Month: September 2007

And yet another Republican Congressman decides they're just not fit for life in the minority: 

U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, R-Minn., will not seek a 10th term, said two state Republican officials. 

The officials spoke on the condition that they not be identified so as not to pre-empt Ramstad's announcement. Ramstad's office had scheduled a news conference for 3 p.m. in Minnetonka.

Ramstad's district is seriously competitive for Democrats. The district has a PVI of R+0.5 and supported Bush over Kerry by only 3 points. This seat should quickly become a top DCCC target.

(h/t to a familiar name over at TPM)

Update: Heavy analysis of the district and potential candidates at MNPublius.

Race Tracker: MN-03

First of all, I apologize for the length of this diary.  I started researching this Congressional District and ran into a lot of information, and have apparently tried to include it all here ?

Yahoo News – Fri Sep 14, 8:48 PM ET – Elections set to fill seat of Ohio rep.

http://news.yahoo.co…

COLUMBUS, Ohio – “Gov. Ted Strickland on Friday set Nov. 6 and Dec. 11 as the dates for special primary and general elections to pick a successor to U.S. Rep. Paul Gillmor, a Republican who died earlier this month.

Gillmor died in an apparent fall down the stairs at his suburban Washington apartment.

The 5th District covers all or parts of 16 northwest Ohio counties, stretching from suburban Toledo to northern Ashland County.

The primary on Nov. 6 coincides with this year’s general election. The Dec. 11 election will determine the winner, who would face election again in November 2008 to retain the seat.

So far, only two candidates have announced that they will be in the race.

State Rep. Bob Latta, who lost to Gillmor in a 1988 Republican primary by 27 votes, said he will run for the seat. Latta’s father, Republican Rep. Delbert Latta, represented the district from 1959 to 1989.

Democrat Robin Weirauch, who works in economic and community research at Bowling Green State University, also will make another bid for the seat. She lost to Gillmor in 2004 and 2006. No Democrat has held the seat since the 1930s.”

The Ohio Daily Blog notes that more candidates may join in on the Republican and Democratic side:
http://www.ohiodaily…

From everything I have read online it looks like this is a strongly Republican seat and Republicans think they have the district in the bag:

http://rothenbergpol…
“The 5th District gave President Bush over 60% in the 2004 election, and, though Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown carried the district in 2006, Republicans start with a significant advantage.”

and from the wingnut Human Events: “Will it Be ‘Rep. Gillmor II’ Or ‘Rep. Latta II’?”
http://www.humaneven… 

Despite the Republicans’ confidence in holding onto this district, I think the Democratic Party should make a valiant effort to be competitive here in the upcoming special election.  Several reasons come to mind re. why we should make an effort here and I will outline these reasons below.  Before going there, however, I wanted to give a few basic stats re. the district:

This district voted 61.0% for Bush and 38.5% for Kerry in 2004 (see map for break-down by county).  In 2000 it was Bush 57.5%, Gore 39.2%.  However, the 2000 numbers apply to the old district boundaries, and cannot be compared directly to the 2004 numbers.  Ohio Republicans made the district more Republican in redistricting, by approx. 2.1 pts., by taking out all or parts of relatively more Democratic Ottawa, Erie and Lorain counties, while adding all or parts of more Republican Ashland, Crawford, Wyandot and Fulton counties.  In 1996, again under the old boundaries, Bill Clinton lost to Bob Dole here by only 2 pts. (44-42).

There are 16 counties wholly or partially in the current district.  The district can be divided geographically and politically into roughly two parts:

The eastern part includes Toledo suburbs and all areas east – including Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron, Crawford counties and parts of Lucas, Wyandot and Ashland counties. The 5 counties –Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron and the Lucas part comprise 50.3% of the district’s population according to 2000 Census.  These are the most Democratic counties in the district (all 5 voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, and for Sherrod Brown in the 2006 U.S. Senate race — in both instances differently from the 11 other counties in the current district — which voted Republican).  The more recently added counties here (Crawford, Wyandot, Ashland) have 10.9% of district’s population.  This eastern area has also been the political base of long-term Rep. Gillmor and his politically active wife Karen Gillmor.  Both Paul and Karen Gillmor at one point also represented a State Senate district centered on Seneca and Sandusky counties. 

