Author: StephenCLE

Another month, another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  

Last month, back on July 11th, I said that we were at a crossroads regarding the battle for the House, where the Republicans were one major problem/mistake by the Democrats away from surging toward re-taking the chamber.  Well, since then, it’s been one success after another for Team Blue, as the gulf oil spill has been plugged, financial reform was passed, unemployment benefits were extended, and the timeline for the Iraq pullout appears to be on schedule.  These might not necessarily be big items for independents but most of these will no doubt help base turnout in November.  Not only that, but Team Red has really hurt themselves with poor primary choices and candidate gaffes in recent weeks, especially in Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois (which will also be reflected in my Senate ratings to come later this week).  Bottom line, for the first month since I started this series, the red tide has ebbed, and Team Blue has gained back territory.

Beginning this month, I will be updating my House ratings twice a month.  I’ll keep that schedule probably until the end of the primary season, in which case it will move to once a week.    

Total House Math for August 2nd:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 233 Democrats, 202 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +23

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (27) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, FL-2, IL-11, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-11, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – IL-11

Republican to Democrat – CO-4, WV-1, NH-1, NV-3

August Race Ratings Changes –

1.Illinois-17 – Solid D to Likely D – A shocking internal poll from last week gives the little known Republican challenger, Bobby Schilling, a lead against longtime incumbent Phil Hare.  Schilling hasn’t raised much this cycle and has kept a low profile, so I doubt the poll is correct, but in either case, this is enough to at least put the race on the board, especially because coattails in Illinois will definitely be breaking in the Republicans’ favor

2.Colorado-3 – Lean D to Likely D – With the GOP ticket imploding in Colorado, it’s very unlikely that they’ll be able to take out Salazar

3.Virginia-9 – Lean D to Likely D – Some recent polling here has shown Boucher with a double digit lead over his opponent, so that’s good enough for me to put this one to Likely.

4.Indiana-9 – Toss Up to Lean D – Much like the previous, Baron Hill has seen some positive polling in his race, so I think he deserves a more favorable rating as well.

5.Colorado-4 – Toss Up to Lean D – She may not be as lucky as John Hickenlooper, but the implosion of the GOP ticket in Colorado looks like it could really help Betsy Markey.  Tom Tancredo’s appearance on the ballot could give some people here Marilyn Musgrave redux jitters.

6.Iowa-3 – Toss Up to Lean D – I didn’t want to move this initially, as I’m still really worried about bad coattails in Iowa and Boswell’s relative weakness as a rep, but Brad Zaun has shot himself in the foot several times now with regard to farm subsidies and flood relief. (Really?)  Boswell has to be favored now.

7.Massachusetts-10 – Toss Up to Lean D – Pretty much all the pundits are taking this one out of the toss-up category.  I’m not really sure why, but I’ll be a follower on this one.

8.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up to Lean D – Man, total egg on face.  Can you believe it, following the primary I had this one at Likely R.  Now with Joe Manchin topping the ballot, so long as Oliverio doesn’t totally piss off the base with his anti-Pelosi, democrat-hating rhetoric, he’s in decent shape.

9.Alaska-1 – Likely R to Solid R – With Lisa Murkowski and Sean Parnell looking to clean up in the great white north, Don Young would need a major scandal to burst over his head to lose this year.  Safe.

10.California-19 – Likely R to Solid R – Surprisingly, I haven’t seen any action on the D side in this open seat race, so I take it off the board as well.

11.Ohio-15 – Lean R to Toss Up – With generally positive polling for both Lee Fisher and Ted Strickland recently (except for Scotty Rass of course) the situation here is looking better for Mary Kilroy.  She’s still locked in a very difficult fight though.

12.Illinois-11 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Toss Up/Rep Pickup – Sometimes coattails can be a bitch, but in this case, Adam Kinzinger is really doing some good things in fundraising and on the campaign trail too.  Debbie Halvorson is in for a real fight here.

13.New Hampshire-1 – Toss Up/Rep Pickup to Toss Up/Dem Retention – Just when I thought New Hampshire was jumping off the deep end toward the GOP, polling comes out giving Carol Shea-Porter a lead, plus she actually cracked 200k in fundraising last quarter!  Strong moves, and that makes me change this race out of the red column.

14.Nevada-3 – Toss Up/Rep Pickup to Toss Up/Dem Retention – Dina Titus is looking better now than she did a month ago as well, as not only does polling show her with a slight edge, but also the vast improvement of Harry Reid’s election chances and Brian Sandoval’s recent gaffes have the democratic side looking much better throughout Nevada.  I balked to move it to Lean though, because of Titus’s weakness as a representative.

15.Florida-12 – Likely R to Lean R – As unlikely as this race seems given the PVI and the fundraising race, Lori Edwards supposedly is tied or leading in several polls here.  I would think that after the primary that whoever the R candidate is would be able to consolidate support, but you never know.  As weird a cycle as this looks to be in Florida, I don’t think we can assume anything.

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 162 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 34 seats:

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 25 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 28 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 19 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 12 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-2 (Jenkins)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

I released my new House numbers at the beginning of the week, and now here are my newly updated Senate predictions.  

I gotta say, this is a case of how big a week is in politics.  At the beginning of this week I was feeling dumpy, and the speculation with Robert Gibbs’ comments and Nancy Pelosi’s rebuttal were driving the narrative.  But in one fell swoop, actually within 24 hours, the oil spill stopped gushing, the democrats passed the biggest overhaul of financial reform since the Great Depression, and new jobless claims dropped by nearly 30,000.  Unbelievable.  Those news headlines, coupled with some recent polling, have caused me to have a much rosier outlook on the Senate than I did a month ago.  It’s not rosy everywhere though, as several races moved the opposite way as well.

Senate Math: (counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats)

Old – 59 Democrat, 41 Republican

New – 56 Democrat, 43 Republican, 1 Independent

Republican Pickups (5) – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Colorado, Delaware

Democratic Pickups (2) – Ohio, Missouri

Independent Pickups (1) – Florida

Race Ratings Changes:

1.Wisconsin – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – With more and more polling, some of it non-Rassmussen, showing Rich Some Dude Ron Johnson running close to Russ Feingold, I’m starting to worry that some kind of elephant virus has infiltrated the Badger State.  In any case, Feingold has had to work hard for re-elections before, and it appears he may have to do so again.

2.Pennsylvania – Lean Dem to Toss Up – I still think that, in the end, Sestak is going to pull away from Toomey once the Pa electorate finds out that he’s really just another Rick Santorum, but for now, Toomey is doing a decent job and the people of the Keystone State seem to have real troubles with the democratic brand.  So for those reasons, this is now a toss-up race.

3.Nevada – Toss Up to Lean Dem (moves from Rep pickup to Dem retention) – Well, the republicans really screwed the pooch here.  Sharron Angle has been a human gaffe machine from the minute she started this campaign, and it’s not surprising to see Reid jumping out to a lead in most polls now.  He’s definitely got the momentum right now.

4.Illinois – Toss Up (moves from Rep pickup to Dem retention) – Talk about a race in which there isn’t much to go on.  Both candidates suck, ones a liar, the other a former banker who saw his family’s bank fail. I can’t figure either is popular in this day and age, and this race is probably going to go down to the wire, but Illinois’s partisan lean is starting to show through a bit.

5.Florida – Toss Up to Lean Ind – With everybody outside of Rassmussen showing Charlie Crist leading by a high single digit margin, it looks like Florida is headed toward electing an independent senator.  That’s not to say that Marco Rubio is out of the race, but it’s not looking as good for him as it was several months ago.  

Notes on the Other Toss-up Seats:

6.Colorado – Ken Buck and Jane Norton were dealt a bit of bad news as GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis blew up this week, which might give Dem candidate Hickenlooper a path to a potentially strong victory.  This situation will have to be monitored, as a strong turnout by Hickenlooper in the governor’s race could have an impact on the Senate contest (though probably not as much in independent-minded CO as in other states), but for now I keep the GOP ahead here.

7.Missouri – Pretty much all polling shows this race is either a dead heat, or has Roy Blunt up a statistically insignificant 1-2% on Robin Carnahan. Really, I think this race could be the closest of the whole cycle, but I just think that Carnahan’s name, and the fact that she is a better candidate is going to get her over the top.  We could finally see some movement in this race as the campaign gets going.

8.Ohio – If you’ve read my posts on SSP before, then you know that I am not as big a believer in money as most.  Yes it’s true that Rob Portman has tons of cash and may be able to try to EMeg his way to a victory, but I can tell you that most Ohioans would be resentful of such an approach.  Namely, this state gets bombarded by political ads every 2 years because of it’s competitiveness and people get sick of it after a while.  The fact that he’s losing in the polls right now, when other democrats are struggling nationally, and that he’s a bad fit for the state politically means I keep democrat Fisher ahead here.

2010 Senate Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

New York (Schumer)

Vermont (Leahy)

Maryland (Mikulski)

Oregon (Wyden)

Hawaii (Inouye)

New York (Gillibrand)

Likely Dem – 1 seat

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Lean Dem – 4 seats

California (Boxer)

Nevada (Reid)

Washington (Murray)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Toss Up – 5 seats

Ohio (Open)

Colorado (Open)

Missouri (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Lean Ind – 1 seat

Florida (Open)

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Kentucky (Open)

North Carolina (Burr)

Indiana (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Georgia (Isakson)

Delaware (Open)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Iowa (Grassley)

Arizona (McCain)

Solid Rep – 9 seats

South Carolina (Demint)

Alabama (Shelby)

North Dakota (Open)

South Dakota (Thune)

Kansas (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

Utah (Open)

Idaho (Crapo)

Alaska (Murkowski)

Another month, another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  

Ladies and gentlemen of swing state project, I feel as though we are at a major crossroads in the battle for the House of Representatives.  The economy continues to swing and sway, and whichever way it goes could decide a lot.  The oil spill, depending on how well claims are carried out and the oil cleaned up, as well as whether or not a hurricane comes and spreads oil inland, is a big question mark.  And other wild cards such as scandals and national security could rear their ugly heads as well.  The way I see things, the GOP is going to gain enough to where taking control isn’t far out of reach, but they need one more opening between now and November to take the House.

Total House Math for July:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +26

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (30) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, CO-4, FL-2, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NH-1, NH-2, NM-2, ND-1, NY-24,  NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-11, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WV-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – OH-15

Republican to Democrat – none

July Ratings Changes –

1.North Carolina-2 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – Bob Etheridge deciding to go MMA on those planted GOP hacks…errrr! College students, puts his seat on the board, but really I don’t expect this seat to go red.  Weak competition is the reason.

2.California-3 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – Two months ago, I would have thought that a pair of strong statewide victories for Team Blue for governor and senate would put this seat in the blue column.  Fast forward ahead, and it appears that both races will be somewhat close, which means that Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina will almost certainly carry CA-3, and maybe by wide margins.  Ami Bera will have to fight not only that, but a republican incumbent in a republican year.  Sorry, that’s just too much to overcome.

3.Hawaii-1 – Toss Up to Lean Dem – With Charles Djou’s nay vote on financial reform, I feel he has already endangered his shaky hold on a seat that he wouldn’t have now if not for Hawaii’s dumb special election laws.  In my opinion, Colleen Hanabusa is now favored, and another vote like this will probably doom Djou.

4.Arizona-1 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – I didn’t want to move this one because of Kirkpatrick’s competition being weak, but it looks like Arizona is a real conservative hotbed of activity at the moment, so I’ll be cautious and move AZ-1 to lean.  I was previously holding out hope that the state would move more in the Dem direction in 2010 because of the home-state vote for McCain in 2008 wearing off, but I’m not as sure that will happen now.  

5.Arizona-5 – Lean Dem to Toss Up – This is kind of along the same lines as Kirkpatrick, except that Mitchell has a tougher district.  

6.Idaho-1 – Toss Up to Lean Dem – With Minnick picking up endorsements on both sides of the aisle, and his competition being extremely weak and underfunded, I think he’s now a slight favorite for re-election in this ruby-red seat.

7.New York-13 – Lean Dem to Likely Dem – full scale civil war appears to have erupted here for Team Red.  McMahon, who was sitting in the toss-up column and facing a Dem third party challenger backed by the NY WFP two months ago, has seen his fortunes rise quite a bit.

