Month: February 2008

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

The L.A. Times blog has the story.  Most blogs focused on the line that Mitt Romney may re-enter the race, but check this out: Mitt Romney’s son Josh may run for Congress!

After a full year of campaigning for his father around the country, Josh Romney, who is the only Romney clan member to reside in Utah, is reported to be considering a race for the House of Representatives as a Republican representing Utah’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat currently held by Democrat Jim Matheson.

In an interview with the Deseret Morning News to be published in Monday’s editions, the younger Romney acknowledges that he is considering the House race. “I’m pretty young,” he says, “but I’ve had good experience on the campaign trail.” He campaigned for his father all year and invested the summer visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties.

So what do you guys think?

Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Georgia has 13 representatives: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline May 2, primary July 15

Note that GA districts changed in 2005 due to Republican redistricting.

Hawaii has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline July 22, primary Sept 20

Idaho has 2 representatives, both Republicans

Filing deadline March 21, primary May 27

District: GA-01

Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville

Representative Jack Kingston (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Joe Nelson raised just over $100K, Kingston about 10 times as much

Current opponents Bill Gillespie

Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Long shot, although Gillespie is a war veteran, which should play well here

District: GA-02

Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus

Representative Sanford Bishop (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Notes on opponents Each raised about $25K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-03

Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state

Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents neither raised much over $50,000

Current opponents None declared, but several considering (see WIKI)

Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-04

Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta

Representative Hank Johnson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Catherine Davis raised $230 K to Johnson’s $786K.  Johnson replaced Cynthia McKinney and did even better than she did against Davis

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-05

Location Atlanta and some suburbs

Representative John Lewis (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 26-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-06

Location Northern central GA

Representative Tom Price (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents Steve Sinton raised $100K to Price’s $2 million

Current opponents Only a primary declared

Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-07

Location Northern central GA

Representative John Linder (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: GA-08

Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie

Representative Jim Marshall (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, this was hotly contested, with the Republicans raising about the same as Marshall each time (roughly $1 million in 2004 and $2 million in 2006)

Current opponents  A primary from Steve Nowak, and in the general, Rick Goddard, the NRCC candidate

Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).

Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don’t use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don’t really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout.  This is one district where Obama may have coattails, in that I have to assume he would draw more Blacks into the race. But I can’t find much about Nowak.  Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case

District: GA-09

Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC.

Representative Nathan Deal (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 77-23

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Joe Inman , maybe others

Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 7th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-10

Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) and including Macon and Augusta

Representative Paul Broun (R)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Bobby Saxon

Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-11

Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta

Representative Phil Gingrey (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2006, the opponent raised no money.  2004 is not really relevant

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 5th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-12

Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta

Representative John Barrow (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Max Burns, the opponent in both 2004 and 2006, raised lots of money; in 2004, he outspent Barrow by $1 million

Current opponents Chris Edenfield and Wayne Mosley and Ray McKinney; maybe others

Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: GA-13

Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta

Representative David Scott (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Notes on opponents Deborah Honeycutt, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, almost exactly even with Scott

Current opponents Honeycutt again

Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: HI-01

Location Honolulu and immediate environs

Representative Neil Abercrombie (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2004, Dalton Tanoaka raised over $200K, Abercrombie about $1 million.  In 2006, Richard Hough raised very little

Current opponents Richard Hough (who lost in 2006)

Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: HI-02

Location All of HI except Honolulu

Representative Mazie Hirono (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Bob Hogue raised $200K to Hirono’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Bob Hogue

Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: ID-01

Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise

Representative Bill Sali (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali’s $1 million

Current opponents   Larry Grant

and

Rand Lewis (site down)

and

Walt Minnick

Sali is also being primaried

Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy.  He’s really nuts.  He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)

District: ID-02

Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY

Representative Mike Simpson

First elected  1998

2006 margin 62-34

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson’s $570K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

My good friend Ryan Anderson has the story on New Nebraska Network:

I just got off the phone with Scott Kleeb, who is headed East on I-80 towards the fight of his political life: “I’m going to Lincoln tomorrow to file for the United States Senate,” he told me.  “It’s just the first step in what’s going to be a long and hard fought campaign, but I will be taking that first step tomorrow.”

We did it, no….you did it! You got involved in our campaign. From the beginning, this is what Draft Kleeb was about – it was about you, it about us, it was about building a better Nebraska. We set out to do away with the smoke filled room and WE drafted OUR candidate into this race.

But there is so much more to do! Let us affirm that this is our campaign by buying a piece of it today. A donation today will go to helping build a stronger Democratic majority in Washington, and to help rebuild the Democratic Party in Nebraska.

