Month: November 2007

Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell: 

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.  “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.”  Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win.  Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit.  We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him. 

Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.

Apparently frustrated with attempts by local activists to Draft Tom Udall into the US Senate race, Democrat Marty Chávez is back on the attack:

“This will not be a sweet primary. It just won’t,” Chavez said during a telephone interview. “The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won’t situate him well for the general election.”

In other words, Chávez claims Udall is too liberal for New Mexico. Nice to see the GOP talking points being broken out so early in the campaign, even before Chávez's potential primary opponent has made a decision about the race.

However, Chávez's attempts to paint Udall as a politician “so far to the left” clash with what he had to say about the congressman in a conversation with local bloggers:

“If you look issue by issue I doubt you’ll find much difference … You will find that we will vote together almost all the time.”

Perhaps it's a good thing Udall is holding off on announcing his intentions; it'll give Chávez the time he needs to decide whether Udall is a “great congressman” with an admirable voting record or an out-of-touch liberal.

(H/T: TPM EC)

(From the diaries. What’s your take? – promoted by James L.)

As we all watched in amazement last year, the Blue Wave in 2006 was so strong Republicans almost lost House districts in Wyoming and Idaho – two of the most conservative districts in the country (only 10-20 districts gave Bush a higher percentage of the vote in 2000 or 2004).  Not one Democratic seat was lost.

It couldn’t get better than that, could it?

Could it?

As the latest Democracy Corps memo puts it, “If Americans have ever been angrier with the state of the country, we have not witnessed it…”  And that anger is directed mostly at Republicans. 

Now, the numbers – first up, the Master Indicator – the Generic Ballot question.  The graph show the net Democratic advantage:

Click to enlarge.

Join me on the flip for a fourteen ways to look at the 2008 House races – and, in some cases, the mood of the country in general. 

Cross-posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Note: If I haven’t linked to polling data directly, you can find it at pollingreport.com. Unless I forgot to put in the link. 

The Vote

1.  Generic Ballot (+)  (The plus sign means an improvement from 2006 for Democrats)
The generic ballot question really has done a great job predicting the actual nationwide vote in congressional elections recently, when the results of all polls are averaged together.  The actual Democratic advantage has ended up about 3-4 points less than what the polls say in the final week for the past four elections in the Bush era.  So far, despite increasing unhappiness with Congress, Democrats continue to have a stunning advantage on the generic ballot. 

2. Battleground Districts (+)
Democracy Corps has once again been busy polling the House races in key areas of the country.  The Mountain West favors Democrats slightly more than they did in 2006, but the amazing numbers are in the 35 most vulnerable Republican districts.  Their poll numbers are lousy.  No wonder so many have decided to retire (more on that later).  The 35 most vulnerable House Democrats, on the other hand, are not so vulnerable at all, polling well ahead of generic Republicans (55 to 37). 

Party preference in key districts. Click to enlarge.

The Parties and Approval

3.  Bush Approval (+)
Bush’s approval continues on a downward trajectory, overall, and he is making sure Republicans go down with him.  In 2006 Bush’s approval was related to Republicans’ performance in House elections; there’s no guarantee for 2008, but lower approval ratings for Bush are worse for Republicans than higher approval ratings.  Note the map below for districts is from July 2007, when Bush’s approval was a few points lower than today.  (An archive of old approval ratings maps is now available on dKosopedia.)

Bush’s approval by state (10/07) and district (7/07).  Click to enlarge.

4.  Party Approval (-)
The Republican brand is trashed.  Democrats have a net approval that is less than November 2006, but still positive, and not unusually low.  Republicans remain way, way in the negative.

Net favorability of Democrats and Republicans.  Click to enlarge.

5.  Congressional Approval (=)
Nobody likes Congress, we’ve heard, but people like Congressional Republicans a fair amount less than they like Congressional Democrats.  According to ABC/Washington Post polls, people are most likely to blame Bush and the Republicans for blocking Democrats from doing what the people elected them to do.  The difference between the parties’ approval is still about the same as last year.

Approval of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and who is to blame for Congress not getting things done.  Click to enlarge.

6.  Party ID (+)
Republicans and Democrats are at about the same levels as 2006 according to Rasmussen, but when you include Independents who lean towards Democrats, Pew shows the leftward shift continuing into this year.

Two measures of partisan identification.  Click to enlarge.