8.West Virginia-1 – Likely Rep to Toss Up – All right, I admit it, I was wrong on this one.  I thought that when Alan Mollohan went down to Pelosi-hating Mike Oliverio last month, that this somewhat-red district was all but delivered to Team Red.  But Oliverio has sounded some much softer tones lately, and his challenger, David McKinley, didn’t have the fundraising boost and bump in the polls that I would have anticipated from Mollohan going down.  I still think that many progressives will refuse to support Oliverio, but he’s now got a path to victory.

9.Louisiana-3 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – Well, with the gulf oil spill ruining the beaches and people’s lives here, I think we can put this one to bed, even if Charlie Melancon runs strong at the top, I don’t see Sangisetty having much of a chance in a race that will almost certainly be nationalized more than most.

10.Tennessee-6 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – Much like LA-3, I think this rural southern district is just about out of reach at this point.

11.California-48 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – With Beth Krom’s fundraising really struggling, and facing a tough incumbent, I think this one should come off the board as well.

12.Ohio-15 – Toss Up to Lean Republican (Rep pickup) – This is a move I make with a very heavy heart.  Against the grain and advice of just about everybody, I’ve kept this race in the democratic column.  But I realized that with the evidence mounting, the tight cash on hand race, the national mood, the struggles Kilroy has had with charisma and reaching out to voters, all of it adds up to a republican pickup.  I’m not happy about it, but I’m throwing my rooting interest aside.

13.New York-24 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Mike Arcuri basically screwed himself with his flip-flop on health care reform, and he hasn’t done anything to really help his position since then, plus his competition is very tough.  He’s now a slight underdog to be re-elected.

14.Ohio-1 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Well, if OH-15 gets moved, this one has to get moved as well.  Steve Driehaus I think is on borrowed time at this point, unless he can somehow get blacks to turn out in big numbers in 2010.  Really, I think he deserves better than this considering that OH-1 is actually slightly democratic according to the PVI, but the voting pattern of minorities is extremely fickle.

15.Pennsylvania-11 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – I know this much, if Paul Kanjorski can barely beat Lou Barletta in a strong democratic year, his chances of doing it in a strongly republican year are certainly less than 50/50

16.Mississippi-1 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – With a really strong competitor coming against him and with his district being very close to ground zero for the tea party movement, I think Travis Childers is on borrowed time as well.  The GOP will be very unhappy on election night if they can’t win a district like MS-1.

17.Georgia-12 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – I think I would be amiss to totally dismiss the possibility of Barrow getting knocked off in November.  After all, this is a swing district in the south, the heart of tea party country.

18.Kansas-2 – Solid Rep to Likely Rep – Sean Tevis’s emergence as a candidate here and his ambitious plans means that this district is worth watching once again.  Word on the street is that conservatives are unhappy with Lynn Jenkins and are trying to take her out in the primary, so that could either leave her wounded, or knock her out for a crazy wingnut, either of which would benefit Tevis.  Stay tuned.

19.Virginia-2 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – Glenn Nye has not done himself any favors by opposing most of the democratic agenda, and unfortunately for him, there aren’t any races upballot of Congress in Virginia in 2010, so I fear that democratic turnout here could be very, very low.  Rigell’s a tough challenger too.

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 163 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 31 seats:

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 22 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 32 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 19 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 15 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-2 (Jenkins)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 153 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

So here’s the other side of Capitol Hill, and the view from it this month.  Since starting this projection back in February, the red wave has grown marginally every month that I’ve gone forward.  This month, at the margins, the wave is continuing to grow higher even though the ratings changes were much more split.  There were fewer ratings changes this month than last month as well, 17 of them in total.  I’ll run through them quickly, but first a bit of housekeeping.  

Up to this point, I have been purposely keeping on the watch list (likely D to likely R range) races in which an incumbent is facing a PVI of more than 13 points in favor of the opposite party.  This month I do away with that rule, which impacted a few races.  Also, up to this point I’ve been following Charlie Cook’s custom of never putting an incumbent in a worse position than tossup unless their PVI was overwhelmingly in favor of the opposition party.  This month I’ve thrown that rule away as well, although there were only a few cases in which I thought about moving an incumbent into underdog status.

So from now on, it’s all gut instinct.  Onto this month’s ratings changes:

1.Minnesota-7 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I was holding out on this race because of the toughness of Peterson’s district, but seeing how the republicans didn’t get any solid candidates of note into this race, it’s moving off the board.  

2.California-11 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – This race kinda caught me off guard, but I do think Jerry McNerney is in a lot more trouble than I would have thought a few months ago.  David Harmer, who performed very well against John Garamendi in CA-10 last year, steamrolled to a victory in the republican primary here yesterday.  I think he’s very legitimate.  Worse, since both of the statewide races are closer than the presidential race was in 2004 or 2008, it’s likely that Whitman/Fiorina will carry this district up-ballot, which will put a lot of pressure on McNerney to get voters to split their tickets.  The way I see it, this race is right in the same boat as CA-3 now.

3.Illinois-11 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up/Dem Retention – I’m really not feeling bullish about Debbie Halvorson’s chances in this district anymore, not necessarily because of what she’s done personally, but because the democratic brand in Illinois seems to be going to hell in a handbasket.  With the top of the ticket of Quinn and Giannoulias likely to get demolished here in November, I think as a freshman, Halvorson is really going to have to hustle to offset the coming red wave here.  Also, the Illinois districts could be particularly vulnerable to a wave because of the home state effect in 2008 making the PVIs here look better than they really are.  And then there’s the fact that polling has her behind republican challenge Adam Kinzinger

4.Illinois-14 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up/Dem Retention – See Illinois-11 above.  Bill Foster’s district is politically very similar to Halvorson’s, and if she’s losing to a ragtag operation like Adam Kinzinger’s campaign, you know Foster can’t be in a much better position.  Thus, he gets dropped as well.

5.New York-13 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – Mike McMahon’s position has greatly improved in the past month.  Facing a challenge from the working family’s party and a unified attack from the right, things didn’t look good.  But now the GOP and conservative parties in New York are now fighting again, and the WFP doesn’t to be in a position to mount much of a challenge.  It’s possible that the republican and conservative lines will be split a la NY-23 in 2009.

6.Ohio-16 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up/Dem Retention – This one I’m moving mostly based on what I’m seeing on the ground here in northeast Ohio.  The Medina County GOP’s infamous mailer about nearby congresswoman Betty Sutton “getting thrown out of the house and into the kitchen” seems to be a reflection of how things are going in the rural reaches of Boccieri’s district.  Though that crap is hugely unpopular in metro Cleveland, this district is a little further out, exurby type, and the tea party seems to be organizing well here.  Republican candidate Jim Renacci has been strong to this point.  I now think that despite Boccieri’s almost star status in the Ohio GOP, that this district might be shifting under his feet a bit, and his vote for HCR really sent some people into a tizzy.  Toss up.

7.Ohio-13 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – While we’re talking about it, that controversial and sexist mailer from the Medina County GOP was an unexpected punch to the gut for Tom Ganley in his bid to unseat Betty Sutton.  Sutton has now picked up a lot of sympathy from locals here in Ohio-13, particularly from women voters.  OH-13, my home district, is a mix of upscale suburbs and working class industrial areas south and west of Cleveland, and this kind of stuff doesn’t play well here.  While Ganley’s favorables probably haven’t been affected, Sutton’s have probably seen a nice bump.

8.California-3 – Toss Up/Dem Takeover to Toss Up/Rep Retention – I admit it, from the start I was perhaps a little too bullish on this district.  I think that even though California is blue and likes Obama, and even though Ami Bera is still out-campaigning and out-fundraising incumbent Dan Lungren, the inevitable wins at the top of the ticket here by Whitman and Fiorina are going to be very tough to overcome.  So I dial down the enthusiasm a bit here.

9.Idaho-1 – Toss Up/Rep Takeover to Toss Up/Dem Retention – This is a very unusual race to look at.  On one hand, the district is extremely conservative, and really all the republican nominee should have to say is “he voted for Pelosi” and it’s over.  But strangely, and I know his voting record has been conservative but still, Walt Minnick has been able to get most of ID-1 to like him enough to where they look beyond his party affiliation.  The great thing is that the GOP has botched this one up from the beginning too, as NRCC pick Vaughn Ward went Bill Sali 2.0 and went up in flames.  At this point, I gotta like Minnick’s chances at a retention.

10.Iowa-3 – Toss Up/Rep Takeover to Toss Up/Dem Retention – Walt Minnick isn’t the only incumbent looking better today.  Leonard Boswell’s chances went up following Tuesday night’s primary as the NRCC and the republican establishment screwed the pooch here too.  Their fave, and probably their best candidate, wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, fell against state senator Brad Zaun, who was reportedly a target of republican offers as power brokers tried to get him out of the race.  Given this dynamic, I wonder if the republican electorate could end up somewhat divided.  Either way, Boswell is probably the favorite now to retain the seat despite what could be a scary situation up-ballot with Terry Branstad and Chuck Grassley zooming to victory.

11.New Mexico-2 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Toss Up/Rep Takeover – Once again, here’s a race that’s less about the candidate than what is going on around him/her.  A month ago, it appeared that Harry Teague would be getting some nice up-ballot coattails from Diane Denish in the governor’s race.  But now that race has turned into a toss up thanks to the emergence of Susana Martinez on the GOP side.  That means that she’ll be carrying NM-2 in that race, probably handily, and that puts Teague on the defensive against Pearce, who has lots of money and will likely be hammering Teague over his cap-n-trade vote, which was very unpopular here.

12.Pennsylvania-6 – Toss Up Dem Takeover to Lean Republican – This race has changed a lot in the past month as well.  I rated this race a great chance for a democratic takeover mostly because of Gerlach’s getting out and flip-flopping, as well as Doug Pike’s strong financial backing.  But now that his campaign flamed out miserably and Minan Trevedi won the democratic nomination, I don’t see a pickup as very likely anymore.  Maybe Trevedi could win an open seat, but in this environment, beating Gerlach is going to be an uphill climb.

13.Pennsylvania-12 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Lean Democrat – I had figured that Mark Critz would defeat Tim Burns in the special election last month, but I wouldn’t have expected a 9-point cruise.  In the wake of that result, I feel good enough moving this race to lean.

14.Arkansas-2 – Lean Republican to Likely Republican – With Joyce Elliott’s win in last night’s AR-2 runoff, I really don’t feel good about this race anymore.  Tim Griffin’s road just got a lot easier, presumably because Elliott is more liberal than Wills would have been, and there’s also that sticky fact of her being a black woman in one of the most racist states in the nation in terms of voting habits.

15.Illinois-13 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – The bad top of the ticket for Team Blue kills it for Scott Harper, who couldn’t even beat Judy Biggert in a solidly democratic year, much less a bad one.

16.Arkansas-1 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Lean Republican – I think I erred on this seat a bit when I moved it back into the democratic column.  The way things are going in Arkansas, Generic R could beat just about any democrat.  The red wave is going to crest really, really high in Arkansas this year, and Boozman will be providing coattails.  Chad Causey will have to run a perfect campaign and make things local in nature to have much of any shot.

17.Utah-2 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I was holding out on this race to see if the Republicans could put up a halfway decent challenger to Jim Matheson.  Well, they haven’t, and even in a district this conservative, I feel good about moving this one off the board.  You have to wonder if Matheson will go for the Senate in 2012, especially if Orrin Hatch gets teabagged and/or retires.

Total House Math for June:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +25

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (29) – WV-1, AR-2, LA-3, TN-6, IN-8, KS-3, NH-2, NY-29, AL-2, CO-4, FL-2, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NH-1, NY-24, ND-1, OH-1, PA-11, TN-4, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, AR-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AR-1, PA-6, CA-3, NM-2

Republican to Democrat – IA-3, ID-1

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 165 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-12, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-2, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, UT-2, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 28 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-36 (Harman)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 22 seats:

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 39 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 12 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-48 (Campbell)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Souder)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Tennessee-6 (Open)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Solid Rep – 151 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

I’m going to hit you guys with a double feature this week as I give my June updates for both the Senate and the House.  Today I’ll start with the Senate, where there was a lot of moving and shaking based on the outcome of several primaries and some bad news cycles for a certain challenger in Illinois.  Here’s the lay of the land, starting with the ratings changes.

