Month: July 2007

In case you missed it, Public Policy Polling released a new poll (warning: PDF) today of the North Carolina Senate race, pitting Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole against several hypothetical Democratic challengers: state Rep. Grier Martin, state Sen. Kay Hagan, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.  But wait–this isn’t any ordinary poll; it’s an informed vote poll, where respondents (likely voters, in this case) hear a brief one-line bio about the lesser known-candidates:

“To compensate for the extremely low name recognition of state legislators, we added a short description of Martin and Hagan to the survey,” explained Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Martin was described as a “37 year-old two-term legislator” and “veteran of the War in Afghanistan,” while Hagan was a “five-term State Senator” and “chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.”

So take it with the appropriate grain of salt that Dole isn’t doing this badly against Grier Martin (at least, not yet):

Grier Martin (D): 37%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 43%

Kay Hagan (D): 27%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 43%

Elaine Marshall (D): 35%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 46%

MoE: ±4.2%

So who is Grier Martin?  Back in February, SSP diarist blue south gave us his profile:

Grier Martin is a relative newcomer to politics.  He is 37, and was first elected to the NC House in 2004.  There are two very important details though.  First, in 2004 he won a very expensive race against an incumbent with a large amount of personal income in a district that leans Republican.  A huge upset.  Just as importantly, he actually has name ID across the state, due to the fact that his father, DG Martin was the Attorney General for many years.  He has also taken some interesting stands in the legislature, including voting against the budget one year and voting against the creation of a lottery.  Additionally, he has military credentials.  After 9/11 he volunteered for the Army, and spent 2003 in Afghanistan.

His name has been mentioned in the rumor mill as someone contemplating a run.  To be honest, after Brad Miller, he is my top choice.  He has a gorgeous family, including a young daughter.  His age puts him square into the only age bracket that showed support for Dole in the last poll.  And, he is the type of candidate that has a background that would allow him to take progressive positions without being called a no good dirty, Washington, liberal.

Grier sounds like an interesting option now that a Brad Miller candidacy is off the table.  Like the poll suggests: he has the right profile.

Paging Chuck Schumer to the multi-colored courtesy phone, please.  Paging Chuck Schumer…

BlueNC has more.

Betty Ireland is the West Virginia Secretary of State, and, today, she announced she would not run for reelection, stating that the deteriorating health of her aging parents did not leave her enough time to run a campaign, ( http://www.dailymail… ). She is the only elected statewide official who is a Republican, which is very indicative of the state’s Democratic lean. It’s likely that the only reason won in 2004 was because her opponent was 94 year old has ben Ken Heckler, a long time rival of Nick Rahall, who won his congressional seat in 1976 when Heckler foolishly ran for Governor and ended up coming third in the Democratic primary, losing to some nobody named Jay Rockefeller.

This is a very important matter because Ireland was one the West Virginia GOP’s only rising stars. Their only other one can now be said to be Shelley Capito, and she might be out the door in 2008 election. State Democrats now have a much easier path to retake this seat and once again hold all statewide offices, and at the same time one of the state GOP’s most prominent public members loses most of her clout. If we could take out Capito, bang, we shatter every gain the WV-GOP’s made since Bush was elected in 2000. It’s a big deal, shatter their morale, their fundraising slumps, putting them further behind Democrats. We take out a possible threat against the open WV-Gov seat in 2012, or the likely open WV-Sen seat in 2012, (this is assuming that our candidate, State Sen. Unger, will win reelection in a possible rematch in 2010).

The race isn’t over now, but at least now Democrats don’t have to mount an insurgent campaign against a prominent, fairly popular State Republican and an incumbent. Now Democrats start off with the advantage, and if we nominate a strong candidate, the position should go back into Democratic hands, and, if we hold all our other statewide positions, we maintain our upper hand in 2012, and stunt the State GOP’s recent growth.

P.S. Please vote in the poll, it’s the only indicator I have of how many read this, and I really like knowing that, for curiosties sake.

A few weeks ago, we noted that Republican Ray LaHood was considering putting his name in the running for the Presidency of Bradley University.  Unfortunately for Democrats, LaHood has made his decision to stay put in the House:

Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) abruptly ended a public flirtation with the presidency of Bradley University on Tuesday, declaring himself out of the running for the top job at his alma mater and recommitted to his re-election campaign.

[…]

This was the second time that LaHood has considered leaving Congress; he also mulled a run for governor in 2006. In this case, he said, “I think I would have had a shot” at the Bradley job, but also conceded that the university was likely to pick someone with a doctoral degree, which he does not hold.

Republican insiders predicted this week that the lack of a doctorate would keep LaHood, an outspoken and often aisle-crossing congressional veteran, from landing the presidency.

The decision likely kills Democrats’ dreams of stealing LaHood’s GOP-leaning seat. LaHood said he would reschedule fundraisers he had canceled and expected the lost time wouldn’t hurt his chances next year.

