Author: StephenCLE

Welcome one, welcome all to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Ratings.  Today we find ourselves just 5 weeks away from the 2010 midterm elections, and indeed, the battle for the House of Representatives still rages on.  

You may have noticed that the Democrats have gotten a bit of a bounce in the last 2 weeks in the generic ballot and in some individual district polls.  As a result, the ratings changes were a mixed bag this update, some moving rightward, some moving leftward.  The total takeover math changed very little though, in fact it didn’t change at all.  Two seats ended up flipping, Michael Arcuri’s seat in NY-24 went from red to blue, while Patrick Murphy’s seat in Pennsylvania went from blue to red.  This leaves Republicans 10 seats away from taking over the House, just like 2 weeks ago.

One enlightening trend, if you’re a Republican, is that there are still democratic seats moving onto the board from the safe category.  That’s an indication that the national environment is still difficult for the Blue Team, and that democrats usually considered safe are having to work harder than normal.  On the other hand, the fact that the republicans don’t seem to be polling as well as the generic ballot would suggest in the swing districts has to be disheartening.  Many marginal districts that the democrats will have to hold to hold the majority, like that of Harry Teague, Stephanie Herseth, Baron Hill, Lincoln Davis, and Jason Altmire, team blue is polling well in.  Even if the Republicans make inroads to some democratic leaning districts, it’s hard to imagine them winning the majority without winning seats like those I just mentioned.  

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +29

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (34) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – PA-8

Republican to Democrat – NY-24

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+11

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+8

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+2

The Map:

Ratings changes for period September 14-27

1.Washington-9 – Safe D to Likely D – Some polling from SurveyUSA put this as a 5-point race.  While I don’t think this is a great candidate for a  takeover, it’s plausible that given the D+5 PVI that the margin could be in the lower teens or even high single digits, making it a likely race.

2.Pennsylvania-13 – Safe D to Likely D – We’ve seen some rather conflicting data from Pennsylvania in recent days, but one thing that’s relatively certain, dem fortunes in the Philly suburbs have turned downward.  It’s enough that Allyson Schwartz’s seat is probably on the fringes of being in play.  Not a great GOP chance here though.

3.California-18 – Likely D to Lean D – SurveyUSA came out with some polling a ways ago that showed this race in a virtual dead heat.  While that’s not likely, given the fact that Whitman/Fiorina will likely run close or win here (This district is more republican than California as a whole), it’s not implausible that Cardoza could lose.  

4.Colorado-3 – Likely D to Toss Up – One republican that has seen his fortunes rise in recent weeks is Scott Tipton, who is now polling competitively with democrat John Salazar.  What is depressing for democrats is that John Hickenlooper’s impending blowout victory in the governor’s race doesn’t seem to be impacting the downballot much, as the Maes + Tancredo share seems to be chugging along well not only here, but over in CO-4 too, where Betsy Markey is fighting for her life against Cory Gardner.

5.Kentucky-3 – Likely D to Safe D – John Yarmuth has polled extremely well in most surveys taken in KY-3, and with Jack Conway set to obliterate Rand Paul here in the Senate race, I’m taking this district off the board.

6.New York-20 – Likely D to Safe D – This has been one tremendous fail for the NRCC from the very beginning, and on the heels of a poll putting Scott Murphy ahead by 17 points, this one is getting yanked from the board as well.  

7.Rhode Island-1 – Likely D to Safe D – Here’s an open seat contest that looked somewhat interesting at the outset, but with a democratic/democratic independent surge expected in the governor’s race and with a heavy democratic PVI, I don’t see this one as winnable for the GOP at this point.  Safe.

8.West Virginia-1 – Lean D to Toss Up – We haven’t seen any polling here for a while, but with Joe Manchin flagging in the Senate race, it seems as though anti-national-democratic sentiment might be running exceptionally high in West Virginia.  My gut instinct is telling me that the GOP will ultimately pick this seat up, but for now I will wait on polling to corroborate that hunch.

9.Pennsylvania-7 – Toss Up to Lean R – This is perhaps a belated move, and it’s one that I didn’t want to have to make.  I still think there’s a good chance that a late Sestak surge could get Lentz across the line, but there’s no doubting Meehan’s standing as a very solid candidate at a time when the philly burbs seem to be moving rightward.  

10.Texas-17 – Toss Up to Lean R – With Bill Flores taking a fairly sizeable lead in recent polling, I have no choice but to move this seat further into the red column despite Edwards’s past electoral success.  With all statewide offices except maybe the governorship expected to go republican, Edwards is all alone on his island, defending against the massive red tide of rural Texas.

11.Arkansas-1 – Lean R to Toss Up – Chad Causey’s internal polling is still showing him ahead by a point or two.  In all reality that probably means he’s losing, but probably by less than 5, which is enough to make this race a toss-up affair.  I’m still very ambivalent about this race because of how badly Blanche Lincoln is likely to get crushed, but from what I’m hearing, Causey’s campaign has been quite good.

12.Kansas-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – Something strange is going on in Kansas.  It seems as though, despite Brownback and Moran crushing at the top of the ticket, that the democrats are fairing much better in the downballot.  One other house candidate, Raj Goyle, is doing very well in red territory, and everything I’ve read about this race suggests that Stephanie Moore is positioning herself very well too.  Unbelievably we still have no polling on this race, I’d love to see some because I think it’s likely that this race has tightened significantly.

13.California-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – Polling from last week shows that Dan Lungren’s lead has shrunk a bit, but more importantly, that his favorables are slipping.  Given that Ami Bera has led in the cash-on-hand race all the way here and that this district is moving quickly to the left, I’m feeling much better about Bera’s prospects to spring the upset.  Remember that back in the initial picks back in February that I had Bera winning this one.

14.Pennsylvania-16 – Safe R to Likely R – There was a poll earlier this week that showed Joe Pitts in a bit of trouble in PA-16.  I’d ignore it, but numbers like these have been repetitive, so it’s on the board now.

2010 House Big Board (as of September 28 update)

Solid Dem – 152 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 33 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 26 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-18 (Cardoza)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 38 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 17 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Likely Rep – 14 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

StephenCLE’s Senate Rankings for September 17:

Outside of two races in Delaware, the math for the Senate got much more negative within the last month.  7 race ratings changed to the right, only one to the left.  The funny thing is though, the overall pickup numbers haven’t changed at all, with the exception of Florida, which is now back in the republican column.  

Basically, here’s the lay of the land:

Republicans are leading in all of their own seats, although some seats like New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kentucky are just outside of Toss Up range based on the last polling updates.  

In Democratic seats, North Dakota and Arkansas are basically gone.  Indiana looks bad, but not impossible.  Pennsylvania isn’t looking great, but could be a late developer based on the way the race has gone.  Then you have three races that are total, complete coin flips, Nevada, Illinois, and Colorado.  At present, I have Team Blue prevailing in 2 of those.  Really you could flip the call on any of those three, giving the GOP anywhere between 4-7 pickups.  After that, you have California, a race that is barely in the toss up column with Boxer generally leading by 3-4 points.  Wisconsin is a weird one, we haven’t had a non-Rassmussen poll there since July 12th, so my intuition is actually that Feingold is leading, and that those early Rass polls are propping Johnson up.  The last two races on the fringe of what the Republicans can get are Washington and Connecticut, where Team Blue is clearly leading by a bunch.  

The Map:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +5

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Colorado

GOP best case scenario – lose none, pickup ND, AR, IN, PA, CO, NV, IL, CA, WI, CT, WA – 52 republicans, 48 democrats assuming no post-election switches

DEM best case scenario – lose ND, AR, IN, pickup NH, KY, MO, FL, AK – 62 democrats, 38 republicans assuming Crist caucuses with the Democrats

Ratings Changes for August 16-September 16:

1.Pennsylvania – Toss Up to Lean Rep – This is not the way I thought this race would go, at all.  But Pat Toomey has taken the lead on Joe Sestak, actually he took the lead about 2-3 weeks ago.  Sestak appears to be using the same rope-a-dope strategy that he used against Arlen Specter in the primary and unleash a late onslaught.  Given how many races have broken in the final 1-2 weeks throughout the primary season, that’s not a bad idea, but given the implosion of the whole democratic ticket in Pennsylvania, it’s going to be tough to pull off.  Sestak is a good candidate though, he’s proved it already.

2.Ohio – Toss Up to Lean Rep – I considered moving this one straight through to Likely, but the polls don’t quite get that far yet.  Bottom line, the Democrats nominated the wrong candidate here.  Fisher hasn’t done anything, he’s running a horrible campaign, and he’s not doing anything that will drive base turnout here in the Buckeye State.  Again, Rob Portman is on the air, but he’s not flooding the zone by any means.  The way things are going right now, it looks like he’s going to win easily.  The breaking of the Cuyahoga County corruption case is coming at a bad time for Fisher as well.

3.Connecticut – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Richard Blumenthal’s lead here has fallen a bit thanks to a major ad blitz from Linda McMahon.  Ultimately though, Blumenthal is still over 50 and is going up against a very unpopular challenger in a blue state.  I’m not nearly as concerned about this one as many.

