Hello, and welcome to the 10th and final installment of my 2010 baseline predictions for the House of Representatives. In this section I will cover the Pacific Coast. This region officially contains Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii, but for division purposes I slid Washington and Oregon over to the Rocky Mountain region, leaving only Hawaii and California. This is arguably the most liberal region of the United States, outside of maybe the Northeast region. At present, Democrats hold 36 of 55 seats in the region, the Republicans have 19. Because of high Obama approval ratings and a leftward shift in general, this might be an area where the Dems could hold even in 2010 and maybe even gain seats.
First off, a recap of where we’ve been, and where we still have to go*:
Northeast – Rep +3 – (Rep pickups of NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)
Mid-Atlantic – Even – (Rep pickups of PA-11, MD-1, Dem pickups of PA-6, DE-1)
Upper South – Rep +5 (Rep pickups of VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)
South Atlantic – Even – (no pickups on either side)
Eastern Great Lakes – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of OH-1, MI-7, IN-8)
South Gulf – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of AL-2, MS-1, LA-3, TX-17, Dem pickup of LA-2)
Western Great Lakes – Dem +1 (Dem pickup of IL-10)
Central Plains – Rep +4 (Rep pickups of IA-3, AR-1, AR-2, KS-3)
Rocky Mountains – Rep +4 (Rep pickups of CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3)
Pacific Coast –
Total National Score – Rep +21
* – Please note that in most cases these ratings were done prior to any polling becoming known.
Do note that, despite what said in the beginning, this actually will not be the last diary in the series. Following this diary, I’ll be going back over the whole list and seeing if, in lue of polls and other data from the last month, if I want to change any of my picks. At that point I’ll post Part 11, in which I lock in my selections and I’ll show the entire list of races “on the board”, ie: those races between Likely D and Likely R. All races will be re-visited as we head toward November.
California-1 – Mike Thompson/Democrat – Here’s a district that covers most of the northern California coastline north of the Bay Area. It’s an easy winner for Thompson, who is entrenched.
District PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-2 – Wally Herger/Republican – Herger actually got a moderately tough re-election in 2008, winning by a margin mirroring the presidential vote in this northern CA district. That being said, this year’s race isn’t expected to be close at all.
District PVI – R+11
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-3 – Dan Lungren/Republican – Enjoy this one, folks, because this is bound to be a tough fight. Lungren entered office in 2004 when this suburban Sacramento district was arguably much more conservative. It’s taken a shift to the left, as evidenced by Barack Obama’s 49-48 plurality win over John McCain, and Lungren only survived against an underfunded Dem challenger 49-44. This time he’s up against much tougher opposition. Physician Ami Bera has launched a challenge and has cleared the democratic primary field. And so far, Bera is leading Lungren in the fundraising race, 871k to 732k, and also leads in cash on hand by a slightly larger margin. It’s uncertain just how good a campaigner Bera is, but if he is, Lungren will have to face that and an environment in California that has arguably bucked the national trend and stayed blue. I haven’t done this much in this series, but I’m picking a minor upset here, Bera defeats Lungren, making him only the 3rd Rep incumbent to go down this cycle (Jim Gerlach in PA-6 and Anh Cao in LA-2 were the others)
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (5th overall)
National Score – Rep +20
California-4 – Tom McClintock/Republican – Surprisingly, this northeast California district was the site of one of the closest House races in the nation in 2008, as Air Force pilot Charlie Brown came within several hundred votes of beating McClintock. It appears the democrats have pretty much ceded this race in 2010, the only confirmed candidate is Clint Curtis, who formerly lived in FL-24 and ran in the 06 primary there. It is worth noting that McClintock is facing a primary challenge from medical firm executive Michael Babich. If somehow Babich pulls that out the race could still get interesting, but I doubt that happens.
District PVI – R+10
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-5 – Doris Matsui/Democrat – The Sacramento-based 5th is a liberal bastion, as is much of northern California. Matsui is safe. (Hint hint, lots of one sentence reviews ahead)
District PVI – D+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-6 – Lynn Woolsey/Democrat – This coastal district lies to the north of the bay, and is extremely democratic. Safe.
