Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races.
California has 53 representatives: 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans
Filing deadline March 7; primary June 3
District: CA-01
Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento
Representative Mike Thompson (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 66-29
2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)
Bush margin 2004 38-60
Notes on opponents Neither was well funded
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-02
Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico
Representative Wally Herger (R)
First elected 1986
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 67-33
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Notes on opponents In 2006, Sekhon raised $150K to Herger’s $711K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)
Assessment A long shot
District: CA-03
Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border
Representative Dan Lungren (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 62-35
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents In 2006, Durston raised $300K to Lungren’s $600K
Current opponents Bill Durston and a Libertarian
Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%);
Assessment A long shot
District: CA-04
Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV
Representative John Doolittle (R) retiring
First elected 1990
2006 margin 49-46
2004 margin 65-35
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Brown raised $1.6 million (against Doolittle’s $2.4 million)
Current opponents Charlie Brown
Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)
Assessment Ordinarily, an open seat is easier than running against a Republican. This may be an exception – Doolittle was just so bad. OTOH, the high number of veterans may make this a better year than most for Democrats in this district, and Brown now has name recognition….. Possible
District: CA-05
Location Sacramento and some suburbs
Representative Doris Matsui (D)
First elected 2005
2006 margin 71-24
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 38-61
Notes on opponents Neither opponent raised money
Current opponents Paul Smith
Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place). Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).
Assessment Safe
District: CA-06
Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco
Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 73-27
Bush margin 2004 28-70
Notes on opponents Neither raised money. Never had a close race
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-07
Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo
Representative George Miller (D)
First elected 1974
2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 32-67
Notes on opponents the 2004 opponent had no money. No close race since 1974
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-08
Location San Francisco
Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)
First elected 1987
2006 margin 80-11
2004 margin 83-12
Bush margin 2004 14-85
Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race
Current opponents Dana Walsh
Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI
Assessment Vulnerable. Ha! Just seeing if you were paying attention. Safe.
District: CA-09
Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco
Representative Barbara Lee (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 86-11
2004 margin 85-12
Bush margin 2004 13-86
Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K. She got 31,000 votes.
Current opponents John den Dulk
Demographics Like the 5th, but more so. 35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-10
Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco
Representative Ellen Tauscher (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes
Current opponents Nicholas Gerber
Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-11
Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco
Representative Jerry McNerney
First elected 2006
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, McNerney ousted the odious Richard Pombo; Jerry spent $2.4 million, Pombo spent $4.6 million
Current opponents Dean Andal has declared, others are considering it
Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).
Assessment One of the few competitive districts in CA. McNerney will probably have a challenge. His website is here .
District: CA-12
Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco
Representative currently vacant following death of Tom Lantos. I don’t know when the special election will be.
First elected NA
2006 margin Lantos won 76-24
2004 margin Lantos won 68-21
Bush margin 2004 27-72
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None announced, nor any Democrats yet
Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.
Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.
District: CA-13
Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay
Representative Pete Stark (D)
First elected 1972
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 72-24
Bush margin 2004 28-71
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Quite similar to the 12th
Assessment Safe. Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House. Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!
District: CA-14
Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto
Representative Anna Eshoo (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 71-24
2004 margin 70-27
Bush margin 2004 33-68
Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-15
Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy
Representative Mike Honda (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 72-28
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Notes on opponents Each recent one raised about $50K.
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-16
Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin
Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 71-26
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised any money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Very similar to th 15th. The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-17
Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond
Representative Sam Farr (D)
First elected 1993
2006 margin 76-23
2004 margin 67-29
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent, Mark Risley, raised over $100K, Farr raised about $600K and won easily
Current opponents Jeff Taylor
Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)
Assessment Safe. Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones
District: CA-18
Location Central Valley
Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 68-33
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent raised over $100K, but it did him little good.
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).
Assessment Safe. Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district.
District: CA-19
Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it
Representative George Radonovich (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 66-27
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent, TJ Cox, raised almost $900K to Radonovich’s $1.1 million.
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)
Assessment It looks like a long shot, but Radanovich has played fast and loose with some rules. In 2004, he may have violated campaign finance laws, and he is increasing violation of his pledge to serve only 10 years. If we can get a strong Latino candidate, it may get interesting.