The Issues

7.  Party Trust (+)
The public continues to swing to the Democratic side of issues, part of a longer-term trend.  Republicans used to be the party of Fiscal Discipline, but last July, an NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats have advantages on Reducing the Deficit (+25), Controlling Government Spending (+16), and Taxes (+9).  Well, so they’re left with God, Guns, and Gays, right?  No…. Rasmussen asked about Abortion (+7 average this year), and Newsweek about Guns (+2) and Same-Sex Marriage (+8).  And White Evangelical Christians are abandoning the party in droves – some to become Democrats, but mainly to become Independents or apolitical.  Then what about Terra, Terra, Terra, 9/11?  Still no…at best, Republicans come out even on questions about National Security and the so-called War on Terror.  On the issues voters claim are most important to them, Democrats have increased their advantage since 2006, and two issues that are among the most favorable for Democrats (health care and the economy) have gained prominence.  There is one sour note in this symphony: a decrease in the Democratic advantage when it comes to corruption and ethics in government.

Democratic advantage on key issues and importance of key issues in recent elections.  Click to enlarge.

8.  Iraq (+)
The public continues to think the war in Iraq simply isn’t worth it, to a greater extent than a year ago, although opinion was more pessimistic mid-year.  More and more people also think the number of troops should be decreased.

Opinion on whether Iraq is worth it and troop withdrawal.  Click to enlarge.

9.  The Economy (+)
As we saw above, the public trusts Democrats much more on the economy, and the economy is coming to the fore in terms of important issues this election season.  People think things aren’t very good and they’re getting worse, despite all the rosy numbers the Bush administration keeps putting out.  And when the Republicans try to talk up the economy, it really pisses people off (see Page 7.)  One reason, of course, is because Real People actually buy things like milk and gas, and the prices keep going up while wages are not.  Over Bush’s presidency, gas has been increasing at 13% per year (log plot here), while wages have been increasing at about 3% per year.  Up until about 2004, the public perception of the economy’s future seemed to be tied strongly to the stock market; after that, it appears gas prices are key.  For more and a much better analysis, see How to hide a recession.

Public perception on the current state of the economy, direction of the economy, milk and gas prices, and how gas and the Dow influence public opinion.  Click to enlarge.

10.  Health Care (+)
Health care availability and cost are both increasing problems, and surely related to perceptions of the economy.  The percentage of Americans without insurance has been rising steadily through the Bush presidency, and the number now stands at 47 million. Those who have health care plans through work have seen premiums almost double, while benefits dwindle and copays multiply.

Percent of Americans who are uninsured and premium prices.  Click to enlarge.

The Campaigning

11.  Fundraising (+)
Any way you slice it, Congressional Democrats and Democratic challengers are beating the pants of the Republicans in the money race.  The bad news is where a lot of this money is coming from.  The new members of Congress are raising a ton of cash, and Republican challengers are not.  Data for the first six months of 2007 and previous years are available from the FEC.

Total and median funds for incumbents, median funds for challengers, and number of challengers.  Click to enlarge.

12.  Recruitment (+)
As BENAWU has tirelessly documented, there are more districts with Democrats running now than at this time in 2005.  Part of this, of course, is that we started out with a few extra seats in the House filled with incumbents!  Nonetheless, Democrats are having a great recruitment season.

Number of districts with Democrats running, and district status as of mid-October.  Click to enlarge.

13.  Retirement (+)
Democrats are keeping their behinds tightly plastered to their seats and Republicans are fleeing for the exits, as covered by many of Steve Singiser’s diaries.  The Cook Political Report has tracked retirements over the past few cycles, and based on the numbers, it looks like we can expect another wave of Republican retirements in the new year, possible making it up to 30.  Democrats, on the other hand, have far fewer retirements or even potential retirements compared to the 2004 or 2006 cycles. 

Republican and Democratic retirements, and Republican and Democratic potential retirements.  Click to enlarge.

14.  Coattails (-)
In 2006, we had no national Democrat for Republicans to run against in House races.  In 2008, we will, and whoever it is will have high negatives after the right-wing slime machine is done with them. 

The good news is, right now, 74% believe that Clinton will be the nominee, and her most recent NBC/WSJ ‘very negative’ ratings were 26%.  No, really – this is good news, because it means the current excellent Generic Ballot numbers (which recently have had a good relationship with the actual vote) must therefore already have substantial negative coattails built in.  We still should assume the effect will increase.  Below are Kerry’s numbers from 2004 and the generic ballot numbers (note that approval of Democrats in general was also falling at the end of the campaign).

