Month: February 2008

The IL House primaries were held in conjunction with the state’s Presidential primary.  It was a very busy night with 15 contests in the regular phase plus two more to find candidates to fill the balance of Denny Hastert’s term in 2008.  Overall, it was a great night for the favorites.

Hastert’s IL-14 open seat saw the closest contest of the night.  Millionaire scientist Bill Foster scraped by winning by 323 votes in the election for the nomination for the full-term over carpenter (and 2006 candidate) John Laesch.  The final tally was Foster 31,910; Laesch 31,587; Joe Serra 5,947; and Jotham Stein 5,757.  In the “special” election Foster had more breathing room prevailing by 3,000 votes with 31,792 to Laesch’s 28,053 and 4,949 for Jotham Stein.  The hard fought Republican contest saw millionaire dairy owner Jim Oberweis finally win after losing three shots at statewide office.  Oberweis took 56% in the special to Chris Lauzen’s 44% (overall about 8,000 more votes were cast in the Republican primary for the special).  The general was not quite as close with Oberweis pulling in 56% (again), Lauzen at 41%, and Michael Dilger getting the balance.  

The battle between Bush Dog Dan Lipinski and Mark Pera in IL-3 was not as close as predicted.  Lipinski got a clear majority with 53% while beating his main opponent Pera by 2-1 (Pera had 26%).  Jim Capparelli (12%) and Jerry Bennett (9%) rounded out the field.  Even the Chicago Tribune called Lipinski a Democrat in name only in its coverage.  Grr.

Elsewhere in the state, Bobby Rush wallopped William Walls in IL-1 taking 88% of the vote.  Michael Hawkins won the Republican nod to face Lipinski in IL-3 with 67% of the vote.  Democrats in the district cast 105,000 votes to 18,000 on the Republican side.  “GI Jill” Morgenthaler won with an impressive 79% in IL-6 for the right to take on Peter Roskam in the fall.  This has been regarded as a throw away unlike the race last cycle when its an empty seat.  We’ll find out.  Incumbents Danny Davis (91% in IL-70), Melissa Bean (83% in IL-8) and Jan Schakowsky (88% in IL-9) sailed to easy renomination on the Democratic side.  Bean will face Steve Greenberg (57% in the GOP primary) in the fall.

Further results give easy renomination to Judy Biggert in IL-13 (77%).  Timothy Balderman took the Republican nomination in the 11th CD with 67% in a three way race.  In IL-18, 26 year old state senator and gaffe machine Aaron Schock cruised to an easy win with 71% of the Republican vote.  Democrats will name his opponent as Dick Versace withdrew after qualifying.  Daniel Davis won the Democratic nod in IL-19 with a solid 60-40 victory over Joe McMenamin.  He’ll take on Shimkus in the fall.

Schock is an immatre 26.  Maybe we have a chance there.  If not he could become a perennial target or the next incarnation of Patrick McHenry.

I attended the meet and greet in Shepherdstown Friday evening for West Virginia’s new Democratic candidate for WV-02 Anne Barth. About 200 people packed the event, a great turnout for an event on such short notice and on a day when the weather involved a freezing rain.

The room was packed, but I saw many familiar faces from Democratic and progressive groups from across the Eastern Panhandle. Some of my favorite people from the Kerry-Edwards campaign in ’04 are among her staunchest supporters and think highly of her.

I got a great first impression from her. She’s just six days into this race and she’s got a solid stump speech. What I really liked about her speech is how she weaved her personal background in smoothly to show how it shaped her career in public service. But what I liked most about her stump speech is she goes straight at Capito – politely, almost quietly, yet landing the lines that drew sharp distinctions between herself and her Republican opponent. Capito is a backbencher who has supported Bush’s agenda against the interests of West Virginians and Capito has worked against the rest of the West Virginia delegation in Congress. Barth did a great job of pointing that out in her speech and those lines drew the most enthusiastic response.

I spent most of my time speaking to Berkeley County Democrats about county issues. We’ve also got some great candidates running in Jefferson County and (note to self) I’ve got to write up a post about them.

