Laundry list of Race Rating changes from Cook

This list is entirely made up of shifts in favor of Democrats, seems mostly reactionary to fundraising reports.  

The single-handedly biggest surprise to me is the shift of KS-02 from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.  Boyda got killed in fundraising, and he still bounced the race in her favor…  He obviously is seeing more there than we are.  

There are 25 shifts, that filled up his entire “Recent History” list.  It makes me wonder if there were more than 25 and I can’t see the rest because I’m not a subscriber.  

Arizona-01 (Kirkpatrick v. Hay)

Likely Dem <—- Lean Dem

Arizona-05 (Mitchell v. Schweikert)

Likely Dem <—- Lean Dem

Arizona-08 (Giffords v. Bee)

Likely Dem <—- Lean Dem

California-03 (Dursten v. Lungren)

Likely Republican <—- Solid Republican

California-04 (Brown v. McClintock)

Lean Republican <—- Likely Republican

California-46 (Cook v. Rohrabacher)

Likely Republican <—- Solid Republican

California-50 (Leibham v. Bilbray)

Lean Republican <—- Solid Republican

Connecticut-05 (Murphy v. Cappiello)

Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat

Georgia-12 (Barrow v. Stone)

Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat

Illinois-08 (Bean v. Greenberg)

Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat

Illinois-14 (Foster v. Oberweis)

Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat

Indiana-03 (Montagano v. Souder)

Lean Republican <—- Likely Republican

Indiana-09 (Hill v. Sodrel)

Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat

Kansas-02 (Boyda v. Jenkins)

Lean Democrat <—- Toss Up

Maryland-01 (Kratovil v. Harris)

Toss Up <—- Lean Republican

Mississippi-01 (Childers v. Davis)

Lean Democrat <—- Toss Up

Missouri-09 (Baker v. Luetkemeyer)

Toss Up <—- Lean Republican

New Hampshire-02 (Hodes v. Horn)

Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat

Ohio-02 (Wulsin v. Schmidt)

Lean Republican <—- Likely Republican

Ohio-16 (Boccieri v. Schuring)

Lean Democrat <—- Toss Up

Pennsylvania-04 (Altmire v. Hart)

Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat

Pennsylvania-08 (Murphy v. Manion)

Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat

South Carolina-01 (Ketner v. Brown)

Likely Republican <—- Solid Republican

Tennessee-04 (Davis v. Lankford)

Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat

Virginia-11 (Connolly v. Fimian)

Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat

Cook shifts ratings for a slew of races

Pennsylvania-11

Lean Democrat –> Toss Up  

Pennsylvania-7

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

New York-19

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

Indiana-8

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

Florida-25

Likely Republican –> Lean Republican

California-11

Lean Democrat <– Toss Up

Oklahoma-Senate

Solid Republican –> Likely Republican  

Nothing too surprising here.  Barletta has been pushing hard, I don’t think PA-07, NY-19, or IN-08 are on anyones radars.  

Nice to see Rice and Garcia making progress, while Cook is also seeing Andal’s laughable campaign in CA-11 fall apart.  

http://cookpolitical.com/ratin…

Ivan Moore polls AK-Sen and AK-AL all around

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Ivan Moore Research – 501 Registered voters

8/9-12  MoE 4.4% – 7/22 in Parenthesis

Republican Primary (AK-AL)

Young – 46% (46)

Parnell – 40% (38)

LeDoux – 7% (6)

Democratic Primary (AK-AL)

Berkowitz – 58% (54)

Benson – 24% (25)

Wright – 3% (5)

—-

General Election for AK-AL


Berkowitz – 51% (52)

Young – 41% (37)

—-

Parnell – 46% (43)

Berkowitz – 42% (40)

AK-Sen Primary (7/31 in parenthesis)


Stevens – 63% (59)

Cuddy – 20% (19)

Vickers – 7% (-)

Other – 3%

AK-Sen General

Begich – 56% (56)

Stevens – 39% (35)

Are these guys twins? Interesting find.

