Month: February 2008

Chalk up another Republican retirement!  John Shadegg, the congressman from Arizona’s 3rd District and a former contender for the position of Republican House leader, announced today that he will retire.  The good news just keeps on coming!

AP/SacBee has the unfortunate news:

Rep. Tom Lantos of California, the only Holocaust survivor to serve in Congress, has died, his spokeswoman said Monday.

Lynne Weil said that Lantos, 80, passed away at the Bethesda Naval Medical Center in suburban Maryland.

Lantos was the only Holocaust survivor in Congress and had a long record on human rights issues.

Lantos, who was elected to the House in 1980, founded the Congressional Human Rights Caucus in 1983. In early 2004 he led the first congressional delegation to Libya in more than 30 years, meeting personally with Moammar Gadhafi and urging the Bush administration to show “good faith” to the North African leader in his pledge to abandon his nuclear weapons programs. Later that year, President Bush lifted sanctions against Libya.

Lantos had already announced his retirement because of the cancer.  He becomes the second California member of Congress to succumb to cancer in this session after Juanita Millender-McDonald who passed away in April.

Tom Lantos was a giant and will be missed both as a legislator and a person.

I was looking through the year end reports for the 30 Democrats elected to formerly Republican seats in 2006 and comparing their cash on hand totals to the Republican challenger with the most cash (with the exception of Mark Foley).  The result showed Democrats with a mighty $27 million to $5 million edge for the group.   Of course, we elect House members on a district by district basis.  And the new Democratic reps lead in every district, in all but a handful by an overwhelming margin.  It was pretty clear that cash was going to be a major “defensive barrier” for Democratic control of the House in 2009 and beyond.  Several other questions came to mind.

First, were there any Democrats seeking re-election who had a cash on hand deficit.  Well, yes, there was one.  One in the whole country.  Nikki Tsongas trailed Jim Oganowski $10,900 to $43,500 but Tsongas had raised and spent $2.6 million in the recent special election.  The figure seemed meaningless.  More like a donor respite than donor fatigue.  Second, how many Republican seats were in a similar deficit?

The answer, was skewed somewhat by the recent spate of retirements.  In some districts, a recent open seat pitted an active Democratic candidate against a testing the waters Republican without much of a warchest.  But that, too, is a reality.  Oh, yes.  The answer is eighteen seats, nearly a tenth of the Republican total.  Here is the list with some comments including the district PVI via Benawu’s listings.

CT-4   PVI = D+5

Democrat Jim Himes shows $800,248 in the bank; New England’s last Republican House member, Chris Shays trails with $797,413.  There will be no Lieberman on the ballot with Shays coat tails either.

NJ-3   PVI= D+3.3

The Democratic candidate of choice for an open seat, John Adler shows $590,595 in the bank.  No Republican dented the FEC reports for this open seat currently held by Jim Saxton.

NJ-7   PVI=R+1

Mike Ferguson, 37 year old Mike Ferguson, gave up the ghost and left this seat open.  Linda Stender, who lost a hard fought election by 3,000 votes in 2006, leads the money race with $502,305 in the bank.  Former first daughter Kate Whitman leads the Republicans with $200,535.  Mommy was barely elected governor -twice.  She “cut” taxes but left a mess.  (Property taxes are very high here.  A later rebate was accompanied by roads badly in need of repair in a state with the highest median income in the country.)

NY-25   PVI=D+3

When Jim Walsh unexpectedly announced his retirement he left Dan Maffei with $439,243 in the bank and no opponent.  Looking good.

NY-29   PVI=R+5

Eric Massa has the cash edge in a rematch against Randy Kuhl.  Massa’a got $414,603; Kuhl has $362,513.  Kuhl has his problems and this was a lot closer than the PVI last time around.

AZ-1   PVI=R+2

In a rare battle of two women, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has nearly a 2-1 edge over Republican Sydney Ann Hay in a battle to succeed the embattled Rick Renzi.  If Democrats hold their seats and win this, they will gain control of Arizona’s House delegation by a surprising 5 to 3 margin.  

CA-4   PVI=R+11

Scandal plagued John Doolittle is off to retirement but Charlie Brown has an early, but solid cash lead with $483,489 to Erik Egland’s $78,700.  Off his near miss in 2006, Brown has the name recognition, too.  It’s a good year, Charlie Brown.

ID-1   PVI=R+19

This may be the biggest stunner on the list.  Freshman Wingnut Bill Sali has $100,023; Walter Minnick has $311,168.  Walter Minnick?