I did not get a chance to go over a checklist of issues with Barth. While her campaign has hit the ground running, it is just six days into it. As eager as I am to find out where she stands on a wide variety of issues, some patience is required. As soon as her web site is up, either I or someone here will link to it.

But from what I saw, there’s a lot to like in Barth as a candidate. She was poised, she was personable and there’s a solid network of supporters for her in the Eastern Panhandle. This is where the battle for WV-02 is going to be decided because this is, unfortunately, Capito’s base. To defeat Capito, and Clem and I have said this all along, a successful candidate can’t just rely on voter turnout in the more Democratic counties and ignore the Eastern Panhandle. That’s not worked in the previous campaigns. A successful candidate has got to peel away voters from Capito here by going after her here.

Barth assured the party loyalists that she’ll be in the Eastern Panhandle a lot. She has good friends to stay with in the Eastern Panhandle who can build the kind of friend-to-friend GOTV that is much more effective than traditional stranger-to-stranger canvassing and phonebanking.

This region is Capito’s strongest point and Clem and I are just stealing a play from Karl Rove’s playbook when we say the best way to beat her is to attack her where she’s strongest. Barth came across as a candidate who’ll take the fight to Capito while keeping a charming, winning smile on her face the entire time. That’s going to make Barth a formidable ball carrier* now that the football has been handed off to her.

…

* Since I’m breaking out the football metaphors anyway, I’ll repeat a story I’ve told before because I think it fits.

Make no mistake, it’s an uphill fight against an opponent that has campaign coffers filled from the corporations and rightwing conservatives she’s supported in Congress. In terms of size, Capito is a much bigger opponent.

Long ago in a land far away, I played on football team for a small high school where our biggest lineman weighed just over 200 pounds and our opponents came from much larger schools with much, much bigger players.

And every Friday night, our head coach gathered us together before our games and said:

“Boys, it’s not the size of the dogs in the fight that matters, it’s the size of the fight in the dogs.”

My senior year we went 9-1 and won the league championship. Our only loss was to Oak Hill, which won because of extremely questionable officiating on their home field (not that I hold a grudge two decades later — the bastards.)

The other teams may have been taller and outweighed us, but nobody, not even Oak Hill, ever out hit us.

I got the sense tonight that Capito might out spend Barth, might pull out every dirty Republican trick in the book to try to stop her, but there’s no way she’s going to out play Barth, who after 21 years on Senator Robert C. Byrd’s staff knows the ins and outs of West Virginia politics. There’s a lot of desire to win in Barth and desire and heart can take you a long way.

The 2006 midterm elections took a big bite out of Northeast Republicans.  They went from contributing 35 seats to the majority party to providing just 24 seats to the minority.  Many survived by the skin of their teeth and others were not targeted in districts with a Democratic lean or a small Republican lean.  So how have the suruvivors fared?  I have compared the most recent fund raising report with the year end totals from 2005 (the same spot in the 2006 cycle).  Both a dummary report and a more detailed explaination follow.

The 24 Republicans as a group have 22.6% less cash on hand than 2 years ago ($12,702,583 vs. $16,403,287).  The average GOP member from this group has a balance of $529,274 compared to $683,470 two years ago.  Four members from this group have announced their retirement.  Two of those four have a slightly higher balance but two have much lower balances.  In addition, Tom Reynolds had a balance of $2.3 million as head of the NRCC;  he’s at $862 K now.  Still, the numbers are lower, even after adjustments.

Individual results follow below the fold:

CT  Chris Shays, CT 4

Shays is the only one of 3 CT Republicans to survive the last election.  In fact, the moderate congressman from the NYC suburbs is the last Republican House member from New England.  Shays has run a bunch of expensive and exhausting but ultimately successful re-electioin campaigns.  This time around, he’s facing Jim Himes and his fund raising is lagging.  At $797,413, Shays is down $95,000 from two years ago.  Of course, Joe Lieberman will not be campaigning for him either.

NY  Peter King, NY-3

Last cycle, Democrats hoped to entice a name opponent to take on King but failed.  Dave Mejias still managed to take a big bite out of King’s sizeable stash of cash.  Two years ago, King was a committee chairman and a “millionaire” (cash on hand of $1,058,043).  Now the chair is gone and cash is down more than 40% to $604,240.  Peter King is considerably weakened.

