Month: February 2008

Presidents Day Thread: Favorite Past Campaigns

Let me pose a different sort of question for this Presidents Day: Tell us about some of your favorite campaigns from the past. These could include stunning upsets where unheralded Dems beat incumbent GOPers against all odds; races where beleaguered but worthy Dems held on against stiff challenges; situations where Team Blue utterly pounded highly-touted opposition; or even moral victories, like narrow losses which set the table for an early retirement or a later win. Bonus points for good stories about campaigns you actually worked on.

Anyhow, however you define it, tell us about some of your favorite campaigns from yester-year, and why these memories still stick with you.

Congressional races round 2: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas

Here’s part two of the second round of congressional races.

Alaska has one representative – A Republican, and the filing deadline is June 2, primary August 26

Arizona has 8 representatives – 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans.  Filing deadline is June 4, primary Sept. 2

Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Filing deadline is March 10, primary May 20

District:   AK-AL

Location You know where Alaska is!

Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring

First elected  1973

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 71-22

Bush margin 2004 61-36

Notes on opponents Benson, the 2006 opponent, raised almost $200K; Young raised 10 times that

Current opponents

1.   Ethan Berkowitz

2. Jake Metcalfe

3. Diane Benson

and possibly

Mark Begrich (mayor of Anchorage)

and, if Young retires, a bunch of Republicans.

Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.

Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets, but this year, all bets are off.

District: AZ-01

Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO

Representative Rick Renzi (R) Retiring

First elected  2002

2006 margin 52-43 (remainder libertarian)

2004 margin 59-36 (remainder libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, there were well-funded opponents

Current opponents  

1. Howard Shanker

2. Allan Affeldt

3. Ann Kirkpatrick

several other Democrats are considering it, and several Republicans are running

Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)

Assessment A lot will depend on the primaries.  This could be very competitive.

District: AZ-02  

Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix

Representative Trent Franks (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither of the recent two opponents had much money, but Franks didn’t need much, either

Current opponents John Thrasher who was the 2006 challenger.

Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.

Assessment A longshot

District: AZ-03

Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree

Representative  John Shadegg (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Paine raised less than 100K

Current opponents Bob Lord and an independent

Demographics Not unusual on any of the statisitcs I track

Assessment This is clearly Republican territory, but Shadegg’s retirement throws it open.  No Republican has announced yet.

District: AZ-04

Location Phoenix and Glendale

Representative Ed Pastor (D)

First elected  1991

2006 margin 73-24

2004 margin 70-26

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-05

Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe

Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mitchell ousted Hayworth, despite raising less than Hayworth did (about $2 million to about $3 million)

Current opponents The Wiki lists a lot of potential challengers, declared challengers include Laura Knaperek, David Schweikert, Jim Ogsbury, and Jeff Hatch-Miller

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  

Assessment Like most freshmen, Mitchell is vulnerable, particularly if the Republicans put up someone less obnoxious than Hayworth.

District: AZ-06

Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state.  

Representative Jeff Flake

First elected  2000

2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents

Current opponents Richard Grayson

Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).

Assessment This is a longshot

District: AZ-07

Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico

Representative Raul Grijalva

First elected  2002

2006 margin 61-34

2004 margin 62-34

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Drake, in 2006, raised over $100K

Current opponents Gene Chewning

Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-08

Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM

Representative Gabrielle Gifford

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents Graf, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, Giffords $2.4 million

Current opponents Timothy Bee

Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)

Assessment  Although no freshman is completely safe, Giffords won pretty easily in 2006.  

District: AR-01

Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS

Representative Marion Berry (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents Neither raised much money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 17) districts.

Assessment A safe Democratic seat in a swing district

District: AR-02

Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock,

Representative Vic Snyder (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 58-42

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents Parks, in 2004, raised over 500K, almost as much as Snyder, but still lost easily

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Safe

District: AR-03

Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK

Representative John Boozman (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 59-38

Bush margin 2004 62-36

Notes on opponents Both races were relatively even (and relatively low) in spending

Current opponents Dave Pritt

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Longshot

District: AR-04

Location Southern  AR, including Fayetteville, bordering LA, TX and OK

Representative Mike Ross (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents The 2006 race was Ross vs. Ross; the Democrat raised $1.25 million, the Republican raised almost nothing

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)

Assessment Safe

Congressional races round 2: Alabama

I’m gonna start this again, updating it and changing the format.  

First of all, this time, I’m going alphabetically.  

Second, I’ll spend a little bit more time on the Democratic districts, particularly the ones that are even a little vulnerable.

Third, I’ll be more consistent in reporting

Fourth, I’ll cover more demographics

So, here we go

Alabama has 7 CDs, 5 are Republican, 2 are Democratic

District: AL-01

Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico.  It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07.

Representative Jo Bonner (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 63-37

 Bush margin 2004 64-35

 Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent had no money; in 2004, though, Judy Belk spent $400K.