Indeed: it would be a tough climb for a Democrat in the 18th.  With a PVI of R+5.5, Bush won this district by 16 points in 2004.  But given LaHood’s frequent flirtation with a career change, perhaps it will open up in the not too distant future.

As an aside, while I don’t often take swipes at Rahm Emanuel, I couldn’t help but cringe at this:

At least one Democrat welcomed his move. Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the Democratic caucus chairman and a longtime fan of LaHood’s cooperative style, said, “It’s Congress’s win, Bradley’s loss.”

LaHood didn’t let the decision-making process distract from his day job. He noted in the interview that he fielded a call from President Bush last week. They discussed immigration and the Iraq war, which faces a series of critical House votes.

“He asked me to hang in there with him,” LaHood said. “I am going to hang in there with him… I’m not bailing on him.”

Bleh.  Keeping around Bushbots like LaHood in the House is precisely my definition of “Congress’s loss”.

If you ever watched the movie “Top Gun”, this guy is the real thing and he’s running for Congress as a Democrat according to Raising Kaine.

As a Naval Flight Officer, I led over 200 people as a commanding officer of a fighter squadron and I was a TOPGUN instructor.  I am a combat veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and I was one of few aviators awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for valor in combat.  Upon my return, I worked directly for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I am a leader, and I understand first-hand the complexities of this war and the need to create an exit strategy to bring our troops home safely.

I have a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy.  At the graduate level, I have a Master of Arts in National Security Studies and a certificate in legislative studies from Georgetown University.  I’ve studied economics for a term at Oxford University in England.  I?ve completed a political candidate training program at UVA?s Sorensen Institute, and I was a national security fellow at MIT’s Seminar XXI fellowship program.  For a living, I sell Navy jet aircraft for Boeing. 

I am most proud of my role as husband to a wonderful wife and father to two terrific kids.  I ask you to join me as I fight to change America?s future and improve our lives in Virginia?s 11th District.  Please vote for me on November 4, 2008.

Well, he apparently assumes there will be no primary, which there will be if Tom Davis leaves the seat. This guy looks like he comes out on Central Casting and is definately worthy of a look.

(Cross-posted at Daily Kos.)

Things are heating up quickly for Chris Shays. As the Greenwich Time reports today, challenger Jim Himes is reporting he’s raised $352,000 in merely ten and a half weeks:

Trying to gain the attention of national party leaders with money and resources to spare in a targeted congressional race, Greenwich Democrat Jim Himes said yesterday that he has raised about $352,500 for his 2008 challenge of incumbent Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn.

“When I introduced myself to the voters in the 4th (congressional) District, the question was, ‘Is this guy for real?’ ” Himes said. “I think this shows a lot of enthusiasm. It shows that this campaign is for real and we’ve got a good shot.”…

A spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said Himes’ fundraising totals were impressive.

“This is a district that votes Democratic in presidential years, and Democrats are showing at an early stage that they’re active and standing behind Jim Himes,” said Carrie James of the committee. “So I think he’s a very strong candidate.”

Connecticut Local Politics chimes in on the success of the fledgling campaign:

Here are the takeaways: There is no chance that there will be a primary for the Democratic nomination. Shays is in serious trouble. Jim Himes can raise money.

And as a press release from the campaign notes, this is a record for any campaign at this point in a race against Shays. More from Jim:

“The people who have contributed — in amounts small and great — and those who have given of their time and energy — have shown that our District is ready for a different voice in Congress,” said Himes. “We want a Congressman who will put the chaos and confusion of an ill-conceived war behind us and move on to address the issues of the day: education, health care, transportation, energy independence and competent national security. Our working families in Bridgeport, our growing businesses in Stamford and our commuters from every corner deserve nothing less.”

“My pride today is mixed. Today a man half my age is shouldering a weapon and climbing aboard a transport that will deliver him to a foreign battlefield. He, more than any of us, has cause to reflect on how we choose those who will send him away or bring him home,” continued Himes. “Would he, or any of the brave men and women in our military, be interested in dollars raised? Or would he instead select a leader based on the caliber of his ideas and judgment? Thank you very much to everyone who has given of their time and resources to demonstrate their trust in me to do the job better. It is time for change.”

You can learn more about Jim here, or read his recent liveblog at Daily Kos here.

Disclosure: I am currently doing some early volunteer work online for Jim Himes.

UPDATE: Mark Udall hauled in $1.1 million+ in the second quarter and has $2.5 million cash on hand in his bid for Colorado’s open Senate seat.

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While we plan on posting a comprehensive chart listing all the fundraising action in hot Senate and House races (like we did here for the first quarter), the deadline for campaigns to file their reports is still under a week away–so let’s use this as a chance to profile some of the reports we’ve seen so far.