The western part of the district encompasses all or parts of Williams, Fulton, Defiance, Henry, Paulding, Putnam, Van Vert and Mercer counties and 38.7% of the district’s population.  This area is also relatively more Republican than the rest of the district.

Now, to proceed to why we should take a look at seriously contesting here:

1) District is indeed quite Republican but Democratic candidates have won here in the recent past.  Additionally, Democrats have won even more Republican House seats in the recent past:

Despite winning only 5 counties here in 2006, Sherrod Brown actually carried this district with approx. 51% of the vote (Brown came within one point of winning in 3 other counties in the district).  It is interesting to note that Brown lost five Congressional Districts in Ohio, including OH-2.  Ted Strickland did even better here in his gubernatorial bid, winning by a 10 point margin (53.5-43.5) against Blackwell.  Strickland carried all but 3 counties in the district.  (Incidentally, OH-2 was the only congressional district Strickland lost.)

In 2006 Democrats won 8 seats (including 2 takeovers) in districts which are more Republican (using Bush’s 2004 numbers) than OH-5:

GA-8  Bush 61.3% Marshall 50.6%
IN-8  Bush 61.5% Ellsworth 60.7%
MS-4  Bush 68.3% Taylor 79.9%
MO-4  Bush 64.2% Skelton 67.7%
ND-AL  Bush 62.9% Pomeroy 65.7%
TX-17  Bush 69.9% Edwards 58.1%
TX-22  Bush 64.4% Lampson 51.8%
UT-2  Bush 66.1% Matheson 59.0%

Due to special circumstances surrounding Lampson’s victory, it really cannot be compared to anything else.  Ellsworth, however, ran against a scandal-free incumbent and won with over 60% of the vote in a district Bush won with over 60%.  In addition, many other seats not included on the above list are very, very Republican, yet continue to elect Democrats to Congress.  For example, SD-AL voted 59.9% for Bush, yet Herseth won with 69.1% in 2006.

2) Democratic candidate in last election made an unexpectedly decent showing here (despite being highly outspent):

The last time this district elected a Democrat was Frank Kniffin in 1936.  Since the 1938 election, only Republican congressmen have been elected here (Cliff Clevenger – served 1939-1959; Delbert Latta 1959-1989; Paul Gillmor 1989-2007).  Nevertheless, the Democratic nominee in 2006, Robin Weirauch won 43.1% of the vote here to Gillmor’s 56.9%.  Her 43.1% was an improvement of 10.2% over her result in 2004 when she challenged Gillmor for the first time: http://www.buckeyest…

http://www.buckeyest…
Weirauch’s 43.1% in 2006 occurred despite the fact that she was vastly outspent (569K for Gillmor to 117K for Weirauch;  http://www.opensecre…),
was running against an entrenched incumbent, and the fact that the race was not at all targeted by the Democratic Party.  Her 43.1% was also the highest Democratic U.S. House percentage in the district since 1982.

Weirauch’s November 2006 percentage was also higher than the Democratic percentage in the following seats which received more attention: CO-4 (Paccione, D 42.8; Musgrave, R 45.9; Eidsness, Reform 11.3); MN-6 (Wetterling D, 42.1; Bachmann, R 50.1; Binkowski, Independence 7.8%); NE-1 (Moul, D 41.3; Fortenberry, R 58.8); OH-12 (Shamansky, D 41.9; Tiberi, R 58.1); VA-10 (Feder, D 41.0; Wolf, R 57.3; two others 1.7) and came close to other targeted seats (CA-50, Busby 43.4; FL-9, Busansky 44.1; KY-4, Lucas 43.4 to name a few).  Granted, not all of these seats were the “top tier” in 2006.  Ken Lucas certainly was from what I remember.  On the other hand, after having lost in a June 2006 special election, Francine Busby, was no longer at the top of the Democratic lists for November.  Also, as you can see, there were a few third party candidates in some of these races to complicate the picture.  Nevertheless, unknown Weirauch clearly did better than some of the Democrats in these first and second tier races — fellow Ohio candidate Shamansky (in a one-on-one race with Tiberi) stands out among them.