4.Kentucky – Toss Up to Lean Rep – I have to move this race into the Lean R column as well, as Rand Paul has been able to STFU, to be quite frank.  Conway has run a pretty good campaign and might have a shot to pull this one out late, but for now Paul inches ahead.

5.Delaware – Likely Rep to Likely Dem – FAIL.  The republicans in Delaware just cost themselves a Senate seat by nominating Christine Odonnell over Mike Castle.  Best idea since boner in sweatpants.

6.Florida – Lean Ind to Lean Rep – What many thought would eventually happen here has happened.  Kendrick Meek got a major bounce following the Democratic primary, while Marco Rubio has shored up republican support as their base is generally in lockstep this cycle.  That has put Rubio into the lead and made things much more difficult for Charlie Crist, who is now getting squeezed on both sides.  

7.North Carolina – Lean Rep to Likely Rep – We’ve seen a lot of really positive numbers lately for republican Richard Burr in his race against Elaine Marshall.  A lot of that is because of the successful ad campaign that Burr is running, involving similar messaging that the DCCC used in 2008.  Sadly, this one seems to be slipping away a bit as well.

8.California – Lean Dem to Toss Up – This is another race that just shocks me.  No way did I think that Carly Failorina would be running so strongly against Barbara Boxer.  Honestly, despite what the polls say, I hardly see a path to victory for Fiorina.  She would have to run a perfect campaign the rest of the way as pretty much all remaining undecideds are either democrats or democratic-leaning independents.  Fiorina’s in a similar situation as Mark Kirk in Illinois, in that she needs to hope for really low democratic turnout to carry her over the finish line.  Boxer’s always had a good GOTV operation, and the presence of Prop 19 on the ballot should help provide coattails for Boxer too.

9.Alaska – Safe Rep to Likely Rep – This is a race to keep an eye on.  Incumbent Lisa Murkowski was knee-capped unexpectedly by Alaska Republicans, giving Joe Miller the nomination.  Immediate post-primary polling shows that democrat Scott McAdams might have an outside shot at turning this seat blue.  We’ll have to watch this one as Miller is running against spending and pork, an issue that he is surely not on the right side of public opinion on in AK.

2010 Senate Big Board (as of September 17)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

New York (Schumer)

Vermont (Leahy)

Maryland (Mikulski)

Oregon (Wyden)

Hawaii (Inouye)

New York (Gillibrand)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

West Virginia (Manchin)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 3 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Washington (Murray)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Toss Up – 4 seats

California (Boxer)

Nevada (Reid)

Colorado (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Lean Rep – 7 seats

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Kentucky (Open)

Missouri (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

Ohio (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Likely Rep – 6 seats

Alaska (Open)

Georgia (Isakson)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Iowa (Grassley)

Louisiana (Vitter)

North Carolina (Burr)

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Arizona (McCain)

South Carolina (Demint)

Alabama (Shelby)

North Dakota (Open)

South Dakota (Thune)

Kansas (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

Utah (Open)

Idaho (Crapo)

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions – September 14

Two weeks ago, I spoke of what I thought was going to be a disconnect between a vastly republican macro-environment and a democratic local environmental advantage.  I think we’re starting to see that in many districts across the country.  The republicans still lead by 6% in the pollster.com regression, suggesting that a huge red wave is still possible.  However, Team Red has received some rather troubling data in many individual districts in the past week or so.  Part of that is because the DCCC is starting to churn out internal polls to contest the huge number of republican polling we’ve seen, but the independent polling has been generally good for Team Blue this week too.  

Another strange trend I’ve noticed in the last two weeks is that, in districts in the likely and safe category, democrats took a beating, and many ratings moved rightward as a result.  But at the margins, in the toss up seats, most democratic candidates improved their position.  Thus, the likely and lean categories on the dem side got bigger this week even as the tossup category became more favorable.  

As a result, many seats moved from one direction to the other this week, but the majority went from red to blue.  I now project that the democrats will drop just 29 seats, the first time the overall number has been below 30 since early July.

As a procedural note, there are now enough districts changing each week that I think I’ll be doing this every week now between now and the election.  I’ll try to keep the updates on Tuesday each week, except for the last one, which will be the night before the election.

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +29

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (34) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – FL-24, PA-10

Republican to Democrat – AL-2, IA-3, NM-2, SD-1, TN-4

2010 Current House Map:

Ratings changes for period September 2-13

1.Iowa-1 – Solid D to Likely D – Polling earlier in the week showed Bruce Braley in a tighter race than I had anticipated.  I was thinking about moving this race last update, but it’s definitely on the board now.

2.Iowa-2 – Solid D to Likely D – This race is a bit more surprising to me as Dave Loebsack is in a more democratic district against a weak opponent, yet polling showed him only up by 8 last week (granted, that was a republican firm’s poll).  Still, it’s enough to put this race onto the board as well.  

3.Massachusetts-5 – Solid D to Likely D – I wonder about this district a bit.  With the governor’s race sure to be close in MA, if there are any sitting congresscritters likely to be in danger, it’s probably Niki Tsongas, who’s never really been prolific in running up win margins.  This is more of a national/state mood move than anything else since we haven’t seen any polling.

4.Maine-2 – Solid D to Likely D – Michael Michaud is a very strong incumbent, but a PPP poll from last week has him up just 9 on his republican challenger.  That’s definitely enough to put the race into the rear view mirror a bit.  I don’t really think he’s overly endangered given the NRCC’s financial situation and his weak opponent, but if the wave is big, you never know.

5.Connecticut-5 – Likely D to Lean D – This is the least democratic district in Connecticut, and republican Sam Caliguri released an internal showing him within 1 of incumbent democrat Murphy.  The poll was a bit stale, but I’ve always thought that this one would be a fight just because of the PVI.  It moves to Lean.

6.Michigan-9 – Likely D to Lean D – With the democratic brand looking as if it looks less appetizing than a sick puppy in Michigan right now, I move this district to lean.  Rick Snyder is almost certain to romp here in the governor’s race, which has me nervous that Peters could get swept under.  We haven’t seen much polling here, so I’ll be on the lookout for one.

7.Washington-2 – Likely D to Toss Up – I’m a bit late to the party on this one, as polling has twice shown that this is a low single digit contest.  Maybe I was overrating just how strong an incumbent Rick Larsen is, but it’s clear that he’s in a tough fight right now.  The senate race is likely to be very close here.

8.Pennsylvania-4 – Lean D to Likely D – Polling for the DCCC shows Jason Altmire way ahead of his republican opponent, and perhaps I should have seen this coming seeing as how the strongest candidate for the GOP, Mary Beth Buchanan, lost badly in the primary.  There seems to be better opportunities for Team Red in the Keystone State.

9.Pennsylvania-8 – Lean D to Toss Up – Murphy vs Fitzpatrick is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the house battle this November.  It’s a case of strong incumbent vs strong challenger in a fairly swingish district.  Grab the popcorn as this one is going to be good.

10.Illinois-11 – Toss Up to Lean R – It’s really gone from bad to worse in a hurry for Debbie Halvorson, who is facing the specter of huge republican coattails in Illinois and an opponent that has been unrelenting.  Adam Kinzinger is looking pretty good at the moment according to most polling data.  

11.South Dakota-1 – Toss Up to Lean D – This race began to turn a bit when news rolled out about Kristi Noem’s horrifically bad driving record.  Herseth-Sandlin, who had been struggling with messaging earlier in the campaign, seems to have been given a gift and now even Rasmussen is showing her ahead, while independent polling has her up by 9.  

12.Tennessee-4 – Toss Up to Lean D – Scott DeJarlais just released an internal poll showing him trailing Lincoln Davis by 4.  I’m curious as to why he would release a poll like that unless he truly was behind, which is why I (rather begrudgingly) move this race to lean.  I still feel that any path to taking the House by Team Red requires this district to flip though.

13.Iowa-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – This race seemed like it was going the wrong way for Team Blue, until some unsightly transgressions in Brad Zaun’s past came to light about two weeks ago.  Since then, polling has been more positive for Leonard Boswell, including a republican firm putting him up by 9 last week.  That poll seems improbable to me, but there’s no doubt that the momentum here has swung.

14.New York-24 – Lean R to Toss Up – Well color me surprised.  This was a race that I thought was virtually gone thanks to Arcuri’s flip-flop on HCR, but maybe that move was actually a good one, as Arcuri surged with independents in the most recent poll of NY-24, which showed him ahead by upper single digits.  I’m still somewhat skeptical given Arcuri’s campaigning skills, but he’s looking better.

15.Florida-12 – Lean R to Toss Up – This is probably the most unlikely toss up race in the nation, a republican leaning seat in Central Florida in which the democratic candidate, Lori Edwards, has been an awful fundraiser.  That being said, Edwards has led in the only two polls I’ve seen here, both democratic internals, and republican candidate Dennis Ross has run a horrible campaign so far.  This could be the upset of the cycle if Edwards is able to pull it off, right now her chances are better than the pundits think.

16.Mississippi-1 – Lean R to Toss Up – A DCCC poll last week put Travis Childers up 4 against republican challenger Alan Nunnelee, which was enough to put this low-information contest into the toss-up column for the time being.  I still don’t feel good about this race, and am looking for independent corroboration of the DCCC poll before moving it out of the red column.