District PVI – D+23
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-7 – George Miller/Democrat – The 7th consists of much of the northeastern Bay Area. It’s more democratic territory, and safe for Miller.
District PVI – D+19
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-8 – Nancy Pelosi/Democrat – Central San Francisco is home to Pelosi, the Speaker of the House. It’s funny reading on certain blogs, the people that say random stuff like “Pelosi needs to start worrying about HER re-election.” If they were talking about a primary challenge then maybe, but the idea of this seat ever going republican is just pure idiocy.
District PVI – D+35
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-9 – Barbara Lee/Democrat – This district consists mostly of Central Oakland, and is the most democratic district in California, and the 6th most democratic in the nation. Safe.
District PVI – D+37
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-10 – John Garamendi/Democrat – Garamendi actually had a crappy election in the 2009 special election here, winning by an underwhelming 55-43 against David Harmer. I don’t imagine it’s because of weakness on Garamendi’s part, as it could be the fault of the democratic electorate instead. Luckily, the republicans don’t have a confirmed candidate for November yet.
District PVI – D+11
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-11 – Jerry McNerney/Democrat – The 11th used to be a republican district, but times are a changing here. McNerney won this seat in 2006 over disgraced ex-Rep Richard Pombo, and held it by 10 points in 2008, mirroring Obama’s 9-point win. McNerney has fundraised fairly well this cycle, pulling in 1.05 million to this point. More good news for McNerney is that the republican primary looks crowded and tough. U.S Marshal Tony Amador, vineyard owner Brad Goehring, non-profit org vice president Elizabeth Emken, and former 10th district nominee David Harmer are all alive in the race for the nomination. Goehring has the fundraising lead, Harmer has the lead in name ID. It’s hard to say what’s going to transpire here, but McNerney has set himself up fairly well I think.
District PVI – R+1
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold
California-12 – Jacqueline Speier/Democrat – The 12th stretches from south San Francisco to San Jose, and like much of the region, is very democratic. Safe.
District PVI – D+23
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-13 – Pete Stark/Democrat – This district on the east said of the bay is again, very liberal and very democratic. Stark is safe.
District PVI – D+22
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-14 – Anna Eshoo/Democrat – Moving to the south of the Bay Area proper now, but nothing’s changed yet, still very democratic territory and safe.
District PVI – D+21
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-15 – Mike Honda/Democrat – This somewhat gerrymandered district runs from San Jose down through Santa Clara. It’s less democratic than the central Bay Area districts are, but we’re still a ways away from republicans competing still.
District PVI – D+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-16 – Zoey Lofgren/Democrat – This district lies to the east of CA-15, and is the last Bay Area district, lying mostly in Santa Clara county. It’s another easy win for the democrats and for Lofgren.
District PVI – D+16
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-17 – Sam Farr/Democrat – This district takes in much of the central California coast, stretching from Monterey Bay southward. It, like most coastal California districts, is solidly democratic.
District PVI – D+19
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-18 – Dennis Cardoza/Democrat – We now move toward the Central Valley, which is largely split apart between the democratic west and republican east. This district, which lies on the east side of the imaginary line and contains Stockton and parts of Modesto, leans democratic but not overly. Cardoza went unopposed in 2008, and so far only one republican, Mike Berryhill, has stepped up to challenge him. Berryhill is well behind in the fundraising chase, and I don’t have much data on him. Cook has this race at likely, but I don’t buy it.
District PVI – D+4
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-19 – Open/Republican – On the other side of the barrier lies the 19th, which takes in parts of Modesto and Fresno as well as rural areas. As with most open seats, the primary field on both sides is cloudy. State senator Jeff Denham is Radanovich’s preferred choice, but ex-Rep Richard Pombo is also in the race, along with former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, who has the backing of SSP favorite, the Club for Growth. On the democratic side, Mariposa County planning commission member Les Marsden is running, as is state representative Lorraine Goodwin. I don’t have any fundraising data thus far, but the republicans clearly have a deeper bench here. The wild card is Pombo. If he wins the primary I think the Dems have a shot at a pickup because of his ethical problems. Any other permutation and Team Red probably wins easily, so my rating will reflect these possibilities.