Okay.  So I’m following some of the news outlets and their “Eric Cantor is being vetted for McCain’s VP” jamble.  I check politico’s story, and they have a picture of the guy.  First thing I think is to search for a picture of John Gard, because I saw his face in an article in the written newspaper of Politico from months ago.  Lo and behold.

Cantor’s website displayed

Gard’s Website

Photos I first saw of each of them:

Cantor

Gard

It’s really kind of odd.  The glasses, the hair.  Almost the exact same.  Gard looks a little younger.  Their facial structures are slightly different.  But, wow.  

Another worthwhile bit of information.  In excess to being very active with Obama’s campaign for Wisconsin, another note to Jim Doyle’s possible run for re-election (No term limits in Wisconsin) is that he raised a solid amount of money and has one million in the bank.

If I had to guess, unless he takes a job in an Obama administration, he is running for re-election.  Hell, who wouldn’t?  After six years of fighting with Republicans, he will finally have a legislature that works with him.  

JTM’s US House Rundown

Here is my personal rundown, a word document almost copy and pasted for how I see the senate races.  

Notes:

– All the numbers, names, and codes can be rather mind-numbing.  If you see any spelling or numerical errors, please tell me.  

-If you think one race should be rated more competitive than another, or less competitive than another, feel free to make your case.  I think I have a good setup, but it isn’t perfect.

-This is a more liberal prediction, how the races will be on election day.  (For example, NY25, Dan Maffei will raise and spend about two million dollars, while his opponent, who isn’t an incumbent, will raise and spend around $500,000 & The DCCC will spend money here if they think it is necessary to pickup this seat.)

– *** = Retired Incumbent

– I round fundraising down to the nearest thousand.

Republican Held Seats:

1-7 = Likely Democratic Pickup

8-14 = Lean Democratic Pickup

15-24 = Toss up

25-37 = Lean Republican Retention

38-49 = Likely Republican Retention

50-68 = Race to Watch

Democratic Held Seats:

1-3 = Toss Up

4-14 = Lean Democratic Retention

15-27 = Likely Democratic Retention

House Republicans

1. New York-25*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland

Total Raised — $1,309,000 v. $133,000

Cash On Hand – $961,000 v. $107,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-25

2. New York-13*** (D+1) – – –  R2B

Mike McMahon v. ???

Total Raised —- $498,000 v. $0

Cash On Hand – $470,000 v. $0

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-13

3. Arizona-01*** (R+2) – – –  R2B

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

Total Raised —- $968,000 v. $293,000

Cash On Hand – $668,000 v. $257,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AZ-01

4. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

John Adler v. Chris Myers

Total Raised —- $1,719,000 v. $626,000

Cash On Hand – $1,463,000 v. $155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-03

5. Virginia-11*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

Total Raised —- $937,000 v. $1,293,000

Cash On Hand – $275,000 v. $1,039,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for VA-11

6. Illinois-11***  (R+1) – – –  R2B

Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga

Total Raised —- $1,233,000 v. $810,000

Cash On Hand — $916,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-11

7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance

Total Raised —- $1,545,000 v. $385,000

Cash On Hand – $1,200,000 v. $80,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-07

———————————————————————

8. New York-26*** (R+3) – – –  R2B

Jon Powers v. Chris Lee

Total Raised —- $869,000 v. $670,000

Cash On Hand – $488,000 v. $636,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-26

9. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) – – –  R2B

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

Total Raised — $1,240,000 v. $905,000

Cash On Hand — $354,000 v. $634,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NM-01

10. Michigan-07 (R+2) – – –  R2B

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

Total Raised — $1,330,000 v. $1,208,000

Cash On Hand — $928,000 v. $855,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MI-07

11. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

Total Raised — $1,052,000 v. $1,393,000

Cash On Hand — $738,000 v. $1,123,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MN-03

12. Ohio-15*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

Total Raised —- $1,559,000 v. $1,216,000

Cash On Hand – $1,163,000 v. $879,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-15