17.Washington-8 – Lean R to Likely R – It appears that Dave Reichert is in better standing for re-election then I thought, as polling last week put him up 13 on challenger Susan Delbene.  This race should probably tighten a bit thanks to Delbene’s huge amount of money, but I don’t like our chances much here now that the senate race looks close.  Delbene’s only path to victory probably involved a Murray rout.

18.Kansas-4 – Likely R to Lean R – Now here’s another unlikely pickup opportunity.  Democrat Raj Goyle has done virtually everything right so far in terms of messaging and fundraising, while Republican Mike Pompeo has been left out in the cold by virtually everybody on the GOP side.  Polling had Goyle trailing by just 3 last week, and while it’s tough to imagine him winning in a year like this, to call this a Safe R race (coughCharlieCookcough) is just plain wrong.

2010 House Big Board (as of September 14 update)

Solid Dem – 151 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 36 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 25 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 36 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

The Ohio State House is one of the most important legislative bodies in terms of the 2010 re-districting season coming up.  With the governor’s race looking iffy for Team Blue, the democrats must hold the majority of seats in the state house in order to ensure a compromise map for congressional redistricting.  

State legislative redistricting in Ohio is based on a 5-seat panel, involving the governor, auditor, secretary of state, state house majority, and state senate majority.  However, congressional redistricting is done via legislature and governor only, thus making keeping the state house of utmost importance, especially if the governorship is lost.

The Democrats currently hold 53 seats in the Ohio State House, to the Republicans’ 46.  The GOP will need to win 4 seats in order to win a majority of seats.  In this diary, I will list the seats of importance in the fight for the statehouse and where I rate them.  This analysis is going on the assumption that John Kasich and Rob Portman are winning the governor’s and senate races somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 points, creating a statewide electorate similar to that of 2000 and 2004.  At present, Kasich is leading by 6-10 points over Ted Strickland in the governor’s race, and Rob Portman is up 4-7 points in the Senate race, although it has been speculated that the governor’s race may actually end up closer because of Strickland’s strong ground operation and Fisher’s lack of cash on hand.

First some eye candy!

Ohio State House District Map by party:

Open Seats:

As with most political races, the open seats are of utmost importance, especially in terms of political geography.  So let’s run those down first.  

1. 13 state representatives faced a primary challenge this spring.  Of these 13, only one was defeated, democrat John Otterman of district 45 (Akron).   However, district 96 (New Philadelphia) was vacated by a democrat in May after the primary, and will be up for grabs as well.

2. 13 state representatives are term limited in 2010.  Those are:

a. Michael Dubose (democrat – district 12 – Warrensville)

b. Michael Skindell (democrat – district 13 – Lakewood)

c. Dan Stewart (democrat – district 25 – Grove City)

d. Edna Brown (democrat – district 48 – Toledo)

e. Scott Oelslager (republican – district 51 – North Canton)

f. Joseph Koziura (democrat – district 56 – Lorain)

g. Sandra Harwood (democrat – district 65 – Warren)

h. Kathleen Chandler (democrat – district 68 – Ravenna)

i. Jeff Wagner (republican – district 81 – Tiffin)

j. David Daniels (republican – district 86 – Wilmington)

k. Clyde Evans (republican – district 87 – Jackson)

l. Todd Book (democrat – district 89 – Portsmouth)

m. John Domenick (democrat – district 95 – Stubenville)

3. 8 state representatives are retiring in 2010.  Those are:

a. Kris Jordan (republican – district 2 – Delaware)

b. Robin Belcher (democrat – district 10 – Cleveland)

c. Josh Mandel (republican – district 17 – Lyndhurst)

d. Kevin Bacon (republican – district 21 – Westerville)

e. Seth Morgan (republican – district 36 – Huber Heights)

f. Joe Walter (democrat – district 47 – Maumee)

g. Jennifer Garrison (democrat – district 93 – Marietta)

h. Richard Hollington (republican – district 98 – Chesterland)

Looking analytically at those 23 open seats, although the democrats are defending 14 of them, most of those are in hugely democratic parts of the state.  Districts 10, 12, and 13 are all in the Cleveland area, and should be easy holds.  Other easy holds should result for district 45 in Akron, district 48 in Toledo, district 56 in Lorain, district 65 in Warren.  The republicans failed to put up a candidate in district 95 in Stubenville, so that seat is safe D also (though it wouldn’t be if it was contested).  District 47 in Maumee isn’t quite as strongly democratic as the others, but I would call it a Likely D hold.  District 25 in southern Franklin county could potentially be interesting, but I call that one a Likely D hold as well.

That leaves 4 democratic held open seats that could be at risk of turning over to the republicans.  The most unlikely of these to turn over is district 68 in Portage County.  This is democratic territory and includes Kent State University, but also includes some more hostile exurban territory in the north and east.  I think this one is Lean D.  Obama still won here in 2008 though.  That leaves the three seats that are in the most danger of falling, district 89 in Portsmouth, district 93 in Marietta, and district 96 in New Philadelphia.  These three seats are all in eastern and southern Ohio, and are trending rightward.  I put districts 89 and 96 at Toss Up, and district 93 at Lean R.  

Now for the 9 republican held seats.  Districts 2, 36, 81, 86, and 87 are all located in republican voting areas, so I will call those safe R.  District 81 southeast of Toledo could be somewhat interesting as Obama moved the needle hugely here in 2008, but it generally votes republican on the local level.  I’ll list this one as Likely R.  District 51 in northern Stark county would be a pickup opportunity, but an extremely strong candidate, former state senator Kirk Schuring, is running for the republicans, so I put that race at Likely R as well.  District 17 in southeast Cuyahoga county is republican leaning, but the democrats had a big surge in turnout in the primary here, so this could be a pickup opportunity.  I put it at Toss Up.  District 21 in northern Franklin County though, is a bona fide pickup opportunity for the democrats as Obama romped here in 2008 and I think even Kerry won it too.  It’s going to come down to candidates and turnout here, so it’s a Toss Up.

Seats with Incumbents:

Now the fun begins.  My analysis with regard to incumbents is relatively simple, and goes mostly by win margin in previous election(s) and partisan voter index, while allowing for local/national voting patterns.

Democratic held seats:

District 18 – This district is in southwest Cuyahoga county, and is held by Democrat Matt Patten, who won an open seat race 51-48 in 2008.  My hometown of Strongsville is in this district, and it leans slightly republican at the local level as well as national.  Patten seems like a strong incumbent, and was the top vote getter in the primary, so I think he’s got a good shot to survive against republican Mike Dovilla.  I rank it as Toss Up.

District 19 – This district runs along the eastern tip of Franklin County, and is gerrymandered to elect a republican, but democrat Marian Harris broke through, winning a 50-49 race in 2008.  Her opponent is a strong one though in republican Anne Gonzales.  The area leans republican both locally and nationally, and with the climate, I rank this one as Lean R.

District 20 – This district is in eastern Franklin county.  Democrat Nancy Garland won here by a 53-47 amount in 2008 over Republican Matt Carle.  Carle is back for a rematch in 2010, and by all indications, this race could be a close one.  I rank this one as a Toss Up.

District 22 – This district is in northwest Franklin county and includes territory that is locally republican but nationally democratic.  Democrat John Carney is the rep here, and he first won this seat in 2006.  He won by 57-43 in 2008, so he may be gaining some entrenchment.  That being said, he’s up for a tough race against republican Angel Rhodes.  I call this one Lean D.

District 24 – This district centers on some richer, ritzier suburbs to the west of Columbus.  Democrat Ted Celeste won this seat back in 2000, but never got fully entrenched.  He won 58-42 in 2008.  Republican Nathan Larger is the republican candidate.  As with district 22, the total republican primary vote was higher than the democratic vote, but that was likely because the Rs had competitive primaries and the D incumbents didn’t.  Still, as with district 22, I rank this one Lean D.

District 28 – This district is based in northeastern Hamilton County, and is a generally conservative area.  Democrat Connie Pillich pulled off a huge upset here in 2006 to win the seat.  She won re-election 54-45 in 2008.  Her opponent is republican Mike Wilson.  Alarmingly, the republican primary vote here was more than twice the democratic turnout, suggesting that minorities and other democratic voting groups that heavily supported Obama in the Cincinnati area might be snoozing.  I give this one a Lean R rating.

District 41 – This district is located in northern and western Summit county, and combines rich, republican suburbs of Cleveland and Akron with more working class, industrial areas.  Democrat Brian Williams is the rep here, he first won in 2004, but only won 54-46 in 2010.  The republican candidate is Lynn Slaby.  Even though this district appears to be swingish and the year is bad, the fact that Williams won in a bad environment before leads me to believe he can do it again.  My rating is Lean D.

District 42 – This district is based in northeastern Summit county in suburban Akron.  The district leans democratic locally and nationally.  Representative Mike Moran, a democrat, won this seat in 2008 by a 56-44 count.  The republican candidate is Kristina Roegner, who from what I’ve heard about her is an extremely formidable candidate.  Despite the district’s lean, I feel that this year, Roegner could pull it off, so this race is a Toss Up.

