Author: StephenCLE

Predictions Part 2 – The Mid-Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic is a mostly democratic region, but it’s not as impenetrable as the Northeast.  There are even parts of it that are really quite Republican in nature, especially in Pennsylvania.  There are quite a few competitive seats in this region too, moreso than in the Northeast.  

New Jersey-1 – Robert Andrews/Democrat – We start here in Philadelphia’s eastern suburbs, and where Andrews is well entrenched in a solidly democratic district.  Nothing to worry about for him.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-2 – Frank Lobiondo/Republican – Having vacationed many a year on the south jersey coast, it annoys me that Lobiondo continues to skate in a D-leaning seat.  He won by 20% over David Kurkowski in 2008 while Obama beat McCain by 9 in this south jersey district.  Given that, and the fact that the Dems haven’t produced a top tier challenger, it’s doubtful Lobiondo is going anywhere.  It would’ve been nice if incoming governor Chris Christie picked him for Lt. Gov, which would’ve opened the seat up.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-3 – John Adler/Democrat – Adler picked this seat up in 2008 with a narrow 4% victory over Chris Myers.  He was a great fundraiser last cycle, allowing him to outspend Myers nearly 2-1, and he’s raised 1.4 million plus so far this cycle.  He caught a break when state senator Chris Connors didn’t run, but he still has to deal with NFL offensive tackle John Runyan.  A divisive primary is still possible though as local Republican committees in the 3rd are not on good terms with one another.  Ultimately I’m a bit skeptical of Republican chances here since rich athletes are often not well received by voters, though that’s not a hard and fast rule.  

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

New Jersey-4 – Christopher Smith/Republican – What’s happened in the 4th?  After Al Gore carried the district in 2000, the district has since trended Republican.  McCain won by 5% over Obama and the entrenched Christopher won by 34%.  Sorry, this one ain’t happening.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-5 – Scott Garrett/Republican – The 5th district is a traditional Republican stronghold in the north of the state, and Garrett’s 12% win in 2008 largely mirrored the presidential vote there.  Though he’s been around since 2002 I don’t think of him as entrenched, but he’s not a liability either, and I don’t see a first or second tier democrat out there to make this a race.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-6 – Frank Pallone/Democrat – The hideously shaped 6th, which runs from inland around Sandy Hook southward along the coast, is very Democratic.  It also has a well entrenched incumbent in Pallone.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-7 – Leonard Lance/Republican – Lance’s 8-point win in 2008 was a bit of a shock, as he had won by only 1 point in 2006.  Lance has been a moderate, independent voice for the most part, a rarity amongst house republicans.  The Democrats do have several options here.  Fanwood mayor Colleen Mahr is a possible candidate, and businessman Ed Potosnak is in.  2006/8 candidate Linda Stender might be back for another round as well.  Lance’s ability to straddle the middle effectively will make him a tough out though, no matter who wins the Dem primary.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating  – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

New Jersey-8 – Bill Pascrell/Democratic – Heading inward toward the NYC suburbs now, Pascrell has been around quite a while and has a nice democratic district.  And so far, he has no confirmed opposition either.  

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-9 – Steven Rothman/Democratic – This is another Dem-leaning district with a long standing incumbent.  A Republican challenge is probably not going to amount to much here.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-10 – Donald Payne/Democratic – This is the most Democratic district in New Jersey, and one of the most Democratic in the nation.  No republican can beat these odds.

District PVI – D+33

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-11 – Rodney Frelinghuysen/Republican – This is a mostly Republican district in the state’s northwest, and so far, the Democrats don’t even have a candidate against Frelinghuysen.  It’d be an uphill battle for sure against the entrenched incumbent.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-12 – Rush Holt/Democratic – Another snake-like district here, which seems like a majority of districts in New Jersey.  Holt is pretty well entrenched, but his district isn’t overly democratic.  The republicans have three challengers thus far, and the most notable of them is Michael Halfacre.  I’m not sure that any of these Repubs can make this a race, but given the PVI and the national environment, I can’t completely rule out the possibility.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-13 – Albio Sires/Democratic – This district isn’t quite as blue as NJ-10, but honestly, you’d need a cash in the freezer type of scandal to get a republican victory here.  

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Delaware-1 – Open/Republican – Lordy lordy, now isn’t this a sight?  Mike Castle’s departure here has opened up Delaware’s lone House seat, and with Lt Governor John Carney in the race, this seems like a slam dunk for the Democrats.  The only confirmed Repub in the race is insurance salesman Fred Cullis.  While the national environment and the possible pull of Castle at the top of the ticket in the Senate race prevents me from moving this to lock status, it’d be very difficult for the Repubs to hold.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Pickup (1st overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +2

Maryland-1 – Frank Kratovil/Democratic – Kratovil pulled an upset here in the first district in 2008 after Andy Harris knocked out incumbent Wayne Gilchrest in the primary.  The win total was less than 1%, in a district that went hard for McCain 58-40.  Harris is back, but he won’t have the primary for himself, as there are 3 other Repubs in the race.  Kratovil has raised 1.1 million so far, while Harris has topped 600k thus far, so unless Harris gets torpedoed, this is going to be knock-down drag out political warfare.  In the end, I think this district is simply too conservative for Kratovil.  Harris may not be able to rejoice even if he does win though, MD-1 is bound to become much more democratic in redistricting.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (4th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +3

Maryland-2 – C.A. Ruppersberger/Democratic – This district, which encompasses the northwestern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, is fairly democratic.  Ruppersberger won by 43% in 2008 and is well entrenched.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-3 – John Sarbanes/Democratic – This is a hideously gerrymandered district, one of the worst in the nation, which spreads from Annapolis to Baltimore.  Sarbanes is fairly well entrenched here even though he’s only a sophomore.  Obama won by 20% here, so any Republican would face a very uphill battle.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-4 – Donna Edwards/Democratic – This is the most democratic district in Maryland, and one of the most democratic in the nation, consisting of Washington D.C. suburbs mostly.  Nothing of interest to see here.

District PVI – D+31

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-5 – Steny Hoyer/Democratic – This southern Maryland district is, like many others in the state, reliably democratic.  Hoyer is extremely well entrenched, as he hasn’t had a re-election with under 60% in over a decade.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-6 – Roscoe Bartlett/Republican – This district, which encompasses the mountainous west of the crab state, is a very conservative stronghold within a liberal state.  Bartlett, who’s well entrenched but was held under 60% in 2008, shouldn’t have to sweat too much, this year.  2012 could be another matter as his district is sure to become much more democratic in redistricting.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Maryland-7 – Elijah Cummings/Democrat – This Baltimore-based district is extremely democratic, and as such should be an easy hold for Cummings.  