June Ratings Changes:

1.Nevada – Lean Republican to Toss Up – The Republicans’ best chance of a pickup on the board has really turned into a screw the pooch situation.  Sue Lowden had settled in as the candidate of choice after several other more prominent names had passed on the race, but her campaign went belly up over her system of bartering chickens for health coverage.  And as a result, weapons-grade wingnut Sharron Angle won the republican primary.  Against anybody else, in any other year, Angle would be unelectable in Nevada, but in this situation she’s still got a shot.  But it’s no better than 50-50, thus the move back to toss-up status.

2.Illinois – Lean Republican to Toss Up – Mark Kirk had everything going in this race for a while, as first no great democratic challengers (coughLisaMadigancough) stepped up to the plate, and then opponent Alexi Giannoulias had his family’s bank implode, resulting in a lot of bad press.  Everything was going right, until Kirk decided to play the “let’s embellish my military service and discredit other congressional veterans” game.  The press was a little slower to jump on Kirk than they were Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut a week earlier, but this story has lingered and has probably cut into Kirk’s numbers a bit (funny how Scotty Rass wasn’t exactly right there with a poll following this news like he was with Blumenthal).  Toss-up once again.

3.Arkansas – Lean Republican to Likely Republican – The Democrats’ only hope was that Lt Gov Bill Halter would knock off Lincoln in the primary, and he came mighty close to doing so.  Alas though, the more centrist yet radioactive Lincoln snuck through in the runoff.  Barring a series of gaffes by Boozman, or a remarkable turnaround in Lincoln’s favorables, she’s cooked.

4.Louisiana – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – Maybe I’m underestimating Louisiana’s hatred of Democrats, but I have to believe that Charlie Melancon’s chances of pulling an upset here are much better now than they were a month ago.  His response to the BP Oil Spill has been phenomenal, while Vitter is sure to get hit on his unpopular positions related to the subject, particularly capping BP’s liability.  Surely other issues will be discussed in this race, but I think Melancon has at least a fighting chance now, which he didn’t really have a month ago.  What we need is for some other polling firm not named Rassmussen or Research 2000 to poll this race.  

5.South Carolina – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – Now that the Dems’ favored candidate shockingly went down to defeat against a 30-something who lives at home, I can feel confident beyond any doubt that Jim Demint will be re-elected.  Safe.

Takeover Board Changes:

Well, this is boring, but there aren’t any changes on the takeover board this month.  I thought about moving Illinois back to Democratic retention, but I’m really, really down on Giannoulias as a candidate.  The only other race I considered moving was Missouri, but I’m still fairly confident that when all is said and done, Missourians are going to come to their senses and Carnahan will win.  As it stands, she’s only trailing by 1-3 points in most polls anyway.  

Senate Math: (counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats)

Old – 59 Democrat, 41 Republican

New – 54 Democrat, 45 Republican, 1 Independent

Republican Pickups (7) – North Dakota, Illinois, Arkansas, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado, Delaware

Democratic Pickups (2) – Ohio, Missouri

Independent Pickups (1) – Florida

2010 Senate Big Board (as of June update, Bold indicates pickups)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

New York (Schumer)

Vermont (Leahy)

Maryland (Mikulski)

Oregon (Wyden)

Hawaii (Inouye)

New York (Gillibrand)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Lean Dem – 3 seats

Pennsylvania (Sestak)

California (Boxer)

Washington (Murray)

Toss Up – 6 seats

Florida (Open)

Ohio (Open)

Colorado (Open)

Missouri (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Kentucky (Open)

North Carolina (Burr)

Indiana (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Georgia (Isakson)

Delaware (Open)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Iowa (Grassley)

Arizona (McCain)

Solid Rep – 9 seats

South Carolina (Demint)

Alabama (Shelby)

North Dakota (Open)

South Dakota (Thune)

Kansas (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

Utah (Open)

Idaho (Crapo)

Alaska (Murkowski)

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – May Ratings Update!

Hello my dear SSPers, and welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  You are locked on to my third monthly installment, this being the Ratings Update for the month of May.  

What has happened in the last 30 days?  Well first off, we had a massive flood in Tennessee, a huge oil spill in the Gulf south of Louisiana, tornadoes in Oklahoma, etc.  It was a very bad month for natural disasters.  On top of that, we had a major stock market dump about a week ago thanks to the debt crisis in Greece and several other European nations.  These events are probably only serving to heighten the anger directed toward Washington.  On the other hand, we had a very positive jobs report in April, and the economy is showing major signs of turning around.  Polls are showing democrats fairing better for the most part, most notably in the Senate races, but we’ve seen some fairly distressing House polls as well.

My feeling overall is that the field has improved marginally for the GOP over the past 30 days.  A lot of attention right now is on the two upcoming special elections in democratic districts.  In Hawaii-1, Charles Djou is heading toward a victory against Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa, who are dividing the Democratic vote.  In Pennsylvania-12, republican Tim Burns and democrat Mark Critz are locked in a tight battle.  I feel that Critz will pull out a close win there.  Since I am operating under the assumption of wins by Critz and Djou, the current congress numbers have been adjusted to 256 democrats and 179 republicans, and those two are listed as incumbents on the big board.  Obviously, if HI-1 stays blue, or if PA-12 goes red, then that will change the math as well as the rating on those seats for November.

So without further ado, here we go!

May Ratings Changes:

1.Arizona-8 – Likely D to Lean D – It appears that the Arizona GOP has really gone hammer and tongs after Gabrielle Giffords, and indeed several challengers put up good fundraising last quarter, most notably Paton, who raised over 500k.  Giffords is popular, and has a huge war chest, but I could see the newly passed immigration law causing trouble for her since her district lies on the border.  

2.California-18 – Solid D to Likely D – I have begun tracking this race primarily because of the incumbent’s relatively poor financial situation in a district that only leans democrat.  

3.Nevada-1 – Likely D to Solid D – With the recent implosion of Sue Lowden, I think it’s unlikely that the republican candidates up-ballot will run close enough in NV-1 to put Shelley Berkley in danger.  Safe.

4.Oregon-5 – Likely D to Lean D – This swing district could be a bigger problem than anticipated, even though Oregon is moving left.

5.Illinois-8 – Likely D to Solid D – With the implosion of Joe Walsh’s campaign, Melissa Bean’s road just got a lot easier.  Safe.

6.Wisconsin-7 – Likely D to Toss Up – This one caught me off guard as I didn’t think we’d have any more retirements this late in the cycle.  Wrong.  This is a slightly democratic district, but with the environment it’s going to be a battle, especially since Sean Duffy has gotten out to a strong start on the R side.  The good news is that the Dems seem to be coalescing around a strong candidate, state senator Julie Lassa.

7.Mississippi-4 – Likely D to Lean D – Sound the alarm bells, from Biloxi to Hattiesburg.  If Gene Taylor doesn’t get his butt moving fundraising and on the campaign trail soon, he won’t be around much longer.  It’s not a good year for long running incumbents, and it’s an even worse year for democrats in the rural south.  That’s two strikes.  Not running a full-out campaign and not fundraising would be strike three.  And comparing the oil spilling in the Gulf to “chocolate milk”?!  Really?!

8.Texas-23 – Likely D to Lean D – The Republicans did the smart thing here, and actually elected a Hispanic to go up against Ciro Rodriguez in this marginally republican district (but one that did go for Obama).  It remains to be seen how well Quico Canseco can campaign in the general, but this one definitely bears watching now.

9.Texas-27 – Likely D to Solid D – The GOP missed an opportunity here, not really finding anybody of substance to take on Ortiz in what could have been a toss-up district according to the PVI.  Safe.

10.Ohio-13 – Likely D to Lean D – As OH-13 is my home district, so it is with a heavy heart that I downgrade it to Lean D.  See, this race is weird, because Betty Sutton is well liked, and the district is strongly democratic.  But, challenger Tom Ganley is sitting on the biggest warchest of any republican, incumbent or challenger, this cycle.  He actually is beating Sutton 6-to-1 in cash on hand.  If Sutton doesn’t start fundraising better, Ganley could attempt to EMeg his way to a victory.

11.Georgia-2 – Likely D to Lean D – I’m starting to get really concerned here too.  My concern here is that because of Bishop’s conservatism, that base democrats in this district may not turn out in big numbers to support him.  The upcoming primary here should tell us a lot.  Besides that, this district is barely democratic, and Bishop isn’t sitting on much cash.  Can’t believe Charlie Cook still has this one at Solid D, one of the few races in which I lean further right than he does.

12.North Carolina-8 – Likely D to Lean D – Larry Kissell did not have a good quarter fundraising, and he had a very lackluster primary win.  Those are troubling signs, but luckily his competition isn’t the greatest.  Still, without the cash, Kissell may struggle.

13.Ohio-18 – Lean D to Likely D – I’ve never really gotten the feeling that Zack Space is vulnerable, and I think going against HCR the 2nd go round was smart on his part as the district is conservative in nature.  Even better, the Republican primary is going to a recount, which is undoubtedly going to leave the victor banged and bruised.  Plus, neither GOPer has much cash while Space is killing it in fundraising.

14.New York-4 – Likely D to Safe D – I don’t even remember why I was tracking this race.  Safe.

15.Wisconsin-3 – Safe D to Likely D – With long running incumbents not faring well in early primary returns, and with the general discontent still running high, I have to put Ron Kind’s district in play, even though I don’t think there’s a great chance of a takeover here.

16.Missouri-3 – Safe D to Likely D – Russ Carnahan has drawn a moneybags republican challenger, so it’s possible that this race could draw some attention even though MO-3 is very democratic in nature.  

17.Connecticut-5 – Lean D to Likely D – This race was pretty much all predicated on coattails and the GOP coalescing around somebody strong.  Neither has happened.  Murphy is sitting on a nice cash advantage too.

18.Hawaii-1 – Lean D to Toss Up – I’m now going on the assumption that Charles Djou will win the special election for this seat next week, meaning that he will go up against the winner of the inevitable Dem primary battle between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa in November.  In this environment, and with Hawaii’s usual liking of incumbents, Djou has a shot to survive, which is why I move the race to Toss Up.

19.Florida-8 – Toss Up to Lean D – With his gobs and gobs of money and with very weak-sauce competition, I just don’t think Alan Grayson is all that vulnerable.  I feel confident enough to move this race to lean despite the fact that Bill McCollum might bring some R coattails in the Orlando area.  Unless if Rubio and McCollum are winning big, Grayson will be fine.  He hasn’t made any headlines with his mouth lately either, which helps.

20.Michigan-9 – Lean D to Likely D – Gary Peters isn’t really a prominent target for the R’s now that they don’t have a strong candidate and that MI-1 has opened up.  I don’t think the NRCC will be making this a priority, which makes Peters’s strong financial situation decisive.

21.New York-23 – Toss Up to Lean D – It looks like intraparty warfare is coming to NY-23 once again, as favorite Doug Hoffman is trailing Matt Doheny in the money race and both are throwing barbs at each other already.  That’s good news for Bill Owens, who rode the Hoffman-Scozzafava war into office last time.

22.Florida-2 – Lean D to Toss Up – This is one district that I am really, really concerned about, and have been for months.  Alan Boyd, probably due to his yes on HCR vote, is showing up more than 10 points down in republican internal polls.  While those are probably outliers, this is a district in which Obama underperformed Kerry, and it’s moving away from Team Blue.  I’m anxiously waiting to see how the Governor and Senate races here turn out, because that will go a long way in deciding whether Boyd survives or not.

23.West Virginia-1 – Lean D to Likely R – With incumbent Alan Mollohan losing the democratic primary to Oliverio, I think it’s pretty much a goner, and that McKinley will take it for the republicans.  R+9 open seats in areas in which Obama cratered two years ago are just about the worst case scenario for democrats to defend.  WV-1’s dem electorate really screwed this one up.

24.California-45 – Likely R to Lean R – Mary Bono Mack, I feel is going to experience a bit of a turnout problem because of her vote for Cap-N-Trade, particularly if moderate Tom Campbell is nominated for the Senate race.  That, coupled with Steve Pougnet’s strong fundraising, has made this one the race to watch in southern California.

