Month: December 2007

In 2006, Robin Weirauch earned a respectable 43% of the vote in OH-05, while Paul Gillmor took 57%. As you watch the returns coming in this evening, keep these county-by-county results handy:

County	Weirauch ’06	Gillmor ’06
Ashland	1,895 (45%)	2,350 (55%)
Crawford	6,715 (42%)	9,405 (58%)
Defiance	5,851 (45%)	7,192 (55%)
Fulton	6,754 (43%)	8,939 (57%)
Henry	4,917 (43%)	6,468 (57%)
Huron	7,583 (43%)	10,093 (57%)
Lucas	3,197 (48%)	3,465 (52%)
Mercer	1,094 (32%)	2,348 (68%)
Paulding	3,349 (45%)	4,099 (55%)
Putnam	4,628 (33%)	9,350 (67%)
Sandusky	9,481 (42%)	12,942 (58%)
Seneca	8,054 (40%)	11,892 (60%)
Van Wert	3,689 (36%)	6,586 (64%)
Williams	5,650 (44%)	7,101 (56%)
Wood	21,692 (49%)	22,258 (51%)
Wyandot	1,406 (37%)	2,410 (63%)

In the comments a few weeks ago, Sean ran the numbers:

The key to winning this district



Is to win by about 57%-43% in Wood County, which is a swing county and casts about 18% of the vote. Robin got 49% here in 2006, when she won 43% district wide. She then has to run about even in nominally Republican Sandusky county, which casts about 10% of the vote. The other county that she must win by about 53%-47% is Huron county, which casts about 8% of the vote. She got 43% here in 2006. The last is Seneca county, which is leans Republican, but not heavily. She needs to get about 55% here. Finally, she has to do reasonably well in the rest of the district, where she must hold Latta to no more than 54%.

Definitely something to make note of as we watch the returns.

Today’s the day.  Polls are open in the special elections to replace the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).

Unfortunately, I have to catch a plane in a few hours, so posting will be slower today.  However, once the polls close, we should be rolling with liveblog coverage.

If you have predictions for the results in OH-05 or VA-01, now’s your chance to post them in the comments and claim bragging rights when the returns come in exactly as you called it.

In an amazing report tonight, The Politico quotes a GOP source as saying that a poll taken by the campaign of State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) last week showed him trailing Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) by four points.

On the ground in Ohio, we’ve been hearing that internal polls showed a close race, and there was an exciting rumor last week that Weirauch’s pollster said she was only down by three points. This race seemed like it was amazingly close for a R+10 district, but still a long shot. Now, with this leak about Latta’s poll, victory looks like a very real possibility tomorrow.

More after the flip.

The story in The Politico also reports that the campaign manager for State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) in the GOP primary, Jim Banks, concedes that “there’s an effect from a primary that’s been carried over” and “no one can deny it was a very nasty and physical election.” He also told The Politico that Weirauch “appeals more to the union and working-class voters – the people who are struggling the most and that want the most change,” and that the bread-and-butter issues on which Weirauch has focused “polled at the top of voter concerns during the primary.”

In contrast to Weirauch’s hard-hitting populist campaign, a GOP source reported to The Politico that Latta’s campaign “was unprepared to handle the race’s newfound attention” and the NRCC “had to dispose resources to respond effectively.” The Politico’s source called the Latta’s ground game “lackluster” and said “the NRCC has become the campaign by proxy.”

Robin Weirauch has busted her butt in this campaign and made great use of the resources and volunteers that she never had in her prior two bids for this seat. She has displayed tremendous message discipline, hammering the jobs and working-class values message over and over, along with her theme of “shaking up Washington.” I will be blogging from Weirauch headquarters in Bowling Green tomorrow, where the energy is reported to be sky high and the GOTV effort is cranking along at top speed. Check Ohio Daily Blog for updates.

My name is Betsy Decillis and I am the Finance Director for the Barry Welsh for Congress Campaign.  I’ve got some exciting news!

First off, today is Barry’s birthday.  He turns 49 years young and I wanted to make sure everyone had a chance to send him their well wishes.

Secondly, you can still get Sherri’s recipe for Double Chocolate Drop Cookies!  Just donate $12.10 in honor of Barry’s Birthday here and she will e-mail you the recipe.  Thanks to everyone that has donated so far!

Another day, another terrible poll for Alaska’s scandal-plagued duo of Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young.