It should also be noted that OH-2 which voted 63.9% for Bush in 2004, came within 2 points of electing a Democratic congressperson both in the 2005 special – Paul Hackett 48.4% and in 2006 – Victoria Wulsin 49.3%.  In a theoretical universe, with all other things being even, if OH-2 was as Democratic as OH-5 (61.0% for Bush in 2004 – a difference of 2.9% less Republican than OH-2) then Hackett and Wulsin would have made it over the top.  Of course, we can’t compare apples and oranges here (and the unique issue of Jean Schmidt being such a divisive figure), but looking at just the sheer numbers, OH-5 may not be as hopeless as the Republicans would like us to believe.

3) District is now open seat and so anything can happen:

Open seats have a way of sometimes producing unexpected results.  The Paul Hackett race in OH-2 is a good example.  Although Hackett didn’t win, he came very close in that very Republican district.  Here’s two names mentioned above in discussing Democrats representing very Republican districts:  Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL) originally won in a special 2004 election to replace Republican Bill Janklow.  Gene Taylor succeeded a Republican in MS-4 via a special election in 1989 in a district that has not supported the Democratic presidential candidate since 1956.  Also in 1989, Jill Long (a relatively unknown university lecturer) won a previously Republican-held and politically very Republican seat in IN-4 in a special election.  (IN-4 was relabeled as IN-3 in 2002 and incidentally adjoins OH-5 directly to the west.  Democrat Tom Hayhurst made a great showing here in 2006 — 45.7% against Rep. Mark Souder in a district which Bush carried by 68.3% in 2004).  Although a Republican vs. Republican race, the recent upset in GA-10 also comes to mind in what can happen in a special election.

4) Republican candidates here may not be as strong as the Republicans would like us to believe, especially if they get into a nasty primary fight:

According to the Ohio Daily Blog (http://www.ohiodaily…): “The roster on the GOP side is much longer. A pair of term-limited long-time rivals, State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) and State Sen. Randy Gardner (R-Bowling Green), are almost certainly in the race. The Columbus Dispatch blog The Daily Briefing reports that State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) and State Rep. Lynn Wachtmann (R-Napoleon) are on the verge of jumping in, and Wood County Commissioner Tim W. Brown (R) and former State Rep. Rex Damschroder (R-Fremont) are considering running as well. The Wall Street Journal also mentions State Rep. Mark Wagner (R-Ottawa Hills) and former State Rep. Jim Hoops (R) as possible candidates. The deceased Congressman’s widow, former State Senator Dr. Karen L. Gillmor (R), has indicated that she will not run, but Joe Hallett of the Dispatch seems to think that she may change her mind.

In this kind of accelerated race with a large field of candidates, name recognition is probably the factor most likely to determine the outcome. Wierauch would appear to be in a good position due to her two recent campaigns. However, Bob Latta shares in his father’s name recognition and was previously a state senator and Wood County Commissioner. Lynn Wachtmann and Steve Buehrer have each served as State Senator in a district that accounts for about 40% of the 5th Congressional District. And, of course, as widow of the former Congressman Karen Gillmor has as much name recognition as anyone.”

So it seems like several Republicans may be running in the primary here, which may cause an intra-party battle.  Even if just one candidate emerges and there’s no fight, not all of the Republicans are universally beloved.  Even Latta in his last election in 2006 won in his House District (which corresponds almost exactly to Wood Co. and approximately 19% of OH-5 population) with only 56.9% of the vote, despite having represented the area for years. 

