Month: July 2007

When a person is chosen as a veep nominee can the funds s/he raised be used in the presidential contest?  I’m wondering about this because it might be why Susan Collins (wRong-ME) is still supporting Iraq.  She’s be immensely supportive of the Mccain and the war, and her continued support, coupled with the her “moderate” status, and location would make her a strategic choice for veep.  This is of course assuming Mccain can bring his campaign out of the dumps.  It’s also an interesting parallel between the republicans now, and the democrats of 1968.  McCain/collins would be their version of Humphrey/Muskie. 

We here at the SSP hope everyone has a great Fourth of July holiday. We’ll be taking a vacation through the end of the week, so in the meantime, feel free to use this as an open thread.

See you next week!

(If you’ve got any other Q2 numbers, post them in the comments. – promoted by James L.)

[Originally posted today at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in.  The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised “about” $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000.  UNO Dems reminds us that “Bob Kerrey’s still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account.”  Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million.  Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.

Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter.  (Retirement announcement on the way?)

The commutation of Scooter Libby’s prison sentence wasn’t really a surprise. We already knew the President believed in amnesty.

But the silence from our Congressman is troubling. Mike McCaul fancies himself an authority on national security and is a member of the Committee on Standards of Official Conduct.

Does he condone the treasonous act of outing a clandestine intelligence agent?

Standing by your friends is one thing. Standing by a high government official convicted of lying to federal agents to cover up Dick Cheney’s campaign to take the nation to war in Iraq under false pretenses is another.

We need a change in Washington – now.

Please join me at http://www.dangrantforcongress.com/ to see how we can make a fresh start in a new direction.

According to the Buckeye State Blog, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy is set to have the primary field all to herself in her rematch bid against faux-moderate Republican Deborah Pryce:

I’m getting highly reliable reports that this morning Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks announced her intention not to make a formal bid for Congress in the OH-15 race. Apparently Commissioner Brooks called Commissioner Kilroy and informed her of the news first.

Studious readers of the Swing State Project might know that I’m generally not optimistic about House rematches, with certain exceptions: scandal, or when the challenger turns a low-profile shell campaign into a serious threat (e.g. Paul Hodes).  We all saw how four years of the same campaign worked for Lois Murphy (PA-06) and Diane Farrell (CT-04) last year.  Mary Jo Kilroy is no exception, but she could have a possible opening if she can reorient her campaign message.  Searching high and low on Youtube, I couldn’t find a single TV spot from Kilroy’s 2006 campaign hitting Pryce on Iraq directly: not from her, not from the DCCC, not from any of the third-party groups who dropped some serious coin into Ohio’s 15th last year.  All I can find is the standard stuff: bio fluff, fiscal responsibility, veteran’s benefits, congressional pay raises, perscription drug prices, etc.  The only Iraq-related ad produced by Kilroy that I could find was this one featuring a disabled Iraq vet, but its message has much more to do with trying to prove toughness on security matters (“immediate wiretapping!”) rather than opposing the war or even calling for change in Iraq.  Now, it’s entirely possible that Kilroy aired a series of hard-hitting Iraq ads that didn’t find their way to Youtube, but given the sheer volume of OH-15 ads available on the site, it doesn’t seem likely.

If Kilroy truly failed to exploit the Iraq issue, and if she’s prepared to reverse course, then she may have a legitimate shot at giving Pryce another serious run.  But if we’re going to see another two years of giving Pryce a pass on Iraq, color me unimpressed.

Well 7 more districts now have candidates:
CA-44,
NJ-05,
NY-23,
NY-26,
OH-14,
PA-16,
VA-10,

But 2 are now back to uncontested:
FL-25,
GA-10,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

305 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 72 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 72
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 36
Districts without any candidates – 91

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41,
CA-44,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-23,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
PA-16,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-14,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
PA-18,
SC-04,
WV-02,

3) The following 36 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-10,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
IL-06,
IN-03,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-11,

4) And last but not least the following 91 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-25,
GA-10,
ID-02,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and West Virginia. Thats 16 states with a full slate (17 when I can conform Unger in WV-02) and 6 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in VA-06 and TX-11, 2 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

According to Todd Hill at the Burnt Orange Report, State Rep. Rick Noriega is set to form an exploratory committee in one week to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn.  This move would put him up against trial lawyer Mikal Watts for the Democratic nomination.  Watts has already shown an early hustle, helping raise $1.1M for the DSCC back in April, and injecting $3.8 million of his own funds into his Senate campaign a few weeks ago.  Noriega, a Houston Democrat who has been the target of a draft campaign, didn’t appear daunted at the time, and has been busy preparing for a run after his wife’s recent election for the at-large Houston City Council district formerly held by the one and only Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.  According to the Austin American-Statesman:

Noriega, a fifth-term Democratic state representative from Houston, said he won’t finalize plans until he and his wife, Melissa, settle their finances, partly by selling property in East Austin. But he has already committed to a year’s leave from his job as a manager for CenterPoint Energy. (Emphasis added)

And while Watts will still have his impressive financial prowess, Noriega will have the support of many of his colleagues in the state legislature: 49 of his 68 fellow Democrats in the Texas House have signed a public letter supporting the draft efforts.