Current opponents Ben Lodmell who is a moderate

Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district

Assessment This is a longshot

District: AL-02

Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery

Representative Terry Everitt (R) retiring

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 71-28

 Bush margin 2004 67-33

 Notes on opponents His opponents have had no money (less than $10,000 each)

Current opponents  No confirmed opponents, filing deadline is April 4.  For potential opponents, see the WIKI

Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th). One of the highest percentages of Blacks of any Republican represented district (only 7 had more Blacks

Assessment We need a candidate! It’s an OPEN seat! One possibility is Bobby Bright, the mayor of Montgomery

District: AL-03

Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee

Representative Mike Rogers

First elected 2002

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 61-39

 Bush margin 2004 58-41

 Notes on opponents Fuller, the 2004 opponent, spent $240K, Pierce, the 2006 opponent, spent almost nothing

Current opponents Greg Pierce

Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so.  Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).  

Assessment A long shot

District:   AL-04

Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA.

Representative Robert Aderholt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 75-25

 Bush margin 2004 71-28

 Notes on opponents Neither recent opp. had any money.

Current opponents Greg Warren

Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).

Assessment Another long shot (sigh… AL is not friendly to Democrats)

District: AL-05

Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN.  Includes Huntsville and Decautur

Representative Bud Cramer (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 73-27

 Bush margin 2004 60-39

 Notes on opponents Last close election was in 1996

Current opponents Ray McKee

Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.

Assessment  Cramer is one of the most conservative Dems in the House.  But there are only 13 districts that have Democratic representatives and are this Republican at the national level.  A safe Democratic seat in a red district is something/

District: AL-06

Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible

Representative Spencer Bacchus (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

 Bush margin 2004 78-22

 Notes on opponents none

Current opponents  none

Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so

Assessment If we have to skip a race, this is probably the one

District: AL-07

Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two ‘fingers’ to include more Blacks.

Representative Artur Davis

First elected  2002

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

 Bush margin 2004 35-64

 Notes on opponents None close

Current opponents none

Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it’s got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)

Assessment Davis ought to be primaried. If there is going to be one Democratic district in AL, it ought to have a progressive.

Congressional Elections: Americans for Ryan!!

I believe we are going to elect a Democratic President this year. Voter turnouts in the primaries and caucuses so far have shown that America is simply fired up about our great Presidential candidates. Why shouldn’t they be? I mean, our party should look at pride at the candidates we put forth this year.  

I mean, men like Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, and even Mike Gravel are far superior to ANY candidate put forth by the other side. AND THAT WAS OUR SECOND TIER IN THIS PRIMARY!!! Then we you look at our final three, Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, you begin to realize why our party is so much more superior to the Republicans.

Our final three candidates offered hope to millions in there own way. Obama with his ability to reach out and bring new, young voters into the process and fire them up, Clinton with her toughness and resolve and determination, and Edwards with his ability to appeal to our better angels, yes ALL our candidates are far superior to anything the Republicans offered. And the voters have proven it.

Now, we are down to two awesome candidates. I think either one would be a vast improvement over the last eight years. I think too, that either one will need more than just the slim majority of seats offered in both chambers of Congress to get Progressive change enacted. We have seen that when you count Democrats that don’t always support us, we actually have a slim MINORITY for enacting Progressive Change.

We are putting a lot of stock in our Presidential candidates. The support that has been shown them is staggering. However, lets not forget the fact that even if we do succeed in electing one of these fine Democrats, which I believe we will, if we do not expand their majorities in both chambers of Congress with the kind of Democrats they will need, Democrats that will fight, their hands will be tied. We must not only give them a mandate at the polls, we must give them a mandate of expanded majorities of committed Democrats in the House and Senate to achieve the progress we want. Otherwise, we are setting ourselves up for disappointment even with a Democrat in the White House.

That is why I am pleading with you now. Here in Kentucky’s First Congressional District we have a chance to replace an established Republican from the McConnell machine with an awesome Democrat who will fight with a backbone for the policies of our new President. Heather Ryan can win this race with your support, and send a clear message to the Republican establisment that Kentucky is no longer stomping grounds, and that they will no longer impede progress in this state.

Just read why she decided to run for this seat:

I was propelled into this race when I became the victim of

a corrupt politician.  

It was after my experience that I realized that the Republican Representation

Kentucky has in Washington, D.C. is part of the “Culture of Corruption” from which

our communities are currently reeling.  

Ed Whitfield, KY-01’s current representative, is no exception.  He consistently votes

for his own financial interests, has only introduced one piece of legislation in 13 years

as Representative

(a ban on eating horse meat) and opposed SCHIP legislation which would have

increased health care benefits for poor children!

I refuse to allow a powerful few to bully me and the First Congressional District.  We

need someone who is not afraid to stand up for the rights of their constituents – not

another puppet of the rich and power hungry.

