Month: February 2008

Well this is a shocker. This fall, the corrupt Rep. Jerry Weller announced that he would retire from his seat. IL-11 has a PVI of just R+1, so this was marked to be a huge battleground. Just a few weeks ago, New Lenox mayor Tim Baldermann won the GOP primary against two lesser challengers, but now it appears he’s suddenly ready to drop out.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/… 208/GOP_nominee_for_Weller_seat_to_withd raw_from_race.html

All I can say is wow. What a blow. Why would you run for a primary if you didnt want to stay in the race? I believe the GOP has the ability to hand-pick his successor, but that person will start at a huge organization disadvantage. The Democrat in this race is State Senator Debbie Halvorson.

http://www.debbiehalvorson.com/

Who do you love, and who loves you?

Update (Trent): We thought we’d shake things up a bit this week with a caption contest.  This time, see what you can come up with for this photo of Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks (second from left) and Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright.

Whoa, that’s a lot of counts:

A federal grand jury has indicted Republican U.S. Rep. Richard Renzi of Arizona on 35 criminal counts including conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering and official extortion, according to court papers unsealed on Friday.

The indictment stems from plan by Renzi and an associate to benefit from a land-exchange plan in order to receive Renzi’s support for necessary federal legislation, court documents said.

Wonder if he’ll have to bail early ala DeLay and Ney.

Update (Trent): Boehner is encouraging Renzi to resign.

This was a short reporting period covering 01/01/2008 through 02/13/2008. Incumbents are designated with an asterisk(*). Please see notes at bottom of chart.

If you don’t see a candidate listed here, it is because I could not find a report. Candidates who don’t raise or spend over $5,000 are not required to file reports. Reports from those below that limit are voluntary.

1. Dave Woolever gave his campaign a loan of $5,000.00 and has $12,800 in other obligations.

2. Zack Space returned $4,800 in contributions. Of that total, $1,700 was from a contribution that was over limit and $3,100 was from two lobbyists.

3. Rosemary Palmer made loans to her campaign of $106,359.00

4. Mary Jo Kilroy loaned her campaign $35,000.00 and owes $27,464.80 in legal fees.

5. The filing from the campaign of Stephanie Tubbs Jones lists a disbursement of $3,500 noted as “FEC fine, audit 2005/2006 election cycle.” In addition, her report lists the cost of sending staffers to an FEC required compliance seminar. These are ordered by the FEC as a condition of settling campaign finance complaints. On May 3, 2004, her campaign settled a complaint from the FEC with a fine of $2,500.

It should also be noted that she spent has spent significant time and money campaigning on behalf of Senator Clinton as well as a $2,000 donation.

6. An FEC report states that Steve Black donated $195,000.00 to his campaign on 2/15/2008. However, this contribution is not reflected in his filing (closing date 2/1/308) which lists a balance of $58,320.00 from a loan he made to his campaign in June of last year.

This news comes as a bit of a downer for us.  Apparently, the GOP arm-twisted John Shadegg into un-retiring, according to this article from the Arizona Republic.

Too bad.  On the up-side, I guess we’ll be able to portray him as someone who is not committed to serving in Congress, since he had to be begged to stay on.

Jill Derby, who lost to then Secretary of State Dean Heller 50-45 lis back and back with a vengeance.  In fact, those are Derby’s own words.

Derby had been serving as the Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party and scrupulously avoided building her own political career while she shepherded the caucuses in their new, nationally important time slot.

Derby, of course, is the former Chancellor of the University of Nevada and she is running in a district that covers at least 75% of the state’s area but only a third of the population.  

This was one of Benawu’s open seats.  It has a daunting RVI of R+8.2.  It covers a huge and different area from the Vegas centered districts.  Yet Heller has gone from a respected statewide official to a backbencher for a minority party.  He doesn’t add name recognition and is probably more vulnerable than he was two years ago considering the poor poll ratings of Congress in general and Republican congress members in particular.

Derby’s web site, www.jillderby.com, has a huge picture odf a smilling Jill Derby with a desert background superimposed and a February 20 dateline.  It starts, “Today, I am announcing my candidacy for Congress.  I’m Jill Derby and I’m back.”

She’s probably the only candidate who can make this seat competitive.  Well, she has.

(Please forgive that groan-inducing pun in the subject line.  I just couldn’t help it).

I know this site is all about down-ballot races, but I noticed that the topic of the Veepstakes became rather popular as it spun off from the thread on coattails.  So, I’d like to open up the floor to discuss the matter . . . from the specific vantage point of how it affects the dynamics of the down-ballot races.  I’ll start with the example of one of my favorite blue-trending states, Virginia:

The names of the Virginia Triumvirate (Warner, Kaine, and Webb) have all been tossed around as VP candidates here in the blogosphere.  But, there are problems with picking any one of them.  Most obviously, Mark Warner is running for senate this year, and taking him out of the running for that will leave us with no strong candidate.  And if we don’t take that Virginia senate seat, there is no way we can get anywhere near the magic number 60.

Moving on to Tim Kaine, the first disadvantage of picking him is the fact that the Lt. Gov. of Virginia is a Republican– and not a moderate one, either.  In addition to that, Kaine is not exactly a compelling presence on the stump.  In Drew Westen’s recent book The Political Brain, Westen uses Kaine’s 2006 rebuttal to the State Of The Union as an example of what Democrats have been doing wrong in terms of presentation.  Apparently, Kaine presented himself in a way that seemed de-fanged, reminiscent of “Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood.”  I had to agree with that when I saw Kaine’s introduction to Obama at the state Jefferson-Jackson Dinner a few weeks back.  He just doesn’t come off with any oomph, if you know what I mean, and we need an attack-dog on the ticket.  Furthermore, Kaine rode into the governorship on Mark Warner’s coattails.  I highly doubt that his own coattails are as long, or that his pull statewide is that strong.

Finally, getting to the man who was “Born Fighting,” Jim Webb.  He can definitely sucker-punch the Republicans into oblivion, and appeal to voters whose top concern is national security.  And, as a writer by trade, he gives great speeches that get people fired up.  So where’s the downside?  Well . . . my lingering concern is that, while Webb would be replaced by a Democrat temporarily, no Democrat in Virginia is strong enough to hold that seat in a special election.  And, behind the scenes, the loathsome, rapacious miscreant known as George Felix Allen has been plotting his comeback. Replace Webb with a weaker candidate and we just might see Mr. Macaca back in his old senate seat.  And, if that isn’t a chilling enough image . . . remember that, before his defeat, Allen had every intention of running for president.  If he gets back into the senate, he will use it as a springboard to a national run, be it in 2012 or 2016.

To sum up the above paragraphs: Virginia is currently in a delicate stage of its development toward blueness.  Its political ecosystem must be left intact, and it will trend our way naturally.

I yield the floor!

(from the diaries – promoted by Trent Thompson)

Multiple press accounts confirm now that Scott Kleeb will make an announcement regarding the U.S. Senate race on Monday.

Lincoln Journal Star:

Scott Kleeb appeared poised Wednesday to enter the 2008 Senate race.

Kleeb, the 2006 Democratic congressional nominee in western and central Nebraska, is planning to reveal his political plans on Monday.

His candidacy would set the stage for a high-profile Democratic primary contest with Columbus industrialist Tony Raimondo for the Senate nomination.

The primary is May 13.