TN-09: Outrage

Beyond disgusting:

Backstory:

The flier, which provides the name and telephone number of Rev. George Brooks of Murfreesboro, Tenn., has been in circulation since at least last Thursday. On Monday, Brooks took responsibility for the broadside, saying, “I sent that out.”

Brooks said he sent the flier because the 9th Congressional District is “about 90-something percent black. That’s the reason.” According to the latest U.S. Census, in 2000, the district was 59.7 percent black.

According to an editorial in yesterday’s Memphis Commercial Appeal, Cohen’s primary oppponent, Nikki Tinker, had been slow to condemn the flier. A newer AP article says she was “incensed” by it.

Previously, Rep. Cohen has been attacked by clergy in the district for supporting a federal anti-hate crimes bill, a measure favored by the NAACP. Cohen also says that no one ever questioned Rep. Harold Ford (his predecessor in the seat) for supporting this bill, too. One clergyman responded:

“He’s not black and he can’t represent me, that’s just the bottom line,” said Rev. Robert Poindexter of Mt. Moriah Baptist Church.

It goes without saying that racist and antisemitic attacks have absolutely no place anywhere in the world, and especially not in American politics.

SC-02: What’s the Outlook?

In a state without much in the way of competitive seats, SC-02 appears to be the most competitive, with a PVI of R+9 or so.  And it doesn’t look like Joe Wilson has had serious competition since forever.

Anyway, what with the outpouring of Dem voters relative to GOP voters in the recent presidential primaries, I’m wondering if this might be an outside takeaway opportunity.  Any idea, SSP junkies?  

What’s the story with SC-02 and Joe Wilson? Any challengers on the horizon?  How strong is Wilson, anyway?  Or is this one just a lost cause?

Winning in Iraq

Crossposted at RichardCarter2008.com:

I am a Democratic candidate for United States Congress in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District.

The United States’ position in Iraq is absolutely untenable. We cannot afford the cost of the war in dollars or lives. We cannot continue to risk our national defense and our future military readiness in the pursuit of George Bush’s delusions. We must bring our troops home and allow the Iraqi people to assume their own sovereignty.

This war costs $8 billion a month, roughly $187,000 every minute of every day. This war has cost us the lives of 3,943 American Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines, and over 28,000 more wounded. This war has immeasurably cost our government its credibility both on the world stage, and in the hearts and minds of the American people.

Our huge commitment in Iraq has ruined our ability to effectively manage other situations. Our military is no longer prepared to deal with potential threats, such as Iran and North Korea. More dangerously, our national defense is in a state of total disrepair. Much of our military equipment has been overused; additionally, a vast majporty of our National Guard units are unprepared for combat. Because of this, we are not even able to defend our borders or to adequately respond to natural disasters.

I am not in favor of timetables for withdrawal, which prolong the situation–we should simply leave as quickly and safely as possible. George Bush and his Republican allies in Congress have tried to convince the American people that this is tantamount to defeat. This is incredibly disrespectful to the men and women who put their lives on the line in Iraq every day.

Our brave men and women have accomplished every mission they were given. Saddam has been deposed. There are no weapons of mass destruction. The Iraqi people have a constitution and a democratically elected government. At this point, there are no more military solutions in Iraq, only political solutions. Once we send a strong message that our presence in Iraq is neither permanent nor unconditional, it becomes much more likely that Iraqi political leaders will take the steps necessary to resolve their country’s political and security crisis. Only when we stop subsidizing the religious and ethnic strife in Iraq will the Iraqis have an incentive to work together for their own security and prosperity. We should bring our troops home now.

Help our campaign build momentum. Donate today.

IL-14: Poll Shows Tight Race

Global Strategy Group (PDF) for the Bill Foster campaign (Feb. 6-10, likely voters):

Foster (D): 43

Oberweis (R): 45

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Some other numbers from the polling memo: Oberweis has higher name rec, but much higher unfavorables (49-41) than Foster (40-14). Meanwhile, Foster polls far better among independents, 49-27. And for comparison’s sake, an April poll taken by GSG for Foster showed him losing to Denny Hastert 53-26.

You’ve probably heard that John McCain is doing a high-dollar fundraiser for Oberweis. I’d love it if Barack Obama would do the same. He’d probably raise three times as much, simply due to his campaign’s wildly higher energy level and the fact that this race is in Illinois. Fingers crossed that Obama shows up, soon.

UPDATE: That was quick. Obama has cut an ad for Foster. Don’t know if the actual video is available online yet.

A Rhode Island style boost for Obama

cross-posted at Election Inspection

In a demonstration of his cross over appeal, Barack Obama recieved the endorsement of former Republican Senator Lincoln Chaffee today stating that Obama is “the best candidate to restore American credibility”.