District PVI – R+9
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
California-20 – Jim Costa/Democrat – This district is back on the west side of the Central Valley boundary, taking in the west part of Fresno county and the most democratic parts of Kern county, including most of Bakersfield. Costa is very popular here and won re-election by nearly 50 points in 2008. Only one challenger, Andy Vidak, is going at this race for Team Red, he’s raised less than 60k thus far. And yet, Cook again has this one at likely instead of solid. I don’t know what he’s looking at. CQ and the others all have it solid as far as I know.
District PVI – D+5
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-21 – Devin Nunes/Republican – On the east side of the boundary again, the 21st is heavily republican, and should be no problem for Nunes to hold onto.
District PVI – R+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-22 – Kevin McCarthy/Republican – This mostly rural district is the most republican in California, an easy hold for McCarthy.
District PVI – R+16
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-23 – Lois Capps/Democrat – The ridiculously shaped 23rd, which is almost literally the grains of sand running along the coast of south central California, is I guess democratic. (Can fish vote?)
District PVI – D+12
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-24 – Elton Gallegly/Republican – This district essentially takes in the same generally area as the 23rd except it starts on the hills overlooking the beach and moves inland. It’s a marginally republican district that was carried by Obama in 2008 50-47. That being said, a strong democratic challenge to Gallegly isn’t very likely.
District PVI – R+4
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-25 – Buck McKeon/Republican – In the 2008 presidential race, this district was one of the biggest shockers in the nation, as Obama won a 49-48 plurality over McCain in this republican stronghold. McKeon held on to beat Jackie Conaway by a 57-42 mark despite the top ballot surge, but it was his lowest re-election total since his initial election in 1992. I think this district bears some watching because Conaway is running again, and McKeon hasn’t declared for re-election yet and doesn’t have much cash on hand either, so it’s possible that he might have retirement on the brain. If that happens, this could turn into a pickup opportunity, so I’ll keep it on the board just in case.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-26 – David Dreier/Republican – Starting to move toward the LA area now, the 26th contains affluent suburbs like Arcadia and Rancho Cucamonga. Obama won this usually republican district by a 51-47 count, but like many republican incumbents, Dreier still managed a 12% win over Russ Warner. Still, like McKeon in CA-25, that was a very low total compared to normal. Warner is back for another run, but he’s facing a tough, entrenched incumbent who is the ranking Republican on the powerful House Rules Committee. I don’t like his odds of success.
District PVI – R+3
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-27 – Brad Sherman/Democrat – The Burbank-based 27th is fairly democratic, so I don’t think Sherman has too much to worry about.
District PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-28 – Howard Berman/Democrat – We’re moving closer to central LA now, hitting it’s northwestern suburbs like San Fernando. Berman is safe.
District PVI – D+23
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-29 – Adam Schiff/Democrat – The Pasadena-based 29th isn’t quite as democratic as the 28th, but it’s still on the fringes of what the republicans could pick up even if the sky was falling for Team Blue. Schiff is safe.
District PVI – D+14
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-30 – Henry Waxman/Democrat – One of the most powerful Dems in the House, Waxman’s district takes in Santa Monica and parts of west LA county. It’s safe territory.
District PVI – D+18
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-31 – Xavier Becerra/Democrat – We’re now in the metropolitan core of Los Angeles, this district stretching from downtown to the north side. Safe.
District PVI – D+29
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-32 – Judy Chu/Democrat – This district covers LA’s eastern inner suburbs mostly, and Chu won a 2009 special election for this seat by a wide margin. She’s safe.
District PVI – D+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-33 – Open/Democrat – This western LA seat, which houses Culver City and most of Hollywood’s famous studios and stuff, is open as Diane Watson is retiring. Doesn’t really matter though, as this is the 11th most democratic district in the US.
District PVI – D+35
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-34 – Lucille Royal-Allard/Democrat – This district comprises most of East LA, and is very heavily democratic not unlike the rest of the region. Safe.
