Author: andyroo312

Memo to U.S. politicians: 2010 is not evidently not the best year to be a party-switcher.

Yesterday, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, the Democrat-turned-Republican, who switched parties in the hopes of taking on Democrat Andrew Cuomo in the upcoming New York Guberntorial race, tanked at the state’s GOP convention. Levy’s support was so thin, he failed to secure a spot on the party’s primary ballot, ensuring fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio will be the official GOP nominee to challenge Cuomo.

Yes, THAT Rick Lazio.

The fmr. Long Island Congressman, who scored fifteen minutes of national fame a decade ago in the 2000 U.S. Senate race against Hillary Rodham Clinton, has returned for another statewide beating. Lazio became the subject of political notoriety for his debate performance against Clinton, in which he abandoned his debate podium and demanded, face-to-face, that the fmr. First Lady sign a pledge, aiming to ban soft money in political campaigns. Meant to strike a chord with Independent voters, who’d been weary of Clinton’s political ambitions, the move instead solidified Clinton’s support among female voters, who saw Lazio’s move as positively cringe-worthy.

A toss-up race quickly became Clinton’s to lose, and she did claim a strong, double-digit victory, sending Lazio forever into the dark, murky shadows of failed New York politicos. Or, so we thought.

Lazio’s bid against the sitting Attorney General is, to put it mildly, the mother of all long-shots. After all, Cuomo’s actually quite popular among even registered Republicans, and conservatives are raving over his policy positions, not too unlike those of Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s. Plus, one has to consider why Steve Levy gave this race a shot in the first place. Lazio, while respected among the state’s conservative circles, is generally looked upon as a washed-up has-been, not to mention a personality who’s hardly of the most telegenic or exciting kind. Levy, despite his failings, at least had a sort of hammy, humorous demeanor which may have paid off come the face-to-face debates with Cuomo.

Alas, the GOP has sided with Lazio, and I must say, this race looks like a complete blow-out to me. How I currently see it playing out…

Democrat – 47%

Independent – 28%

Republican – 25%

Cuomo – 97%/70%/35% = 75%

Lazio – 3%/30%/65% = 25%

Such a race would even best the stellar showing of Elliot Spitzer in his 2006 bid against John Faso, which was a 69%-29% victory. Now, let’s pretend, for a moment, that Lazio actually runs a solid campaign, while Cuomo’s is surprisingly underwhelming. (For the record, I highly doubt this will be the case.) Presuming such, I suspect a best-case-scenario for Lazio looks something like…

Democrat – 44%

Republican – 30%

Independent – 26%

Cuomo – 93%/20%/65% = 64%

Lazio – 7%/80%/35% = 36%

This margin roughly mirrors that of the 2008 Presidential race. That is, the Republican wins a decent majority of GOP-ers and self-described “conservatives,” but “moderates” still flock to the Democrat, and the Dem base is still basically shored-up. No matter what, I can’t imagine Cuomo not winning about two-to-one over Lazio, especially given the Democrat’s aggressive willingness to work across-the-aisle. Lazio, on the flip side, will probably run a very anti-Democrat campaign, and try to win over the state on a platform of conservativism. Of course, one cannot win statewide in New York by doing this.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

A week in advance of the California GOP Primary to replace Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, there’s some new hooplah invading the blogosphere over a stunning new poll on the race. The poll, commissioned by the Los Angeles Times, shows that while fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is leading the pack to win the nomination, she is performing an entire 13 points worse than fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell against Boxer.

This development has fired-up both the Campbell and Fiorina camps, as Campbell touts the poll as the basis for an electability argument – he can beat Boxer while Fiorina cannot – while Fiorina is rightfully pointing to Campbell’s two failed statewide runs from the past, not to mention the fmr. Congressman’s inability to compete in the state’s Gubernatorial race, which he’d been contesting prior to the Senate run.

Most of my fellow pundits appear to be siding with Campbell’s argument, that a moderate GOP-er can compete with the liberal Boxer, while a conservative like Fiorina, who also happened to be fired from her tenure at HP, probably cannot.

I respectfully disagree with this assertion. I happen to think Fiorina, not Campbell (nor Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the third candidate in the primary), is actually the strongest candidate to take on the incumbent Boxer. While my colleagues are correct about Campbell’s more centrist record, I believe the fmr. Congressman has two serious electoral problems that Fiorina does not.

For one, Fiorina has the ability to self-fund her campaign, relieving national Republicans from having to pump funds into the most expansive and expensive state in the country. Campbell, who has hardly been a firecracker on the fundraising trail, would need outside support to fund his campaign. Also, and perhaps even more importantly, is the issue of Republican turn-out. Campbell, who is detested by the Tea Party crowd, could face problems in GOTV with his party’s base. While he may have the ability to peel off some conservative Democrats and moderate Independents who wouldn’t take too kindly to Fiorina, if Campbell cannot turn-out the GOP base as well, he absolutely cannot prevail.

Fiorina, on the flip side, is respected among self-described conservatives and even with the Tea Party crowd. Her admiration from the latter has forced the even more conservative DeVore into a distant third. However, I think the fmr. CEO does have the ability to reach out to some moderates and score the necessary numbers among non-affilateds to take down Boxer. Her tenure at HP will surely draw fire from the Boxer camp, and she is prone to making the occasional gaffe.

Alas, if Republicans really want to fulfill their dream of taking out Barbara Boxer, it’s Carly Fiorina, not Tom Campbell, who’s their most golden option.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Last January, I asserted that, despite President Obama’s floundering approval rating and even stronger discontent with Congressional Democrats, political analysts were overestimating the Republican Party’s hand in re-taking control of the U.S. Senate. I projected Democrats would lose only two seats, bringing them to 58-42 control over the body. This, of course, was prior to Sen. Scott Brown’s stunning upset over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special election; a win which robbed Democrats of their Senate super majority. My suspicion was, while Democrats were hardly in the best of shape, the GOP just wasn’t fielding strong-enough candidates to actually defeat some of these fading Dem incumbents.

