IL-14: Laesch Press Conference

As many of you may know, John Laesch held a press conference this morning to discuss the unresolved election in IL-14.  At this point Laesch still trails his primary opponent by 355 votes in the general primary, although all the absentee ballots are not counted (in fact, County Clerks must wait until February 19th for their return) and there is still an outstanding question as to whether all the provisional ballots have been counted in all nine counties.

John Laesch has conceded the special primary to his opponent, who will run against Republican nominee Jim Oberweis on March 8 to decide who will fill the remaining ten months of Hastert’s term, but he has not conceded the general primary, which is still undecided until all votes are counted.  This morning Laesch held a press conference to answer the many questions the campaign has been bombarded with regarding his intentions.  I attended it.  And since the campaign has made it clear they will make no further statements, I will share my observations and the text of his remarks below.

First I’ll say that I spent election night in the Laesch for Congress office.  That was Tuesday.  John spoke to his supporters that night and, in response to a question from a reporter as to whether he would concede the special primary said that he would.  I recall that no one, not the AP, not the Trib, not a single Chicago TV station, was willing to call the regular primary that night – nor have they yet that I can discover – with so close a margin and no idea what military, absentee, and provisional ballots might be outstanding.  John certainly did not concede that race, and spoke about the need to look at those details the next day.  

My interpretation of this was that Laesch was conceding the special primary and not conceding the general primary – an interpretation that the media present then seems to share.  But I discovered the next day that, in an experience uncommon for me, as I have worked for the campaign in the past and have personal friends on staff – and in fact count John and Jen as personal friends by this point – that the lid, as they say, was on.  I couldn’t get another word out of anyone.  They maintained with me that there simply wasn’t anything going on beyond counting every vote, and until that was done, no decisions could be made.  I also needed to look no further than out my window to realize that several of the county clerk’s offices were closed, because of the rampaging blizzard going on, so there was no way anything like a normal canvass could proceed.

Heh.  So I went to the press conference.  

Al Nowakowski, a member of the campaign’s communications team, took the mike first and surprised at least me by introducing of all people Ben Mullenbach.  While some of you would readily recognize his DKos uid if I threw it out, I won’t.  Suffice it to say Ben spoke so eloquently and movingly of the simple fact that he was John Laesch’s very first volunteer, going up to him and pledging him his help after the very first political speech John ever made, and while Ben was still a sophomore in high school that I was amazed and suspect more Kossacks than I would be hoping Ben runs for office one day if they had heard it.  

I know Ben from way back in the ’06 campaign, and while I always knew he was always there doing a myriad of tasks, I was amazed because he goes diligently and rather seriously about whatever work is underway and this is a side of him that was new to me.  He spoke, without reference to notes or prepared text that I could see, about why John had so moved him to volunteer and it was so apparent he spoke for many of us, and moved all of us, who had, at various points in the last cycle or this, followed him in dedicating our support to John.  The campaign has not posted the audio of Ben, as I am writing this, but I feel they should.  I hope they do.  At the end of Ben’s remarks he introduced State Senator Mike Noland.

Senator Noland’s first remark was to ask how he could possibly follow that!  Senator Noland, himself pretty widely known throughout our area as a true grassroots candidate, compared John to, as he termed it, another Illinois politician, Obama, in that they have an uncommon ability to connect with the voters, which pretty much sent the crowd into a really wild round of applause.  Noland said something to the effect that one of the things he admired about John was that he was a fighter and would not give up easily.  I wish they had posted this on the campaign’s website as well, because I am struggling to recall all of Noland’s inspiring remarks, but suffice it to say that I approached him after the event to tell him I do not live in his district, but envy those who do.  Let’s just hope a video goes up on YouTube soon – there were a lot of cameras in the room.  In the meantime, I’ll just add that Noland introduced John, and offer the full text of John’s remarks below, and a link to the audio on the campaign website.

To the best of my recollection, John meticulously followed the text of these remarks.  I noted it strongly at the time, because as his media coordinator in ’06, I am well aware of the possibility probability inevitability that John will set aside his remarks and begin to speak extemporaneously.  Thankfully, he does that remarkably well, so I soon got over the near heart-attack it caused me the first few times he did so, but I could not fail to note that he was being uncharacteristically careful to stick to his prepared text.

“Let me begin by congratulating Bill Foster in his special election win.

We will be cheering him on in the special election.

This is what we know with respect to the regular primary election that was held on February 5th.

Currently, we know that there is a difference of 355 votes out of 75,000 votes cast in a historic Democratic turnout for this district. This is less than 1 vote per precinct.

