Author: Mark

For the second consecutive election cycle, Democrats had much to celebrate. We won the largest Presidential election mandate in 20 years, we gained seats in the Senate even though we didn’t get to the filibuster-proof majority, and have won an additional 20 seats in the House, give or take a couple of close calls. Obama’s likely 364 electoral vote tally easily bested by prediction of 291, while my Senate seat pickup prediction of seven now looks optimistic, but my cautious prediction of 17 House seat pickups looks pretty close.

As for my two broader-themed predictions, it was a split decision. I had guessed that “moral values” would once again shock the world by emerging as the second-most important concern of voters going to the polls yesterday. It wasn’t even in the top four. On the other hand, I was laughed out of the room by numerous people when suggesting that Ralph Nader would overperform his 2004 numbers as a protest vote for alot of older Democrats who just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a black man. But I was vindicated on that one as Nader exceeded 2004 margins in just about every state where he was on the ballot. As for the exit polls, they appeared to be even worse than those of 2004. Most of the close races showed huge Obama victories in the exit polls while even many red states looked to be breathtakingly close based on erroneous exit poll data.

State by state thoughts below the fold….

Alabama–In the Presidential race, I was kind of surprised this wasn’t worse. Alabama’s black population is below 30%, so I figured McCain’s margins would be epic, but he actually underperformed Bush four years ago. And winning Jefferson County (Birmingham) was a nice victory for Obama. I also can’t argue with the way the Congressional races turned out. I never would have thought Bobby Bright would be able to close this deal in his crimson red district, but he eked it out, while Parker Griffith hung onto a tough seat in AL-05 as well.

Alaska–Wow, what can you say about this place other than Palin, Stevens, Young and all their cohorts in crime at the ballot box deserve each other. While there’s a substantial absentee vote hanging out there that could yet unseat Ted Stevens, it seems pretty certain that Don Young will be back in Congress for two more years. Alaska is becoming another Florida, where any favorable poll needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Every poll showed Tony Knowles leading Lisa Murkowski in the 2004 Senate race yet Murkowski won by five points. Now there’s a very good chance a convicted felon may have overcome a 22-point poll deficit in eight days to keep a Senate seat that his own party’s leader said he was gonna boot from the caucus. What a surreal place!

Arizona–Close polls notwithstanding, McCain pulled ahead in the end as expected, yet still underperformed Bush’s 2004 numbers. The Congressional races went as predicted, with Democrats Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, and Giffords winning easily and Republican Shadegg holding on in AZ-03, a race I never thought would go our way.

Arkansas–Looking at last night’s Presidential numbers, I can say without hesitation that I’m more disappointed in Arkansas than any other state. The polls showed a double-digit edge for McCain, but never would I have expected a 20-point McCain romp and double-digit victories for McCain in most 2004 Kerry counties. Hard to assume this outcome was about anything other than race, even in a state where the racial polarization in political affiliation had traditionally been much less significant than in the rest of the South. Perhaps the Southern Republican realignment will soon consume its last remaining holdout of Arkansas now that the Democrats had the audacity to elect a black President.

California–It’s easy to dwell on the disappointment of the Prop 8 hate measure’s narrow passage, but Obama’s 23-point victory in the state that brought us Ronald Reagan is nothing short of incredible, and appears to be running up the score of the popular vote for Obama as the state’s final numbers come in. Obama came within four points of winning Orange County. That’s amazing. Less impressive were the Congressional race outcomes. While McNerney held on, neither Nick Leibham or Debbie Cook prevailed in their longshot races even though Obama was overperforming at the top of the ticket. It’s still too close to call in the Brown-McClintock race, but McClintock narrowly leads. I was always suspicious of the prospect of a Democrat winning a district this mercilessly red now matter how perfect the circumstances.

Colorado–An epic blue tidal wave sweeps Colorado. This state’s transformation has been one of the most rapid I’ve ever seen, and bodes well for Ken Salazar’s ability to hold his Senate seat two years from now in what will likely be a tough, defensive climate. Who would have thought back in 2002 that Colorado would be this blue only six years later? Obama won comfortably, Mark Udall won the Senate seat by even more and voters in CO-04 finally expired culture war bomb thrower Marilyn Musgrave by an incredibly lopsided margin.

Connecticut–Another good night for Democrats in Connecticut with Obama trouncing McCain by more than 20 points in the Presidential race and helping Democrats score a complete blue sweep of New England Congressional districts with the unseating of Chris Shays in CT-04. I’m assuming a heavy black turnout in Bridgeport is what did Shays in.

Delaware–A huge Biden bounce turns Delaware as blue as Massachusetts and New York in this year’s Presidential race. Still interesting that the state’s southernmost rural county went McCain though. Also nice to have elected a Democratic Governor in Delaware to fill Biden’s Senate seat.

Florida–For the first time in living memory, pre-election polls in Florida actually played out as expected with Obama winning a small but significant two-point victory. The margin of difference came from Tampa-St. Petersburg and especially Orlando, a region that has trended dramatically blue in the last 10 years (Bob Dole won Orange County in 2006), and a fast-growing Hispanic population is credited for improved Democratic margins in the Orlando area. I held out some hope to see a few heavily black rural counties in northern Florida go blue this year, but apparently whites voted more Republican and offset higher black turnout as occurred in much of the South. I can’t say I was disappointed with Florida’s Congressional races either as I never expected either of the Diaz-Balart voters to be unseated in South Florida. On the bright side, once again in Orlando, Democrats Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas unseated Republican incumbents. Predictably, slimeball Democrat Tim Mahoney was unseated (good riddance!). My only surprise was that Mahoney still managed to get 40% of the vote.

Georgia–Early numbers made the Presidential race look like an epic McCain blowout, but Obama closed the gap to nearly five points as the late returns rolled in. That’s pretty impressive considering Bush won this state by 16 points four years ago. And the last I saw, Saxby Chambliss was just below 50% in the Senate race and thus looking at a runoff next month. I don’t give Jim Martin very good odds of toppling Chambliss in that setting, but it was nonetheless an impressive feat in a state Democrats had completely written off several years ago. Both of the Democratic House members rumored to be endangered (Jim Marshall and David Scott) held on easily, in Marshall’s case much easier than I had expected.

Hawaii–Hard to believe this was a battleground state four years ago. In 2008, it was Obama’s best state in the nation, giving him more than 70% of the vote. He had a certain homefield advantage here, but the margin was still impressive.

Idaho–As election nights go for Democrats in Idaho, this can only be described as an incredibly successful won. Obama inched his way up to 36% in the Presidential race, while noxious Republican dunderhead Bill Sali was narrowly unseated by Democrat Walt Minnick in ID-01, a race I doubted would turn. Now Minnick is the proud owner of the most Republican Congressional district in the country represented by a Democrat.

Illinois–Naturally, Obama kicked butt in his home state and won by about 25 points, but didn’t have the coattails to drag along Dan Seals in IL-10 as I predicted (in contrast to Minnick, I expect IL-10 is now the bluest district in the nation represented by a Republican). On the bright side, Debbie Halvorson easily picked up the IL-11 open seat for the Dems and Dem Bill Foster easily held on in IL-14, Denny Hastert’s old district.

Indiana–I always thought Obama was wise to put forth such an effort in Indiana for the benefit of future Democrats, but never entertained the idea that he would win the state outright until I started seeing those early returns roll in last night, with McCain barely managing a lead before even the first returns from Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Lake County rolled in. Now, Indiana is a blue state, swinging an incredible 22 points towards Democrats since the last Presidential election. In the House, I never expected Mark Souder to be unseated in his hard-red district, but was pleased to see Baron Hill finally driving a stake through the heart of Mike Sodrel in IN-09 with his double-digit landslide.

Iowa–Another deeply blue year for my current state of residence with a solid nine-point Obama victory that cut well into the Norman Rockwell farm country of western Iowa. Tom Harkin had his first true landslide in the Senate race, laying waste to a clueless fourth-rate GOP challenger and winning 94 of 99 Iowa counties. I was originally bullish about Becky Greenwald in IA-04, but could feel the oxygen getting sucked out of her campaign in the closing weeks as Latham badly outspent her. I was nonetheless shocked at the 21-point thumping Greenwald got, underperforming Latham’s invisible Democratic challenger Shelden Spencer in 2006. Iowa’s other House Democrats all won double digit victories, with Leonard Boswell once again underperforming everybody else on the ballot. The comically awful western Iowa Republican Steve King prevailed for a fourth term as predicted.

Kansas–Obama did narrow traditional Republican margins in Kansas a bit, but still lost by 15 points. I predicted Nancy Boyda would have a hard time hanging on in KS-02 and was unfortunately proven correct as she lost by a significant five points. Kansas continues to be a very long-term project.

Kentucky–Louisville almost by itself saved Obama from badly underperforming Kerry in Kentucky. I was skeptical that Obama could prevail in east Kentucky, even in counties like Floyd and Knott where Kerry got more than 60% of the vote, and was unfortunately proven correct. One wonders if McCain’s ninth-inning cheap shot about coal further suppressed Obama’s numbers in Appalachain coal country. Nonetheless, it was heartening to see four east Kentucky counties go Obama, along with Fayette County (Lexington) and a couple unexpected rural counties across the Ohio River from Indiana. The Senate race played out as expected with McConnell prevailing by a small but significant margin, while Yarmuth predictably hung on in KY-03 and Brett Guthrie predictably kept the KY-02 open seat in GOP hands.

Louisiana–Unlike Arkansas, I expected a 20-point McCain blowout in Louisiana. I was really starting to get worried about Mary Landrieu by about 10 p.m. last night as she clung to a few thousand vote lead, but she didn’t better than expected in Jefferson County (suburban New Orleans) and went on to win convincingly. In the House, I thought those polls showing huge leads for Don Cazayoux in LA-06 seemed to good to be true given that he would assuredly be hemorrhaging black support to Independent candidate Jackson. Cazayoux lost by eight points, and of course Jackson was the difference. The open seat for LA-04 won’t be settled until a December runoff, but I think it’s probably an uphill fight for Democrat Paul Carmouche.

Maine–Polarized double-digit blowouts for Obama in the Presidential race and Republican Senator Susan Collins, both predicted even though Collins’ margin was even larger than expected. Not much to report here.

