Month: February 2008

Crossposted at RichardCarter2008.com:

As I talked about yesterday, over 40,000 voters across Nebraska came out to our first Democratic Presidential Caucus. Thousands of new voters were attracted to the process, and it has breathed new life into the Nebraska Democratic Party. But it is time for us to do more. We can not let this incredible moment pass us by.

It is time to keep the momentum in Nebraska!

I ask you now to join us in that effort. Our goal is to bring in 50 new donors into this campaign. 50 people who want to stand for change not just in blue states or swing states, but red states as well. 50 people who want to build that new American majority and change the direction this country is headed.

It is time to bring our brave men and women home from Iraq. It is time to treat our veterans with the respect they deserve, and strengthen our military to deal with the threats of the 21st Century. It is time to invest in industry and infrastructure, and promote innovation to create high-paying jobs here – where they belong. It is time to make sure parents are able to provide affordable healthcare and a quality education for themselves and their children. But we can’t do that without momentum, and we certainly can not do that with you.

There are plenty of cynics who say we can not win. A Democrat in Nebraska, no way! But we want to prove them wrong. The people of Nebraska’s Second Congressional District are ready to stand for change. All we need? A little momentum.

Thank you for your support.

Yesterday was the filing deadline in New Mexico. So today, we definitively know who is running for the Senate, First Congressional District, Second Congressional District and Third Congressional District seats on for both the Democratic and Republican nominations.  

And every single seat has at least one competitive primary for a very simple reason: All three House seats in New Mexico and a Senate seat are all open seats without an incumbent running.  Crazy times in New Mexico.

So  the final, definitive edition of Who’s Running in New Mexico for 2008, and a little bit of analysis, is below the fold:

A version of this post appears at New Mexico FBIHOP

Senate Race

Tom Udall is the only candidate running for the Senate seat on the Democratic seat.  Leland Lehrman, who expressed his interest in running for the seat even after Udall jumped into the race, did not file in time to run for office as a Democrat.   Tom Udall will face absolutely no primary competition, not that Lehrman was expected to be even a speed bump, let alone an obstacle.  With his impressive fourth-quarter fundraising, Tom Udall has the momentum and looks to be the favorite to win the seat even nine months out from the elections.

On the Republican side, it will be a battle royale between Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Both currently serve as New Mexico Representatives, and both officially filed Tuesday.  The primary between the two should be very interesting; Steve Pearce has the support of the far-right Club for Growth, but Wilson is an experienced campaigner who has survived tough battles before.  However, she has never faced a tough battle in a primary.  Tom Benavides did not file his papers to run again, surely much to the chagrin of Jay Miller.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District, currently held by Republican Heather Wilson, is in central New Mexico and contains much of the Albuquerque area.  Albuquerque is New Mexico’s largest city. The district also extends into rural areas of surrounding counties, but the largest voting bloc is in Albuquerque.  It has a PVI of D+2, but has had a Republican Representative for its entire existence.

Among Democrats, Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan-Grisham, Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Jessica Wolfe and Robert Pidcock are all vying for the Democratic nomination.  Heinrich is clearly the frontrunner here, and should win the Democratic primary easily; he has the most money, the most momentum and the most established and visible campaign so far.  Heinrich’s campaign looks to be actually in gear and running, while the others are waiting for something to jumpstart theirs.  In the case of Vigil-Giron and Wolfe, they both only jumped in the race within the last couple of weeks.

For Republicans, things are much more simple.  Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and State Representative Joe Carraro are vying for the Republican nomination.  White has the support from the Republican establishment, but Carraro is a firebreather who could give White headaches throughout the campaign.  Carraro will get significant free press just because he is charismatic and likely to say something… let’s just say not smart.  White is the favorite on the Republican side, however.

Second Congressional District

The Second Congressional District is in the highly conservative Southern New Mexico and is currently held by far-right Republican Steve Pearce.  The district is larger than the state of Pennsylvania and includes population centers like Las Cruces, Alamagordo, Roswell and Socorro.  The district has a PVI of R+6 and has always been held by a Republican.