I will be a TRUE Representative for the people of Kentucky’s First District!  Not a

No-Show like “Exxon Eddie Whitfield”

Read some of the issues that matter to her:

As a veteran of the United States Navy, and an active member of the American Legion, my

dedication to the men and women in uniform is unyielding.  The current service member is

highly skilled, highly trained and highly ignored by this administration.  The American people

were duped into an ill-conceived war under false pretenses and the administration continues

to over utilize a national guard system which was never intended to be used for sustained

combat missions.  Congress must insist that an exit strategy be planned and implemented

immediately.  By the Bush Administration’s own account, the nation will be forced to

reinstate the draft system again should we continue to over-tax our National Guard with

sustained combat.  I am not a supporter of reinstating the draft for as history clearly shows

us, the draft is merely for those of us who are not wealthy enough to buy our way out of

active duty.  We must not allow this ill planned and ill executed war to continue to destroy the

brave men and women in our armed forces while simultaneously placing our nation at a

heightened risk with a limited national guard.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

As a veteran, Heather will fight endlessly for real respect for our troops with more than talking points.

She also will fight for good jobs here in Western Kentucky and all over the nation, something that is sorely needed:

It is not hard to figure out that outsourcing American jobs to third world countries is

destroying our middle class.  We must stop rewarding companies who send our jobs

oversees with tax cuts and begin rewarding companies who invest in our nations future.  

As a member of a staunch union family, and a former union member myself, I understand first

hand the need for a living wage as well as benefits and training programs.  I will work

tirelessly to fight for the rights of the working person.  For far too long, the citizens of

Kentucky have been victimized by the million dollar boy’s club.  It is time for change!

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Just listening to her announcment to run for Congress tells you a lot about what kind of a Congresswoman Mrs. Ryan would be:

I have lived in Kentucky’s First District my whole life. I can attest to the fact that we need someone in Congress, someone like Heather Ryan. However, as one of the poorest Congressional districts in the nation, we need help from Democrats everywhere that want to fight for the Progress expanded Congressional majorities would bring.

That is why I personally am asking for your help. I have started an ActBlue fundraising page to benefit Heather in her run for Congress. I hope to raise $1500 dollars online for her by the time our primary comes in May. She is already on the ballot in the fall since she is the only Democrat that filed in the first by the deadline.

Investing in Heather is an investment in expanded Congressional majorities. For former Edwards supporters such as myself that want to continue to fight for the ideals he presented, this is a chance to support a candidate who will embrace many of the policies of One America in the Congress, and for the supporters of Obama and Hillary this is a chance to invest in them having a Congress that will allow either one of them to achieve their agenda when elected. Folks, this young lady will fight for all of us that support the Democratic Party!!!

Please go to my page and help me to raise $1500 during the primary for an awesome candidate that is already running in the fall against an established Republican. We won’t be recieving a million dollars in special interest money like Exxon Ed Whitield, so we have to rely on fellow grassroots Democrats like all of you to win, please go here and help me towards my goal of $1500 by May 20!!!:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Watch in the coming days for our first installment of Ask Heather Ryan, where Heather answers questions on video directly to the grassroots Democrats who ask them!!

Also, be sure to visit her site and sign up for email updates from the campaign here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Please show the power that grassroots Democrats can have when they stand up together for candidates that will fight for us!! Please help me to support Heather Ryan and give her the funding she needs!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

People to primary

This was originally at dailyKos, and is a bit dated, but the theory is still sound, I think. I’ve noted places where filing is closed….there’s always 2010!

The other day, James Risser put up an excellent diary 86 the 86 in ’08.  These are the 86 Dems. who voted with 194 Repubs to agree to keep funding the war.

I thought, though, that 1) We aren’t going to get 86 primaries going.  It would be nice, but that’s a LOT of races!  2) We don’t want to replace moderate-conservative Democrats with right wing Repubs and therefore 3) The ones we really need to target are those in Democratic districts, where a more progressive Dem. would beat a Repub.

 

What I did was go through the list of 86, find out how long each had been in Congress, how liberal they were on other issues, and what the district was like.  Then I rated each as ‘not a priority’, ‘moderate priority’, or ‘HIGH PRIORITY’; on a few, I added “GO GET HIM!”.  

These ratings are about primarying, only!  Clearly, we would be better off with 435 Democrats, all of whom vote like my guy (Jerrold Nadler, NY-8).  Well, maybe someday.  I have some ideas for what to do about that at the end.  But for now, I think we need to concentrate on these people.  Also, I did not take into account whether a primary challenge would WIN.  The reason I didn’t is because even a challenge is valuable.    

    Jason Altmire (PA 4) is a first term congressperson from a Republican district (54-45 Bush over Kerry).  He narrowly (52-48) beat Melissa Hart, who was bad news.  On other issues, he seems pretty good.  Leave him be.

    Robert Andrews (NJ 1) was elected in 1990.  The district is solidly Democratic (61-39 Kerry).  His record is generally moderate.  HIGH PRIORITY.  Mahdi Ibn-Ziyad is running.

