Month: September 2007

The slow trickle of open seats left by House Republicans is beginning to become a drum beat.  Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL), who has been dogged by inquiries regarding his suspect land deals in Nicaragua in recent weeks, is going to bail out on Congress after his current term expires, according to Roll Call.

Weller’s district is competitive terrain that Bush won by a 53%-46% margin in 2004, but only by two points against Al Gore.  Earlier today, Trent wrote that Emily’s List is heavily recruiting state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to run for the seat.  An open seat here would undoubtedly launch this Illinois district into the top tier of 2008’s House races–meaning another headache for the GOP.

(H/T: TPM EC)

Race Tracker: IL-11

UPDATE (David): Weller made it official on Friday.

Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels has had a bit of a bumpy first term.  Controversy surrounding his initiative to privatize Indiana’s toll road, his efforts to push the state into following daylight savings time, and his clashes with the state legislature over tax increases wore down his approval rating dramatically.  In fact, Daniels’ disapproval ratings were higher than his approval ratings for all but one of SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking polls during 2006. 

Research 2000 has released the first poll of Daniels’ re-election race, and of the Democratic primary between state Senator Richard Young, businessman Jim Schellinger, and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson.  The results are not pretty for Mitch.

First, the Governor’s approvals:

Q: How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Excellent/Good: 45
Fair/Poor: 47
Not Sure: 8

MoE: ±3.5%

Next, the straight-up re-election numbers:

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote to reelect Mitch Daniels, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Daniels?

Re-Elect: 39
Would Consider Another Candidate: 21
Would Not Re-Elect: 37

Interestingly, 14% of Republicans polled would consider voting for another candidate, and 12% would vote for someone else.  In a general election match-up poll against Jill Long Thompson, Daniels isn’t exactly sitting in a position of strength:

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38
Undecided: 16

That’s a surprisingly strong showing by Thompson, who served in the House from 1988 to 1994, and narrowly lost a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in Indiana’s 2nd District in 2002.  The poll also shows her in a strong position to win the Democratic primary:

Jill Long Thompson: 41
Richard Young: 16
Jim Schellinger: 10

Daniels still has over a year to turn this ship around, but he’s showing a great deal of weakness this far out.  Perhaps Indiana voters are realizing that Bush’s man is not theirs.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

Republican Rep. Peter King, apparently channeling the same demons that possess Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA), unleashed some harsh words towards the American Muslim community in a recent interview:

Unfortunately, we have too many mosques in this country. There are too many people who are sympathetic to radical Islam. We should be looking at them more carefully. We should be finding out how we can infiltrate. […]

I think there’s been a lack of full cooperation from too many people in the Muslim community. And it’s a real threat here in this country.

You can watch the interview yourself over at YouTube.  As ThinkProgress notes, this is hardly the first time that King has had harsh words for Muslim-Americans.

Republicans benefited from a 9/11 bounce in King’s district in 2004, when Bush carried the Long Island-based 3rd District by 5 points after losing by 8 to Gore four years earlier.  His normally lofty re-election margins took a hit last year, when he dispatched late-starting challenger Dave Mejias by a 56%-44% margin.  If, however, you believe that the Democratic presidential nominee will rebound to Gore’s 2000 margin (or better), then targeting King for defeat could be worthwhile.

This diary is about Nevada’s 3rd CD.

It’s a rhetorical question of course! At least for me.

Nevertheless, it is still an interesting one. On the one side we have one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, on the other a Democratic elite unwilling to jump into the race – whatever reasons they may have.

From the Las Vegas Sun:

Invitations went out to the big dance off, and it had to be tempting. Challenge a Republican congressman who has been unwavering in his support of an unpopular war. Get millions of dollars in assistance from national Democrats. And do all of this when voters are leaning toward Democrats.

The cool kids, though, decided not to show. So a political neophyte will be the candidate.

Robert Daskas, a chief deputy district attorney, filed papers last week announcing his intention to run against Rep. Jon Porter, a three-term incumbent. (The other announced Democratic candidate is Andrew Martin, who will have a tough time beating Daskas, the party’s preferred candidate, for the nomination .)

Daskas has the support of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Rep. Shelley Berkley of Nevada . But that doesn’t mean he was the first choice. At least four other s, three of them veteran elected officials, passed up a chance to run.

“There’s no question Daskas is a fourth-choice candidate for national Democrats,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report. “That said, Republicans can’t take him lightly.”

If you think this only applies to Nevada’s 3rd congressional district you’d be wrong. The same is true for Oregon’s U.S. Senate race. There, Bush rubber stamp Gordon Smith is seen just as vulnerable as Porter is in Nevada. And yet, one prominent Democrat after the other said thanks but no thanks. In the end, the Democratic elite in Oregon settled on House Majority Leader Jeff Merkley. In Nevada, they settled on Clark County Chief Deputy District Attorney Robert Daskas.