Maryland–This is a demographically perfect state for Obama, and he delivered with a 23-point victory. The complicated MD-01 open seat race is still officially undecided, but Democrat Frank Kratovil holds a 1,000-vote lead in this uber-Republican district where he most certainly didn’t get much in the way of coattails from Obama.

Massachusetts–Not much to see here. Obama won by about 25 points and all the state’s all Democratic Congressional delegation held on once again.

Michigan–Hard to imagine just a month ago that Michigan was deemed likely to be one of the nation’s biggest Presidential battlegrounds. It’s definitely clear why McCain chose to pull out of the state, having lost it to Obama in a geographically widespread 16-point landslide, particularly impressive given the generations-old racial polarization in metropolitan Detroit. And even though the GOP drew up a Congressional map in 2001 that seemed like a nearly impenetrable firewall, the Democrats managed to crack it by unseating two Republican incumbents in MI-07 and MI-09, the latter of which ended up being a landslide defeat for long-time suburban Detroit incumbent Joe Knollenberg.

Minnesota–My home state certainly delivered for Obama last night, but nonetheless disappointed on several fronts. I was struck that Obama’s growth in outstate Minnesota was much less than the growth seen in its neighboring states. Most disappointing is that the asshats of the Minnesota Independence Party carried on their now decadelong tradition of inadvertantly electing Republicans. This year, it’s very likely that the IP cost the Democrats no fewer than three races. Al Franken is only 500 votes behind Norm Coleman in the fiercely contested battleground Senate race and could still conceivably emerge victorious in a recount, but it’s odds-against….and it’s abundantly clear that Independent Dean Barkley got more would-be Franken votes than Coleman. There’s no guarantee that Ashwin Madia would have won the MN-03 open seat if not for David Dillon, but the race would certainly have been closer. And the most disappointing result of the night was the re-election of one of Congress’ worst members, the execrable Michelle Bachmann in MN-06, made possible by a crackpot IP candidate who scored 10% of the vote that probably would have gone to Democrat El Tinklenberg. All things considered, it was a disappointing night in Minnesota.

Mississippi–Despite a robust African-American turnout, the needle didn’t move much in Democrats’ direction in racially polarized Mississippi. Obama bested Kerry’s performance by about five points, but Senate candidate Ronnie Musgrove was still handed a 10-point defeat at the hands of quasi-incumbent Republican Roger Wicker. I didn’t figure Wicker would win this race, but I figured it would be closer than this. On the bright side, Travis Childers won another double-digit victory in the very conservative MS-o1 race.

Missouri–The only thing worth celebrating in Missouri was a landslide election of a new Democratic Governor. It appears as though John McCain will prevail by about 6,000 votes in the Presidential race, verifying that Missouri is now more Republican than the country (who would have though 20 years ago that Indiana would be a blue state and Missouri a red state?). As I expected, both of the longshot House races went to the Republicans, narrowly in the case of Blaine Luetkemeyer for the MO-09 open seat, but in a crushing landslide in M0-06.

Montana–I’m fairly impressed that Obama managed to make Montana a three-point race. Polls early and late in the election cycle suggested it was possible, but only a month ago it looked like another GOP landslide in the works.

Nebraska–While Obama narrowed the gap by a good 10 points in the Presidential race, McCain still prevailed by a substantial 16-point margin and brought Republican Congressional candidates along for the ride. Scott Kleeb, one of the Democrats’ most impressive candidates, fell woefully short to Mike Johanns in the open Senate race while Lee Terry held on in his Omaha-based House district. Nebraska stays red.

Nevada–Pretty much everybody expected Obama would win Nevada, but could anybody have foreseen Nevada would end up bluer than Minnesota or Iowa? If this trend continues, it spells huge trouble for Republicans in a state that was a nearly uncontested GOP stronghold only 20 years ago. Republican Dean Heller hung on as predicted in his upstate NV-02 race, but Democrat Dina Titus took out incumbent GOPer John Porter in the suburban Vegas district.

New Hampshire–The blue tidal wave that crashed upon New Hampshire in 2006 was no fluke, with Obama scoring a huge double-digit win, taking along Democratic Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen and endangered incumbent Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter along for the ride with their own impressive victories.

New Jersey–Not much surprising in the Presidential and Senate races, with Obama and Lautenberg winning by fairly predictable double-digit margins. In the two battleground open seats in the House, it was a split decision, with Democrat John Adler narrowly taking the Republican-held NJ-03, but Republican Leonard Lance trouncing his seemingly strong Democratic challenger in the NJ-07 race.

New Mexico–Another state where Republicans were positively overwhelmed by a dramatic Democratic tide. Four years after George Bush eked out a win here, Barack Obama went on to win by 15 points this year. And if that wasn’t enough, the state’s Congressional delegation went from 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats to 5 Democrats and zero Republicans overnight, with double-digit Democratic victories in all three contested races. Of all 50 states, the Dems probably had their best night last evening in New Mexico.

New York–As expected, a 25-point Barack Obama blowout, but the real story is the near-invisibility of the Republican Party in virtually every corner of New York. Republicans started out last evening with six members of Congressional delegation that has now been reduced to three, with two open seats in Staten Island and Syracuse swinging to the Democrat and Eric Massa toppling an incumbent Republican in the state’s reddest district. The Dems did fail to get the red-leaning NY-26 open seat after a primary that turned into a comedy of errors and freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri had a scare in his race, ekeing out a 51-49 victory in a race not expected to be close.

North Carolina–A huge Democratic year in a state that seemed to be trending hopelessly Republican just four years ago, with a dramatic defeat for incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole, an apparent narrow victory for Obama in the Presidential race, and a Democratic gubernatorial victory that was no sure thing heading into election day. And the icing on the cake was Larry Kissell’s double-digit thumping of Robin Hayes in NC-08, a race the Dems should have gotten in 2006.

North Dakota–As I said at the outset, the exit poll data was horrendous again this year. At the time of poll closing, McCain appeared poised for a 15-point blowout in North Dakota while South Dakota looked to be breathtakingly close. In the end, both states had nearly identical margins with nine-point victories for McCain. I never really expected Obama to win here, but shrinking GOP margins from 27 points to 9 is impressive nonetheless, as well as Democratic victories in Fargo and Grand Forks, which even Bill Clinton failed to pull off. Now my top priority is making sure one of my favorite Senators, Byron Dorgan, isn’t swept out of office in 2010 against potential GOP challenger John Hoeven, who was just re-elected to the Governor’s office in one of the evening’s most lopsided blowouts.

Ohio–I was heartened to see Ohio called as early as it was for Obama and early exit poll data showing a huge win, but became disappointed when I saw the returns roll in and saw that Obama’s margins were entirely the product of running up the score in the northern part of the state, yet did not move the needle much if at all in the state’s Appalachian region as I had hoped. Hard to imagine that a place as economically decimated as Steubenville, OH, could continue to lurch rightward (officially going from blue to red this year). Nonetheless, it was nice to see Obama winning Hamilton County (Cincinnati), a feat even Bill Clinton never pulled off. The Cincinnati-based OH-01 also went to a Democrat, as did the OH-16 open seat in the Canton area. Surprisingly, it looks as though Mary Jo Kilroy fell short once again in the Columbus-based OH-15. Gotta be hard for her to lose two consecutive races she was expected to win. Nonetheless, a decent night for Dems in Ohio, but just like 2006, I still felt the state could have and should have done better.

Oklahoma–My prediction was that Oklahoma would be McCain’s best state. I thought its competition would be Idaho and Utah, but it was actually Wyoming that ended up being this year’s reddest state. Still, a nearly 2-1 McCain blowout in this increasingly hopeless state which also handed one of America’s worst Senators, Jim Inhofe, a near 20-point re-election victory.

Oregon–The annoying vote-by-mail tradition of Oregon is once again lagging the process of knowing the results. Obama won in a landslide as predicted, but it’s still soon to call the hard-fought Senate race. Early reports suggested that the Portland vote was entirely in, which led me to believe incumbent Gordon Smith would hang on, but now it seems as though most of the remaining vote is in Portland, which means Democrat Jeff Merkley is probably poised for a come-from-behind victory. The Dems easily held onto the OR-05 open House seat as well.

Pennsylvania–A very strong Democratic year in Pennsylvania for the second election in a row with Obama pulling off the double-digit victory that was expected and the Dems winning all the battleground House races. John Murtha won comfortably despite his megagaffe, Paul Kanjorski surprisingly held on, along with Jason Altmire and Chris Carney. We even picked up a GOP-held seat in PA-03, while only narrowly losing PA-06, a blue district without a top-tier challenger to Jim Gerlach which is easily one of this year’s biggest recruiting failures for Dems. The only other disappointment was continuing to watch southwestern Pennsylvania slip away from Democrats, with McCain winning over the last remaining blue counties encircling Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, Obama managed to win back Cambria County (Johnstown) which went Bush in 2004.

Rhode Island–Not much to report here. Landslide victories for Obama and every other Democrat on the ballot.

South Carolina–The high black turnout was successful in cutting Bush’s 2004 margin in half to nine points, but even in this environment, Lindsey Graham won by nearly 20 points against a weak opponent and two Democratic House candidates failed to topple weak Republican incumbents. South Carolina continues to be very inhospitable terrain for Dems.

South Dakota–Despite very bullish early exit poll numbers, it was the pre-election polls that were right about South Dakota as McCain won by nine points. Nonetheless, some very impressive inroads for Obama in eastern South Dakota farm counties, as well as wins in population centers Brown County (Aberdeen) and Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls, which I certainly didn’t see coming). Tim Johnson scored his first non-nailbiter Senate victory, winning by a 25-point landslide and sweeping all but four South Dakota’s 66 counties. The double-digit defeat of South Dakota’s overreaching abortion ban was also an unexpected surprise.

Tennessee–A very ugly year in a state where ugly years are becoming a regular occurrence for Democrats. Obama’s margin was no better or worse than Kerry’s four years earlier, but only because of a very strong Obama performance in Memphis and Nashville. Elsewhere, all but one of the Yellow Dog Democrat counties of West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee went red and in most cases dramatically red. Put this state in with Oklahoma as states that have become virtual lost causes for Democrats for the foreseeable future.