   Joe Baca (CA 43) was first elected in 1999.  This is a solidly Democratic district (58-41 Kerry).  Baca is, in the Almanac of Am. Politics words “one of the most conservative CA Dems”.  HIGH PRIORITY. Joanne Gilbert is running



   Brian Baird (WA 03) was first elected in 1998.  This is a tight district (50-48 Bush over Kerry) that Baird wins easily (62% an 63% in recent elections). Not a priority.

   John Barrow (GA 12) was elected in 2004.  This district is moderately Democratic (54-46 Kerry), and Barrow is, at best, a moderate. He could easily be replaced with a leftist, possibly an African American, as the district is 40% AA.  The district is also getting more D over time.  HIGH PRIORITY  Update [2007-5-27 10:17:34 by plf515]: per the comments, apparently this district was just changed and is no longer so Democratic, so this is a moderate priority

       Melissa Bean (IL 8) was first elected in 2004. This is Republican territory (56-44 Bush over Kerry) and, while Bean is no lefty, she’s probably as progressive as this district will go.  Not a priority.

   Shelley Berkley (NV 01) was elected in 1998.  This is a solid Democratic district (57-41 Kerry).  Berkley has faced primaries before, and won easily, nevertheless, her fairly moderate record makes her a HIGH PRIORITY. No opponents now, but filing deadline is May 16

   Marion Berry (AR 01), first elected 1996.  A tossup district (52-48 Bush over Kerry).  Berry is a very conservative Dem. but in AR 01, I don’t know that we will do better.  Not a priority.

   Sanford Bishop (GA 02) was first elected in 1992.  This is another case of a conservative Dem. winning in Republican territory (54-46 Bush over Kerry).  Bishop is probably the most conservative guy in the Black caucus, and this district is 44% Black.  So, could a more liberal Black get enough of the White vote to win?  Maybe.  Moderate priority

   Dan Boren (OK 2) was elected in 2004.  This district is highly Republican (Bush 59-41 over Kerry).  Although Boren is a conservative Dem. he’s better than a Repub. Not a priority.

   Leonard Boswell (IA 03) has been in since 1996.  This is a swing district, Bush won by 300 votes.  Boswell wins narrowly, and a more liberal Dem. might get crushed.  Not a priority

  Rick Boucher (VA 09) was first elected in 1982.  VA 09 is overwhelminghly Repub. (Bush got 59% against Kerry) and Boucher is very popular (he wins 60% and more).  He’s very active on internet issues, from what I gathered, he’s good on those.  Not a priority – but see Va Dare’s comment.  

  Allen Boyd (FL 02) was first elected in 1996 in a district that is fairly Republican (Bush got 54 against Kerry).  Boyd is a conservative Democrat.  He ran unopposed in 06, it might be time to challenge.  Moderate priority

   Nancy Boyda (KS 01) was elected in 2006 in an overwhelmingly Repub. district (Bush 59-41 over Kerry), for this district, I think Boyda is as good as it gets.  Not a priority.

   GK Butterfield (NC 01) was elected in 2004.  This is a strongly Democratic district (Kerry got 57%).  Butterfield won in a special election to replace a criminal.  He’s pretty  good on most issues, but it’s time to hold his feet to the fire.  He ran unopposed in 2006, let’s make that not happen in ’08.  HIGH PRIORITY.

   Dennis Cardoza (CA 18) was first elected in 2002 in a swing district (Bush won by a few hundred votes).  He was co-chair of the Blue Dog Democrats.  I dunno.  Moderate priority

  Chris Carney (PA 10) is a freshman from an overwhelmingly Repub district (Bush 60-40 over Kerry).  Not a priority.

   Ben Chandler (KY 06) was first elected in 2004.  Not only is this Repub territory (Bush got 58%) but Chandler is popular.  Not a priority.

   Jim Clyburn (SC 6) was elected in 1992.  This is overwhelmingly a Democratic CD (Kerry got 61%). Considering this, and considering Clyburn’s relatively moderate record on other issues, I’d say we could make this a HIGH PRIORITY.  No primary opponents, deadline is March 31.

   Jim Cooper (TN 5) was elected in 2002, but was in from 1983-1995, as well.  This is a pretty Democratic CD (Kerry got 52%).  Cooper might seek some higher office, in which case, we might try for something here, but otherwise, I’d say it’s a moderate priority, since I can’t see us touching  Cooper

   Jim Costa (CA 20) was first elected in 2004.  This is a moderately Democratic district (Kerry got 51%, Gore got 55%).  Costa is conservative, for a Dem, and may be vulnerable in this heavily Latino (63%) district.  Moderate priority

   Bud Cramer (AL 05) has been in Congress since 1990.  He’s another conservative Dem in Republican country (Bush got 60%) and he wins by big margins.  Not a priority.  

