Month: July 2007

Well 5 more districts now have candidates:
AL-01,
CA-42,
IN-03,
PA-18,
WV-02,
Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

310 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 77 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 77
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 33
Districts without any candidates – 89

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41,
CA-42,
CA-44,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13,
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-03,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-23,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
PA-16,
PA-18,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-14,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WV-02,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
SC-04,
TX-26,
VA-11,

3) The following 33 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-10,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
PA-09,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,
WI-06,

4) And last but not least the following 89 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-25,
GA-10,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,
WI-05,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Thats 17 states with a full slate, and 5 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in CA-42, TX-11 and VA-06, 3 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Yesterday was the deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their fundraising reports for the second quarter of 2007.  Like we did for the first quarter, we’ve amassed a list of noteworthy fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers.  While this list is seriously mega, it is not meant to be comprehensive.  If we’ve missed anything, please post the numbers in the comments.  And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding.

Scroll buttons ready?  Away we go!

A few quick notes:

• Republican challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: Jim Ryun (KS-02) and Andrew Saul (NY-19).
  
• Democratic challengers who outraised Republican incumbents: Charlie Brown (CA-04), Russ Warner (CA-26), Jim Himes (CT-04), Michael Montagano (IN-03), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Andrew Duck (MD-06), David Nacht (MI-07), Kay Barnes (MO-06), Eric Massa (NY-29), Vic Wulsin & Steve Black (OH-02), John Boccieri (OH-16), Darcy Burner (WA-08).  Go Team Blue!
  
• Republican incumbents who were out-raised by other Republicans: Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01), Jean Schmidt (OH-02) and Ralph Regula (OH-16).
  
• Democratic incumbents who were out-raised by other Democrats: Steve Cohen (TN-09).
  
• Anatomy of a Dud: Sean Sullivan, just a few months ago, was a highly touted Republican recruiting coup in Connecticut against freshman Rep. Joe Courtney.  As the former commander of the Groton naval base, he could conceivably have some appeal in the district, where Groton holds a special mystique.  However, after three full months of campaigning, Sullivan has only $31K raised and $14K on hand to show for it.  According to The Politico, Republicans in Washington are plenty furious at his “disastrous” fundraising pace, and he’s now persona non grata in DC.  Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Courtney is on pace to amass $1 million before the year is over.  I love it.
  
• NY-20 and PA-08: Before today, the talk was all about how impressive Mark Kirk’s (R-IL) fundraising pace is.  Leave it to Kirsten Gillibrand and Pat Murphy to blow his take out of the water.  Gillibrand raised a massive $707K, and Murphy collected over $750K.  Gillibrand’s tally sure makes the not-insignificant fundraising reports of challengers Sandy Treadwell and Richard Wager, well, a little less significant.  And you’ve gotta believe that Murphy’s staggering figure is going to give any would-be challenger a serious pause.
  
• AZ-01 and CA-04: Rick Renzi’s and John Doolittle’s incredible shrinking cash-on-hand figures sure look like ominous signs for the embattled incumbents.
  
• WV-02: Can someone please tell John Unger to file his July quarterly report?  At the time of writing this, I cannot find Unger’s report in the FEC database.  Inquiring minds want to know how much support he’s attracting.
  
• Take a look at the CoH figures for most of these potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents.  The thing that you should note is that very few of them are bigger than $1 million.  I suspect that that is the lingering effect of 2006: many of these incumbents, realizing that it was a wave year, dumped all or most of their warchests on ensuring their re-election.  Yet another blow to the traditional Republican money advantage.
  
• UPDATE: Unger’s report is in.  Less than $27K raised, but this isn’t a Sean Sullivan-type report since Unger only officially filed for the race around the end of the quarter.  He’ll have to make a good showing in the third quarter, though.

A couple of weeks ago, Jon Bruning released his Q2 fundraising numbers, coming in at over $720,000 for the quarter, a very good number for a primary challenger.

Now, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who two weeks ago said that his campaign would be “well beyond” the amount raised by Bruning, has clocked in at $387,000, a large portion of that coming from a May fundraiser featuring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The conventional wisdom crystallizing on the ground here is that Hagel is blocking for Johanns – though it’s unclear if Johanns will get in the race, and the longer he waits, the stronger Bruning looks.