There are four Democratic candidates running for the Second Congressional District.  Harry Teague, Bill McCamley, Al Kissling and Frank McKinnon all will run for the Democratic nomination for the seat.  McCamley and Teague are in the top tier while Kissling and McKinnon are in a lower tier.  Teague will have significant institutional and financial support among the oil and gas industry in southern New Mexico, but McCamley has been working hard, traveling throughout the large district, meeting Democrats in every county so far.

For Republicans… wow, things are crazy.  Even though Bob Cornelius did not file and instead endorsed Terry Marquardt, there are still six candidates running.  Aubrey Dunn, Jr., Ed Tinsley, C. Earl Greer, Monty Newman, Greg Sowards and the aforementioned Marquardt are all running.  Phew. This one should be a doozy.

Third Congressional District

The Third Congressional District is highly Democratic and is currently held by Democrat Tom Udall.  It includes all of northern New Mexico including the capital city of Santa Fe.  It has conservative population centers such as Clovis and Portales in Eastern New Mexico and Farmington in the Four Corners area.  But the rest of the district is a Democratic stronghold, including Taos and Las Vegas.  The district was briefly held by a Republican, but that was a fluke and besides that has been held by either now-Governor Bill Richardson or Udall for the rest of its time as a district.  It has a PVI of D+6.

Multiple Democrats are vying for the Democratic-leaning Third Congressional District.  Ben Ray Lujan, Don Wiviott, Harry Montoya, and Jon Adams are all running for the seat.  The conventional wisdom goes that Lujan is the favorite to win.  Wiviott and Shendo, Jr should pose a bit of a challenge to Lujan; Adams and Montoya are lower-tiered candidates.

Among Republicans… well, it doesn’t really matter in this heavily Democratic-seat in what looks to be a heavily-Democratic year. For what it’s worth, Marco E. Gonzales and Dan East are both running for the right to be the Republicans to lose in the general election.

I haven’t learned much about him yet,  but a Democrat who, at the very least, appears to have put some thought into lining up some meaningful support, has announced a challenge to Republican Congressman Steve Buyer, the incumbent in Indiana District 4.

His name is Nels Ackerson, and his website is here:

http://www.nels4congress.com/

He’s starting out with former Senator Birch Bayh as honorary campaign chair. Some of you are too young to remember the Senate career of Birch Bayh, but let an old-timer assure you that Birch Bayh was substantially more liberal than his DLC son Evan, who’s in the Senate now.

Ackerson has also been endorsed by former Congressman Lee Hamilton.

The “issues” section on Ackerson’s web page is thin on social issues and looks like a centrist positioning himself to appeal to centrist voters. He’s critical of the current Administration’s war in Iraq, but fuzzy about solutions. He calls for better treatment of veterans. The best thing I saw there was a strong statement supporting civil liberties against government encroachments and erosion.  

In the 2006 cycle the GOP incumbent raised $744K and cruised to a comfortable win (63%/37%) over Democratic challenger David Sanders, who raised $136K.  

cross-posted also at the big orange blog

12:03 am EST: 51% now recorded in MD-04, and Edwards is up 59-37. Gilchrest has fallen further behind, 41-35, with 55% in. Would be interesting to see two incumbents in the same state lose on the same night.

11:37 pm EST: MD-01 has tightened up, with Gilchrest behind 39-36 with about half the vote in. Edwards has a 22-point lead with around 40% of precincts reporting.

11:22 pm EST: 59-36 Edwards with 39% in.

11:16 pm EST: I almost forgot about Wayne Gilchrest’s primary in MD-01. Right now, he’s losing 42-31 with 23% of the vote in. Not looking good. A Gilchrest loss would drive the GOP ever further to the right.

11:08 pm EST: 58-38 Edwards with 31% in.