The number of elected Democrats in Oregon is much higher than in Nevada so the following assertion by the Sun doesn’t quite ring true:

In other states, political parties spend years nurturing potential candidates for higher office. But Nevada Democrats have not always focused on grooming candidates by helping up-and-comers get elected to school boards and city councils to gain experience.

It’s more a resistance of leading Democrats to take a chance and jump into a race with an uncertain outcome. One wonders why. However, this reluctance may be one reason why there is still no talk of a challenger for our Republican freshman in Congress, Dean Heller. What’s up with that anyway?

Cross posted from My Silver State.

the respected capitol fax blog reports “Congressman Jerry Weller is not yet circulating his nominating petitions.”  for those who don’t know, candidates have to collect signatures to get their names on the ballot in illinois, collecting an equivalent of .5% of the number of partisan voters in the last primary election.  the daily southtown, a local paper of sorts for the northern end of the 11th congressional district in illinois, also notes:

Rumors are circulating that Weller may decide against another term, particularly in light of the bad press he is receiving over his Guatemalan financial interests. Phone calls, I’m told, have been made to his top donors indicating he may be preparing to “hang it up.” His family, after all, lives in Guatemala. That’s a long commute.

not to mention weller’s recent naming as one of the “22 most corrupt” in congress, in an annual report by citizens for responsibility and ethics in washington.

weller feeds the “republicans are corrupt” meme, and his getting subpoenaed recently in the duke cunningham investigation/brent wilkes trial reinforces that.

the good news is that emily’s list and local democrats have been talking to illinois senate majority leader debbie halvorson about running for this seat, regardless of what weller decides.  the daily southtown reports that “Halvorson is meeting with Emily’s List recruiters this month to discuss a possible congressional bid.”  recent comments might indicate a desire to get out of the current environment in springfield.  but, as the southtown notes, she could run without having to give up her senate seat — a choice preferred by most incumbents.

halvorson would be an incredibly strong challenger — and would probably clear the democratic field if she gets in the race.  her entry, especially with the support of national groups like emily’s list, would instantly pull this seat into the competitive column (doesn’t hurt that weller has many ethical problems).  and if it became an open seat, halvorson’s candidacy could put this into the leans democrat column fairly quickly.

After being nailed by the Chicago Tribune over his suspicious Latin American investments, it looks like Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL) might not be running for re-election. According to the Daily Southtown, Weller is certainly sending those signals:

Rumors are circulating that Weller may decide against another term, particularly in light of the bad press he is receiving over his Guatemalan financial interests. Phone calls, I'm told, have been made to his top donors indicating he may be preparing to “hang it up.” His family, after all, lives in Guatemala. That's a long commute.

[…] 

He has not returned phone calls to the media, no matter the topic, for weeks. 

In addtion, The Capitol Fax reports that Weller hasn't started circulating the nominating petitions required for his name to appear on the ballot. 

So who'll step in to fill the void if Weller opts out? Although he's also taken up the habit of not returning phone calls from the media, it's rumored that Joliet bank president Jim Roolf is considering a run for the Republicans. And Emily's List is heavily recruiting state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D-Crete) to enter the race. It's pretty certain that this seat, with a PVI of R+1.1, will be competitive no matter what Weller decides.

(h/t to Faithfully Liberal) 

According to the Lincoln Journal Star and the Omaha World-Herald, Agriculture Secretary and former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns will announce his entry into the Republican primary next week for the seat currently held by the departing Senator Chuck Hagel:

It looks like Republican Mike Johanns is ready to come home and run for the U.S. Senate.

Johanns, who is U.S. agriculture secretary, spent part of last week shopping for a home in Omaha, said Michael Kennedy, a Johanns supporter and GOP activist.

The former governor will have a “major announcement” next week, Kennedy said.

“I’m fairly confident Mike’s announcement will be positive for the citizens of Nebraska,” Kennedy said Tuesday night.

Johanns, a popular former Governor, would be the heavyweight in the GOP primary against state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Representative and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Pat Flynn.  He would also prove to be a formidable opponent to former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey, who is expected to announce a decision of his own in the very near future.

Kerrey had to have been expecting a tough candidate like Johanns to run against, so I’m not sure if this development will affect his deliberations.  In any event, it looks like the Nebraska Senate race could prove to be a clash of two statewide titans.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

Popular former Governor Mike Johanns (R) has announced that he’s resigning from his position as Agriculture Secretary and returning to Nebraska to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel.

http://www.journalst…

“Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns has decided to resign from President Bush’s cabinet to return to Nebraska and enter the 2008 Senate race.

Johanns, the former two-term Republican governor, began placing phone calls to a number of friends and supporters in the state Tuesday night to inform them of his decision.