District PVI – D+25

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-8 – Chris Van Hollen/Democrat – The head of the DCCC, Van Hollen’s district is very safe, which should allow him a lot of leeway to help out other democrats in their re-elections.  As far as I know he is running unopposed thus far.

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

District of Columbia-1 – Open/Independent – It’s a travesty that Washington D.C gets no representation in Congress.  Ridiculous.  

Pennsylvania-1 – Robert Brady/Democrat – We now move into what could be the most interesting state in the nation for House elections in 2010.  It’s just that the excitement won’t be here, as this Philadelphia-based district is one of the most democratic districts in the country.

District PVI – D+35

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-2 – Chaka Fattah/Democrat – One more major Democratic stronghold to go, this one also in Philadelphia.  Fattah won’t be up late at night worrying about his re-election, as this is the 4th most democratic district in the country.

District PVI – D+38

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-3 – Kathy Dahlkemper/Democrat – Dahlkemper scored a big win in 2008, defeating 7-term incumbent Phil English by 3%.  The presidential vote here was a virtually tie, but the district usually is slightly republican in nature.  The bad thing for the Repubs is that they don’t have any great options here, their primary is a free-for-all.  Businessman Paul Huber has assumed the fundraising lead on the R side, as he’s come down with almost 300k so far, but that pales in comparison to Dahlkemper’s 900k.  Ultimately, I think it’s very telling to take out a 7-term congressman on your first run for elected office.  Dahlkemper could be a rising star in the Democratic Party.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-4 – Jason Altmire/Democrat – Altmire was one of the Democrats in the class of 2006, when he defeated 3-term incumbent Melissa Hart.  Altmire beat Hart again in the 2008 rematch by 12% even though Obama struggled, losing by 11% to McCain.  Altmire has a record of voting independently in the House, as he has defected 20% of the time on key votes according to CQ.  The Republicans have a good shot here, but like in PA-3, they’ve struggled in recruitment a bit.  Former US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan and former DHS employee Keith Rothfus are the primary Repub contenders.  Altmire has been on a fundraising tear, having raised 1.27 million thus far.  Like Dahlkemper, Altmire has the look of an up and comer in the democratic caucus.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-5 – Glenn Thompson/Republican – The 5th, which consists of north-central Pennsylvania, is mostly Republican territory.  Thompson won an open seat race in 2008 by 16% over Democrat Mark McCracken and has fundraised well this cycle.  So far the Democrats have not fielded a candidate either.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-6 – Jim Gerlach/Republican – This district, which encompasses the western portion of the Philadelphia metroplex, is a big partisan battleground that has trended democratic.  Gerlach had a tough re-election which he won by 4% over little known Bob Roggio.  Obama won here by 17% in 2008, which might explain why Gerlach decided to go for the governorship early this cycle before coming back to the House race.  Gerlach is facing a primary challenge largely because of his earlier exit, the prominent challenge is from businessman Steven Welch.  The Democrats have two prominent candidates here, physician Manan Trivedi and editorial writer Doug Pike.  Pike has been a fundraising bull, raising 1.36 million thus far to Gerlach’s 360k, which could blunt Gerlach’s advantage of incumbency if that matchup occurs.  Very difficult district to predict, but the Dems are in great shape.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (2nd overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +2

Pennsylvania-7 – Open/Democratic – An open seat in a partisan battleground is always bad news for the incumbent party, and when Joe Sestak bolted to face Arlen Specter in the Dem Senate primary, that happened here.   Amazingly, both fields appear to have cleared here.  The Republicans got their first choice of candidates, former county district attorney and federal prosecutor Patrick Meehan.  On the Democratic side, state representative Bryan Lentz is the man.  Meehan so far has raised 791k, and Lentz has raised 515k.  One of the problems Meehan might face here is a candidacy from independent conservative Jim Schneller, who might divert votes away from Meehan in a close race.  Regardless, this seat, like the adjoining 6th, is going to be the sight of a major partisan battle.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-8 – Patrick Murphy/Democratic – This Bucks County based seat in Philadelphia’s northern suburbs has trended democratic in recent years.  Patrick Murphy’s razor-thin 1% win in 2006 over Mike Fitzpatrick made him the first Iraq war veteran elected to Congress.  After a larger win in 2008, Murphy is gearing up for a rematch with Fitzpatrick, who recently declared.  The incumbent has been a great fundraiser, having raised nearly 1.5 million thus far.  It remains to be seen whether Fitzpatrick can shake off the rust, but his presence makes this a race.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-9 – Bill Shuster/Republican – This district, which makes up most of south-central Pennsylvania, the part sometimes referred to as “Pennsyltucky”, is extremely Republican.  Shuster won’t have any trouble keeping his seat.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-10 – Chris Carney/Democrat – Chris Carney took out a scandal-tainted incumbent in 2006 to take hold of this seat, but it was his 13% win in 2008 that really turned heads.  This is a fairly reliably republican district that favored McCain 54-45 over Obama, but Carney has done a good job portraying himself as a centrist.  The best part about it is that the Republican primary field is jammed, with no clear favorite.  The NRCC is highest on former US attorney Tom Marino, but having just got in, he’ll have to make up ground in the fundraising and name ID game.  The conservatism of the 10th will help the Repub primary winner, but Carney has proven himself very capable.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-11 – Paul Kanjorski/Democrat – Kanjorski was in a lot of trouble in his 2006 and 2008 re-elections, but the national tide helped keep his tenure alive.  He beat Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta by 3% in 2008, but underperformed Obama by 12 points, as the latter won by 15% over McCain.  2008 Repub candidate Barletta is back, but he faces a primary from attorney (noticing a trend here?) Chris Paige, a primary that is already becoming quite contentious.  Kanjorski is facing a primary as well, from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien.  Like PA-6, this district could come down to who makes it to the general election, but if it’s a Barletta-Kanjorski rematch, I don’t like our chances.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (5th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +3

Pennsylvania-12 – Open/Democratic – Jack Murtha’s passing has rendered this seat open, but it’s far too early to discuss the possible electoral ramifications here.  Without going too far into detail, this is a locally democratic district that has started to trend rightward at the national level.  I’ll keep this in the Dem column for now.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-13 – Allyson Schwartz/Democrat – This suburban Philadelphia district, which encompasses most of Montgomery County, is reliably democratic these days.  The entrenched Schwartz shouldn’t have much of a problem here.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-14 – Mike Doyle/Democrat – PA-14, which encompasses the city of Pittsburgh and it’s very inner suburbs, is an extremely democratic district.  Doyle is safe.