Here is the link to the donations page I have set through ActBlue.

Scott will face a primary challenge from failed Bush nominee Tony Raimondo (who switched parties just weeks before he announced a run for Senate, and a month after ending his Republican campaign for Senate) and the general election fight with Former Governor Mike Johanns.

Now thing about it, how often to we get a chance to beat not one, but TWO Republicans in one race! It can, and will be done – but not without your help.

Click here to buy a piece of this people powered campaign!

Also, take a look at Scott’s amazing new website, his Logo contest, and his Facebook page.

Ryan mentions this in his post, but I will be heading down to Lincoln to live blog Scott’s filing and informing people about how the process works. I will have a post up before I leave around 7 a.m. Central. Thank you all of your help in this campaign!

P.S. Donate!

Those of us behind the Blue Majority ActBlue page would like to gauge reader sentiment on the timing of a presidential endorsement. If two-thirds of the community concurs, we will endorse Barack Obama tomorrow. If not, we will wait until the nominee is certain. Please take the poll below. Thanks!

UPDATE: The results are in. We wait.

Here’s part four of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Florida has 25 representatives: 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 2, primary is Aug 26

Of the 22 districts with more than 17% veterans, 12 are in Florida; I think this makes Florida an excellent pickup ground – the veterans, traditionally a very solidly Republican group – are tired of the war and tired of being abused by the powers that be.  Remember – Democrats support the troops, Republicans support the war

District: FL-01

Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola

Representative Jeff Miller (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 72-29

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $50K

Current opponents

Joe Roberts

and

Bryan James (no web site)

Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-02

Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee

Representative Allen Boyd (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-44

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bee Kilmer raised over $1 million, Boyd just over $2 million

Current opponents Mark Flowers and Robert Ortiz; neither has a web site

Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Safe (a safe Dem in a swing seat)

District: FL-03

Location The ‘joint’ where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrmandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy – it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:



District          %Black       %Bush 04

03                  49.3          35

04                  13.5          69  

05                   4.5          58

06                  11.9          61

07                   8.8          57  

24                   6.3          55



and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured.

Representative Corrine Brown (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)

Assessment Safe.  The benefit of a gerrymander is a seat where no opponents run

District: FL-04

Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA

Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Notes on opponents Robert Harms, the 2006 opponent, raised less than $50K

Current opponents :

Robert Harms

and

Jay McGovern

Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-05

Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle

Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents John Russell, in 2006, raised less than $100K, Robert Whittel, in 2004, raised about $140K

Current opponents Dave Werder

Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)

Assessment In 2004, Russell got outspent 10-1 and still got 40% – that indicates some vulnerability; Brown-Waite also faces a primary challenge.  I can’t find much about Werder….his blog is a bit odd.

District: FL-06

Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida

Representative Cliff Stearns (R)

First elected 1988

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, David Bruderly raise $150K to Stearns’ $450K.  Bruderly also ran in 2004 and 2002

Current opponents David Bruderly

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-07

Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach

Representative John Mica (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, John Chagnon raised only $11K

Current opponents :

Faye Armitage

and

James Clyde Malloy

Both look like progressives; Faye actually saw my diary in the last series, and wrote to me about the demographics, asking questions about hte model I used.

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)

Assessment I think there are possibilities.  The district is 9% Black, the Cook PVI is only R+4, and Mica hasn’t faced a serious challenge in 16 years.

District: FL-08

Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando

Representative Ric Keller (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Stuart raised almost $1 million to Keller’s $1.7 million

Current opponents

Charlie Stuart

Corbett Kroehler

Mike Smith

Quoc Ba Van

Alan Grayson

and

Alexander Fry (no site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Another possible pickup.  Stuart nearly did it in 2006, now he has to have better name recognition; and he has another weapon: Keller promised to leave.  See this story

District: FL-09

Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south – it’s shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees.

Representative Gus Bilirakis (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Phyllis Busansky, in 2006, raised $1.4 million to Bilirakis’ $2.6 million

Current opponents

Bill Mitchell

Anita de Palma”

John Dicks

Michael van Hoek

Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)

Assessment Another possible pickup – the very fact that there are 4 Democrats running is some indication of that.

District: FL-10

Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09.

Representative Bill Young (R)

First elected  1970

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K; but this district is getting more competitive.  In many prior years, Young was unopposed.  In 2000, he got 76%. And Young is getting old (born 1940)

Current opponents Samm Simpson , who ran in 2006

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)

Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it’s possible we could win here.

