Author: RandySF

The confetti from last night’s LA-6 election has not even been swept away and excuses for the Republican’s most recent humiliation are already rolling out.  This morning, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza is trotting out the GOP’s argument for why they lost this seat and the IL-14, which they lost in March.

Given the competing national and local factors, both parties have a credible argument to make about today’s vote. Democrats will argue that Cazayoux’s victory in a Republican-leaning seat is yet one more sign that the Republican party’s brand is badly damaged and that independent voters are disenchanted with the GOP. Republicans will counter that both Jenkins and Jim Oberweis, the dairy magnate who carried their flag in the Illinois special election, were poor candidates whose losses should not be interpreted as a sign of anything other than that bad candidates often are defeated.

The tie breaker in this argument will come in ten days time when voters in Mississippi’s 1st district head to the polls in another special election — this one to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R). The northern Mississippi seat leans heavily to Republicans — Bush won it with 62 percent in 2004 and 59 percent in 2000 — and both parties have fielded credible candidates. Should Republicans lose in Mississippi, the panic button will officially be pushed among party strategists.

For tonight, the only clear winner is Cazayoux who comes to Congress and immediately becomes the favorite to win a full term in November. House Democrats also have to feel very good tonight, having grown their majority by two seats since re-taking control of the chamber in November 2006.

Tie breaker? There is no tie, we won the first two contested House races of 2008. How many more times do we have to win? The Republicans won for decades with morons like Jim Oberweiss and Woody Jenkins. Look at Jim Bunning and Tom Coburn in the Senate (and may more than I care to list). And how “credible” is Greg Davis when we all know he took awards from the neo-confederate CCC? Yes, Cazayoux is the big winner. It was his name on the ballot, but the victory was a team effort from the national Democrats to the netroots to local activists. This win is a DEMOCRATIC win. But before I wind this diary up, I want to leave you with last night’s press release from the NRCC.

“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”

Uhhh guys, who won?

I don’t think money will be a problem in our House races this year. According to Roll Call (subscriber only), the DCCC is sitting on a nice pile of cash.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Monday that it raised $20 million during the first three months of 2008 and finished March with $44.3 million on hand.

The committee, which has lapped the National Republican Congressional Committee in available cash all cycle, also reported paying off its last debts from the 2006 cycle in the first quarter of the year. It has raised $87.9 million so far this election cycle.

What’s more important, is that they are not doing it with the fat cats.

The DCCC reported that it had the highest grass-roots fundraising quarter of the 2008 cycle, tripling its low-dollar fundraising from the same time last year. The DCCC said it now has more than 2 million donors this cycle.

So if big donors want to blackmail Nancy Pelosi, they are going to have to find another way. The era of the oversized checkbook is over and, in this case, size no longer matters.

Why am I not surprised by this? Eric Kleefield at Talking Points Memo unearthed some information about Republican Congressional candidate Greg Davis and his assocation with local white supremacists.

In Mississippi’s Second District, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis agreed in 2001 to accept a plaque as a gift from the Council of Conservative Citizens, thanking the town for flying the state flag in the midst of a controversy over the flag’s Confederate emblems, according to press reports at the time.

There was a brief public outcry, during which Davis initially defended accepting the gift from the CCC, which is well-known for espousing doctrines of “racial integrity.” In the end though, Davis declined the gift. The episode involving the CCC hasn’t emerged as an issue in the current campaign — yet. But Davis won a seriously contested primary, and might just be vulnerable against Prentiss County clerk Travis Childers, the Dem challenger.

As with Woody Jenkins in Louisiana, old habits die hard. Davis eventually distanced himself from the group and their award, but his first and most basic impulse was to accept their embrace and defend doing so. That alone should speak volumes about his basic character and I hope the good people of MS-01 will speak loudly next week.

Today, it was my plan to start focusing less on presidential diaries and more on Congressional races. But, thanks to John McCain, I have the opportunity to write a diary that focuses on a little of both. As we all know, the corrupt Rick Renzi is retiring to face a grand jusry, but it gets even better. McCain is doing his best to help Democrats win this seat According to the progressive blog Down With Tyranny! McCain has decided to endorse a candidate who used his ifluence to get his rapist son out of jail.

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Complicating the matter further, is that McCain, in a pique of typically hysterical vindictive pigheadedness, forced the local AZ-01 Republican Party to jettison their favorite candidate to try to hold Renzi’s seat, Kris Mayes (who McCain holds a grudge against because she once worked for the Arizona Republic), in favor of a McCain crony, Ken Bennett. The problem with Bennett isn’t that he’s a McCain crony but that he is widely hated in AZ-01 for using his influence to free his son from punishment after the younger Bennett was convicted of using broomsticks and flashlights in 40 incidents of rape against 18 young boys, many repeatedly.

In case there is any doubt about Clifton Bennet’s guilt.

The son of state Senate President Ken Bennett admitted in court Monday to assaulting middle school boys with a broomstick in their rectal areas, but a judge allowed charges against him to be reduced from 18 to one, and he may avoid jail.

Three of the 18 victims, all boys between the ages of 11 and 15, are from Tucson, and the families are angry that 18-year-old Clifton Bennett and co-defendant Kyle Wheeler, 19, were not charged with sexual assault.