Lincoln Chaffee lost his senate seat to Sheldon Whitehouse in the 2006 anti-GOP wave despite his enormous in state popularity.  While Chaffee is not a super delegate for Democrats, his endorsement will get significant play on the local media in Rhode Island.

While not a particularly large state, Rhode Island will in fact gets its share of political posturing as its delegates will be extremely important here in the home stretch where every delegate will matter.  

Ron Sparks Stays on Message and It Works

It has always been said that it is hard for the business community to support a Democrat. Alabama Agriculture Commissioner  Ron Sparks spoke to the Demopolis Chamber of Commerce on February 4th during their annual banquet.  So what did the popular democrat from Ft. Payne speak about? Commissioner Sparks stayed on message talking about alternative energy, better trade policies, how we can fight childhood obesity, the decline of farmers and the incentives needed to keep farmers in Alabama.  Sparks stayed on message and did so without pandering to the business community like other ambitious Democrats that I know.

http://www.demopolistimes.com/articles/2008/02/04/news/news9443.txt

The Other MD Race (MD-1) and the next Democratic Opportunity

Cross Posted at DailyKos

Great news coming out of MD-4 as we watch Al Wynn go down to defeat, but that is not the only incumbent that is going down to defeat in the great state of MD.  Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest lost to State Senator Andrew Harris in MD-1.  

Follow me below the fold to look at this race and the interesting dynamics created by Harris defeating Gilchrest…

Future Republican Nominee Andrew Harris is a Club For Growth candidate, who has represented the Harford County and Baltimore County part of a district that has roughly 50% of its population on the Eastern Shore of MD, 25% in Anne Arundel County north of Annapolis, and 25% in Harford and Baltimore County.  The Democratic Nominee will be Frank Kratovil who is the State’s Attorney in Queen Anne’s County.  Queen Anne’s County is on the Eastern Shore.  This sets up a regional dynamic to the general election.  The Eastern Shore really doesn’t like anything “Baltimore”, which they define as anything on the west side of the Bay Bridge whether it is in fact Baltimore or Nebraska or Oregon.  With the Republican Andrew Harris from Baltimore County and the Democrat Frank Kratovil from the Eastern Shore the Democrats have a real opportunity to appeal to Eastern Shore voters and win the district.  Eastern Shore voters tend to be more in favor of protecting the environment and for fiscal discipline than Republicans these days, particularly Club For Growth candidates like Andrew Harris.  

Frank Kratovil can win this race.  I have known him for about 11 years and volunteered on his first election for State’s Attorney in 2002.  I have never met a harder working campaigner.  He will out work Harris.  He also is both very charismatic and a policy wonk.  

Heather Ryan Video Diary #1

Here in the First District of Kentucky we have an awesome candidate to unseat Exxon Ed Whitfield. Whitfield is a McConnell clone who can’t wait to vote his stock options, and rubber-stamp every failed policy of McConnell and Bush. He doesn’t own a home in our district, and is essentially a carpet-bagger.

Heather wants to earn your support in her run against Exxon Ed Whitfield. The defeat of Whitfield would be a huge blow to the McConnell machine here in Kentucky. That is not the only good thing about supporting this race however.

Heather is an awesome grassroots Democrat that supports the ideals of our party. She will have the strength and courage to stand up with something our party seems to be lacking in Congress, a backbone!! She will fight for Democratic ideals and won’t run from them.

But why not meet Heather, and listen to what she has to say in her own words? Here is the first installment of her video diary:

Please help us in this race. I know Heather personally and have seen her dedication to her family, our country, our party, and the people of the First District of Kentucky first hand. As the fiasco with Andrew Horne has shown us all, we simply can’t depend on our national party to fight for Kentucky. We can win this seat with help, and we are already in the General election against Ed Whitfield this fall.

Please go to Heather’s site and sign up for email updates to watch this race. While there, read up on Heather and the issues she cares about:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

While there, please consider supporting fellow grassroots Democrats in Kentucky that are determined to fight against Mitch McConnell and his well-oiled, well-funded machine. We are a mouse fighting a gorilla and need your support!!! You will not be disappointed in your investment in this race. We will put it to work immediately to fight the McConnell machine. We are grassroots Democrats just like yourself. Please, invest in us here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/ry…

We can and will win this race with the help of grassroots Democrats everywhere!!!

I will be keeping you updated on the newest installments of her video diary, as well as keeping you up on the hypocrisy of Ed Whitfield in the coming days. Please, join our campaign of grassroots Democrats fighting against established Repug money!!