IL-11   PVI=R+1.1

Debbie Halvorson has $393,764; Tim Balderman trails with $50,414 in an open seat battle.  Once more, looking good.

IL-14   PVI=R+5

This is deceptive.  Both candidates are coming off hard primaries.  As of 12/31, millionaire Democrat Bill Foster led multi-millionaire and self-funder Jim Oberweis with $508,792 to $396,975.  Oberweis has already poured $1.6 million into his campaign.  

MI-7   PVI+R+2

Freshman winger Tim Walberg ($438,005) is outraised by Mark Schauer.  Is there an upset brewing?  Only cash seems to stand in the way of gaining seats in Michigan.  

MO-9   PVI+R+7

Kenny Hulshoff recently announced he was running for governor making this an open seat and giving at least a temporary lead to Judy Baker ($101,042).  A girl can dream, can’t she?  Let’s see if Baker gains some traction, here.  

NM-1   PVI=D+2

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Heinrich has a solid  lead over Republican Darren White: $277,146 to $172,558.  Incumbent Heather Wilson, like all the NM Congress critters, is running for the open Senate seat.  We should win this one.  Should anyway.

NM-2   PVI=R+6

Democrat Harry Teague has $362,735; Republican Ed Tinsley has $283,890.  The fall matchup is certainly not set, however.

OH-2   PVI=R+13

Mean Jean Schmidt puts this one in play.  Her 2006 opponent, physician Victoria Wulsin has $344,315; Schmidt lags with $124,857 and is now the leading Republican after “Heimlich maneuvered out.”  It may be easier taking this than keeping it.  Let’s go from there.

TX-10   PVI=R+13

TV judge Larry Doherty has the drop on incumbent Michael McCaul with $267,475 to $115,642.  Doherty first has to get by Dan Grant in a Democratic primary battle.

WA-8   PVI=D+2

In a re-match, Darcy Burner has banked $607,143; incumbent Dave Reichert has $462,828.  Reichert’s local notoriety as the sherriff who put away the Green River Killer is fading; so may be his career in the House.  Burner held him to a virtual tie last time and enjoys better name recognition and more cash than in 2006.  Will this be her year?  Quite possibly.

WY-At Large   PVI=R+19

Gary Trauner nearly pulled this one off in 2006.  He’s got $353,290 in the bank and no Republican has emerged to take the place of Barbara Cubin (Dick Cheney without the charm, who has $1,399 left should she change her mind).  Republicans have to defend two Senate seats in Wyoming and that may also help Trauner.

At least 13 others are reasonably close and many more will become competitive.  The NRCC is cash strapped and the DCCC has a large edge.  Money wise, it looks like a promising cycle at this point.

We all remember the chaos of Hurricane Katrina. We all remember watching our fellow citizens that desperately needed a competent response to this disaster as they were left behind. This was a huge disaster, but the fact of the matter is that it could have been handled better. The fact of the matter is that it was a disgrace that it wasn’t.  

Just look at this quote from Wikipedia:

Within the United States and as delineated in the National Response Plan, disaster response and planning is first and foremost a local government responsibility. When local government exhausts its resources, it then requests specific additional resources from the county level. The request process proceeds similarly from the county to the state to the federal government as additional resource needs are identified. Many of the problems that arose developed from inadequate planning and back-up communications systems at various levels.

This way of doing things in regards to disasters was proven a complete and total failure. What if we are hit again soon with a disaster on the scale of Hurricane Katrina? Have our leaders done anything to change a fundamentally flawed system that leaves our citizens such as the ones in New Orleans behind? Are they even trying?

One candidate in Kentucky’s First District is speaking on this. Heather Ryan, Democratic candidate for Congress is calling for a National Emergency Plan:

National Preparedness:  Where would you go if there was a national, state or local emergency?  What would you do if severe weather hit your area?  What if you lived in a mobile home or had no transportation to get to higher ground?  These are serious issues that the Republican party has had 7 years to think about and plan around since the War on Terror began.  

When Hurricane Katrina hit the gulf coast, thousands of low income people were without a plan and were abandoned by the Bush administration.  When tornadoes hit Kentucky and the south on February 5th, 2008 my family and I found ourselves in the same situation.  A low income family, living in a mobile home park with nowhere to go.  The people who died in those storms were largely like us, they knew they were in danger but they had no plan.  WE NEED A NATIONAL EMERGENCY PLAN!  

Every life in our nation is precious and deserves protection against the elements and terrorist threats; not just the lives of the Republican Party’s rich donors deserve to have shelter in times of crisis.  As your congressional representative, I will immediately begin work on a national emergency plan.  Unlike the Republicans, who want you to be afraid, I do not believe that Fear Mongering is a plan, instead it is a tool for their re-election campaigns.  I will be part of the solution – not the problem!