Research 2000 for DailyKos (12/3-6, likely voters):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49%

Don Young (R-inc): 42%

Mark Begich (D): 47%

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 41%

(MoE: ±4%)

The fact that Young is losing to Berkowitz is not so surprising anymore.  An August poll conducted for the DCCC showed Berkowitz with a 5 point lead, and an internal poll for Democratic challenger Diane Benson had Young down by nearly 15% at the end of October.

The numbers for Stevens against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, his potential ’08 opponent, are the real eye-openers, and show just how embarrassed Alaskans have grown over their federal representation over the course of the year.  The biggest danger for Democrats?  A primary defeat or a retirement from either of them.  But given how pompous both of these crumb-bums are (e.g., Young’s actual slogan on his website is: “No one has done more.  No one will do more.”), I bet this gruesome twosome will attempt to stick it out.

Please read this statement and consider whether this powerful new voice in Southern Democratic politics deserves your $upport.

Bush-Bonner gang torpedoes energy bill;

‘example of corrupt government at work’

Contact: Ben Lodmell, Candidate for Congress

              PO Box 40926 – Mobile, AL 36640

              Telephone: 251-404-2663

MOBILE, December 10, 2007 – When the Bush-Bonner gang torpedoed the Energy Bill last week it was “a near-perfect example of corrupt government at work,” according to a statement issued today by Ben Lodmell, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Alabama’s first congressional district.

“Had it passed, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 would have reduced oil imports, raised automobile fuel-efficiency standards for the first time in 32 years and required electric utilities to increase use of renewable energy, all of which are beneficial to the country,” Lodmell said. “But Bush’s man in Mobile, Rep. Jo Bonner, joined with every other Republican in Alabama’s congressional delegation to make sure the historic bill died so their friends in the oil and gas industry could remain fat and happy.”

What prompted Senate Republicans to cut off debate on the bill, which had been passed by a 231-to-181 margin in the House a day earlier, was a $21 billion tax package. Included was the rollback of $13.5 billion in tax breaks enjoyed by some of the country’s largest oil and gas companies. Among other things, the taxes would have been used to extend tax credits for wind, solar, and biomass power, as well as hybrid cars.

Adding to the Republican push to kill the Energy Bill was an earlier threat of another presidential veto if the bill passed with the contentious tax package and renewable energy requirement included.

“If enacted,” Lodmell said, “the bill would have required vehicles to average 35 miles per gallon, a 40% increase over current standards. The bill would have saved 1.1 million barrels of oil a day. It would have increased yearly ethanol production by seven-fold. And it would have required electric utilities to up their use of renewable energy sources by 15%. According to some estimates, that would have cut energy bills by as much as $18.1 billion by 2020 and up to $32 billion by 2030.”

“Clearly, the big winners here,” Lodmell said, “are no surprise. They’re the special interest groups the Bush-Bonner gang loves to make more and more profitable – the oil and gas companies and their cousins in the public utility industry, none of which is bashful about financially supporting the re-election campaigns of the politicians who support them.

“The big losers, however, are the American people, whose government has been taken from them and corrupted by those self-same special interests whose only interests are their own.”

Lodmell said it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Senate and House negotiators came up with a stripped-down compromise bill that in the last analysis satisfies no one but the President and his Congressional lackeys and their special interest benefactors.

“The only bright light in an otherwise dismal display of this corrupted Republican government at work,” Lodmell said, “is that Americans will have a chance at the ballot box next year to take our government back.”

Lodmell declared his candidacy for the Democratic Party’s nomination for Congress from the first district in August. He describes himself as the people’s representative. “I’m a fiscally responsible pragmatist and an independent-thinker who can bridge the ideological extremes that often get in the way of getting the people’s business done in Congress.”

   

When you’re the Republican nominee in a district that Bush carried by 22 points in 2004, and you’re squaring off in a special election against a candidate whose only prior political experience was losing the seat twice by wide margins, it seems that you don’t make a lot of friends when the debt-addled NRCC is forced to bail out your sagging campaign with $428,000 in independent expenditures.

Roll Call has the dirt:

Although the candidates and party committees weren’t releasing any polling late last week, both sides agreed the race could be fairly close – and many Republicans were flabbergasted.