13. Washington-08 (D+2) – – –  R2B

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

Total Raised —- $1,959,000 v. $1,487,000

Cash On Hand – $1,248,000 v. $916,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for WA-08

14. Ohio-16*** (R+4) – – –  R2B

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

Total Raised — $1,081,000 v. $819,000

Cash On Hand — $531,000 v. $348,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-16

———————————————————————

15. New York-29 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

Total Raised — $1,158,000 v. $943,000

Cash On Hand — $652,000 v. $618,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-29

16. North Carolina-08 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

Total Raised —- $610,000 v. $2,207,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $1,174,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NC-08

17. Illinois-10 (D+4) – – –  R2B

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

Total Raised —- $1,988,000 v. $3,763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,175,000 v. $2,856,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for IL-10

18. Michigan-09 (R+0) – – –  R2B

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

Total Raised —- $1,301,000 v. $2,547,000

Cash On Hand – $1,082,000 v. $1,891,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MI-09

19. Ohio-01 (R+1) – – –  R2B

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

Total Raised —- $889,000 v. $1,356,000

Cash On Hand – $631,000 v. $1,311,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-01

20. Nevada-03 (D+1) – – –  R2B

Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter

Total Raised —- $575,000 v. $2,038,000

Cash On Hand – $553,000 v. $1,277,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NV-03

21. Florida-24 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

Total Raised —- $1,142,000 v. $1,388,000

Cash On Hand — $936,000 v. $795,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-24

22. Colorado-04 (R+9) – – –  R2B

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

Total Raised —- $958,000 v. $1,661,000

Cash On Hand – $580,000 v. $1,155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CO-04

23. Florida-21 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

Total Raised —- $1,219,000 v. $1,485,000

Cash On Hand – $1,079,000 v. $1,456,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-21

24. Connecticut-04 (D+5) – – –  R2B

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

Total Raised —- $2,055,000 v. $2,329,000

Cash On Hand – $1,444,000 v. $1,698,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CT-04

———————————————————————

25. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) – – –  R2B

Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley  

Total Raised —- $1,529,000 v. $1,091,000

Cash On Hand —– $75,000 v. $111,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for NM-02

26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) – – –  R2B

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

Total Raised —- $481,000 v. $706,000

Cash On Hand – $388,000 v. $352,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-04

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Judy Baker v. Bob Onder

Total Raised —- $401,000 v. $495,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $349,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MO-09

28. Florida-25 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

Total Raised —- $824,000 v. $1,135,000

Cash On Hand – $700,000 v. $752,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-25

29. Idaho-01 (R+19) – – –  R2B

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

Total Raised —- $997,000 v. $656,000

Cash On Hand – $444,000 v. $250,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for ID-01

30. Alaska-AL (R+14) – – –  R2B

Ethan Berkowitz v. Sean Parnell

Total Raised —- $627,000 v. $291,000  

Cash On Hand – $398,000 v. $207,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”  

2006 Results for AK-AL

31. Missouri-06 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

Total Raised — $1,852,000 v. $1,902,000

Cash On Hand — $962,000 v. $936,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MO-06

32. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) – – –  R2B

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

Total Raised —- $955,000 v. $723,000

Cash On Hand – $701,000 v. $69,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for WY-AL

33. Florida-13 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan

Total Raised — $1,499,000 v. $2,953,000

Cash On Hand — $578,000 v. $1,572,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-13

34. Ohio-02 (R+13) – – – ER

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt

Total Raised — $1,090,000 v. $858,000

Cash On Hand — $378,000 v. $393,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for OH-02

35. Alabama-02*** (R+13) – – –  R2B

Bobby Bright v. Jay Love

Total Raised —- $399,000 v. $1,051,000

Cash On Hand – $280,000 v. $90,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for AL-02

36. California-04*** (R+11) – – –  R2B

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

Total Raised — $1,314,000 v. $1,596,000

Cash On Hand — $675,000 v. $117,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-04

37. Virginia-02 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

Total Raised —- $515,000 v. $1,334,000

Cash On Hand – $409,000 v. $682,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for VA-02  