25.Arizona-3 – Lean R to Likely R – With the new immigration law kicking in, I feel that Republicans across the state are getting a bit of a boost, and that prompts this rating change.  Which is not Hulburd couldn’t steal this one, but he has lost the money advantage too, at least against some of the potential R candidates.

26.New Hampshire-2 – Toss Up to Lean R – What a mess.  I never would’ve expected that a D+3 seat in the northeast would be one of Team Blue’s biggest headaches this cycle, but here it is.  Polls are showing Charlie Bass running far ahead of Katrina Swett, one of the presumptive democratic candidates.  Ann McLane Kuster could win the D nomination instead, but Swett has a huge money lead, both on Kuster and Bass.  If the polls are true, the red wave will be really, really amplified in NH because seeing Swett down 15 points last month was a shock to me.

27.Michigan-11 – Likely R to Solid R – What a huge disappointment, again.  Why is it that Team Blue can never seem to get anybody to run here?  Maybe they are hedging that this is the seat that will get cut out in redistricting, but in either case, Thad McCotter looks like he’s in good shape for another term, which is hugely disappointing seeing as he was one of the top 10 most vulnerable R’s at this time last year.

28.Minnesota-3 – Likely R to Solid R – Ditto for Eric Paulsen, who looks good for another term.  Team Blue really screwed up by nominating the wrong candidate in 2008, and it looks like the DFL hasn’t recovered, as their recruitment has gone seriously awry.

29.New Jersey-7 – Likely R to Solid R – By pushing a moderate profile, and with a poor recruiting cycle for the democrats here, it looks like Leonard Lance is locked in for another term.  Shame, because there’s nothing worse than a arch-conservative masquerading as a moderate and getting away with it.

30.Florida-10 – Likely R to Solid R – This was another seat that looked oh so good 12 months ago.  But with Bill Young hanging in, and Charlie Justice barely able to outraise Roland Burris, it looks like Young isn’t going anywhere fast.

31.Kansas-2 – Likely R to Solid R – I had moved this seat previously on the hope that moderate v conservative warfare would break out and possibly take out Lynn Jenkins in the primary.  But it doesn’t appear that will happen, so I’m putting this seat back into safe territory.  I still wonder where this race would be if Laura Kelly was in it.  Maybe Lean R at worst?

32.South Carolina-2 – Lean R to Likely R – Ultimately, I don’t see a pickup here as all that likely, although Joe Wilson will have to deal with a lot of ads showing his gaffe over and over again.  Team Blue picking up R+10 seats in the south, this year?  Really?

33.Florida-12 – Lean R to Likely R – With Lori Edwards struggling on the fundraising front, I move this seat in the republican direction.  

34.Ohio-2 – Likely R to Solid R – With David Krikorian getting beat in the D primary by Surya Yalamanchili, it appears that Mean Jean is set.  She actually cleared 60% in the primary, which is amazing for her.  Really, OH-2 is probably the most racist district in my home state, aside from possibly OH-6, and people there aren’t going for a non-white Dem candidate, especially one whose name that they can’t pronounce.  Sorry, but that’s the cold hard truth.

May Pickup Changes:

Four seats changed in their final color this month.  Hawaii-1, which again is now a red district, I believe will go blue once again in November, bringing the number of democratic pickups to 6.  Three districts went from blue to red this month.  The first of those is Florida-2, where I think Alan Boyd will be defeated, mostly a result of his HCR vote.  West Virginia-1, which is now an open seat due to Mollohan going down in the primary, will flip from blue to red as well.  The third seat is New Hampshire-2, which is now a republican pickup mostly due to the recent polling data I’ve seen.

Final Statistics:

Current Congress – 256 democrats, 179 republicans

Projected New Congress – 233 democrats, 202 republicans

National Swing – Republicans +23

Democratic Pickups – HI-1, CA-3, IL-10, LA-2, PA-6, DE-1

Republican Pickups – CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3, ND-1, IA-3, KS-3, AR-2, LA-3, AL-2, MS-1, TX-17, MI-1, MI-7, IN-8, OH-1, FL-2, VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, WV-1, MD-1, PA-11, NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, NY-29

2010 House Big Board (as of May update)

Solid Dem – 161 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-12, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, KS-1, KS-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-2, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 30 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-36 (Harman)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-7 (Peterson)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 26 seats:

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 38 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 11 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Griffith)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-48 (Campbell)

Florida-12 (Open)

Illinois-13 (Biggert)

Indiana-3 (Souder)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Tennessee-6 (Open)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Solid Rep – 151 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

Welcome all once again to StephenCLE’s predictions, these being the Senate variety.  Last time, we went through the first third of the Senate seats up for grabs this cycle.  Those seats included competitive races throughout the Eastern US, such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.  Today, we head to the region that will more or less determine the balance of power in the Senate this election cycle, the Central US.  

Current National Score – Republicans +.5

Current Seat Changes:

1.Delaware – Republican pickup

2.Florida – Independent pickup

Before We Begin –

I feel the need to bring up the Pennsylvania Senate race I covered last week, where I had Arlen Specter running away from Pat Toomey in the end.  Well, it now appears that Joe Sestak is going to defeat him in the primary.  As a result, I am now moving the race to Toss Up status, but it is still a democratic retention.  I just think Toomey is way too conservative for the state, which is much more blue now than when Rick Santorum was elected.

Eastern Great Lakes –

Ohio – Open (Republican) – Ohio is always a contested, swing state.  An uncontested race here usually means a landslide for one party or the other.  Strangely, despite the Republicans doing well nationally, they are struggling here.  Part of that is because GOP candidate Rob Portman isn’t catching on with voters.  Now that could be because of lack of name recognition, but it’s more likely that his reputation as a free trading, anti-government type isn’t well suited to the state.  His base is very energized though, as evidenced by his crazy strong fundraising.  Conversely, the democratic candidate, Lee Fisher, has a bit of a problem as far as his base is concerned.  Voters just aren’t enthused by his candidacy.  Despite outspending primary opponent Jennifer Brunner 10-1, he badly underperformed pre-election polls and won by a high single digit margin.  I think that in many ways, this race is tied heavily to the other big race in Ohio this cycle, the gubernatorial contest between Ted Strickland and John Kasich, because Portman/Kasich are practically the same candidate, as Strickland/Fisher are tied at the hip in the governor’s mansion.  Flat out, I don’t see Kasich beating Strickland.  There won’t be a lot of crossover voting in this race, so if Strickland wins by more than 5%, I think that’s enough to pull Fisher over the finish line. Fisher’s going to need coattails from somewhere to drive up Dem turnout, something that he has a hard time doing himself.  Still, this is arguably the Democrats’ best shot at a pickup, and I think by a miniscule margin they get it done.

State PVI – R+0

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (1st overall)

National Score – Democrats +.5

Indiana – Open (Democratic) – Indiana for many years had been a republican bastion, before the Democrats swept to wins in 3 house seats in 2006 before bringing down the house with Obama’s 2008 statewide victory.  I’m concerned that the state might be reverting back to it’s former roots, as most polls here have been friendly to the GOP, but again, most have come from Rassmussen and it’s strict likely voter screen.  This is a race though, in which the Democrats have the arguably better candidate.  Representative Brad Ellsworth is a conservative democrat that should play well outside of the most republican parts of the state.  A former sheriff, Ellsworth has the support of law-and-order types, and his conservative stances on guns and certain social issues should be a plus.  His republican opponent, former senator Dan Coats, is a relative moderate GOPer that has lots of experience.  But he has visible negatives, namely working as a lobbyist.  For what it’s worth, lobbyists are probably about as popular as Saddam Hussein these days.  This is one race where I don’t think the polls have much bearing right now, since Ellsworth is very little known outside of the 8th district.  Still, I think that because of the environment, Coats will barely hold off a hard-charging Ellsworth at the wire.

State PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Lean Republican

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (2nd overall)

National Score – Republicans +.5

Michigan – no election

Western Great Lakes –

Illinois – Open (Democrat) – This race makes my blood boil.  First off, the democrats suffered through the Rob Blagojevich scandal which broke when he tried to sell the seat to the highest bidder.  Then Roland Burris was put in the seat, he of the $20 fundraising quarter.  And then, candidate recruitment here was a category 5 disaster, as the Republicans got the one man that could probably win, Representative Mark Kirk.  The Democrats failed to get the one woman that could’ve put the race to bed, attorney general Lisa Madigan.  And after all that, the democratic candidate, treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, is struggling with the breakdown of his family’s bank.  By all accounts, this race should be hopeless, but Giannoulias is only behind by 4-6 points in most polls.  While I think the partisan lean of Illinois could be such that Giannoulias has a shot, I haven’t liked this matchup from the start, and I don’t like it now.  Alexi won’t be getting any help from the governor’s race either, so no coattails.  In the end, I think Kirk wins fairly handily.

State PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Lean Republican

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (3rd overall)

National Score – Republicans +1.5

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold (Democrat) – Feingold and the DSCC got a big break when the Republicans’ top candidate, former governor Tommy Thompson, failed to get into the race.  Still, I think it’s possible that the race could be competitive if the GOP gets a self-funder.  There are several candidates in the field with the ability to do that.  A lot of the trajectory of this race will be determined by who gets the GOP nomination.  Ultimately I think Feingold will win, but a wary eye never hurt anybody.

State PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely Democrat

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Minnesota – No election

Central Plains –

North Dakota – Open (Democrat) – This is the one seat over all others that we KNOW is going to flip in November.  Popular governor John Hoeven elected to challenge senator Byron Dorgan back in January, and Dorgan, perhaps sensing the inevitable, dived out of the way.  This is a shame because Dorgan was a popular figure at home and in the democratic caucus.  But his chances of surviving against Hoeven were very small.  Only token opposition will face Hoeven now.

State PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid Republican

Prediction – Solid Rep Pickup (4th overall)

National Score – Republicans +2.5

South Dakota – John Thune (Republican) – No democrat filed to run against John Thune, so he will skate by uncontested.  Blah.

State PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid Republican

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Nebraska – No election

Iowa – Chuck Grassley (Republican) – Now this is a race that not many people saw coming.  Grassley has been an institution in the Hawkeye State for many years, and usually wins big.  But it appears that he erred during the health care debate by doing all he could to try to kill the bill.  Iowa democrats have now turned against Grassley as a result and have coalesced behind a stronger than expected candidate, Roxanne Conlin.  Current polling shows that Grassley’s lead is down to about 10-13 points, still a nice cushion but hardly impossible for an opponent to make up.  Ultimately I think Conlin can make things interesting, but she will need to fight hard and hope for an unforced error from Grassley to win.

State PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely Republican

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Missouri – Open (Republican) – Missouri is usually a hotly contested state, and that will be the case again this year as Kit Bond’s Senate seat is up for grabs.  This race is intriguing because the state appears to be moving slightly to the right, and the national environment should put Missouri into the red column this year.  The problem is, the Democrats came up with a very solid candidate in secretary of state Robin Carnahan, who hails from a prominent political family.  The Republican candidate is 7th district representative Roy Blunt, who is definitely NOT the #1 guy for the GOP here.  Most public polls have had this race very close, except for Rasmussen, who shows Blunt up 6-8.  Curiously, most other public polling has shut off over the last two months, so we don’t have any corroborating evidence.  Bottom line though, I refuse to believe that an incumbenty-establishmenty type like Roy Blunt is pulling away from Robin Carnahan.  This is a race that I think is a great pickup opportunity for the Democrats, and if Carnahan campaigns well in the fall, unless the national environment has reached defcon 5, they’ll get it.

State PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (2nd overall)

National Score – Republicans +1.5

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (Democrat) – Here’s a formerly democratic state that has turned republican red in a hurry at the federal level.  And worse yet for Team Blue, Blanche Lincoln really killed her favorables during the health care debate by flip-flopping at every turn in the road.  Like Chuck Grassley, Mary Landrieu, and Ben Nelson, she became one of the prominent figures that received the national scorn.  Even 2nd tier republicans were beating her, and that was before 3rd district representative John Boozman jumped into the race.  Lt. Governor Bill Halter is primarying Lincoln from the left, and has a chance to knock her off.  His chances in the general election are marginally better than Lincoln’s but still bad.  Ultimately, I’ve pretty much written this seat off barring an unforced error from Boozman, who’s way up in his primary battle for the GOP nomination.

State PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Likely Republican

Prediction – Strong Rep Pickup (5th overall)

National Score – Republicans +2.5

Kansas – Open (Republican) – Kansas is a solidly republican state, and usually the game boils down to the GOP primary.  The Democrats did have one chance to flip the seat, as governor Kathleen Sebelius could have jumped into the race, but Barack Obama made her secretary of Health and Human Services, taking her out of the race.  Now it’s a battle between representatives Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt to see who will cruise to victory in November.

State PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid Republican

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn (Republican) – Oklahoma was the reddest state in the nation in 2008, and the Senate race here was never really a question.  I suppose maybe, that governor Brad Henry could have run for the seat, which would have made things at least mildly competitive, but even with him in the race a victory would be very unlikely.  Instead, I don’t think Coburn has any competition at all.

State PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid Republican

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Deep South Gulf –

Alabama – Richard Shelby (Republican) – Here’s another race that won’t even be a contest.  Alabama is about as red a state as you’ll find these days.

State PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid Republican

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Mississippi – no election

Louisiana – David Vitter (Republican) – Personally, this is a race that pisses me off.  Louisianans should be running to the polls in droves to vote out David Vitter, who’s a gigantic jerk for his ethical transgressions.  But apparently being a good, moral human being matters much less than being a conservative republicans, as not only is Vitter beating up on his democratic opponent, Charlie Melancon, he’s actually got positive favorables for the most part.  Meanwhile, Melancon’s favorables are underwater.  Why?  Because he’s a demmy-crat, apparently.  I’m not totally writing this off because Vitter’s lead is still only about 10-15 in most polls, but I fail to really see a path to victory for Melancon in a state that is just being bass-ackward and stupid when it comes to this election.  Yeah, I went there.

State PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Likely Republican

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Texas – no election

Recap – There’s a lot of upheaval in this region of the country.  I have the Republicans picking up 4 seats, Indiana, Illinois, North Dakota, and Arkansas.  The Democrats counter by picking up 2 seats of their own, Ohio and Missouri.  That leaves the national score so far at 5 Republican pickups, 2 for the Democrats, and 1 for the Independents, composite score of Republicans +2.5.

In the final section of the Senate baseline predictions, we head to the western third of the country, where we have potential R pickups in Colorado and Nevada, a very indecisive Repub-man in Washington, a competitive race in California, and some teabagger induced desert warfare in Arizona.  You won’t want to miss it.

So, up to this point, I have kept my prognostications reserved for the lower house of Congress.  For the most part I’ve wanted to see things unfold a bit on the Senate side.  But now I feel as though I’ve gotten enough of a feel for the candidates and the electorate to make an accurate baseline prediction on all the competitive Senate races this cycle.  As with my House baseline predictions from 2 months ago, I’ll go through every race, but obviously most of my attention will be turned to the toss-up and lean races.

The Senate this cycle is very much up for grabs, with 12, 13, maybe 14 races being considered competitive.  It’s going to be fun to watch.  The bad news for Team Blue is that they’ve got at least 2-3 seats going out the door immediately.  But Team Red can’t get too far ahead of themselves, because they’ve got quite a few vulnerable seats of their own.  At present the Democrats hold the Senate majority with 59 seats to the Republicans 41, meaning that the Republicans would need to rattle off 10 seats without losing any of their own to retake the body.  I’ll tackle the Senate in 3 parts, starting today in the east and going westward over the next week or so.

Part 1 – Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper South, South Atlantic

Part 2 – Eastern Great Lakes, Western Great Lakes, South Gulf, Central Plains

Part 3 – Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast

Northeast Region:

Maine – no election

New Hampshire – Open (Republican) – This seat looked to be a great pickup opportunity back in 2009 when Paul Hodes jumped into the race, but the environment has really hurt Dem chances in this notoriously independent and swingish state.  Popular attorney general Kelly Ayotte has led Hodes by 7-10 points in most public polls of the race the past few months.  While there is still a possibility that Ayotte will get knocked off in the GOP primary, I don’t see it happening.  Winning isn’t impossible for Hodes, but he will have to work extremely hard against Ayotte and the red tide, which will probably be amplified in a state like New Hampshire.

State PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Lean R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Vermont – Patrick Leahy (Democrat) – Leahy is sitting pretty in one of the most democratic states in the nation and only token opposition.  No way he loses.

State PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts – no election

Rhode Island – no election

Connecticut – Open (Democrat) – This seat was one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable until Chris Dodd decided to call it quits.  In the open seat race, popular AG Richard Blumenthal has stepped up and is polling great against all Republican opposition, including former representative Rob Simmons and WWE CEO Linda McMahon, who are dueling for the GOP nomination.  Blumenthal doesn’t have a great reputation as a debater or a campaigner, which gives me a little bit of pause, but honestly, unless he completely implodes, I don’t see either republican being able to beat him in a blue state like CT.  Arguably McMahon would have the better shot seeing as she’s got the cash, but she also has a lot of baggage.

State PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New York – Chuck Schumer (Democrat) & Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat) – New York is the one state that has two Senate races this year.  One race is already over before it begins, as Chuck Schumer is probably the safest democratic member of the Senate this cycle.  The other seat held by Kirsten Gillibrand, seems to be a bit more guarded because for whatever reason, a lot of base democrats haven’t gotten behind her.  The Republicans were banking on a big name candidate, either former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani or former governor George Pataki to jump in.  But neither has made the plunge, and Gillibrand is over 50 against the other no namers in the race according to every polling outfit not rhyming with Assmussen.

State PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D & Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold & Solid Dem Hold

Mid-Atlantic Region

New Jersey – no election

Delaware – Open (Democrat) – Now this is a major headache that hardly anybody saw coming at the start of the cycle.  Popular moderate GOP representative Mike Castle decided, at age 70, to run for the Senate, turning this seat from a solid democratic retention to a toss up.  Then the democrats got sucker punched again as presumptive candidate, AG Beau Biden, turned and ran like a scalded dog…err…decided not to get into the race.  Instead, Chris Coons is the democratic candidate.  This is a strong democratic stronghold, and Castle’s recent votes against HCR and other democratic agenda items popular in DE could cost him crossover votes, but ultimately, I think Castle picks this one up easily.

State PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Pickup (1st overall)

National Score – Republican +1

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat) – Now we hit what should be one of our hotly contested races of the cycle.  Arlen Specter, formerly of Team Red, now of Team Blue, is defending the seat against the uber-conservative Pat Toomey.  This race, depending on which polling outfit you believe in, has either Toomey ahead by 5-7 points or Specter ahead 6-8 points.  It’s a good thing the pollster.com line doesn’t follow each data point otherwise it’d be worse than the Dow Jones on crack.  This race also has a monkey wrench in the name of representative Joe Sestak, who is closing in on Specter in the democratic primary race.  If Sestak wins the primary, I’m not sure what effect that would have on the general, but it probably wouldn’t be much.  At any rate, I’m going to assume that Specter gets through to face Toomey.  And if that matchup occurs, I think Specter wins handily.  Why?  Specter is a cold-blooded campaigner that will greatly expose Toomey’s bad attempt at moderation.  Also, Specter defeated Toomey among republican primary voters in 2004.  Do you really expect me to believe that PA as a whole will be more conservative this year than GOP primary voters were 6 years ago?  Not a chance.  Once Toomey is outed as the wingnut he is, Specter will consolidate Dems and win independents outright and win this thing going away.

State PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Lean D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski (Democrat) – Mikulski, who sits in one of the nation’s more democratic states, looks good to go for another term.  The NRSC allegedly tried for months to spread rumors that she was retirement, but now that the filing deadline has passed, they are left to face the music.

State PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Upper South Region

Virginia – no election

West Virginia – no election

Kentucky – Open (Republican) – This seat was the Republicans’ version of Connecticut, as unpopular senator Jim Bunning was imploding.  But like Chris Dodd, he jumped out, and now the open seat is the site of not one, but two contested primaries.  On the republican side, establishment favorite SOS Trey Grayson faces outsider fave Rand Paul.  Much to the chagrin of the national GOP and the NRCC, it appears that Paul is headed to victory.  On the democratic side, the outcome is much less clear.  2004 senate candidate and Lt. Gov Daniel Mongiardo faces off with state AG Jack Conway.  This race is close, with most polls putting Mongiardo ahead in the single digits.  Conway is without a doubt the better general election candidate.  I can’t really put a finger on the outcome without knowing who the Dem candidate will be, but since Mongiardo has the advantage currently, I don’t like Team Blue’s chances.  If Conway beats him the race will move in the Dem direction, probably to Toss Up.

State PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Tennessee – no election

North Carolina – Richard Burr (Republican) – Now we get to North Carolina, home of perhaps the nation’s most anonymous senator, Richard Burr.  He consistently gets 30% or so that don’t even have an opinion of him in polls, and recent data shows that he’s only up 6-9 points on his democratic challengers.  Speaking of the democratic primary, SOS Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham are heading to a runoff election next month.  All general election polls I have seen don’t seem to suggest one candidate is more electable than the other.  This race is one in which the national environment matters a lot because the electorate doesn’t know the candidates as well as the R or D next to their name.  For now, I see Burr getting by, but if the economy improves and health care benefits start trickling in, upping the popularity of HCR, either Marshall or Cunningham has a great shot due to the recent leftward turn of the state and the strong local operation of the NC Democratic Party.

State PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Lean R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Deep South Atlantic Region

South Carolina – Jim Demint (Republican) – Demint is the most conservative member of the Senate, and while the Democrats would certainly like to knock him off, this is a tough state to do so, and an even tougher year in which to accomplish it.  Plus, their candidates are weak.  Demint is safe.

State PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia – Johnny Isakson (Republican) – This seat was a huge recruiting fail for the Democrats for most of the cycle as Isakson has been sporting poor favorables in most public polling.  Michael Thurmond (I think? Race tracker Wiki doesn’t even list him) has stepped forward for Team Blue, giving them a strong elected official to run against Isakson.  Admittedly I don’t know a whole heck of a lot about this race, but I think that it will be hard for Thurmond to replicate the Obama coalition of 2008 that nearly put Jim Martin over the top, namely because minority turnout is likely to be way down.  In a southern state like Georgia, that’s usually death, and unfortunately, I think it’s the primary reason why the underwhelming Isakson will roll on through without much difficulty.

State PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Florida – Open (Republican) – Now this is a fun race.  What looked to be a done deal for the GOP months ago when governor Charlie Crist announced his candidacy descended into a brutal primary, then another sure thing with upstart Marco Rubio, and finally now into a triple threat match where anything could happen.  Rubio, the republican candidate, is running as the true conservative in the race.  Kendrick Meek, the democratic candidate, is the unabashed liberal that stood in even when the race looked impossible.  And in the middle is Crist, running as an independent and pretty much picking and choosing positions that might get him elected.  Needless to say, this is a hard, hard race to call, much more so than a typical toss up race.  There’s an argument to be made that any of the three could conceivably win, but I’m going with Crist because for whatever reason, base democrats either don’t know Meek or are lukewarm about him.  My guess at this point is that Crist is still very popular among unaffiliated voters, and if he can eat into democrats because of Meek’s lack of name recognition, that will be more than enough to win.  It’ll be very interesting to see how this one plays out.

State PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Ind Pickup

National Score – Republican +.5

Eastern US Recap – So far, we have 2 seats turning over.  Mike Castle’s win in Delaware turns that seat from blue to red, and Charlie Crist’s win in Florida makes that seat go from red to independent green.  Since we don’t know who Crist would caucus with, if he caucuses at all, the Republicans lose .5 of a seat there, giving them an advantage of .5 seats so far.  

In the next edition, we head into the Central US, where competitive races in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri dominate the narrative.

So it’s not exactly a secret that most Americans don’t have a positive view of Congress.  Recent polling is showing approval in the twenties, with strong disapproval over 50%.  Some have called for the complete and utter overhaul of the legislative bodies.  

Which is why I make the following modest  proposal.

Why don’t we replace all 100 members of the Senate with celebrities and famous people?  That oughta reduce the bickering and get stuff done right?  Yes, in this diary, that is exactly what I’m going to do.  