District: FL-11

Location Tampa and St. Petersburg

Representative Kathy Castor

First elected  2006

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Eddie Adams raised about $30K

Current opponents Eddie Adams and Tim Fasano

Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)

Assessment Probably safe.  Although Adams is Black, he did quite poorly last time, and I see no reason for him to do better now

District: FL-12

Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay

Representative Adam Putnam (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-20 (against two people with no party)

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents None of the recent opponents had money

Current opponents Doug Tudor

Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-13

Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia

Representative Vern Buchanan (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Perhaps the most expensive race in 2006 (I haven’t compiled the numbers). Buchanan spent $8 million and his opponent, Christine Jennings, spent $3 million.  Katherine Harris’ former seat.

Current opponents:

Chris Jennings

and

Mike LaFevers (apparently, although his site is down)

Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)

Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, and this year, he may lose (de jure as well as de facto)

District: FL-14

Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers

Representative Connie Mack (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents Neeld, who ran both in 2004 and 2006, got less than $50K each time

Current opponents :

Larry Byrnes

and

Robert Neeld

and a Republican

Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Neeld has failed twice, I know nothing about Byrnes, but it seems like a long shot

District: FL-15

Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach

Representative Dave Weldon (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Bob Bowman, in 2006, raised about $100K to Buchanan’s $900K

Current opponents

Bob Bowman (who appears a bit….errrr….odd; for one thing, he’s a 9/11 conspiracy guy) (according to this comment he is not running)

and

Steve Blythe

Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but this is a Democratic year.  With an open seat….And no Republicans have declared yet… who knows?

District: FL-16

Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it’s narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington

Representative Tim Mahoney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Negron, in 2006, raised $800K to succeed Mark Foley

Current opponents At least three

Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: FL-17

Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood

Representative Kendrick Meek (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South

Assessment Safe

District: FL-18

Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither recent opp raised $100K

Current opponents Annette Tadeo

Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  Taddeo should give Ros-Lehtinen a run for her money.

District: FL-19

Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach

Representative Robert Wexler (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unoppposed

Bush margin 2004 34-66

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Only a primary

Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment  Safe

District: FL-20

Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little… ohh… go look at the wiki.

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D)

First elected  2004 (D)

2006 margin unoppsed

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.

Assessment Safe

District: FL-21

Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats.

Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents :

Raul Martinez (obviously not a finished web site)

and

Richard Allbriton

Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  From all accounts, Martinez makes this one highly competitive

District: FL-22

Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It’s south Florida along the Atlantic….more or less.

Representative Ron Klein (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents Klein ousted Clay Shaw; Klein raised $4 million, Shaw $5 million

Current opponents Allen West

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be

District: FL-23

Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee

Representative Alcee Hastings (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 24-76

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  Marion Thorpe

Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)

Assessment Safe

District: FL-24

Location Atlantic coast, towards the north.

Representative Tom Feeney (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents :

Suzanne Kosmas

Clint Curtis (who ran in 2006)

and

Garv Bhola

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment  I had thought this a long shot, but see comments (on dailyKos): Kosmas has apparently raised more money than Feeney, and Feeney is tied to some scandals

District: FL-25

Location Southern end of Florida

Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents Joe Garcia

Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)

Assessment Vulnerable

Summary: I see only one vulnerable Democrat (Mahoney) and as many as 8 at least somewhat vulnerable Republicans

Cross-posted at Election Inspection and Daily Kos

Overall chart and Virginia here

A couple of things I’d like to make mention of before I go into my analysis of these three senate seats. First of all, for fundraising information, I’ve mostly been getting data from RCP’s Politics Nation and from Senate2008Guru’s website (go to the very bottom of the list).

Secondly, there are some states which I have ranked as being safe that I would like to briefly address. The two biggest disappointments to me this cycle have been Kentucky and Kansas, in both races we could’ve gotten top-tier (or at least second tier candidates who could’ve become top-tier), but unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way. Greg Orman had actually gotten more individual contributions in the fourth quarter than Pat Roberts, but he dropped out, and so we are left without a viable contender this time. Kentucky is a state which could’ve been in play, but unfortunately Crit Luallen and Greg Stumbo, the two top prospects of the DSCC, both decided against running and the netroots favorite candidate, Andrew Horne, dropped out after Bruce Lunsford entered the race. A lot of people say that Fischer and Lunsford have plenty of money to spend, but, as Mitt Romney has learned, money only gets you so far, and that’s especially true when the Republican you’re running against is the party’s Senate Leader.