   Henry Cuellar (TX 28) was elected in 2004.  This is a swing district, it went narrowly for Gore and narrowly against Kerry.  Moderate priority

    Susan Davis (CA 53) was elected in 2000.  This is an overwhelmingly Democratic district (Kerry got 61%). She wins easily, but could be more liberal and still win easily. HIGH PRIORITY. No primary opponents yet, and deadline is March 7

  Lincoln Davis (side note, did you know there are 8 people named Davis in Congress?) (TN 04) was elected in 2002.  This is another Republican district, Bush got 58% against Kerry.  Davis is conservative for a Democrat, but the choice is a Repub.  Not a priority.

   Norm Dicks (WA 6) has been in Congress since 1976.  This district is moderately Democratic (Kerry got 53%, Gore 52%) and Dicks is in the middle of the party.  I can’t see us getting anyone to challenge this guy – 30 years of serving is a lot – but if we COULD, it would be great.  Moderate priority.

   John Dingell (MI 15) has been in Congress longer than I’ve been alive, and I’m 47.  He got in in 1955.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 62%), and Dingell is getting old (he turns 81 this summer).  A primary opponent might get him to retire.  Lynn Rivers might be interested, she lost her seat due to redistricting (and lost the primary to Dingell). (Odd tidbit, Dingell’s father also served in Congress, starting in 1932 – that’s 75 years of a Dingell representing MI)

   Joe Donnelly (IN 02) is a freshman rep. This is a Repub. district (Bush got 56% against Kerry) and Donnelly had lost to the previous rep (Chocala) in 2004.  I’d say it’s not a priority.

   Chet Edwards (TX 17), first elected in 1990,  may be the Democrat in the most Republican district.  TX 17 went 70% for Bush.  Of course, part of that is Texas; still, this is TX, this seat was redistricted for the Repubs, and Edwards IS a Democrat (albeit a conservative one).  Despite being in for all that time, his recent elections have not been cakewalks.  Not a priority.

   Brad Ellsworth (IN 08) is a freshman in an overwhelmingly Republican district (62% for Bush over Kerry).  He replaced Hostetler, who was a real right-winger who won big in previous elections, even when he was outspent hugely.  Ellsworth is no progressive, that’s for sure, but he’s way better than anyone else we could get here.  Not a priority.

   Rahm Emanuel (IL 05) was first elected in 2002 in a strongly Democratic district (67% for Kerry).  Although he was head of the DCCC for 2006, it’s time he acted like a REAL Democrat, ALL the time.  HIGH PRIORITY. Well, it would be nice, but not realistic, and the deadline is passed.

  Bob Etheridge (NC 02) was first elected in 1996.  This is a somewhat Republican district (54% Bush over Kerry) and yet Etheridge wins easily (over 60%).  Etheridge is actually pretty good for this district, but he might run for Senate, maybe challenging Dole in 2008.  Not a priority.  Likely to go Repub if Etheridge gives up the seat.

   Gabrielle Giffords (AZ 08) is a freshman in a moderately Repub district (Bush got 53%).  She won pretty easily in an open seat (54-42) and is fairly progressive on other issues. Not a priority.

   Kirsten Gillibrand (NY 20) is yet another freshman in a Republican leaning district (Bush got 54% over Kerry).  So far, Gillibrand looks good on other issues, and so I don’t think this is a priority.  

   Charles Gonzalez (TX 20) was first elected in 1998.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 55%) and Gonzalez is too moderate.  HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent and the deadline has passed.

   Bart Gordon (TN 6) was first elected in 1984 in this Republican district (Bush got 60% against Kerry, and tied with Gore despite this being Gore’s old seat).  Gordon is a moderate, but I don’t see this district going more progressive.  Not a priority.

   Gene Green (TX 29) was first elected in 1992.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 56%, Gore got 57% and this is Texas!).  Green is a moderate….too moderate for this safe seat.  The district is 66% Latino….any progressive Latinos want to make this a HIGH PRIORITY? No opponent, deadline has passed.

   Herseth Sandlin (SD AL) was elected in 2004.  She is certainly a conservative Dem.  South Dakota is interesting – 60% for Bush, but Johnson won the Senate seat in a nail biter, and he’s far more liberal than Herseth.  I’m going to claim ignorance and make it a moderate priority.

   Baron Hill (IN 09) is a freshman in a Republican district (Bush got 59% against Kerry).  He’s no progressive, but he and Mike Sodrel (R) have been trading this seat (Hill won in 2002, Sodrel in 2004, Hill in 2006) and I’m thinking that Hill is better than a Repub.  Not a priority

   Ruben Hinojosa (TX 15) got elected in 1996, in this swing district (Bush got 55% against Kerry, but beat Gore by only 109 votes).  He’s a moderate Democrat, and this district was redistricted to favor the Repubs.  I’d say it’s not a priority.

   Tim Holden (PA 17) was first elected in 1992.  This is a Republican district (Bush got 58%) and Holden has had serious challengers in 2004 and 2002, and might again in 2008.  Holden is a conservative Democrat, but that’s the district.  Not a priority.