Texas–Last night’s returns for both McCain and Cornyn give a more balanced assessment of where Democrats stand in the state since native son Bush wasn’t on the ballot. Both Obama and Noriega narrowed the margins to low double-digits, with dramatic improvement for Dems in heavily Hispanic counties and outright Obama victories in Dallas and Harris Counties (I would have never predicted the latter would turn this quickly). In Congressional races, Dems fell far short in the longshot TX-07 and TX-10 races, and we unfortunately lost Nick Lampson, who I was pulling for because he seems like a good man…and a good Congressman. And Chet Edwards’ soft seven-point margin against a fourth-rate opponent is a wake-up call that he’s never safe in that crimson red district.

Utah–Modest growth for Obama in America’s reddest state, yet still a near 30-point deficit. It was nice to see Obama was able to do what neither Gore or Kerry was able to do and turn two Utah counties blue.

Vermont–Second only to Hawaii for Obama’s margins, it’s hard to believe that Vermont was the most Republican state in America up until 1992.

Virginia–A great year for Democrats in one of our most unfriendly states in the last half century, with Obama winning comfortably, a landslide victory in an open Senate race, and at least two Congressional seat pickups, one in traditionally conservative Virginia Beach and one in northern Virginia. Most surprising is the still-undecided VA-05 race where Virgil Goode is currently leading by the slimmest of margins. Hopefully this Democratic momentum continues.

Washington–A huge Obama victory is thus far the only headline out of Washington this year. The vote-by-mail tradition will delay the call of another jarlid-tight House race between Burner and Reichert in WA-08, but if the vote count follows the same pattern as it did two years ago, Reichert is probably favored to hang on.

West Virginia–Another incredibly disappointing election for a state that used to be one of our most reliable. Again, the GOP’s demagoguery about coal was probably worth at least a couple of points to McCain in this state, but there was clearly more working against Obama here. As coal continues to become more controversial, it’s hard to see how this state remains in the Democratic fold at any level for much longer. The only bright spot was the state’s northeastern most county, bordering Northern Virginia, turning blue this year, suggesting that a marginal demographic shift in the panhandle could help decide a close race or two to the Democrats’ favor.

Wisconsin–I was shocked to look at the overwhelmingly blue Wisconsin county map last night, where Obama had taken more than 75% of Wisconsin’s counties and overperformed both Minnesota and Iowa. I’m not necessarily sure why Wisconsin is such friendly terrain for Obama, both in the primary and general election, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth and hope for continued Democratic strength in future election cycles. The only contested House race in WI-08 also went the Democrats’ way.

Wyoming–I expected better of Wyoming than last night. Polls suggested the race between Obama and McCain was only half as lopsided as the two most recent elections where native son Cheney was on the ballot, but Wyoming still emerged as McCain’s only 2-1 victory of the night while both Senate races were won in 3-1 Republican landslides and House candidate Gary Trauner, tied in the polls until last week, lost by 10 points. Looks like the GOP will continue to have one stronghold in the Rocky Mountain West.

All said, hard to imagine a much better night for Democrats than last, even though we came up short in a few places where we shouldn’t. And now, the Dems own the levers of political leadership. Getting them was the easy part. Governing well enough to keep them in the current state of financial and global crisis will definitely be the hard part.

Perhaps the timing of this diary is irregular considering we want to see as many Democrats as possible elected next week, but my own selection is connected to the current state of the electoral battleground in a sense.  There are a number of strong contenders particularly in the House, and perhaps Tim Mahoney is currently the most obvious choice, at least for his brief remaining tenure in the House.  Those with the stench of corruption encircling them, such as William Jefferson or even John Murtha, would also be worthy selections.  Jim Marshall seems to be against the Dems on virtually ever major issue so I’m sure he’d get some votes.  But after the final clincher this spring, I offer the dubious honor to Dan Boren of Oklahoma….

Boren has always essentially been Lieberman on steroids in terms of bad-mouthing the Democratic Party, making several cringeworthy quotes about his party’s “out-of-touch leadership” going way back to his first election in 2004.  And of course he votes against us on essentially every major issue.  But I was most disgusted with him last spring after the primaries ended when Boren publicly declared he would not cast his superdelegate for Barack Obama, twisting the knife in the chest of an already divided party and making a destructive spectacle out of a vote that would have been uncontroversial.

One could almost understand if Jim Marshall had done this because Marshall is in a hotly contested district.  But Boren would not have lost his Congressional seat by keeping his mouth shut and casting his superdelegate for his party’s nominee….or even casting the superdelegate for Hillary in silence.  Instead, Boren stuck it to Obama and gave comfort to every Oklahoman with doubts about Obama.

I realize Boren won’t be going away and that a conservative Democrat is the only kind that can hold this seat, but I would love to see Brad Carson take this seat back.  At least he didn’t go out of his way to trash his party, and when pressed by Tim Russert back in 2004 on who he planned to vote for, said without hesitancy that he planned to vote for his party’s nominee.

I spent hours writing this as a Daily Kos diary and virtually nobody read it, but I figured some around here would appreciate the regional specifics and hope some enjoy the read.

It appears incredibly likely at this point that Barack Obama will be elected President in nine days, and I’m excited as hell to see the county maps roll in on CNN and USA Today websites on election night to see how much more blue there is on the national county map than in 2000 or 2004, when more than 80% of the terrain was colored red.  It seems certain that Obama will dramatically improve upon the 582 counties and independent cities that John Kerry won in 2008, but I’m wondering how many of those 582 from last time will be lost.  The ideal would be none, but looking at polling data from several states, it seems likely that a number of them are at serious risk.  Details below the fold.

Alabama–11 counties went for John Kerry in 2004, all in a narrow belt of heavily black counties south of Birmingham.  The only two that might be at risk are Montgomery County and Russell Counties, both of which Kerry won narrowly.  My bet is that higher black turnout than what was seen in 2004 will keep those counties blue, but I’m skeptical whether Obama will pick up more than those 11 Alabama counties.

Alaska–no counties so I’m scarcely interested in their undefined “election districts”

Arizona–Right now it seems Obama is poised to overperform Kerry in McCain’s home state.  Kerry won four Arizona counties, all four of which seem near slam-dunks to shade blue again.  There aren’t too many likely candidates for pickups beyond those four though.

Arkansas–Here’s where Obama is likely to cede some territory.  Obama is underperforming Kerry in Arkansas polls, and given that there are some Yellow Dog Democrat strongholds in Arkansas that are more than 95% white, it seems unlikely that Obama will hold all 21 of Kerry’s counties.  Likely gone:  rural counties in the northeast such as Clay, Randolph, Lawrence, and Poinsett; and at least a few southern counties that aren’t majority black such as Little River, Hempstead, and Bradley.  High black turnout in some of the 30+% black turnout counties could help flip one or two 2004 Bush counties to Obama, but I’d bet against it.

California–Kerry won 22 counties in California, but with few exceptions, the CA counties will remain polarized.  I’m not anticipating Obama losing any of the Kerry counties, but only see a handful of opportunities to pick off Bush counties, such as Ventura County and San Joaquin County.

Colorado–Kerry won 19 Colorado counties in 2004, several more than Gore did, picking off a number of Rocky Mountain counties but losing ground in the Hispanic-heavy region in and around Pueblo.  I’m hoping Obama regains the footing with Latinos that Kerry lost in that region and pick off Huerfano and Alamosa Counties, but more important to Obama’s statewide victory is the need to improve upon Kerry’s performance in the Denver suburbs.  He needs to grow the Kerry margin in Adams County and pick off at least two out of three of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer Counties, all of which went narrowly Bush in 2004.

Connecticut–Kerry won seven out of eight but lost Litchfield County in the northwest corner of CT.  I think Obama will win that one back as Gore did in 2000.

Delaware–With Biden on the ticket, I’m hopeful Obama can win at least one of two of Republican-leaning Kent and Sussex Counties.  Fortunately for Dems, they can win handily with New Castle County up north, the one county Kerry won in Delaware.

Florida–Kerry pulled out only 11 Florida counties.  My sense is that Obama holds those 11 (although fast-growing St. Lucie County is a question mark), and will probably pick up several more battlegrounds, ideally both Pinellas and Hillsborough (along with possibly Flagler, a Gore county) in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area.  Osceola County near Orlando is an option, as are a few rural counties near Tallahassee with high black populations that have narrowly gone Bush in the past but may benefit from higher black turnout this year.  Whether this would be enough for Obama to win Florida remains a question mark.

Georgia–Kerry won 26 Georgia counties, which may sound impressive until you realize there are 159 counties in Georgia.  High black turnout and a hard-fought Senate race seem likely to expand the number of Obama counties, but mostly in rural regions of southwestern and east-central Georgia.  It’s doubtful that any of the more heavily populated Bush counties in Georgia will turn blue this year.

Hawaii–Kerry won all four counties, but only narrowly eked out the population center of Honolulu County.  Obama should vastly overperform in all four Hawaii counties.

Idaho–Kerry won only one county, Blaine County, which is where he skiied in Sun Valley.  That will go Obama this year, and I suspect Latah County, which includes the college town of Moscow, will as well.  Beyond that, the pickings will be mighty slim for blue territory this year.

Illinois–Kerry won only 15 of Illinois’ 105 (is that correct?) counties in 2004.  Needless to say, Obama will perform remarkably better than that.  But I’m not sure exactly how many more.  Will Obama win the long-standing GOP stronghold of Du Page County next to Chicago?  It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet money on it in a national election.  Overall, I’d bet that Obama wins slightly more than half of the Illinois counties, but expect a sea of red in the southern Illinois counties (the region south of St. Louis and Decatur, aside from a handful of Dem strongholds like Carbondale and Cairo).  Several of the southern Illinois counties went for Alan Keyes in 2004 and many more voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary.

Indiana–This one should be fun.  Kerry won only four Indiana counties, but even if we assume Obama falls a few points short of winning the state, alot more turf would turn blue since 2004.  I expect most of Indiana’s population centers would turn blue, including counties like Vigo (Terre Haute), St. Joseph (South Bend), Howard (Kokomo), Tippecanoe (Lafayette), and Delaware (Muncie).  It’s possible even hard-core conservative Allen County (Fort Wayne) could turn blue.  The wild cards that will determine if Obama wins or loses Indiana will be southern Indiana, including Vanderburgh (Evansville) and the north river Louisville counties of Clark and Floyd.