So Mr. Straight Talk does not really care about crime, or victims’ rights. He doesn’t even care about his own party. America needs to know the truth about McCain. But in the meantime, we owe him out thanks for the assist in turning this seat blue.  

Something is going on in the Houstin area that is making local and national Democrats take notice. Michael Skelly, Democratic candidate for the 7th Congressional District is seeking the seat once held by George H.W. Bush, according to the

Politico.

Democrats have been increasingly bullish about their ability to win over suburban, ancestrally Republican House districts that have been trending in their party’s direction over the past decade.

But their party’s latest target shows just how confident Democrats have become. Democrats are eyeing one of the most reliably Republican seats in the heart of Texas — Rep. John Culberson’s suburban Houston district, once held by President Bush’s father — and have a candidate who is causing a stir due to his prolific fundraising.

Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.

Currently, the seat is rated “Safe Republican” by Congressional Quarterly, but we have a candidate who is taking the race seriously, and perhaps so should we.

There is no longer ANY doubt that Jackie Speier is about to run for Congress against Tom Lantos. The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that former State Senator Jackie Speier is staffing up.

Demo derby: Former state Sen. Jackie Speier has just signed Mayor Gavin Newsom’s onetime campaign manager Alex Tourk to help launch her still-unofficial campaign to unseat Peninsula Congressman Tom Lantos in next June’s Democratic primary.

“She hasn’t declared yet, but she asked me to join her team – and I’m honored to be part of it,” Tourk said Friday. “And I’m confident when people are reminded of her record and talk to her one-on-one in house meetings, there will be no doubt her time is now.”

Some of you from the Bay Area may remember that Tourk is the now ex-husband of Ruby Rippey-Tourk with whom Newsom had an affair. You may also that Tourk is a very talented, well-connected operative who is highly thought of by everyone in the City’s political commnity. To score this guy is a huge plus in Speier’s favor. It also means that she will be playing to win. However, I do not think he is familiar with the blogging commnuity. We’ll see what happens, but expect fireworks this Spring and Summer.

Evidence of Tom Davis’ impending retirement continues to mount. Red Virginia is reporting that Davis’ campaign manager will soon be on his way out.

Tom’s campaign manager Nick Meads is rumored to be leaving the campaign and returning to his home state of Pennsylvania. This is a HUGE LOSS on top of Foreman and the 2 Chris’s. Who is next, Dave Thomas???

I think it’s a matter of when Davis has his next job lined up before he formally announces the obvious.

All indications are that Tom Davis will NOT seek reelection in the VA-11, according to the Republican blog Red Virginia.

Breaking… Tom Davis is closing down his campaign office. This is coming after he already has 2 primary opponents – so why is he closing down his office? Reports are that he is donating all of his office equipment to Fairfax County Republican Committee and he is leaving the campaign office by the end of the year. This means TOM DAVIS WILL NOT BE SEEKING RE-ELECTION!!!!

More coming….

UPDATE: On top of Dave Foreman’s departure, Christian Deschauar and Chris Espinoza have also left the Davis team. Both Chris’s and Dave were the Annandale District Office staff. This continues to add onto the long list of reasons that Tom Davis is RETIRING.

DEVELOPING… (More to come from Tom Davis Annual Christmas Party)

UPDATE 2: After attending Tom’s Christmas party there is much to report… Tom was not campaigning. In fact, several guests commented to me that it was somber. Tom and Jeannemarie did not work the crowd! The tone of the event screamed DEFEAT. Attendance was very low, perhaps because he forgot to invite people- incredibly, TOM FAILED TO INVITE THE BRADDOCK AND SULLY DISTRICT REPUBLICAN COMMITTEES. .

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING!!!

Mark this down as a pickup. Welcome back, Congresswoman Byrne.

If Bob Novak is correct, then John Sununu must be looking for a new pair of pants. The Prince of Darkness is reporting that Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is very likely to enter the Senate race.

New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that she there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run for Senate against Sen. John Sununu (R). There is no need for her to move too quickly, since the state is currently consumed with presidential politics, and she already has universal name recognition there.

I hope she announces soon so the other canddiates can decide what to do. Until Shaheen confirms this herself, I wil continue to support Steve Marchand. Either way, New Hampshire is looking blue in 2008.

If you ever watched the movie “Top Gun”, this guy is the real thing and he’s running for Congress as a Democrat according to Raising Kaine.

As a Naval Flight Officer, I led over 200 people as a commanding officer of a fighter squadron and I was a TOPGUN instructor.  I am a combat veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and I was one of few aviators awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for valor in combat.  Upon my return, I worked directly for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I am a leader, and I understand first-hand the complexities of this war and the need to create an exit strategy to bring our troops home safely.

I have a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy.  At the graduate level, I have a Master of Arts in National Security Studies and a certificate in legislative studies from Georgetown University.  I’ve studied economics for a term at Oxford University in England.  I?ve completed a political candidate training program at UVA?s Sorensen Institute, and I was a national security fellow at MIT’s Seminar XXI fellowship program.  For a living, I sell Navy jet aircraft for Boeing. 

I am most proud of my role as husband to a wonderful wife and father to two terrific kids.  I ask you to join me as I fight to change America?s future and improve our lives in Virginia?s 11th District.  Please vote for me on November 4, 2008.

Well, he apparently assumes there will be no primary, which there will be if Tom Davis leaves the seat. This guy looks like he comes out on Central Casting and is definately worthy of a look.