———————————————————————

38. Texas-07 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

Total Raised —- $1,465,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $1,050,000 v. $550,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-07  

39. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) – – – ER

David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie

Total Raised — $219,000 v. $764,000

Cash On Hand — $45,000 v. $661,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for KY-03

40. Texas-10 (R+13)Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

Total Raised —- $701,000 v. $975,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $489,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-10

41. Nevada-02 (R+8) – – – ER

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

Total Raised —- $437,000 v. $1,169,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $984,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NV-02

42. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charlie Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

Total Raised —- $613,000 v. $986,000

Cash On Hand – $414,000 v. $935,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-08

43. Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised —- $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MD-01

44. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) – – – ER

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

Total Raised —- $314,000 v. $1,579,000

Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $786,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for PA-03

45. Arizona-03 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

Total Raised — $1,065,000 v. $1,704,000

Cash On Hand — $706,000 v. $1,354,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AZ-03

46. New Jersey-05 (R+4) – – – ER

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

Total Raised —- $548,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $258,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NJ-05

47. Virginia-05 (R+6) – – – ER

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

Total Raised —- $910,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $519,000 v. $834,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-05

48. West Virginia-02 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

Total Raised —- $629,000 v. $1,143,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $974,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for WV-02

49. California-50 (R+5) – – – ER

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

Total Raised —- $560,000 v. $879,000

Cash On Hand – $266,000 v. $528,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-50

———————————————————————

50. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) – – – ER

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

Total Raised —- $537,000 v. $1,161,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $686,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-15

51. Alabama-03 (R+4) – – – ER

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

Total Raised — $521,000 v. $906,000

Cash On Hand – $410,000 v. $1,119,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AL-03

52. Pennsylvania-06 (D+2) – – – ER

Bob Roggio v. Representative Jim Gerlach

Total Raised —- $324,000 v. $1,814,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $761,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-06

53. Florida-18 (R+4) – – – ER

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

Total Raised —- $475,000 v. $1,124,000

Cash On Hand – $457,000 v. $1,893,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-18

54. Indiana-03 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

Total Raised —- $459,000 v. $556,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $323,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IN-03

55. California-46 (R+6)

Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrbacher

Total Raised — $157,000 v. $319,000

Cash On Hand — $97,000 v. $387,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-46

56.Virginia-10 (R+5) – – – ER

Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf

Total Raised — $1,207,000 v. $1,403,000

Cash On Hand — $812,000 v. $849,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-10

57. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

Total Raised — $395,000 v. $479,000

Cash On Hand – $177,000 v. $623,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for IN-04

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5) – – – ER

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

Total Raised —- $227,000 v. $1,498,000

Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $299,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-18

59. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

Total Raised —- $651,000 v. $918,000

Cash On Hand – $125,000 v. $1,903,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for CA-26

60. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven LaTourette

Total Raised — $345,000 v. $1,166,000

Cash On Hand — $46,000 v. $870,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for OH-14

61. Illinois-06 (R+3) – – – ER

Jill Morgenthaler v. Peter Roskam

Total Raised —- $495,000 v. $1,770,000

Cash On Hand – $230,000 v. $1,213,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-06

62. Florida-09 (R+4) – – – ER

John Dicks v. Representative Gus Bilirakis

Total Raised —- $354,000 v. $1,049,000

Cash On Hand – $323,000 v. $642,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-09

63. Louisiana-07 (R+7) – – – ER

Don Cravins Jr. v. Representative Charles Boustany

Total Raised —- $107,000 v. $1,014,000

Cash On Hand – $104,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for LA-07

64. Ohio-07*** (R+6)

Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria

Total Raised —- $363,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $108,000 v. $361,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for OH-07

65. Minnesota-02 (R+3) – – – ER

Steve Sarvi v. Representative John Kline

Total Raised — $251,000 v. $1,075,000

Cash On Hand — $98,000 v. $647,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-02

66. North Carolina-10 (R+15) – – – ER

Dan Johnson v. Representative Patrick McHenry

Total Raised —- $341,000 v. $1,031,000

Cash On Hand – $218,000 v. $410,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NC-10

67. Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – – ER

El Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

Total Raised —- $531,000 v. $1,932,000

Cash On Hand – $225,000 v. $1,297,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-06

68. Nebraska-02 (R+9)

James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry

Total Raised —- $246,000 v. $957,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $616,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NE-02







House Democrats

1. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

Total Raised — $1,635,000 v. $1,068,000

Cash On Hand – $1,148,000 v. $261,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for TX-22  

2. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

Total Raised — $1,227,000 v. $1,649,000

Cash On Hand — $892,000 v. $223,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for KS-02  

3. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Hal Valeche

Total Raised — $2,497,000 v. $1,054,000

Cash On Hand – $1,172,000 v. $828,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for FL-16

———————————————————————

4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NH-01  

5. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

Total Raised — $382,000 v. $1,963,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $400,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for OR-05  

6. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

Total Raised — $572,000 v. $431,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $73,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AL-05  

7. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

Total Raised — $1,169,000 v. $767,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $488,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-08  

8. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

Total Raised — $1,456,000 v. $1,081,000

Cash On Hand – $1,001,000 v. $819,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for KY-03  

9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

Total Raised — $1,648,000 v. $2,010,000

Cash On Hand – $1,149,000 v. $174,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for PA-10  

10. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

Total Raised — $2,122,000 v. $823,000

Cash On Hand – $1,574,000 v. $624,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-04  

11. Louisiana-06 (R+7)

Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy

Total Raised — $1,833,000 v. $212,000

Cash On Hand — $271,000 v. $195,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-06  

12. Mississippi-01 (R+10)

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

Total Raised — $1,315,000 v. $1,345,000

Cash On Hand — $160,000 v. $53,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MS-01  

13. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

Total Raised — $2,499,000 v. $1,146,000

Cash On Hand – $2,077,000 v. $687,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-08  

14. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

Total Raised — $3,602,000 v. $2,693,000

Cash On Hand – $2,802,000 v. $1,269,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-20    

———————————————————————

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

Total Raised — $2,130,000 v. $798,000

Cash On Hand – $1,375,000 v. $663,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CA-11  

16. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5)

Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta

Total Raised — $1,513,000 v. $517,000

Cash On Hand – $2,174,000 v. $321,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-11  

17. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

Total Raised — $1,717,000 v. $681,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $514,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-05  

18. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

Total Raised — $2,272,000 v. $763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,901,000 v. $710,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for CT-05  

19. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

Total Raised — $1,410,000 v. $812,000

Cash On Hand — $926,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for WI-08

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

Total Raised — $2,164,000 v. $534,000

Cash On Hand – $1,193,000 v. $279,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for TX-23  

21. Illinois-14 (R+5)

Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis

Total Raised — $3,459,000 v. $4,660,000

Cash On Hand — $442,000 v. $547,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-14

22. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

Total Raised — $1,734,000 v. $664,000

Cash On Hand – $1,160,000 v. $379,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-09

23. Minnesota-01 (R+1)

Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis

Total Raised — $1,941,000 v. $490,000

Cash On Hand – $1,210,000 v. $377,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for MN-01

24. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Total Raised — $1,821,000 v. $226,000

Cash On Hand – $1,267,000 v. $150,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-19

25. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

Total Raised — $1,809,000 v. $272,000

Cash On Hand – $1,141,000 v. $12,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for OH-18

26. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

Total Raised — $1,725,000 v. $134,000

Cash On Hand – $1,109,000 v. $8,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-12

27. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

Total Raised — $1,246,000 v. $144,000

Cash On Hand — $779,000 v. $9,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-08

Total # of Red to Blue Candidates: 38

Total # of Emerging Races Candidates: 21

Current Breakdown: 236D-199R

Prediction: 25-35 Democratic pickups in the US House

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Two Congressional polls

A poll from University of New Hampshire Survey Center that showed Shaheen leading Sununu 46%-42% also came with half the people polled in CD-01.