Yesterday, February 7th was the first day when election officials could begin to count provisional ballots. As of today, there are a significant number of provisional and absentee ballots that remain uncounted.

We have been in close contact with officials in the 9 jurisdictions throughout the 14th Congressional District. And I would like to express my appreciation to all of the election judges who had to deal with the challenges that came with three elections in a very short period of time. It has been challenging for many of them and we are grateful for their continued effort to help us resolve some of the unknowns as we await the process.

By Illinois Statute, provisional and absentee ballots must be counted by February 19th. The regular primary must be certified by March 7th.

While we are awaiting the official election results, we remain committed to the Democratic process.

The next question I would like to answer is what is next for John Laesch?

I became involved in electoral politics because I disagreed with 2003 pre-emptive war policy and invasion of Iraq. I chose to run for United States Congress in 2005 after my brother received his orders to go to Baghdad. I have stated consistently that I will remain involved in electoral politics until every single U.S. soldier is safely home from Iraq.

My younger brother, Sgt. Pete Laesch voted with an absentee ballot on February 5th.

As of today, my brother’s vote has not been counted.

We have no choice but to await the final results of the February 5th Primary Election.”

I saw Dem County Chairs and PCPs there, and I saw volunteers I recognized and supporters I did not.  There were residents as from as far away as the farthest western edge of IL-14, almost at the Iowa Border, there were labor leaders, and Latino leaders, and Dem movers and shakers of virtually every category you could imagine.  They were obviously and sincerely enthusiastic in their support for this speech.  At one point, the crowd of supporters even broke out in a chant of “every vote counts.”

John’s answers in the Q&A also struck me as very concise and controlled for John – there was not a quip to be heard and there was no back and forth chit-chat involved.

The inevitable question came up as to whether John would ask his supporters to work for his recent opponent in the special election.  Laesch answered that every Democrat should support the Democrat on the ballot, then added: “I am a Democrat” which drew another round of applause.

After the speech, people just didn’t want to seem to leave.  I stepped out front onto the sidewalk of busy Downer Street in Aurora with a friend, so we could try to hear each other talk.  As we were talking a pickup stopped in the street, stalling traffic, and the driver leaned out the window and shouted “What did he decide?  What did he decide?” and I said “To wait for the votes to be counted.”

“Good,” he shouted, and looking over his shoulder at the backed-up traffic yelled “I gotta go” and drove on.  

cross-posted to Fireside14, PrairieStateBlue, OpenLeft, MyDD and DailyKos

There is no such thing as the Texas Primary, Part I

(Cross posted at Election Inspection)

Over the next month or so, you will hear many people talk about the “Texas Primary,” to be held on March 4. I am here to let you in on a little secret – there is no such thing as the Texas Primary.

On the night of March 4, CNN and MSNBC will announce to the world that either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton has won the Texas Primary, on the basis of the statewide popular vote.

What There Isn’t

There is no Statewide primary. Absolutely no delegates will be awarded on the basis of the statewide vote. That is 0 delegates. None.

Barack Obama could “win Texas” by 10%, by racking up large margins in Dallas, Houston, and Austin, by maintaining his strong margins among African American voters, and by holding Clinton to the ~20% victories among Hispanics that she won in New Mexico and Arizona, as opposed to the ~33% victory she won among Hispanics in California.

Hillary Clinton could also “win Texas” by 10%, by taking California sized support among Hispanics, by limiting Obama’s margins in Texas’ multiple large cities, and with the help of rural and small town voters in East and West Texas.

What There Is

On March 4, 32 seperate elections will be held in Texas. There will be:

  • 1) 31 State Senate District Primaries
  • 2) The Texas Caucuses

31 State Senate District Primaries

txsendistricts.gif

Collectively, 126 delegates will be allocated in 31 seperate primary elections in every one of Texas’ 31 State Senate Districts. The vast majority of these Districts (24 districts) have only 3 or 4 delegates, and with fewer exceptions than a one armed man has fingers will split 2-2 and 2-1. There is also one district in West Texas with only 2 delegates, which will surely split 1-1. There are 6 districts with 5 to 8 delegates, which are all located either in Metro Houston, in Dallas-Fort Worth, or in Austin (there are no > 4 delegate districts in San Antonio).

The number assigned to each State Senate District were allocated proportionally by each State Senate Districts’ average vote for John Kerry in 2004 and for Chris Bell (Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate) in 2006. One interesting thing about this is that when Chris Bell ran for Governor, he was running not only against Rick Perry, but also againste Carole Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman, both of whom drew strong independent support. As a result, Bell’s votes were especially concentrated in Houston, Austin, Dallas, and to a slightly lesser extent San Antonio, where much of the traditional Democratic base lives.

