) announced she took in $396K in Q1.

Other Races:

• LA-AG: Former Rep. Joe Cao says he plans to challenge Dem-cum-Republican AG Buddy Caldwell this fall. Cao specifically cited Caldwell’s party switch (which only happened in February) and questioned his Republican bona fides – sort of an unusual move in a state where party switching has been very common. We’ll see if he Cao actually has the chops to make a race of it. (Side note: A proud moment in SSP in-the-weeds history: Live-blogging the LA-AG runoff in 2007, when control of the state House was also at stake.)

• MS-AG: A rare bright spot for Mississippi Dems: Attorney General Jim Hood leads Republican Steve Simpson by 49-32 margin in PPP’s latest poll.

• Special Elections: From Johnny L-T:

Two of the three elections last night were landslides; in South Carolina’s SD-16, Republican Greg Gregory trounced Democrat Keith Brann and Libertarian Stan Smith by a 77-18-5 margin, while in Minnesota’s SD-66, DFLer Mary Jo McGuire beat Republican Greg Copeland 80-20. In Connecticut’s HD-128, Democrat Dan Fox won with 39%, while Republican Charles Pia (not Antonacci, my mistake) came in second with 24%. Independents John Mallozzi and Monique Thomas both made strong showings, pulling in 23% and 13%, respectively, and Green Rolf Maurer brought up the rear with about 1%. Note that Mallozzi failed to win the Democratic nomination, so he petitioned his way onto the ballot.

Remainders:

• Pay-to-Play: MaryNYC, the First Lady of the Swing State Project (aka my wife), has an interesting backgrounder on the SEC’s new regulations which attempt to curtail Wall Street from engaging in “pay-to-play” with elected officials. What’s interesting about the rules is that they make it very difficult for employees of financial firms to donate to state and local officeholders who have a stake in municipal investment decisions, but generally speaking doesn’t affect donations to federal officeholders. So, in a hypothetical example, New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas, who is weighing a run for Senate, might find Wall Street’s doors shut, while Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is already in the race, would face no such problems.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Indiana: We’ll have a lengthier redistricting-only digest later today, but I wanted to bring you this information ASAP. A source involved in Indiana politics informs me that these are the Obama percentages for each CD in the new map proposed by Republicans in the state lege:

IN-01: 63.2

IN-02: 49.4

IN-03: 42.9

IN-04: 44.4

IN-05: 46.5

IN-06: 43.5

IN-07: 66.3

IN-08: 48.0

IN-09: 46.1

Wisconsin’s election bureau, the GAB, has made precinct results available for the Supreme Court race for all but three counties. We’re trying to match these results up with state Senate districts. Jeff and I took a couple of passes at it, and you can see what we’ve done so far on Google Docs. Supreme Court race results are in the first tab, and district locations are in the second tab. Highlighted column K in the first tab is where things stand at the moment, but you’ll see there are still a number of “#N/A” errors. These can either be corrected manually (if people have the time & inclination), or perhaps they can be solved programmatically, if there are any Excel geniuses out there. (The problem lies in split municipalities – wards are often broken up differently in the Supreme Court data than they are in the district locations data in the second tab.)

Anyhow, if you’re interested, please take a look and see if you can’t help us polish this data set off. This information will be very valuable in the coming recall elections.

Senate:

• AZ-Sen: I’d encourage you to read this long Newsweek piece on Gabby Giffords, which I think paints a much more realistic picture of the prospects for her recovery (and possible future election campaigns). One explicitly horserace detail: 2010 Senate challenger Rodney Glassman is considering a run, and says that “if he did run, he would do so as a placeholder for Giffords, vowing to turn over his contribution list and infrastructure to her the moment she entered the race.”

• FL-Sen: Looks like Adam Hasner has taken a page directly from fellow Republican Mike Haridopolos: He failed to file a personal finance disclosure form within the required sixty days after leaving office last November. After a Democratic activist filed a complaint, he hurriedly moved to comply. The GOP field sure is shaping up to be a bunch of bumblers.

• IN-Sen: Dick Lugar announced that he raised $974K in Q1, or about eight times what GOP primary challenger Richard Mourdock says he pulled in, and now has $3 million on hand. I wonder if Mourdock will be able to make up the gap. If not – and if he doesn’t get some outside help from something like the Club for Growth – is it possible his much-hyped bid to topple Lugar could turn out to be a dud?

• NM-Sen: Heather Wilson says she took in $300K in the final three-and-a-half weeks of the quarter since announcing her campaign, and has a little less than that on hand. Of course, these are the low-hanging kumquats. Let’s see if she can sustain this.

• NY-Sen: The Fix points out that if you search for “Rick Lazio,” the description that Google gives back to you is “Republican candidate for the US Senate from New York.” I’m gonna bet that’s an artifact of his 2000 race against Hillary Clinton, though, not a sign that he’s gearing up to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Try Googling “Swing State Project.” The result? “Weblog focusing on the political news from and about the key swing states in the 2004 Presidential election.” Not so much anymore.

• TX-Sen: Though “everyone” expects Republicans Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to run for Senate this year, and polls showed him crushing all comers, it’s going to be a hugely expensive multi-way battle, and I’ve never quite gotten the sense that Dewhurst truly wants to become a senator. So I’m really not too surprised to see him tell a radio host the other day: “I need to make a decision in June whether I’m going to run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 or stay right where I am and run for governor in 2014….” What makes this even more interesting is that Rick Perry could still seek another term in 2014, which suggests that Dewhurst is trying to tell Perry it’s time to move on (he’s been in office since 2000), or that he’s willing to take on Gov. Goodhair in a primary. Either way, fun!