District PVI – D+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-15 – Charlie Dent/Republican – The Lehigh Valley based 15th has been a long-running frustration for democrats, as they have been unable to find a good challenger for Dent, who won by 17% in 2008 even as Obama won by 13% over McCain.  But this cycle, the frustration might be over, as their #1 option, Bethlehem mayor John Callahan is in.  His entry cleared the primary field and has given democrats reason to believe they can knock off Dent, who’s either a centrist or a faux-moderate depending on which side you’re on.  So far Dent has raised 888k this cycle, and Callahan has raised 725k, though Callahan has spent much less and thus has more cash on hand.  The environment may help Dent, but regardless, this is going to be one heck of a fight.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-16 – Joe Pitts/Republican – This district, which encompasses Lancaster and exurban Philly, was once hugely conservative, but is starting to trend democratic.  That being said, Joe Pitts is a fairly entrenched incumbent and should be able to hold the seat easily in 2010.  Look out though if this seat comes open later down the road, it could be in play.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-17 – Tim Holden/Democrat – Holden has been a thorn in the Republicans’ side since his 2002 election.  He’s been racking up fairly big margins despite the 17th’s overall conservatism.  He won by 27% in 2008 even though John McCain won the presidential vote by 3% over Obama.  Like the Dems in the 15th, the Repubs have been frustrated by their lack of recruiting here.  This cycle they are feeling a bit more upbeat due to the entry of state senator Dave Argall.  He’ll have to get by businessman Josh First and marine veteran Frank Ryan in the primary first though.  The environment and Holden’s lackluster fundraising thus far tells me that this race could be a big fight, but Holden’s past success says otherwise.  Hard to tell.  I’m going to skirt the middle of the two extremes with this pick.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-18 – Tim Murphy/Republican – This hideously drawn district in southwestern Pennsylvania is trending rapidly Republican, and Murphy is pretty well entrenched at this point.  In this environment he probably won’t see much of a challenge.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-19 – Todd Platts/Republican – According to CQ, Platts might be in the running for the head job at the Government Accountability Office.  We’ll only see action here if this district opens up really, as Platts has dug himself in, and the district is very conservative in nature.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Predicition – Solid Rep Hold

Mid-Atlantic Recap – Here in the Mid-Atlantic there are plenty of seats worth watching, it’s a fun region.  Pennsylvania in particular is quite fascinating. Right now I seat 4 seats changing hands, 2 for each party, with the Repubs picking up PA-11 and MD-1, and the Dems picking up DE-1 and PA-6.  That leaves 5 total pickups for the Reps and 2 for the Dems, for a score so far of Rep +3 through two regions.  

Next stop, the Upper South…  

 For the first time, I’m going to expand beyond my borders a bit, and over the next few diaries I’m going to run through all 435 districts of the US House of Representatives.  These predictions are going to be my baseline, or “early” predictions, I hope to go through these at least once or twice more before the end.  

Now I don’t have mathematical models or historical figures to decide my methodology, so my predictions are going to be largely based on gut feeling, based on what I know about the candidates and the districts.  To me, it’s a political “smell” test.  You may not agree with a lot of these picks, so please forgive me as this is my first shot at this.  

Today, I start with part 1, the Northeast, which consists of the New England states and New York.  I’ll hit the other regions of the country in later sections.  I’ve divided the country into 10 regions overall, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper South, South Atlantic, South Gulf, Eastern Great Lakes, Western Great Lakes, Central Plains, Intermountain, and Pacific.

Reference – I use the same rating system as Charlie Cook does.  When describing margin of victory I use Scott Eliott’s sytem of Weak for 0-5% win, Moderate for 6-10% win, Strong for 11-15% win, and Solid for 16%+.

Maine-1 – Chellie Pingree/Democrat – Most observers have this as a safe D seat, but Pingree underperformed Obama by quite a bit here.  As a House freshman, she is certainly vulnerable.  2008 candidate Charlie Summers is not committed yet, but could jump in soon.  I think this could be a Repub pickup if the environment is bad enough.  I’m very surprised that nobody is talking about this race, it’s a real sleeper.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Mod Dem hold

Maine-2 – Michael Michaud/Democrat – Michaud is pretty well entrenched in this district, and though he may not get 67% again, he’s almost certain to win.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem hold

New Hampshire-1 – Carol-Shea Porter/Democrat – Shea-Porter is a two-term incumbent that was swept in in 2006.  The race here appears to be a battle between her and Manchester mayor Frank Guinta.  So far, Shea-Porter has been a great fundraiser and has outraised Guinta 2-1, but this is bound to be a tough fight.  Shea-Porter defeated Jeb Bradley by 6% in 2008, nearly mirroring the district’s presidential vote.  Out of all the districts in New England that have an incumbent this is the toughest hold.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (1st overall)

New Hampshire-2 – Open/Democrat – This is a tough seat to call, because both the Republicans and Democrats are headed to primaries.  On the Repub side, Jennifer Horn and Charlie Bass are the favorites, while the Dem battle will likely be between Ann McLane Kuster and Katrina Swett.  A lot will depend on who emerges, but I feel the Repubs need Bass to win the primary or they have very little shot.  That and the district’s PVI leads me to believe that the Dems are in decent shape here.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Mod Dem Hold

Vermont-1 – Peter Welch/Democrat – Welch won this district unopposed in 2008, and though he’s only been around since 2006, the Repubs haven’t really bothered to contest this seat.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-1 – John Olver/Democrat – Olver carried this very blue district with almost 78% of the vote in 2008, and despite Massachusetts’ recent voting in of Scott Brown for the Senate, I don’t see much headway being made in districts like these.

District PVI – D+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-2 – Richard Neal/Democrat – Neal won this district uncontested in 2008, and so far the Repubs have only token opposition to him.  He’s also raised over 900K thus far, so I don’t see this one becoming competitive.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-3 – Jim McGovern/Democrat – McGovern won this district uncontested in 2008, and it looks as though he might again as the Repubs don’t even have a candidate as of yet.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-4 – Barney Frank/Democrat – So far, only token opposition has been put up against Frank, who I think could be in trouble if opposition does intensify because of his involvement in TARP and other prominent financial legislation.  He does have a big warchest though, and won with 68% in 2008.