On the Democratic side, according to the Ohio Daily Blog, “Two-time challenger Robin Wierauch (D-Napoleon), the assistant director of the Center for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University, is definitely in the race. Weirauch got 43% of the vote against Gillmor in 2006 and 33% in 2004. She and her advisors have been hoping that there would be no primary on the Democratic side, but I have been told that there are at least two other Democrats are seriously considering a bid. One is Appellate Judge James R. Sherck (D-Fremont), who ran unsuccessfully against Gillmor’s predecessor Delbert Latta (R) four times from 1978 to 1984. The other is Mike Grandillo (D-Tiffin), a city councilman and vice president at Tiffin University.”

It looks like Wood Co. may be of central importance here as many of the candidates have ties to the Bowling Green area.  It should be noted that Wood was Weirauch’s strongest county in 2006; she received 49% of the vote there.  (If you compare the maps of the 2006 U.S. House and 2006 U.S. Senate elections, you will notice that Weirauch, despite getting 43.1% district-wide, seemed to under-perform in Seneca and Sandusky because it was Gillmor’s base area.  Whereas Ted Strickland did as good or better in Seneca and Sandusky than in Wood Co., Weirauch performed significantly worse in Seneca and Sandusky compared to Wood Co.  Looking at another map, you can see that Weirauch out-performed John Kerry in all but 2 counties – Seneca and Sandusky – because of those counties  ties to Gillmor.)

Weirauch wrote several editorials published in the Toledo Blade, criticizing Rep. Gillmor for supposedly living outside the district with only a token address within the district so that he could claim residency – this factor may have contributed to Weirauch doing as good as she did (in addition to the Democratic wave in Ohio in 2006), and would not be of help to us when running against a truly local Republican candidate – so there are pluses and minuses here. 

You can also get coverage of this race on the Buckeye Blog: http://www.buckeyest…

Two recent posts:
http://www.buckeyest…

  http://www.buckeyest…

Part of writing this diary was to discuss a potential Weirauch candidacy and to discuss the other potential Democratic candidates.  Although I think that Weirauch was impressive in 2006, I am not necessarily advocating for her candidacy – I just don’t know enough about the dynamics here.  I am not from Ohio, so would definitely appreciate local opinion on this subject.  I do think, however, that we may be able to make this district competitive.

5) Ohio is becoming more competitive overall and putting up a strong candidate here for the special may help us along the road, especially in November 2008:

As we all know, Ohio will be one of the keys to winning in 2008.  The state is clearly moving our way (no need for a long discussion of this; we can all see the recent trends).  We will probably be looking at several competitive House races next year ?
http://ohio2006elect…

here’s another recent story re. OH-15 and the state of the local Republican party http://ohio15th.blog…

The key to us winning a U.S. House race in OH-5 would be to really, really energize our base. A very energized base, even if relatively small numerically, can be a potent tool to increase our voting power.  Winning here, or even coming close, might be beneficial to us in the near and long term future, particularly in November of next year.  Things like voting lists, party contacts, and other means to expand and keep track of Democratic voters are always useful. But also simply an increased level of participation from Democrats in this relatively “red” part of an increasingly “blue” state like Ohio may prove to be of great importance to us as we move towards 2008.

So, this is how I see OH-5.  I don’t know if we will win here in the special election, but I certainly see signs that it may be possible.  Despite Republican crowing that their candidates would be shoo-ins, we should still take at least a long look at this district. 

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
CA-03 – R+7,
GA-01 – R+?,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NC-06 – R+17,
OH-05 – R+10,

But 1 goes back to uncontested:
IN-05 – R+20 (Ellis is not running).

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

336 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 103 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 103
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 27
Districts without any candidates – 70

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NC-05 – R+15,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
CA-45 – R+3,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
NC-10 – R+15,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Thats 20 states with a full slate, and 5 states with one race to fill! That is half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 14 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

The House Minority Leader John Boehner said in an interview with CNN on Wednesday that the blood shed in Iraq and the billions spent were a “small price.” A lot of bloggers pounded Boehner for this and rightfully so, though many missed an important angle: Boehner is the leader of his fellow 200 Republican members of the House of Representatives.