The Texas Caucuses

While there is no Statewide Texas Primary, there is a Statewide Texas Caucus, which will allocate 67 delegates 42 of these (“At Large Delegates”) will ultimately come from precinct caucuses, while 25 will be PLEOs: party/elected officials. PLEOs will be pledged delegates, not superdelegates, so in practical terms they amount to the same thing. These caucuses will occur on the precinct level, and are similar to the Iowa Caucuses – except practically nobody knows that they exist.

With the exception of parts of the Rio Grande Valley, there is no Democratic Political Machine in Texas. In much of the State, there is very little Democratic Party infrastructure, and very few precinct captains. In short, whichever campaign organizes more succesfully will win the Texas caucuses. There is little existing organization that the campaigns can tap into, which means that organization will have to come from the campaigns and from the grassroots. This is why the Obama campaign has already announced that it will open 10 field offices in Texas, and why the Clinton campaign will surely do likewise. Grassroots Obama activists currently have 78 events scheduled within 100 mile radii of Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston, while grassroots Hillary activists only have 5 events scheduled in the same geographical space. Grassroots Obama activists independent of the campaign also have opened offices on their own in Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio.

The Texas Caucuses will operate on 3 levels:

  • 1) Precinct Caucuses
  •    

  • 2) State Senate District/County Caucuses
  •    

  • 3) State Convention Caucus

1) Precinct Caucuses will be held in every precinct in Texas at 7:15 after the polls close. If the caucuses were held today, I imagine that in the vast majority of precincts literally nobody would show up, because nobody knows about them. For every 15 votes that Chris Bell received in a given precinct, that precinct is entitled to send 1 delegate to the State Senate District/County Caucuses.

2) At the State Senate District/County Caucuses (March 29th), one delegate will be elected to the State Convention Caucus for every 12 precinct delegates. My understanding after reading the rules is that this is a strict cutoff without rounding, which means that a precinct with 12 precinct delegates (180-194 Chris Bell voters) will send the same number of delegates to the State convention as a precinct with 23 precinct delegates (345-359 Chris Bell voters) – both send 1 delegate, while a precinct with 361 Chris Bell voters would send 2 delegates to the State Convention. Precincts with fewer than 12 precinct delegates will be combined.

3) At the Texas State Convention (June 6th & 7th in Austin), Texas’ delegates to the National Democratic Convention will finally be assigned. 67 Delegates will be awarded proportionally among the caucus delegates that came from all the State Senate District/County Caucuses. So supposing that Obama gets 2/3 of those State Senate District/County Caucus Delegates, he would end up with 2/3 of the “At Large Delegates” and 2/3 of the PLEO delegates. That would mean that Obama would get 28 of 42 At Large Delegates, and Obama would get 17 of the 25 PLEO Delegates. In sum, that scenario would result in 45 Caucus-derived delegates for Obama, and 18 Caucus-derived delegates for Clinton.

I will post detailed projections of how the pledged delegates assigned by all of the 31 Senatorial Districts will likely end up being allocated tomorrow.

If you enjoyed this post and are an Obama supporter (or even if you are not! 😀 ), please consider sending Obama a donation to help Turn Texas Bluebama!

See also:

Next Democrat to retire?

The markers that identify a likely retirement are a bit hazy and sometimes they move quickly.  A likely retiree may be a bit up in years, in bad health, not fund raising, facing a difficult race, facing opposition within his own party.  He or she may even be facing legal troubles. Among the likely contenders are Bill Jefferson, Vic Snyder, Leonard Boswell.  Age and seniority alone might make John Dingell a possibility but I think that he will have to die in office or be seriously disabled.

Jefferson comes from a safe district but he has been indicted and has just $29,000 cash on hand.  Considering his possible legal bills that is frightening (see Don Young for instruction).  It is likely that post Katrina, the Republicans will try to conbine Jefferson’s LA-2 and Melancon’s LA-3.  This could be the time for an ambitious and less tarnished NOLA pol to push Jefferson out.

Boswell is sitting pretty with over $700,000 cash on hand.  Still, he’s 67 and has experienced bad health.  I saw a tape of him in 2006 and he looked grandfatherly and sluggish.  Boswell is facing energetic progressive legislator Ed Fallon in a primary.  Fallon carried the Des Moines based district when he ran for Governor.  Unlike in 2006, Boswell is not facing a top tier Republican challenger like Jeff Lamberti.