• WA-08: According to Horse’s Ass, Democrat Darcy Burner has raised $200K in the second quarter and has $185K left in the bank.  Not unimpressive.  Burner is pledging to run a different kind of campaign in 2008, and she’s started by hiring a better media guy: Dan Kully, who created the beloved ad Creating a Buzz for Jon Tester last year.
• NM-02: Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley just might have the most surprising fundraising total of them all so far this quarter: a very respectable $140K.  Given that McCamley is facing Republican incumbent Steve Pearce in the state’s most Republican-leaning district (at a PVI of R+5.7), reports like McCamley’s could be evidence of an increased sense of optimism among ambitious Democrats that many more Republican-leaning districts could be in play next year.
• MI-07: As noted in the comments by SSPer Fitzy, local attorney and Democrat David Nacht raised $160K in the second quarter in his bid to challenge freshman Rep. Tim Walberg.  While Nacht is not the only candidate for the Democratic nomination (former state Sen. Jim Berryman is another), Walberg Watch picks up the real significance of the numbers:

  This is great fundraising for Nacht, and more than a little refreshing– $160,000 is more than all the Democratic candidates from 2002 to 2006 combined.

• CO-04: Angie Paccione raised “more than” $100K.

If you’ve got any other numbers, post ’em in the comments.

From the Chicago Tribune:

There will be no redux for Tammy Duckworth in the 2008 election.

Duckworth, an Iraq War veteran now serving as director of the Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs, said Sunday that she has decided not to run again next year against U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) in the 6th Congressional District.

Roskam, an experienced state legislator before his election to Congress last year, proved to be one of the slicker Republican candidates of the 2006 cycle; despite receiving a well-funded challenge from Duckworth last year, his campaign succeeded in snagging Duckworth in skirmishes over illegal immigration while Iraq was mostly left off the table until the closing weeks.  He went on to win by a two-point margin while Democrats scored victories in twelve seats that were more Republican-leaning than Illinois’ 6th District.

While the DCCC has made some noise about Roskam’s far-right voting record in recent months, there are no other obvious names set to challenge the freshman incumbent next year.  It’s widely noted that IL-06 has been rapidly losing its traditionally strong Republican edge (while Gore lost this district by nine points, Kerry only trailed by six).  It would be a shame if Roskam would be able to escape 2008 without facing an aggressive challenger who would be willing to push Iraq as the number one issue facing the district, and the nation.

(Hat-tip to DailyKos diarist chipoliwog.)

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

There has been a flurry of developments in WV-02 during the last two weeks. All of them point to one conclusion: State Sen. John Unger’s challenge of vulnerable incumbent Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is a top-tier pick-up opportunity for the Democratic Party in 2008.

Unger–recruited by both netroots and the DCCC–has emerged as an early, well-positioned challenger to Capito. The major recent developments include:

* Potential challenger Anne Barth (W.Va. State Director for Sen. Robert Byrd) ended speculation and stated she is not running. This clears the path for a single strong Democratic Party nominee–it’s all but certain now that Unger will face no significant Democratic primary opposition.

* Unger held a successful fund-raising event in Washington, D.C. hosted by a Who’s Who of W.Va. and DCCC Reps. The event was officially hosted by our two W.Va. Dem. Reps. Mollohan (WV-01) and Rahall (WV-03), along with DCCC Chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen and DCCC Recruitment Chair Rep. Artur Davis.

* As part of their July 4th week campaign hitting vulnerable Republicans, the DCCC announced a series of radio commercials targeting Rep. Capito’s poor record of supporting veterans. This level of support from the DCCC is highly significant–this is a strong signal that WV-02 is a key target for 2008. (James L. has more details here.)

* Not long after the DCCC announcement, Pres. Bush announced he was visiting John Unger’s hometown, Martinsburg, W.Va. on July 4. Providing a safe harbor to her good friend Rep. Shelley Moore Capito greeted Bush with open arms at his time of need. Bush held a private, closed door morning speech with National Guard members and their families.

* Wasting no time after getting setup on ActBlue, Unger sent out his first email fund-raising appeal. Using Pres. Bush’s visit to show how out of touch Capito is with West Virginia values in “Bush and Capito Stick Together!“, Unger called for bringing our soldiers home from Iraq.

This is shaping up to be an exciting race. John Unger is a good fit for this district. He is similar to Rep. Rahall in that he’s more socially conservative (just like this district) than a typical member of the Progressive Netroots, but he is also adamant about issues of social and economic justice–and, that includes getting out of Iraq.

Written by Clem G., a W.Va. volunteer Netroots activist. Cross-posted at West Virginia Blue, the home of WV-02 coverage.

I believe in elections, and elections believe in me.

With the end of the Federal 2nd Quarter fundraising period, we’ve taken some time to look through the data we’ve collected at ActBlue. Each day this week we released some data regarding the activity across ActBlue, both for the quarter and how that compares to our lifetime statistics for the past 3 years. I’ve analyzing it for trends and patterns that may shed light into the giving habits of Democratic donors at the early phase of campaigns.

Here’s a review of the week.

Tuesday
Totals, donors, and contributions- find out info on the raw numbers system wide.

Wednesday
Candidates- find out who’s hot by the number of donors and dollars.

Thursday
Fundraising Pages- find out the top 10 pages on ActBlue by donors and dollars.

Friday
State Level Activity- find out what’s up in non-federal races and who’s leading.