   Steny Hoyer (MD 05) was first elected in 1981.  This is a solid Democratic district (Kerry got 57%) and Hoyer has a lot to answer for.  GO GET HIM!  HIGH PRIORITY.   James Cusick is running, but might be worse than Hoyer, and his web page makes him look like a nut.

   Steve Kagen (WI 8) is another freshman in a fairly Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry).  He won a close race in an open seat in 2006, and he appears pretty solidly liberal.  Write him letters and ask what he was doing, but this isn’t a priority.

   Paul Kanjorski (PA 11) was first elected in 1984.  This district is moderately Democratic (53% for Kerry, 54% for Gore), and Kanjorski is moderate.  Kanjorski always wins easily, so let’s make this a HIGH PRIORITY.  Maybe a primary challenge will induce retirement. No opponent, and the deadline has passed

   Dale Kildee (MI 05) was first elected in 1976.  This is a solidly Democratic district (59% Kerry) and Kildee isn’t bad, but he could be a lot better.  He turns 78 this fall, and it’s time to ‘spend time with his family’.  GO GET HIM! HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent, deadline past.

   Ron Kind (WI 03) was first elected in 1996 in this swing district (Kerry got 51%).  Kind is a moderate, and this is a moderate district – but he wins easily in general elections, so this is moderate priority

   Nick Lampson (TX 22) took over from the Devil Incarnate aka Tom DeLay.   He’s actually not too bad on some issues (Progressive Punch gives him a 76%) and this is a right wing district (Bush got 64%).  I’d be surprised if Lampson holds on, and certainly this is not a priority.

   Rick Larsen (WA 02) was first elected in 2000.  This is a swing district (Kerry got 51%) and Larsen has been OK on other issues.  He doesn’t usually win easily in the general, so I’d say this is not a priority.

   Sander Levin (MI 12) was first elected in 1982 in this solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 61%).  But Levin is a solidly liberal guy on most issues….still, this district is solidly Democratic, so if Levin can’t explain his vote (and I’d like to see him try!) this is a HIGH PRIORITY (also, Levin is 76, he may retire soon). No opponent but the filing deadline is in May.

   Dan Lipinski (IL 03) was first elected in 2004 in this solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 59%).  This guy inherited the seat from his father, and proudly (???) claims to be the most conservative Democrat in the Illinois delegation.  GO GET HIM. HIGH PRIORITY!  Well, we tried.

   Tim Mahoney (FL 16) is the guy who took over from Mark Foley.  This is  a fairly Republican district, and Foley probably would have won if not for  well….. you know.  I don’t know what Mahoney was doing, but this is not a priority.

   Jim Marshall (GA 08 aka 03) is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district (55% Bush over Kerry) (note, this used to be GA 03).  Marshall faces tough general elections very often, and thus this race is not a priority.

   Jim Matheson (UT 02) was first elected in 2000.  Of all CDs that send Democrats to DC, this may be the most Republican (66% for Bush).  Matheson is, to be sure, a conservative Democrat.  But this is Utah. Not a priority.

   Mike McIntyre (NC 07) was first elected in 1996.  This is Republican territory (Bush got 56% against Kerry) and McIntyre is the right wing of the Democratic party.  A primary challenge might even induce him to run as a Repub (and likely win).  Not a priority.

   Kendrick Meek (FL 17) was first elected in 2002.  This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country (83% for Kerry!). Meek is wrong a LOT. This seat should be held by a flaming LIBERAL – and Meek was unopposed in 02, 04 and 06. Why??? GO GET HIM.  HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent yet, but they have until May 2.

   Charles Melancon (LA 03) was first elected in 2004 in this fairly Republican district (Bush got 58% against Kerry).  Melancon is the right wing of the Democratic party, and I’m betting the people of LA are pretty pissed at Repubs about now.  HIGH PRIORITY.  

Update [2007-5-27 9:25:40 by plf515]: But see comments.  I appear to be wrong about Louisiana

   Harry Mitchell (AZ 05)  is a freshman in a fairly Republican district (Bush got 54% against Kerry). He seems decent on other issues.  Not a priority.

   Alan Mollohan (WV 01) was first elected in 1982.  He typically wins easily in this heavily Republican district.  He’s not my favorite Democrat, but not as far right as some, and this is not a priority.

   Dennis Moore (KS 03) was first elected in 1998.  This is a Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry), and Moore isn’t a bad guy.  Not a priority.

   John Murtha (PA 12) has been in Congress since 1974.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry only got 51%, but Gore got 55%) and Murtha is pretty conservative.  He won’t be easy to beat, but let’s go for it.  HIGH PRIORITY.

No opponent, deadline past.

   Solomon Ortiz (TX 27) was first elected in 1982.  Considering this is Texas, Bush didn’t do well here (55% against Kerry, but he lost to Gore by a few hundred votes) and Ortiz is the right wing of the party.  HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent, deadline past.