District PVI – D+14

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Masschusetts-5 – Niki Tsongas/Democrat – Tsongas is an interesting case because she won uncontested in 2008, but her district went solidly for Scott Brown.  But unfortunately for the Repubs, they have only token opposition thus far, with Jonathan Golnik having been the only real fundraiser on that side thus far, at 51K.  

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-6 – John Tierney/Democrat – Tierney is a very well entrenched incumbent in his district, which consists of northeastern MA.  It’s doubtful even in this environment that he could be defeated.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-7 – Edward Markey/Democrat – Like Tierney, Markey is well entrenched in a democratic district.  It’s extremely doubtful that he will face a close race.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-8 – Michael Capuano/Democrat – Nothing to see here, Capuano is about as safe as they come.  Although, it’d be nice to have him in the Senate right now…

District PVI – D+32

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-9 – Stephen Lynch/Democrat – The big question here is will blue dog-ish rep Lynch will see a primary challenge.  So far, none has stepped up, in fact, there isn’t any Republican opposition either.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts-10 – William Delahunt/Democrat – This is probably the most vulnerable district in Massachusetts for the Dems, though it should be pointed out that Delahunt is well entrenched and didn’t even have an opponent in 2008.  Michael Jones is the only confirmed Repub thus far, and all indications are that this would be a longshot pickup attempt.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Rhode Island-1 – Patrick Kennedy/Democrat – Kennedy has been in office since 94 and is well entrenched, but has drawn a strong Repub challenged in John Laughlin, who’s raised 250K thus far for a bid.  Kennedy does have a 3-1 money advantage and a great partisan lean on his side, but if Laughlin runs a good campaign this one could get interesting.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Rhode Island-2 – James Langevin/Democrat – This is one district where the primary is going to have more life than the general in all likelihood, as Langevin is being challenged by Elizabeth Dennigan.  The big issue here is Langevin’s effectiveness.  08 Repub candidate Mark Zaccaria is running again, but he got clobbered by 40%, I can’t see him winning no matter what happens in the Dem primary.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Connecticut-1 – John Larson/Democrat – This is a very democratic district, and Larson is very much entrenched in it.  It’s hard to see this seat becoming competitive.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Connecticut-2 – Joe Courtney/Democrat – Courtney is a sophomore, and won with a huge landslide win in 2008.  He’s been fundraising as though expecting a difficult race, with 832K raised, and indeed two Repubs, Daria Novak and Matthew Daly, are vying for the Republican nomination.  Ultimately with the partisan lean and the money advantage, I don’t see Courtney getting pushed all that hard here.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Connecticut-3 – Rosa DeLauro/Democrat – DeLauro is well entrenched within the 3rd, and should win re-election fairly handily.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Connecticut-4 – Jim Himes/Democrat – When state Senate minority leader John McKinney decided against a run here, it really hurt Repub chances for a pickup.  At present, Dan Debicella is the R frontrunner, but the field is crowded.  Himes has already raised 1.7 million for his re-election, and given the district’s partisan lean, it’s hard to imagine him losing unless he makes a serious gaffe.  One wild card is that Christopher Shays hasn’t ruled out a rematch, which would make this race top tier.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Connecticut-5 – Christopher Murphy/Democrat – Murphy stormed onto the scene four years ago with his upset of Nancy Johnson, and won by 20% in 2008, solidifying his hold on the 5th.  This is about as even a district as there is in New England though, and the Repubs have two solid contenders in the Republican primary, David Caligiuri and Justin Bernier, who have each fundraised nicely so far.  With the national environment in the Repub direction, this could be a bit hairy for Murphy.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Mod Dem Hold

New York-1 – Tim Bishop/Democrat – This looks like it’s going to be one heated affair.  Tim Bishop is facing off against a strong Republican challenger, Randy Altschuler, and the two are pretty close in fundraising to this point.  The kicker though, is that George Demos is challenging Altschuler in the Republican primary, which due to the late primary date (Sept 14) could weaken the Repubs chances severely.  Still, a big race to watch.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Mod Dem Hold

New York-2 – Steve Israel/Democrat – There isn’t much in the way of opposition to Israel, Anthony Tolda is the only Repub in the race and he hasn’t raised any cash yet.  Israel has not really been tested since his initial election.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-3 – Peter King/Republican – OMG a republican seat!  First one!  Peter King won with 64% of the vote here in 2008, so he’s solidly entrenched.  Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice and County Executive Tom Suozzi are the big names in the Dem primary, but ultimately, I don’t see this seat flipping unless King decides to bail to run for higher office, which is unlikely at this point.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New York-4 – Carolyn McCarthy/Democrat – McCarthy is pretty well entrenched here in the 4th.  She does have a decent challenger in Frank Scuttaro, but she has outraised him almost 5-to-1 so far.  2010 might be a year that holds down her margins a bit, but I do like McCarthy to win fairly handily.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New York-5 – Gary Ackerman/Democrat – Nothing to really see here, as longstanding incumbent Ackerman shouldn’t have much to worry about in this fairly blue seat.  2008 Rep candidate Elizabeth Berney is the only opposition.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-6 – Gregory Meeks/Democrat – Now we start getting into the inner NYC districts, and the 6th district is the 7th most Democratic in the country.  No problem for Meeks.

District PVI – D+36

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-7 – Joseph Crowley/Democrat – Well, this district is another democratic stronghold to the nth degree.  Nothing to see here.

District PVI – D+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-8 – Jerrold Nadler/Democrat – Again, another hugely democratic NYC stronghold.  There’s really no chance of an R pickup here either.

District PVI – D+22

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-9 – Anthony Weiner/Democrat – This district is starting to trend away from Democrats at the national level, which is a bit troubling.  However, nobody has stepped up to challenge Weiner as of right now, and I think that the Repubs may be squandering an opportunity by not stepping up, as the democratic foundation of the district is crumbling.  I think the next redistricting the Dems should look to siphon some votes from the neighboring 6th and/or 10th in case Weiner leaves for any reason.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-10 – Edolphus Towns/Democrat – Another district in which the democratic strength is simply too overpowering for any republican to even think about it.  3rd most democratic in the nation.

District PVI – D+38

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-11 – Yvette Clark/Democrat – And here’s the 5th most democratic district in the country.  It’s a wonder how any Republicans ever win statewide with the ridiculous Dem strength in NYC.  Or better yet, how does NYC keep electing Republican mayors?  That, I really don’t get.