Iowa–Even when narrowly losing Iowa, Kerry still won 32 of Iowa’s 99 counties.  If Obama is ahead by double digits this year, expect him to win the “Harkin coalition” of 60-some counties, essentially everywhere but the western two tiers of counties, and a few outlying GOP bastions.  Southern Iowa thinks and votes like conservative northern Missouri, so Obama may fall short in most of the territory south of Des Moines.  Still, it seems very unlikely that any of Iowa’s 32 Kerry counties will go McCain.

Kansas–Kerry won two Kansas counties.  Those two are still solid, but Obama is unlikely to gain much ground, but could conceivably win Shawnee County (Topeka).

Kentucky–Not good.  Kerry won 12 counties out of 120 in 2004, all but one in culturally conservative eastern Kentucky coal country.  The only Kerry county I feel solid about regarding Obama’s chances is Jefferson County (Louisville), where polling internals suggest Obama is vastly overperforming Kerry and likely keeping the statewide margins in Kentucky in line with 2004.  That indicates Obama is underperforming elsewhere in the state, and the very eastern Kentucky counties that Kerry won, by more than 60% in three of those counties, are the places where Obama was most fervently destroyed in the primaries, pulling in as little as 5% in a couple of them.  That suggests a serious cultural disconnect in play and I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama lost all 11 of those east Kentucky Kerry counties.  If he wins any of them, I anticipate they would be the staunch Democratic counties of Elliott, Floyd, Knott, and Breathitt.  Obama’s only pickup opportunity in Kentucky would seem to be Fayette County (Lexington) or Franklin County (Frankfurt), but I wouldn’t bet on either of those.

Louisiana–This one’s completely up in the air due to Hurricane Katrina displacements.  There are conceivably a few heavy black Bush counties that could be picked off with a high African-American turnout, but I’m not optimistic that Obama will net much more than the 10 parishes Kerry won.

Maine–Kerry won 14 out of 16 Maine counties in 2008.  It seems tough to imagine the other two going into the Obama column this year, but I suppose Washington County would be possible.  I doubt McCain will gain any of the Kerry counties, but Penobscot County is possible given Kerry won it by a half-percentage point.

Maryland–Five of Maryland’s 23 counties, along with the independent city of Baltimore, are usually all the Democrats can hope to get in Maryland given the overwhelming Republican tendencies of the rural parts of the state.  Both Gore and Kerry won these six and these six alone.  Obama could conceivably pick off Anne Arundel County and maybe one of those soft GOP counties on the Eastern Shore like Somerset, but he won’t encroach into GOP territory too much.

Massachusetts–Kerry won all 14 Massachusetts counties, and Obama should do the same.  If any switch, it’ll be Plymouth or Barnstable Counties in the southeast, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Michigan–Kerry won only 15 out of Michigan’s 83 counties, but as is the case with most of the Upper Midwest, Obama is poised to really build upon that number and conceivably win an outright majority of those counties.  Bush won many of his Michigan counties with very soft margins, suggesting a partisan breeze of only five points in Obama’s direction will turn multiple counties blue, including populous counties such as Macomb, Monroe, and Calhoun, as well as large numbers of thinly populated rural counties in northern Michigan and on the Upper Peninsuala.

Minnesota–Kerry won 24 of Minnesota’s 87 counties, and demographics suggest Obama stands point to significantly grow upon that, again potentially winning an outright majority of Minnesota counties.  Internals from polls of North and South Dakota suggest Obama is winning the eastern farm counties of both states.  If that’s true, it likewise means Obama is winning the populist farm counties of western Minnesota, which Gore and Kerry both got smashed in.

Mississippi–Kerry won an impressive 24 counties in Mississippi, but don’t expect that to change much in 2008 simply due to the racial breakdown of those counties.  Obama is likely to grow Kerry’s margins in most of those 24 counties, most of which are majority black, but I’d be surprised if he picked off more than one or two of the 2004 Bush counties.

Missouri–Kerry won three counties and the city of St. Louis in Minnesota…out of 115 counties!!!  Obama will do better than that, but not significantly so.  There are a number of counties encircling metropolitan St. Louis that should be favorable turf.  Boone County (Columbia) seems like Obama territory, and possibly Buchanan County (St. Joseph) north of Kansas City.  Still, I’m not expecting more than 10 Missouri counties for Obama even if he wins the state.

Montana–Kerry won six Montana counties, all of which seem solid for Obama.  Beyond that, it’s not inconceivable to imagine Obama victories in populous (at least for Montana!) Yellowstone County (Billings), Cascade County (Great Falls), and Lewis and Clark County (Helena), along with rural counties like Hill and Blaine that are winnable for Democrats with high Native American turnout.

Nebraska–Kerry won one Nebraska county in 2004.  If Obama gets as many as five, he’ll have done better than any Democratic Presidential candidate in my lifetime.  Possible pickoffs:  rural Saline and Dakota Counties, Lancaster COunty (Lincoln), and conceivably but doubtful in my opinion, Douglas County (Omaha).

Nevada–Kerry won only Clark County in 2004, but narrowed the gap to four points in Washoe County (Reno).  Obama needs Washoe to win the state, and early indications are that he’s winning it, but none of the other 15 Nevada counties are likely to be in play.

New Hampshire–Kerry won six of 10 New Hampshire Counties in 2004, but not among them were the two most populous (Hillsborough and Rockingham).  With current trendlines, it seems as though Obama should win those two counties, but is still unlikely to win the other two Bush counties.

New Jersey–Kerry won 12 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, two fewer than Gore won in 2000.  Those 12 counties seem secure, and Obama could pick off the Gore county of Salem (increasingly Republican Gore County, Monmouth, seems like a stretch) but is unlikely to pick off any of the twice-Bush counties.

New Mexico–Kerry won 12 counties in New Mexico yet lost the state.  If Obama wins comfortably this time, as polls suggest he will, he’ll probably take a handful of additional counties and grow his margins in some of the soft Kerry counties, but I suspect most of the ranch counties in southern and eastern New Mexico will remain red.

New York–Kerry won only 21 New York counties, but I anticipate Obama is poised to overperform Kerry in a number of upstate New York counties (as well as win back Rockland County and Staten Island in metropolitan NYC), particularly those that went Gore in 2000.  McCain will still probably win close to half of the upstate New York counties though, particularly those out in Tom Reynolds and Randy Kuhl country.

North Carolina–Kerry won 20 out of 100 North Carolina counties in 2004, five fewer than Gore did four years earlier.  Expect Obama to win as many as 35, with several heavily black rural counties in eastern North Carolina having gone narrowly Bush in 2004 that will be easier picking this time.  Obama should dramatically grow his margins in the population centers, picking off two pretty significant prizes including Wake County (Raleigh, Cary) and Buncombe County (Asheville).

North Dakota–Kerry won only four of North Dakota’s 53 counties in 2004, but polling internals shows Obama is ahead in eastern North Dakota now.  It’s possible Obama could be the first Democratic Presidential nominee in my lifetime to win Cass County (Fargo) and Grand Forks County.  At the very least, expect Obama to win 15 or more counties in North Dakota, as several of those eastern ND sugar-growing counties should be favorable territory for him if the statewide race is as close as polls suggest.  A high native American turnout could turn the tide in a couple western North Dakota counties such as Mountrail, but for the most part, western ND will still be bright red.

Ohio–Very tough to call this one as polls are all over the place.  Kerry won only 16 Ohio counties, the same number as Gore won.  Obama has to do better than that to win the state.  A high black turnout in Cincinnati is very likely to flip Hamilton County blue and Lake County in the Cleveland suburbs seems like a decent bet to flip.  But if we’re to believe the polling median that Obama is 5-7 points ahead in Ohio, that would mean Obama is likely winning some of the southern Ohio counties like Scioto (Portsmouth) and Ross (Chillicothe) that are generally bellwethers for statewide victory in Ohio.  There’s too much conflicting information at this point, and the poll spread suggests Obama could win as few as 12-15 Ohio counties or as many as 30.

Oklahoma–Gore won nine Oklahoma counties in 2000….Kerry won zero.  Expect Obama to repeat Kerry’s performance.

Oregon–Kerry won only eight counties amongst a sea of territorial red in this blue state, but Obama’s poll leads in Oregon are so substantial than I suspect Obama will win double his number of county victories, though still mostly in the northwestern quadrant of the state.

Pennsylvania–Another state that’s difficult to call.  Kerry won only 13 counties here, ceding some territory that Gore won in western Pennsylvania.  If Obama is really winning Pennsylvania by 10 points as the polls suggest, he probably is winning all or most of those 13 Kerry counties and then some, but the conventional wisdom is that Obama is underperforming Kerry in western PA, and could end up losing the culturally conservative Kerry counties of Beaver, Washington, and Fayette.  That certainly is possible, particularly if we assume Obama’s margins in PA are entirely the product of his running up the score in suburban Philadelphia counties such as Montgomery, Delaware, and Bucks.  Tough to call, but I think we lose some Kerry counties in PA, but also pick up fast-growing Chester County in exurban Philadelphia for Obama.

Rhode Island–Kerry handily won all five Rhode Island counties.  Obama will do the same.

South Carolina–Kerry won 15 counties, most of them majority black.  Obama could win back two or three more with high black turnout, but I’m not expecting to grow the county map much within South Carolina.  The I-95 corridor will remain blue, the rest of the state will remain red.

South Dakota–Polling internals suggest Obama is ahead in northeastern South Dakota.  That means Obama is likely to improve upon the nine SD counties that went for Kerry (but keep in mind that several of the Indian reservation counties will have a lower turnout without a battleground Senate race on the ballot).  It’s conceivable Obama could win 25 counties in SD, since most of the Daschle coalition in eastern SD are smaller counties size way that tend to vote as a bloc.  I doubt Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls), now the destination for college Republicans across the country, will go blue, but expect other population centers like Brookings County (Brookings), Beadle County (Huron), and Brown County (Aberdeen) to either vote Obama outright or come very close to doing so if current polling is to be believed.