Follow the results here. With 11% reporting, Donna Edwards is up 55-42 over Al Wynn. Keep your fingers crossed.

Here is Kentucky’s First Congressional District we call our Congressman Exxon Ed Whitfield. This is because he holds stock in Exxon and Chevron, but not the people of our district. Now, holding stock in itself is not wrong. Making profit and being successful is not wrong. However, when you are a Congressman that doesn’t even own a house in the district you represent, and you continually vote in the interests of your stock holdings over the people you represent, that is a problem.  

The investment in the fuels of the future could be essential to building good jobs, and re-opening plants shut down by free trade to do something new, refine the fuels of the future here in Kentucky’s First District. With our endless acres of farmland, a little investment in research could end up being very beneficial to Kentucky. We could grow the products to make bio-fuels here, and create endless high-paying jobs refining them. After all, Kentucky’s First District had a whopping poverty rate of 17.62% in 2006.

However, Exxon Eddie is far removed from those of us who live in, or just above poverty. Look at his net worth as of 2005:

From $1,402,041 to $3,658,000

http://www.opensecrets.org/pfd…

With his cushy job and personal fortune, why should he worry about the citizens of Kentucky’s First falling further behind? He doesn’t live here, and definately has plenty to fall back on. Including his stock in Exxon and Chevron:

Chevron Corp  $100,001 to $250,000  

Exxon Mobil  $100,001 to $250,000

http://www.opensecrets.org/pfd…

Now, as stated before, success is not a bad thing in America. However, lets look at how Exxon Eddie voted for Exxon instead of the citizens he represents who need investment in the fuels of the future that could give Kentucky and economic boom.

Here are some votes where Exxon Eddie supported Big Oil over the citizens of Kentucky. These started in 2003:

On April 10, 2003, the House of Representatives defeated, by a vote of 162 – 268, a proposal to require a 5 percent reduction in automotive fuel use by 2010, (which would equate roughly to an average standard of 30 miles per gallon). A YES vote (to require a reduction on fuel use) was the pro-environment vote. All of Kentucky’s representatives (Lewis, Lucas, Whitfield, Rogers, Northup, and Fletcher) voted NO.

http://www.biology.eku.edu/kos…

Of course, less fuel use means less money for Whitfield’s stock in Big Oil.

But it doesn’t end there:

On April 11, 2003, Ron Kind (D-WI) offered an amendment to the energy bill (HR 6) that would have removed harmful oil and gas drilling provisions and subsidies from the Energy Bill. The Kind amendment attempted to strike Title II from H.R. 6, which threatens special wildlands and sensitive coastal areas, exempts drilling sites from water pollution standards, and provides unnecessary Federal hand-outs to industry at the cost of the American taxpayer. Despite a recent study by the Interior Department confirming most oil (85%) and gas (88%) resources on our public lands are already available for development, this title seeks to further expedite the permitting and leasing of these resources at the expense of meaningful public involvement and environmental review. Title II of the House energy bill provides unnecessary corporate subsidies for the oil and gas industry during a time of record profits. This title also promotes the use of government funds for unnecessary studies and research that would solely benefit the oil and gas industry. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the provisions of Title II alone will cost taxpayers $414 million over the next ten years. The Kind Amendment would have removed these harmful provisions, as well as a variety of handouts to oil and gas industry, from the energy bill but was defeated by a vote of 171 to 251. YES was the pro-environment vote. All of Kentucky’s representatives (Lewis, Lucas, Whitfield, Rogers, Northup, and Fletcher) voted NO.

http://www.biology.eku.edu/kos…

Corporate subsidies for Big Oil at a time of record profits? It is safe to assume who Whitfield voted for there, and it WASN’T the citizens of Kentucky’s First District!!