Kerry’s disapproval and the generic ballot, 2004.  Click to enlarge.

Summary:

Out of 14 factors, there are only two that are worse now compared to the 2006 cycle.  The generic ballot favors Democrats to an amazing extent.  This will be affected by local campaigns, of course, and here the Democrats are also excelling, with outstanding fundraising, recruiting, and retention.  Broader factors such as the economy and presidential approval ratings are also trending towards Democrats.  The public trusts Democrats more, and approves of Democrats more, even as they are unsatisfied with what Congress is doing.  As of now, Democrats are in an excellent position for the 2008 elections, despite the shortcomings of Democratic leaders over the past year. 

The announcements for people running for New Mexico’s Second Congressional District open seat are starting to come in at a fast and furious pace.  The current Representative, Steve Pearce (R), is leaving the seat to take a crack at the now-open Senate seat.

Today, State Rep. Jose Campos and restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley announced their intentions to run.  Jose Campos has political experience as a State Rep for four years and mayor of Santa Rosa for nearly a decade.  Tinsley’s political experience comes in the form of running against Pearce in 2002, when he lost to Pearce while running for the open seat.

More under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Campos joins fellow Democrats Bill McCamley and Al Kissling in the race.  Another Democrat in the race is Frank McKinnon, a former schoolteacher.

They are expected to be joined soon by State Rep Joseph Cervantes and (officially) by Harry Teague.  Teague already told Democratic officials of his intention to run, but will make it public within the coming week.  And Cervantes, who has been rumored in every cycle in the recent past to run for the seat, is widely expected to also throw his hat in the ring.

On the Republican side of things, Tinsley is the first announced candidate, but will not be the last to opt for a shot at the open seat. 

Sid Goddard, chairman for the Republican Party of Doña Ana County, said he’s aware of about eight to 12 Republicans who are considering joining the race, but, other than Tinsley, none has stepped forward definitively yet. Potential candidates are likely gauging support, their competition and their odds, he said.

What makes this so interesting is not every candidate will get their names on the ballot.  In fact, at most, four candidates from each party will get their names on the ballot, thanks to a new law enacted by the state legislature this past session.  To get his/her name on a ballot, each candidate must garner the support of 20 percent of convention goers.  Previously, candidates who did not reach the 20 percent threshold were able to gather signatures on a petition to get their name on the ballot. 

No longer. And with three Democratic candidates already in the race, two more ready to jump in and possibly double-digit numbers of Republicans… things could get interesting before the March pre-Primary convention.

Actually, things seem to be getting interesting already when it comes to the Second Congressional District.

In a recent Roll Call article on the DCCC’s strategy to turn the GOP’s black-hearted support of President Bush’s S-CHIP veto into some serious November Pain for rank-and-file House Republicans, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen let slip some rough polling numbers for S-CHIP hater Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI).  Knollenberg has an A-list challenger in former state Sen. Gary Peters.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the DCCC (likely voters, 10/31-11/02):

Gary Peters (D): 35
Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.8%)

While the exact trendlines are not available, Knollenberg’s 7-point lead is down from a 12-point lead in April.  He’s also well under the magic 50%
mark, well before the campaign has even been engaged.  Not good news for Team Red.

And in a sign of S-CHIP’s salience, Knollenberg is very vulnerable on the issue:

Knollenberg’s 7-point lead turned into a 7-point deficit after respondents were read both a push question characterizing his position on SCHIP, and the Democratic and Republican arguments for and against the program.

This one’s going to be fun.

Let’s tally up all the turnovers in statewide and legislative races last night.  Democratic pick-ups are in blue; Republican pick-ups in red.  Italics denote a close race that appears to be going to a recount.

Kentucky: Governor/Lt. Governor (59%)

Maine: ME-HD93 (53.8%)
New House margin: 90D–59R–2I

Mississippi: Secretary of State (59%; open), Insurance Commissioner (57%; open), MS-SD02 (61%), MS-SD04 (57%), MS-SD18 (52%), MS-SD29 (57%), MS-SD43 (52%), MS-HD01 (54%), MS-HD15 (58%), MS-HD43 (47%), MS-HD71 (53%), MS-HD99 (52%), MS-HD111 (50%)
New Senate margin: 28D–24R (Chamber flip)
New House margin: 75D–47R

New Jersey: NJ-SD01 (56%), NJ-SD02 (57%), NJ-SD12 (54%), NJ-AD02, NJ-AD08, NJ-AD12, NJ-AD14.
New Senate margin: 23D–17R.
New Assembly margin: 48D–32R.