Tennessee–Gore won 36 of Tennessee’s 95 counties, Kerry halved that by 18, and if Obama is lucky, he’ll get by only halving Kerry’s numbers to nine counties this year.  Obama should hold population centers Shelby County (Memphis) and Davidson County (Nashville) along with a couple of heavily black rural counties in West Tennessee, but some of the Yellow Dog Democrat rural counties in West and Middle Tennessee that have slowly slipping away for 20 years, including Smith County, home of Al Gore’s hometown of Carthage, will probably turn red.  A handful of tiny deep blue counties such as Jackson, Houston, and Trousdale may stay blue, but I anticipate losing the majority of them.

Texas–Kerry won only 18 counties in Texas, but I’m anticipating Obama to do much better.  Several of the majority-Hispanic south Texas counties (like Cameron and Frio) went narrowly Bush in 2004, and I expect to win them back.  Several population centers in Texas could tip.  I’d bet heavily on Dallas County turning blue this year, as Kerry narrowly missed it in 2004, but beyond that, Bexar County (San Antonio) and Nueces County (Corpus Christi) are also within the realm.  We might be close in the big prize of Harris County (metropolitan Houston) but I still think Obama will fall short of victory. Overall, I’m betting on 30 or more Obama counties in Texas this year.  The bad news…he’ll still lose more than 200 of them.

Utah–Kerry didn’t win any counties in Utah, but I actually think Obama has a chance in three of them this year, including the big prize of Salt Lake County.  The youthful mountain counties of Grand and San Juan in the state’s southeast corner are more likely to flip though.

Vermont–Kerry won 13 of 14 counties in Vermont and Obama will probably win the same 13.  Tiny Essex County in the northeast corner of the state seems likely to remain red though.

Virginia–Kerry won 13 Virginia counties and 19 independent cities in Virginia, and Obama should win most if not all of those locales, with the possible exception of those two southwest Virginia coal counties which remain question marks.  The good news it that Obama is poised to win handily in the important places, namely fast-growing exurban NoVa counties Prince William and Loudoun, both of which would have been inconceivable to see turning blue in 2004.

Washington–Kerry won 12 counties in WA, all on or near the coast.  There are probably about five or six additional counties in play for Obama, again mostly in the western third of the state.  Spokane County used to be a pretty reliable Democratic county, even going for Dukakis in 1988, but seems way out-of-reach for Obama 20 years later.

West Virginia–Polls seem to have backslid a little bit in West Virginia in the last week, and I suspect the end result will be just as bad as Bush’s 13-point victory in the state in 2004.  My anticipation is that the county map will look a little different though.  Obama may likely pick off 2004 Bush counties in population centers like Kanawha County (Charleston) and Monongalia County (Morgantown), but I’m not confident he’ll hold too many of the southern WV coal counties that Kerry won, aside from possibly McDowell and Boone, the bluest two counties down there.  Overall, I’d be surprised if Obama got more than seven WV counties, compared to Kerry’s nine.

Wisconsin–Even though Kerry won by the skin of his teeth, he still managed to win 27 of Wisconsin’s 72 politically polarized counties.  There are probably about 15 more counties in play if Obama has a double-digit lead in Wisconsin as polls indicate.  Most of the Obama pickups are likely to be found in northwestern Wisconsin.

Wyoming–Kerry won one Wyoming County, Teton, and Obama will probably win that and that alone as well.  Albany County (Laramie) may have enough youth votes to turn blue.

I wrote a variation of this on Daily Kos a few days ago but thought this crowd might like it as well.

As a lifelong student of Minnesota politics, I’ll do my best to rise to the challenge of handicapping the wildly unpredictable three-way contest between Al Franken, Norm Coleman, and independent challenger (and former Senator) Dean Barkley.  I currently live out of state but visit the parents every three weeks or so, where I keep apprised of the goings-on in the campaign, and get vague updates from my dad who is active in the county DFL.  And of course, I keep up with the ads via the Internet and the crazy all-over-the-map polls coming out of the race.  Anyone who says they know where this race is going is either nuts or alot smarter than I am, but I do have some insights on specifics from past races that could give some sense of what the future holds.

First of all, the Barkley factor.  I didn’t see tonight’s debate, but it was essentially the starting point for Dean Barkley.  Not many third-party challengers come out of the starting gates with 18-19%.  Most Independence Party candidates in recent years are left-of-center and very well-spoken eggheads either on an ego trip or a journey of personal discovery through their candidacies.  My impression of Barkley is that he’s best friends with Jesse Ventura for a reason.  Both are pretentiously “centrist” would-be intellectual egomaniacs with a few keen insights, but a hard-time avoiding self-aggrandizing bluster that over time turns voters off.

In other words, a little of Barkley tends to go a long ways, but in the limited exposure Minnesotans will get of him in the October debates, his shtick may not quite reach the level of diminishing returns before election day the way it will by next spring if he ends up getting elected and being Minnesota’s junior Senator.  Combine his ability to leave a positive initial impression on swing voters and the hunger for a protest vote against two major-party candidates with high unfavorables and Barkley could prove to be a problem.  I give him a 20% chance of winning this whole thing, and above-average odds of getting at least 25%.

But the debates will be critical.  Jesse Ventura rose from 12% to a 37% victory in a month by impressing enough voters in the televised debates, with the help of a few clever TV ads, and weak, bickering opponents (one of whom was Norm Coleman).  On the other hand, the 2002 Independence Party gubernatorial nominee Tim Penny had the lead three weeks before that election, but uninspiring debate performances and a charisma gap with eventual winner Tim Pawlenty caused the bottom to completely fall out of Penny’s candidacy, falling by more than 20 points to an unimpressive 16% showing on election day 2002.  If Barkley doesn’t stand out in the debates, he could just as easily plunge to Penny’s level of insignificance, or substantially much lower since Penny still had a regional stronghold in his southeastern Minnesota stomping grounds that likely boosted his statewide numbers by 5%.

But the question is, where do we want Barkley’s numbers?  Clearly, we don’t want them to get too high.  Despite the Star Tribune’s recent overly optimistic poll, I suspect Norm Coleman has a basement of about 40% in the state, and if Barkley is pulling in numbers higher than 25%, those votes are most likely coming at Franken’s expense.  For the same reason, I don’t want to see Barkley fall too low either.  My suspicion is that Franken has more people who would never consider voting for him than does Coleman, meaning a Barkley collapse likely benefits Norm.  Essentially, I think Franken is best positioned for victory if Barkley stays where he’s at in the high-teens.  If Barkley is polling 15-19%, Franken probably wins.

The regional internals of this race are just as difficult to handicap, but to quote Joe Biden, “past is prologue”, meaning there is some basis to predict where the three candidates’ strengths are likely to emerge from.  When looking at the county map from the 1998 gubernatorial race, you can see that Jesse Ventura’s victories came in the Twin Cities metro area as well as the rural counties of central Minnesota, west-central Minnesota, and south-central Minnesota.  The common denominator of these counties is that they all lie in the Twin Cities media market.  Just as Jesse’s exposure was broadest in the Twin Cities market, so will be Dean Barkley’s.  That means it’s more likely to be a two-candidate race throughout northern Minnesota serviced by the Duluth, Grand Forks, and Fargo-Moorhead media markets, as well as southwestern Minnesota serviced by the Sioux Falls, SD, media market, and southeastern Minnesota, serviced by the Rochester, Austin, Mason City, IA, and La Crosse, WI, media markets.  Franken has little control over how well Barkley plays in the metro area market, meaning his performance in the outlying areas is critical.

With that in mind, Franken needs to work overtime in Duluth and the Iron Range, where he has the best chance of running up the score on both Coleman and Barkley.  Outside of that, I’m not sensing too much favorable turf for Franken.  The Rochester area has been trending Democrat, but Republicans that meet their defintion of “moderate” still seem to do well.  Tim Pawlenty, for instance, won Olmsted County by 17 points in 2006.  Now that’s not to say Rochester area residents will view Coleman through the same lens as they did Pawlenty, but my hunch is that they’ll feel more comfortable with Coleman than Franken in a region that can still be best described as center-right.

That leaves northwestern and southwestern Minnesota farm country.  Coleman did very poorly, particularly in northwestern Minnesota, against Walter Mondale in 2002….and probably would have done just as badly against Paul Wellstone had he lived.  The myth of western Minnesota is that it’s full of right-wingers and is hopefully Republican, but that’s not the case, particularly in the farm areas which have a long-standing populist tradition and tend to vote Democratic more than Republican.  The region was skeptical about Wellstone’s liberalism for years, but anecdotal evidence heading in the 2002 race was that Wellstone’s long-standing fighting on behalf of family farmers was winning them over against New York City transplant and agriculture agnostic Norm Coleman.  Six years later, the tables are likely to have turned.  Coleman is now fairly well versed in farm policy and the former Saturday Night Live comedian is not a comfortable fit with the populist but socially conservative region.  It’s always hard to predict how these voters will go, particularly in northwestern Minnesota’s Red River Valley, but if Franken is serious about winning them over, he’d best draw the battle lines on the trade issue where Coleman didn’t stand with the sugar growers during the 2005 CAFTA debate.

My parents live in southeastern Minnesota and I know those media markets are running an abundance of Franken and Coleman ads.  I would guess the same is true in Duluth.  But I’m less certain about Fargo-Moorhead and Grand Forks.  Franken would be well advised to ramp up his campaign operation there, both in terms of campaign visits and TV advertising since he’s most likely to win over votes there based on the aforementioned policy reasons and the reduced effect of Barkley interference.  And I’d be very surprised if either candidate was advertising in Sioux Falls or La Crosse (Minnesota candidates rarely do), but if Coleman isn’t, it might be worthwile for Franken to do so in the final two weeks as a handful of counties in those corners of Minnesota are effectively isolated from Minnesota politics, and could yield some modest advantage for one candidate who does reach out that direction.

Franken’s challenge and opportunity is that the regions of the state where he is probably running the furthest behind right now are the very regions where he is best positioned to improve his standing with some savvy campaign moves.  But these areas account for only about 20% of Minnesota’s population.  Take the Duluth market out of the equation since it’s a safe bet Franken is already doing well there, and that number shrinks to about 10%.   But that could be decisive in a race this close.