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Mrs. Ryan is exactly right on this issue. We need more people in Congress that are in touch with the problems that face Americans on Main St., not just Wall St. We need to elect leaders like Heather to the Congress who will make sure that we develop a national emergency plan that doesn’t leave citizens and states behind when tragedy strikes.

Heather Ryan is an awesome, grassroots Democrat that is already running in the fall against Exxon Ed Whitfield in Kentucky’s First. An investment in her is an investment in increasing our Congressional majority for the next President. Won’t you make an investment in grassroots Democrats who want to fight for our party? Please, help us by going here and investing in fighting Democrats:

http://actblue.com/page/ryanfo…

We are already facing over a million dollars of special interest money in one of the poorest Congressional Districts in America. Won’t you chip in to help grassroots Democrats pull an upset in Kentucky?

Heather Ryan for Kentucky!!

Omaha World Herald reports:

Rep. Lee Terry apparently wants two more years in Congress.

The Omaha Republican will discuss his “re-election intentions” at 2 p.m. Sunday at the Omaha Police Union Hall.

Terry first ran for Congress in 1998, defeating Democrat Michael Scott by 32 percentage points. In his most recent re-election bid, in 2006, Terry won with 55 percent of the vote against Democrat Jim Esch.

Terry recently held a Washington fundraiser and said that was a good indicator of his political plans.

The 2nd Congressional District encompasses Douglas County and much of northern and eastern Sarpy County.

Congressman Terry did in fact announce his intentions for another term in Congress. He promised his supporters that this year he would be on his “A” game and suggested that last cycle his campaign was not prepared when he faced Democrat Jim Esch.

As I reported yesterday, Richard Carter, a  Captain in the Air Force Reserve and an economics professor, addressed the Sarpy County Democratic Caucus and announced his candidacy for United States Congress. He told the Sarpy County caucus goers:

“With all of the problems that we face, it would have been easy for us to throw our hands up in disgust, to become cynical, to withdraw from the political process. But all of us here today have refused to do that. We know there is too much at stake for us to sit on the sidelines. It is time for a new generation of leadership to step forward-and actually lead. Therefore, I, Richard Carter, declare my candidacy for the United States Congress.”

Congressman Terry plan to be on his “A” game and so do we. But we need your help. I don’t need to tell you how important this election this, so please click here to find out how to get involved.

If you can spare it, a contribution of $25 can go a long way in helping us get this campaign moving.

Also feel free to check out our brand new website and sign up for email updates! Thank you once again for your early support.

NY-26 Democratic candidate Jon Powers is gaining more and more momentum. In fact, his campaign is at an excellent point right now. On Thursday, Powers was endorsed by the Wyoming County Democratic Committee. This was the fourth county Democratic committee to endorse Powers in his run to unseat Tom Reynolds.

The announcement regarding the endorsement came attached with a list of those who have already endorsed Powers.

Here is that list:

Wyoming County Democrats have answered the call for a change in leadership in New York’s 26th Congressional District.  Last night, by an overwhelming majority, the Wyoming Democratic Committee endorsed Jon Powers’ campaign for Congress.  Powers is running against embattled representative Tom Reynolds.  “I am thrilled to have the support of Wyoming County Democrats.  My family has deep roots here, my father was born and raised in Pearl Creek, and it means a lot to me to have their endorsement,” said Jon Powers, former captain in the U.S. Army, Iraq war veteran and Democratic candidate for Congress.

Wyoming is the 4th Democratic Committee to endorse Powers’ candidacy and shows that Jon’s message of leading by example and putting problem-solving ahead of party politics is resonating with the voters.  Powers now holds the endorsement of the majority of the counties in his district.

Powers’ Endorsements:

·         Genesee County Democratic Committee

·         Livingston County Democratic Committee

·         Orleans County Democratic Committee

·         Wyoming County Democratic Committee

·         Town of Clarence Democratic Committee

·         SEIU 1199

·         AFSCME Local 264

·         VoteVets

·         VetPAC

·         General Wesley Clark

·         Senator Bob Kerrey

·         Senator John Kerry

It’s amazing the support Powers is getting. He also makes the occasional contribution to the blogosphere. Also on Thursday, Powers wrote a post on The Albany Project entitled, “Iraq’s Junior Mujhadeen.” Jon also posted the piece on Daily Kos, Huffington Post and Rochester Turning. Much of Jon’s work on the issues of children becoming extremists in Iraq can be linked to a group he founded, War Kids Relief. (Note: I spoke with Jon about War Kids and he said that the website is under some maintenance right now. But for future reference, the website can be found here.)