The Statesman gives a better taste of the upcoming Noriega candidacy:

Watts and Noriega paint Cornyn as weak and obedient to President Bush, a critique that Cornyn disputes.

Noriega, whose great-grandmother crossed into Texas from Mexico in 1916, is author of a law permitting in-state college tuition rates for illegal immigrants.

He said Senate inaction on immigration showed Cornyn’s inability to work across party lines. Cornyn, like many Republicans, did not go along with what had been pitched as compromise legislation bringing Democrats and the White House together.

Noriega favored the bill.

Noriega accused Cornyn of pandering to a “fringe ideology” by voting to have a fence built on stretches of the U.S.-Mexico border. Noriega called the fence a waste of money unlikely to stem illegal immigration.

“Doesn’t make sense,” Noriega said of Cornyn’s position. “It’s a function of a lack of understanding, inexperience, not listening to the professionals on the ground.”

Noriega favors removing U.S. troops from Iraq. He doesn’t want to see more friends coming home in boxes.

Noriega said that if he runs, he’ll talk up the idea of Americans committing to public service: “The question becomes: What do we do individually to ensure that we as a nation are on the right path?”

As long as this primary remains “good clean fun” (a tall order, but it is my understanding that both candidates have pledged to run positive campaigns), a Watts-Noriega battle could do a lot for raising the profile of this race and energizing the grassroots across Texas. 

Let the games begin.

From the Norwich Bulletin:

Sean Sullivan admits his first Federal Elections Commission report to be filed in two weeks won’t make many people stand up and take notice of his candidacy.

The presumptive Republican congressional candidate in Connecticut’s 2nd District said this week he’ll likely report between $25,000 and $30,000 raised since entering the race in early April. Those numbers will pale in comparison to incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney’s, D-2nd District, filing, which should show the freshman lawmaker well past the $500,000 mark.

So Sullivan, a guy who has been touted as a potentially strong recruit to Courtney, couldn’t crack the $30,000 mark in the first full three months of his campaign.  Meanwhile, Courtney reportedly pulls in over $500K in the second quarter, which will add nicely to the $380K cash-on-hand he reported in his April filings.  Does Sullivan have a clue?

With no previous political experience, Sullivan said he has spent much of the first three months of his candidacy simply learning how to run a campaign.

“I’ve been educating myself on what needs to be done,” he said. “I’ve talked with the folks at the Republican National Congressional Committee in Washington. I’ve been talking with (former Congressman) Rob (Simmons) and a number of others, including Chris Healy, who have in the past played a major role in Rob’s past campaigns.”

Sullivan chuckled at the advice national party officials gave him.

“They told me I needed to raise $1 million by the end of the year,” he said. “Raising $100,000 might be more realistic, like Rob did when he first challenged (former Congressman) Sam Gejdenson. But the bottom line, before I can expect any significant help from the party, national or state, I first have to prove myself.” (emphasis added)

Proving yourself, in the bare-knuckle world of congressional politics, would include the ability to raise the necessary funds to display viability, Sean.  And I love the laff-and-a-haff line about raising $100K before the year is over.  Yup, that kind of talk will definitely inspire the decision-makers over at the NRCC.

It’s got to be incredibly dispiriting for many potential GOP candidates to be facing supposedly vulnerable freshmen who are on pace to raise $1 million or more in their first year in the House, as the DCCC is pressuring its freshmen members to do.  And because fundraising superiority has always been one of the ways Republicans have won, it puts them at an even huger disadvantage than Democrats would have been in the reverse situation.

(Hat tip: Connecticut Local Politics)

Anyone following the run-up to the 2008 election in Michigan’s 7th district can be glad to know that a serious contender has emerged. I have heard that David Nacht has raised $155,000 this past quarter. This is exactly what this race needs, a real challenger who can generate excitement and support. Through his actions and words, Tim Walberg has proven that the 7th district is a winnable district for Democrats in ’08. Nacht’s ability to raise money puts him in a strong position to challenge Walberg. Nacht not only has the ability to raise money, but he has also worked for John Glenn, gaining DC experience, and successfully unseated a Republican township board, showing his ability to build and sustain grassroots support. Fundraising success, grassroots support, and practical experience all serve as a great foundation for making a successful run at Congress. If you are looking for more information on David Nacht, check out his website, www.nacht4congress.com.