Vic Snyder pulled a miracle, again.  For the third straight quarter, Snyder has failed to raise even a nickel.  Zip, zero, nada.  He’s got a comfortable seat representing Little Rock.  Snyder can self fund a bit.  The man is both a physician and a lawyer.  He has no opponent and got nearly 60% of the vote vs. Andy Mayberry in 2006.  

Al Wynn is being out fund raised by Donna Edwards.  He certainly has friends in the telecom business.  I figure Wynn to go down fighting but Maryland’s primary is on February 12.  One spin of the dice and the precarious Mr. Wynn could be retired within the week.

Dennis Kucinich is being out raised, too.  He’s got several opponents and Cimperman is well funded and feisty.  Dennis is facing a March 3 primary.  Retire into the sunset like Tancredo or Duncan Hunter?  Nah.  Be defeated?  Possible.

Yvette Clark is young, a freshman.  Still she doesn’t have a ton of cash and suffered from bad health earlier in the session.  The seat was highly competitive when open, but just among Democrats.  Clark is a maverick who was early pushing impeachment.  New York’s primary is not until September.

OR-05: Darlene Hooley to Retire

Uh oh; we finally have a Democratic open seat for 2008 that isn’t an automatic hold. The Oregonian (via Blue Oregon) reports that Darlene Hooley is retiring in OR-05.

She says:

Hooley, 68, who spent time in the hospital in November, said health was not a reason for her decision not to seek a seventh term. “I’ve never felt better,” she said in an interview.

Instead, she said it was the cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service that converged into a decision.

“At some point in everybody’s life you have to decide, how much longer do I want to do this?” she said.

“It’s time to move on.”

OR-05 is a D+1 district. Hooley has represented it since 1996 (when she beat Jim Bunn, one of the more aberrant members of the Class of 94). She’s a New Dem, and somewhat to the right of the Dem caucus’s midpoint with a Progressive Punch score in the low 80s.

This district has a Democratic tradition, but it currently has a 5,000 registered voter edge for the GOP. The district is a mix of Portland burbs (the more affluent ones lean GOP, the more middle-class ones lean Dem), exurbs (very GOP), Salem (lean Dem), part of Corvallis (very Dem), and rural farm areas (very GOP). It has a rapidly growing Latino population, but they probably aren’t voting much yet. (It’s currently 81% white, 13% Latino. It’s Oregon’s 2nd most affluent district, although that’s certainly skewed upwards by burbs like Lake Oswego and West Linn.)

Mike Erickson, who ran in 2006, is running again on the GOP side. He held her to about 55-45 in 2006 and can self-finance, so he has the potential to make this a very competitive race.

PolitickerOR speculates that her chief of staff, Joan Mooney Evans, will leap into the race. Another possibility they mention is new House Majority Leader Dave Hunt. A name that also occurred to me is Jim Hill, who used to represent Salem in the state senate, then was state treasurer, and most recently primaried governor Ted Kulongoski from the left in the 2006 election.

Bottom line: this will be the Dems’ most difficult open seat to hold, although that’s mostly by virtue of their other open seats being pretty easy. Erickson has an advantage in running a second time, but he’ll be going uphill against another blue tide, and the Dems have a decent bench to pick from here.

Help Obama or Clinton by Expanding Our Congressional Majority

A lot of the oxygen in the room is being sucked up by the Presidential campaign right now. I know there has been a lot of passion for that race, and understandably so. However, there are many more elections this year that Democrats need to be focused on. In both chambers of Congress, we have threadbare majorities. Even if we win the White House in the Fall, we still face gridlock without an expansion of our Congressional Majorities in the Congress.

Just imagine too, as depressing as it is that John McCain lucks up and wins in the fall. We will need a Congress that can hold him, and the irresponsible Republican Congressional delegation in check. Either way you look at it, no matter who wins the White House, we simply MUST expand our majorities in the Congress.

What good will it do Obama or Clinton if they are elected and we still have spineless Democrats in the House and Senate who won’t fight for us or them, and team up with the Repugs to defeat Progressive change? What happens if the Republicans are allowed the numbers to mount a filibuster in the Senate against our new agenda? In two words, NOTHING GOOD!!

We simply MUST expand our majorities in both houses of Congress. Not doing so spells a certain disaster for our party, and our President if we manage to elect a Democrat. We need Democrats all over this country elected who not only talk about change, but fight for it.

So what can we do? With hundreds of millions of dollars flying around the Presidential race, we simply must invest some of that money in our Congressional candidates around the country that seek to expand our majority. Furthermore, we need to invest in those candidates who believe in the ideals of our party and have the backbone to fight for them.