Jon’s campaign is riding high. I reported last week that Jon had raised over $139,000 during the fourth quarter and had over $261,000 cash on hand. He’s received huge support in the past and will continue to do so from some top-notch people.

One thing is for certain: Jon Powers is for real. The four county Democratic committees that have endorsed Jon thus far (Livingston County, Orleans County, Genesee County and the aforementioned Wyoming County) all are rural counties in the 26th congressional district. They are predominantly Republican and if Jon is going to win this race, he’ll need the rural Democrats behind him. We plan to do just that, just like we have since Jon declared in June 2007.

On the web:

Contribute to Jon Powers for Congress

Jon Powers for Congress

Today, Richard Carter, a Captain in the Air Force Reserve and an economics professor, addressed the Sarpy County Democratic Caucus and announced his candidacy for United States Congress:

“With all of the problems that we face, it would have been easy for us to throw our hands up in disgust, to become cynical, to withdraw from the political process. But all of us here today have refused to do that. We know there is too much at stake for us to sit on the sidelines. It is time for a new generation of leadership to step forward-and actually lead. Therefore, I, Richard Carter, declare my candidacy for the United States Congress.”

With Richard’s announcement comes the launch of our new website. Check it out at RichardCarter2008.com. You can find out how to get involved with the campaign and learn more about Richard and his positions on various issues.

We have also set up our ActBlue page for those that would like to donate to the Richard Carter Congressional campaign.

Thank you for your early support.

Sorry for the inactivity here, folks.  I’m currently working on a campaign that is consuming nearly every waking second of my life.  But the good news for SSP is that this will all be over in the first week of March.  I’ll have more to say on this subject later.

In the meantime, feel free to use this as an open thread to discuss any of the recent retirements (OR-05), announcements (Joe Garcia in FL-25) or presidential caucuses and primaries today (LA, NE, and WA on the Dem side).

richard k. means, the best progressive election lawyer in the state of illinois, explains that the procedure for obtaining a recount is quite clear:

A discovery recount is only available in Illinois to a candidate who is within 95% of the winner.  Even then you get to recount only 25% of the precincts in every election jusridiction in the district for a pidling $10 per precinct.  In order to change the result, you have to go to court and prove that, had certain very specificly described errors not been made, that your candidate would have won.

means is one of the authors of the 2002 handbook on illinois election law published by the illinois institute for continuing legal education and wrote the chapter on recounts in the state.

laesch would clearly be within his right to call for a discovery recount (in the regular primary), since he’s within the margin allowed by law.  but, as the hill points out,

Split Illinois results could muddle Dems’ plans to take Hastert seat

By Aaron Blake

Posted: 02/06/08 07:12 PM [ET]

A close race in the Democratic contest to succeed former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) could hurt the party’s chances to win Hastert’s seat in a March special election to fill out the term, and in a general election in November.

Bill Foster led John Laesch by six points and declared victory in the Democratic primary for the special election to fill the seat for the remainder of Hastert’s term. He will now face Republican Jim Oberweis, who won his party’s special election.

But in the contest to be the Democratic nominee in November, Foster led Laesch by just 323 votes out of 75,000 cast.

Laesch, the Democratic nominee against Hastert in 2006, has yet to concede, but also has yet to ask for a recount.

If the result changed and Laesch became the Democratic nominee in the general primary, Democrats would have different candidates in the March special election to fill out Hastert’s term, and in the general election to elect a candidate to the 111th Congress.

In effect, Foster could potentially win the seat next month but not be his party’s nominee in November.

A challenge to the result could also cause Foster additional headaches during the short five-week period before the special election, which will be held March 8. The regular primary result will not be certified until March 7. This could make his chances of defeating Oberweis in a district that favored President Bush in the 2004 election even more difficult.

there are many misperceptions about recounts, and some wishful thinking, but there’s considerable pressure for the laesch campaign to go through an expensive and tedious recount — just because.  laesch himself hasn’t ruled out a recount request.  but the claim that they are waiting for the absentee ballots to come in before conceding is worrisome:

Outstanding Ballots:

Kendall County – 10 Outstanding Democratic Absentee Ballots

Kane County – 82 Outstanding Democratic Ballots, there are additional military and student ballots out but according to the Clerk’s office an extremely small number of those will be returned.