District 63 – The district is centered on the more rural and exurban eastern part of Lake county, and leans slightly republican for the most part, though it’s definitely contestable most years.  Democrat Mark Schneider won here by a 54-45 count in 2008, which was a nice over performance of the presidential topline.  Still, he’s facing a tough race from republican Ron Young.  I put this race at Toss Up.

District 73 – Now this is a weird one.  Democrat Jay Goyle is the majority whip of the Ohio House, and won his 2008 race by a 65-34 count.  Should be a shoo-in for re-election right?  Wrong.  This district is centered in Richland county, mostly on the Mansfield area, which is generally quite republican.  In fact, no democrats represent any districts touching Goyle’s.  The PVI suggests a takeover, but Goyle didn’t win by big margins and become majority whip by accident.  He’s the Chet Edwards of the Ohio House, if you will.  I start this race at Lean D.

District 80 – This district centers on the Lake Erie coastline.  Democrat Dennis Murray first won this seat in 2008 by a 53-46 margin, which actually was under Obama’s total by a slight amount.  I wonder about his ability to campaign to some degree, but he did receive more votes in the primary than did republican challenger Frank Krabill.  This district seems to be trending leftward, so I start this one out at Lean D.

District 85 – This district is southwest of Columbus and centers on exurban and rural territory that leans quite far to the republicans.  Democrat Raymond Pryor pulled off a huge upset by winning 52-48 in 2008 to win the seat.  Republican Bob Peterson is running strong to knock off Pryor, and looking at the district’s geography, I think he’s got a great shot at doing that.  This is the one seat in the Ohio House that I think is most likely to flip, and I put it at Likely R.

District 91 – This district is an oddly-shaped one in southeast Ohio, and centers on some nationally republican but locally democratic ground.  Democrat Dan Dodd is the rep here, and he won by a 57-42 count in 2008 after initially winning the seat in 2006.  His opponent is republican Bill Hayes, who alarmingly got more votes than Hayes in the primary even though he was facing a primary challenger and Hayes wasn’t.  I don’t know how much to read into that after Hayes’s strong 2008 result and the district’s two-faced voting habits.  This is a tough one to read overall, so I’ll call it a Toss-Up.

District 92 – This district is in southeastern Ohio, and includes some republican friendly territory in Meigs and Morgan counties but is anchored by hugely democratic Athens county, which contains Ohio University.  Democrat Debbie Phillips won an extremely close contest in 2008 by 51-49.  That means that the seat is at least somewhat likely to flip back, especially if students from OU don’t turn out.  Phillips’s situation seems awfully familiar to one of Ohio’s U.S House members, Mary Kilroy.  I rate this at Toss Up.

District 99 – This district is centered in Ashtabula County in the state’s northeast corner.  The territory generally leans democratic, and rep Deborah Newcomb won here by a 56-43 margin in 2008.  Republican Casey Kozlowski is running against her, but I think the GOP has other better targets than this.  I put it at Likely D.  

Republican held seats:

District 16 – This district is in northwestern Cuyahoga County, taking in many of Cleveland’s western suburbs.  Republican rep Nan Baker won by a 51-49 margin here in 2008, and as it turns out, her 2008 opponent, democrat Jennifer Brady, is back for another run at it.  This is a seat that is swingish, and has a decent chance of going blue despite the environment, as evidenced by the total democratic vote way outnumbering the republican vote (although the Rs didn’t have a competitive race, so that’s taken with a grain of salt).  I rank this as a Toss Up race.

District 58 – This district lies in north-central Ohio, mostly in farmland south of the Lake Erie coastline.  Republican rep Terry Boose won this race by a 53-46 count in 2008, and may have some visible weaknesses as a campaigner.  Democrat Gregory Davidson will try to take him out, but this is locally republican territory for the most part, although Obama probably ran even with McCain in 2008.  I start this one out at Lean R.

District 72 – This district is centered on Springfield and the generally more democratic parts of swingy Clark County.  I would guess that Obama probably won here, and it was here that republican Ross McGregor survived by less than 600 votes in 2008.  He has survived some bad environments already, but is facing a tough challenge again from democrat Gregory Krouse.  This area seems to be trending rightward to some degree but is still somewhat democratic at the local level.  I rank this one as Toss Up.

District 75 – This is a republican-leaning district in rural northwest Ohio.  Republican Lynn Wachtmann went unopposed in 2008, but Obama really moved the needle strongly toward the left that year.  I wouldn’t even list this one, except that democrat Cletus Schindler scored more votes than did Wachtmann in the primary and seems to be mounting a pretty serious challenge.  I’m skeptical though, as this area is nearly 100% republican at the local level.  It’s Likely R.

Ohio State House Scoreboard:

Democrat held seats (53 total) – 32 Safe D, 3 Likely D, 6 Lean D, 8 Toss Up, 3 Lean R, 1 Likely R

Republican held seats (46 total) – 38 Safe R, 3 Likely R, 1 Lean R, 4 Toss Up

Total seats (99 total) – 32 Safe D, 3 Likely D, 6 Lean D, 12 Toss Up, 4 Lean R, 5 Likely R, 38 Safe R

Ohio State House Ratings Map:

Assuming I haven’t misfired on any of the 87 races that lean one direction or the other (big, big assumption to make!), that means that Dems will have 41 seats and the Reps will have 47 seats, meaning that the Democrats will have to win 9 of the 12 toss-up seats to retain control of the chamber.  That’s not an impossible task, but it’s a tough one.  At this point, I think the most likely scenario is that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 3-7 seats in the state house, and their chances of a takeover is probably about 60-70%.  That of course assumes that Kasich and Portman win their races by about 4-5%, if they win by more, they could get more seats.  Likewise, if one of them loses, or their win margin is really tight, the democrats could fare well enough to retain control.  

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions – September 2.  

With Labor Day right around the corner and two months remaining in the journey, this update represents the way things stand at the end of the political silly season, and the beginning of the long haul.  We’ve gotten a bit of conflicting data in the last few weeks.  On one hand, the generic ballot looks better for the Republicans than it ever has, they lead by 6% in the pollster.com regression average.  That would suggest that the GOP would be taking over the House easily.  However, in the past two weeks, we’ve also seen a fair amount of positive polls by house democrats in individual districts.  All along, I’ve said that while the macro environment suggests a GOP landslide, the Dems find great advantage at the micro level, running on local issues.  I would also think that the Democrats’ and the DCCC’s money advantage is going to start becoming a factor very soon as well.  For those reasons, the Democrats are still in control of the House majority, but their margin for error is still thin.  Three races changed hands this month, 2 for the red team, 1 for the blue, mostly a result of individual race characteristics and/or statewide polling trends.   Unlike 2 weeks ago, when all the movement was toward the GOP, the rating moves are a mixed bag this update, with plenty on each side.

Before we get to the ratings though, as promised, drum roll please…the house district map in 256-pixel widescreen color!

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +32

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (37) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-11, SC-5, SD-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – CO-4, PA-3

Republican to Democrat – FL-25

Ratings Changes for period 8/15 thru 9/1:

1.Oregon-1 – Safe D to Likely D – There has been some polling evidence, mostly internal, that David Wu could be somewhat endangered.  I’m not sure I believe it, but in times like these, I’ll defer to the numbers and put this one on the board.

2.Colorado-4 – Lean D to Toss Up – Sadly, I think I may have overreacted a bit on this one.  What I forgot to consider is that even if John Hickenlooper romps to victory in the governor’s race, he’ll probably only win here by a few points, not enough to pull Markey over the finish line and especially not with Ken Buck rolling to victory, as this is his base.  Without any polling evidence to suggest Markey isn’t in danger, this one moves back to pure tossup.  

3.Colorado-7 – Likely D to Lean D – With Ryan Frazier releasing an internal showing this race tied, this race moves down into the lean category.  Frazier seems like a decent get for the GOP, and this district isn’t hugely democratic, so it isn’t out of the question that Perlmutter could go down, though the Republican clusterfuck in the governor’s race doesn’t help.  

4.Missouri-3 – Likely D to Safe D – Several polls recently have Russ Carnahan leading big over his GOP opponent, including a 16-point lead by republican outfit We Ask America.  That’s enough for me to take this one off the board for the time being.

5.California-18 – Safe D to Likely D – With the statewide races in California continuing to be close, the prospect of Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina carrying these districts in November has started to surface.  I don’t know if it’s enough to put Cardoza in danger, but it’s enough to put the race on the board.

6.California-20 – Safe D to Likely D – Same deal here for Jim Costa, a republican up-ballot surge in the Central Valley is enough for me to take notice of this seat too.  

7.Arizona-8 – Lean D to Likely D – With unheralded and poor Jesse Kelly taking out the much-stronger Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary, Gabrielle Giffords is looking like a much more sure bet for re-election, especially considering her vast financial resources and campaigning skills.

8.North Carolina-11 – Lean D to Likely D – Heath Shuler has fared very well in polling the last few times out, leading by 10+ points, so this seat shifts leftward into Likely territory.  