Virginia: VA-SD01 (51%), VA-SD06 (54.4%), VA-SD34 (55.1%), VA-SD39 (51%), VA-HD21 (57.5%), VA-HD34 (51.5%), VA-HD51 (51.8%), VA-HD68 (54%; Independent-to-Republican turnover), VA-HD83 (50.6%)
New Senate margin: 21D–19R (Chamber flip)
Hew House margin: 54R–44D–2I

If we missed something, please let us know in the comments.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

A star is born in OH! IO!

Canton, Ohio Mayoral Race
Challenger Jamey Healy (D): 53.4%
Incumbent Janet Creighton (R): 46.6%

Canton is the largest city in the 16th Congressional District — a place I called home during my first campaign and returned when given the opportunity by Senator Sherrod Brown a year later. 

It’s an inexpensive cocktail made from 2 parts economic depression and job loss, 1 part quaint strip-mall suburbia, and 1 part big city…ish.

And last night, it was home to a proxy war that will hopefully foretell the outcome of OH-16 and the Presidential election in 2008.

Canton is the largest city in what is widely considered THE swing district in Ohio: Stark County. Stark County, of course, is the largest county in what is considered the pivotal race in Ohio’s Congressional landscape this year: OH-16.

You hear a lot of “firewall” states for Presidential campaigns.  Ie. if candidate “x” loses such and such states, their “firewall” is Florida (for example) where he/she can regain lost momentum and come back to carry the day.  In this instance, Canton was the firewall city for the Ohio GOP.  Until last night, it was the largest city under Republican control.

And this morning, there isn’t a single Republican elected official in the entire city.

For the final days and weeks, Republicans re-allocated their resources away from races like the longshot attempt to unseat Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman and started sending troops Northeast torwards Canton.

Emails went out, troops came in, money flew in all directions in what was the most expensive Mayoral race in the city’s history.  Ted Strickland, Chris Redfern and the resurgent Ohio Democratic Party responded in-kind with dollars, bodies and political heft.  And with a week to go, it was clear: Canton was the place to be.

At the end of the day, the Ohio Democratic Party train rolled on — decisively beating the Republicans and forcing them back to a fall-back position they only envisioned in their worst nightmares.

The Stark County Democratic party *was* an ossified pseudo-machine under the leadership of Johnnie Maier.  Maier is an opportunist, pure and simple.  The kind of man who would quickly place his own political ambitions directly ahead of any perceived threat to his own power or future ladders he might contemplate climbing.

And that includes Democratic candidates running for office in his own backyard.

Johnnie Maier is a checkers master trying to compete on a three dimensional chess board.  His inability to completely grasp his surroundings is rivaled only by the lead character in the movie Momento.

He alienates activists like it were his job.  He chased away Kerry coordinators, pissed off ACT, and actively worked against Reform Ohio Now. Quite the trifecta.

Johnnie Maier is no longer the leader of the Ohio Democratic Party in Stark County.  There is a new sheriff in town. It’s a new breed of Democrat that will deliver votes to John Boccieri and the Democratic nominee in OH-16.  People like Jamey and Deametrious St. John flexed their muscles and led the ticket to a clean sweep.

Finally, a star is born. I had long considered Jamey a top prospect to run either against Ralph Regula, or in the open seat in a post-Regula world.  He went another route, and that opened the door for someone like John Boccieri to walk through it. 

A victory here signals strength in OH-16 that hasn’t been seen for quite some time.  It signals a Democratic Party on the move and a Republican Party retreating to the reddest of red portions of the state.  And it was a test of wills in a battle that most viewed as a precursor of things to come statewide in 2008.

There is a lot to be encouraged about in this race.  We won the battle, and it was a nice little leap in the right direction towards winning the war.

RESULTS: KY | VA | MS| NJ | OH-05

Time for a new one.

