Author: silver spring

(This diary is cross-posted on the Daily Kos)

Two months ago, I posted a diary here, “Redistricting Maryland: 8 Democratic Seats”

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I have since then worked with the map to design a plan which will make it even more likely that eight Democrats can be elected in 2012.  I must admit that the resulting map is quite gerrymandered (though not more so than the existing Maryland map).  I am opposed to highly gerrymandered redistricting in principle.  Even though the Supreme Court has clearly ruled that political gerrymandering (as opposed to gerrymandering where race is the predominant factor) is permissible, I just think that it ultimately lets some politicians decide who their voters are going to be, instead of the other way around.  However, as long as the Republicans continue to do it, there is no reason why Democrats should disarm unilaterally.  

I tried to make the new map reflective of 2010 population estimates, as different parts of Maryland have experienced varying population growth levels.  For example, the population of Baltimore City is expected to decline slightly between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses, while some outer exurban areas of Baltimore and Washington are expected to show increases of 20% or more.  The new map reflects this reality.  The map keeps intact much of the territory of the current seven Democratic representatives, while still creating an additional eighth Democratic seat.

As in my April post, the map below demonstrates that it is very possible to redistrict Maryland in a manner in which eight Democrats can be elected to Congress from the state.  I have refined the map whereby seven Democratic districts (Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8) voted for Obama by at least a 22.5 point margin.  Districts 4 and 7 remain African-American majority, as is necessary per the VRA.  (Both districts are ensured to elect an African-American Democrat, as 70% or more of the Democratic primary vote in each district is expected to be comprised of African-Americans.)  The proposed District 1 goes from one which McCain won by 18.5 points to one which Obama wins by 6.4 points; if Kratovil makes it through 2010, he will be more than safe in the new MD-1.  The proposed District 6 goes from one which McCain won by 17.5 points to one which Obama wins by 22.6 points.  In the discussion of each district (below the map) I also discuss how these new districts performed in other recent Maryland political races (2004, 2006 and 2008 elections).

Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Maps with precincts:

Note:  Additional supplemental maps can be found at bottom of diary.

Discussion of Individual Districts:

YELLOW – District 1:  Frank Kratovil (home: Queen Anne’s County)

Current District:  Obama 39.8%; McCain 58.3% (McCain + 18.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 52.3%; McCain 45.9% (Obama + 6.4)

Proposed District:  Kerry 47.9%; Bush 51.1%

Proposed District:  Cardin 45.6%; Steele 52.7%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 44.5%; Ehrlich 54.4%

This district continues to encompass the entire Eastern Shore.  The new district proceeds through parts of northern Harford and Baltimore Counties (although it completely excludes the State Senate District of 2008 GOP Candidate Andy Harris) and into very Democratic territory on the western side of Baltimore County.   The district also includes the Annapolis area in Anne Arundel County.  Interestingly, both the Obama-McCain and Kerry-Bush percentages of the new district correspond very closely to the national average.

Major communities in proposed MD-1 district: all of Eastern Shore; Harford County – Bel Air (part); Baltimore County – Randallstown, Lochearn, Milford Mill, Owings Mills, Reisterstown, Woodlawn (part); Anne Arundel County – Annapolis.

GRAY – District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (home: Cockeysville)

Current District:  Obama 59.8%; McCain 38.3% (Obama + 21.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.8%; McCain 37.5% (Obama + 23.3)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.3%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 52.3%; Steele 45.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.0%; Ehrlich 47.8%

The new district continues to include most of the communities currently in MD-2, including parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties, as well as Baltimore City (the proposed district includes all areas of Baltimore City currently in MD-2 and also adds the area around Hopkins/Bayview Hospital on the eastern side of the city.)  The new district expands into parts of Prince George’s and Howard Counties.

Major communities in proposed MD-2 district: Baltimore City (part); Anne Arundel County – Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie (part), Severn, Fort Meade, Odenton, Maryland City; Harford County – Bel Air (part), Fallston, Joppatowne, Edgewood, Aberdeen, Havre de Grace; Baltimore County – Cockeysville, Towson (part), Rosedale, Middle River (part), Essex (part), Dundalk (part); Prince George’s County – Laurel; Howard County – Savage-Guilford.

ORANGE – District 3:  John Sarbanes (home: Towson)

Current District:  Obama 58.8%; McCain 39.2% (Obama + 19.6)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.5%; McCain 38.0% (Obama + 22.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.4%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 57.3%; Steele 40.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 52.4%; Ehrlich 46.2%

Like MD-2, the new MD-3 remains quite similar to the current district.  Most of the Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Howard County areas remain intact.  Additional territory in Baltimore Co., Howard County and Montgomery County is added.  The Anne Arundel County part of the current district is detached.