9.Texas-23 – Lean D to Toss Up – The republicans really did themselves a favor, nominating a strong, Hispanic candidate in Quico Canseco, who is clearly doing better than expected in the polls.  This is going to be a fight all the way now.

10.Pennsylvania-3 – Toss Up Dem Retention to Toss Up Rep Pickup – This race digusts me.  Kathy Dahlkemper, for a freshman democrat, is a pretty tough cookie, having taken out a 7-term incumbent in 2008 even though Obama only tied McCain in PA-3.  Her opponent is a joke too, in terms of campaigning and fundraising ability.  Yet because Pennsylvania has suddenly morphed into Alabama in terms of it’s polling data, I have no choice but to move this one into the red column.  Hopefully PA voters regain their sanity before November.

11.Washington-3 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Polling last week brought forward what I thought all along, that Jamie Herrera is an extremely solid candidate for the R’s, and that despite Denny Heck’s monetary advantage, he’s facing a smart, charismatic, young, fresh face in a very bad cycle for his team.  Lean R.

12.Florida-12 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – This is another race where fundraising hasn’t matched up with polling at all.  Lori Edwards has been tied or leading in most polls of FL-12, but I’m still very wary of her poor cash on hand total.  Plus, this is a republican-leaning district.  At some point though, you have to go with polling evidence.  One more lead showing Edwards ahead or tied and this goes to toss up.

13.Illinois-10 – Toss Up to Lean Democrat – Several polls now have shown Dan Seals to be leading by 6-10 points over Bob Dold in this open seat contest.  I almost didn’t move this race because of the prospect of humongous republican coattails in Illinois, but at this point, if polling is correct, I think Seals is up enough to survive even a strong downballot tug for Dold.  Lean D.

14.New York-29 – Lean Republican to Likely Republican – I get the general feeling that Team Blue is mailing this one in, seeing as this district will likely be eliminated in redistricting anyhow.

15.Alabama-5 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – Polling last week showed democrat Steven Raby within striking distance.  While I still think this is an unlikely pickup opportunity, democrats will be more energized here than in other parts of the country because of Parker Griffith’s ill-fated party switch.

16.Arizona-3 – With the GOP nominating their worst possible candidate here, he of the last name Quayle, John Hulburd’s chances just got a lot better.  It’s hard to tell what the top of the ballot will be like in Arizona and if it will be strong enough to save Quayle by itself, but we might well have a race here after all.

17.Florida-25 – Toss Up Rep Retention to Toss Up Dem Pickup – This is my boldest change this month, but I don’t think this is going to be a great year for republican asswipes in Florida.  With Rick Scott running atop the ticket and more news coming out about what a jerk David Rivera is, I think Joe Garcia has an excellent chance at winning this seat, enough that if the election were today, I think he’d win.  FL-25 is now colored in blue, making it the 5th dem pickup on my board.

18.Louisiana-3 – Safe Rep to Likely Rep – With the GOP primary heading to an extremely late runoff, maybe there’s a chance that democrat Ravi Sangisetty can get out in front of it and define himself positively and make a run at this before unloading on his opponent right after the runoff.  Unlikely though.

19.Michigan-1 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – A We Ask America survey last week had Benishek way up in this open seat contest, and while I’m skeptical of that survey to some degree, at R+3 in a bad environment, I think this will be a tough hold for the democrats.  Rick Snyder will probably romp here in the governor’s race, which sets up a tough downballot too.

2010 House Big Board (as of September 2 update)

Solid Dem – 156 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 34 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 23 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 33 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 21 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Florida-12 (Open)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

StephenCLE’s Governor Races 2010 Preview –

Current governor breakdown – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

38 seats are up for grabs in 2010

First up, here’s the map:

Now for the wordy roundup of each race (although some aren’t so wordy):

Alabama – Ron Sparks vs Robert Bentley – This is a race that would in a normal year look interesting because of Alabama’s penchant for electing conservative democrats every now and then.  However, with a republican wave set to sweep the nation and the south in particular, I don’t give Sparks much of a chance here.  Bentley by 20 points at least.

Rating – Solid R

Alaska – Sean Parnell vs Ethan Berkowitz – With the Senate race surprisingly haywire a few days ago, a lot of attention has been thrown Alaska’s way, but not for this race.  Parnell is safe.

Rating – Solid R

Arizona – Jan Brewer vs Terry Goddard – Now this is a race that looks interesting and that has had several twists and turns already and could have more down the stretch.  Goddard looked like a shoo-in until Jan Brewer signed the infamous SB 1070, igniting the whole immigration debate once again.  Polls have been mixed, but I feel Brewer is definitely ahead, but this race has the potential to be quite volatile.  It could boil down ultimately to whether Arizona’s immense Hispanic population turns out or not.  

Rating – Lean R

Arkansas – Jim Keet vs Mike Beebe – Unlike the rest of the south region, it looks like Arkansas is a safe haven for popular governor Mike Beebe.  Polls show him leading by 15-20 points right now.  Safe for now, but I could see a scenario where Blanche Lincoln drags down his victory margin if she fails to get 40% in the Senate race.

Rating – Safe D

California – Meg Whitman vs Jerry Brown – This has been a really close race since the start, but a lot of that is because Whitman, former EBay CEO, has absolutely gone crazy with saturating the airwaves, spending tens of millions of her own money.  Former governor Jerry Brown, who is the democratic nominee, hasn’t gone to the advertising well much as of yet.  Hard to tell what will happen in the polls once he does, but I’d think he’d get at least a slight bounce.  Close one right now, I think Brown will win in the end though.  

Rating – Toss Up

Colorado – Dan Maes vs John Hickenlooper vs Tom Tancredo – A total clustereff for the GOP, as their top man, Scott McInnis, got thrown to the curb following news of plagiarism in his past.  The ordeal prompted conservative blowhard Tom Tancredo to run as an independent, and between him and the rather weak GOP candidate, Dan Maes, the right is horrible split.  Unless one or the other collapses at some point, Hickenlooper will walk into office.

Rating – Likely D

Connecticut – Tom Foley vs Dan Malloy – Jodi Rell’s retirement really helped out the democrats here, as their candidate, former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, is holding a big lead over GOP candidate Tom Foley.  That, coupled with the overall lean of the state leads me to believe that this one is almost in the bag.  Malloy would really have to screw up to not win.

Rating – Likely D

Florida – Rick Scott vs Alex Sink vs Bud Chiles – Florida is chock-full of 3-way races this cycle, and with Bud Chiles pulling at least 10% in most polls, I throw him in here, but really the race is between Rick Scott and Alex Sink.  Scott is a rich, teabagging jerkoff that won this seat solely because of his riches, as the much stronger GOP establishment fave, Bill McCollum, got swallowed in negative ads.  Scott’s favorables are in the tank.  Sink, Florida’s CFO, has mostly stayed away from the fray so far, and her favorables are still quite good.  Despite the year and the fickleness of Florida politically, I like Sink right now to win.

Rating – Lean D

Georgia – Nathan Deal vs Roy Barnes – Georgia is a state that in an environment like this should be out of reach to Team Blue.  But the democrats nominated a strong candidate in former governor Roy Barnes, while Team Red went with the ethically-questionable 9th house district rep Nathan Deal.  The candidate strength disparity is keeping this one competitive and I think it’ll be a fight all the way.  In the end I expect the republican surge, and the southern surge in particular (R’s lead by 20+ on the generic ballot in the southeast), to carry Deal across the finish line.

Rating – Toss Up

Hawaii – Duke Aiona vs Neil Abercrombie/Mufi Hannemann – The democratic primary hasn’t been held yet here, but unless things really get ugly between Abercrombie and Hannemann, I expect either will crush Aiona in November.  

Rating – Solid D

Idaho – Butch Otter vs Keith Allred – This race isn’t going to be much worth watching.  Otter should cruise in this hugely red state.

Rating – Solid R

Illinois – Bill Brady vs Pat Quinn – This race to me is a real shocker.  On the GOP side, you have a deeply conservative candidate from downstate that should never, ever, in a million years be elected statewide in Illinois.  Yet it seems that governor Pat Quinn is so universally hated by the masses that he is going to end up losing.  I don’t understand why Quinn is so unpopular, and I want to believe that he can come back and win, but once you get below the SSP-coined “Corzine Line”, it’s very difficult to pull yourself up.

Rating – Lean R

Iowa – Terry Branstad vs Chet Culver – Another Midwestern governor’s race where it appears that the incumbent is so reviled that he has no chance.  Culver isn’t quite as hated as Quinn, but he’s also facing a much tougher opponent in former governor Terry Branstad.  

Rating – Likely R

Kansas – Sam Brownback vs Tom Holland – Blowout city.  Next.

Rating – Solid R

Maine – Paul LePage vs Elizabeth Mitchell – Wait, could you repeat those names again?  That’s the story of the Maine race right now, as neither is well-known.  Supposedly, LePage is too conservative for the state as a whole, but given that state’s past history, I’m somewhat ambivalent.  For now, I’ll stick with the PVI and say that Mitchell is slightly favored.  I haven’t seen any polling here recently either, and most early polling was by Scotty Rass.  