With that in mind, I would like to tell you about Heather Ryan, an awesome Democrat that is running in Kentucky’s First Congressional District to defeat one of the worst Congressman in the land, Exxon Ed Whitfield. Whitfield is a Mitch McConnell clone that doesn’t even own a house in our district. His basis for holding our Congressional seat is his parent’s house in Hopkinsville, and an empty lot in Madisonville. He is highly invested in oil stocks, and other big business stocks and votes in the interest of his bottom line, not the voters of Kentucky’s First District. Hence, we have nick-named him Exxon Eddie!!

This time around, we plan on sending Exxon Eddie back to Florida, or wherever it is that he really lives. We are determined to not only send him packing, but to elect a “Fighting Democrat” with a backbone who will stand for the voters of our district and for the principles our party was founded on.

Enter Heather Ryan. A mother, Navy veteran of the Gulf War, and proud Democrat. Here she is, in her own words telling why she is in this race:

I was propelled into this race when I became the victim of

a corrupt politician.  

It was after my experience that I realized that the Republican Representation Kentucky has in Washington, D.C. is part of the “Culture of Corruption” from which our communities are currently reeling.  

Ed Whitfield, KY-01’s current representative, is no exception.  He consistently votes for his own financial interests, has only introduced one piece of legislation in 13 years as Representative

(a ban on eating horse meat) and opposed SCHIP legislation which would have increased health care benefits for poor children!

I refuse to allow a powerful few to bully me and the First Congressional District.  We need someone who is not afraid to stand up for the rights of their constituents – not another puppet of the rich and power hungry.

I will be a TRUE Representative for the people of Kentucky’s First District!  Not a No-Show like “Exxon Eddie Whitfield”

As you can see, like many citizens of Western Kentucky, Mrs. Ryan is sick and fed up with the arrogance and elitism offered up by McConnell and Whitfield. She wants to fight against more than eating horse meat, (yuck), she wants to fight for Kentuckians. While I am sure that horses in Kentucky are breathing easier, the citizens aren’t.

Heather Ryan is determined to fight for our new President, and a Democratic agenda in the Congress. Lets look at a couple of her priorities on her website which is still under construction:

It is an absolute travesty that 50 million Americans struggle without health care in the wealthiest nation in the world.  What’s worse is when our representative votes against improvements in access to health services for children and the poor.  Unfortunately, these are

both realities that we’ve experienced under the current leadership.  I propose that health care for every American is more important than tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.  

It is time we had a representative who thinks about more than just how much money he can make when he helps pass legislation that benefits drug and insurance companies.  As the leaders of the free world, it is an embarrassment that we are the only industrialized nation that does not offer health care for our citizens.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

It sounds like Mrs. Ryan is right on par with what we need for our citizens to recieve healthcare. Former Edwards supporters, I think this shows that she supports the healthcare initiative that would help create One America. Won’t you help us in this venture?

Another telling statement can be found on Heather’s site that shows she will fight the Corporate control of our government also:

The Budget Reconciliation Bill, signed by President Bush and passed by Congress, cut future spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Student Loans and even free and reduced lunches for poor children; all while giving a $2.3 Billion tax break to Oil Companies and affording a $5.7 billion slush fund to Pharmaceutical Companies (both of which Representative Ed Whitfield has personal financial investments and large campaign contributions).  Corporate welfare for profitable companies who donate heavily to Congressmen is corrupt and scandalous.  I will

work diligently against the culture of corruption which permeates the political system.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Heather is dedicated to Government Reform which doesn’t allow Congressmen such as Exxon Eddie to rake in millions of dollars from special interests and then shamelessly vote for them over the interests of the citizens of the First District of Kentucky. She shares our outrage at a system that is tilted toward the rich and powerful and away from us.

In case you might have missed it, here is Heather’s announcement to run for the Congressional seat in Kentucky’s First District:

So, how can you help? Well, first you can go to our site and check out Heather Ryan and her stances. The site is still under construction, but Heather wanted to get her views on some important issues up as soon as possible. Second, got to her site and scroll to the bottom and sign up to recieve updates on our campaign here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Finally, unfortunately money is the one thing that no campaign can get started or survive without. Kentucky is one of the poorest states in the union, and the First is one of the poorest Congressional Districts. Unfortunately, the people who really need Heather Ryan and support her have very little money to give. They are scratching and clawing in the second America John Edwards talked so eloquently about in this election. We need the help of national Democrats!!