Major communities in proposed MD-3 district: Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County Towson (part), ParkvilleCarney, Pikesville, Timonium-Lutherville, Perry Hall, White Marsh, Arbutus, Lansdowne; Howard County – Elkridge, Ellicott City (part), Columbia, North Laurel; Montgomery County – Burtonsville, Colesville, Aspen Hill (part), Olney, Laytonsville.

RED – District 4:  Donna Edwards (home: Fort Washington)

Current District:  Obama 85.1%; McCain 14.2% (Obama + 70.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 70.7%; McCain 28.0% (Obama + 42.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 64.0%; Bush 34.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 60.7%; Steele 37.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 61.7%; Ehrlich 37.3%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-4 continues to encompass much of the same Prince George’s County communities currently in the district.  The Montgomery County part of the current district is detached and is substituted by parts of Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties; very Republican precincts from both counties are added, and the overall Democratic percentage of the district goes down a lot, but still stays at over 70% Obama (there is completely no need to have a district with an Obama advantage of 85-14 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-4 district: Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Oxon Hill, Temple Hills, Andrews AFB, Forestville, Largo-Kettering, Mitchelville, Glenarden, Bladensburg, Riverdale, Hyattsville (part), College Park (part), Langley Park, Adelphi, Beltsville; Anne Arundel County – Crownsville, Gambrills, Davidsonville (part), Millersville, Severna Park, Pasadena-Lake Shore, Riviera Beach, Glen Burnie (part), Ferndale, Linthicum; Baltimore County – Sparrows Point/Edgemere, Dundalk (part), Essex (part), Middle River (part).

PURPLE – District 5:  Steny Hoyer (home: Mechanicsville)

Current District:  Obama 65.4%; McCain 33.3% (Obama + 32.1)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.7%; McCain 36.0% (Obama + 26.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.7%; Bush 44.5%

Proposed District:  Cardin 53.7%; Steele 45.0%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 54.3%; Ehrlich 44.7%

This district changes relatively very little.  It continues to encompass all of the three Southern Maryland counties, south Anne Arundel Co. and “outer” Prince George’s Co.  Parts of Upper Marlboro as well as Crofton and parts of the Annapolis and Broadneck peninsulas are added, while Laurel and adjoining parts of northern Prince George’s are taken out of the district.  The district becomes slightly less Democratic, but it still has a very healthy 26.7 point Obama advantage over McCain.

Major communities in proposed MD-5 district: All of Southern Maryland – Calvert County, Charles County, St. Mary’s County; Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Clinton, Upper Marlboro, Bowie, Glenn Dale, Greenbelt; Anne Arundel County – Riva, Edgewater, Davidsonville (part), Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Parole/Annapolis, Arnold, Cape St. Claire, Crofton.

GREEN – District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (home: Frederick)

Current District:  Obama 40.2%; McCain 57.7% (McCain + 17.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.3%; McCain 37.7% (Obama + 22.6)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.3%; Bush 44.7%

Proposed District:  Cardin 54.5%; Steele 44.1%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.6%; Ehrlich 47.3%

The new district includes most of Frederick County, parts of Carroll County, as well as a good chunk of Montgomery County.  The new territory in Montgomery is the factor that dramatically changes the political composition of this district, as some of the most Democratic parts of the county are added to MD-6.

Major communities in proposed MD-6 district:  Frederick County – Frederick, Middletown, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, New Market, Mt. Airy; Carroll County – Taneytown, Manchester; Montgomery County – Damascus, Clarksburg, Germantown, Montgomery Village, Aspen Hill (part), Wheaton-Glenmont, White Oak, Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part).

BLUE – District 7:  Elijah Cummings (home: Baltimore City)

Current District:  Obama 78.8%; McCain 19.9% (Obama + 58.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 67.0%; McCain 31.5% (Obama + 35.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 60.8%; Bush 37.9%

Proposed District:  Cardin 55.2%; Steele 42.8%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.2%; Ehrlich 43.1%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-7 is not that different from the current district.  The Baltimore City portion of the district remains wholly intact, and, in fact, is expanded to include a few additional African-American majority neighborhoods (including the Pimlico and Coldspring areas in the northwestern part of the city).  The Catonsville and Woodlawn areas in western Baltimore County as well as a good portion of Howard County also remain with MD-7. New, more Republican areas in northern Baltimore County, and parts of Carroll and Harford Counties are added to the district.

