Month: April 2008

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 4/11-13, 3/29-31 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 46% (39%)

Jim Schellinger (D): 38% (41%)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Rasmussen (4/10, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 39%

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 52%

Jim Neal (D): 37%

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 51%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This campaign has yet to heat up, but considering that Neal and Hagan have no statewide profile (yet), this isn’t a bad place to start.

Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (likely special election voters, 4/8-10, 3/16-20 in parens):

Don Cazayoux (D): 49% (49%)

Woody Jenkins (R): 42% (44%)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The poll also shows that Cazayoux’s favorables have increased by 15% since March.  Cazayoux has a 55%-13% favorable/unfavorable rating, while Jenkins is at 56%/34%.  

Who knows how much of a hit Cazayoux will take after Freedom Watch’s decision to buy attack ads against him.  But for now, things are looking quite healthy here.

Special election: 5/3.

Why am I not surprised by this? Eric Kleefield at Talking Points Memo unearthed some information about Republican Congressional candidate Greg Davis and his assocation with local white supremacists.

In Mississippi’s Second District, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis agreed in 2001 to accept a plaque as a gift from the Council of Conservative Citizens, thanking the town for flying the state flag in the midst of a controversy over the flag’s Confederate emblems, according to press reports at the time.

There was a brief public outcry, during which Davis initially defended accepting the gift from the CCC, which is well-known for espousing doctrines of “racial integrity.” In the end though, Davis declined the gift. The episode involving the CCC hasn’t emerged as an issue in the current campaign — yet. But Davis won a seriously contested primary, and might just be vulnerable against Prentiss County clerk Travis Childers, the Dem challenger.

As with Woody Jenkins in Louisiana, old habits die hard. Davis eventually distanced himself from the group and their award, but his first and most basic impulse was to accept their embrace and defend doing so. That alone should speak volumes about his basic character and I hope the good people of MS-01 will speak loudly next week.

The end of round 2!

Washington has 9 representatives: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is June 6, primary is Aug 19

West Virginia has 3 representatives: 2 Democrats and 1 Republican

Filing deadline was Jan 26, primary is May 13

Wisconsin has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is July 7, primary is Sept. 9

Wyoming has 1 representative: A Republican

Filing deadline is May 30, primary Aug 19

District: WA-01

Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound

Representative Jay Inslee (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Larry Ishmael, who lost in 2006 ($22K raised, -8K net COH).  Inslee has $850K COH

Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)

Assessment safe

District: WA-02

Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound.  

Representative Rick Larsen (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 47-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Doug Roulstone raised $700K to Larsen’s $1.5 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Probably safe; certainly safe if no one runs.

District: WA-03

Location Southeastern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific

Representative Brian Baird (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 50-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Michael Messmore raised $150K to Baird’s $735K.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)

Assessment Probably safe, especially if no one runs

District: WA-04

Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima

Representative Doc Hastings (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 63-35

Notes on opponents In 2004, Sandy Matheson raised $400K to Hastings $560K.  In 2006, Richard Wright raised $293K to Hastings $622K.

Current opponents George Fearing ($63K raised, $20K net COH); Hastings has $250K net COH.

Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%), 61st most Republican

Assessment Potentially vulnerable.  Hastings is part of the Abramoff scandal.  

District: WA-05

Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla

Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers

First elected  2004

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Notes on opponents In 2004, Don Barbieri raised $1.6 million to Rodgers $1.5; in 2006, Peter Goldmark raised $1.2 million to Rodgers $1.9.

Current opponents Mark Mays (no funding info), Rodgers has $280K net COH

Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: WA-06

Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada.

Representative Norm Dicks (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: WA-07

Location Seattle

Representative Jim McDermott (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 79-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 19-79

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial), 23rd most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: WA-08

Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle

Representative Dave Reichert (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Darcy Burner and Reichert each raised about $3 million.  In 2004, Dave Ross and Reichert each raised about $1.5 million

Current opponents Darcy Burner is running again. She has raised $870K and has $600K COH (as of 12/31). Reichert has about $500K COH

Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 8th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list

District: WA-09

Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound

Representative Adam Smith (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)

Assessment Safe

District: WV-01

Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD

Representative Alan Mollohan (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Chris Wakim raised $700K to Mollohan’s $1.7 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment Safe, especially if no one runs

District: WV-02

Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD

Representative Shelley Moore Capito (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 57-41

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Callaghan raised $600K to Capito’s $2.3 million. The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents

Thornton Cooper (no funding info)

Richard Robb – net COH about $1 K

Anne Barth has raised $330K since starting her campaign in late January.  Capito has $600K COH

Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  Barth is raising money at a great clip, and has Byrd’s endorsement. Superribbie ranks it the 65th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list

District: WV-03

Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA

Representative Nick Rahall (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Marty Gearhart (no funding info).  Rahall has over $1.2 million COH

Demographics 14th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment safe

District: WI-01

Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan.