Lastly, what to do if Barkley really starts catching on in the weeks ahead?  Does Franken go negative on him?  I’m hoping Franken is prepared for this possibility because Ventura went unchallenged in 1998 and ended up winning because of it.  Right now, Barkley appears to be more of a gadfly against Coleman, so it doesn’t make sense to go after him right now.  But the Barkley factor could change with just a few more percentage points of support, at which point Franken would be well-advised to poke some holes in Barkley’s story.

I was 13 years old in 1990 when I experienced two very exciting and unpredictable Minnesota elections (Wellstone v. Boschwitz in the Senate and Grunseth/Carlson v. Perpich in the Governor’s race).  Those races set the stage for several more wild roller coaster rides.  The 2008 Minnesota Senate race seems likely to carry on that fine tradition, and frustrating as it is to try to handicap these races based on what I thought I’ve learned from previous races, I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Note From Diarist:  This diary is primarily about the Presidential campaign.  I wrote it for Daily Kos but didn’t feel it got the exposure I was hoping for.  It’s very much inside baseball politics so I thought it might have some fans around here, but it is about the Presidential campaign which I know is no longer the focus of the website.  If the moderator wishes to delete it, I’ll understand.

Anybody following the horse race at all has a pretty good idea where the key battlegrounds are expected to be. My personal opinion is that the three markets that are most likely to determine the 2008 election winner are, in this order, Denver (including Boulder and Fort Collins), Detroit, and Northern Virginia. Beyond those three, there are at least a dozen markets in key battleground states that will be sucking up the vast majority of campaign resources in the next 50-some days until the election. That’s the way the game is played and always will be for as long as the Electoral College is a reality. My thought process this morning was dedicated to isolating some geographic hotspots that are perhaps under-the-radar of conventional wisdom yet could nonetheless be very productive investments of time and resources for the Obama campaign. The top-10 I came up with are listed below in descending order.

10. Flagstaff, Arizona–Because it’s John McCain’s home state, nobody expects Arizona to be a swing state in 2008. It probably won’t be, but the most recent poll released from the state showed McCain leading by only six in Arizona, a smaller lead than he held in the expected battleground state of Nevada. The Obama campaign needs to do some internal polling in Arizona and see if their findings reflect the recent polling of a single-digit McCain lead. If it is, I think it would be entirely worthwhile to pour some campaign dollars in the less-expensive media market of Flagstaff, which is already favorable Democratic terrain, and also to set up a campaign stop there. It would be very embarrassing for the McCain campaign if Obama went to the university town of Flagstaff and filled the streets with tens of thousands of screaming fans in McCain’s backyard. Obviously this is not something we’re likely to see in the closing weeks of the campaign, but for headfake value alone, it’s something worth doing in September.

9. Aberdeen, South Dakota–I’ve seen only one poll coming out of South Dakota, and it showed McCain with a scant four-point lead. I don’t expect Obama to win there, but I’m puzzled why the prospect of a competitive South Dakota is not even being discussed even when the polls are similar to those of North Dakota, which is a battleground. Aberdeen is a worthwhile target for a September campaign stop and television ads for a number of reasons. This is the Democratic part of South Dakota. Tim Johnson and Stephanie Herseth pulled out statewide victories in 2002 and 2004 by running up the score in the counties in and around Aberdeen. Given that the Democrats have adopted a much more friendly platform to controversial-everywhere-but-the-Corn-Belt biofuels than Republicans in 2008, Obama could pick off alot of GOP-leaning farmers in eastern South Dakota who don’t trust McCain’s commitment to agriculture. Beyond that, Obama could do a rally with hometown boy Tom Daschle and really make some connections to voters who were out of reach for Gore and Kerry. I’m not certain about particulars of the Aberdeen media market, but I suspect it would be one of the cheapest in the country for advertising, and cuts into portions of North Dakota making it even more useful.

8. Wheeling, West Virginia–I have a good friend who lives deep into the hollers of Logan County, WV, and still insists from her interactions that she believes Obama will win West Virginia. I suspect that puts her in a minority small enough to count on one hand, but I still think some outreach effort into West Virginia would be valuable, particularly in the Wheeling area. Obama essentially ceded West Virginia to Hillary in the primary, making only one campaign stop in Charleston on the eve of the primary. Voters there don’t know him, but I suspect that if more do, the margin for McCain in the state could potentially be far less lopsided than if he doesn’t set foot there. More importantly though, I think Wheeling is important for the same reason it was important for Kerry four years ago. The market cuts into Ohio and Pennsylvania, specifically the very blue-collar regions of Ohio and Pennsylvania where Obama has the most work to do to win over skeptics. I suspect campaigning in this area is something of a defensive move, meaning his best hope is probably to cut losses rather than win over Bush voters, but in the context of controlling losses within statewide races in OH and PA, the old adage that the best offense is a good defense certainly seems to apply.

7. Council Bluffs, Iowa–Each new round of poll numbers indicate that Iowa appears less likely to ultimately be a battleground state, with Obama managing double-digit leads in the state. Again, I surmise that the untold story accounting for Obama’s strong performance throughout the Corn Belt (even Indiana!) is ethanol, specifically McCain’s previous hard-line opposition to it. The reason Council Bluffs is a secret weapon is twofold. It’s location in the heavily Republican southwest side of Iowa means the Obama campaign is on offense there, competing for traditionally Republican votes in western Iowa, but also competing for votes in Omaha, Nebraska, just across the Missouri River from Council Bluffs. We don’t hear much anymore about the prospect of Obama winning one (or even two) of the electoral votes in eastern Nebraska, and it remains a longshot. Nonetheless, raising Obama’s presence in western Iowa will have spillover effect in Omaha and the corn farmers surrounding it in Nebraska, leaving the prospect of robbing McCain of a Nebraska electoral vote on the table while simultaneously running up the score in Iowa.

6. Durango, Colorado–Chances are, the suburban doughnut surrounding Denver will decide who wins Colorado’s nine electoral votes, but if the race is as close there as most suspect it will end up being, smaller Colorado markets loom large. The fast-changing demography of Colorado was abundantly clear in the 2004 election, and perhaps no place was the change more obvious than Durango, formerly a Republican stronghold in Colorado’s southwest corner, where population growth is apparently fronted by left-leaning young people drawn to the area’s ski culture. I believe there were only five counties in America that Bill Clinton never won in 1992 or 1996, but where John Kerry won in 2004. La Plata County, Colorado, home of Durango, was one of them. If we assume that the trendlines that had clearly transformed Durango in 2004 have continued, Obama should be able to grow upon Kerry’s margin rather significantly in the area in 2008. The fact that neighboring battleground state New Mexico is a few miles south of Durango is an an additional bullet point for its utility.

5. South Bend, Indiana–Congressman Joe Donnelly showed us the potential northern Indiana holds for Democrats if we simply try there. The lesson appears to be learned as Indiana is deemed a battleground state in 2008. South Bend strikes me as the most consequential market in Indiana. Notre Dame University gives Obama a youthful base of operation while simultaneously providing Obama an outreach to Catholic voters, a demographic long cited as one of his most difficult to reach. The South Bend market also reaches into southwestern Michigan, and despite fairly encouraging polls of late, I think Obama will ultimately need all the help in can get in Michigan. Probably outside of the South Bend market but still worthy of mention is another Indiana town in Joe Donnelly’s Congressional district, Kokomo. This is a blue-collar factory town that Democrats should be winning, but rarely do. Voters in Kokomo may be some of the most likely to swing if the Obama campaign reaches out to them in a serious way.

4. Elko, Nevada–In 2004, it seemed like John Kerry was spending more time in Republican-leaning Reno than in Democratic-leaning Las Vegas. I didn’t really understand it at the time, until I saw the election returns and noticed Kerry had significantly cut into the GOP’s advantage in Reno and surrounding areas. The reason Kerry lost Nevada was that he got absolutely destroyed in rural Nevada. Obama, by contrast, beat Hillary in most rural Nevada counties, meaning there’s at least a basis for thinking he could overperform Kerry in places like Elko. Campaigning and advertising in Elko would really be taking Kerry’s 2004 effort to go on offense in Reno to the next level. Considering Kerry got less than 20% of the vote in Nevada’s fourth most populous county, worse than both Mondale and Dukakis did back in the day, there’s easily room for improvement in the area, and even a little improvement upstate Nevada could be the difference in the state.

3. Cincinnati, Ohio–Now considering Cincinnati is the third-largest media market in what is considered perhaps the most critical battleground state, calling for an Obama campaign presence there is on the surface a no-brainer, but most importantly, I see metropolitan Cincinnati as the region of Ohio where Obama is best-positioned to make gains over John Kerry. Kerry narrowly lost Hamilton County (home of the city of Cincinnati and the core of its suburbs), but with a high African-American turnout in 2008, I strongly expect the county to turn blue. Just as important are the three crimson red exurban counties surrounding Cincinnati, which accounted for Bush’s entire margin of victory in Ohio in 2004. In every election since 2004, the needle has moved dramatically against Republicans in all of these counties (Butler, Clermont, and Warren), with Jean Schmidt, Ken Blackwell, and Mike DeWine, all badly underperforming traditional GOP margins in the area. If Obama can keep this trendline going and trim his losses by a few percentage points in suburban Cincinnati, it will go a long way towards offsetting his likely underperformance in the rural portions of Ohio. And to whatever extent the Cincinnati market is an outreach into Indiana is also a feather in our cap.

2. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula–With the racial polarization of metropolitan Detroit, enflamed by the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal, and Obama’s call for tougher CAFE standards fiercely opposed by Detroit automakers, the McCain campaign has some serious ammunition against Obama to take into Michigan. I fully expect Obama will underperform Gore and Kerry in metropolitan Detroit. With that in mind, the thought process should become where we can pick up additional votes in Michigan to offset the possible hemorrhaging in the population centers. To that end, it seems like a no-brainer for Obama to take his campaign up north…way up north. The blue-collar Upper Peninsula of Michigan is sparsely populated, but its demographics seem to align with other Midwestern areas that are Obama-friendly. More to the point, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan looks like Wisconsin, thinks like Wisconsin, and votes like Wisconsin. When you look at Obama’s healthy standing in Wisconsin polls compared to Kerry four years ago or Gore’s eight years ago, my thinking is that every Obama campaign rally that begins in Green Bay should make the quick drive to Marquette, Michigan, from there.