District PVI – D+38

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-12 – Nydia Velazquez/Democrat – Here’s another yawn-fest.  Velazquez is about as safe as can be in this intensely democratic, Hispanic heavy district.

District PVI – D+33

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-13 – Mike McMahon/Democrat – Now here’s a district that was incredibly interesting in 2008 and could be again in 2010.  McMahon won by 27 points in 2008 in a race that was anything but business as usual, but has drawn two decent Repub challengers, former mayoral aide Michael Allegretti and FBI agent Michael Grimm.  McMahon has already raised 1.2 million for his campaign, and with the Republican primary looking like a toss-up affair, he’s got good reason to feel good about his chances, even in a district that supported McCain over Obama by 2% in 2008.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New York-14 – Carolyn Maloney/Democrat – There won’t be much action in the general election here, but ironically for incumbent Maloney, she is being challenged in the primary by Reshma Saujani, who supposedly is fundraising very well.  Ultimately for our purposes though, even if it turns out to be a white-knuckle affair, the Dem is still going to win in November.

District PVI – D+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-15 – Charles Rangel/Democrat – The big question here is whether Rangel will decide to retire.  If not, he’s almost certain to face opposition in the Democratic primary because of his ethical troubles.  The Republicans are trying to use his problems as a proxy on the caucus as a whole, but they have no chance of mounting a challenge here, the 2nd most Dem district in the nation.

District PVI – D+41

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-16 – Jose Serrano/Democrat – Yawn.  Are we out of New York City yet?  This, by the way, is the most Democratic district in the USA, where Obama beat McCain by an eye-popping 95 to 5 count.  Well, I guess at some point I’ll have to do Texas-13 and Alabama-4 and see the shoe on the other foot.

District PVI – D+41

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-17 – Eliot Engel/Democrat – Well, we’re starting to move out of NYC proper now, but again the substance remains the same, a strong Democratic incumbent without much in the way of opposition.  Hey, if the whole country was like this it would solve a lot of our problems.

District PVI – D+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-18 – Nita Lowey/Democrat – Only one more district before we get to the good races upstate.  Here in NY-18, Lowey is pretty well entrenched, and the partisan lean makes this too much for any Republican challenger.  

District  PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-19 – John Hall/Democrat – This seat is going to be the seat of an intense fight, both in the Republican primary and in the general election.  Greg Ball, the previous Repub frontrunner has quit the race, but another strong challenger in Nan Hayworth is out there.  She’s raised nearly the same funds as Hall, and given the slight partisan lean of the 19th and the national mood, she’s got a great chance at upsetting Hall, so long as the Republicans don’t attempt to Scozzafava her.  The primary field is deep but not impressive past Hayworth.  Ball has a severe fight on his hands here despite his 17 point win in 2008.  This district did support Obama over McCain, but only by 3%.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

New York-20 – Scott Murphy/Democrat – Here’s another very hotly contested upstate seat, which is a bit of a recurring theme as you’ll see.  The good news for Murphy is, unlike Hall, he hasn’t drawn any top tier opposition.  In fact, the Repubs have virtually struck out in the recruitment here, and honestly, might be looking at a rematch from Jim Tedisco, who arguably choked away his 2009 special election race against Murphy.  It’ll still be a fight more than likely, but I like Murphy’s chances.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New York-21 – Paul Tonko/Democrat – The Albany-based 21st is one of the more Democratic portions of upstate New York.  Even though Tonko is only a freshman, I don’t think he’s in any sort of danger, as he won his initial election by 27%.  Also, it should be noted that the Repubs don’t even have a candidate yet.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-22 – Maurice Hinchey/Democrat – This district, based around Binghampton, is very Democratic in nature, and Hinchey is very much entrenched.  No reason to sweat this one.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-23 – Bill Owens/Democrat – Here’s another upstate district with a nearly even PVI, and it was the sight of perhaps the strangest house special election in decades last year.  It appeared the Republicans would win the seat with moderate R Dede Scozzafava, before her campaign was torpedoed by a rightways challenge from Doug Hoffman.  Owens won the race by 4%, and is looking to become entrenched.  Hoffman is challenging again, and incredibly, if the race tracker wiki page is right, Scozzafava might be in the mix again as well.  That could lead to bad blood in the Repub primary.  In either case, this is likely to be one of the bigger battlegrounds of the 2010 house election cycle.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

New York-24 – Michael Arcuri/Democrat – Arcuri barely survived a lackluster challenge in 2008, perhaps out of complacency, perhaps out of the independent nature of the 24th district, which is a tightly contested battleground these days.  2008 Republican candidate Richard Hanna is back for another shot, and he’s got some good name recognition from his prior run.  Arcuri just doesn’t strike me as a strong campaigner like Scott Murphy and/or Dan Maffei, who I’ll get to next.  That, along with the national environment will make things very difficult.  I have a feeling the Dems won’t be holding all the upstate districts, and outside of Massa’s which I’ll get to later, this is probably the most likely to flip.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (2nd overall)

New York-25 – Dan Maffei/Democrat – Maffei took over this Syracuse-area district in 2008 following an extremely strong run in 2006 that ended up coaxing the long running incumbent before him into retirement.  So far there are four Republicans in the race for the Republican nomination, but none are all that impressive.  Maffei has been a fundraising machine, having raised over 1.4 million thus far.  All these factors plus his strong campaigning skills adds up to a retention for Maffei methinks.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New York-26 – Christopher Lee/Republican – Wow, we finally hit the 2nd incumbent Republican in the northeast.  Lee won this seat by 14% in 2008, and has fundraised pretty well this cycle, coming in at over 800k thus far.  So far the Dems don’t have a confirmed candidate. Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul might make a run at it, and 2008 Alice Kryzan hasn’t ruled out a rematch either.  I wouldn’t say Lee is totally safe, but he’s not in bad shape.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

New York-27 – Brian Higgins/Democrat – Higgins is extremely well liked in his district, which runs from Buffalo south to Chatauqua County in the corner of the state.  Republicans aren’t exactly lining up to face him, and I don’t blame them, their task would be next to impossible seeing as the guy won re-election by nearly 50 points in a district where Obama only won by 10%.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-28 – Louise Slaughter/Democrat – In the hideous looking 28th, commonly referred to as “the earmuffs” by many, Slaughter is pretty well entrenched.  It’s a wildly democratic district anyway, taking in parts of Buffalo and Rochester.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New York-29 – Eric Massa/Democrat – The 29th district is the 2nd most republican in New York, but freshman Massa scored an upset victory in 2008 in a razor-tight 2% outcome.  This district did vote for McCain by the same amount though, and the Repubs found a strong recruit in Corning mayor Tom Reed.  His platform of economic conservatism and business friendly practices should resonate here.  Massa is wiping the floor in the fundraising battle at a 13-1 clip, but ultimately, in this environment, I don’t see that being such a big deal.  Massa has been one of the most liberal voters in the house this session, often opposing bills from the left as opposed to the right, and I just don’t think that somebody of his profile fits this district.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Mod Rep Pickup (3rd overall)