But not to worry, Exxon Eddie was watching out for the big electric utilities too:

On April 11, 2003, the U.S. House of Representatives passed an outdated, polluting energy bill (HR 6), rejecting a host of common-sense solutions and choosing instead to sacrifice the crown jewel of America’s National Wildlife Refuge system.  HR 6 continues our dependence on oil by failing to provide any significant increases in the fuel economy of cars, SUVs and other light trucks. America’s automobiles guzzle more than 8 million barrels of oil per day. HR 6 exposes consumers to more corporate fraud by rewriting the rules on electricity markets to benefit the utility industry and expose consumers to more Enron-like debacles. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has found that utility companies gouged California’s consumers by creating false electricity shortages. HR 6 provides huge subsidies on polluting industries by providing billions of dollars to polluting industries including coal, oil and nuclear. Over the next 10 years, these three industries are already scheduled to receive over $33 billion in handouts. Finally, HR 6 threatens America’s special places. By relying on destructive drilling in Western public lands, possibly including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and threatens sensitive coastal and marine areas. Pillaging the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would yield less than a six-month supply of oil but would cost America our last pristine Arctic wilderness.  The Energy Bill passed 247-145. NO was the pro-environmental vote. All of Kentucky’s representatives (Lewis, Lucas, Whitfield, Rogers, Northup, and Fletcher) voted YES.

http://www.biology.eku.edu/kos…

Huge subsidies for polluting industries such as coal, oil and nuclear? Industries that already have $33 billion in subsidies scheduled? Last but not least, allowing the Oil Industries to rape one of the last remaining pristine Arctic Wildernesses for pure greed? Big Oil definately has a friend in Exxon Ed Whitfield.

It is clear as long as Exxon Ed Whitfield haunts the hallowed halls of the U.S. Congress, that he will fight against having the fuels of the future, that hold promise for our workers, and industries here in Kentucky’s First to fight for Big Oil and his stock options. He will defeat any kind of progress to create high-paying jobs in Kentucky because he is invested in the old guard and profiting handsomely from it.

So what can we do? Kentucky’s First needs to send a real Representative to Washington. A representative with union roots, that is a working person and wants to represent working people. A representative that doesn’t benefit financially when Progressive change is defeated in this country.

That representative is Heather Ryan. Mother, Navy Veteran, union supporter, and most of all, working American who knows the challenges facing those of us who scratch and claw daily to make ends meet.

We are already in the general against Exxon Ed Whitfield in the fall. Go to Heather’s site and read up on her here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

Sign up for email updates and keep up with our campaign to expand our Congressional majorities. The FISA vote shows we need as many Democrats with a backbone in the Congress as we can get. Heather is that, and would fight for us without cowardice, and without rolling over. She supports a Democratic vision for this country and does so proudly.

To win this fight however, we simply must have your help. We are up against the McConnell Republican machine here in Kentucky, which as you all know is well-funded and well-oiled. Exxon Eddie has a million dollars to spend from the Big Oil interests he so gleefully represents. We need grassroots Democrats to stand up and support us desperately. Won’t you make an investment in the future of our party and our Congress, and support a “Fighting Democrat”?

The loss of Andrew Horne in Kentucky’s Senate race has shown us that we cannot depend on the leaders of our party to support real Democrats. It has shown us that Kentucky will once again be ignored and conceded by the leaders of our party. If we want to elect grassroots Democrats who will change things, it is up to us to give them the resources they need.

I can promise you while our national party has no stomach for this fight, this grassroots Kentucky Democrat has just begun to fight. My home and neighbors are important to me, as they are to Heather Ryan. Please, go here and support this fight against Exxon Ed Whitfield and the McConnell machine and send a message to the Democratic leadership as well as Mitch McConnell. We are still itching for a fight!!!:

http://www.actblue.com/page/ry…

Don’t let the powers that be derail change in this country once again. Kossacks, lets fight for Ryan!!!!

For those who may have missed it, here is Heather announcing her run for this seat, and the reasons for it:

Please, help us!! We can win this race with national Democrats behind us!!