“The [GOP] Members are running around saying, ‘What just happened?'” said a Washington Republican with knowledge of the district. “To put it bluntly, they’re pissed off. People are angry that Bob Latta hasn’t devoted himself better on the campaign trial to connect with northwest Ohio voters and given an opportunity to an opponent who was so far off the radar and actually made it a race.” […]

“It’s like the Latta campaign is trying to write a handbook on how to lose a Congressional campaign in 60 days or less,” said the Republican. “When Bob Latta lost the first Congressional race back in 1988 to then-Ohio Senate President Paul Gillmor, he was a young kid with no electoral experience. He came close and people always expected he would be back. But if Bob Latta loses this race to Robin Weirauch, a candidate who Gillmor defeated twice with barely a sweat, it will be an enormous embarrassment to Latta personally.”

Now, I don’t deny that Republicans could be angry with Bob Latta.  GOP strategists have every reason to be blowing a fuse over the NRCC’s hefty expenditures in an R+10 district.  At the same time, though, this kind of grumbling could be equally driven by a desire to game expectations so that a win by Latta will be seen as a greater feat for Republicans.

In reality, despite a bruising primary followed by a weak campaign by Latta, the deck is still stacked against Robin Weirauch here.  For one thing, there are only six districts in the nation that are more Republican leaning than OH-05 and are held by Democrats: MO-04 (Ike Skelton), ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy), TX-22 (Nick Lampson), MS-04 (Gene Taylor), UT-02 (Jim Matheson), and TX-17 (Chet Edwards).  These are all seats held by very exceptional and very experienced campaigners.

The other factor is money; while Weirauch has benefited from a tidy sum of DCCC expenditures ($243,748.14, to be exact), the NRCC has spent more.  Additionally, Latta’s coffers have been flooded with big dollar donations in recent days, including over $150,000 on Friday and Saturday, and that’s coming off some other similarly large fundraising reports from Latta in recent weeks.  From a quick glance at Robin Weirauch’s FEC filings, she has collected over $200,000 in large dollar donations since the primary.  A very strong showing for a Democrat here, but one that has been outpaced by Latta.

Make no mistake, for Weirauch to even come close on Tuesday would be beating the odds here.  But the chance of an upset, even if it’s a long shot, is still reason enough for the GOP to be grumbling over Bob Latta.

The GOP is continuing to pour its resources into the OH-05 special election.  The latest expenditure?  $17,319 on phone banks this weekend.  That kind of money can buy you an awful lot of phone calls, especially of the robotic variety.

This brings the NRCC’s total tab in the OH-05 race to $428,001.

Meanwhile, GOP money is flowing fast and furious into Bob Latta’s campaign coffers.  In his most recent 48 hour fundraising reports, Latta brought in $110,100 on December 7th, and another $45,700 yesterday (including $15K from himself).  If you dig through the reports, Latta is raking in cash from the campaign committees of all sorts of congresscritters: Steve Chabot, Frank Wolf, Mario Diaz-Balart, Bill Shuster, Pat Tiberi, Chris Shays, Jon Porter, and others.

Let it be known that Republicans are throwing everything they’ve got into this race.

After the announcement of Martin Chavez’ departure, to start the weekend, it only seemed fitting to end the weekend with another rundown of just who is running for the House and Senate in 2008.  With all a Senate seat up for grabs along with all three House seats, it promises to be an exciting year in New Mexico politics.

The primaries will be held on June 3rd for all these races, but the preprimary nominating conventions will be held March 15.  It is at the preprimary nominating convention where the candidates attempt to get on their party’s ballot for the primary.

We’ll start with the big race, where it looks like the field is set — though that’s what I said last month and we’ve had a big change since then.

Senate

For the Democrats, the clear frontrunner is Tom Udall, who only gained more momentum when Martin Chavez dropped out of the race.  Also in the race is alternative magazine publisher Leland Lehrman who is running a campaign from the far-left.

On the Republican side of things, it is Representative Steve Pearce against Representative Heather Wilson.  Both are, like Udall, giving up their House seats to take a run at being a US Senator.  

There is an Independent in the race, Zach Boatman, a teacher at Santa Fe High School.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District seat is in central New Mexico and serves Albuquerque. It has been held by Republicans since the state received a third Congressional District in 1969.  The seat has been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998.  Wilson has been rocked by scandals, but is now running for the open Senate seat (above).  The district has a PVI of D+2.4.

The Democrats in the race are led by Martin Heinrich, with Michelle Lujan-Grisham a step below the former Albuquerque city councilor.  Two lesser-tier challengers are also in the race, Jon Adams and Jason Call.

Prominent author Alisa Valdez-Rodgriguez is also considering a run at the seat.