Now of course, there are some minor rule changes, like the constitutional age limit.  I’ve done away with that, and since most celebrities live in a cluster of a few states and big cities mostly, when necessary we will also use their childhood homes and birth states as a substitute for proper residency.  In general, I have aligned the partisan breakdown for electability reasons, though there are some senators that are questionable.  They’ll probably jump out at you as we go along.  

Some celebrities are very outspoken about politics, while others are not.  I had to do a lot of digging, and even some guesswork on some of them.  If you notice I’ve gotten one wrong, be sure to point it out in the comments.  I have compiled below, what I think is a 57 Democrat, 41 Republican, 2 Independent body, just like the Senate we have today.  Enjoy!

Maine – Stephen King (D-Portland), Joan Benoit (R-Cape Elizabeth) – Maine is a somewhat democratic state but is one that likes moderate republicans, particularly those that are female.  But I think a liberal can win here.  Stephen King, the extraordinary author, is an outspoken liberal that supports most mainstream Dem positions.  Joan Benoit, the 1984 olympic marathon champion, her views are a little tougher to uncover, but I think she’s a moderate that would probably caucus with the R’s.  She’d be a gettable vote on many issues though, similar to Olympia Snowe.

New Hampshire – Seth Meyers (D-Bedford), Sarah Silverman (D-Bedford) – New Hampshire, in particular the town of Bedford, is very big on comedic talent.  The state’s leftward lean lately makes it possible that 2 democrats could take the delegation, and who better than Meyers and Silverman, who are both liberal stalwarts.  Silverman is jewish as well, which helps balance religious demographics.

Vermont – Jim Cantore (D-White River Junction), Lindsey Jacobellis (D-Stratton) – I had to do some digging on this one, as there is a fair lack of famous people from Vermont.  Jim Cantore, the famed meteorologist of the Weather Channel, known by some in hurricane alley as “the angel of death” whenever he shows up on their coast, is a solid choice.  He’s a bit moderate by Vermont standards, but fairly reliable.  I went with snowboarder & winter Olympian Lindsey Jacobellis on the other seat, and she’s pretty much a down the line vote on everything democratic.

Massachusetts – Conan O’Brien (D-Brookline), Uma Thurman (D-Boston) – This is probably one of the most liberal delegations in the Senate, as the outspoken O’Brien and the shapely Thurman both bring bonafide liberalism on most all issues.  Really not a shock from a state that, outside of a rather large aberration last January, is extremely liberal.

Rhode Island – John Cafferty (D-Providence), Elisabeth Hasselbeck (R-Cranston) – I had a bit of trouble with this state, as there is a notable lack of famous people from RI.  Here the republicans pick up one of their most conservative voices from an unusual spot.  Hasselbeck, who once made the final 4 on Survivor, is extremely conservative.  She’s rather outspoken too, she’d probably be the Michelle Bachmann of the group.  I was very close to declaring her unelectable, but with the huge lack of available candidates I let it go. John Cafferty, who is a personal friend of Bruce Springsteen and shares his love of music, is nearly as liberal as Hasselbeck is conservative, necessary in a blue state like RI.

Connecticut – Paul Levesque (R-Greenwich), Seth McFarlane (D-Kent) – With CT being home to World Wrestling Entertainment, I go to the wrassling well and come up with Paul Levesque, better known as Triple H.  Probably the most politically astute member of WWE aside from John Bradshaw Layfield and Mick Foley, Levesque would be fairly conservative for this state but might be gettable on labor and working class issues due to WWE’s horrific record there.  Seth McFarlane, the creator of Family Guy, is a down the line liberal vote, one of the most liberal in the democratic caucus.

New York – Barbara Streisand (D-Brooklyn), Jennifer Lopez (D-Manhattan) – Streisand, one of the older members of the Senate, is a huge supporter of minorities and most things democratic.  She hails from the NYC area and would be hugely popular with just about everybody there.  I wanted to throw a younger person in to balance the delegation out, and J-Lo certainly fits that bill.  As a Hispanic, she holds a seat for a minority group that I had some trouble with filling seats in this legislative body.

New Jersey – Bruce Springsteen (D-Asbury Park), Jon Bon Jovi (D-Perth Amboy) -This state was easy.  Bruce is one of music’s most famous people, and he’s an outspoken democrat and fighter for the working class.  He’d be a great voice in the Senate, and in this group would likely be right up there in the voting for majority leader.  Jon Bon Jovi is almost a carbon copy of Bruce politically, and would be virtually identical in his voting record.

Pennsylvania – Taylor Swift (I-Wyomissing), Will Smith (D-Philadelphia) – Now this is a cool, hip pairing indeed.  Taylor Swift, the 2nd youngest member of the Senate, is about as apolitical as they come and probably is still just feeling her way out as far as her political beliefs go.  I didn’t find any leanings in my research, so she enters the body as an Independent, which is fine since she hails from swingy Berks County anyway.  Will Smith on the other hand, is a staunch liberal voice hailing from the most liberal part of the state.  The actor/musician was a strong supporter of Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign.

Maryland – Michael Phelps (D-Baltimore), Tom Clancy (R-Baltimore) – Arguably one of the most popular figures in Maryland, Phelps really keeps his leanings close to the vest and seems somewhat detached from the political process.  Yet from what I have researched it seems that he leans democrat.   How far he leans, that I don’t know.  My guess is that he could be somewhat independent/blue dog-ish.  The other  seat goes to author Tom Clancy, who is an outspoken conservative.  Like fellow northeastern conservative hawk Elizabeth Hasselbeck, he barely skirts the line of electability.  Arguably this is a bad delegation politically for MD, probably one of the least representative in the body.

Delaware – Johnny Weir (D-Newark), Valerie Bertinelli (D-Wilmington) – Admittedly, there are a bunch of Olympians in the Senate, but let’s face it, Weir is a character.  Although he’s never come out about it, he’s probably in the LGBT crowd, an obviously underrepresented group of American society.  Politically, he matches the state, as does the other senator, actress Valerie Bertinelli.  Bertinelli contributed to Barack Obama’s 08 campaign and should be a down the line vote.

Virginia – Dave Matthews (D-Charlottesville), Sandra Bullock (R-Arlington) – Here’s a fairly diverse and mixed pairing in a decidedly purple state.  Matthews, an outspoken yet calm liberal voice, hails from the liberal hub of Charlottesville, while Bullock is from another liberal bastion, Arlington.  The latter though, is generally wary of big government, which likely puts her into the R caucus despite her dedication to charitable causes and helping those in need.  Yep, I can hear the chants of “RINO!” already.

North Carolina – Chris Paul (D-Winston-Salem), Jim Nantz (R-Charlotte) – Basketball is huge in North Carolina, so this delegation makes a lot of sense.  Paul, the star point guard for the Hornets who is from NC and went to college there (at Wake Forest) is a solid liberal vote in a state with a large black population.  The other senator, legendary CBS announcer Jim Nantz, will bring his rather eloquent tone to the legislative body.  He’s fairly conservative though, which balances the NC ticket.

South Carolina – Stephen Colbert (D-Charleston), Vanna White (R-Myrtle Beach) – South Carolina is very conservative, but if any democrat can penetrate it, it’s Colbert.  Hugely popular because of his nightly television program, he’s perfect for this.  The other seat goes to Vanna White, the mistress of the puzzleboard on Wheel of Fortune.  GOPers, you’re going to be sick of this by the end, Vanna is another of those pesky moderate female senators.

Georgia – Jeff Foxworthy (R-Atlanta), Herschel Walker (R-Wrightsville) – Probably one of the most conservative stalwarts in the Senate, comedian and show-host Foxworthy is a self-proclaimed redneck, and is noted for his place on the Blue Collar Comedy tour.  He probably would be a good candidate for minority whip.  The other seat goes to football star turned MMA freak Herschel Walker.  He’s a conservative African American, which in this day in age is almost an oxymoron.  The GOP caucus is really getting a makeover!

Florida – Chris Evert (R-Boca Raton), Hulk Hogan (D-Tampa) – One of my goals here in compiling this list was to increase the amount of women and minorities in the republican caucus.  Former tennis star Chris Evert fits that bill.  As with many women republicans she would probably stray on women’s rights issues and certain social issues, but elsewhere she’d be a down the line vote.  The other seat goes to none other than Hulk Hogan, who much to my surprise, is actually a democrat.  With the support of all those Hulkamaniacs, he’d be fit for a leadership position in the Dem caucus I think.

Alabama – Charles Barkley (R-Leeds), Nick Saban (R-Tuscaloosa) – This is another obvious pick, on both accounts.  There is some concern that Charles could be a party switcher, as he’s really mavericky in nature.  He would certainly give us some great soundbites at least.  In return for Charles’s craziness, the other seat is held by a down the line conservative, Alabama head football coach Nick Saban.  One of the most popular figures in the state, Saban would be one of the body’s most conservative members.

Mississippi – Brett Favre (R-Kiln), Britney Spears (R-McComb) – Talk about a pair of divas.  Mississippi’s delegation is anchored by two conservative voices.  Favre, I could’ve conceivably put in two other states, but he goes here for electability reasons, as something tells me that he wouldn’t be welcome in either Wisconsin or Minnesota.  My guess is that both Favre and Spears would be solid conservative votes on most issues.

Tennessee – Hank Williams Jr. (R-Memphis), Miley Cyrus (I-Nashville) – Tennessee is a conservative state in general, and the Senate gets one of it’s most politically astute and conservative voices in Hank Williams Jr.  The country singer of Monday Night Football fame was a huge supporter of John McCain’s candidacy and would be extremely conservative.  In the other seat we have Miley Cyrus, the body’s 2nd Independent as well as the youngest member of the Senate.  For some reason I really thought Miley was republican, but actually she’s about the least political person in the whole world.  Come to think of it, she might really hate this job.  Maybe it’s not too late to get Billy Ray on the hotline?

Kentucky – George Clooney (D-Lexington), Ashley Judd (D-Ashland) – Who would have ever thought that one of the most liberal delegations in the Senate would come from Kentucky?  Actor George Clooney hails from liberal Lexington and is a fervent supporter of democratic candidates.  Ashley Judd, who holds the other seat, is pretty much a down the line liberal as well.  I’m not sure this is realistic, but in KY, they pretty much support democrats unless their last name is Obama, so we’re good.

West Virginia – Lou Holtz (R-Follansbee), Jennifer Garner (D-Charleston) – Here’s a balanced delegation for WV.  Lou Holtz, former college football coach, was actually recruited to run for Congress by the NRCC earlier this year.  He’d represent the older, white man part of the GOP delegation.  The other seat is held by actress Jennifer Garner.  She’s a fairly outspoken liberal, although I think I’m still looking for this Senate’s Alan Grayson to go up against Elizabeth Hasselbeck.

Ohio – Lebron James (D-Akron), Jim Tressel (R-Columbus) – Ohio is a big sports state, and who better to lead the delegation than King James of the Cavaliers, who is probably one of the most liberal senators.  He’s a major proponent of social programs and a fighter for the lower class, particularly minorities.  The other senator is Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel.  A smart, very astute man, Tressel would be a reliable republican vote most of the time but would side with Dems on some of the common sense items, a la George Voinovich.

Michigan – Marshall Mathers (D-Detroit), Madonna Ciccone (D-Bay City) – After trudging through many states, we reach the Democrats’ resident loudmouth.  Mathers, better known as Eminem, is a full-out liberal and is quite outspoken about it.  He also comes from a place that is rather angry in general.  In the other seat is another progressive voice, Madonna, who surprisingly hails from the northern part of the state to give Michigan a delegation that is at least geographically balanced.

Indiana – John Mellencamp (D-Seymour), Peyton Manning (R-Indianapolis) – Like New Jersey, I had to start Indiana off with its prominent musical voice.  Mellencamp was actually mentioned in some circles to succeed Evan Bayh this year, and for this state his views are quite liberal actually.  But his immense popularity I think would allow him some leeway.  Now the other seat isn’t even a question.  Peyton Manning, quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, would take this one to the house easily.  Politically he’s pretty much in line with the state as well.

Illinois – Oprah Winfrey (D-Chicago), Eddie Vedder (D-Evanston) – Another liberal state, and another set of down the line progressive votes.  Oprah is probably one of the most progressive members of the Senate, although like Barack Obama can be a bit of a pragmatist as well.  I wanted to get a downstate resident in the other seat but that meant a republican, which is unrealistic, so Eddie Vedder, the lead singer of Pearl Jam gets the other seat.  He’s slightly more moderate than Winfrey, but still quite acceptable for Illinois.