Current Northeast seat breakdown – 49 Dem, 2 Rep

Breakdown after 2010 prediction – 46 Dem, 5 Rep

Next stop, the Mid-Atlantic  

Welcome.  This is my first diary of any kind here on SSP, and it’s about a topic that’s both geographically local to me and very relevant on a national scale.  Ohio is perhaps the most pre-eminent swing state in the nation, rivaled only by states like Missouri, Florida, and Iowa.  Ohio is important because of it’s wealth of electoral votes, 7th most in the nation.  In 2002, the Republicans were in complete control of redistricting, and drew a map that they hoped would produce a 12-6 split in their favor.  Due to demographic changes, scandals, and a national wave of strength for the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, the Democrats now lead in the Ohio congressional delegation by a 10-8 margin.  I have seen many maps made for Ohio redistricting, and they all seem to be quite similar in nature, involving incumbent protection.  What I wanted to do was create a compact map, where most counties wouldn’t have to be split apart, and one that would result in lots of competitive districts.  As such, the map you’re about to see may not make sense to you, and would certainly anger people on both sides of the aisle.  I’m not sure it’s entirely realistic, but this is what I would do if I was drawing Ohio’s congressional map.  

Navy – District 1 (Cincinnati – Steve Driehaus/Democrat) – This district is now totally within Hamilton County.  It doesn’t change a whole lot, but should be friendlier to Driehaus.  It loses the Butler county portion and adds some of Cincinnati’s eastern suburbs, while keeping his base in downtown and Cincy’s west side.  His old district went 55/44 for Obama, and I have this version standing at a PVI of about D+3 or D+4.  It’s a district that the Rs could still win with the right candidate, but it Leans Democrat.

Hamilton West – Obama 180,665 (56.5%), McCain 136,054 (42.5%)

District 1 total – Obama 180,665 (57.0%), McCain 136,054 (43.0%)

Dark Green – District 2 (Southwest – John Boehner/Republican vs Jean Schmidt/Republican) – This is the first of 2 R vs R fights under this proposal, and it’s a good one.  House minority leader Boehner against dirtbag Jean Schmidt.  I have to believe that Boehner would win such a contest, thus ridding Ohio’s delegation of their arguably worst member.  Schmidt would have a better shot moving into the new 7th and challenging freshman Steve Austria.  This district would be Safe Republican.

Hamilton East – McCain 52,192, Obama 28,137

Butler – McCain 101,537 (60.9%), Obama 62,871 (37.7%)

Warren – McCain 69,741 (67.6%), Obama 32,272 (31.4%)

District 2 total – McCain 223,470 (64.4%), Obama 123,280 (35.6%)

Purple – District 3 (Dayton – Mike Turner/Republican) – Competitiveness, along with compactness, was a major goal of my redistricting map.  One person that certainly won’t like my ideas is Mike Turner.  I’ve paired Montgomery County with Clark County to create what amounts to a closely contested district in the Dayton area.  To do this I removed Republican havens Warren and Highland counties.  Turner’s fairly entrenched in the Dayton area, and has a strong base of support, so he’d be fine, but this configuration did go narrowly for Obama in 2008.  If it were to be an open seat, it’d be a Toss Up.

Preble – McCain  13,340 (64.7%), 6,846 (33.2%)

Montgomery – Obama 136,110 (51.8%), McCain 123,040 (46.8%)

Clark – McCain 31,821 (51.3%), Obama 29,122 (46.9%)

District 3 total – Obama 172,078 (50.6%), McCain 168,201 (49.4%)

Red – District 4 (West – Jim Jordan/Republican) – Jim Jordan’s district shifts south and west a bit, taking in chunks of John Boehner and Bob Latta’s old territory while giving up some land in the north central part of the state.  No big deal for Jordan though, this is a Safe Republican district.

Paulding – McCain 5,204 (54.6%), Obama 4,043 (42.4%)

Putnam – McCain 12,855 (70.1%), Obama 5,169 (28.2%)

Hancock – McCain 21,898 (61.0%), Obama 13,357 (37.2%)

Hardin – McCain 7,553 (59.3%), Obama 4,847 (38.0%)

Allen – McCain 26,167 (60.2%), Obama 16,575 (38.1%)

Van Wert – McCain 8,993 (62.7%), Obama 5,046 (35.2%)

Mercer – McCain 14,730 (71.3%), Obama 5,636 (27.3%)

Auglaize – McCain 15,938 (70.0%), Obama 6,492 (28.5%)

Darke – McCain 17,226 (68.4%), Obama 7,456 (29.6%)

Shelby – McCain 15,005 (67.7%), Obama 6,777 (30.6%)

Logan – McCain 13,440 (62.6%), Obama 7,615 (35.5%

Miami – McCain 22,217 (66.0%), Obama 10,739 (31.9%)

Champaign – McCain 10,919 (59,2%),  Obama 7,161 (38.9%)

Union – McCain 15,049 (63.2%), Obama 8,348 (35.1%)

District 4 total – McCain 191,694 (63.7%) – Obama 109,261 (36.3%)

Yellow – District 5 (North – Open) – This is one of two open districts I have created, since I have primary fights occurring in every corner of the state.  It’s a fairly compact district and one that’s fairly closely contested as well, combining Democratic strongholds in Lorain and Erie counties with Republican areas in Wyandot, Crawford, and Marion counties.  The district went for Obama in 2008 but went for Bush in 2004.  It’s a definite Toss Up, as it’s PVI is right around even.  A lot would depend on who runs here for both sides.  