University of New Hampshire Survey Center (7/11-20) 240 people (MoE 6.4%)

Bradley – 46%

Shea-Porter – 40%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Next, an internal poll from the Harris campign that should probably be taken with a grain of salt (as the link says – High MoE + Poll Taken in one day)

Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates for Harris (7/15) 300 people (MoE 5.65%)

Harris – 44%

Kratovil – 28%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

I would take both polls with a grain of salt because I doubt Sununu is only down four points in the NH-Sen race.  

MD-01 Fundraising round-up

Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised — $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…

NH-01 Fundraising round-up

New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…  

VA-11, OH-01 Polling

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

A Connelly internal poll has Connelly leading, however, I am more open to his internal polling because his internal had him crushing Byrne, and it came true.  

Gerry Connolly (D) – 52%

Keith Fimian (R) – 21%

Lake Research Partners.  400 People.  July 10-14.  MoE 4.4%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Chabot Internal poll has Chabot up by 13 points in his race against Dreihaus

Steve Chabot (R-Inc.) – 50%

Steve Dreihaus (D) – 37%

Public Opinion Strategies.  400 likely voters.  June 30-July 2.  MoE 4.9%

Also interesting Information: DSCC has reserved 6 Million dollars in Ad time against Dole.  

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

“United For Change” DCCC Matching Donations 2-1

June 30th marks the first FEC reporting deadline since I have become the presumptive Democratic nominee. It’s clear that media pundits and our opponents will use Democratic fundraising totals as a measure of our party’s strength this November.

Today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is launching its United for Change Campaign to show Democratic strength across the electoral map by the June 30th reporting deadline. House Democrats are joining us to help and will match every gift 2-to-1 today, making any gift of $50 worth $150.

http://dccc.org/blog/archives/…

Interesting deal.  If you ever considered giving to the DCCC, now would be a good time.  We need a strong showing all around after June 30th, the next filing deadline.  (I can’t wait)  This e-mail was sent to DCCC supporters by Obama.  

Here’s the link to donate: http://www.dccc.org/page/contr…

Boehner knows an anchor when he sees one!

“I’m staying,” Boehner told ABC host George Stephanopoulos. “My job is to help bring our members together.”

Boehner said he talked late last week with Cole (R-Okla.), whose job security as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee is now in question after losing a third straight special election.

“Tom and I had a very good meeting on Friday – frank and constructive and positive,” Boehner said. “He’s staying.”

Rest of the article here: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Boehner is doing a really bang up job here.  First, he admits what his job is. That opens the doors to criticism that, rightly so, he just is not getting the job done.  He has made public statements saying what Republicans need to do; brand themselves as change, donate to the NRCC, etc. and nothing seems to change.  

Second, he took the time to chainlink himself to Tom Cole, like he needed help putting his leadership position into question.  

This is too precious.  It is like Republicans have turned into a bunch of chickens running around with their heads cut off.  That is only after 33 seats have gone down the tube over the past year and a half.  Just wait till we build on that after 2008.  Too precious.  

JTM’s House Rankings

Feel free to comment, share opinions.  There are a lot more house races and it’s harder to draw clear distinctions when ranking them compared to ranking the US Senate races.  I am posting this to get feedback, and to compare information.  

I also don’t want the diary to be too long, so I’m not going to post financial information on here, but I will link SSP’s two diaries.  

Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (Everything except IN and NC)

And Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (IN and NC)

*** = Retiring Incumbent/Open Seat

DCCC’s Red to Blue List: http://www.dccc.org/page/conte…

====House Republicans====

1. New York-25***  (D+3)

Dan Maffei v. ???

2. Illinois-11***  (R+1)

Debbie Halvorson v. ???

3. New Jersey-03*** (D+3)

John Adler v. Chris Myers

4. Arizona-01*** (R+2)

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

5. New Jersey-07*** (R+1)

Linda Stender v. Kate Whitman

———————————————————————

6. Minnesota-03*** (R+1)

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

7. Michigan-07 (R+2)

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

8. New York-26*** (R+3)

Jon Powers v. ???