Rating – Toss Up

Maryland – Bob Ehrlich vs Martin O’Malley – Here’s a race that I don’t quite understand.  Martin O’Malley has generally decent, even good, favorables and resides in an extremely blue state.  Yet former governor Bob Ehrlich is within 5 points of him in the polls.  Maryland is an almost impossible state for Team Red, so unless the economy really goes to shit between now and November, I don’t see how Ehrlich can win.  It wouldn’t surprise me if O’Malley started pulling away at some point if his favorables stay +5-+10 where they are now.  

Rating – Lean D

Massachusetts – Charlie Baker vs Deval Patrick vs Tim Cahill – Here’s another three-way, and it was a pretty close one too until the RGA went hard negative against indy Tim Cahill, knocking him down into the teens in the polls.  Deval Patrick is leading by 7-10 points generally, but he’s below 40% in most surveys.  Still, I don’t see MA electing republican senators and governors back to back.  The democratic base may not like Patrick, but nose-holding is practically a pastime in Massachusetts.

Rating – Lean D

Michigan – Rick Snyder vs Virg Bernero – Let me start by saying that I absolutely adore Virg Bernero, I think he’s probably the greatest progressive nominee the Democrats have in the governor’s area this cycle.  But, the bad thing is, he may be too liberal even for Michigan, and he’s going up against a centrist in Rick Snyder.  Polls are showing Snyder way ahead too.  It looks like this is a case of the outgoing governor being so unpopular that it drags down the current nominee.  What a shame.

Rating – Lean R

Minnesota – Tom Emmer vs Mark Dayton – This is the one state in the Midwest that hasn’t seemed to lose it’s democratic leanings, at least as far as governors are concerned.  Former senator Mark Dayton appears to be on pace to take out GOP nominee Tom Emmer by a wide margin.  Better yet, the latter probably won’t be able to eat at a restaurant in Minnesota without having his food spat in for the rest of his life.

Rating – Likely D

Nebraska – Dave Heineman vs Dave Meister – The only question here is, does Heineman feel like becoming a senator?  He’s got it if he wants it in 2012.

Rating – Solid R

Nevada – Brian Sandoval vs Rory Reid – The republicans in NV did themselves a favor by kicking unpopular governor Jim Gibbons to the curb in favor of attorney general Brian Sandoval.  The latter has had a few hiccups on the campaign trail already, but is a huge favorite over Rory Reid, who is probably unpopular solely due to his last name.  

Rating – Likely R

New Hampshire – undetermined vs John Lynch – The republican candidate is yet to be determined in New Hampshire, but incumbent governor John Lynch is doing very well in the polls and has very solid favorables.  Safe, even though NH has turned rightward this cycle.

Rating – Solid D

New Mexico – Susana Martinez vs Diane Denish – This could be one of the closest and most intriguing races of the cycle.  Dona Ana county district attorney Susana Martinez is the republican candidate, her opponent is lieutenant governor Diane Denish.  From what I can tell both of these individuals have good favorables and the campaign thus far has been low key and positive.  Polling is close as well, with most giving Martinez a small lead at the moment.  NM is a democratic state, but the year is republican.  This one’s going to be a tough cookie.

Rating – Toss Up

New York – undetermined vs Andrew Cuomo – The republicans haven’t determined their candidate here yet, but it won’t matter, as popular AG Andrew Cuomo will demolish whoever his opponent is.

Rating – Solid D

Ohio – John Kasich vs Ted Strickland – Here’s another tough race.  Former Lehman Brothers higher-up John Kasich is the republican nominee, and he takes on incumbent Ted Strickland, who breezed to victory 4 years ago.  The environment now is vastly different, and this election so far has centered upon jobs.  The question here is whether or not Ohio voters are willing to pin the blame for Ohio’s economy on Strickland or if they will attribute it more to factors outside of his control.  I’m definitely not as confident about this one as I was two months ago, but it’ll still be a fierce fight all the way.

Rating – Toss Up

Oklahoma – Mary Fallin vs Jari Askins – In a year like this, states like Oklahoma is simply out of the discussion for Team Blue.  It’s a shame, because Askins isn’t half bad as a candidate.

Rating – Solid R

Oregon – Chris Dudley vs John Kitzhaber – This is a race that I can’t quite get a handle on.  John Kitzhaber is a former governor of Oregon, and from polling thus far, is still relatively popular in the state.  Yet, he’s locked in a tight battle against former NBA player Chris Dudley, who from what I know about him has little to no political experience.  That, coupled with the democratic lean of Oregon, makes me to want to give Kitzhaber the advantage, but for now I will defer to the polls.  Of all the toss-ups though, I’m most confident that the democrats will win this one.

Rating – Toss Up

Pennsylvania – Tom Corbett vs Dan Onorato – I don’t know much about Tom Corbett, but apparently he is very popular with the republican base, and more importantly, independents, in Pennsylvania.  He is the sitting attorney general, while his opponent Dan Onorato is Allegheny county executive.  There are two scary things about this race, first off that Pennsylvania, which usually leans democratic, has gotten way away from it’s roots and looks like a likely R state at the moment.  Second, even though Onorato was arguably the best candidate the democrats had at their disposal, he’s still down around 10 points.  Ouch.

Rating – Likely R

Rhode Island – undetermined vs Frank Caprio vs Lincoln Chafee – Here’s another 3-way race, but it’s really a 3INO.  (3-way In Name Only)  The republican has no shot at winning, but polling has been relatively close between democrat Frank Caprio and independent former senator Lincoln Chafee.  The funny thing about this race is, if Chafee wins, he’ll probably be more liberal/progressive than Caprio, so an Ind Pickup is really the same or better as a Dem Pickup here.

Rating – Lean D

South Carolina – Nikki Haley vs Vincent Sheheen – This is a race that looks bad on paper for Team Blue, but has the possibility of getting interesting.  The SC GOP good ole boys clearly had a problem with Haley, and tried to sabotage her on several occasions in the primary, most notably with unsubstantiated allegations of infidelity.  The dem candidate, Vincent Sheheen, is a fairly strong campaigner who will be looking to capitalize on the GOP establishment’s dissatisfaction with Haley.  In a year like this, it’ll be very tough but certainly not impossible.

Rating – Lean R

South Dakota – Dennis Daaguard vs Scott Heidepriem – This won’t be much of a race.  Daaguard big.

Rating – Solid R

Tennessee – Bill Haslam vs Mike McWherter – Ditto for this one.  Haslam to romp.

Rating – Solid R

Texas – Rick Perry vs Bill White – Now this is the one southern governorship (other than perhaps Georgia, I don’t consider Florida southern persay) that has a chance of going red to blue.  Rick Perry is an extremely unpopular incumbent, probably similar to Chet Culver in Iowa.  The difference between Perry and Culver is twofold, first off the year which leans republican, and second the states in which they represent.  But if any democrat has a chance of cracking extremely republican Texas in a year like this, popular Houston mayor Bill White is it.  This is a race that probably leans Perry at the moment, but will probably buck the rightward trend of the nation as we get down the stretch.

Rating – Lean R

Utah – Gary Herbert vs Peter Corroon – Corroon was actually a decent get for the democrats as he is the mayor (I think) of Salt Lake county.  That being said, like Oklahoma, in a year like this, Utah is hopeless.

Rating – Solid R

Vermont – Brian Dubie vs Peter Shumlin – It amazes me that a state as liberal and democratic as Vermont could elect a republican governor here, but the democrats nominated their weakest possible candidate, Peter Shumlin, and Dubie is actually quite popular in VT.  I have this one at tossup, mostly because of the gigantic democratic lean of the state, but if polling continues to show Dubie ahead I might have to trust the polls at some point.

Rating – Toss Up

Wisconsin – Scott Walker vs Tom Barrett – This has the makings of another close race in what is usually a fairly swingy state.  The republican candidate is Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker, and in a backyard brawl of sorts he faces democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett.  Polling so far has shown this as either a dead heat or a very small lead for Walker. Incumbent governor Jim Doyle isn’t all that popular, which hurts Barrett, but I don’t get the feeling that democrats have felt a big backlash in Wisconsin like they have in some other states in the region.  

Rating – Toss Up

Wyoming – Matt Mead vs Leslie Petersen – Cmon now, this is Wyoming in 2010.  Nothing to see here.  

Rating – Solid R

Recap – Well, the governor’s races this cycle for the most part lean republican, but the results vary greatly from state to state and region to region.  Overall I have the democrats picking up governorships in Hawaii, Connecticut, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and California.  The republicans will pick up governorships in New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Tennessee.  Many of these races are close, and are closely tied to voter discontent and the economy, much more so even than Senate or House races.  Therefore we could see some great volatility in these rankings before we reach the end of the campaign in November.