District: CA-20
Location More of the Central Valley
Representative Jim Costa (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 53-47
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents His 2004 opponent raised about $1 million.
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)
Assessment A moderate Democrat in a swing district, Costa seems relatively safe, but this is one of the few California districts that might get competitive
District: CA-21
Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley
Representative Devin Nunes (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 73-27
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Notes on opponents Steven Haze, in 2006, raised over $100K to Nunes’ $1 million
Current opponents None declared; Haze has withdrawn.
Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts
Assessment Long shot
District: CA-22
Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley
Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 31-68
Notes on opponents Beery, in 2006, raised no money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on variables I track
Assessment Long shot.
District: CA-23
Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands.
Representative Lois Capps (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 63-34
Bush margin 2004 40-58
Notes on opponents each recent opponent raised about $100K
Current opponents Don Regan
Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)
Assessment Safe. Don Regan lost to Capps in 2004
District: CA-24
Location Just interior to most of CA-23
Representative Elton Gallegly (R)
First elected 1986
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 63-34
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Notes on opponents In 2006, Martinez raised $131K and in 2004 Wagmer raosed $207K
Current opponents
1. Jill Martinez
2. Chip Fraser
3. Elliot Maggin
and some Republicans
Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).
Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992) and, if this is a big Democratic year, this could be competitive
District: CA-25
Location
Representative Buck McKeon
First elected 1992
2006 margin 60-36
2004 margin 64-36
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Rodriguez raised $230K to McKeon’s $1.4 million
Current opponents Jacquese Conaway
Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: CA-26
Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga
Representative David Dreier
First elected 1980
2006 margin 57-38
2004 margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents Neither of his recent opponents raised more than about $25K
Current opponents Russ Warner
Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)
Assessment Dreier is vulnerable. His recent opponents raised no money and still held him under 60%. The DCCC is targeting him, and this is one of the few California Republican districts that has a good chance to go blue. Warner looks like a good guy, too.
District: CA-27
Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28. This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda
Representative Brad Sherman (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 62-33
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Notes on opponents neither raised much money. Sherman’s first elections were close, but that was a decade ago.
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).
Assessment Safe
District: CA-28
Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T
Representative Howard Berman (D)
First elected 1982
2006 margin 74-19
2004 margin 71-23
Bush margin 2004 28-71
Notes on opponents neither raised money. Berman has been over 66% in every election since 1996
Current opponents No declared Republicans, one Green
Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts. Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-29
Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top.
Representative Adam Schiff (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 63-27
2004 margin 65-30
Bush margin 2004 37-61
Notes on opponents In 2004, Henry Scolinos raised $600K to Schiff’s $1.0 million. Schiff has gotten nearly identical percentages in every race since his first
Current opponents Charles Hahn
Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-30
Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu
Representative Henry Waxman
First elected 1974
2006 margin 71-26
2004 margin 71-29
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Notes on opponents In 2004, Victor Elizalde raised $262K to Waxman’s $455K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).
Assessment Safe
District: CA-31
Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood
Representative Xavier Becerra (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 80-20
Bush margin 2004 22-77
Notes on opponents Vega in 2004 did not raise much. No close race since his first
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.
Assessment Safe.
District: CA-32
Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles.
Representative Hilda Solis (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 85-15 (against a Libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Notes on opponents neither raised money. Never had a close race
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-33
Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles. This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles).
Representative Diane Watson
First elected 2001
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 16-83
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents David Crowley, and a primary opponent who lost to Watson in 2006 by 91%-9%
Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-34
Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway
Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 74-26
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Notes on opponents neither raised money. Roybal-Allard has had no close races
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.
