JTM’s Senate Rankings

Senate Republicans

1. Virginia***

Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore

Total Raised — $6,300,000 v. $402,000

Cash On Hand – $4,380,000 v. $208,000

(Likely Democratic Pick-up)

2. New Mexico***

Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce

Total Raised — $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000

Cash On Hand – $2,600,000 v. $854,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

3. New Hampshire

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu

Total Raised — $2,566,000v. $4,143,000

Cash On Hand – $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

4. Colorado***

Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer

Total Raised — $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000

Cash On Hand – $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

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5. Alaska

Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens

Total Raised — $280,000 v. $2,071,000

Cash On Hand – $250,000 v. $1,300,000

(Toss Up)

6. Minnesota

Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman

Total Raised — $9,359,000 v. $8,640,000

Cash On Hand – $3,500,000 v. $7,000,000

(Toss Up)

7. Oregon

State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith

Total Raised — $1,371,000v. $4,274,000

Cash On Hand — $474,000 v. $5,100,000

(Toss Up)

8. Maine

Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins

Total Raised — $3,656,000 v. $5,068,000

Cash On Hand – $2,700,000 v. $4,500,000

(Toss Up)

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9. North Carolina

State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole

Total Raised — $562,000 v. $4,855,000

Cash On Hand – $515,000 v. $2,664,000

(Lean Republican Retention)(12/31/07 Fundraising Numbers)

10. Mississippi-B***

Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker

Total Raised — $448,000 v. $3,000,000

Cash On Hand – $337,000 v. $2,750,000

(Lean Republican Retention)

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11. Oklahoma

State Senator Andrew Rice v. Incumbent Senator James Inhofe

Total Raised — $970,000 v. $3,168,000

Cash On Hand – $597,000 v. $2,221,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

12. Idaho***

Former Congressman Larry LaRocco v. Lieutenant Governor James Risch

Total Raised — $555,000 v. $1,129,000

Cash On Hand – $253,000 v. $935,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

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13. Georgia

State Representative Jim Martin v. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss

Total Raised — $346,000 v. $4,407,000

Cash On Hand – $333,000 v. $3,637,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

14. Kansas

Former Congressman Jim Slattery v. Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts

Total Raised — $289,000 v. $3,205,323

Cash On Hand – $286,000 v. $2,986,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

15. Nebraska***

Scott Kleeb v. Former Governor Mike Johanns

Total Raised — $274,000 v. $2,018,000

Cash On Hand – $281,000 v. $1,330,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

16. Kentucky

Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell

Total Raised — $808,000 v. $7,908,000

Cash On Hand – $666,000 v. $7,741,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

Senate Democrats

1. Louisiana

Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu v. State Treasurer John Kennedy

Total Raised — $5,447,000 v. $1,907,000

Cash On Hand – $4,564,000 v. $1,623,000

(Likely Democratic Retention)

Notes:

– *** = Open Seat

– I separated the two parties and their respective competitive/potentially competitive races  

– I rounded all the fundraising numbers down to the nearest $1,000

– North Carolina doesn’t report fundraising numbers till 4/24/08

– DSCC and NRSC haven’t made public their March fundraising numbers

– The long lines are to breakdown the tiers that I see the Senate races in.  

– I am trying to predict the spending of the DSCC and NRSC when providing my projected outcome – I don’t believe in saying, “Well, if the election were held today…” because if the election were held today, that means for the past two months we’d be getting commercials from both sides.  Simple as that.  

Democratic Offensive

Tier 1 = VA, NM, NH, CO

Tier 2 = AK, MN, OR, ME

Tier 3 = NC, MS

Tier 4 = OK, ID

Tier 5 = GA, KS, NE, KY

Republican Offensive

Tier 1 = LA

Overview

– 6 Republican Senators Retired (CO, ID, MS, NE, NM, VA)

– Republican Seats: 1 Likely Dem Pickup – 3 Lean Dem Pickup – 4 Toss Ups – 2 Lean Rep Retention – 6 Likely Rep Retention – 7 Safe Reps

– Democratic Seats: 1 Lean Dem Retention – 11 Safe Dems

– Current Breakdown of the US Senate: 51D – 49R

– Prediction = 6-9 Democratic Pickups in the US Senate

– Projected Breakdown of the US Senate: 59D – 41R

Fundraising for the Respective Committees(2/29/08)

DSCC v. NRSC

Total Raised — $64,100,000 v. $39,300,000

Cash On Hand – $32,800,000 v. $15,300,000

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

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4th Quarter Fundraising!!!

I love it when SSP makes their big page on candidate fundraising.  Unfortunately we haven’t even gotten a tease with some information yet.  