That is no longer the case.

While I continue to believe Republicans don’t have the candidates to re-take the Senate, I do suspect they have the strength to knock off more than just one or two incumbents. President Obama’s approval is below 50% and Harry Reid’s health care reform bill is still unpopular, months after its passage. Though I don’t believe November will be a catastrophic month for Democrats, I do think they’re in for a modest thumping, and thus, I am now projecting a Democratic hold of the Senate by a margin of only 53-47.

To explain my thinking in a more detailed fashion, it’s necessary to delve into a few specific races which have evolved in the past months. After all, what is causing much of the general ineptness among Democrats is not necessarily Obama-related, but rather stemmed from local problems regarding the candidates themselves.

Here are the five races which have most changed in ranking since my projections back in January:

California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) vs. fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

January projection: Likely Dem

Current projection: Toss-up

First off, with all due respect to my Tea Party readers, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who typically polls double-digits behind his better-known GOP challengers, doesn’t have the slightest chance at winning the Republican nomination; hence, I’ve left him from the match-up. Even in January, Boxer looked a bit vulnerable, but nearly all polling ever since has shown a strikingly-competitive race, whether it’s against the centrist Campbell or outsider Fiorina. Boxer gets the leg-up, if solely on the basis of the state’s overwhelming Dem registration, but if Boxer starts bleeding moderate Independents and conservative Democrats, she’s in a whole heap of trouble. Plus, should the GOP nominate Fiorina, they’ve got a candidate with the ability to self-fund, hence relieving national Republicans of pumping funds into a state as expansive and expensive as California.

Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle (R) vs. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D)

January projection: Toss-up

Current projection: Likely GOP

Just a few months back, political analysts were salivating over what looked to be one of the hottest midterm races of 2010: the popular GOP Congressman Mike Castle vs. the equally-popular Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden. Alas, Biden stunned political junkies and Delaware Democrats alike when he opted to pass on the race, all but assuring Castle a huge pick-up in a hugely-Democratic state. State Dems settled on the lesser-known Chris Coons for the nomination. On paper, Coons may seem to have an advantage with the state’s massive Democratic registration, but Castle is no ordinary GOP-er; he’s a moderate figure, beloved statewide by figures on both the left and right. Castle could surely run up a 30-35% score among members of Coons’ party, especially since the lack of a substantive primary challenge has allowed the Republican to remain in his centrist position.

Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)

January projection: Likely Dem

Current projection: Toss-up

After Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh dropped the mother of all bombshells with his decision not to run for re-election, Republicans quickly began to celebrate over the likelihood of picking up this conservative-leaning state. For my money, however, such a party was premature. Democrats are fielding a strong, moderate candidate here in Ellsworth, while Republicans have a less exciting recruit in fmr. Sen. Coats, who barely squeaked by in the state’s recent GOP primary. The Tea Party crowd isn’t especially keen on the uber-establishment Coats, and if they stay home, Ellsworth squeaks out a victory.

Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) vs. eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)

January projection: Likely GOP

Current projection: Toss-up

Here’s one of the very few, if perhaps only, cases where a Democrat could pick up a GOP-held Senate seat. Though Paul practically destroyed his better-known, establishment-supported opponent in the recent Kentucky GOP primary, he’s since made a number of controversial statements, among them ones regarding the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and President Obama’s handling of the BP crisis, which all but assure Paul won’t be walking away handily in this overwhelming-conservative state. Conway is a very strong recruit for the Dems – stronger than his primary opponent, ’04 nominee Dan Mongiardo – and should perform well among Independents who don’t aspire to the Tea Party movement. For now, edge to Conway.

Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter (R) vs. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D)

January projection: Lean GOP

Current projection: Safe GOP

For about fifteen minutes, national Dems thought they’d scored a major recruit in Melancon, a relatively-popular and well-known Democratic Congressman, to compete against the seemingly-vulnerable Sen. Vitter, once embroiled in a hot infidelity scandal. Alas, recent polling has shown Vitter all but trouncing Melancon, safely removing this seat from potential Dem pick-up territory. Melancon can run as centrist and appealing a campaign as he wants, but it looks like Louisiana folks have forgiven their incumbent Senator.

Here is my complete run-down of each upcoming Senate race. In most of the “Safe Dem” and “Safe GOP” races, there are no candidates listed for the losing party. In some cases, this is because no candidates have been fielded for the nomination, and in others, there are several contenders who have about as much name recognition as me.

Safe Dem (>20% victory) :

Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)

Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)

New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)

Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > GOP nominee (?)

Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > GOP nominee (?)

Likely Dem (10-20% victory):

New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)

Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)

Lean Dem (5-10% victory):

Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon

Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi

Toss-up:

California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell or fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Weld (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)

Florida – fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) > Gov. Charlie Crist (I) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)

Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) > fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)

Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) > eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)

Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)

Nevada – Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, or Attorney Danny Tarkanian (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)

Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)

Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)

Lean GOP (5-10% victory):

Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias

New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes

North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall

Likely GOP (10-20% victory):

Arkansas – fmr. Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln or Lt. Gov. Bill Halter

Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman

Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Haven County Executive Chris Coons

Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin

Safe GOP (>20% victory):

Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Dem nominee (?)

Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)

Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)

Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > Dem nominee (?)

Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon

Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)

North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > Dem nominee (?)

Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)

South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > Dem nominee (?)

South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > Dem nominee (?)

Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > Dem nominee (?)

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…