NY  Vito Fossella, NY-13

Fossella has come back from the dead, raising $304,000 to bring his cash up from $50,000 to $250,000 in the last quarter of 2007.  That said, Fossella is greatly weaker than two years ago.  Then, he had $572,952; now it’s $250,501.  A good candidate can take him out.  A medium candidate might but would probably drain him to the breaking point.  

NY  John McHugh,  NY-23

McHugh has been rumored to be a possible retiree.  Maybe one reason is his fund raising.  The veteran incumbent has uist $203,402 a drop of nearly 50% from two years ago.  Hmm.

NY  James Walsh,  NY-25

Walsh had a very tight battle against Dan Maffei in 2006 and this looked like a re-match.  Except that Walsh decided to retire.  Walsh had managed to keep pace with last cycle ($511,611 to $508,704 in 2005).  Maffei will have a huge edge over any fill-in.

NY  Tom Reynolds, NY-26

Reynolds was head of the NRCC last cycle and actually did a good job in a thankless assignment.  Compare his results to Liddy Dole (dollars, won-lost).  Reynolds managed to save more seats than were lost. Dole lost everything but Kentucky and had to get massive help from the RNC.  Still, Reynolds was raising national bucks two years ago and is not, now.  That means that Jon Powers may have a good shot in what was a 52-48 district last cycle.  $862,809 vs. $2,351,883 in 2006.

NY  Randy Kuhl, NY-29

Kuhl is a two termer who is struggling in a decent district for NYS Republicans.  It shows in the fund-raising.  Kuhl has $326,513 vs. $389,128 in 2005.  Shot gun Randy is vulnerable to Eric Massa.  Rumor had Randy expecting to lose his last general election.  Maybe this is the time.

NJ  Frank LoBiondo,  NJ-2

The district leans Democratic but LoBiondo had the support of local labor unions against a weak local Democrat.  That may not be the case as Jeff Van Drew, a “hot” state senator, is considering a run.  Lo Biondo has a nice stash ($1,391,321) but less than two years ago ($1,628,568).  It’s doable.  Too bad he wasn’t drained a bit more.

NJ  Jim Saxton,  NJ-3

Saxton is also running in a tough district.  Only he decided to hang it up.  Saxton’s treasure chest of $1,079,955 will (at best for the GOP) be spread out a bit.  That’s down from a hefty $1,434,892 but Jim was still a million dollar man.  Looking very good here as the Democrats have their preferred candidate.

NJ  Chris Smith,  NJ-4

Smith is up but still vulnerable.  He’s got a tough district and just $401,066 in the bank.  And yes, last quarter he was fund raising.  Smith was at just $225,195 last cycle.

NJ  Scott Garrett,  NJ-5

Garrett was first elected with 61% theen fell to 58% and 55% last cycle. He is way out of touch with his moderate district and would fit in with the deep south.  Any other Republican would breeze here.  Garrett?  Maybe not.  So, he has $352,001 this cycle vs. $291,452.  Last time around, reluctance to fund a challenger who had a primary badly hurt Paul Aronsohn who had to overcome Camille Abate.  This time around blind rabbi Ben Shulman also is hamstrung by the presence of Abate.  These “rules” are keeping the winger Garrett alive.  A little flexibility, guys?  (or drop out Camille).

NJ  Rodney Frelinghuysen,  NJ-11

Frelinghuysen’s family held a NJ House seat in the 1700s.  And the 1800s.  And the 1900s,  And the 2000s.  Still, in a district that mainly covers Morris County, Rodney has less cash to play with.  $551,141 vs. $751,195.  Rodney has tended to spread excess cash in $2,000 donations to candidates around the country.  This gives him far less clout than by using the NRCC but Rodney does it.  Maybe he’ll have less to spend this time.  Maybe Tom Wyka will gain a few points in a very slowly blue-ing district (i live there and it’s a long climb).