Wisconsin – Frank Caliendo (D-Waukesha), Danica Patrick (D-Beloit) – The Badger State has one of my favorite delegations in the Senate.  The first seat is held by comedian Frank Caliendo, who could probably impersonate just about anybody else on this list.  His politics are very liberal.  The other seat is taken by race car driver Danica Patrick.  A generally apolitical yet outspoken person, Danica would really frustrate the democratic leadership.  It’s probable that she would be a member of the Blue Dog Caucus.

Minnesota – Vince Vaughn (R-Minneapolis), Jessica Biel (D-Ely) – Actor Vince Vaughn’s inclusion means that the Republicans avoid being totally shut out in the Upper Midwest.  A down the line conservative, Vaughn would likely be one of the strong voices of the Republican delegation, and perhaps a candidate for the leadership.  The other seat is taken by Jessica Biel, who is about as liberal as Vaughn is conservative.  Coming from the rural part of the state it’s interesting how she’d be viewed by urban DFLers, who would be without one of their own.  

Iowa – Ashton Kutcher (D-Cedar Rapids), Shawn Johnson (D-Des Moines) – Now here’s a guy that might surprise you politically.  Kutcher, of Punk’d fame, is an unabashed social liberal but would undoubtedly be a blue dog because he is also a fiscal conservative.  Really that’s not a bad mix for a purple state like Iowa.  I planned on having a split R/D setup here, but in a surprise, the 2nd seat goes to Shawn Johnson, gymnast and 4-time medalist in the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  A voice of the younger generation, Johnson would likely be a champion of social tolerance and economic populism.  In 2008, Kutcher and Johnson actually co-sponsored a fundraiser to help victims of flooding in Iowa, so they already have some experience working with one another.

Missouri – Albert Pujols (D-St. Louis), Bob Costas (D-St. Louis) – Here’s another state without geographical or interparty balance, but it was hard to get away from these two.  Pujols, the MVP and world champion slugger for the St. Louis Cardinals, is arguably one of the most popular figures in the state and is the Senate’s 2nd Hispanic member.  He’d be a down the line liberal, but the other senator, broadcaster Bob Costas, would not be.  A largely independent voice, Costas would be one of the more frustrating members of the democratic caucus, but that’s the price you pay to get 2 D’s from Missouri.

Arkansas – Billy Bob Thornton (D-Hot Springs), Maya Angelou (D-Stamps) – This is one of the oldest delegations in the Senate.  Thornton, who has contributed to many democratic candidates in the past, is about as liberal a senator as you could possibly get out of Arkansas these days.  He’d defect on some fiscal issues, but otherwise he’d toe the line.  Writer Maya Angelou is the 2nd seat, and she’d be one of the Senate’s oldest members. Regrettably,  I have concerns about her electability as a black woman in Arkansas, but at her age, she’d probably be a caretaker until the next election cycle.  Oh yeah, she’s very liberal and would be a civil rights and social justice champion.

Louisiana – Ellen Degeneres (D-Metairie), Drew Brees (R-New Orleans) – Alright, now this is quite ridiculous, the idea of an LGBT democratic candidate winning in Louisiana.  We’ll assume that the R candidate had a scandal before the election (not a stretch in LA by a longshot) and that Degeneres will bring her progressive views and her almost militant support for marriage equality to the Senate.  The R’s do get the other seat with the squeaky clean, unbelievably popular quarterback of the New Orleans Saints, Drew Brees.  Unlike the other 2 QBs in the Senate though, Brees is a bit more independent and could stray on some economic and labor issues, most notably because of New Orleans’s recent struggle.

Texas – Beyonce Knowles (R-Houston), Matthew McConaghey (R-Uvalde) – Admittedly, the inclusion of Beyonce is a strange choice because there are few celebs more apolitical than the pop/R&B star.  She’s said to lean republican but officially she’s hid her affiliation quite a vehemently.  My guess is that she’d be an economic conservative but would side with democrats on certain social issues, especially those dealing with equal pay for women or other women’s issues.  The other seat is held by actor Matthew McConaghey, who is an ultra-conservative voice.  He’d be a down the line vote for the R’s on just about everything.

Oklahoma – Chuck Norris (R-Ryan), Phil McGraw (R-Vinita) – Alright, shut down the internet, the race for minority leader is over.  Norris takes it easily, being extremely conservative, from the reddest state in the nation, and being totally kick-ass.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, he’d probably be a good vote-whipper, although certainly his work would be cut out for him with all those girly women running about the R caucus now.  The other seat is taken by Dr. Phil McGraw, the psychologist gone tv celebrity.  He’s conservative, and it’s a good thing, because he better not think about voting against the R’s with Chuck Norris breathing down his neck!

Kansas – Melissa Etheridge (D-Leavenworth), Tom Watson (R-Stilwell) – If you thought the Democratic caucus would get their 2 most prominent LGBT voices from Louisiana and Kansas, raise your hand.  Yup, republican civil war in Kansas strikes again, sending the extremely liberal and openly lesbian Etheridge to the Senate.  The other seat is held by champion golfer Tom Watson, who like most golfers in the pre-Tiger Woods era is fairly conservative, matching the state as a whole.  Still, this one has to sting for the R’s.

Nebraska – Daniel Whitney (R-Omaha), Tom Osbourne (R-Hastings) – Now I’m cheating here as Osbourne is the only member of this body who has actually served in Congress before, representing Nebraska’s 3rd congressional district from 2000-2006.  But he’s arguably still a hugely popular figure in the state.  Daniel Whitney, also known as Larry the Cable Guy, is one of those “redneck comedians”, and would also be a staunchly conservative vote.

South Dakota – Brock Lesnar (R-Webster), Tom Brokaw (D-Webster) – I never thought I would get such a high-profile delegation from South Dakota, but here it is.  Brokaw, the former anchor of NBC Nightly News, leans democratic but has a bit of an independent streak to him as well.  I’m not sure exactly how he would vote, if he’d be a down the liner or a blue dog type.  Former WWE superstar and current MMA champion Brock Lesnar holds the other seat.  His brash, tough persona would be tough even for Chuck Norris to handle, err, maybe not.  But he’d be an intimidating minority whip!

North Dakota – Phil Jackson (D-Williston), Ed Schultz (D-Fargo) – 9-time NBA world champion coach Phil Jackson leads off an all-democratic delegation in ND.  He’d be a rather calming voice to a lot of the more serious debate thanks to his reliance on meditation and zen.  The other seat is taken by Ed Schultz, who was asked to run against John Hoeven this year.  

Montana – Brent Musberger (R-Billings), Levi Leipheimer (R-Butte) – Here’s a very unsightly delegation, all republican and not very visible as I had a very tough time picking out famous people from MT.  Announcer Brent Musberger, who is a very pompous and outspoken type, should be a perfect fit in the republican caucus.  Champion cyclist Levi Leipheimer is the other representative, and while he is usually conservative, he’d be gettable on issues dealing with the environment and transportation.

Wyoming – Harrison Ford (D-Jackson Hole), Rulon Gardner (R-Afton) – What’s that you say, a democrat from Wyoming?  Yup.  Ford, who retains a residence in Jackson Hole even to this day, would bring a strong liberal streak to one of the nation’s most conservative states.  It’s plausible given Dave Freudenthal’s reign as governor and the R’s difficulty in holding Wyoming’s house seat.  The other seat goes to champion wrestler and all-around lucky bastard, Rulon Gardner.  After his travails, including surviving for days in biting cold pinned under heavy rocks, this should be easy for him.

Colorado – John Elway (R-Aurora), Lindsey Vonn (D-Vail) – The Super Bowl Champion ex-quarterback of the Broncos, Elway is a very outspoken conservative but hugely popular in Colorado.  He’d probably be in the running for minority leader as his business success would be a positive.  The other seat goes to Olympic skier Lindsey Vonn, who was gold medalist in the 2010 downhill competition.  Vonn is one of those surly types that would probably defect depending on the issue, as she is hugely independent in nature.  Definitely a blue dog.

New Mexico – Demi Moore (D-Roswell), Brian Urlacher (R-Lovington) – New Mexico was disappointing as I wanted to get some minority representation here, but instead, the seats are held by actress Demi Moore and football linebacker Brian Urlacher.  Moore would be a staunch liberal, but Urlacher would be a staunch conservative.  I almost labeled him as unelectable in NM, but with others like Ellen Degeneres and Melissa Etheridge getting through, his election doesn’t sound quite so implausible in a state that wasn’t solid blue until recently.

Arizona – Phil Mickelson (R-Tempe), Steven Spielberg (D-Scottsdale) – Now this is a cool delegation.  Mickelson, the golfing champion who is perhaps one of the most beloved sports figures in the nation, would quite literally represent the family values wing of the GOP.  Director Steven Spielberg holds the other seat and would be about as liberal as Mickelson is conservative.

Utah – Karl Malone (R-Salt Lake City), Steve Young (R-Provo) – Not a bad idea to go with two sporting legends here in UT, and both are extremely conservative.  Malone, star forward for the Utah Jazz all those years, would add yet another minority member to the GOP caucus, and Young would vie for the title of most conservative member of the Senate.  It’s unlikely that either of these guys would get Bob Bennetted at a convention.

Nevada – Andre Agassi (D-Las Vegas), Jenna Jameson (D-Las Vegas) – Who cares about balance?  This is Nevada!  When you have the chance to assemble the most illicit delegation in the nation, you put all your chips on red and hope the wheel stops on your color!  Agassi, the former tennis star, brings a buoyant personality and a surprisingly liberal outlook from a sport that usually breeds conservatism.  The other seat is taken by Jenna Jameson, who earned her keep through even more questionable means.  Not surprisingly, she’d be one of the Senate’s most liberal members.  

California – Kevin Costner (D-Lynwood), Julie Foudy (R-San Diego) – This is a bitter pill for Democrats, to not have both seats in CA.  Foudy, one of the members of the U.S. women’s soccer team when they won world cups last decade and now a reporter for ESPN, would be highly respected but very conservative.  Unlike fellow white woman GOPer Elisabeth Hasselbeck though, Foudy tends to be more quiet and reserved about her politics, making it likely she can slip by in CA.  The other senator comes from the Hollywood wing of the state, actor Kevin Costner.  A frequent donator to Democratic campaigns and politically astute, Costner would make a strong run at majority leader I think.

Idaho – Lou Dobbs (R-Rupert), Chris Peterson (R-Boise) – News anchor Lou Dobbs leads off an all-republican delegation in ID, and though he claims to be independent, he has contributed major money in the past to GOPers, meaning that he’s probably sufficiently conservative for this uber-red state.  Boise State head coach Chris Peterson, arguably the most popular figure in the state, is the other senator.  Like Dobbs, he’s very conservative in nature.

Oregon – Matt Groening (D-Portland), Tonya Harding (R-Portland) – Cartoonist and television producer Matt Groening is a staunch liberal, one of the most liberal senators overall.  Tonya Harding, on the other hand, would be a conservative blowhard on the fringes of electability.  It’s a delegation pretty suitable for OR, which has very liberal democrats and very conservative republicans, with very few moderates.

Washington – Ken Jennings (D-Redmond), Apolo Anton Ohno (D-Federal Way) – Washington is one of the more liberal states, and here we have a democratic pair, led off by quiz show kingpin Ken Jennings.  Once pressed to run for Senate in Utah, where he used to live, Jennings would be a natural choice for majority leader or majority whip because of his smarts.  Olympic short track skater Apolo Anton Ohno holds the other seat, and like Jennings, he brings a spate of liberal views to the table.  He also makes the list as the only Asian-American in the body.

Alaska – Curt Schilling (R-Anchorage), Valerie Plame (D-Anchorage) – I had no idea Curt Schilling was actually from Alaska.  His conservative views would be perfect for such a state, so in he goes.  AK’s other seat goes to outed CIA spy turned writer Valerie Plame.  A former conservative, Plame now considers herself a democrat, though she would be far from a down the line vote.