So on Thursday, I called on the Republican members of Nevada’s delegation (Jon Porter and Dean Heller) to answer one question: Do they think the death of Nevada’s fallen soldiers is a “small price to pay?”

I also asked members of the 50-State blog network to do the same. Thus far five other blogs have done so.

Left in Alabama has two posts up (here and here), Calitics, Minnesota Campaign Report and Blue Jersey are asking their Republican Congressmen as well, and Blue Mass Group wants an answer from the Republican candidate in Massachusetts 5th CD (which has a special election coming up) and also has a follow up.

We already have John McCain on record saying “he ought to retract it.” But McCain’s a Senator.

Where are the 200 men and women who elected John Boehner as their leader? Do they agree that the 3,780 American lives lost in Iraq are a small price?

If you haven’t already pressured your local representative on your blog, please join us and do so now. Also, bring this to the attention of your local media. Write an old fashioned letter to the editor. CNN has picked up the blogospehere’s reaction, so should your local media. Every Republican member of the House should have to answer if they agree with their leader.

Cross posted from My Silver State.

What a blockbuster week for Senate recruitment: former Governors Warner and Shaheen announcing their bids back-to-back!

Gaze into your crystal balls and tell me what the next bombshells will be.

Senate Republicans have not been doing well for a while now. But the GOP’s disarray is now extending to the House! The series of Republicans congressmen (Pryce, Hastert, LaHood, Peckering, …) declaring their intention to retire in August started the wave of bad news, but this past week shows the GOP’s House problems go much deeper than these open seats.

Read full analysis here,  on Campaign Diaries.

First, there is the speculation about more Republicans retiring. Most of it comes from VA-11, where Rep. Davis is mulling a run for Senate, and CA-4, where Rep. Doolittle is being investigated for his links to lobbyist Abramoff. In Virginia, Republicans will have a very hard time holding the seat in Democratic-trending Northern Virginia if Davis goes for the Senate seat — but it looks very likely Davis will seek to upgrade. And in California, Republicans are praying for Doolittle to resign, but he declared a few days ago that he will be in it to the end — sending chills down Republicans’ spine (Doolittle would handily lose this very red district if he remained the GOP nominee).

And could there now be a new open seat, one that would be even more terrifying for Republicans? Could the last Republican-held seat of New England finally open up, and then surely send a Democrat to Capitol Hill? It looks like that might be the case. Rep. Chris Shays, who edged out Diane Farrell in 2004 and in 2006 by extremely close margins, is now saying he will bow out if Republican leaders do not support his attempt to become top Republican on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Furthermore, he said, if he is promised the spot and then denied after the election, he will immediately resign. Shays added,
“I’m 61 years old. I’ve been in Congress 20 years. If I have to fight to become chairman of a committee, given the job I’ve done, I need to move on.”

There is no doubt that an open seat would make the seat as sure a Democratic pick-up as an open seat can ever be.  But even if he runs he will be one of the top Democratic targets. But Shays is facing a very tough re-election race once again in 2008 against already very well-funded and highly-touted Democrat Jim Himes. Shays was always known as a maverick moderate Republican, but he has become an increasingly loyal GOP house member in recent years by supporting the war effort (remember his seemingly weekly trips to Iraq in 2006?). The Hartford Courant writes:

Four years ago, things were different: Shays was winning elections easily, and he knew he was being punished by House Republican leaders because he led the fight for campaign finance reform. Times now are different. Shays has been a fairly loyal Republican, particularly on the Iraq war, and has been a loyal member of the committee, where he chaired its national security subcommittee before Democrats won control of the House last year.