Now then, to the lean seats:

New Mexico

• Status: Open Seat
• Ranking: Leans Democratic

Democrat running: Rep. Tom Udall (CD3)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $1 million
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $1.7 million

Republican running: Rep. Heather Wilson (CD1)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $516,000
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $1.1 million

Republican running: Rep. Steve Pearce (CD2)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $425,000
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $820,000

Polling Data 

Survey USA (released 11/19) Udall 54% Pearce 40%; Udall 57% Wilson 41%

Survey USA Primary (released 11/19) Wilson 56% Pearce 37%

Analysis: Since Pete Domenici retired and Tom Udall has entered the Senate race, this long-shot race has become the second-most likely seat for Democrats to pick up from the Republicans, (and considering the pick-up opportunities we have, that’s saying something). Now, a few caveats, had Bill Richardson entered the senate race, I would be calling this race Likely Dem instead of only Leans (don’t misread this, Udall is the second-strongest Democrat in the state, and a formidable candidate) just because of Richardson’s popularity in the state. The real question is who the Republican nominee is going to be for the fall. Steve Pearce represents the southern part of the state (Hobbes, Las Cruces, etc.), and we have a nickname for it, Little Texas. Basically Pearce is your typical wing-nut (the other day he was on UNM’s campus, and let’s just say that in Pearce’s world, the spotted owl is the reason why the economy sucks) Pearce’s nomination would basically move me to put this race into Likely Dem territory. Heather Wilson is a psedo-moderate, who has been able to win in CD1 (basically New Mexico’s largest city, Albuquerque and a slight part of Santa Fe). Everyone here remembers that Heather Wilson barely won re-election in 2006 against Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid. There is a good reason that Heather Wilson has been able to hold onto this seat for a while, it’s because she’s an adept campaigner. Whatever you say about her “moderate” record, she knows how to win.  Now, before anyone gets too nervous, Udall is no Patricia Madrid, he’s a seasoned politician and a strong fundraiser, plus he has a solid base of support, not only in the Democratic stronghold of northern New Mexico (Taos, Santa Fe, etc.), but in Heather Wilson’s base of Albuqurque. Even with Wilson as the Republican nominee, this race is still leans Democratic, but will require us to be VERY cautious about getting too ahead of ourselves (btw: as someone who REALLY wants to hear the words “Senator Tom Udall” please do me a favor and donate a few bucks to Udall’s campaign)

New Hampshire

• Status: Incumbent seeking re-election
• Ranking: Leans Democratic

Democrat running: Jeanne Shaheen (former Governor)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $1.2 million
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $1.1 million

Republican running: Sen. John Sununu

• Money raised Quarter 4: $920,000
• Cash on Hand as of 2007: $3.4 million

Polling data

• Rasmussen (released 2/13) Shaheen 49% Sununu 41%
• Granite State (released 2/11) Shaheen 54% Sununu 37%

Analysis: This is the Democrat’s third best pick-up opportunity, and while I think that Jeanne Shaheen will ultimately win this seat from Sununu there are a couple of things which worry me. As many probably already know, Shaheen’s husband has foot-in-mouth disease (the “drug dealer” comment he gave about Obama). Now, I don’t think that this alone is enough to do any significant damage, but things like this really hurt (on a side note: when you have a spouse running for office, the last thing you want to do is to piss off potential voters who are supporting another candidate). Also, Shaheen’s performance against Sununu in 2002 makes me a bit nervous this time around, but again I think that the environment is different in many ways, so a replay of the same election will almost certainly turn out differently. Sununu shouldn’t be underestimated, though, just looking at cash on hand numbers, it’s clear that he’ll be working over-time to protect himself, but Shaheen outraised Sununu by 200K last quarter, and, thanks to a lot of former Massachusetts residents, this race is looking good for us.

Well, next time I’ll be going into Louisiana’s senate seat (Mary Landrieu), and I’ll also give a bit more justification of why I think the safe seats are safe (specifically Kentucky)

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings. And other than an unfortunate performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along. My last update was only five days ago so yep the candidate declarations are pouring out.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last week:

CA-19 – R+10,

LA-04 – R+7,

NE-01 – R+11,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

SC-02 – R+9,

So 391 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 158 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 158

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1

Districts with rumoured candidates – 14

Districts without any candidates – 22

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

AL-02 – R+13,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-22 – R+16,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

ID-02 – R+19,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 27 states with a full slate, and 13 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 80% of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 2 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst AL-06 does not currently have a Democratic candidate.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas unfilled races it now seems unlikely.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

And now for something completely different.

If you haven’t seen me around SSP much in the last couple of months, allow me to finally explain why.  Yes, I’ve taken a job on a campaign, and yes, we’re gearing up for an early March vote.  But it’s not Texas or Ohio where I’m working — it’s my home province of Alberta, Canada.