Hawaii – Nicole Kidman (D-Honolulu), Bethany Hamilton (D-Tunnels Beach) – We finish out the Senate in the Pacific Ocean, and with two democrats.  Kidman, who is actually a duel citizen of the U.S and Austrailia on the basis that she was born in Hawaii, would be largely viewed as a carpetbagger, but her liberal politics would play very well on the islands.  The final seat in the Senate goes to surfer Bethany Hamilton, who once had her arm eaten by a shark, only to come back and become a surfing champion by beating everybody with one arm.  She would be a champion for the rights of Americans with disabilities and with degenerative illnesses and injuries.

So there you have it.  57 democrats, 41 republicans, 2 independents, and a legislative body that we can all be proud of.  At least until the first after-work party.  

Welcome back to StephenCLE’s 2010 House Rankings.  In this post, my April ratings update, we’ll look back through the whole list of rankings, with special emphasis on 22 races in which I had a rankings change for this month.  

Again, at present the Democrats control 257 seats, and the Republicans have 178, not counting the few seats that are open due to special elections.  Team Red will have to take 40 seats to retake control of the House of Representatives, which I feel is an arduous task given the relatively low amount of open seats on the board.  Still, with the environment in their favor, the GOP will probably do well this year.

Again, as I mentioned, I have changed the rankings on 22 seats this month.  Here they are, along with the explanation for why the ratings were moved.

1.Michigan-1 – Solid Democrat to Toss Up – Bart Stupak’s retirement puts into play a swing seat that is sure to get a lot of attention on both sides of the aisle.  MI-1 stretches over the upper peninsula and northern lower peninsula and has a PVI of R+3.  Obama won here 50-48 in 2008.  This is an unfortunate development for Team Blue, but with filing deadlines already passed in some states and fast approaching in others, we probably won’t see much more of this.

2.Hawaii-1 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – If I were rating this based on the upcoming special election, I would have it at toss up, as the free-for-all between Ed Case, Charles Djou, and Colleen Hanabusa is a bonafide triple threat match.  I move the November rating to Lean based on the idea that if Djou wins, he’ll have the advantage of incumbency and a favorable environment.  If one of the dems win though, this probably comes off the board.

3.Colorado-3 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – It looks as though Colorado is going to be a big battleground state in 2010 both for governor and senate.  That’s going to bring out partisans on both sides of the aisle, and in this R+5 district, that’s bad news for John Salazar.  The only poll I’ve seen thus far has Salazar ahead by mid single digits.

4.South Dakota-1 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Things are happening in the Dakotas, and it appears a full-out republican revolution could be unfolding there.  It’s more pronounced in North Dakota will John Hoeven ready to claim the senate seat there, but it appears that Herseth-Sandlin’s position isn’t unassailable either.  Rassmussen had her only up 2 on Chris Nelson at last check, although it is Rass, so I don’t know much I can trust that.  Still, it’s enough to move the rating.

5.Illinois-11 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Recent polling has shown Debbie Halvorson struggling, which is enough to move this rating down to Lean.

6.Ohio-10 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – Now that Dennis Kucinich has done the smart thing and voted for HCR, the prospect of Democrats staying home and letting him lose is just about dead.  Thus, I take this one off the board.

7.Massachusetts-4 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I had this one at Likely based on the prospect that perhaps Barney Frank would be calling it quits, but it appears that isn’t the case, so it moves off the board.

8.California-25 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – This was the same deal as Massachusetts-4, where I wasn’t sure if Buck McKeon was leaning toward retirement or not.  Evidently that’s not the case, so this district moves off the board.

9.North Dakota-1 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Earl Pomeroy appears to be in real danger now, as he’s trailing outside of the margin of error according to Rassmussen (again, big grain of salt considering the messenger).  Still, with the powerful Hoeven leading the ticket, this is going to be a fight for sure.  Pomeroy’s vote in favor of HCR isn’t going to do him any favors in this R+10 district.

10.Florida-24 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Much like Earl Pomeroy, Suzanne Kosmas casted a tough vote in favor of HCR in a district laden with seniors that probably doesn’t think too highly of the legislation.  I haven’t seen any polling here yet, but I have a feeling that the FL Dem delegation is feeling the heat right now.

11.Maine-1 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – My gut instinct still tells me this seat is vulnerable, but I’ve been hearing from New England’s SSPers that Chellie Pingree’s GOP opponent is a real whack-job.  If that’s the case, then I must move the ranking in the Dem direction.  

12.Massachusetts-10 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Really, I have no idea who’s running here.  The district is D+5, but it’s trending rightward, so I think I underestimated the GOP’s chances a bit in my initial prediction, particularly with the seat open.  

13.Washington-8 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – I think I had Dave Reichert in too tight a straights as well.  The democrat in the race is very capable, but Reichert is generally quite popular, so in a year like this you’d think he has a slight advantage.

14.Florida-25 – Lean Republican to Toss Up – With the democrats landing their #1 candidate in a district that is probably more liberal now than it’s R+5 PVI would suggest, this race is going to be one of the hottest in the nation.  Team Red better come up with a good candidate now.

15.California-50 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – With nobody strong stepping up on Team Blue’s side to face Brian Bilbray, this race is taken off the board.  Bilbray better watch out in redistricting coming up though, along with a lot of California GOPers.

16.Alabama-3 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – This seat is now a shoo-in for Mike Rogers now that Josh Segall has dropped out of the race.  

17.Kentucky-2 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – I know that Brett Guthrie is pretty underwhelming as a politician, but I just can’t see Team Blue picking up a seat this solidly red this cycle.

18.New York-26 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – Maybe I’m moving this one prematurely, but with this being the most red district in New York and lots of contested Dem seats in the state, I think the concern of Team Blue is going to be elsewhere in NY.  

19.Arkansas-1 – Toss Up to Lean Democrat – This is a major GOP recruitment fail, as it appears that the local democratic bench was just too strong.  I expect Team Blue to hold the seat now.

20.Missouri-8 – Likely Republican to Safe Republican – File this one in the same category as KY-2, I know the Dem candidate is pretty strong, but honestly, we’re not picking up R+15 seats this year.

21.South Carolina-5 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – I think John Spratt is in for a very tough fight this year, and I considered moving this one all the way to Toss Up, but polling does show him still with a mid to upper single digit lead.  Still, this is the rural south we’re talking about, so exercise caution.

22.Florida-2 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Boyd is much in the same boat as John Spratt, a district that is fairly tough in the south, although Boyd’s base is somewhat more urban in nature.  I can’t figure voting for HCR did him any favors though.  I’d like to see some polling because honestly I want to move this to toss up but I can’t simply on a whim.

23.Kansas-3 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – The final rating change is in Kansas, where Team Blue is keeping it within the family in an attempt to hold this seat.  It’s certainly better than nothing, as the Dems at least have a shot now.  How good a shot, we might not know for a while, but it’ll be a race.

The National Score

Last month – Republicans +25 seats, Democrats +5 seats – Net Change GOP +20

This month – Republicans +26 seats, Democrats +5 seats – Net Change GOP +21

Republican Pickup List – CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3, ND-1, IA-3, KS-3, AR-2, LA-3, AL-2, MS-1, TX-17, MI-1, MI-7, IN-8, OH-1, VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, MD-1, PA-11, NH-1, NY-24, NY-29

Democratic Pickup List – DE-1, PA-6, IL-10, LA-2, CA-3

There were three seats in which I changed my final calls on this month.  Last month I was calling for a Republican pickup in AR-1, but due to Team Red’s recruitment fail there, I’ve turned that one to a Democratic hold.  In MI-1, Bart Stupak’s retirement in an R-leaning PVI district has moved that seat into the takeover column, canceling out AR-1.  And then we have a change in ND-1, where I now feel that Earl Pomeroy is going to lose re-election.  These moves give Team Red an expected gain of 21 seats if the election were to be held today, making the national score Democrats 236, Republicans 199.

As you can imagine, there are many, many seats that are very, very close on both sides of the cut line, some of which my predictions are no better than flipping a coin.  I would note that compared to most prognosticators, my predictions are slightly more optimistic than average.  I am of the belief that those who are calling for the house to be lost are not investigating each race individually, and when you ask these people to name off seat by seat which ones will be lost, well, it’s hard to come up with a consensus of 40-50 that will be gone.  However, there are many, many more democratic seats in the lean and likely columns compared with the republicans, so it’s possible that things could get much uglier.  I hope it doesn’t.  

Anyway, here’s the big board, and I’ll see you all in the comments, and again next month.    

2010 Big Board: (as of April 14 update)

Safe Dem – 161 seats

Likely Dem – 35 seats

CA-36 (Harman)

CA-47 (Sanchez)

UT-2 (Matheson)

CO-7 (Perlmutter)

NM-1 (Heinrich)

AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick)

AZ-8 (Giffords)

NV-1 (Berkley)

OR-5 (Schrader)

IL-8 (Bean)

WI-7 (Obey)

MN-1 (Walz)

MS-4 (Taylor)

LA-2 (Cao)

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

TX-27 (Ortiz)

IN-2 (Donnelly)

OH-6 (Wilson)

OH-13 (Sutton)

GA-2 (Bishop)

VA-11 (Connolly)

KY-3 (Yarmuth)

NC-8 (Kissell)

NC-11 (Shuler)

NJ-12 (Holt)

DE-1 (Open)

PA-3 (Dahlkemper)

PA-4 (Altmire)

PA-17 (Holden)

RI-1 (Open)

CT-4 (Himes)

NY-4 (McCarthy)

NY-20 (Murphy)

NY-25 (Maffei)

ME-1 (Pingree)

Lean Dem – 25 seats

HI-1 (Open)

CA-11 (McNerney)

AZ-5 (Mitchell)

CO-3 (Salazar)

MO-4 (Skelton)  

SD-1 (Herseth)

AR-1 (Open)

IL-11 (Halvorson)

IL-14 (Foster)

WI-8 (Kagen)

MI-9 (Peters)

OH-16 (Boccieri)

OH-18 (Space)

SC-5 (Spratt)

GA-8 (Marshall)

FL-2 (Boyd)

VA-9 (Boucher)

WV-1 (Mollohan)

KY-6 (Chandler)

NJ-3 (Adler)

PA-8 (Murphy)

PA-10 (Carney)

CT-5 (Murphy)

NY-1 (Bishop)

NY-13 (McMahon)

Toss Up – 36 seats

CA-3 (Lungren)

CO-4 (Markey)

NM-2 (Teague)

NV-3 (Titus)

ID-1 (Minnick)

WA-3 (Open)

ND-1 (Pomeroy)

IA-3 (Boswell)

AL-2 (Bright)

IL-10 (Open)

MS-1 (Childers)

TX-17 (Edwards)

IN-9 (Hill)

MI-1 (Open)

MI-7 (Schauer)

OH-1 (Driehaus)

OH-15 (Kilroy)

FL-8 (Grayson)

FL-22 (Klein)

FL-24 (Kosmas)

FL-25 (Open)

VA-2 (Nye)

VA-5 (Perriello)

TN-4 (Davis)

TN-8 (Open)

MD-1 (Kratovil)

PA-6 (Gerlach)

PA-7 (Open)

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

PA-12 (Open)

NH-1 (Shea-Porter)

NH-2 (Open)

NY-19 (Hall)

NY-23 (Owens)

NY-24 (Arcuri)

MA-10 (Open)

Lean Rep – 13 seats

WA-8 (Reichert)

AZ-3 (Open)

NE-2 (Terry)

KS-3 (Open)

MN-6 (Bachmann)

LA-3 (Open)

IN-8 (Open)

OH-2 (Schmidt)

OH-12 (Tiberi)

SC-2 (Wilson)

FL-12 (Open)

PA-15 (Dent)

NY-29 (Open)

Likely Rep – 19 seats

CA-19 (Open)

CA-44 (Calvert)

CA-45 (Bono Mack)

CA-48 (Campbell)

AK-1 (Young)  

AR-2 (Open)

KS-2 (Jenkins)

KS-4 (Open)

IL-13 (Biggert)

MN-3 (Paulsen)

AL-5 (Griffith)

FL-10 (Young)

TX-32 (Sessions)

MI-3 (Open)

MI-11 (McCotter)

SC-1 (Open)

VA-1 (Wittman)

TN-6 (Open)

NJ-7 (Lance)

Solid Rep – 146 seats