City of Aurora – There are a total of 100-130 absentee and provisional ballots. They would not indicate the exact number and these include Republican and Non-Partisan ballots.

Dekalb – 31 Total outstanding Democratic ballots.

Dupage is going to take a while.

even if laesch won every single one of the outstanding ballots, there aren’t enough that will be returned to overturn this election.  an early comment about “counting provisional ballots” was misinformed, as provisional ballots are counted in the initial returns, and removed after 48 hours if cause is provided.

the confusion we see coming out of the laesch camp seems to be based on progressive resentments about elections built up over this decade, the lack of professional campaign management and a misunderstanding of election law by laesch’s supporters.  i can’t clear all that up, but i can explain some of what laesch would face if he did decide he wanted a recount.

first of all, it’s important to acknowledge that recounts can change election outcomes.  one need only look at the gubernatorial race in washington state for that.  closer to home — and under the same laws that would apply if laesch were to request a recount — we find:

The Mayoral Election in Calument City was overturned 3 or 4 years ago for absentee ballot fraud.  I [rich means] reversed a Palatine Rural Fire District tax increase referendum about 5 or 6 years ago because the election judges gave voters the wrong ballot.  There are probably 4 election contests filed every year in Illinois and 20-25% win.

given the laesch campaign’s paucity of resources, i asked specifically, “how much can a campaign achieve for free or with relatively little in way of funds?”  means’ answer was pretty clear:

Nothing.  The half dozen of lawyers in Illinois experienced in this kind of case charge, like I do, about $250 per hour.  A congressional district discovery recount could cost upwards of  $25,000 and a full-blown election contest in court could cost ballpark $100,000 if hard fought on both sides.

btw (and please, folks, don’t interpret this as anymore than what it is), if i wanted to go forward with a recount, i would certainly be hiring means, given that he’s successfully overturned elections in the past, wrote the book (as it were) on the subject, and has been taking on the machine for years with much success.  i’m not advising anyone, i’m just sayin’.

the time frame for all this — a time frame made more dramatic, given the approach of the special election — is compact:

Within 5 days after the official proclamation of results, you have to file petitions in each election board and each county clerk in the district.  Investigation and other preparations should begin right after the polls close and the discovery recount petition must be filed within 5 days after the proclamation which will ocurr about February 26.

another election law attorney i consulted concurs with rich’s investigation advise.  remember,

In order to change the result, you have to go to court and prove that, had certain very specificly described errors not been made, that your candidate would have won.

ballot fraud — and this typically means absentee ballot fraud — is the primary justification used in recounts that lead to the successful reversal of an election result.  and ballot fraud is the tool of the local party establishment, not the “outsider” candidate or campaign.  much has been made about how laesch was the preferred candidate of the local political establishment (which i initially rejected because i understood the tensions between a local democratic official and laesch — but my extrapolation turned out to be wrong).  it would have been laesch, not foster, who would have had the opportunity to commit ballot fraud — and i don’t think anyone would argue that laesch or his campaign would have done so.  the point is that there is little that laesch could hope to achieve by a recount, given his status as the local party establishment candidate.

not to mention how expensive it would be.  given the import of any such recount and followup procedures, one could expect foster to aggressively defend his victory in the general primary.  means tells us that “Both the winner and the petitioning loser and credentialled press” can oversee recount procedures.  the process is completely transparent.  the magic, as it were, had to take place before a recount was requested.

clout street, the chicago tribune’s local politics blog, notes that “Foster has declared victory, but Laesch has not yet conceded.”  contrast that with the very similar situation tuesday night where the local democratic establishment candidate tom allen conceded the race to outsider candidate anita alvarez before even 70% of the ballots were counted.  less than 1% of the vote separated those two, as well.  but allen knew, because he had the advice of professional management, that nothing would change.  so allen looks gracious by conceding before any media outlet was ready to call the race.  i don’t think anyone would suggest that laesch looks gracious here:

Democrat to wait for all ballots to be counted in special race to succeed Hastert

Posted by James Kimberly at 12:00 p.m.

Democrat John Laesch said Friday that he won’t concede the Democratic primary election in the 14th Congressional District until all provisional and absentee ballots are counted.

the reality is that modern media effects people’s perceptions of elections.  in this case, people think that after the polls are closed, the elections are over.  laesch is technically correct when he notes that all the votes have not been counted (even though outstanding votes could not alter the outcome).  but his decision to wait does look like sour grapes.  it only serves to divide local democrats.  after all that work that laesch and his supporters put into building up the party, it’s curious that he would now take steps to divide it.  the ball is, most definitely, in john laesch’s court…