PA  Phil English,  PA-3

English represents northwest PA.  It is a district where Bush got 54% and English got 53% in 2006 against a lackluster opponent.  English has significantly bolstered his cash this time around as he tries to hold on against the tide.  He’s got $537,340 vs. $323,253 in 2005.  English is a massive guy and rumors do swirl of personal scandal. So this one is not perfectly safe.

PA  John Peterson, PA-5

Peterson is not a massive fundraiser.  He’s retired leaving a modest $117,457 in the kitty.

That’s slightly more than the 2005 sum of $114,865.

PA  Jim Gerlach,  PA-6

Gerlach is off two tight races but seems to be running out of gas.  Or cash.  Without a marquis opponent, he’s got just $500,238 vs. $1,074,827.  Are his days in the House numbered?

PA  Bill Shuster,  PA-9

Shuster is referred to as Bud Lite, because he is the son (and legacy) of ex-Congressman Bud Shuster.  The cash is low ($188,177)but more than last cycle ($138,699).  Time to give the pipsqueak a run?  (one of the great political nicknames was given to Thomas P. O’Neil III, Tip’s son: “tipsqueak”, he aged into the nose, too).

PA  Charles Dent,  PA-15

Dent nearly ran unopposed but a candidate who needed a write-in to make the ballot gave him a hard time in a Democratic lean district.  He’s certainly expecting a harder time this time around but is in the same cash situation.  COH is $535,091 vs. $542,891.  Is this the year the Lehigh Valley goes back blue (it was during the Clinton years).?

PA  Joe Potts,  PA-16

Potts has a decent stash in a friendly district but it is still down from two years ago.  It’s $175,897 vs. $283,335.  Is Joe starting to wind it down?  

PA  Tim Murphy,  PA-18

Murphy has the most cash of any Pennsylvania Republican in the House.  That’s actually a scary thing as it indicates that people like English, Gerlach, and Dent are in trouble.  For stat hounds, Murphy’s balance of $663,484 is down from the $685,083 of two years ago.  Bad news for Gerlach who was way ahead in this race two years ago.

PA  Todd Platts,  PA-19

Platts is the limbo incumbent.  How low can you go?  In Todd’s case it is an anemic $59,032, the lowest figure for any Republican incumbent in the region.  Todd has just $132,025 two years ago so this is nothing new.  he makes lists but so far no waves.

MD   Wayne Gilchrest,  MD-1

The moderate Gilchrest is anti-war and that’s enough to stir up a primary challenge.  It also got Wayne to fund raise a bit in a normally safe district ($424,364 vs. $214,862).  The money is going to the primary where a winger is given a real chance of knocking off the veteran congressman.

MD  Roscoe Bartlett,  MD-6

Bartlett is old (82 I think, and he looks it) and many thought he was headed for retirement.  Not so, as he filed for re-election.  That may come soon, though.  Bartlett has just $276,985 this time, down from $346,618.  It is a safe Republican district.

DE  Mike Castle,  DE At Large

Mike has been rumored for retirement and he’s been rumored as running for the Senate if Joe Biden retires.  The fund raising does not argue retirement.  Mike has the biggest cash on hand balance of any Republican House member in the Northeast and he’s growing it.  It was $1,212,788 and is now $1,527,167.  This is the most Democratic district in the nation represented by a Republican but in the clubby atmosphere of Delaware it “seems” safe.  Oddly, Joe Biden’s son, Beau, would seem like the most likely candidate to unseat the aging and sickly Castle.  Hint, hint.

My latest election contest is ready (cutting it close to the wire). I do this primarily by email, but thought I’d post here and open it up to others. Feel free to invite anyone who might be interested to enter, as long as they do so by about Noon PST Tuesday, Feb. 5.

INTRODUCTION

Finally, the Super Tuesday contest.  I’ll allow entries until about Noon PST Tuesday.  I’m not sure things will be any more clear in 26 hours than they are now.

There’s so much happening Tuesday that one could ask a bunch of different questions.  Please answer at least the main contest question and the tie breakers.

Some people have expressed interest in other questions, so those will follow.  They’ll be treated as separate contests and are optional.