As we move closer to the fall, expect some movement one way or the other.

Let me first say, I have never met Dan Grant nor do I live in TX-10, but I am a young Texas Democrat who regularly commutes from TX-22 (Friendswood/Houston) to TX-26 (Denton/Fort Worth) for college.

I was just checking the FEC records because, well, I was bored and I noticed the numbers for the Texans who have filed their reports thus far. According to said reports, Democratic challenger for TX-10, Dan Grant, performed admirably.

Q2 2007
Amount Raised: $72,765.08
COH: $134,482.52
Debts: $0
http://query.nictusa…

For a district hovering somewhere in our third tier, $72.7 thousand is not too shabby. However the real amazing part is when this is compared to the Republican incumbent, Mike McCaul.

Q2 2007
Amount Raised: $131,384.58
COH: $133,387.41
Debts: $171,652.23
http://query.nictusa…

Ignoring the outstanding debt McCaul’s campaign has ramped up, Grant still has more cash. If McCaul were to pay off all of his debt today he’d be $38,624.82 in the hole. This is an amazing advantage Grant has raised over McCaul and I hope the DCCC takes notice.

It is important to note that Grant does have a democratic challenge ahead of him. Larry Joe Doehrty (sp?) who is known for his tv court room drama, Texas Justice, is in the democratic primary as well. While I am personally rooting for Grant due to his efforts in reaching out to blogs, he has posted here on swingstate several times before, it is important that we support whomever wins the democratic nomination next year especially since McCaul won with a pathetic 55% last year.

If you would like to learn more about Dan Grant please visit his website:
http://www.dangrantf…

I’m sure donations would also be welcome to keep his momentum going:
http://www.actblue.c…

P.S. While I like commenting (have been for almost 2 years), this is my first diary. How’d I do?

What’s on your mind this weekend?

UPDATE (David): The Nashville City Paper’s political blog says that GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander is being talked up as a possible replacement for the departing chancellor of Vanderbilt University. If there’s any truth to this, that would make him at least the fourth member of Congress this year to be considered for a move into academia. SSP readers will recall that Reps. Meehan (MA-05), Hulshof (MO-09) and LaHood (IL-18) were the others, though only Meehan pulled the trigger.

So the question of course is, should Lamar! step down, who would Dem Gov. Phil Bredesen appoint to fill his place?

Ralph Regula is an absolute relic in the House of Representatives.  Now in his 18th term and approaching his 83rd birthday, he has begun to show some significant signs of rust lately, especially given his lackluster performances in his 2006 primary and general election campaigns, where he won only 58% of the vote against low-profile challengers in each race.  It’s only natural then, that Regula, now in the House Minority, would be the subject of intense retirement speculation.  The speculation is so intense, that Republican state Senator J. Kirk Schuring has put his name forward as the heir apparent in the event of Regula’s retirement.  According to CQ Politics, Schuring has pledged only to run if Regula steps aside.  Democrats, for their part, have been eyeing the Democratic-trending 16th District hungrily, and have recruited a strong challenger in state Sen. John Boccieri, an air force veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The real doozie, though, lies in the second quarter numbers:

John Boccieri (D): $155K raised; $145K cash-on-hand
J. Kirk Schuring (R): $136K raised; $130K CoH
Ralph Regula (R-inc.): $82K raised; $164K CoH

If Regula is at all serious about going for a 19th term, he might want to pick up the slack.  It speaks volumes that Schuring is apparently being seen as the better investment opportunity by GOP donors.

Has the DCCC found its man to challenge Republican Jon Porter of Nevada?  According to Roll Call, local Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief that Clark County deputy district attorney Robert Daskas plans to officially enter the race in a few weeks:

Roll Call has learned that after a number of discussions with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas plans to file as a House candidate with the Federal Election Commission by summer’s end if not sooner – provided he sails through the final vetting stages of the DCCC’s recruiting process.

“He’s been in talks with the DCCC,” said one Democratic source, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the recruitment process. “[Daskas] is one they’re focusing on at this point.”