District PVI – D+22
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-35 – Maxine Waters/Democrat – South-central LA is where we find ourselves now, and like so many other LA districts, this one’s a cinch for Team Blue
District PVI – D+31
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-36 – Jane Harman/Democrat – Down into the shores south of LA, Redondo Beach-ish area, is where we find the seat of disgraced Rep Jane Harman. In the wake of her flap with the FBI over trying to secure a chairmanship through very unethical means, teacher Marcy Winograd is attempting to primary Harman, and it’s looking like it could be an interesting race. The republicans have two candidates here, financial advisor Peter Kesterson and Mattie Fien, founder of the Institute for Persian Studies. My guess is if Harman survives the primary there’s a chance that Team Red could score an upset here.
District PVI – D+12
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-37 – Laura Richardson/Democrat – This district runs the whole economic continuum, stretching from the depths of Compton to more affluent suburbs. It’s also safe democratic territory for Richardson and Team Blue.
District PVI – D+26
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-38 – Grace Napolitano/Democrat – Two more districts to go in the eastern LA suburbs for Team Blue, this one the first. Safe.
District PVI – D+18
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-39 – Linda Sanchez/Democrat – Another safe democratic district on the east and southeast side of LA.
District PVI – D+12
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-40 – Ed Royce/Republican – Moving into Orange County now, Royce’s district is usually very republican but Obama put up a strong showing, only falling by 4% to McCain. But the well entrenched Royce won re-election easily by 25% over Christine Avalos. I don’t really see this one becoming competitive.
District PVI – R+8
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-41 – Jerry Lewis/Republican – This district contains most of San Bernardino County outside of the metroplex, and should be an easy hold for Lewis.
District PVI – R+10
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-42 – Gary Miller/Republican – This district is a suburban/exurban mix and contains some of the most conservative parts of the LA metro area. Safe.
District PVI – R+10
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-43 – Joe Baca/Democrat – The San-Bernardino-based 43rd is a strong democratic bastion, much stronger than many realize. Baca’s sitting pretty.
District PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-44 – Ken Calvert/Republican – Well, here’s what, on paper, could probably have been the democrats’ best shot at a pickup in California this cycle. Ken Calvert, an embattled incumbent who has struggled with ethical problems, barely survived 51-49 against democrat Bill Hedrick in 2008, while Obama won 50-49 in a close vote against McCain. Calvert is facing a primary challenge from commercial real estate broker Chris Riggs, which doesn’t look overly problematic but it’s possible the district’s GOP voters might want an untainted candidate. Hedrick, whose race wasn’t on the radar last cycle, certainly is now, but something isn’t right. His fundraising has been downright horrible thus far at 179k, compared to 869k for Calvert. That’s a huge advantage, and that combined with incumbency is going to make things very difficult on Hedrick assuming the GOP primary doesn’t get ugly.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
California-45 – Mary Bono Mack/Republican – Bono Mack has taken a lot of hits from within her own party because of her voting record, most notably on her vote for cap-n-trade. However, after several lawmakers threatened to primary her, Bono Mack is good to go for the general. Despite Obama’s 52-47 win here last cycle, she still cruised to re-election by 17% against state representative Julie Bornstein. The democrats have a very strong recruit in this district, Palm Springs mayor Stephen Pougnet, which could make this district interesting. Bono Mack is currently leading the fundraising chase 992k to 553k, though the cash on hand race is closer. All in all, Pougnet’s total is still pretty good. I could see this race flipping if enough Republicans refuse to vote on this race because of Bono Mack’s lack of conservatism, but ultimately I think she’s going to win.
District PVI – R+3
Stephen’s Rating – Leans R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
California-46 – Dana Rohrabacher/Republican – Rohrabacher had a more difficult re-election than usual in 2008, winning by only 9% over democrat Debbie Cook. His re-election looks like it will be much easier this time as Team Blue isn’t putting up much of a fight here.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-47 – Loretta Sanchez/Democrat – Sanchez is a fairly well entrenched incumbent, and while this district isn’t incredibly democratic, it did go for Barack Obama by 23% in 2008, and she cruised to re-election by over 40 points. Given that, you wouldn’t expect a strong republican challenger to emerge, much less two, but that’s what we had as Van Tran and Quag Pham were headed for a primary battle until Pham bolted last week. Tran is fundraising fairly well, but trails in the money race 719k to 448k. Honestly, even if the red wave is big, it would be very hard to see Sanchez, who’s mostly beloved in her district, go down.