Please Welcome SSP’s Newest Contributing Editor

Some exciting news for the Swing State Project: We’d like to welcome aboard longtime community member The Caped Composer as a new contributing editor. We’ll let CC introduce herself in a post of her own, but for now I’ll just say that I know she’ll deliver the same top-notch horserace news and analysis that you’ve come to expect from SSP.

So please give Caped Composer a warm welcome!

The race to November…..Illinois and Maryland

cross-posted at Election Inspection

In a follow up to my races to watch segment, we take a look at the primary results of the states that have already passed the filing deadlines.  Illinois held its primary a couple weeks ago and Maryland held its primary on the same day as its Presidential primary.

There has been good news and bad news in these races but most of the news has been good.  Strong Democratic challengers have been emerging in these states and things look good for taking the fight directly to the Republicans as well as sending a message to the Democratic establishment.  

In Illinois, we were watching the 3rd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th,  14th and 18th.  On the bubble, especially if Obama is the nominee, were the 13th, 16th, and 18th.

We faced great dissapointment in the 3rd district as Mark Pera failed to defeat Dan Lipinski in the primary.  Lipinski is expected to easily hold the seat come november so at a minimum, a Democrat will hold this seat, even if it is Lipinski.

In the 6th CD, Iraqi War veteran Colonel Jill Morganthaler easily won the primary and takes on Peter Roskam, who narrowly defeats Tammy Duckworth in 2006.  The 6th CD is supposed to be a throw away race but Morganthaler is a good candidate and has begun to raise decent amounts of money.

In the 8th district, Democratic Congresswoman Melissa Bean won handily and faces lower tier opposition in the general election and sshould easily win here.  This is one race the Republicans had hoped to contest heavily.  

In the 10th CD, Dan Seals easily won a chance to have a re-match and with his added name recognitition from last year and additional funds, this race should be a great race to watch.  Democrats have an excellent pick up opportunity here.

In the 11th CD, Debbie Halvorsen, a top tier recruit moves on in her race and app[ears to be the favorite to win in this Democratic pick up opportunity.

In the 13th CD, Businessman Scott Harper has seriously begun raising funds and could make this race competetive.  If Obama is at the top of the ticket, Harper would have some significant Democratis winds blowing at his back and that could help push him over the top, but he needs some early support to make sure he has some legs to stand on when that wind hits him.

In the 14th CD, it appears that Bill Foster has pulled off a narrow victory over 2006 nominee John Laesch/  Foster will be the candidate in the special election against Republican Jim Oberweis and is in a statistical deadheat despite his lack of name recognition.  Foster has a great chance to pick up the seat that once belonged to Denny Hastert and what a glorious day it will be when that happens.

In the 16th CD, Robert Abboud got past the primary and is looking like a decent candidate.  Abboud is another tailwind candidate that needs to have legs to stand on in the event that Obama turns this state super blue this year.

The Democrats have no candidate in the 18th CD after Dick Versace dropped out but they will be able to pick one.  No candidate has emerged as a predictable choice yet but once one does, this should be a competetive seat.  Potential cash defecit to the Republican shouldn’t be a problem with the cash advantage the DCCC has.  As long as a strong candidate emerges, this seat will be competetive.

The 19th CD has fallen off my watch list as the strongest candidate in the race, Joe McMenamin ran a lousy campaign and failed to get past the primary.  The Democrat in the race, Daniel Davis, is penniless and does not appear to be in any position to take on Shimkus.  If Davis could even be able to take advantage of the Obama effect even with support from the netroots at this time is questionable.  It would take a ton of DCCC money in this district to win and I don’t see that happening.

Maryland is a bastion of good news today.

In the 1st CD, Moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest lost his primary to a super conservative republican in State Senator Andy Harris.  The Democratic nominee, Frank Kratovil is well positioned to take a hold of the Democratic and Independent vote in this district and hopefully steal some moderate Republican support too.  This is the best chance Democrats have had to take this district in a long long time.

The great news continue in the 4th CD, where Donna Edwards sent a message to the Democratic establishment saying that we the people won’t take their lack of effectiveness much longer by defeating Bush Dog Democrat Al Wynn.  This is a great day when we can send better Democrats to Washington.

In the final race of this post, Maryland’s 6th CD will be a match up of Republican Roscoe Bartlett, who has a very low supply of cash against former Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty.  Dougherty defeated the 2006 nominee, Andrew Duck, in the primary and could be the strongest candidate the Dems could send.  This should be an interesting race.

I encourage all readers to take a good look at the races and put their support and donations behind these candidates.  The more races we open up to a challenge for Democrats. the harder it will be for Republicans to try to focus their efforts on beating Democrats in endangered seats.