2010 Governors Big Board

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

Hawaii

New Hampshire

New York

Likely Dem – 3 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Minnesota

Lean Dem – 4 seats

Florida

Maryland

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Toss Up – 8 seats

California

Georgia

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Wisconsin

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Arizona

Illinois

Michigan

South Carolina

Texas

Likely Rep – 3 seats

Iowa

Nevada

Pennsylvania

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Alabama

Alaska

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

Another week, another edition of StephenCLE’s Senate predictions:

With the generic ballot going to crap within the past few weeks and the democrats being locked in a situation where their voters are simply not engaged at all, the republicans have advanced here quite a bit.  In my last update, I had the Republicans picking up only 2.5 seats.  Now that number has ballooned to 5.5.  Still, I think it’s more likely for the Democrats to get out of November with only a nominal loss in the Senate than it is in the House.  Campaigns will be critical here since the candidates are generally well known in the Senate, and there will probably be more thought put into votes as opposed to the House, where in the absence of any real knowledge of the candidates, many angry voters will reflexively pull the Republican lever.  

Before the rankings, a new feature.  The map please:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 53 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 1 Charlie Crist

Swing – Republicans +5.5

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Colorado

Ind pickups – Florida

August Ratings Changes:

1.Missouri – Toss Up to Lean Rep – There is little doubt in my mind that Robin Carnahan would win this race in a normal year, but thanks to the national mood, and Barack Obama’s horrific approval numbers in Missouri, she’s fallen behind Roy Blunt by 5-7 points, which is just enough to move the race to Lean R for the time being.  I don’t think this race is out of reach by any means however.  Carnahan will really have to work hard for it though.

2.Nevada – Lean Dem to Toss Up – Polls are starting to show Sharron Angle creeping back into it a little bit, but she’s still trailing by 2-4 in most polls.  That’s close enough for me to put the race back into Toss Up status.  Really, if he wasn’t so unpopular Reid would probably be running away with this.  The thing that’s saving him is that all those democrats that were probably going to vote against him just to get a new “better” majority leader, their plans were ki-boshed because no upstanding democrat could ever allow a nut like Angle into the Senate like that.

3.Kentucky – Lean Rep to Toss Up – Kentucky is the one race that has moved in the democratic direction this month, and it’s mostly because of Rand Paul’s ridiculous stand on drugs that turned law enforcement officials of all stripes against him.  It is downright incredible to me that we could be looking at a democratic pickup in Kentucky in a year like this, but it’s very possible.  Polls are virtually a dead heat.

4.Ohio – Toss Up/Dem Pickup to Toss Up/Rep Retention – I’m being a bit cautious on this race.  Portman has gone up with a few ads but hasn’t really stormed the airwaves yet, which I’m somewhat surprised about given his cash advantage.  Ipsos and Rassmussen have him winning, most others still have Fisher ahead but by less % than the Portman leads.  With other states moving rightward, this move is more a result of the generic ballot than any individual polls.  This is still a very tight race, and the closer we get to election day without Portman going on the air in full, the less imposing his cash-on-hand advantage becomes.

5.Pennsylvania – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Toss Up/Rep Pickup – Republicans are doing pretty well across the board in Pennsylvania right now, but I balk to pull this race out of toss up because of a few key factors.  First off, Toomey is on the air, and is trying to re-define himself, while Sestak is sitting back, content to repeat his strategy of blanketing the airwaves late and sprinting to victory that worked so brilliantly against Arlen Specter.  Secondly, this is a democratic state as a whole, so if there was one state in the country where a surprise turnout by “unlikely” democratic voters could swing an election, this is it.  Toomey’s at his peak right now, it’s all downhill from here.  The challenge for him will be to withstand Sestak’s onslaught when it inevitably does come.

6.Arizona – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – With it looking very unlikely that JD Hayworth will upset John McCain in the republican primary, and with Rodney Glassman’s campaign taking on water in recent days, I put this one in the Safe R column.

2010 Senate Big Board (as of August update)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

New York (Schumer)

Vermont (Leahy)

Maryland (Mikulski)

Oregon (Wyden)

Hawaii (Inouye)

New York (Gillibrand)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

West Virginia (Open)

Lean Dem – 3 seats

California (Boxer)

Washington (Murray)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Lean Ind – 1 seat

Florida (Open)

Toss Up – 6 seats

Kentucky (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

Ohio (Open)

Colorado (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Lean Rep – 4 seats

Missouri (Open)

North Carolina (Burr)

Indiana (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Georgia (Isakson)

Delaware (Open)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Iowa (Grassley)

Louisiana (Vitter)

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Arizona (McCain)

South Carolina (Demint)

Alabama (Shelby)

North Dakota (Open)

South Dakota (Thune)

Kansas (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

Utah (Open)

Idaho (Crapo)

Alaska (Murkowski)

Another month, another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  

Ladies and gentlemen of SSP, the battle for the House took a severe turn for the worse for Team Blue.  Team Red has picked up momentum almost everywhere as they have taken a 7-point lead in the generic ballot (their biggest ever) and they have seen a bevy of individual district polls that have been extremely favorable to their cause.  Granted, a lot of these polls are internals, but with democrats refusing to release their internal numbers for the most part, I have to assume that their numbers are not to their liking either.  Either that, or democrats across the nation are engaging in a big game of rope-a-dope, which I highly doubt.

As a result of the seeming surge for Republicans in the past two weeks, Team Red has picked up a whole bunch of seats since last update, and many other democratic seats have been downgraded.  If anything, this update might be an admission that my whole house picture was too optimistic from the start.  What I thought would happen, is that democrats’ advantages of incumbency and fundraising would help to blunt the generic ballot and other macro factors in November (a la PA-12 special election in May), but it seems that voter anger has gotten to the point where it might not matter.  People are losing their minds, and I think if the Republicans take control of congress, you’re going to see a LOT of buyer’s remorse over this election come 2012., especially if nuts like Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Pat Toomey are elected (yeah, my Senate update later this week will probably be much of the same unfortunately)

Total House Math for August 2nd:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 225 Democrats, 210 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +31

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (35) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, FL-2, FL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-7, PA-11, SC-5, SD-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AZ-5, FL-8, IA-3, IL-14, NY-19, PA-7, SC-5, SD-1

Republican to Democrat – none

Late August Race Ratings Changes – (so many that I can’t possibly hope to explain them all, all 26 of them are dem to rep)

1.NM-1 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

2.NY-13 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

3.NC-11 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

4.IL-17 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

5.NC-7 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem

6.AR-4 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem

7.WA-2 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem

8.OH-13 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

9.OH-18 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

10.PA-3 – Likely Dem to Toss Up

11.PA-4 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem

12.PA-10 – Lean Dem to Toss Up

13.SC-5 – Lean Dem to Toss Up

14.SD-1 – Lean Dem to Toss Up

15.IA-3 – Lean Dem to Lean Rep

16.MO-4 – Lean Dem to Toss Up

17.VA-5 – Toss Up to Lean Rep

18.KS-2 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep

19.TX-32 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep

20.GA-8 – Lean Dem to Toss Up

21.FL-8 – Lean Dem to Toss Up

22.NE-2 – Lean Rep to Likely Rep

23.NM-3 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem

24.OH-12 – Lean Rep to Likely Rep

25.PA-6 – Lean Rep to Likely Rep

26.IL-12 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 157 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 31 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 25 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 34 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 17 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 14 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 156 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

Ranking the Democratic Held House Seats:

Several other members of the SSP community have done these rankings of house seats in terms of vulnerability, and I thought it was about time that I did the same.  Since the prospects of democratic pickups isn’t looking all that good for the most part, I’m going to frame the list on the democratic side, ranking in order the seats most likely to flip to team red.  

The current setup of the House is 256 democrats, 179 republicans.  That means that the republicans need a net of 39 seats to win control of the chamber.  I say net of 39 because they are almost certain to drop some seats.  For the sake of this exercise, let’s say that the Democrats pick up 5 red seats in November (DE-1, LA-2, IL-10, HI-1, and then one wild card like FL-25, OH-12, AL-5, PA-15, CA-3, etc).  That would mean that the republicans would need to score 44 seats to take back control of the chamber.  Here are the seats that represent their best odds of getting it done.

Category 1 – Gone (100% chance of Rep takeover)

1.TN-6

2.LA-3

3.AR-2

Category 2 – Probably Gone (70%+ chance of Rep takeover)

4.NY-29

5.IN-8

6.PA-11

7.NH-2

8.AR-1

9.OH-1

10.KS-3

11.MS-1

12.VA-2

13.NY-24

Category 3 – Eeny, meeny, yeah…gone, I think (55-80% chance of Rep takeover)

14.VA-5

15.MD-1

16.TN-8

17.MI-1

18.ND-1

19.OH-15

20.NM-2

21.TX-17

22.IL-11

23.MI-7

24.FL-2

25.TN-4

26.NV-3

27.AL-2

Category 4 – Wow, I don’t know (45-55% chance of Rep takeover)

28.IA-3

29.IL-14

30.NY-19

31.AZ-5

32.PA-7

33.OH-16

34.FL-22

35.WI-7

36.NY-1

37.CA-11

38.FL-24

Category 5 – I think they’re safe…I think (55-80% chance of Dem retention)

39.CO-4

40.FL-8

41.SC-5

42.MO-4

43.SD-1

44.NH-1

————————————————————————————— line of control

45.WV-1

46.ID-1

47.NC-8

48.NY-23

Category 6 – Should be safe, unless doomsday beckons (80+% chance of Dem retention)

49.TX-23

50.IN-9

51.PA-3

52.GA-8

53.OR-5

54.PA-10

55.AZ-8

56.NJ-3

57.WI-8

58.MA-10

59.VA-9

60.NM-1

So that’s my top 60.  Obviously, if Team Blue is dropping districts beyond this chart on election night, then it’s time to start drinking.  Thoughts?  I know many of you have been critical in the sense that I’ve been biased against the Southeast and perhaps not enough against the Midwest, so I’ve tried to be somewhat cognizant of that when compiling these rankings.  FWIW, this will become a regular facet of my house rankings beginning next update later this month.