1. Fargo-Moorhead (North Dakota/Minnesota)–I suspect there is no other media market in the country where the needle will move more significantly in Obama’s favor compared to 2000 and 2004 than Fargo-Moorhead. To the extent that North Dakota has already been identified as a battleground state, Obama’s campaign already has a presence in the area, but may nonetheless not appreciate just how many things are working to their candidate’s favor here. First of all, the cities of Fargo and Moorhead are islands of youth in a region otherwise dominated by gray hair. That cuts to Obama’s advantage demographically. Furthermore, in addition to Obama’s more farmer-friendly stand on biofuels, the Democrats have an additional ace-in-the-hole here because the region is one of the nation’s top sugar-growing areas. The sugar industry has enjoyed its relative “cartel” status and has become decidedly protectionist since the passage of CAFTA in 2005, a vote which helped every Democrat on the ticket in Minnesota in 2006 score landslide margins in the Red River Valley. Particularly on the Minnesota side, this area is historically Democratic, even though both Gore and Kerry were destroyed here. This advantage on both sides of the river extends further to the Grand Forks area, a region of North Dakota where every Democrat needs to win big in a competitive statewide race. It’s expected that Minnesota is leaning heavily Obama, but don’t underestimate the pseudo-maverick image of John McCain fooling alot of moderate suburbanites in Minneapolis-St. Paul. That raises the stakes for Obama’s need to win in places like the Red River Valley, which early indications suggest he is poised to do.

I’ve been giving alot of thought in recent months regarding next year’s Minnesota Senate race.  It’s very difficult to predict how it will unfold as there are a variety of converging forces in play.  Have the second-ring suburbs that helped elect Norm Coleman to the Senate in 2002 tired of him enough to vote him out?  Will anybody outstate be willing to take Al Franken seriously?  Would Mike Ciresi put more of the state in play than Franken would?  It’s a crap shoot across the board.  Minnesota has clearly taken a leftward turn since 2004 and I expect that to continue next year.  On the other hand, I’m not confident in the positive coattail capacity of Hillary Clinton if she’s at the top of the ticket, which the odds seem to favor at this point.  For the first time in years, I really don’t know what direction this could go, but I’ll give it a shot nonetheless with thoughts on the candidate’s personal and demographical strengths and weaknesses.

I closely track Minnesota political demographics and go into every election cycle confident that I can guess how each region of the state will vote.  Some years my predictions are dead-on, such as 2004, while other years I’m not nearly as clairvoyant.  The 2006 midterm elections fit the latter.  At this point in 2005, I had predicted close races would ensue in both the Senate and gubernatorial elections.  The Senate race, in my estimation a year in advance, would be a classic Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota slugfest in which Klobuchar would dominate Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, along with northeastern Minnesota, while Kennedy would be competitive by scoring stratospheric numbers in outer suburbia and western Minnesota farm country, both of which he had represented in Congress and which I expected to bristle at “big-city lawyer” Klobuchar.  Needless to say, I botched that prediction badly, as did most of the pundits who also expected a close Senate race in Minnesota, failing to foresee that alleged wunderkind Mark Kennedy would run the worst Minnesota Senate campaign in recent memory.  Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race where I expected Democrat Mike Hatch to do well outstate and for Tim Pawlenty to score the same boffo numbers in the nonurban metro area that he did in 2002, the Old MN vs. New MN contest I expected to see in the Senate race actually did play out.  Needless to say, it was a humbling experience for a guy who thought he had it all figured out. 

Hopefully, I fare a little better this year, but the campaign dynamic doesn’t strike me as being as clearcut this year.  With that in mind, I’ll start with the incumbent and cite scenarios where each of the three candidates could win or lose next year….

Norm Coleman–The 2002 Senate election was very much an Old MN vs. New MN election, with Coleman compensating for his deficiencies among elderly outstate  voters by sweeping through suburbia with absolutely astounding numbers.  Conventional wisdom is that Coleman will need to hang onto the same Democrat-trending second-ring suburbs (Bloomington, Minnetonka, Shoreview, Eagan) if he’s to be re-elected in 2008.  That might be correct, but not necessarily so, as Coleman’s outstate numbers in 2002 were below-average for a Republican, based partly on Mondale nostalgia among the area’s older voters, but also the perception that Coleman was a city slicker disconnected with rural values.  It’s not clear whether that perception will hold outstate next year, particularly if Al Franken is the Democratic nominee. 

Given that 2008 is a Presidential election year, it’s likely that turnout will be disproportionately higher compared to 2002 in the urban DFL strongholds of Minneapolis and St. Paul, which produces an immediate math challenge for him.  Assuming that prediction is correct, Coleman will have to pick up votes elsewhere to compensate for the deficit.  Potentially key to Coleman’s chances is the increasingly unpredictable white-collar city of Rochester in southeastern Minnesota, formerly a Republican stronghold but growing significantly less so in recent election cycles.  Nonetheless, certain kinds of Republicans (like Governor Tim Pawlenty) still do very well in Rochester, and if Coleman can adeptly portray himself as a centrist with growing doubts about the war in Iraq, Rochester voters might be inclined to hang with him.

Al Franken–The ultimate wild card of a candidate.  On the basis of fundraising alone, he’s a force to be reckoned with, and will have every opportunity to revamp his image.  But at least so far, there is little evidence voters are ready to take him seriously.  His funnyman history poses a unique challenge in that he can’t simply come across as the class clown slumming in politics, but will also be expected to produce moments of levity during the campaign so he doesn’t disappoint people as “just another boring politician”.  From my observations, he has a hard time with that balance and can be less than riveting when speaking on meat-and-potatoes issues in front of crowds.  But if his ground game and political skills prove as effective as his fundraising skills, he has a helluva good chance against an incumbent with a 45% approval rating, but that’s a big “if”.

Franken needs to run at least 50-50 in the aforementioned second-ring suburbs to have a chance, because he’ll be smashed in the fast-growing exurban doughnut and will most likely face a struggle outstate, particularly if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee.  Outstate Minnesota has never had much of a fondness for Coleman in the past, so it’s not a lost cause for Franken, but he’ll have to earn his chops by touring some dairy farms and iron mines yet still avoid a “Dukakis in the tank” moment in the process.  That’s gonna be a tough needle to thread with Republicans chomping at the bit for an opportunity to portray him as “out of touch with Minnesota”.  I can’t say I’m optimistic, but am certainly not to the point where I can’t be persuaded to take Franken’s campaign seriously.

Mike Ciresi–In the interest of playing it safe, I would prefer to see Ciresi get the nomination over Franken, but I’m increasingly doubtful that will happen unless Franken makes a gaffe.  Ciresi is the “safe” candidate on every front, particulalry his self-financing ability, but there’s a fear he will be too safe, failing to excite the base enough to take down Coleman.  He was the presumptive favorite in the crowded field of candidates in 2000, but failed to seal the deal……against the uber-dreary Mark Dayton!  If Ciresi lacked the fortitude to hold back Dayton seven years ago, it’s worth asking whether he has what it takes to topple Coleman, who’s a much better politician in his sleep than Dayton.  Nonetheless, Ciresi hits the right buttons on the issues and could have a Klobuchar-esque ability to court GOP-leaning independents.  That’s just speculation, but back in 2000, Rod Grams was most worried about facing Ciresi compared to the handful of other contenders.

Demographically, Ciresi seems like an easier sell to second-ring suburbanites than Franken…..and these voters will almost certainly decide the outcome.  Ciresi’s “big-city lawyer” background is not a natural fit for outstate voters, but that didn’t hurt Klobuchar nearly as much as I expected last year…..and Coleman is much less loved outstate than what former country boy Mark Kennedy was expected to be, so I won’t take anything for granted.  Again, however, it’s almost a certainty that Minnesota’s outer-suburban growth zones will produce huge margins for Coleman, so Ciresi (and every Dem for that matter) will have to continue to improve their numbers in the rest of the state to compensate for the tens of thousands of new Republican voters coming out of the doughnut every four years.  In a hotly contested Presidential election, turning out the urban base and shaking out those “compensatory” votes doesn’t seem like it should be a problem.

That’s my early handicap of the 2008 Minnesota Senate race.  Expect to see this analysis expand and evolve as the campaign unfolds, and feel free to provide me any information I may have missed that falsely colored my thoughts at this stage.
 

(A very thorough–and very good–post-mortem from a longtime SSPer. – promoted by James L.)

I wrote this diary on Daily Kos a couple of days ago and that it would be equally appropriate here.  I realize it comes nearly three weeks later than most election post-mortems, but nearly all of my free time in the past 20 days has been dedicated to the digestion of as many election returns as possible, particularly in my home state of Minnesota where my knowledge is most prolific.  It was a very good year for Democrats in the state of Minnesota and I will document all the statewide and Congressional races of note, beginning with the two hotly-contested House races and then moving the statewide races.

I had a feeling in the closing weeks of the campaign that Democrat Tim Walz would pull off a victory in what only a few months earlier seemed like a kamikaze run against six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht, but I didn’t think he’d win by a solid six-point margin.  Considering Gutknecht’s mid-summer radio ad buys, I don’t necessarily think that Gutknecht was unable to see this challenge coming.  Nonetheless, his response to the challenge was absolutely abysmal, with boilerplate TV ads where the incumbent couldn’t even be bothered to make an appearance in his own commercials and a series of mismatched debate performances where Gutknecht was very clearly on defense at all times and losing badly to the charismatic Walz. 

I wrote a diary in September on how Tim Walz could eke out a victory in MN-01 with huge margins in his native Mankato and the college town of Winona, along with fighting Gutknecht to a draw in his native Rochester.  In the end, Walz won by huger margins that I would have deemed possible in Mankato and Winona, but also managed to win Rochester by an astounding eight percentage points.  Walz outperformed my expectations pretty much everywhere, padding his margin with wins in a few of the more conservative southwestern farm counties.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walz holds up in 2008 and (hopefully) subsequent election cycles.  The one thing that concerns me is that Walz’s presence on the campaign trail is his chief asset….and that presence will not be as abundant if he’s stuck legislating in DC rather than travelling the district full-time as he did in 2005 and 2006.  Nonetheless, an excellent win for Walz, who I saw speak on two occasions and evoked a level of passion that I haven’t seen since Paul Wellstone.  Keep an eye on this guy.  Big things could be coming from him.