MAIN CONTEST QUESTIONS

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AS, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, ID, KS, MN, NM, ND (also, DA begin voting) [Do not use in main question.]

AS = American Samoa

DA = Democrats Abroad

Main question — List the primary states won by each candidate, according to plurality popular vote (to make it easier to answer, “none” and “the rest” are acceptable answers):

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Scoring – 1 point per pledged delegate at stake in each state you get right.

First Tie-breaker — List the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win on Feb. 5 (1,449 pledged delegates are at stake), including:

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Second Tie- breaker — Who wins CA and by what percentage margin statewide?

REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, DA, MN, MT, ND, WV [Do not use in main question.]

Main question — List the primary states won by each candidate, according to plurality popular vote:

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Scoring – 1 point per pledged delegate at stake in each state you get right.

First Tie-breaker — List the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win on Feb. 5 (836 pledged delegates are at stake):

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Second Tie-breaker — Who wins CA and by what percentage margin statewide, over which second place candidate (e.g., “Smith over Jones by 4%”)?

SUPPLEMENTAL QUESTIONS (OPTIONAL)

1) Which candidates, if any, drop out immediately (within 48 hours) after Feb. 5?

Democratic candidates (Clinton, Obama, Gravel):

Republican candidates (Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul):

2) Aggregate percentage of the vote in the Feb. 5 primary states?

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Others:

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Others:

Some longer term questions:

4) On what date will the party’s nominee mathematically clinch the nomination (counting unpledged delegate endorsements)?

FYI REFERENCE INFO

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AS, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, ID, KS, MN, NM, ND (also, DA begin voting)

REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, DA, MN, MT, ND, WV

Primary (not caucus) election states, with the number of Dem/GOP delegates at stake, by poll closing time (PST) and number of Dem delegates at stake:

4pm – GA (87/72)

5pm – IL (153/57), NJ (107/52), MA (93/40), MO (72/58), TN (68/52), AL (52/45), CT (48/27), OK (38/38), DE (15/18)

5:30pm – AR (35/34)

6pm – NY (232/87), AZ (56/50)

7pm – UT (23/36)

8pm – CA (370/170)

If the delegates don’t match what you see in the media, that’s because they often just list the total number delegates per state.  I am excluding each state’s unpledged delegates however, as they are not chosen in these primaries and are free to support any candidate they choose at the national conventions.

LINKS

Reference:

The Green Papers: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/…

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

CNN Dems: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

CNN GOP: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

Polling sites:

Pollster: http://pollster.com/

Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ (right wing, but for these elections, their averages might be more useful than pollsters trends)

These are all states with filing deadlines in the first half of July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

WI has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

LA has 7  congressional districts. 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans

MN has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

LA-02   D+28   .04      Jefferson       No        Safe for a Democrat,

                                                 primary possible

LA-03   R+5    .35      Melancon        No        Mostly safe

MN-01   R+1    .74      Walz            Yes       Somewhat vul

MN-04   D+13   .30      McCollum        Yes       Safe

MN-05   D+21   .22      Ellison         Yes       Safe

MN-07   R+6    .80      Peterson        No        Safe

MN-08   D+4    .80      Oberstar        No        Safe

WI-02   D+13   .65      Baldwin         Yes       Safe

WI-03   D+3    .81      Kind            No        Safe

WI-04   D+20   .12      Moore           No        Safe

WI-07   D+2    .79      Obey            No        Safe

WI-08   R+4    .73      Kagen           Yes       Somewhat vul



Those held by Republicans

LA-01 R+18  .50

If you picture LA as a boot, LA-01 is the top of the toes, bordering MS, lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf of Mexico.

Jindal, first elected in 2004, won election as governor and will be retiring.

Gilda Reed is the only confirmed Democratic challenger.

LA-04 R+7 .36

LA-04 is the western edge of LA, bordering TX and AR

McCrery, first elected in 1988, has won easily in LA’s odd ‘primary only’ system, far outraising his opponents; now, he will retire

There are no confirmed challengers, but lots of interested parties.

LA-05 R+10 .39

LA-05 is the northeast part of the ‘leg’ of the boot.