Ottawa – Obama 11,760 (52.1%), McCain 10,417 (46.1%)

Sandusky – Obama 15,101 (51.0%), McCain 13,935 (47.1%)

Seneca – McCain 13,588 (50.6%), Obama 12,751 (47.5%)

Wyandot – McCain 6,190 (57.3%), Obama 4,362 (40.4%)

Marion – McCain 14,840 (53.9%), Obama 12,016 (43.7%)

Crawford – McCain 12,050 (58.4%), Obama 8,045 (39.0%)

Erie – Obama 22,277 (55.7%), McCain 17,080 (42.7%)

Huron – McCain 10,001 (50.2%), Obama 9,461 (47.5%)

Lorain – Obama 77,719 (57.5%), McCain 55,031 (40.7%)

District 5 total – Obama 173,492 (53.1%), McCain 153,132 (46.9%)

Turquoise – District 6 (Southeast – Zach Space/Democrat vs Charlie Wilson/Democrat) – Here’s the first D vs D primary fight, and it occurs between these two sophomore reps in the southeast.  I combined these two because let’s face it, there’s just not enough territory to protect every Democrat in the east even if I wanted to.  The district runs all the way from the southern tip of the state up north into Tuscarawas, Carroll, and Columbiana counties just south of Canton and Youngstown.  Years ago this was a safe D seat, but Obama’s poor performance here has left the door open for the right Republican.  This is probably the toughest seat in Ohio to rate because of it’s democratic history coupled with Obama’s very poor performance.  I give it a rating of Leans Republican, just because no Dem candidate since Clinton has carried it.

Lawrence – McCain 15,055 (56.8%), Obama 10,956 (41.3%)

Jackson – McCain 7,837 (58.9%), Obama 5,108 (38.4%)

Gallia – McCain 8,047 (62.1%), Obama 4,616 (35.6%)

Meigs – McCain 5,891 (58.2%), Obama 3,990 (39.4%)

Athens – Obama 19,258 (66.5%), McCain 9,107 (31.4%)

Washington – McCain 16,638 (56.9%), Obama 12,082 (41.3%)

Monroe – Obama 3,623 (53.2%), McCain 2,973 (43.7%)

Noble – McCain 3,387 (56.0%), Obama 2,419 (40.0%)

Guernsey – McCain 8,950 (53.2%), Obama 7,369 (43.8%)

Belmont – Obama 15,986 (50.3%), McCain 15,127 (47.6%)

Tuscarawas – Obama 20,957 (50.1%), McCain 19,940 (47.6%)

Harrison – McCain 3,717 (50.0%), Obama 3,495 (47.0%)

Carroll – McCain 6,952 (50.7%), Obama 6,302 (46.0%)

Jefferson – Obama 17,266 (49.0%), McCain 17,216 (48.9%)

Columbiana – McCain 24,891 (52.8%), Obama 21,222 (45.1%)

District 6 total – McCain 165,728 (51.1%) – Obama 158,318 (48.9%)

Gray – District 7 (South – Steve Austria/Republican) – Nobody’s going to be more thrilled about this proposal than Steve Austria.  He ends up taking in a district that encompasses much of southern Ohio, stretching from his Greene County home to the Cincinnati exurbs, then far eastward through cities like Chillicothe and Portsmouth.  It takes in a lot of Jean Schmidt’s old territory along the Ohio River.  Although some of the counties in the east part of this district are swingy in nature, Austria should have no problem in the new 7th, which I would classify as Safe Republican.

Greene – McCain 39,252 (58.4%), Obama 27,162 (40.4%)

Clinton – McCain 12,037 (64.6%), Obama 6,267 (33.6%)

Fayette – McCain 6,931 (61.3%), Obama 4,199 (37.1%)

Clermont – McCain 60,287 (65.8%), Obama 30,124 (32.9%)

Brown – McCain 11,873 (60.7%), Obama 7,280 (37.2%)

Highland – McCain 11,390 (62.5%), Obama 6,437 (35.3%)

Adams – McCain 6,725 (60.8%), Obama 4,041 (36.5%)

Ross – McCain 16,027 (53.0%), Obama 13,636 (45.1%)

Pike – McCain 6,005 (49.5%), Obama 5,833 (48.1%)

Scioto – McCain 16,472 (52.2%), Obama 14,470 (45.8%)

Vinton – McCain 2,962 (53.6%), Obama 2,405 (43.5%)

District 7 – McCain 189,961 (60.9%) – Obama 121,854 (39.1%)

Lavender – District 8 (Northeast/Central – Patrick Tiberi/Republican) – Patrick Tiberi gets a nice break here, as his district moves entirely out of Franklin county, and picks up a new region in the northeastern-central part of the state.  This district runs from his Delaware County base to Zanesville in the east, up north to Mansfield.  I classify this is as a Safe Republican District.

Delaware – McCain 53,670 (59.3%), Obama 35,848 (39.6%)

Morrow – McCain 9,787 (60.7%), Obama 5,960 (37.0%)

Richland – McCain 32,590 (55.8%), Obama 24,473 (41.9%)

Knox – McCain 16,207 (59.0%), Obama 10,702 (39.0%)

Licking – McCain 30,545 (59.6%), Obama 19,768 (38.6%)

Holmes – McCain 7,590 (69.6%), Obama 3,074 (28.2%)

Coshocton – McCain 8,583 (51.5%), Obama 7,580 (45.5%)

Muskingum – McCain 20,174 (52.9%), Obama 17,209 (45.1%)

Morgan – McCain 3,387 (52.1%), Obama 2,921 (44.9%)

District 8 total – McCain 182,533 (58.8%) – Obama 127,535 (41.2%)

Teal – District 9 (Northwest/Toledo – Marcy Kaptur/Democrat vs Bob Latta/Republican) – I’m extremely proud of this district, which covers the northwestern corner of the state.  It also produces our first D vs R battle royal.  Luckily for Democrats, it shouldn’t even be a contest, as Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, Ohio’s longest running representative, takes on Bob Latta, a redshirt freshman out of Bowling Green.  Latta’s a lying scumbag, which is why I wanted to take him out.  In this map, he doesn’t even really have a base to counter Kaptur, considering that his home Wood County went 53/46 for Obama in 2008, and even the rural counties out west of Toledo took hard swings to the left.  In an open seat, I’d call this district Likely Democrat, which in this battle means that Kaptur will probably cruise.  I suppose Latta could move into the neighboring 5th, but that district would still be a much tougher win than his current district.