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen gets a top-tier challenger:

Annette Taddeo, a Colombia-born business executive, told The Miami Herald Saturday she will challenge Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen for her seat in the U.S. Congress.

“I think voters are hungry for new leadership and they have a chance to change the Bush-Lehtinen approach, which has obviously failed us,” said Taddeo, 40. “I’m confident the voters will choose a new direction and that I will win.”

Taddeo’s decision also completes the Democrats’ South Florida trifecta:

Taddeo’s move adds the last piece to a high-stakes Democratic Party election-year strategy to unseat the three incumbent South Florida Republican Cuban-American lawmakers: Lincoln Diaz-Balart, his brother Mario and Ros-Lehtinen.

Raul Martinez, the former Hialeah mayor, announced his candidacy against Lincoln Diaz-Balart [FL-21] on Jan. 22; Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party chairman and Cuban-American National Foundation member, announced his run against Mario Diaz-Balart [FL-25] last week.

This district is R+4.3, but Dems are banking on the voting habits of Cuban-Americans, particularly younger ones, shifting in our favor. And in fact, the registration trends are positive for us:

The largest bloc of district voters consists of Republicans, 126,152, down by more than 2,400 since the 2006 election. The number of registered Democrats has risen by more than 2,000 — from 105,400 two years ago. Unaffiliated voters have increased by more than 1,400 to 73,681.

SSP’s James Hell has been closely following developments in these races, and I know that Markos of DailyKos is also keenly interested in them. So expect plenty of blogospheric attention to this corner of the country.

I’m starting to lose count:

Saying he never intended to be a professional politician, Rep. John Shadegg announced Monday that he will not seek re-election to an eighth term in Congress.

Just weeks ago, Shadegg spoke confidently about his ability to win another term from the 3rd Congressional District, and he had raised nearly $500,000 for re-election in the fourth quarter.

On Monday, however, he said his decision was a personal one and was not spurred by concerns over his health or fear that he could lose his seat in November.

“I’ve been thinking about this for a number of months, though I’ve held it close to my vest,” Shadegg, 58, told The Republic on Monday. “I’ve just reached the conclusion I’d like to do something else with my life other than be in the minority in the U.S. House of Representatives.” (Emphasis added.)

I love it when they finally admit the truth. And Shadegg’s reason for bailing applies equally for every GOP member of Congress. In other words, I doubt he’ll be the last to retire.

This district has a PVI of R+5.9. Tough sledding, but we have a strong candidate in Bob Lord, who has already raised over $600K and still has half-a-mil on hand. And with any luck, we’ll see a bloody GOP primary. The AZ Republic says:

As of Monday night, no Republican challenger had stepped up, but several names have been mentioned, including: Shadegg chief of staff Sean Noble, Arizona House Speaker Jim Weiers, state Sen. Jim Waring, Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes and Scottsdale attorney Jordan Rose.

Arizona’s primary is very late – not until Sept. 2nd. So a drawn-out fight could put the GOP at a big disadvantage.

P.S. Caped Composer caught this one right away when it broke.

UPDATE: Local Dems are rallying around Lord:

Emily Bittner, communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party, said the party would support Lord over other Democrats.

“The party is strongly behind Bob Lord,” said Maria Weeg, executive director of the party.

On top of that, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon (D) said he would not run, and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson (whose name was also in the mix) has now endorsed Lord.

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

CA-25 – R+7,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-25 – R+4,

KY-01 – R+10,

NE-02 – R+9,

SC-01 – R+10,

VA-07 – R+11,

But one more race will have an unopposed Republican incumbent in November:

KY-05 – R+8 (our candidate is running for the Senate),

So 381 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 148 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 148

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 17

Districts without any candidates – 28

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

NE-02 – R+9,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

SC-01 – R+10,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

FL-18 – R+4,

MT-AL – R+11,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

ID-02 – R+19,

IN-05 – R+20,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-04 – R+5,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 15 states with one race to fill! And then there is Kentucky where filing has finished leaving 1 vacancy. That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***