Daskas’ presumptive candidacy would come after months of DCCC failures to field a high-profile challenger to Porter, who Democrats say is increasingly vulnerable in a pure swing suburban Las Vegas district. A Democratic poll from April suggests that just more than one-quarter of local voters want to re-elect Porter and about one-third “want to consider someone else.”

The Garin Hart Yang survey of 405 likely voters, conducted March 13-17, had a 4.9-point margin of error.

Indeed: after flying below the top-tier radar for much of the 2006 campaign, former Harry Reid aide Tessa Hafen surged in the closing weeks of the campaign, eventually falling short of toppling Porter by 1% and less than 4,000 votes in the propeller-shaped third district.  Close elections are par for the course in this district: Al Gore won this area by 1% in 2000, and Bush edged Kerry by that same margin in 2004.

Is Daskas the right guy to send Porter (an apt name for a reliable bagman of the Bush Administration) packing?  If he runs this kind of campaign, I could dig it:

A Daskas candidacy likely would hammer away at Porter’s perceived ties to major White House policy blunders. Last year, Porter voted with the White House 93 percent of the time. In 2007, he voted to approve of the troop escalation in Iraq but was one of 51 House Republicans who voted to override President Bush’s veto of expanded stem-cell research funding.

“He’s been blanket support in the war in Iraq,” a Democratic source said. “He’s a puppet for the Bush administration and every frustration that people have with the Bush administration … they need to realize that Jon Porter is a staunch supporter.”

It may be common sense on this side of the fence, but Republicans like Porter can’t seem to get this simple fact through their thick skulls: 2006 was Round One of the referendum on Iraq.  2008 could very likely be Round Two.

Crossposted at West Virginia Blue.

I’ve watched with bemusement at the effort by supporters of vulnerable Rep. Shelley Moore Capito to throw mud at State Sen. John Unger only to have it splash back on Capito.

The latest effort by Capito’s supporters to protect their vulnerable Rubberstamp Republican has been to criticize what Unger does for a living and make it sound like there is controversy where none exists.

Now considering how badly the last effort by the right worked, you would think they would learn.  Of course, they don’t. They’re rightwingers.

Jake Stump of the conservative-leaning Charleston Daily Mail does a good job debunking the latest smear effort by the rightwingers.

Unger acknowledges he has what some might consider a vague, confusing job title. He’s senior adviser of homeland security and economic development for the National Energy Technology Laboratory, part of the U.S. Department of Energy with offices in Morgantown.

But he is an employee of EG&G, a Gaithersburg, Md.-based national defense contractor that provides engineering and technical services. The company provides direct-labor employees who are paid based on their performance with contracted clients.

Now some of Unger’s critics are too stupid to understand the complexities of federal government contracting. But others are simply Republican political hacks who know they haven’t found any dirt to throw at Unger so they have to make it up through implication.

But like an earlier effort, see here for an example – their efforts end up unintentionally making Capito look bad.

Here’s Stump on how Unger got the job:

An employee at the National Energy Technology Laboratory recommended him for the EG&G job, Unger said.

“I’m not a federal employee, but I work with federal officials,” he said. “The reason I don’t talk much about the particulars of the job is because we’re dealing with sensitive materials and homeland security.”

The senator said he believes the company tapped him not because of his political background, but for his experiences overseas.

He has worked with Mother Teresa in India during monsoons and riots in 1990. There he coordinated the distribution of relief supplies.

Before that, he worked for the United States Refugee Program in Hong Kong and helped Vietnamese refugee children there.

He’s also aided in disaster relief efforts in Turkey and Iraq, where he has traveled twice.

Unger said those experiences provided him with knowledge concerning international relations and security.

“Part of our training in Iraq dealt with security,” Unger said. “When you’re working with government in the area of human relief, there’s a large component of security.”

In other words, the Rhodes scholar Unger not only can speak knowledgeably on homeland security issues, he already has experience at international issues. Plus he did missionary work which shows he cares compassionately about people.

Compare that experience to Capito’s, whose only qualification before her election in 2000 was she was former Gov. Arch Moore’s daughter and she has a pleasant smile.