Major communities in proposed MD-7 district:  Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County – Catonsville, Woodlawn (part); Harford County – Jarretsville; Carroll County – Westminster, Hampstead, Eldersburg, Sykesville; Howard County – Ellicott City (part).

PINK – District 8:  Chris Van Hollen (home: Kensington)

Current District:  Obama 73.9%; McCain 24.7% (Obama + 49.2)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.0%; McCain 36.2% (Obama + 25.8)

Proposed District:  Kerry 56.9%; Bush 41.6%

Proposed District:  Cardin 58.3%; Steele 40.4%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.0%; Ehrlich 44.0%

The new district includes most of Montgomery County, parts of Frederick and Prince George’s Counties, as well as all of the three Western Maryland counties.  The district becomes somewhat less Democratic, but the new MD-8 still has some of the state’s best partisan stats (4th best Obama percentage, after the two African-American majority districts, and just behind MD-5; 3rd best Kerry percentage; 3rd best O’Malley percentage – just slightly behind MD-7; and 2nd best Cardin percentage – behind only MD-4 and ahead of both MD-3, Cardin’s home district, and the new MD-7 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-8 district:  All of Western Maryland (Garrett County, Allegany County, Washington County); Frederick County – Brunswick; Montgomery County – Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part), Kensington, Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Poolesville; Prince George’s County – Hyattsville (part), Mt. Rainier, Cheverly, Seat Pleasant, Landover.  

Note:  for the entire plan above, the boundaries of only three precincts had to be changed slightly in order to make the map work: 26-7 and 26-11 in Baltimore City, and 4-11 in Baltimore County.

So that’s my Maryland Redistricting Plan – Version 2.  I welcome comments and discussion (if possible, could someone calculate the “PVI’s” for my “new” districts based on the numbers above; I’m not being lazy, just not exactly sure what the current definition is).

Maps of Presidential Performance 2008:

Baltimore City:

Btw, the Baltimore City precinct from the map above that voted 100% for Obama is 15-12, part of the Walbrook neighborhood !  (close-up map is below).  In addition, 47 other precincts in Baltimore City had Obama percentages of 99.0 to 99.9, while 48 voted for Obama at a 98.0 to 98.9% rate (there were also 32 precincts in Prince George’s County that had Obama percentages of between 98.0 and 98.9, and five that voted 99.0 to 99.9% for Obama).  I grew up in Baltimore and currently reside in Silver Spring, and am very proud to live in the great state of Maryland !

(Truly tremendous work. From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

I love political geography and political history. So, something seemed out of line when I recently read diaries on several sites regarding the soon-to-be vacancy of New York’s 23rd Congressional District, made possible by the appointment of John McHugh to become Secretary of the Army. Several diaries mentioned that the district hasn’t been represented by a Democrat in a quarter-century or so. Perhaps parts of the district haven’t elected a Democrat in 25 or so years, but it seemed to me that most of the district hasn’t been Democratic-held since much earlier times. I decided to do a little research.

It turns out that NY-23 is a true political anomaly. It is one of only two remaining districts in the United States where at least part of the district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1852 (the other is Pennsylvania’s 16th District, which includes Lancaster County, most of which has not been represented by a Democrat since 1830. Tennessee’s 2nd District last elected a Democrat in 1852. There no longer are any comparable Democratic-held districts; all have gone Republican at least once since 1850, although a few in Texas held out until the DeLay redistricting of 2004.)

If Democrats win NY-23 in a special election to be held later this year, certain parts of this district will be represented by a Democrat for the first time in 159 years. The map below gives you an idea of how long it’s been since parts of the district have been Democratic-held. Almost two-thirds of the population of the current district (62%) live in territory that has not elected a Democrat since 1890 or earlier. It really is mind-boggling. (For those political geeks interested in more history about this district, I provide additional information below the map.)

Perhaps what got a few commentators confused regarding this district in diaries I read (other than often-confusing district numbering) was the fact that the district has only been around in its present “single-district” form since the 1940’s. Since that time, it has always included Jefferson, St. Lawrence, and Franklin Counties, as well as Lewis Co. (except for 1971-73), and Oswego Co. (except for 1945-53 and 1983-93). Clinton Co. and most of Essex Co. have also been part of the district since 1969 and 1971, respectively. The other, more peripheral counties have been part of this district only briefly over the last 60 or so years. Between 1883 and 1943, there were basically two districts here – a “western” one, encompassing Jefferson, Oswego, Lewis, and Madison, and an “eastern” one, encompassing St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex – although during one period of time, redistricting created three districts centered in what is now NY-23. Prior to 1883, what is now NY-23 was part of four or more different districts.