Now keep in mind that Heather is the only Democrat to file by the deadline for this race, and will not face a primary. By supporting her you are not only helping fellow grassroots Democrats in Kentucky’s First, but you are supporting a “Fighting Democrat” with a backbone that WILL BE running to unseat a sitting Republican in the fall. You are not only supporting Heather, you are supporting the expansion of our Democratic majorities for whatever President takes over next year!! Please go here and make an investment in our party, and our Congress here:

http://actblue.com/page/ryanfo…

No amount is too small, and anything you send will be put to work immediately towards the expansion of our Congressional Majority. I know it is easy to get caught up in the Presidential, many of you remember me as an ardent Edwards supporter and blogger, but we can’t afford to ignore our great Congressional and Senate candidates who are seeking to infuse this party with something it desperately needs, A BACKBONE!!! Heather Ryan is such a Democrat and we desperately need your help!!! Please show us some love!!!  

Congressional races: Wrapup

I’ve now covered all 50 states in my congressional races by state series.

Whew!

But how about a summary?

 I hear you ask (I hear things….)

Well, I am glad you  asked!  It’s below the fold

For details, go to the relevant diary.



State                Safe Dem    Vul Dem    Vul Rep    Safe Rep    Filing deadline  

Northeast          53         15          11         10

 New England         18          3           1          0

      Connecticut         3           1           1          0           5/3/08

      Maine               1           1           0          0           3/15/08

      Massachusetts      10           0           0          0           6/3/98

      New Hampshire       1           1           0          0           6/13/08

      Rhode Island        2           0           0          0           6/25/08

      Vermont             1           0           0          0           7/21/08

  MidAtlantic         35          6           10         10  

      New Jersey          7         0           3          3           4/7/08

      New York           19           4           1          5           7/18/08

      Pennsylvania        9           2           6          2           2/12/08

Midwest           40          8          19         32

 East North Central 29          4          14        22

      Illinois             8          2           5          4           closed

      Indiana              5          0           2          2           2/22/08

      Michigan             6          0           3          6           5/13/08

      Ohio                 6          1           4          7           closed

      Wisconsin            4          1           0          3           7/8/08

 West North Central  12          4         5           10  

      Iowa                  2         1            2          0          3/14/08

      Kansas                1         1            0          2          6/10/08

      Minnessota            4         1            3          0          7/15/08

      Missouri              4         0            0          5    \     3/25/08

      Nebraska              0         0            0          3          3/3/08

      North Dakota          0         1            0          0          4/11/08

      South Dakota          1         0            0          0          3/25/08

South              57          8          14         75

 South Atlantic      30          5           9            36

      Delaware              0         0            1           0         7/25/08

      Florida               8         1            5          11         5/2/08

      Georgia               4         2            0           7         5/2/08

      Maryland              5         1            0           2         closed

      North Carolina        6         1            1           5         2/29/08

      South Carolina        2         0            0           4         3/31/08

      Virginia              3         0            1           7         4/11/08

      West Virginia         2         0            1           0         closed

 East South Central   10         1            2          13  

      Alabama               2         0            1           4          4/4/08

      Kentucky              1         1            1           3          closed

      Mississippi           2         0            0           2          closed

      Tennessee             5         0            0           4          4/3/08

 West South Central   17         2            3          26  

      Arkansas              3         0            0           1          3/10/08

      Louisiana             2         0            2           3          7/11/08

      Oklahoma              1         0            0           4          6/4/08

      Texas                11         2            1          18          closed

West                52         5            14         27

 Mountain              9         2             7         10  

      Arizona             2         2             3            1          6/4/08

      Colorado            4         0             1            2          5/28/08

      Idaho               0         0             0            2          3/21/08

      Montana             0         0             0            1          3/20/08

      Nevada              1         0             1            1          5/16/08

      New Mexico          1         0             2            0          2/12/08

      Utah                1         0             0            2          3/17/08

      Wyoming             0         0             1            0          5/30/08

 Pacific            43         3             7           17  

      Alaska              0         0             1            0          6/2/08

      California         32         2             5           14          3/7/08

      Hawaii              2         0             0            0          7/22/08

      Oregon              3         1             0            1          3/11/08

      Washington          6         0             1            2          6/6/08

Grand Total         185            18          58            144  

Some thoughts: I’ve listed as ‘vulnerable’ some races that aren’t that vulnerable  – safe seats are probably very safe

If each party loses 1% of safe seats and 20% of vul seats, then we lose 2+4=6 and gain 12 + 1 = 13 for a pickup of 7 seats; but that’s without any waves or momentum or anything.  