Representative Paul Ryan (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Marge Krupp has raised about $50K and has about $4K net COH, Ryan has about $1.6 million COH

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: WI-02

Location Central southern WI, including Madison

Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents Dave Magnum ran both times and raised $650K in 2004 and $1 million in 2006.  Baldwin raised about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents Dave Redick (no funding info).  Baldwin has $360K COH.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: WI-03

Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire

Representative Ron Kind (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2004, Dale Schultz raised $500K to Kind’s $1.2 million; in 2006, Paul Nelson raised $250K to Kind’s $780K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: WI-04

Location Milwaukee and some suburbs

Representative Gwen Moore (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents

Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%), 50th most Democratic

Assessment

District: WI-05

Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee

Representative Jim Sensenbrenner (R)

First elected  1978

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 67-32

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Bryan Kennedy ran both times, raising about $300K each time, Sensenbrenner got $700K and $800K

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: WI-06

Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh

Representative Tom Petri (R)

First elected  1979

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 67-30

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Little money

Current opponents Roger Kittleson has raised $7K and has $2K COH, Petri has $877K COH

Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: WI-07

Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior

Representative Dave Obey

First elected  1969

2006 margin 62-35

2004 margin 86-9-5 against a Green and another minor party

Bush margin 2004 49-50

Notes on opponents Nick Reid raised $211K to Obey’s $1.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment safe

District: WI-08

Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay

Representative Steve Kagen (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents This seat was open in 2006, and Kagen raised $3.2 million to beat John Gard, who raised $2.8 million

Current opponents John Gard, who lost in 2006, is running again.  He’s raised $360K and has $285K COH; Kagen has raised $850K and has about $200K net COH

Demographics 74th most rural (44%), 68th most Whites (92.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable.   Superribbie ranks it the 6th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: WY-AL

Location Wyoming

Representative Barbara Cubin (R) who is retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 1,012 votes of 185,000

2004 margin 55-42

Bush margin 2004 69-29

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gary Trauner raised $950K to Cubin’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Ted Ladd raised $400K to Cubin’s $900K

Current opponents Gary Trauner is running again, no funding info. Several Republicans are running too.

Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%), 13th most Republican

Assessment Cubin’s retirement makes this harder, but I think there’s still a shot. Superribbie ranks it the 39th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list

The end of the first quarter brings news that bodes well for Democrats in Michigan.  Congressional challengers Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Gary Peters (MI-09), both considered top contenders on the Red-To-Blue list, have ended the quarter with impressive fundraising totals.  

Peters’ campaign reports that it raised over $346,000 for the first quarter, reaching roughly $748,000 total for the cycle.  Furthermore, in sharp contrast to the GOP’s reliance on large-scale wealthy donors and multinational corporations, 90% of Peters’ donations came from within the Wolverine State, and 94% came from individuals.  Nearly 2,000 individual contributors signed on by the end of the quarter, reinforcing the growing power of small donations from individuals via the Internet, a trend that will undoubtedly shape elections going forward.

Schauer’s numbers reflect a similar trend, as his campaign announced that it has raised more than $326,000 in the quarter, and more than $900,000 total to date.  86% of that total came from in-state donors, and, during this quarter, the campaign saw 1,000 new individuals contribute.

Always encouraging to hear news like this, especially from districts in a crucial swing state!

Our rating system is patterned after the familiar seven-tier system used by fellow prognosticators such as CQ and Cook.  Here’s what we’ve got for the Senate race scene so far:

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
VA (Open)	LA (Landrieu) NM (Open)	CO (Open) NH (Sununu)	AK (Stevens) MN (Coleman)	ME (Collins) MS (Wicker) OR (Smith)

All other races are considered “safe” for the incumbent party. However, the following races are on SSP’s list of Races to Watch:

     KY (McConnell)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     NC (Dole)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Any of these races could earn a competitive rating given the right series of events for the challengers.

Feel free to post your take in the comments.