Since the 1856 election (when the Republican party entered the political arena), the territory in what is now NY-23 has almost exclusively been represented by the GOP. In fact, the last Democrat elected to represent St. Lawrence Co. in Congress was a man named Francis Spinner, elected in 1854. He ran successfully for re-election as a Republican in 1856 and was later appointed as Treasurer of the United States by Abraham Lincoln. The last Democrat to represent Jefferson Co. was even earlier – Willard Ives, elected in 1850. The most amazing fact I found was regarding Franklin Co. The last Democrat elected to represent that county was Joseph Russell, also in 1850. In 1852, the district that then included Franklin elected George Simmons, a member of the Whig party. Therefore, Franklin Co. has been more recently represented in Congress by a WHIG (1854) than by a Democrat (1852)!

I wasn’t going to go into the current political situation in NY-23 at all in this diary, but one fact caught my eye while researching the info here. It is interesting that Darrrell Aubertine (who represents Oswego, Jefferson and part of St. Lawrence in the State Senate – equivalent to approximately 45% of the population of NY-23) is the first Democrat elected to his State Senate seat since 1880. (By the way, no other State Senator represents as high a percentage of NY-23 as Aubertine; GOP Senator Joe Griffo represents about 15% and doesn’t even live in NY-23; while GOP Senator Betty Little represents about 25% and also doesn’t live in the congressional district; two others represent the remainder.) Aubertine would certainly make a formidable candidate for us. However, I also understand the need to keep the State Senate in Democratic hands. NY-23 voted for Obama by 52-47, so this election will be competitive. Hopefully, we will find a good candidate and make him or her the first Democrat elected to Congress here in a long, long time.

Sources for information:

• The Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress (1989)
• The Almanac of American Politics (various editions)
• Wikipedia

The purpose of this diary is to demonstrate that it is quite possible to redistrict Maryland in a manner in which 8 Democrats can be elected to Congress from the state.

The following map provides a visual re. how this may be accomplished following the 2010 Census:

General Observations:

1.) I tried to make the new map reflective of 2010 population estimates, as different parts of the state have experienced varying population growth levels.  For example, the population of Baltimore City is expected to decline slightly between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses, while some outer exurban areas of Baltimore and Washington are expected to show increases of 20% or more.

2.) I tried to make the map less gerrymandered than the current one, and believe that I was successful at the task.  While still creative, the district boundaries are arguably more uniform and the districts more compact than before.  Additionally, the new map keeps intact much of the territory of the current 7 Democratic representatives, while still creating a new 8th Democratic seat.  I decided to keep the district boundaries exactly as they currently are in Baltimore City — in that way it will be much harder to challenge those lines (which are quite gerrymandered) in Court as the new district boundaries in Baltimore would do nothing more than preserve the status quo.

3.) Due to the VRA, the state has to preserve 2 African-American majority districts.  The new map does accomplish this task.  Both District 4 and District 7 are about 51% African-American, using projected 2010 population estimates.  The hitch here is that I use the Census definition of “African-American or in combination with other race(s)” while the standard to use may need to be “African-American alone” under which only about 49% of the population of each district would be black.  Nevertheless, as I’m using only projected population figures, it’s something that can be adjusted once the official 2010 numbers come out — think of the map here as sort of a blueprint of what can be done.  Both districts are ensured to elect an African-American Democrat, as 70% or more of the Democratic primary vote in each district is expected to be comprised of African-Americans.

4.)  I tried to preserve the Democratic nature of all the current Democratic-held districts.  As you can see from the map, and accompanying tables, in Districts 2, 3 and 5, the Democratic percentage — as measured by the share Obama received last year — remains basically the same (it should be noted that the numbers I use here don’t include an adjustment for absentees which would change them slightly).  In District 8, the Democratic percentage declines a bit more — approximately 3% — but still stays at about 70% Obama, which will keep the 8th in Democratic hands.  In Districts 4 and 7, the Democratic percentage drops significantly — from 85% to 73% in MD-4, and from 79% to 66% in MD-7, but the districts are still very Democratic (even John Kerry received close to 60% of the vote in 2004 under District 7’s new lines).  McCain would have won the new District 1 narrowly; however, the Democratic percentage surges from 40% Obama to 47% Obama.  If Kratovil can survive the 2010 election, this map will solidify him in 2012.  District 6 experiences the biggest changes.  The Democratic percentage goes from an anemic 40% to a robust 58.4% (basically equaling Districts 2 and 3).