District PVI – D+4
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-48 – John Campbell/Republican – This district was another shocker in the presidential race of 08, as Obama fought to a 49-48 plurality win over McCain after Bush walloped Kerry by 20 four years earlier. Campbell beat back his democratic challenger by 15% that same year, but this year the democrats found a strong challenger in Irvine city councilwoman Beth Krom. Krom has been heralded as a solid campaigner, and she’ll need to be since the district at best leans republican and she’s losing to Campbell 949k to 299k in the money race, putting her in a similar position to Bill Hedrick in neighboring CA-44. Thus, I give this race a similar rating.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
California-49 – Darrell Issa/Republican – We’re getting close folks, into the northern San Diego exurbs now. Issa is safe here.
District PVI – R+10
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-50 – Brian Bilbray/Republican – Bilbray has had a rough go of it in recent elections since his 05 special election win, he hasn’t been elected with a double digit vote total yet, winning the special by 5, his 06 re-election by 9, and his 08 re-election by 5. The good news for Bilbray is that Team Blue’s top candidate, Dave Roberts, dropped out late last year. Francine Busby, who nearly won the seat back in 2005 but later struggled in 2006, is back for another run at the seat, though she’ll have to go up against attorney Tracy Emblem in the democratic primary. Either way, Bilbray is looking pretty good, especially since he’s got a nice lead, 606k to 288k, over Busby in the money race. Bilbray, much like republicans like Leonard Lance, Jerry Moran, and Dave Reichert, has gone out of their way to stress their moderate nature, so that may help him.
District PVI – R+3
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
California-51 – Bob Filner/Democrat – This district, which consists of San Diego’s south and east suburbs as well as Imperial county, is fairly democratic. I don’t see the entrenched Filner having much of a problem here.
District PVI – D+8
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
California-52 – Duncan Hunter/Republican – This district is comprised of the most republican parts of San Diego County, mostly rich suburbs. This should be a cinch for Hunter.
District PVI – R+9
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
California-53 – Susan Davis/Democrat – This final district is comprised of downtown San Diego. It’s a liberal bastion and an easy win for Davis and Team Blue.
District PVI – D+14
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Hawaii-1 – Open/Democrat – We started this journey way up in the far northeast of Maine, and we finish it in the tropical Pacific islands of Hawaii. Interestingly enough, we have an open seat race that because of the format of the race, could turn out to be crazy. My projections are for November, but next month, a special election to replace Neil Abercrombie will take place. It essentially amounts to a three-way R/D/I race between Honolulu city councilman Charles Djou, state senate majority leader Colleen Hanabusa, and former US Rep Ed Case. The polls have shown this contest to be a close contest on all sides, and it’s a tough call. But since this is a November prediction, I have to look ahead, and based on their political positions, you’d have to believe that, unless Case wins the special election, Hanabusa would destroy him in the democratic primary, resulting in a Hanabusa v Djou rematch in November. If Case wins next month he might survive to face Djou instead, although it would probably be tight. If that matchup comes to pass, I could see enough disenchanted democrats voting for Djou just because of how much Case is hated among the base, but if Hanabusa gets through either the special or the September primary, she’s going to win in November. The only question is how to rate this race.
District PVI – D+11
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
Hawaii-2 – Mazie Hirono/Democrat – The final district in the US, and it’s a snoozer, as Hirono will have no trouble retaining.
District PVI – D+14
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Region recap: Well, after all that, I have only one seat changing hands, a democratic pickup in CA-3, giving the Democrats a +1 in the Pacific Coast, and their 2nd region of positive gain along with the Western Great Lakes. The final score thus comes out unofficially at Republican +20. In my final post, I will make the total official and if any changes in the total score occur I will highlight them. You’ll also see my full national board, with all races that are likely, lean, and toss up paired alongside one another.
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