In December, I left my internship at Talking Points Memo and New York City behind to come back home and serve as the online coordinator for the Alberta Liberal Party during our province’s 2008 election.  The chance to take part in this uphill battle was something that I couldn’t pass up.

Alberta, for the uninitiated, has been dominated by the ruling Progressive Conservatives (yes, the name is an oxymoron) for 37 straight years.  This kind of unbroken monopoly on government creates plenty of room for abuse of power and an arrogant sense of entitlement by the Tory elite.  However, Alberta’s vast natural resource wealth has facilitated massive government surpluses and a booming economy in the past decade — and the general attitude of “not rocking the boat” has effectively made Alberta a one-party state.

But there are signs of fatigue.  The rapid development of the oil sands has turned the economy white hot, but has also put tremendous pressure on our crumbling infrastructure and spiked the cost of living (especially housing) several times over.  Our public health care system is under strain, and environmental issues are closing in fast on this carbon-heavy province.

Coming off the 14-year reign of Premier (think: Governor) Ralph Klein, a folksy former mayor of Calgary whose gravitas in the media was nearly impeccable, Alberta’s latest Premier, Ed Stelmach, is charisma-challenged and beleaguered with the tasks of managing Alberta’s runaway growth.

The map pretty much tells the story, but you’ll have to remember that, north of the border, blue is the color of Conservatives, while the official Alberta Liberal color is red, and the left-wing rump is represented by the New Democratic Party’s orange threads.  The sole district in green is represented by the far-right Wildrose Alliance Party.

As Alberta Liberals, our representation in the Legislature is a meager 16 out of 83 seats.  The bulk of the Liberal caucus represents metropolitan Edmonton — my hometown.  With a large working-class population, a substantial number of government employees, and the influence of the left-leaning University of Alberta, Edmonton is about the friendliest turf in the province for any party that’s to the left of the Conservatives.  But with the New Democrats playing the role of bratty Naderite spoilers outside of their four seats of control, most of the districts in the city are decided by razor-thin margins and could easily flip on a dime.

But there’s a big opportunity for the Alberta Liberals to make a breakthrough in the traditionally solid Conservative city of Calgary.  Stelmach, a farmer from the Edmonton area, is unpopular there, and many residents view him as out-of-touch with the rapidly-growing city’s needs.  With Stelmach dragging his own party down in Calgary and strong candidates stepping up for the Alberta Liberals, we could see the Tory city of Calgary turn a shade of Liberal red on March 3rd.

With rural Alberta still solidly Tory (and represented by disproportionately more seats than the cities get), as Liberals, our targets are mostly the districts in the bigger cities and suburbs of Edmonton and Calgary, and the medium or small-sized cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, and Medicine Hat.

Without the overwhelming financial resources of the Tories, and our left flank divided by the sanctimonious NDP, winning this election is a steep battle.  But something feels different this time, and we could be in for a surprise on March 3rd.

The only purpose of me posting this post is to say fuck that fucker:

When Harold Ford, Jr. walked onto the Quick Center stage for his OPEN Visions forum he knew whose district he was standing in.

“There is not a better Congressman in Washington than Chris Shays,” said Ford, to a crowd of about 600 Fairfield University students and community members.

And James Carville was ready to foment a coup in order to install this asshat at the DNC. Ford is undermining one of the best Democratic House candidates this cycle, Jim Himes, as well as the party he claims to be a member of. He should be put on indefinite pariah status.

(Big hat tip to My Left Nutmeg.)

Ending months of speculation, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright has decided to seek the open seat in AL-02 currently held by retiring Republican Terry Everett. Bright is well-liked in Montgomery and widely credited with the city's recent revitilazation. And while he drew several challengers when running for a third term last summer, Bright was re-elected without a runoff. Bright was first elected mayor in 1999, when he defeated 22-year incumbent and demagogue Emory Folmar.

Bright was the DCCC's top choice for the district and they appear ready to actively support his campaign:

If Bobby Bright is the Democratic candidate, this seat becomes a pickup opportunity, given his record of success. We are invested in growing our majority and have the resources to do it.

Bright will likely have the Democratic nomination to himself, while several Republican legislators and businessmen will be duking it out in the GOP primary. The district has a PVI of R+13, but has shown it’s tendency to split a ticket and support Democrats. Nearly 76% of local office holders in the district are Democrats and statewide candidates like Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks have pulled strong numbers. It’s certainly possible for a Democrat to represent this district in Congress and Bobby Bright will be a strong candidate.