Discussion of Individual Districts:

District 1:

This district continues to encompass the entire Eastern Shore.  The Republican Harford and Baltimore County portions of the district also remain.  The Anne Arundel Co. portion is taken out and substituted by hyper-Democratic territory currently in the 2nd (Randallstown) and 7th (Lochearn).  The new 1st is arguably less gerrymandered than the old one.  There is no more connection of parts of the district over the Bay Bridge, and the district encompasses one less county than before.

District 2:

The district continues to be anchored by Baltimore County — the boundaries change very slightly in that county.  The Harford County and Baltimore City boundaries don’t change at all.  The Anne Arundel Co. part remains similar to the current, though is less gerrymandered.  To substitute for the loss of the Randallstown area, the Laurel area is added instead.

District 3:

Like MD-2, the new 3rd remains quite similar to the current district.  The Baltimore City, Towson, Parkville Pikesville, Owings Mills, Reisterstown, and Arbutus areas remain intact, as well as the current Howard Co. portion of the district.  The remainder of Howard is added (whereby the whole county is now in MD-3).  The Mt. Airy area of Carroll and Frederick Counties is added as well as Catonsville in Baltimore Co. (Catonsville was in the district prior to 1992), while the highly gerrymandered Anne Arundel areas are taken out.

District 4:

The new 4th continues to encompass large portions of 2 counties.  Most of inner Prince George’s County continues to anchor the district.  However, Montgomery is detached and substituted by Anne Arundel — in fact, the most Republican parts of Anne Arundel.  The Democratic percentage thereby goes down a lot, but still stays at 72.5% Obama.

District 5:

Very little changes here.  Continues to encompass the 3 Southern Maryland counties, south Anne Arundel and outer Prince George’s.  The Annapolis area and parts of Upper Marlboro are substituted for Laurel and adjoining parts of northern PG.

District 6:

Continues to wholly encompass the 3 Western Maryland counties, as well as a good part of Frederick Co.  The hyper-Republican Carroll Co. and areas east are detached, while the district is extended further into Montgomery and PG — including some of the most Democratic parts of suburban DC, ie. Silver Spring, Takoma Park, Mt. Rainier, Cheverly and Landover.  The new district is not any less compact than before, and it now includes only all or part of 6 counties, instead of the current 7 counties.

District 7:

This district “looks” a bit different from the current one; however, population-wise, much of the district remains the same.  The entire Baltimore City portion of the district remains wholly intact, as well as the Woodlawn area of Baltimore County.  The suburban/exurban areas in Howard Co. are detached and substituted by even more exurban (and even more Republican) areas in Carroll, northern Baltimore Co. and northern Harford as well as the blue-leaning area encompassing the City of Frederick (all taken out of the current 6th District).

District 8:

Remains very similar to the current one.  Democratic areas, including Takoma Park, parts of Silver Spring and the PG portion of the district are taken out, while relatively more republican areas in northern Montgomery are attached.  The new 8th remains entirely within Montgomery County.

So that’s my map in a nutshell; I welcome comments and discussion.

First of all, I apologize for the length of this diary.  I started researching this Congressional District and ran into a lot of information, and have apparently tried to include it all here ?

Yahoo News – Fri Sep 14, 8:48 PM ET – Elections set to fill seat of Ohio rep.

http://news.yahoo.co…

COLUMBUS, Ohio – “Gov. Ted Strickland on Friday set Nov. 6 and Dec. 11 as the dates for special primary and general elections to pick a successor to U.S. Rep. Paul Gillmor, a Republican who died earlier this month.

Gillmor died in an apparent fall down the stairs at his suburban Washington apartment.

The 5th District covers all or parts of 16 northwest Ohio counties, stretching from suburban Toledo to northern Ashland County.

The primary on Nov. 6 coincides with this year’s general election. The Dec. 11 election will determine the winner, who would face election again in November 2008 to retain the seat.

So far, only two candidates have announced that they will be in the race.

State Rep. Bob Latta, who lost to Gillmor in a 1988 Republican primary by 27 votes, said he will run for the seat. Latta’s father, Republican Rep. Delbert Latta, represented the district from 1959 to 1989.