1:45AM: One more update, and then I’m done.  (I swear.)  Mark Nikolas over at the Bluegrass Report hears some serious buzz that Kentucky state Auditor Crit Luallen is gearing up to take on Sen. Mitch McConnell next year.
1:27AM: Alright, one final update: Democrat David Poisson just won re-election to the Virginia House of Delegates by a 53%-47% margin.  Republican hopes of a pick-up here went unrealized.
1:16AM: Time for me to sign off for the night.  To sum up the situation, Democrats made some historic victories in Kentucky, capturing the Governor’s mansion with 59% of the vote and winning all statewide offices other than Secretary of State and Agriculture Commissioner by wide margins.  Democrats won control of the Virginia state Senate and made some gains in the House of Delegates.  In New Jersey, the parties more or less broke even, but Democrats made some exciting gains in the district of US Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R), where two potential ’08 foes won election to the state Senate (Jeff Van Drew and Jim Whelan).  In Mississippi, Democrats got whipped in the statewide races but held on to the Attorney General’s office by 20 points and recaptured the state Senate.  And in Ohio, it looks like Bob Latta is squeaking ahead of Club For Growth nutcase Steve Buehrer in the GOP special primary to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor, but just barely.

Feel free to keep the momentum going in the comments.

1:11AM: Well, what do you know.  Despite taking an early lead, Republican Bob Latta only leads Club For Growth nutcase Steve Buehrer by a 43%-41% margin in the OH-05 special primary, with 86% of precincts reporting.
1:08AM: Darn.  Democrat Janet Oleszek fell short by a mere 91 votes in her bid to defeat Republican incumbent Ken Cuccinelli in VA-SD37.  However, Democrats still picked up the chamber by a 21-19 margin.  And as several users have pointed out in the comments, it looks like Mississippi Democrats have re-captured their state Senate, as well!
1:00AM: The votes have just began to be counted, but incumbent Delegate David Poisson (D) is losing by a 44%-56% margin with 1 of 23 precincts reporting.  HD32 could be the one loss for Virginia Dems this year.
12:31AM: Here’s one Barbour that Democrats can beat — Democrat Lynn Posey is leading Charles Barbour (Haley’s nephew) by a 51%-46% margin for Public Service Commissioner (Central District) in Mississippi with 85% reporting.
12:24AM: This one looks like it could be another open seat pick-up for Virginia Dems: VA-HD34, where Margaret Vanderhye (D) leads by 450 votes with 18 of 19 precincts reporting.
12:18AM: Tally up another Democratic pick-up in Virginia: Paul Nichols (D) beat Faisal Gill (R) by a 52%-48% margin in VA-HD51.
12:08AM: In MS-SD43, Democrat Tommy Dickerson knocked off the Republican incumbent by a 52%-48% margin.
12:06AM: In MS-SD29, Democrat David Blount is leading the incumbent Republican by 53%-47% with 63% of precincts reporting.
12:02AM: Looks like Democrats picked up MS-SD02, with Democrat Bill Stone leading Republican incumbent Ralph Doxey by 58%-42% with 87% in, but they lost MS-SD18, with Democratic incumbent Gloria Williamson losing by a 48%-52% margin.
11:58PM: Democrats picked up at least one seat in the Mississippi state House: HD71.  I still have to go through the results to see if any other seats flipped control.
11:49PM: Blue Jersey says that NJ Republicans gained at least two Assembly seats tonight.  On the bright side, NJ Democrats enjoyed a pretty wide margin of control in the state Assembly (48-30) before tonight.
11:39PM: Not Larry Sabato has the current Virginia Senate and House of Delegates breakdown.  21D-18R and 1 undecided race in the Senate; 52R-43D-2I-3 undecided races in the House.  Before tonight, it was 23R-17D in the Senate, and 56R-41D-3I in the House.

RESULTS: KY | VA | MS| NJ | OH-05

11:35PM: Time for a new thread.  Let’s continue this adventure over here.

11:28PM: With 38 of 39 precincts reporting, Oleszek is down by 69 votes.

11:25PM: Oleszek is now down by 140 votes with 92% in.  Barker (D) still leads by 1000 votes with 85%, so Democrats will most likely win the state Senate tonight no matter what happens with Oleszek’s race.

11:14PM: Oleszek (D) is up by 54 votes in VA-SD37 with 84.6% in!

11:09PM: Oleszek (D) is down by FOUR votes in VA-SD37 with 82% in.  George Barker (D) is up by 1100 votes in VA-SD39 (75% in).  With a Barker win, Democrats will control the Virginia state Senate.