You can find all the previous entries here: list of diaries

MS-Sen-B: State Supreme Courts Rules for Barbour

Despite the state Attorney General going to bat for common sense and an early victory in district court, the Mississippi Supreme Court has sided with Gov. Haley Barbour's interpretation of state law. Democrats had hoped to have a special election in March to fill Trent Lott's seat, but the Court has ruled the election must take place in November, which is expected to provide the GOP nominee with substantial presidential coattails. Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, the leading Democratic candidate for the seat, released this statement:

While it is disappointing that Governor Barbour seeks to anoint the next United States Senator from Mississippi instead of letting the people of this great state vote as quickly as possible in a currently scheduled March election and in accordance with state law, the Mississippi Supreme Court's decision today does not change the direction of Ronnie Musgrove's campaign for the United States Senate.

The bad news today is not that we now have a longer campaign to run, but that Mississippi will be stuck for another nine months with the same type of Washington nonsense from Roger Wicker. People are fed up with outrageous earmarks like bridges to nowhere and teapot museums that do nothing for Mississippi's middle class.

Update: The DSCC has launched a site targeting Barbour’s appointment to the seat, Roger Wicker. And always the penny-pincher when not dealing with taxpayer dollars, Wicker didn’t buy the .org and .net domains for his campaign site, so you can probably guess where those lead now.

Mississippi Senate Special Election

By a vote of 7-2, the Mississippi Supreme Court sided with Republican Governor Haley Barbour by ruling that the special election for the Senate seat currently held by Roger Wicker should be held in November 2008.  This is great news for Senator Wicker and Governor Barbour.  

It’s unfortunate that we lost this battle, but we still have a strong candidate in Governor Musgrove.  Musgrove now has 9 months to make his case across Mississippi.  He’s done it before, and he’ll do it again.

Joe Garcia to Announce Run for Congress Tomorrow

Several months ago, the effort began to Draft Joe Garcia http://draftgarcia.com/ into the 25th district Congressional race. Today we have success. The news has just come in that Joe Garcia, Chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and NDP Hispanic outreach chair, will be announcing his candidacy for Congress tomorrow in the 25th district of Florida.

This district and getting Joe Garcia in the race has been a major focus for the netroots and progressive community in Florida. The district is part of the South Florida corridor of largely Cuban-American populated districts that have been controlled by Republicans in Congress for years. This year all three districts will be challenged with strong candidates of our own. The 25th district particularly enticing since it has a PVI of R+4 only, and the district's Republican registration has been rapidly declining http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/13/105055/065/411/370804 since 2004. This is an area that is turning blue and now with a strong candidate we can win this race.

Being able to win this race is not the only good news though. The netroots is going to admire Joe very much. Back in November, Garcia was interviewed http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fpc/blog/2007/11/21/The-Daily-30 by Kenneth Quinnell of the Florida Progressive Coalition. In the interview, he called the netroots “The courage of the Democratic Party.” He added:

Part of what has to happen, the netroots has to be play a bigger role so the Democrats find their courage again. We’ve lost courage in the biggest issues of the day. We tend to be scared off by Iraq, rather than truely supporting our troops by bringing them home. We talk about campaign finance reform and are scared about the costs, rather than fixing the political system that is paid for by special interests, fixed for special intersts and run by special interests.

There was also this ad.

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Matt Stoller http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2683 of Open Left thinks Joe Garcia, as well as Darcy Burner of Washington, could be a future leader in Congress and a good one for Progressives.

The second candidate is Joe Garcia, who isn't a candidate yet but is more a reluctant draftee.  He's a Cuban-American that might break the Republican stranglehold on this very important consituency group in Florida.  I grew up in Miami with lots of Cuban-American friends, and while I wasn't political as a kid, I did notice that the pressure that Cuban-American right-wingers bring to bear on progressives within their own community is incredibly harsh.  I applaud NDNer and progressive Joe Garcia for standing up against the Cuban Republican nonsense, particularly in this ad in 2004, when it wasn't easy to do.  Now there's a Draft Garcia effort to bring him into the race in FL-25.  Joe showed courage by breaking with orthodoxy in his community and asking for a different type of Cuban politics.

I hope Joe gets in, and you can sign the petition at DraftGarcia.

Both of these people have track records of courage and originality, and I'll be watching them as possible progressive power builders.

I expect Joe Garcia very well to be a progressive leader for the next generation of Democrats in Congress. He's one of the “more and better Democrats” we often talk about, so that's why this race will be so important.

The district offers us a good chance of success. No longer http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/13/105055/065/411/370804 is Cuba the hot issue, but now Iraq and health care have taken over as major concerns. The youth has opened up to the Democratic message and past generations have become more muted on hardline restrictions like visiting family in Cuba.