Meanwhile, in the realm of Republicans who are actually running for Kay Bailey Hutchison’s open Senate seat, Ted Cruz says he raised over a million bucks since launching his campaign in January. A good number, I suppose, but this primary is going to cost everyone a lot more than that.

Gubernatorial:

• FL-Gov: Dem Bob Buckhorn, the newly-elected Mayor of Tampa, said he won’t run for governor in 2014. However, Dem chair Rod Smith refused to rule out such a run for himself, which columnist Peter Schorsch rather wisely points out is probably not such a smart call: “After all, why should Alex Sink, Dave Aronberg, etc., go out of their to make Smith look good as FDP Chair if all he is going to do is turn around and run against them in a 2014 primary?”

• WV-Gov: Republican businessman Bill Maloney is up with his first TV ad of the race, while SoS Betty Ireland (who had generally been assumed to have a lock on the GOP nomination) won’t go on the air until next week. Could an upset be in the offing?

House:

• CT-05: Former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty, who had only recently formed an exploratory committee, officially announced yesterday that she’d seek the Dem nomination to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, who is of course running for Senate.

• IA-02: Could we see some sack-on-sack violence in Iowa’s (probable) new 2nd CD? Diarist BJazz at Bleeding Heartland makes a pretty compelling case for why former IA First Lady Christie Vilsack might choose to challenge Rep. Dave Loebsack in the Democratic primary for the state’s new southeastern district. Loebsack is a good vote, and I think it would be a shame to have this kind of battle, but as BJazz says, this is politics.

• NH-01, NH-02: Hey, sports fans – do you hate Charlie Bass? Good news! You’re not alone. PPP just tested favorability ratings across the board in New Hampshire, and residents of the 2nd CD already dislike their old/new Republican rep by an ugly 31-49 margin. Even more good news: freshman GOPer Frank Guinta in the 1st CD is underwater, too, at just 34-41. Check out the link for scores for other Granite State politicians (including both senators, who fare well). There’s also a state lege generic ballot question, which shows that Republicans might have to give back the gains they made last year: they trail Dems 49-41.

Other Races:

• NJ St. Sen.: Olympic track champion Carl Lewis, once known as the world’s fastest human, announced yesterday that he’s running for New Jersey state Senate as a Democrat in the 8th district. This is some very Republican territory, but Dems are hopeful Lewis’s presence on the ticket will energize their voters. (Also note that Monday was the filing deadline for this year’s state legislative races.)

• Wisconsin Recall: It looks like Democrats have scored another good recruit in their recall efforts: Oshkosh Deputy Mayor Jessica King, who lost to Randy Hopper by just 263 votes in a 2008 recount, is expected to announce tomorrow that she’ll seek a rematch in a recall election. On the Republican side, meanwhile, a potential candidate declined: former Packers defensive lineman Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (aka “KGB”) said he won’t run against Dem Dave Hansen. (Signatures have not been filed against Hansen yet.)

Meanwhile, the state’s Government Accountability Board (which supervises elections) is demurring on setting any election dates, and plans to ask a court “to give us some flexibility in the review period, so we can consolidate elections.”

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:

Three seats are up on Tuesday. First, in Connecticut’s HD-148, left open by the Democrat being elected to the State Senate in the last round of Connecticut specials, we have Democratic attorney Dan Fox facing off against Republican Ralph Antonacci, whose previous claim to fame was losing the Republican primary for the seat in 2010. Also in the mix are a Green and two indies. Carlo Leone held this seat by a 2-1 margin in 2010, so I don’t anticipate it being in danger.

Next we have Minnesota’s SD-66, left open by the Democrat being appointed to the state Public Utilities Commission. Democratic college professor Mary Jo McGuire is vying against Republican Greg Copeland, formerly the city manager of Maplewood, in an overwhelmingly Democratic seat in St. Paul (we’re talking 3-1 margins for the incumbent in the past two elections).

Finally, we’ve got a Republican seat up, South Carolina’s SD-16, another seat left open by a Congressional winner (Mick Mulvaney). The Democrats have accountant Keith Brann running, while the Republicans chose Mulvaney’s predecessor in the district, Greg Gregory, who served in the Senate for 16 years. There’s also a Libertarian running. I looked up Mulvaney’s performance in 2008, when he was first elected, and he only won by 7 points, which was kind of interesting, but of course, that was a completely different set of circumstances.

{Ed. Note: Apparently, Brann moved to SC from New Jersey three years ago, and initially sought this seat as a Republican, but found that the Palmetto GOP was too extreme for him.}

And that’s pretty much it until next month. There’s another special in Louisiana at the end of the month with two Republicans running.

Remainders:

• Census: Interesting: The Census Bureau mis-allocated over 25,000 people living on Navy bases or aboard ships in six different states and has had to issue corrections as a result. What other errors are lurking out there?

• WATN?: In case you had a burning desire to know what became of Bart Stupak, he’s joined the law firm Venable. Obviously Venable is a big firm, but Dave Weigel entertainingly points out that one of their clients is Planned Parenthood of Maryland.

In other Where Is That Asshole Now? news, disgraced ex-NY state Sen. Hiram Monserrate is now working at a pizza joint. (Of course, he really should be in the joint instead.)

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It’s a subject of much debate (and some confusion), and it’ll remain at least somewhat opaque until the Obama Department of Justice weighs in, but the question still is: Where will we see new majority-minority districts created in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act? I invite you to list any states – and especially regions of those states – where you think maj-min districts could get drawn, whether by state legislatures, by the DoJ, or in the end, by the courts. Bonus points for anyone who actually draws any proposed VRA districts.