As for MN-06, a number of things went wrong and helped voters in this conservative district fall into the arms of wingnut Republican Michelle Bachmann even though I predicted last summer that Bachmann was too conservative even for MN-06.  Since Bachmann got 50%, it’s not fair to say that center-left Independence Party candidate John Binkowski cost Wetterling the election, but it would have probably at least been close without him in the race.  Nonetheless, far too many things went wrong in this race for Binkowski to shoulder the blame.

Wetterling hemmed and hawed for months, stating at one point that she couldn’t win in this district and then pursued a Senate run.  When it was clear she wouldn’t get the nomination against Amy Klobuchar, Wetterling made an eleventh hour leap into this House race, breaking her word against a moderate Democrat El Tinklenberg who, in hind sight, would have probably been a much better candidate against Bachmann.  Bachmann’s reputation as the Legislature’s wingnut-in-chief helped Wetterling pull off a small lead in September polls, but that’s when the bottom fell out of her campaign. 

The polished Bachmann always mopped the floor up with the political novice Wetterling in debates and public forums and managed to mask her nutball tendencies to the voting public, all while the Wetterling campaign failed to effectively define her opponent.  In the end, some controversial ads by the Wetterling campaign (which I never saw) were heavily scrutinized by the local media and by the final week of the campaign, my dad was hearing from campaign insiders that Wetterling was toast. 

In retrospect, Wetterling’s respectable performance in 2004 was the product of running against Mark Kennedy and having him step into the trap of swiftboating a figure as sympathetic as Wetterling.  Without Kennedy making her look good by comparison this time around, Wetterling’s flaws were more easily apparent.  I’m expecting that Bachmann will make a regular habit of embarrassing Minnesota on the national stage, and could find herself perennially vulnerable in her district.  Here’s hoping the Dems give El Tinklenberg another shot in 2008.

(Click Read More for additional commentary.)

Regarding the statewide races, I start out with egg on my face over my early predictions of a close Senate race.  As recently as six months ago, I ascribed to the conventional wisdom that Mark Kennedy would be a formidable Republican candidate and that the Minnesota Senate race would be close.  Considering Klobuchar’s home base of Hennepin County and familial ties to the Iron Range was being pitted up against Kennedy, the golden boy of outer suburbia, I spun this as a classic Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota grudge match (which we ended up getting in the state’s gubernatorial election which I’ll get to later) that really excited me as an aficianado of Minnesota politics.

But what we ended up with excited me oh so much more.  How could I have possibly predicted that Mark Kennedy would put forth the lamest Minnesota Senate campaign since Democrat Ann Wynia in 1994?  Even in my wildest dreams, I could not have envisioned Amy Klobuchar riding out a 21-point landslide.  Her success touched nearly every nook and cranny of the state.  She won 79 of Minnesota’s 87 counties, as opposed to John Kerry who won 24 in 2004, and even Bill Clinton who scored what seemed like an insurmountable Democratic record of 76 counties back in 1996.  Klobuchar eked out narrow wins in some stalwart GOP counties such as the German-American settled Republican bastions of McLeod County (Hutchinson) and Brown County (New Ulm), counties that I never expected would be won by a Democrat in a statewide election in my lifetime. 

Kennedy even performed miserably in outer suburbia, winning only two of the six counties in his Congressional district, and by paltry margins of less than three points each at that.  In the end, the combination of the anti-Republican tide and Kennedy’s astounding weakness make me think even the hapless incumbent Senator Mark Dayton could have beaten Kennedy, but I’m thankful to Amy Klobuchar for not making me sweat out that prophesy.

It’s hard to say whether Klobuchar had coattails or whether the DFL mood of the electorate transcended her, but either way, Democratic candidates vastly exceeded expectations across the ballot in Minnesota.  In the back of my mind, I considered incumbent Republican Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer to be beatable, but I also believed that the inclination of center-left voters in Minnesota to cast their ballot third-party in low-profile races would likely drag Kiffmeyer across the finish line once again.

If DFL candidate Mark Ritchie was going to take out Kiffmeyer, with her built-in advantages in the St. Cloud area where she always scores huge margins, I figured it would be by the skin of his teeth.  Once again, I was wrong.  Ritchie beat Kiffmeyer by a convincing five points, winning big in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, where third-party candidate strength derailed Buck Humphrey’s chances in 2002, but also fighting Kiffmeyer to a near tie in the three main suburban counties (Anoka, Dakota, and Washington).  If you’re a Republican winning Dakota County by less than one percentage point, you will not win statewide.  Such was the case with Kiffmeyer.  And good riddance!

A Minnesota Poll from September showing DFL Attorney General candidate Lori Swanson with a nearly 20-point lead should have clued me in to how powerful not being a Republican was going to be in Minnesota this election cycle.  In some sense it did, as even though the Minnesota Poll always oversamples Democrats, the margin Swanson was polling against Republican challenger Jeff Johnson helped me breathe a sigh of relief that we would hold that office.  Nonetheless, I was surprised by the blistering margin of 13 points that Swanson won by, scoring victories throughout the state and winning 65 Minnesota counties compared to Johnson’s 22.

A much bigger shocker was the State Auditor race where I found it hard to believe an incumbent with the surname Anderson in Scandinavian-heavy Minnesota could lose to a challenger named Otto in a low-profile down-ballot race.  But much to my surprise, Democrat Otto smashed Anderson almost as strongly as Swanson did Johnson in the Attorney General’s race, winning by 11 points and winning 56 out of the 87 counties.  Anderson even got trounced in her home county (Dakota), which is a suburban enclave where she won by 16 points in 2002.

Just as stunning were the tremendous gains the DFL made in the Legislature, notwithstanding the sad defeat of Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson in his increasingly conservative central Minnesota district (unfortunately, I could see Johnson’s defeat coming more than a year ago).  Nonetheless, the breadth of DFL gains throughout the state was breathtaking and the list of Republican casualties jaw-dropping.  Phil Krinkie in Lino Lakes.  Gone!  Brian LeClair in Woodbury.  Outta there!  Carrie Ruud in Bemidji.  Good to know ya! The DFL picked up even more legislative seats in Rochester and somehow managed to pick up a Senate seat in freakin’ Fergus Falls, perhaps the deepest red redoubt of outstate conservatism.  The DFL now has nearly 2-1 supermajorities in both Houses, and we will definitely need them given that the DFL once again failed to pick up the statehouse.

And with that segue, I’ll now focus on the one disappointment for Minnesota Democrats on election night, and that of course is the gubernatorial election where incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty held on by a one-point margin.  I’m of the mind that DFLer Mike Hatch’s eleventh-hour implosion cost him the election, although there are plenty who disagree with that consensus.  Judi Dutcher’s “What’s E-85?” gaffe probably didn’t do it alone, but it probably cost Hatch votes in the corn belt as Hatch’s numbers were softer than expected in the lower reaches of the proverbial “L”.  There’s no other explanation for me why ethanol-heavy Swift County, a western Minnesota DFL stronghold and birthplace of the Farmer-Labor Party went for Hatch by only 7 points, and why the swing county of Renville (even more ethanol-heavy) a few miles down the road went for Pawlenty by nearly eight points.

But Hatch pointed the shotgun barrel at his other foot and squeezed the trigger with the “Republican whore” brouhaha.  When the first 10 minutes of a televised debate the Friday before the election is dedicated to the “frontrunner” defending his potty mouth, it’s unlikely he’ll be a frontrunner much longer.  I’m kind of surprised that didn’t hurt Hatch even more than it did, and probably would have if it had gotten more media coverage outside of the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market.  Visiting my parents in southeastern Minnesota the Friday before the election, the story was barely a blip on the local news, and Hatch’s numbers did not seem to be as suppressed in that region as they were in the metro area.  Similarly, Hatch’s numbers did not seem to take a beating in the state’s southwestern corner as much as they did in west-central Minnesota, which is in the Twin Cities media market.  Voters in the Worthington area are largely beholden to the Sioux Falls, South Dakota, media market, where Minnesota politics merits hardly a word, and where Dutcher’s gaffe probably never passed their ears.

And, of course, Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, can conclusively be branded a spoiler this cycle, with the DFL stronghold of Ramsey County giving Hutchinson nearly 10% of the vote (with most of it coming from the bluest districts in the city of St. Paul) and almost accounting for the difference between Hatch and Pawlenty by itself.  I’m not one to blame third-party candidates for DFL defeats, but if there was ever a clearcut example of that phenomenon in play it was this gubernatorial election.  Ultimately, it might be a blessing to have Pawlenty around heading in the 2008 Senate election, as DFL fatigue would be more likely to set in had Hatch been victorious amidst DFL supermajorities in the Legislature, and with Norm Coleman poised to be the beneficiary of that fatigue.  On the other hand, Pawlenty’s veep stock went up significantly with his victory, and he would now make a very attractive running mate for somebody like John McCain, increasing the likelihood of a Republican upset in Minnesota in the 2008 Presidential election.

As stated earlier, the Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota dynamic that I predicted would be in play in the Klobuchar-Kennedy race actually did take hold in the gubernatorial election, with Pawlenty winning in much the way he did in 2002, scoring supersized margins in the suburbs and benefitting from a third-party spoiler.  This warrants mentioning for 2008 because the Senate race is likely to follow the same trajectory.  It’s too soon to comment much on this matter without a DFL challenger selected, but Norm Coleman’s 2002 victory is likely to follow the exact same formula as Pawlenty’s this year.  Finding a challenger that can peel off more of those second-ring suburban voters than Mike Hatch or Walter Mondale (circa 2002) were able to is imperative in beating Coleman, because we’re at the point now where we can’t win statewide if we’re not victorious in the second-ring suburbs…and they will likely be just as difficult to take away from Coleman as they were from Pawlenty.

Then again, I totally underestimated Minnesota’s DFL tide in 2006.  I’ll remain optimistic for now that we can keep the ball rolling heading into the next cycle.