Here’s an update from Al Franken’s campaign: (From an e-mail to supporters)

We’re proud to announce that, in the fourth fundraising quarter, we raised nearly $1.9 million. And we’re even prouder to announce that, since Al began his campaign, we’ve received contributions from over 81,000 people. Read that again. Over 81,000 people have invested in our campaign for change.

Let’s start the 4th Q numbers rolling.  If you know anyone’s numbers, post them below!

Third Quarter Fundraising Gives us Reason to Speculate! ***Retirement Watch***

Third quarter fundraising numbers came out over a week ago.  Fundraising is a huge indicator to a lot of things when it comes to predicting races and keeping an eye out for possible retirements. 

So lets get down to it.  I’m going to take people who fundraised under 100,000$ and go over their age, and length of their political career. 

Senate:
Mike Enzi raised a total of $7,525.  Enzi is 63 years old, and has spent 27 of the last 32 years in elected office.  He is older, and is looking foward to a long time in the minority. 

Thad Cochran raised a total of $14,124.  Cochran is 70 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in congress.  (4 years in the house, then the last 30 in the senate). 

House:
John Doolittle (R-CA-04) raised $50,000.  Doolittle is 57 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in elected office (CA Senate ’80-90, US House ’90-present)

Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41) raised $67,000.  Lewis is 73 years old and has spent the last 39 years in elected office (CA Senate ’68-78, US House ’78-Present)

Gary Miller (R-CA-42) raised $39,000.  Miller is 59 years old and has spent 16 of the last 18 years in elected office. 

Bill Young (R-FL-10) raised $29,000.  Young is 77 years old, and has spent the last 47 years in elected office (FL Senate ’60-70, US House ’70-present)

Dave Weldon (R-FL-15) raised $29,000.  Weldon is 54 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Mark Souder (R-IN-03) raised $83,000.  Souder is 57 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Steve Buyer (R-IN-04) raised $74,000.  Buyer is 49 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Julia Carson (D-IN-07) raised $9,000.  Carson is
69 years old, and has spent the last 35 years in political office.  She also has health issues. 

Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD-06) raised $1,000.  Bartlett is 81 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Dennis Kucinech (D-OH-10) raised $40.  Kucinech is 61 years old, and has spent 21 of the last 38 years in elected office. 

Virgil Goode (R-VA-05) raised $53,000.  Goode is 61 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in elective office (VA Senate ’73-96, US House ’96-present)

Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) raised $79,000.  Wolf is 68 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in the US House. 

Barbera Cubin (R-WY-AL) raised $11,000.  Cubin is 61 years old, and has spent the last 20 years in elected office.  Cubin is also being pushed towards retirement by state Republicans for her weak electability. 

In case you are wondering, I did omit a number of people who were very close to $100,000, if they had a contested primary, or if they were in a competitive district (Obviously making it harder to raise large sums of money.  If I didn’t, this would have taken me all day). 

People Ommitted:
Bilbray-R-CA-50
Latham-R-IA-04
King-R-IA-05
Sali-R-ID-01
Lipinski-D-IL-03
Gilchrest-R-MD-01
Saxton=R-NJ-03
Udall-D-NM-03
Fossella-R-NY-13
McHugh-R-NY-19
McCaul-R-TX-10

Future Democratic retirements? 
House: 1-2
Senate: 0

Future Republican retirements? 
House: 5-11
Senate: 1-2

(Of course these are off of fundraising only – Obviously I’m not looking into people who are off the radar completely)

Here’s what I guessed.

Democrats-US House: Carson for Sure, Kucinech is a maybe.

Republicans-US Senate: Cochran for sure, Enzi is a maybe. 

Republicans-US House: Lewis, Young, Bartlett, Cubin for sure – Everyone else maybe. 

NM-Sen – Albequerque Mayor Marty Chavez to join race

Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow morning where he is expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat now held by the retiring Pete Domenici. Chavez would be the first big name Democrat to enter the race.

Good news?  Bad news?  This will be debated heavily between bloggers and Democrats, as noted in the article:

Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?

Article Here: http://www.coldheart…

What do you guys think?  In comparison to Wiviott, the only other Democratic challenger, I feel Chavez is a step forward on beating Heather Wilson and a step back on policy, although that cannot really be decided until he sets his platform. 

I should note that personally, I feel we should sport strong challengers to try to attain the big 60, then work on electing better US Senators.  Until we have 60, I feel that Republicans have too much power in the Senate. 

As most people know, going from state/local politics to national politics is a big leap on different issues, so time will tell where Chavez stands, although he has been mayor of Albequerque for awhile, and has amassed some sense of principles on general issues. 

Also, it is noteworthy that Albequerque is the heart of Heather Wilson’s Congressional District, which is seen as the base for her Senate race.