11:07PM: Blue Indiana has Indiana’s municipal elections results.  Bart Peterson, the Democratic mayor of Indianapolis (who declined to run against Gov. Mitch Daniels next year), lost his job tonight.

10:53PM: It’s tight, but thinks are looking up for George Barker (D) in VA-SD39.  He now leads by under 700 votes (51.36%-48.53%) with 64% in.  Oleszek (D) is closing in on Cuccinelli (R-inc), now only 127 behind with 74% in.  Hang on.  We need one of these seats to win the Virginia state Senate.

10:48PM: Latta is kicking ass in OH-05.  He leads Club For Growth stooge Steve Buehrer by 62.94% to 24.11% with 25% in.

10:32PM: It’s going down to the wire in Virginia, with Democrat George Barker leading by 400 votes (50.93%-48.95%) in SD39 with 56% in, and Janet Oleszek (D) trailing by under 270 votes (49.36%-50.42%) with 64% in.

10:30PM: It looks like state Sen. Ellen Karcher (D) has lost to Republican Jennifer Beck in New Jersey.  With Karcher’s loss, that still makes it a net gain of 1 seat for the NJ Senate Democrats so far, by my count.

10:27PM: Some results are starting to trickle into the OH-05 Republican special primary.  Latta is leading Buehrer by 45%-39.5% with 7.44% of precincts reporting.

10:26PM: I like Kentucky in this color.

10:19PM: It’s a wrap in Kentucky!  With 99.9% reporting, Steve Beshear has won by 58.7% to 41.3%.  What a sweet win it is.

10:16PM: Good news from New Jersey — Jeff Van Drew (D) and Jim Whelan (D) both beat incumbent Republican state Senators.

10:04PM: With 23% of precincts reporting, Democrat John Eaves is trailing Barbour by 46%-54%.  Seems a lot closer than anyone expected so far.

10:01PM: Nothing yet in OH-05.

9:48PM: John Miller has picked up VA-SD01 for the Democrats.  It looks like Ralph Northam has done the same for VA-SD06, and Chap Petersen will win VA-SD34.  One more pickup needed.

9:42PM: With 16% of precincts reporting, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is leading John Eaves (D) by 54%-46%.  The Clarion-Ledger is calling this race for Barbour.

9:30PM: As previously stated, the Democrats need to pick up four seats in order to win the Virginia Senate.  Let’s see how they’re doing so far:

SD01: Miller (D) leads Stall (R) by 51.30%-48.30% with 90% in.
SD06: Northam (D) leads Rerras (R-inc) by 53.98%-45.96% with 88% in.
SD22: Breiner (D) is lagging behind Smith (R) by 49.03%-50.85% with 98.6% in.  (This is a Republican open seat.)
SD27: Schultz (D) is behind by 45.33%-50.15% with 73% in. (Republican open seat)
SD28: Pollard (D) leads Stuart (R) by 50.48%-49.38% with 77% in. (R open seat)
SD34: Petersen (D) is eviscerating Devolites-Davis (R-inc) by 58.70%-41.12% with 44% in.
SD37: Oleszek (D) leads Cuccinelli (R-inc) 51.68%-47.98% with 10% in.
SD29: Barker (D) leads O’Brien (R-inc) 50.60%-49.22% with 22% in.

9:23PM: With 6% of precincts reporting, Gov. Haley Barbour is leading John Eaves (D) by 61%-39%.

9:15PM: Time for a fresh new thread.  In New Jersey, Jeff Van Drew (D) is leading state Sen. Nick Asselta (R-inc) by 56%-44% with 109 of 204 precincts reporting.

RESULTS: KY | VA | MS| NJ

9:19PM: This thread is getting too crowded, so we’re continuing all our race coverage over in this one.  Stay with us.

8:59PM: In the state of Mississippi, there is now a grand total of 152 votes counted.  Eaves (D) is up by 84% to 16% for Barbour (R-inc).  Don’t rush them. (Results here.)

8:50PM: In New Jersey, Jeff Van Drew (D) is leading by 55%-45% against Republican incumbent state Sen. Nick Asselta with 18/204 precincts reporting.  Sweet deal.  If Van Drew pulls this off, the DCCC will be knocking on his door to take on Rep. Lobiondo in 2008.

8:45PM: We need four pick-ups to win the Virginia Senate.  So far, we’re up by 50.86%-48.70% in SD01 with 81% in; up by 52.51%-47.46% in SD06 with 53% in; leading huge (60%-40%) in SD34 against the odious Devolites-Davis with 21% in; and leading by 51.89%-47.51% in SD37 with 5% in.  Democrats are trailing closely in a number of other Senate races.