Alexander, first elected in 2002, was a Democrat, but switched to the Republicans (what? he doesn’t like being in the majority?) In the 2006 runoff he won easily

No confirmed opponent

LA-06 R+7 .33

LA-06 is Baton Rouge and surrounding areas

Baker, first elected in 1986, is retiring

The only confirmed candidate (of either party!) is Don Cazayoux .

LA-07 R+7  .39

LA-07 is the southwestern part of LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Boustany, first elected in 2004, had a fairly close race then, but won easily in 2006 against an underfunded opponent

There are no confirmed opponents.

MN-02 R+3 .78

MN-02 is the area south of the twin cities

Kline, first elected in 2002, has had reasonably challenging races, never getting over 56%

The only confirmed challenger is Steve Sarvi

MN-03 R+1 .66

MN-03 is the northern and western (and some southern) suburbs of the twin cities.

Ramstad, first elected in 1990, might (or might not) be retiring.

There are a couple of confirmed challengers: Terri Bonoff and Jigar Madia

MN-06 R+5 .84

MN-06 is an odd shaped district that includes a blob in the middle of MN, and then extends east to the WI border and wraps around the twin cities

Bachmann, first elected in 2006, won 50-42 against Wetterling, even though Wetterling raised more money ($3.1 million to $2.6 million).

There are two confirmed challengers: Bob Olson and Elwyn Tinklenberg (no web site)

WI-01 R+2 .66

WI-01 is the southeastern corner of WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan

Ryan, first elected in 1998, has won easily against underfunded opponents

There are two confirmed challengers: Marge Krupp and Paulette Garin

WI-05 R+12 .76

WI-05 is in eastern WI, it wraps around Milwaukee, and borders Lake Michigan

Sensensbrenner, first elected in 1978, has won easily even when his opponents raised some funds.  He might retire,

No confirmed challengers

WI-06 R+5 .76

WI-06 is central eastern WI, bordering Lake Michigan and running west to Marquette county

Petri, first elected in 1979, has not had  a close race since 1992, and often has no opposition.

This year, his challenger is Roger Kittleson (no web site)

Summary

LA – I don’t know what’s going on in LA-06

MN – MN-03 is a definite opportunity.  MN-02 might be

WI – Kagen is vulnerable – it’s a swing district and he’s had some controversy.  

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable

crossposted from Ohio Daily Blog

Candidate	District	4Q Donations	Cash on Hand	Debts or note
Steve Driehaus	OH-01	$190,054.78	$418,662.01
Steve Black	OH-02	$64,322.00	$223,535.61	$58,320.00
Victoria Wulsin	OH-02	$113,773.32	$344,315.29
Charles Sanders	OH-03	$1,090.00	$21.14
Charlie Wilson*	OH-06	$64,905.33	$294,645.87	$191,650.00
Dave Woolever	OH-07	$1,791.48	$305.84	$12,900.00
Bill Conner	OH-07	$3,352.03	$5,780.17	$10,500.00
Marcy Kaptur*	OH-09	$29,250.00	$847,210.88	All from PACs
Barbara Ferris	OH-10	$12,234.00	$6,547.52
Joe Cimperman	OH-10	$227,599.78	$204,771.90
Tom O’Grady	OH-10	$28,300.00	$25,415.33
Rosemary Palmer	OH-10	$19,203.00	$51,737.13
Dennis Kucinich*	OH-10	$13,351.09	$13,383.26
Stephanie Tubbs Jones*	OH-11	$132,646.58	$114,704.16	$82,958.00 via PACs
Betty Sutton*	OH-13	$74,139.68	$72,403.49
Bill O’Neill	OH-14	$71,226.46	$102,930.45
Mary Jo Kilroy	OH-15	$356,898.45	$638,086.88	$35,000
John Boccieri	OH-16	$110,789.38	$308,719.15
Tim Ryan*	OH-17	$165,695.01	$357,103.59
Zack Space*	OH-18	$282,181.83	$755,810.31	$11,106.88

NOTES: Incumbents indicated with asterisk  (*)

Anyone not listed did not file a report. (Candidates who raised less than $5,000 are not required to file.)