9. Ohio-15*** (R+1)

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

10. Ohio-16*** (R+4)

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

11. Alabama-02*** (R+13)

Bobby Bright v. Harri Anne Smith

———————————————————————

12. Louisiana-06*** (R+7)   Special Election – May 3rd

Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins

13. New York-29 (R+5)

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

14. Washington-08 (D+2)

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

15. Missouri-06 (R+5)

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

16. Florida-24 (R+3)

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

17. Alaska-AL (R+14)

Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young

18. Virginia-11*** (R+1)

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

19. Connecticut-04 (D+5)

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

20. North Carolina-08 (R+3)

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

21. Michigan-09 (R+0)

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

22. Illinois-10 (D+4)

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

23. Virginia-05 (R+6)

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

24. Nevada-03 (D+1)

Robert Daskas v. Representative Jon Porter

25. New Mexico-01*** (D+2)

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

26. Mississippi-01*** (R+10) Special Election – May 13th

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Robert Gaw v. Bob Onder

28. Colorado-04 (R+9)

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

———————————————————————

29. Louisiana-04*** (R+7)

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

30. Ohio-01 (R+1)

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

31. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

32. California-04*** (R+11)

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

33. Idaho-01 (R+19)

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

34. Ohio-02 (R+13)

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmitt

35. Arizona-03 (R+6)

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

36. West Virginia-02 (R+5)

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

37. Virginia-02 (R+6)

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

38. Florida-13 (R+4)

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanon

39. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2)

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

40. Texas-10 (R+13)

Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

———————————————————————

41. New Mexico-02*** (R+6)

Bill McCamley v. Ed Tinsley  

42. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven Latourette

43. New Jersey-05 (R+4)

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

44. Texas-07 (R+16)

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

45. California-50 (R+5)

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

46. Florida-21 (R+6)

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

47. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charles Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

48. Nevada-02 (R+8)

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

49. Florida-25 (R+4)

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

50. Alabama-03 (R+4)

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

51. Florida-18 (R+4)

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

52. Illinois-06 (R+3)

Jill Morgenthaler v. Representative Peter Roskam

53. Indiana-03 (R+16)

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

54. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

55. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

56. Pennsylvania-03

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

57. Pennsylvania-18

Steve O’Donnell v. Representative Tim Murphy

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5)

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

59. Pennsylvania-05*** (R+10)

Mark McCracken v. Glenn Thompson

60. Florida-10 (D+1)

Linn Max v. Representative Bill Young

====House Democrats====

1. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

2. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

3. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

4. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey

———————————————————————

5. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

6. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

7. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

8. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

9. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

10. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

11. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

12. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

13. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

14. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

———————————————————————

16. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

17. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

18. Connecticut-02 (D+8)

Representative Joe Courtney v. Sean Sullivan

19. North Carolina-11 (R+7)

Representative Heath Schuler v. Spence Campbell

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

21. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

22. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

23. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

24. Indiana-02 (R+4)

Representative Joe Donnelly v. Luke Puckett

25. Minnesota-01 (R+10)

Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day

26. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Notes:

– In contests where the primary has not yet occured, I have picked the person who has fundraised the most.  

– 60 Vulnerable/Potentially Vulnerable House Republicans

– Prediction is 20-30 Democratic pickups in the US House

– Current Breakdown of the US House 234D-198R Representatives (3 Outstanding)

– Projected Outcome of the US House 256D-179R Representatives

– 25 Retiring Republicans

Tiers:

(Republicans)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#5 = Likely Democratic Pickup

Tier 2 – Races #6-#11 = Lean Democratic Pickup

Tier 3 – Races #12-#28 = Toss Up

Tier 4 – Races #29-#40 = Lean Republican Retention

Tier 5 – Races #41-#60 = Likely Republican Retention

(Democrats)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#4 = Toss Up

Tier 2 – Races #5-#15 = Lean Democratic Retention

Tier 3 – Races #16-#26 = Likely Democratic Retention

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...