So anyway, yeah, in case you haven’t heard, we have another razor-close federal election shaping up in Ohio.  I know, surprise surprise, but I’m going to try to diagram where I think both candidates need to do to win this election.  I’ll start with each candidates’ respective bases and then move to the swing areas.  

Fisher’s base – Lee Fisher’s base is in Cuyahoga County and in democratic northeastern Ohio.  As such, to win this election, he’s going to need to run up percentages mirroring what Barack Obama got at the very least, and he should be able to beat his percentages in some areas that were cool to Obama for cultural reasons.  

Portman’s base – Rob Portman’s base is in the Cincinnati area and in southwestern Ohio.  As such, to win the election, Portman is going to need to run extremely well in metro Cincinnati and in the rural reaches of the west and southwest of the state.  His goal should be to meet or exceed the percentages put up here by George W. Bush in 2004.  

Now for the really important stuff.  Assuming Portman and Fisher carry their bases (and believe me, if one doesn’t, they are toast), there are three regions that need to be watched to see who is going to pull this one out.  One area is fairly populous, and the other two aren’t, but nevertheless could swing the race.

1.Northwestern Ohio – This area includes Toledo and the rural reaches surrounding it.  The farmlands are usually solid GOP, but Barack Obama exposed a divide here, as he did extremely well in the farmlands along the I-80 corridor, winning several counties not won since Clinton and holding down margins elsewhere.  Portman must seek to sweep this area and put up numbers similar to George W. Bush’s 2000/2004 marks and hold down the margin a bit in Toledo.  A lot of this region falls into the economic conservative/social liberal category, so Portman’s job might not be as difficult as it would appear on paper given the year.

2.Southeastern Ohio – This region is one in which democrats usually do well, but despite his win Barack Obama had difficulties here in 2008, mostly due to race and cultural difficulties in the mostly white, working-class electorate.  Lee Fisher, being an establishment Ohio democrat, shouldn’t have too many issues here.  The electorate is socially conservative/economically liberal, and probably wouldn’t be inclined to like Portman’s financial stickiness and his support of offshoring.  The GOP candidate’s goal will be to try to replicate John McCain’s success here, but his job will be more difficult because of his policy positions.

3.The I-70 corridor – This is the one region of the state that is often the decider in a close election, and it surprises me that it never seems to get much coverage.  What is the I-70 corridor?  I define it as a belt that stretches through three counties, that until recently were swingish, and includes the cities of Dayton, Springfield, and Columbus.  All three of these places could potentially be competitive in this election, though Columbus less so than the others.  Fisher will need to win Dayton and especially Columbus by big margins and try to win Springfield outright, while Portman will try to pull an upset in Dayton, win Springfield strongly, and hold the margin close in Columbus.

Which brings us to the map:

Colors:

Pink/Light Blue – 0-6% win

Red/Blue – 6-12% win

Dark Red/Dark Blue – 12%+ win

As you can see here, the northeastern base for Fisher and the southwestern base for Portman are well represented, as are the swing regions of the state.  If the election were to play out exactly like this, we’d be heading to a recount, though Fisher would have a lead of about 10k votes.  So consider these the marks that Fisher has to hit, and that Portman must beat, to win.  The turnout totals are based on the 2006 senate election, slightly modified for population growth/loss and expected turnout.

county fisher portman

Northwest Region 261357 293658 555015 47.1% 52.9%

williams 5838 7143 12981 45.0% 55.0%

defiance 6024 7577 13601 44.3% 55.7%

paulding 2956 4576 7532 39.2% 60.8%

van wert 3577 6839 10416 34.3% 65.7%

mercer 4813 10718 15531 31.0% 69.0%

auglaize 5745 11842 17587 32.7% 67.3%

allen 14197 21921 36118 39.3% 60.7%

putnam 3300 10539 13839 23.8% 76.2%

henry 5094 6377 11471 44.4% 55.6%

fulton 7336 8679 16015 45.8% 54.2%

lucas 80630 56159 136789 58.9% 41.1%

wood 22805 22747 45552 50.1% 49.9%

hancock 8498 18621 27119 31.3% 68.7%

hardin 4079 5703 9782 41.7% 58.3%

wyandot 3212 4901 8113 39.6% 60.4%

crawford 7227 9455 16682 43.3% 56.7%

seneca 9442 10643 20085 47.0% 53.0%

sandusky 11299 11583 22882 49.4% 50.6%

ottawa 9548 8972 18520 51.6% 48.4%

erie 16572 13018 29590 56.0% 44.0%

huron 8934 9994 18928 47.2% 52.8%

richland 20231 25651 45882 44.1% 55.9%

Northeast Region 840114 587727 1427841 58.8% 41.2%

lorain 58129 41429 99558 58.4% 41.6%

ashland 7740 11449 19189 40.3% 59.7%

holmes 2210 5841 8051 27.5% 72.5%

wayne 15799 22485 38284 41.3% 58.7%

medina 30586 36186 66772 45.8% 54.2%

cuyahoga 295568 139235 434803 68.0% 32.0%

summit 116776 78559 195335 59.8% 40.2%

stark 71975 67353 139328 51.7% 48.3%

portage 30776 23875 54651 56.3% 43.7%

geauga 18403 23153 41556 44.3% 55.7%

lake 46649 43988 90637 51.5% 48.5%

ashtabula 18651 14878 33529 55.6% 44.4%

trumbull 49586 28520 78106 63.5% 36.5%

mahoning 58364 32851 91215 64.0% 36.0%

columbiana 18902 17925 36827 51.3% 48.7%

Central Region 386100 409689 795789 48.5% 51.5%

marion 9578 12026 21604 44.3% 55.7%

morrow 5176 7299 12475 41.5% 58.5%

coshocton 6024 7340 13364 45.1% 54.9%

knox 9041 12536 21577 41.9% 58.1%

licking 24599 35312 59911 41.1% 58.9%

muskingum 13664 14534 28198 48.5% 51.5%

delaware 27709 43024 70733 39.2% 60.8%

union 6550 11281 17831 36.7% 63.3%

logan 6409 9797 16206 39.5% 60.5%

champaign 5689 8498 14187 40.1% 59.9%

madison 5414 8010 13424 40.3% 59.7%

franklin 209461 168198 377659 55.5% 44.5%

fairfield 23283 33506 56789 41.0% 59.0%

perry 5927 5255 11182 53.0% 47.0%

hocking 5064 4662 9726 52.1% 47.9%

pickaway 7458 11459 18917 39.4% 60.6%

ross 11761 11801 23562 49.9% 50.1%

fayette 3293 5151 8444 39.0% 61.0%

Southwest Region 399464 582617 982081 40.7% 59.3%

darke 7067 13111 20178 35.0% 65.0%

shelby 6122 11101 17223 35.5% 64.5%

miami 12354 24699 37053 33.3% 66.7%

clark 23650 25456 49106 48.2% 51.8%

greene 21415 40797 62212 34.4% 65.6%

montgomery 95491 90122 185613 51.4% 48.6%

preble 5621 10036 15657 35.9% 64.1%

butler 38443 80854 119297 32.2% 67.8%

hamilton 129134 155467 284601 45.4% 54.6%

clermont 22333 46588 68921 32.4% 67.6%

warren 19102 54588 73690 25.9% 74.1%

clinton 4505 8187 12692 35.5% 64.5%

highland 5174 7797 12971 39.9% 60.1%

brown 5650 8547 14197 39.8% 60.2%

adams 3403 5267 8670 39.3% 60.7%

Southeast Region 126748 127907 254655 49.8% 50.2%

pike 4845 4798 9643 50.2% 49.8%

scioto 13466 12708 26174 51.4% 48.6%

lawrence 8261 11216 19477 42.4% 57.6%

jackson 4453 5833 10286 43.3% 56.7%

gallia 3903 6155 10058 38.8% 61.2%

vinton 1884 2601 4485 42.0% 58.0%

meigs 3190 4569 7759 41.1% 58.9%

athens 10788 5739 16527 65.3% 34.7%

morgan 2655 2823 5478 48.5% 51.5%

guernsey 6334 6905 13239 47.8% 52.2%

noble 2311 2859 5170 44.7% 55.3%

washington 10231 12540 22771 44.9% 55.1%

monroe 3431 2535 5966 57.5% 42.5%

belmont 13190 10356 23546 56.0% 44.0%

jefferson 13473 12188 25661 52.5% 47.5%

harrison 2930 3050 5980 49.0% 51.0%

tuscarawas 15860 15524 31384 50.5% 49.5%

carroll 5543 5508 11051 50.2% 49.8%

Statewide Total 2013783 2001598 4015381 50.15% 49.85%