Democrat Robin Weirauch, who works in economic and community research at Bowling Green State University, also will make another bid for the seat. She lost to Gillmor in 2004 and 2006. No Democrat has held the seat since the 1930s.”

The Ohio Daily Blog notes that more candidates may join in on the Republican and Democratic side:
http://www.ohiodaily…

From everything I have read online it looks like this is a strongly Republican seat and Republicans think they have the district in the bag:

http://rothenbergpol…
“The 5th District gave President Bush over 60% in the 2004 election, and, though Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown carried the district in 2006, Republicans start with a significant advantage.”

and from the wingnut Human Events: “Will it Be ‘Rep. Gillmor II’ Or ‘Rep. Latta II’?”
http://www.humaneven… 

Despite the Republicans’ confidence in holding onto this district, I think the Democratic Party should make a valiant effort to be competitive here in the upcoming special election.  Several reasons come to mind re. why we should make an effort here and I will outline these reasons below.  Before going there, however, I wanted to give a few basic stats re. the district:

This district voted 61.0% for Bush and 38.5% for Kerry in 2004 (see map for break-down by county).  In 2000 it was Bush 57.5%, Gore 39.2%.  However, the 2000 numbers apply to the old district boundaries, and cannot be compared directly to the 2004 numbers.  Ohio Republicans made the district more Republican in redistricting, by approx. 2.1 pts., by taking out all or parts of relatively more Democratic Ottawa, Erie and Lorain counties, while adding all or parts of more Republican Ashland, Crawford, Wyandot and Fulton counties.  In 1996, again under the old boundaries, Bill Clinton lost to Bob Dole here by only 2 pts. (44-42).

There are 16 counties wholly or partially in the current district.  The district can be divided geographically and politically into roughly two parts:

The eastern part includes Toledo suburbs and all areas east – including Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron, Crawford counties and parts of Lucas, Wyandot and Ashland counties. The 5 counties –Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron and the Lucas part comprise 50.3% of the district’s population according to 2000 Census.  These are the most Democratic counties in the district (all 5 voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, and for Sherrod Brown in the 2006 U.S. Senate race — in both instances differently from the 11 other counties in the current district — which voted Republican).  The more recently added counties here (Crawford, Wyandot, Ashland) have 10.9% of district’s population.  This eastern area has also been the political base of long-term Rep. Gillmor and his politically active wife Karen Gillmor.  Both Paul and Karen Gillmor at one point also represented a State Senate district centered on Seneca and Sandusky counties. 

The western part of the district encompasses all or parts of Williams, Fulton, Defiance, Henry, Paulding, Putnam, Van Vert and Mercer counties and 38.7% of the district’s population.  This area is also relatively more Republican than the rest of the district.

Now, to proceed to why we should take a look at seriously contesting here:

1) District is indeed quite Republican but Democratic candidates have won here in the recent past.  Additionally, Democrats have won even more Republican House seats in the recent past:

Despite winning only 5 counties here in 2006, Sherrod Brown actually carried this district with approx. 51% of the vote (Brown came within one point of winning in 3 other counties in the district).  It is interesting to note that Brown lost five Congressional Districts in Ohio, including OH-2.  Ted Strickland did even better here in his gubernatorial bid, winning by a 10 point margin (53.5-43.5) against Blackwell.  Strickland carried all but 3 counties in the district.  (Incidentally, OH-2 was the only congressional district Strickland lost.)

In 2006 Democrats won 8 seats (including 2 takeovers) in districts which are more Republican (using Bush’s 2004 numbers) than OH-5:

GA-8  Bush 61.3% Marshall 50.6%
IN-8  Bush 61.5% Ellsworth 60.7%
MS-4  Bush 68.3% Taylor 79.9%
MO-4  Bush 64.2% Skelton 67.7%
ND-AL  Bush 62.9% Pomeroy 65.7%
TX-17  Bush 69.9% Edwards 58.1%
TX-22  Bush 64.4% Lampson 51.8%
UT-2  Bush 66.1% Matheson 59.0%

Due to special circumstances surrounding Lampson’s victory, it really cannot be compared to anything else.  Ellsworth, however, ran against a scandal-free incumbent and won with over 60% of the vote in a district Bush won with over 60%.  In addition, many other seats not included on the above list are very, very Republican, yet continue to elect Democrats to Congress.  For example, SD-AL voted 59.9% for Bush, yet Herseth won with 69.1% in 2006.