Then come Republican recruitement failures. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes of the dire state of Georgia Republicans, who are failing to come up with serious challengers to two of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents: Jim Marshall (8th) and John Barrow (12th). Both Democrats barely survived in 2006 (by one-two points each), but Republicans are not setting themselves up for a similar opportunity in 2008, especially against John Barrow. And today, Republican Mike Carey withdrew his candidacy in Ohio’s 18th district, one of the most Republicans in Ohio that is today represented by Democrat Zach Space. OH-18 is supposed to be one of the GOP’s 2-3 top pick-up opportunities, but that still requires them to field a strong candidate.

Add to all of this the mounting controversy over Republican House leader Boehner’s assessment that soldiers’ lives and the country’s money is a “small price” to pay for what we are achieving in Iraq. McCain even joined in the fray today, condemning Boehner’s remarks. And the Democrats are pouncing: Kerry – who wrote a piece about this for the Huffington Post, probably enjoying his revenge after the bogus scandal around his botched joke in the fall of 2006 – and Dean denounced Boehner in strong terms.

The picture is certainly not as perfect for Democrats in the House as it is in the Senate, but things are going their way. Check my blog this week-end for ratings of this cycle’s House races.

Read more at www.campaigndiaries.com

Ohio Governor Ted Strickland has set the primary and special election dates to fill the vacancy of the late Republican Rep. Paul Gillmor.  The primary will be held on November 6th, and the special election on December 11th.

Ohio’s 5th is sharply Republican turf, with a PVI of R+10.  To put that into perspective, only six Democrats in the House represent districts with a redder hue.  State Rep. Bob Latta, a Republican, has thrown his hat into the ring, but he may face primary competition.  For the Democrats, 2004 and 2006 nominee Robin Weirauch may try again.  Weirauch, a Bowling Green State University employee, scored 33% of the vote on her first attempt and 43% last year in a tough statewide environment for Ohio Republicans.  I’ve also heard that Judge James Sherck, a Democrat who contested this seat four times from 1978 to 1984 (and only came close once, in ’82), and Tiffin city councillor Mike Grandillo as possible entrants.

Race Tracker: OH-05

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

[First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Chris Shays is miffed at the House GOP Leadership for somehow forgetting to reward the lone New England House Republican left standing:

And now [Rep. Shays is] threatening to not run again – he’s already a top Democratic target – if the House GOP leadership doesn’t make him the head Republican on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. If they do promise him the top spot but then renege in 2009, he says he’ll resign.

“I’m 61 years old. I’ve been in Congress 20 years,” Shays told the Hartford Courant. “If I have to fight to become chairman of a committee, given the job I’ve done, I need to move on.”

While I’m not at all surprised that the far-right-wing conservative GOP Leadership in both the House and Senate are not so quick to reward their less far-right-wing membership, I am shocked that more so-called “moderates” aren’t more vocal in demanding leadership roles, especially members in blue states whose seats would likely be an easy pick-up for Democrats if not for the current incumbents, like Shays.  Eh.  Oh well.

Race Tracker: CT-04

Man, Chuck Schumer has got to be doing back-flips today.  First Mark Warner, and now Jeanne Shaheen:

Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will be a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, the New Hampshire Union Leader has learned. The Democratic former three-term chief executive is expected to issue a statement today addressing her political plans. While it’s unclear exactly how the statement will be phrased, sources say Shaheen has decided to seek the seat held by Republican John E. Sununu, who defeated her in a bitter 2002 contest.

Shaheen, 60, will resign as director of the Harvard University Institute of Politics, a post she has held since April 2005.

It remains to be seen whether Katrina Swett or Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand will drop out of the primary.  Med school professor Jay Buckey will stay in no matter what.

UPDATE: Schumer’s statement, via e-mail:

“Jeanne Shaheen will be a great candidate and a great Senator.  We are excited that someone who represents the best of New Hampshire and American values is our candidate for the Senate.  With Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner announcing their candidacies in the last two days, our efforts to increase our majority in the Senate got a tremendous shot in the arm.”

Race Tracker: NH-Sen