   Collin Peterson (MN 07) was first elected in 1990.  This is a pretty Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry) but this guy is way to the right of the party.  The Almanac of American Politics calls him a “different kind of Democrat” – yeah, the Republican kind!  HIGH PRIORITY. Update [2007-5-27 20:19:31 by plf515]: But see comments below, this may not be as high priority as I think

   Earl Pomeroy (ND AL) has been in Congress since 1992.  I don’t get ND. It gave Bush 63%, but both senators, and lone representative are all Democrats! OTOH, its Republican governor won in a landslide.  I’ll call it not a priority, but if someone knows something?

   Nick Rahall (WV 03) was first elected in 1976.  This is a swing district (it went for Bush over Kerry, but Gore over Bush).  Rahall seems pretty decent on the issues, so I can’t say this is a priority

   Ciro Rodriguez (TX 23) just beat Henry Bonilla in 2006.  This is a solidly Repub district, and Rodriguez is not a bad guy (83 on Progressive Punch). Not a priority.

   Mike Ross (AR 04) was first elected in 2000.  This is a swing district (Bush over Kerry, Gore over Bush); Ross, though, seems to run unopposed.  Should we change that?  Moderate priority.

   Dutch Ruppersberger (MD 02) was first elected in 2002.  This district is moderately Democratic (54% for Kerry) and Ruppersberger is in the middle of the Democratic party.  Still, a challenge could be good – this one isn’t going Repub. Moderate priority.

   John Salazar (CO 03) was first elected in 2004.  This is a moderately Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry), Salazar isn’t too bad (77 on Progressive Punch) and I say it’s not a priority.

   Allyson Schwartz (PA 13) was first elected in 2004.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 56%), and, in general, Schwartz is a liberal (88 on Progresive Punch), but still, what was she thinking? Moderate priority.  

   David Scott (GA 13) was first elected in 2002.  This is a solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 64%) and Scott is a conservative Democrat.  HIGH PRIORITY.

   Joe Sestak (PA 07) is a freshman.  This is a swing district (Kerry got 53%). Sestak has been good on other Iraq votes, so I’d say let’s try to figure out what he was thinking before deciding.

   Heath Shuler (NC 11) is a freshman, and this is a solidly Repub district (Bush got 58% against Kerry).  Not a priority.

   Ike Skelton (MO 04) has been in Congress since 1976.  He’s a blue dog, but this is a Republican district (Bush got 64% against Kerry) and this is not a priority.

   Vic Snyder (AR 02) was first elected in 1996.  This is a swing district (Bush got 51% against Kerry) and Snyder is pretty good on other issues.  Not a priority.

   Zack Space (OH 18) is a freshman.  This is Bush territory (Bush got 57% against Kerry).  Space won big in 2006, he seems to be right on most things, so this is not a priority.

  John Spratt (SC 5) was first elected in 1982.  This is a Republican district (Bush got 58% against Kerry) and, that considered, Spratt is not bad (76 on Progressive Punch).  Not a priority

   Bart Stupak (MI 01) was first elected in 1992.  This is a swing district (Bush got 53% against Kerry), Stupak is scarcely a liberal, but not really a true blue dog.  He often faces general election problems, so this is not a priority.

   John Tanner (TN 08) was first elected in 1988.  This is a swing district (Bush beat Kerry, Gore beat Bush).  Tanner has won all the general elections easily, making this a moderate priority.

   Gene Taylor (MS 4) was first elected in 1989 in this strongly Republican district (Bush got 68% against Kerry).  Taylor is a conservative Democrat, but he is the best we are going to get here.  If he retires or gets primaried, this would be Repub.  Not a priority

   Bennie Thompson (MS 02) was first elected in 1993.  This is a solidly

Democratic district (Kerry got 59%) and it deserves a solidly Democratic rep.  HIGH PRIORITY.  Dorothy Benford is running

   Peter Visclosky (IN 01) was first elected in 1984, and this is another moderately Democratic district (Kerry got 55%).  Visclosky is pretty liberal, so I want to know what he’s thinking, or else, HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent, deadline next week

   Tim Walz (MN 01) is a freshman in a swing district (Bush got 51% against Kerry).  Walz seems good on most issues, and this is not a priority.

   Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL 20) was first elected in 2004.  This is a solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 64%) and Schultz wins easily.  She’s generally pretty liberal, but, I’d say, a moderate priority

   Charles Wilson (OH 06) is a freshman in a swing district (Bush got 51% vs. Kerry).  He has generally been pretty liberal, and is likely to be challenged by Republicans.  Not a priority

Summary:

Of these 86 Democrats, 53 (if I’ve counted right) are in districts that went for Bush over Kerry.  Most of these 53 are on the conservative side of the Democratic party, but that is hardly surprising.  For those votes to change, the constituencies have to change.  So, when I say “not a priority” I mean a PRIMARY is not a priority.  But grass roots efforts ARE a priority…..make people see that Republicanism is stupid!  This is especially true in the many swing districts.  