For Republicans, the former Bernalillo County Bush/Cheney campaign chairman and sheriff Darren White is the frontrunner, followed by the, shall we say, outspoken state Sen. Joe Carraro.  

Also considering the race, though it looks increasingly less-likely she will enter with each passing day, is Janice Arnold-Jones.

Second Congressional District

New Mexico’s Second Congressional District encompasses much of New Mexico south of I-40, including the cities of Las Cruces, Roswell, Carlsbad, Hobbs and Socorro.  The seat has been in the hands of Republicans since 1981 and Rep. Steve Pearce has held the seat since 2003.  Pearce is running for the Senate seat (above).  The district’s PVI is R+5.7.

For Democrats, the crowded field of challengers is led by State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, who had been mentioned as a possible challenger to Pearce for previous cycles.  Also in the race are Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County commissioner Harry Teague. Retired Roswell school teacher Frank McKinnon and Presbyterian minister Al Kissling round out the field of official entrants in the race; the last two will have a tough time reaching the 20 percent number at the preprimary convention.

Two Democrats still have not made a decision on running; State Sen. John Arthur Smith and State Rep. Jeff Steinborn.

For Republicans, this is a chance of a lifetime; it is a seat that is solidly Republican and has been held by a far-right Republican for years.  Former Bernalillo County GOP executive director Bob Cornelius, rancher Aubrey L. Dunn Jr. and businessman Ed Tinsley have all officially thrown their hat in the ring for the Republican nomination.  

The Republicans who have been reported to be considering taking a run at the seat are Domenici staffer Clint Chandler, Sierra County GOP chair C. Earl Greer and former state representative Terry Marquardt.  No matter what, this looks to be a crowded primary race on both sides.

Third Congressional District

New Mexico’s Third Congressional District came into existence in 1983 and has been held by Democrats ever since then except for a term from 1997-1999.  The district covers most of Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe, most of Rio Rancho, Taos and Farmington.  Rep. Tom Udall has held this seat since 1999 and is leaving the seat to run for Senate (above).  The PVI for the district is D+5.5.

This is the seat most friendly to Democrats in the state, and is considered a “safe Democrat hold” by all political observers.  In the race so far are Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott, Santa Fe County commissioner Harry Montoya and  secretary for the state’s Indian Affairs Department Benny Shendo Jr.  

But the big name in the room is a Democrat who is still officially in the “consideration” stages — Public Regulation Commission chairman Ben Ray Lujan.  Lujan’s father is Ben Lujan, the Speaker of the state House.  Also considering are Santa Fe County sheriff Greg Solano and former state Rep. Patsy Trujillo.

As of yet, no Republicans have officially entered the race to be the sacrificial lamb to take on whichever Democrat wins the nomination.  But considering are LANL engineer Ron Dolin, and state Rep. Brian Moore.  Dolin lost to Udall by an incredible margin in 2006.

Candidate filing in Texas closes in less than a month – 2nd January – and we still don’t have confirmed candidates in a large number of Congressional House districts!

Once again go and take a look at the  

2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details………….

Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats who according to the Texas Dems website are all running again as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)

TX-09 – D+21,

TX-15 – D+3,

TX-16 – D+9,

TX-17 – R+18,

TX-18 – D+23,

TX-20 – D+8,

TX-22 – R+15,

TX-23 – R+4,

TX-25 – D+1,

TX-27 – R+1,

TX-28 – R+1,

TX-29 – D+8,

TX-30 – D+26,

That leaves 19 Republican held districts.

Again according to the Texas Dems website there are challengers in 4 of those 19 districts:

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

These four districts thus have candidates that have officially filed. That leaves 15.

Five further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-32 – R+11,

That leaves ten districts with no confirmed candidate – yep more than half of the GOP held districts have no Democratic candidate at this point!

And here they are:

TX-01 – R+17,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-02 – R+12,

Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.

TX-05 – R+16,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-06 – R+15,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

(our 2006 candidate is definitely not running either.)

TX-11 – R+25,

After Brad Vincent withdrew earlier this year Floyd Crider has apparently been collecting petition signatures but has yet to file with the TDP or the FEC and does not yet have a campaign website. Any further news on him?

* This is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006!*

TX-12 – R+14,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-14 – R+14,

We had a candidate then he switched parties!

(2006 candidate is out.)

TX-19 – R+25,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-21 – R+13,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-24 – R+15,

According to a comment at Daily Kos a real estate agent Bill Eden has filed. He hasn’t yet filed with the TDP or the FEC.

Less than a month to go and we need 10 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?