2) Democratic candidate in last election made an unexpectedly decent showing here (despite being highly outspent):

The last time this district elected a Democrat was Frank Kniffin in 1936.  Since the 1938 election, only Republican congressmen have been elected here (Cliff Clevenger – served 1939-1959; Delbert Latta 1959-1989; Paul Gillmor 1989-2007).  Nevertheless, the Democratic nominee in 2006, Robin Weirauch won 43.1% of the vote here to Gillmor’s 56.9%.  Her 43.1% was an improvement of 10.2% over her result in 2004 when she challenged Gillmor for the first time: http://www.buckeyest…

http://www.buckeyest…
Weirauch’s 43.1% in 2006 occurred despite the fact that she was vastly outspent (569K for Gillmor to 117K for Weirauch;  http://www.opensecre…),
was running against an entrenched incumbent, and the fact that the race was not at all targeted by the Democratic Party.  Her 43.1% was also the highest Democratic U.S. House percentage in the district since 1982.

Weirauch’s November 2006 percentage was also higher than the Democratic percentage in the following seats which received more attention: CO-4 (Paccione, D 42.8; Musgrave, R 45.9; Eidsness, Reform 11.3); MN-6 (Wetterling D, 42.1; Bachmann, R 50.1; Binkowski, Independence 7.8%); NE-1 (Moul, D 41.3; Fortenberry, R 58.8); OH-12 (Shamansky, D 41.9; Tiberi, R 58.1); VA-10 (Feder, D 41.0; Wolf, R 57.3; two others 1.7) and came close to other targeted seats (CA-50, Busby 43.4; FL-9, Busansky 44.1; KY-4, Lucas 43.4 to name a few).  Granted, not all of these seats were the “top tier” in 2006.  Ken Lucas certainly was from what I remember.  On the other hand, after having lost in a June 2006 special election, Francine Busby, was no longer at the top of the Democratic lists for November.  Also, as you can see, there were a few third party candidates in some of these races to complicate the picture.  Nevertheless, unknown Weirauch clearly did better than some of the Democrats in these first and second tier races — fellow Ohio candidate Shamansky (in a one-on-one race with Tiberi) stands out among them.

It should also be noted that OH-2 which voted 63.9% for Bush in 2004, came within 2 points of electing a Democratic congressperson both in the 2005 special – Paul Hackett 48.4% and in 2006 – Victoria Wulsin 49.3%.  In a theoretical universe, with all other things being even, if OH-2 was as Democratic as OH-5 (61.0% for Bush in 2004 – a difference of 2.9% less Republican than OH-2) then Hackett and Wulsin would have made it over the top.  Of course, we can’t compare apples and oranges here (and the unique issue of Jean Schmidt being such a divisive figure), but looking at just the sheer numbers, OH-5 may not be as hopeless as the Republicans would like us to believe.

3) District is now open seat and so anything can happen:

Open seats have a way of sometimes producing unexpected results.  The Paul Hackett race in OH-2 is a good example.  Although Hackett didn’t win, he came very close in that very Republican district.  Here’s two names mentioned above in discussing Democrats representing very Republican districts:  Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL) originally won in a special 2004 election to replace Republican Bill Janklow.  Gene Taylor succeeded a Republican in MS-4 via a special election in 1989 in a district that has not supported the Democratic presidential candidate since 1956.  Also in 1989, Jill Long (a relatively unknown university lecturer) won a previously Republican-held and politically very Republican seat in IN-4 in a special election.  (IN-4 was relabeled as IN-3 in 2002 and incidentally adjoins OH-5 directly to the west.  Democrat Tom Hayhurst made a great showing here in 2006 — 45.7% against Rep. Mark Souder in a district which Bush carried by 68.3% in 2004).  Although a Republican vs. Republican race, the recent upset in GA-10 also comes to mind in what can happen in a special election.

4) Republican candidates here may not be as strong as the Republicans would like us to believe, especially if they get into a nasty primary fight:

According to the Ohio Daily Blog (http://www.ohiodaily…): “The roster on the GOP side is much longer. A pair of term-limited long-time rivals, State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) and State Sen. Randy Gardner (R-Bowling Green), are almost certainly in the race. The Columbus Dispatch blog The Daily Briefing reports that State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) and State Rep. Lynn Wachtmann (R-Napoleon) are on the verge of jumping in, and Wood County Commissioner Tim W. Brown (R) and former State Rep. Rex Damschroder (R-Fremont) are considering running as well. The Wall Street Journal also mentions State Rep. Mark Wagner (R-Ottawa Hills) and former State Rep. Jim Hoops (R) as possible candidates. The deceased Congressman’s widow, former State Senator Dr. Karen L. Gillmor (R), has indicated that she will not run, but Joe Hallett of the Dispatch seems to think that she may change her mind.