Assessment Safe
District: CA-35
Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood
Representative Maxine Waters (D)
First elected 1990
2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)
2004 margin 81-15
Bush margin 2004 20-79
Notes on opponents No money. No close elections
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-36
Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific
Representative Jane Harman (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 63-32
2004 margin 62-33
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much. No close elections since 2000. Harman was also in Congress from 1992-1998, with very close elections each time
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos
Assessment Safe
District: CA-37
Location Long Beach
Representative Laura Richardson (D)
First elected 2007
2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 25-74
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts
Assessment Maybe a primary, but safe for Democrats
District: CA-38
Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona
Representative Grace Napolitano (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin Unopposed
Bush margin 2004 34-65
Notes on opponents No money. Never had a close race
Current opponents none declared
Demographics Again, similar to those above
Assessment Safe
District: CA-39
Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood
Representative Linda Sanchez (D)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 61=39
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents Tim Escobar, in 2004, raised $750 K, almost identical to what Sanchez raised
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)
Assessment Safe
District: CA-40
Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange
Representative Ed Royce (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 67-31
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Notes on opponents In 2006, Hoffman raised $140K, Royce got 10 times that
Current opponents :
1. Florice Hoffman, the 2006 opponent (although her website is down)
2. Christina Avalos (note to the web savvy – she looks like a good candidate, but her website could use some help)
Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area
Assessment A long shot, but Avalos might bring in more of the many Latinos in the district
District: CA-41
Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV
Representative Jerry Lewis (R)
First elected 1978
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents :
1. Rita Ramirez-Dean
2. Tim Prince
3. Louis Contreras
4. Patrick Meagher
Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)
Assessment There were rumors Lewis would retire, but he is apparently running. This is a Republican district, but Lewis is a crook, connected with Duke Cunningham and other crooks. Who knows?
District: CA-42
Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo
Representative Gary Miller (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Notes on opponents Recent opponent had no money; Miller’s winning margins have been growing
Current opponents :
1. Ron Shepston who blogs at Daily Kos under the name CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream. YES WE CAN (where have I heard that?)
2. Ed Chau
Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)
Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh.
District: CA-43
Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino
Representative Joe Baca (D)
First elected 1999
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money
Current opponents Scott Folkens (a Republican) and possibly a couple Democrats in a primary (see the Wiki)
Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.
Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at
District: CA-44
Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente
Representative Ken Calvert (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 62-35
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Notes on opponents Louis Vandenberg ran both times, neither time did he raise money
Current opponents :
1. Louis Vandeberg
2. Bill Hedrick
3. Regilio Morales
Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)
Assessment A Southern California Republican. Ethical and legal troubles. Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad. He said they were just talking. hmmmm. Where are his ears?
District: CA-45
Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border
Representative Mary Bono (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 67-33
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Notes on opponents David Roth, in 2006, raised $722K, Bono raised about double that
Current opponents :
1. Paul Clay (another website that could use some help)
2. David Hunsicker (no site)
Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)
Assessment Long shot
District: CA-46
Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands
Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R)
First elected 1988
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 62-33
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Notes on opponents Jim Brandt ran twice and neither time did he raise $100K
Current opponents Debbie Cook
Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)
Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff. Still, this is a Republican district.
District: CA-47
Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana
Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents Both Nguyen (2006) and Coronado (2004) were relatively well funded. In 1996, Sanchez pulled off a great upset, beating Robert Dornan by 984 votes
Current opponents Dina Biederman
Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian. Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.
Assessment Should be safe
District: CA-48
Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel.
Representative John Campbell (R)
First elected 2005
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 58-40
Notes on opponents In 2006, Steve Young raised $400 K, Campbell 5 times that
Current opponents Steve Young again.
Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)
Assessment A long shot
District: CA-49
Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county
Representative Darrell Issa
First elected 2000
2006 margin 63-33
2004 margin 63-35
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $100K
Current opponents Robert Hamilton
Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)
Assessment Long shot
District: CA-50
Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego.
Representative Brian Billbray (R)
First elected 2006, but was in House 1994-2000
2006 margin 53-43
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents In 2006, this must have been one of the most expensive races (I haven’t recorded these data). Billbray spent $2.6 million, his challenger Francine Busby, spent almost a million more than that
Current opponents Nick Leibham
Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).
Assessment A long shot.
District: CA-51
Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ
Representative Bob Filner (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 62-35
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Notes on opponents Each raised about $100 K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)
Assessment Probably safe
District: CA-52
Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert
Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring
First elected 1980
2006 margin 65-32
2004 margin 69-28
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K
Current opponents
1. Mike Lumpkin
2. Jim Hester
3. Vicki Butcher
and a bunch of Republicans
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment It’s a fairly Republican district, but in a Democratic year, who knows?
District: CA-53
Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs
Representative Susan Davis (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 66-29
Bush margin 2004 38-61
Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised a bit under $100K
Current opponents Delicia Holt
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