With the announcement, now we have much work to do to take advantage of voter sentiment in the district. It's going to be a tough campaign against Bush ally and Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart, but it's one we certainly can win and I think we will succeed in the end. It's going to be a choice between more war in Iraq or getting out. It's going to be a choice for health care for children and every citizen at that matter or tax breaks for big tobacco. It will be a choice between following the same stance on Cuba that have done nothing but promote demagoguery in South Florida or easing some travel restrictions and saying there's a new way forward. These will be the choices and these issues all favor us. South Florida is ready for change and Joe Garcia will be that change for the progressive community.

I'm ready, are you?

Let's all send the message that we're thrilled Joe is jumping in this race.

Tomorrow Joe Garcia will be giving an announcement speech and rally. If you're in the area, come out and show your support! Here are the details:

Location: Best Western Hotel behind Barnes and Noble on Kendall Drive and 124 Avenue
Time: 10 AM

National and local media will be there for the announcement in the 25th district of Florida. Let's all go out and support Joe at the rally!

Can we send the contributions page http://www.actblue.com/page/draftgarcia skyrocketing on Act Blue to lift Joe up for an early start? $5.00 is all it takes to send the message that we want change. Note: don't donate too much on this particular page, as it's for the district and thus Joe can't get it until after the primary (in which he'll probably be the only candidate).

Visit the Draft Garcia website http://draftgarcia.com/ too!

Now more from the Miami Herald http://www.miamiherald.com/516/story/409096.html.

Garcia's expected announcement Thursday comes on the heels of former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez's decision to take on Díaz-Balart's older brother, Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart.

''This is a unique time in American history and just sitting on the sidelines and cheering isn't enough,'' said Garcia, who plans to relinquish his post as chair of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party to run for the seat. “People of good conscience have to provide leadership and that's something we're sorely lacking in South Florida and have been for a long time.''

Mario Díaz-Balart, a Republican, was elected to Congress in 2002 from the West Miami-Dade congressional district he helped create as chairman of the state House's congressional redistricting committee.

Edwards Supporters: Help Us!!!

As an Edwards supporter, I was extremely disappointed to see my candidate leave the race for the Democratic nomination. However, as many of us have stated, our fight has just begun. We are as determined as ever to keep the message of One America alive. To do this, we simply must support candidates who believe in the message of creating One America, and support Democrats who will fight with a backbone in Congress.

One such candidate is Heather Ryan, Democrat in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. Heather is running to expand our majority in the Congress by unseating Exxon Ed Whitfield. She is a proud, Fighting Democrat who served her country honorably during the Gulf War. She also supports policies to create One America. Here she is speaking on the need for Universal Healthcare:

It is an absolute travesty that 50 million Americans struggle without health care in the

wealthiest nation in the world.  What’s worse is when our representative votes against

improvements in access to health services for children and the poor.  Unfortunately, these are

both realities that we’ve experienced under the current leadership.  I propose that health

care for every American is more important than tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.  

It is time we had a representative who thinks about more than just how much money he can

make when he helps pass legislation that benefits drug and insurance companies.  As the

leaders of the free world, it is an embarrassment that we are the only industrialized nation

that does not offer health care for our citizens.

More importantly, Ryan would continue the work of making our government accountable to the people, not the Corporations:

The Budget Reconciliation Bill, signed by President Bush and passed by Congress, cut future

spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Student Loans and even free and reduced lunches for poor

children; all while giving a $2.3 Billion tax break to Oil Companies and affording a $5.7 billion

slush fund to Pharmaceutical Companies (both of which Representative Ed Whitfield has

personal financial investments and large campaign contributions).  Corporate welfare for

profitable companies who donate heavily to Congressmen is corrupt and scandalous.  I will

work diligently against the culture of corruption which permeates the political system.

Our fight for One America WILL continue. Now however, it must continue on the grassroots level by supporting Democrats running for Congress that will have a backbone and stand up for us. Heather Ryan is such a Democrat, and will continue the work we started on the grassroots level.

Will you help us by supporting Heather Ryan? We need Democrats everywhere to help us fight against the millions dollars of special interest money Exxon Eddie has amassed. Please join our campaign and sign up for email updates at the bottom of the screen here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

More importantly, please make an investment in the expansion of our Congressional majority, and the electing of Democrats with a backbone that seek to create One America here:

http://actblue.com/page/ryanfo…

We cannot forget the awesome Democrats who seek to fight for us from the ground up!!