Again, if I counted correctly, there are 25 high priority candidates on the list.  That’s a LOT.  We won’t win 25 primaries….but maybe we will move 25 representatives a bit to the left.  And there are a few who might retire.  

Next steps:

 1. In the swing districts, let’s try to set up campaigns to influence the constituencies.  

 2. In the high priority districts, how can we find people to run?

 3. Have we got a list of vulnerable Repubs?  I can work on one, but I don’t want to duplicate effort.

 4. Do something similar for the Senate – a list of Democrats is here

Update [2007-5-27 11:0:26 by plf515]:

5. Make a list of Democrats in vulnerable seats who did the right thing, and support them

sources:

Almanac of American Politics

Washington Post votes database

National Journal ratings

Progressive punch

PA-11: Cook Moves Race from Safe D to Likely D

About a week ago, anti-immigrant fanatic Lou Barletta jumped into the race against Dem Rep. Paul Kanjorski in PA-11. Barletta is the Republican mayor of Hazelton, PA and is best known for pushing his city to adopt a measure which “sought to deny business permits to companies that employ illegal immigrants, fine landlords who rent to them and require tenants to register and pay for a rental permit.” It was later found unconstitutional.

This, of course, has made Barletta immensely popular among winger circles, and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report says that GOPers are “justifiably encouraged” by his entry into the race. Consequently, he’s moved his rating on the race from Safe Dem to Likely Dem. This still makes Kanjorski the overwhelming favorite, but it suggests that this seat might be in play.

While bluish, PA-11 is not rock-solid Dem territory – it has a PVI of D+5.5. However, Kanjorski has $1.5 million on hand, and he thumped Barletta by 13 points the last time the two faced off in 2002. (You’ll recall that was not an especially good Democratic year.)

Barletta is definitely swimming against the tide, with the economy teetering and voter disgust about the war in Iraq unchanged. But could being a one-issue candidate somehow play to his advantage? Can his anti-immigrant obsession tap into fears about the economy and push all other issues to the side? Without knowing a lot more about the particulars of this district, I just can’t say.

But SSPers, what say you? Does Barletta have any kidn of shot? Is Wasserman’s rating change justified? What’s this district like? Tell us.

386 races filled 400 here we come!

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along. My last update was only five days ago so yep the candidate declarations are pouring out.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

FL-18 – R+4,

IN-05 – R+20,

MT-AL – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

VA-04 – R+5,

So 386 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 153 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 153

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 18

Districts without any candidates – 24

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage.

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

ID-02 – R+19,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 26 states with a full slate, and 13 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 2 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst AL-06 does not currently have a Democratic candidate.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

How to Primary a Conservative Democrat?

     My first post here at Swing State!

Donna Edwards major win over Wynn has gotten me and a lot of others talking about the best ways to primary conservative Democrats like the Blue Dogs who undermine Democratic principles and enable Conservative policies.

See: http://www.openleft.com/showDi…

And: http://www.openleft.com/showDi…

I wonder if there are projects/groups already in place to help challengers secure endorsements, gain attention and media coverage, and fundraising.

Can anyone here make recommendations? Is anyone interestest in starting such a group/blog?

My apolgogies if this is not a very substantial post. I am still hammering out my ideas and wanted to find out if someone has already taken up this charge before I get too deep.  

A Brief Introduction To . . . Me!

Hello to all my fellow denizens of the Swing State Project!  I’m Ari, better known as the Caped Composer.  For the record, I really am a composer (and a female one at that!  How many female composers do you know?  For that matter, how many female Ari’s do you know?  I’m a double rarity!)  Regarding the “caped” part of my name, I’ve only worn a cape once in my life, when some friends dared me to wear one to a college football game.  That incident gave rise to the nickname.

I am not trained in political science– my degrees are both in music, as a matter of fact.  During my adolescence, I had no inclination toward political activism at all.  That all changed with the election of 2000, the first presidential election in which I was old enough to vote.  The debacle in my native South Florida splashed cold water on me, so to speak, and I have grown increasingly active in left-leaning politics ever since.

In 2004, I was living in Chicago (I went to graduate school there,) and I am proud to say that I spent election day in Wisconsin, getting out the vote for Kerry in the crucial suburban districts outside Milwaukee.  Many other Chicagoans also participated in this manner, and I believe that it was our efforts that gave Kerry the razor-thin victory over Bush in Wisconsin.

Since that time, I moved to New York, but have kept my fingers on the pulse of congressional and senate races across the country.  2006 was an invigorating and ultimately rewarding time; I spent a great number of hours calling voters in swing districts all over the place!  

My greatest hope for 2008 is that we can significantly increase our majority in the senate, and, furthermore, elect genuine progressives to both houses of congress.  Donna Edwards’ victory over Al Wynn earlier this week was, I hope, a sign of good things to come.

So, with that . . . I conclude my introduction.  I can’t wait to blog about more and more congressional races!