In this kind of accelerated race with a large field of candidates, name recognition is probably the factor most likely to determine the outcome. Wierauch would appear to be in a good position due to her two recent campaigns. However, Bob Latta shares in his father’s name recognition and was previously a state senator and Wood County Commissioner. Lynn Wachtmann and Steve Buehrer have each served as State Senator in a district that accounts for about 40% of the 5th Congressional District. And, of course, as widow of the former Congressman Karen Gillmor has as much name recognition as anyone.”

So it seems like several Republicans may be running in the primary here, which may cause an intra-party battle.  Even if just one candidate emerges and there’s no fight, not all of the Republicans are universally beloved.  Even Latta in his last election in 2006 won in his House District (which corresponds almost exactly to Wood Co. and approximately 19% of OH-5 population) with only 56.9% of the vote, despite having represented the area for years. 

On the Democratic side, according to the Ohio Daily Blog, “Two-time challenger Robin Wierauch (D-Napoleon), the assistant director of the Center for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University, is definitely in the race. Weirauch got 43% of the vote against Gillmor in 2006 and 33% in 2004. She and her advisors have been hoping that there would be no primary on the Democratic side, but I have been told that there are at least two other Democrats are seriously considering a bid. One is Appellate Judge James R. Sherck (D-Fremont), who ran unsuccessfully against Gillmor’s predecessor Delbert Latta (R) four times from 1978 to 1984. The other is Mike Grandillo (D-Tiffin), a city councilman and vice president at Tiffin University.”

It looks like Wood Co. may be of central importance here as many of the candidates have ties to the Bowling Green area.  It should be noted that Wood was Weirauch’s strongest county in 2006; she received 49% of the vote there.  (If you compare the maps of the 2006 U.S. House and 2006 U.S. Senate elections, you will notice that Weirauch, despite getting 43.1% district-wide, seemed to under-perform in Seneca and Sandusky because it was Gillmor’s base area.  Whereas Ted Strickland did as good or better in Seneca and Sandusky than in Wood Co., Weirauch performed significantly worse in Seneca and Sandusky compared to Wood Co.  Looking at another map, you can see that Weirauch out-performed John Kerry in all but 2 counties – Seneca and Sandusky – because of those counties  ties to Gillmor.)

Weirauch wrote several editorials published in the Toledo Blade, criticizing Rep. Gillmor for supposedly living outside the district with only a token address within the district so that he could claim residency – this factor may have contributed to Weirauch doing as good as she did (in addition to the Democratic wave in Ohio in 2006), and would not be of help to us when running against a truly local Republican candidate – so there are pluses and minuses here. 

You can also get coverage of this race on the Buckeye Blog: http://www.buckeyest…

Two recent posts:
http://www.buckeyest…

  http://www.buckeyest…

Part of writing this diary was to discuss a potential Weirauch candidacy and to discuss the other potential Democratic candidates.  Although I think that Weirauch was impressive in 2006, I am not necessarily advocating for her candidacy – I just don’t know enough about the dynamics here.  I am not from Ohio, so would definitely appreciate local opinion on this subject.  I do think, however, that we may be able to make this district competitive.

5) Ohio is becoming more competitive overall and putting up a strong candidate here for the special may help us along the road, especially in November 2008:

As we all know, Ohio will be one of the keys to winning in 2008.  The state is clearly moving our way (no need for a long discussion of this; we can all see the recent trends).  We will probably be looking at several competitive House races next year ?
http://ohio2006elect…

here’s another recent story re. OH-15 and the state of the local Republican party http://ohio15th.blog…

The key to us winning a U.S. House race in OH-5 would be to really, really energize our base. A very energized base, even if relatively small numerically, can be a potent tool to increase our voting power.  Winning here, or even coming close, might be beneficial to us in the near and long term future, particularly in November of next year.  Things like voting lists, party contacts, and other means to expand and keep track of Democratic voters are always useful. But also simply an increased level of participation from Democrats in this relatively “red” part of an increasingly “blue” state like Ohio may prove to be of great importance to us as we move towards 2008.

So, this is how I see OH-5.  I don’t know if we will win here in the special election, but I certainly see signs that it may be possible.  Despite Republican crowing that their candidates would be shoo-ins, we should still take at least a long look at this district.