A formal announcement is expected in Nebraska next week after Johanns has submitted his resignation to the White House, according to a source close to Johanns.”

Johanns joins two other prominent GOPers in the state, former Omaha Mayor and former four-term Congressman Hal Daub, who got in the race last week, and Attorney General Jon Bruning, who has been actively campaigning since the spring. Tony Raimondo and Pat Flynn have also announced their intentions to run.

Johanns is widely seen as the strongest possible GOP nominee (some even count him as stronger than Chuck Hagel), and the best person to keep the seat in the Republican Party should former Senator and Governor Bob Kerrey decide to run. Johanns was the mayor of Lincoln, NE when he was elected Governor in 1998, then re-elected in 2002 with 69% of the vote.

In preperation for Johanns expected entry, Jon Bruning released a poll last week that showed himself only nine points down against Johanns in the GOP primary. The same poll, conducted on behalf of Jon Bruning, gave Johanns a fav/unfav of 60%-6%. Rumors in Washington though have Mike Johanns’ internal polling blowing Bruning out of the water.

Strategically speaking, Johanns position also puts prospective candidate Bob Kerrey in a bind. Kerrey has yet to announce his intentions, though he has told the board of his school that his retirement to run for Senate is a possibility. But given Mike Johanns’ popularity and strength in the red state, especially during a Presidential election year, Bob Kerrey may think twice before leaving his job in New York to run–and potentially lose–a Senate race in his home state.

Assuming Johanns wins the GOP nomination, which he is the odds-on favorite to do at this point, in a match-up against Bob Kerrey most pundits will rate the seat as Leans GOP or a toss-up. If Bob Kerrey decides not to run, the nominee would likely be either Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or NE-03 nominee Scott Kleeb; against either of these candidates, Mike Johanns would be the strong favorite to win.

The Senate 2008 Guru shuffles on down to the People’s House and riffs off of Ben to provide this list of Republicans sitting in districts of R+5 or better who don’t have any announced or rumored challengers:

                             

District	PVI	Incumbent
NY-23	R+0.2	John McHugh
MN-03	R+0.5	Jim Ramstad
OH-12	R+0.7	Patrick Tiberi
MI-11	R+1.2	Thaddeus McCotter
MI-08	R+1.9	Mike Rogers
MI-06	R+2.3	Fred Upton
FL-07	R+3	John Mica
MI-04	R+3	Dave Camp
OH-03	R+3	Michael Turner
FL-18	R+4	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
FL-25	R+4	Mario Diaz-Balart
MI-10	R+4	Candice Miller
FL-05	R+5	Ginny Browne-Waite
VA-05	R+5	Virgil Goode

Obviously, the state of play in House races is always a moving target, as the Ramstad situation shows. And challengers often don’t announce until the year of the actual election. What’s more, this list doesn’t take into account the quality of the opposition in all the races which do have challengers (or potential challengers).

That said, there are still some interesting opportunities on the list. I hope someone steps forward to take on John McHugh, and not just because he sits in the most Dem-leaning district of this bunch, but also because NY is by far the bluest state here. I think next year, we could possibly return to Gore – or even Clinton – levels statewide in New York. Michigan also looks enticing, with five opportunities under R+5.

So, have you heard any rumors at all about any of these seats? Any speculation or recruitment ideas? Let’s hear it.

With the bombshell news of Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement, it’s about time to post another edition of our ongoing House Open Seat Watch series. Much has changed since our last installment in this series back in August. The list of House retirements has swelled with the addition of Reps. Renzi, Pickering, Pryce, Hastert, and, of course, Ramstad. We’ve also had to scratch one retirement, as Illinois Democrat Luís Gutiérrez has withdrawn his resignation.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Will resign
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring

Ramstad’s retirement is a serious blow to House Republicans, who now have to deal with several open seats in politically competitive terrain that could easily fall to strong Democratic challengers. Personally popular, Ramstad enjoyed robust margins of victory in a district that Bush won by only four and three point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Add to that the likely vacancy left behind by GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia as he attempts to block former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner’s ascendancy to the Senate, and Republicans are facing a burgeoning amount of marginal seats without incumbents in 2008. Retaking the House is looking harder and harder with every retirement for the NRCC.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	72	Speculation/Rumors
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CT-04	Shays	R	D+5.4	63	Threatening retirement
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IL-16	Manzullo	R	R+4.5	64	Speculation
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	56	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-01	Davis, JoAnn	R	R+8.9	58	Rumors/Health issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

Not many changes here: Chrissy Shays (R-CT) is in, and despite his vow to run again, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is staying on (you never know when an indictment will drop). It’s well worth mentioning, however, that several of the most recent retirements (Pryce, Pickering, and Ramstad) were genuine surprises and were not found on the previous list of potential retirements. We will very likely be surprised again in the coming days, weeks, and months.

Any other retirement rumors floating through your tubes?