In an earlier smear attempt, Republican strategist Gary Abernathy tried to put words in the mouth of Unger’s friend and WEPM cohost Chris Strovel to make up dirt on Unger even though Strovel had said nothing critical about Unger.

Just like before, there is nothing there.

You don’t  have to take my word for it. Thanks to Stump’s reporting you can hear it from Unger’s employer:

Brent Armstrong, vice president of the Energy, Environment and Health Services Department at EG&G, confirmed Unger’s employment with the company.

“He is earning a living,” Armstrong said. “I’m not sure what the confusion is.”

Two specific projects Unger is contracted to work on with the laboratory include the modern grid initiative, which updates the nation’s electricity system, and ensuring that infrastructure is in place for securing energy supplies.

Armstrong said he’s heard no complaints from the laboratory regarding Unger’s job performance. Unger is required to submit monthly progress reports on each project.

“I don’t care who they are,” Armstrong said. “If they’re not cutting the mustard, they won’t have a job. He’s been doing a job the client is very pleased with.”

Unger makes his employer happy. He’s knowledgeable and experienced at national security issues, energy issues, and international issues.

Capito has a pleasant smile. She’s probably quite personable to talk with. People say she’s quite devoted to her family. I’ve never questioned that. But as a Rubberstamp Republican, she has shown poor judgement time after time and as a continued supporter of occupying Iraq in the midst of a complex sectarian civil war that is bankrupting the country and making us less secure, she has blood on her hands. She has failed to show the wisdom of our other Congressional representatives Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall on Iraq. She has floundered as a Congressional representative, allying herself with suspected criminals like Republicans Tom Delay (she was the largest recipient of his illegal PAC contributions) and Mark Foley (she formed a political action committee with him even while he cyberstalked underage male pages and she served on the Page Board that was to protect them). Did she intentionally ally herself with so many Republicans now caught up in criminal scandals? Real scandals unlike the ones the rightwingers keep trying to make up about Unger. I don’t know what is in her heart.

I do know that Unger is knowledgeable and makes his employer happy with the work he does and as a constituent of WV-02 I want to hire him to represent all of us in the District in Congress in 2008.

There are a lot of reasons to like Jim Himes, not the least of which is his remarkable hustle against Chris Shays in the second quarter of 2007:

Jim Himes (D): $352K raised
Chris Shays (R-inc.): $280K raised, $364K cash-on-hand

Of course, it’ll take a lot more than just giant sacks full of money to topple the slippery Shays, but Himes has shown some savvy at this early stage in the game.  Check out his recent liveblog at DailyKos (a great and enjoyable read) for more.

UPDATE: From a Jim Himes press release tonight:

Jim Himes Statement on Chris Shays’ Vote Today Against the Responsible Redeployment from Iraq Act

Stamford, CT — Affordable housing executive, businessman and Democratic Congressional candidate Jim Himes issued the following statement today in response to Chris Shays’ vote against HR 2956, the Responsible Redeployment from Iraq Act, which requires the Secretary of Defense to begin the redeployment of troops from Iraq within 120 days, limiting our presence in Iraq by April 1, 2008. 

“Chris Shays’ vote today is a betrayal of the trust of the people of the 4th Congressional District.  Rep. Shays promised voters last year that he would support a timeline for troop withdrawal from Iraq, but since the election, not only has he failed to support timelines for ending the war, he has enthusiastically supported President Bush’s escalation of the war.

“Since the so-called “surge” supported by Shays began earlier this year, nearly 600 more American troops have been killed in Iraq.  While Chris Shays continues to support spending $329 million dollars a day in Iraq with no end in sight, he is neglecting the real needs of the people of the 4th Congressional District.

“Today, Rep. Shays called again for a new Iraq Study Group report, while disregarding the most important recommendation of the Iraq Study Group: to end major combat operations in Iraq by spring 2008. Rep. Shays’ vote today not only goes against ISG recommendations, it is in direct violation of his campaign promise to the people of the 4th District.  After 5 years of Chris Shays steadfastly supporting Bush’s failed Iraq policy, it’s time for a change.”

More like this, please.