Williams – McCain 9,618 (53.9%), Obama 7,892 (44.2%)

Defiance – McCain 9,334 (54.7%), Obama 7,394 (43.3%)

Henry – McCain 8,091 (55.7%), Obama 6,163 (42.4%)

Fulton – McCain 11,414 (53.3%), Obama 9,627 (45.0%)

Wood – Obama 32,956 (52.5%), McCain 28,819 (45.9%)

Lucas – Obama 134,729 (64.5%), McCain 70,865 (34.0%)

9th District Total – Obama 198,761 (59.0%), McCain 138,141 (41.0%)

Pink – District 10 (Cleveland West – Dennis Kucinich/Democrat) – Another member of Ohio’s delegation I dislike is Dennis Kucinich.  I didn’t go all out to take him out, which would have been impossible anyway seeing as he’s from Cuyahoga County, but in the name of competition and fairness to the Repubs I did weaken his district significantly as it now includes R-leaning Medina County.  This seat still Leans Democrat, but it would certainly make Dennis the Menace sweat things out a bit more, and in an open seat situation, it’s not out of the question that the Republicans could win it with the right candidate.

Cuyahoga West – Obama 177,318 (56.8%), McCain 124,135 (42.7%)

Medina North – McCain 25,460 (55.9%), Obama 19,037 (41.8%)

District 10 Total – Obama 196,355 (56.7%) – McCain 149,595 (43.3%)

Light Green – District 11 (Cleveland East – Marcia Fudge/Democrat) – Still a plurality black district in Eastern Cuyahoga County and little changed, Fudge would have no problem in this Safe Democrat seat.  I didn’t bother to make it over 50% black as that would require some serious gerrymandering, probably down into Akron.

Cuyahoga East – Obama 264,518 (78.0%), McCain 72,234 (21.3%)

District 11 Total – Obama 264,518 (78.4%), McCain 72,234 (21.6%)

Light Blue – District 12 (Columbus East – Open) – I don’t think it’s asking much to get 2 Dem representatives out of the Columbus area, and since the Republicans are so hell bent on splitting Columbus apart, here’s your 2nd new district in the state.  It’s composed of the Eastern half of Franklin County and extends into Hocking and Perry Counties, which are swingish.  Despite the presence of R-leaning Fairfield County, I think that the Democrats would have the advantage here, as it went narrowly for Kerry in 2004 and went big for Obama in 2008 as the entire Columbus area took a hard swing to the left.  I rate this as Leans Democrat.

Perry – McCain 7,585 (50.1%), Obama 7,128 (47.1%)

Hocking – McCain 6,201 (49.2%), Obama 6,083 (49.2%)

Fairfield – McCain 40,708 (57.9%), Obama 28,487 (40.5%)

Franklin East – Obama 137,360 (60.0%), McCain 88,029 (38.4%)

District 12 Total – Obama 179,058 (55.7%) – McCain 142,523 (44.3%)

Peach – District 13 (Akron – Betty Sutton/Democrat) – One of the oddities of this map is that Betty Sutton, my representative, wouldn’t be my rep anymore, it’d be Kucinich.  Ugg.  I guess I’m just taking one for the team.  Anyway, Sutton’s district is now centered around Akron and contains all of Summit and Portage Counties.  With her popularity and the district’s partisan leanings, she’ll have no problem.  In an open seat situation, it’d probably rate as Likely Democrat.  Not having to slice up Akron three ways and giving it a district of its own was one of my goals, and this district accomplishes that.

Medina South – McCain 6,325 (52.3%), Obama – 5,577 (46.1%)

Summit – Obama 151,932 (57.7%), McCain 107,937 (41.0%)

Portage – Obama 32,160 (53.3%), McCain 26,959 (44.7%)

District 13 total – Obama 189,669 (57.3%) – McCain 141,221 (42.7%)

Brown – District 14 (Northeast – Steven LaTourette/Republican vs Tim Ryan/Democrat) – And now we come to the battle of the titans, Latourette vs Ryan in Ohio’s northeastern corner.  This district stretches from Lake and R-leaning Geauga counties on Cleveland’s east side over to Youngstown and D-leaning Trumbull county along the Pennsylvania border.  When the PVI comes out, it’s probably Democratic by a point or two, but its close enough that I consider it to be a Toss Up in an open seat situation, or in this case, a contraction battle for the ages.

Lake – Obama 54,786 (49.3%), McCain 54,441 (49.0%)

Geauga – McCain 28,314 (56.9%), Obama 20,692 (41.6%)

Ashtabula – Obama 24,233 (54.2%), McCain 18,464 (41.3%)

Trumbull – Obama 62,254 (59.8%), McCain 39,319 (37.8%)

Mahoning North – Obama 24,960 (66.4%), McCain 12,056 (32.2%)

District 14 total – Obama 186,925 (55.0%), McCain 152,594 (45.0%)

Orange – District 15 (Columbus West – Mary Jo Kilroy/Democrat) – This district is little changed, and includes the western half of Franklin County along with Madison and Pickaway counties, losing Union to Jim Jordan’s 4th.  I rate the district as Leans Democrat, just like the neighboring 12th.  I think Kilroy should still be fine with the way Columbus is rapidly turning blue, but in an open seat, like so many other D-leaning seats I’ve created, the R’s would have a good shot at a pickup.  

Madison – McCain 10,178 (61.0%), Obama 6,193 (37.1%)

Pickaway – McCain 13,087 (60.3%), Obama 8,229 (37.9%)

Franklin West – Obama 167,784 (58.1%), McCain 117,309 (40.6%)

District 15 Total – Obama 182,206 (56.4%) – McCain 140,574 (43.6%)

Green – District 16 (East Central – John Boccieri/Democrat) – John Boccieri should be a happy man as well.  His district doesn’t change a lot, but it does lose Medina County and instead adds in most of Youngstown’s Mahoning County suburbs, which lean heavily D.  In an open seat situation, this is definitely a Toss Up, but a strengthened Boccieri would have no problem securing re-election in this Canton-based district.

Mahoning South – Obama 51,396 (59.6%), McCain 33,283 (38.6%)

Stark – Obama 66,712 (50.2%), McCain 63,283 (47.6%)

Wayne – McCain 28,730 (56.4%), Obama 21,144 (41.5%)

Ashland – McCain 14,788 (60.3%), Obama 9,027 (36.8%)

District 16 Total – Obama 161,626 (53.5%) – McCain 140,084 (46.5%)

So to recap, if all 16 seats were open in a given election, here’s the ratings:

Solid R – 4 seats (2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th)

Likely R – 0 seats

Lean R – 1 seat (6th)

Toss Up – 4 seats (3rd, 5th, 14th, 16th)

Lean D – 4 seats (1st, 10th, 12th, 15th)

Likely D – 2 seats (9th, 13th)

Solid D – 1 seat (11th)

And there you have it.  Comments, reactions, complaints?

Edit:  I’m planning on doing maps for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate as well.