8:29PM: With Kentucky pretty much a done deal, here are the Virginia Senate races to watch, courtesy of MyDD (* denotes incumbent):

  District 1: John C. Miller (D), Patricia B. “Tricia” Stall (R)
  District 6: Ralph S. Northam (D), D. Nick Rerras* (R)
  District 27: Donald C. Marro (I), Karen Schultz (D), Jill Holtzman Vogel (R)
  District 29: Charles J. Colgan* (D), Robert Fitzsimmonds (R)
  District 28: Albert Pollard (D), Richard Stuart (R)
  District 33: Mark R. Herring* (D), Patricia B. Phillips (R)
  District 34: Jeannemarie Devolites Davis* (R), J.C. “Chap” Petersen (D)
  District 37: Ken, II Cuccinelli* (R), Janet S. Oleszek (D)
  District 39: George L. Barker (D), J.K. “Jay” O’Brien, Jr.* (R)

8:20PM: DitchMitchKY has got an interesting map of Kentucky returns.  60.4% Beshear with 64% of precincts reporting.

8:12PM: Beshear’s at 60.7% with 56.1% of precincts in.

8:08PM: Local TV is calling the Governor’s race for Democrat Steve Beshear and the SoS office for incumbent Republican Trey Grayson.

8:04PM: With 49.8% of precincts reporting, Beshear is back at 60.2%.

7:59PM: Republican Incumbent Nick Rerras in Norfolk is losing to Democrat Ralph S. Northam by 53.50%-46.46% with 22% reporting in VA-SD06.

7:58PM: It’s tight, but so far, so good in VA-SD01.  Democrat John Miller leads Republican Tricia Stall by 50.77%-48.95% with 38.09% of precincts reporting.  This is a Republican-held open seat.

7:51PM: 45.8% of precincts are reporting in Kentucky, and Beshear is leading by 59.8%-40.2%.  I hope our guy can get back above 60%, but a blowout is still a blowout.

7:43PM: Here’s one Virginia race that I’ll be watching closely: SD34, where the odious Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (the wife of Congressman Tom Davis) is facing off with Chap Petersen (D).  With 2 of 47 precincts reporting, Chap is leading by a 63%-37% margin.  Not exactly a mandate yet, but let’s hope he can ride to victory.  Results here.

7:35PM: It looks like Trey Grayson will be the one bright spot for the KY GOP, as he’s clinging to an 11 point lead with 35% of precincts reporting — well ahead of Fletcher.

7:33PM: From the Bluegrass Report:

Forgy is on KET right now, blaming Republicans for Fletcher’s situation, complaining that $5 million was spent in the primary against the governor. Called the party “fractured” and that Fletcher couldn’t get back the element that Mitch McConnell and Steve Pence took out. Says it’s up to the “Louisville faction” to “create the unity” and putting party back together. When asked if Forgy is going to challenge McConnell he refused to say but said he was “very angry” and so were others at the GOP Election Night event.

7:20PM: With 27.3% of precincts reporting, Beshear continues to cruise by a 62.3%-37.7% margin.

7:16PM: Keep an eye on the Virginia results; polls closed there 15 minutes ago.

7:12PM: With 20% of precincts reporting, Beshear is leading Fletcher by 63.9% to 36.1%.

7:03PM: Some news from the OH-05 special primary — I just received word that Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is keeping the polls open in Putnam County until 9pm, so the results will be a bit delayed in this race.

6:58PM: To give you a sense of how badly Fletcher is doing, check out the results in Owsley County.  In 2003, Fletcher crushed Ben Chandler (D) by a 33% margin in the county.  Beshear won the county by 5 votes tonight.

6:53PM EST: Here we go.  With 12.7% precincts reporting, Steve Beshear is crushing Ernie Fletcher by 64.2%-35.8% in the Kentucky Governor’s race.  Trey Grayson (R), is holding on to the Secretary of State office against his unknown Democratic opponent by a 54.2%-45.8% margin.

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Results are starting to trickle in from Kentucky, with Beshear/Mongiardo up by a 64-36 margin in the early reports.

I’m going to go grab a quick bite to eat, but we’ll be back soon to liveblog tonight’s local elections.

Now’s your last chance to post predictions in the comments!