Continuing through the alphabet, and nearing the end 🙂

Utah has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and a Democrat

The filing deadline was March 17, the primary is June 24

Vermont has 1 representative – a Democrat

Filing deadline is July 21, primary is Sept. 9

Virginia has 11 representatives: 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats

Filing deadline was April 11, primary is June 10

District: UT-01

Location Northwestern UT, including Ogden and part of Salt Lake City

Representative Rob Bishop (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 68-29

Bush margin 2004 73-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Morgan Bowen, no funding info.  Bishop has $150K COH

Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 8th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment  Long shot

District: UT-02

Location Most of Salt Lake City, and all of southeastern UT

Representative Jim Matheson (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-37

2004 margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 66-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, John Swallow raised $1.5 million to Matheson’s $2 million; in 2006, LaVar Christenson raised $800K to Matheson’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Bill Dew, Donald Ferguson, Kenneth Gray, Merrill Cook, Brian Jenkins, Chris Jacobs (no funding info on any).  Matheson has $850K COH

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 25th most Republican

Assessment Pretty safe

District: UT-03

Location Southwestern UT, including Orem and Provo

Representative Chris Cannon (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 58-32

2004 margin 63-33

Bush margin 2004 77-20

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents A primary and then Bennion Spencer (n funding info). Cannon has only $52K COH and $180K in debt

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), most Republican district in the country

Assessment Cannon could lose a primary, but this is as Republican a district as exists.

District: VT-AL

Location Vermont

Representative Peter Welch (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Notes on opponents 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most Whites (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Current opponents None formally announced; Welch has $711K COH

Demographics 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most White (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: VA-01

Location Northeast VA, including Fredericksburg and most of the Chesapeake shoreline (on the western side)

Representative Rob Wittman (R)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents A primary, then Keith Hummel (no funding info).

Demographics 13th most veterans (17.7%),

Assessment The primary may be a battle

District: VA-02

Location Virginia Beach and the eastern side of the Chesapeake

Representative Thelma Drake (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin 55-45

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Phil Kellam raised $1.7 million to Drake’s $2.3 million. In 2004, David Ashe raised $400K to Drake’s $800K

Current opponents Glenn Nye, who raised over $250K in the 1st quarter of 2008. On 12/31, Drake had $425K COH

Demographics 3rd most veterans (20.3%)

Assessment  Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 40th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: VA-03

Location Richmond and Norfolk and more or less contiguous points in between

Representative Bobby Scott (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents In 2004, Winsome Sears raised $200K to Scott’s $500K

Current opponents None

Demographics 53rd most veterans (15.5%), 59th fewest Whites (37.7%), 16th most Blacks (56%), 60th most Democratic

Assessment Free ride

District: VA-04

Location Southeastern VA

Representative Randy Forbes (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Andrea Miller (no funding info).  Forbes has $350K COH

Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 38th most Blacks (33.1%), 91st fewest Latinos (2.0%)

Assessment long shot

District: VA-05

Location Central southern VA, north to Charlottesville

Representative  Virgil Goode (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Al Weed ran both times, raising about $500K each time

Current opponents Tom Perriello has raised $600K and has almost all of it.  Goode has raised $438K and has $593K COH (both as of 3/31/08)

Demographics 10th most rural (64.0%), 68th most Blacks (23.9%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable   Superribbie ranks it the 54th most competitive Republican seat

District: VA-06

Location Northwestern VA, bordering WV, including Roanoke

Representative Bob Goodlatte (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 75-12-12 against minor parties

2004 margin essentially unopposed

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Sam Rasoul had raised $131K and had $62K COH on 12/31; Goodlatte had over $1.3 million COH

Demographics 86th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: VA-07

Location Richmond and points north and west

Representative Eric Cantor (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 75-24

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents In 2006, James Nachman raised $100K to Cantor’s $3.5 million

Current opponents Anita Hartke (no funding info).  Cantor has $555K COH

Demographics 90th highest income (median = $51K), 90th fewest Latinos (2.0%), 86th most Republican

Assessment

District: VA-08

Location DC suburbs

Representative Jim Moran (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 66-31

2004 margin 60-37

Bush margin 2004 35-64

Notes on opponents In 2004, Lisa Marie Cheney raised $300K to Moran’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Tom O’Donoghue raised $111K to Moran’s $1 million

Current opponents Amit Singh, Mark Ellmore, Dianne Kelly, Basil Mossaides, John Villaneuva…. all of whom either have no funding info, or more debt than COH.  Moran has $700K COH

Demographics 68th highest income (median = $63K), 48th most nonBlack, nonLatino, nonWhites (mostly 9.5% Asians), 77th most Democratic

Assessment

District: VA-09

Location Eastern VA, bordering NC, TN, KY and WV

Representative Rick Boucher (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents In 2004, Kevin Triplett raised $600K to Boucher’s $1.6 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Jody Egan (no funding info).  Boucher has $1.2 million COH

Demographics 7th most rural (65.9%), 24th lowest income (median = $30K), 27th most Whites (93.3%), 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment safe

District: VA-10

Location Northern VA, bordering MD and WV

Representative Frank Wolf (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 57-41

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2004, James Socas raised $900K to Wolf’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Judy Feder raised $1.6 million to Wolf’s $1.8 million

Current opponents Feder is running again, as is Mike Turner and there is a primary opponent, too.  Feder has raised $588K and has $480K COH, Turner has raised $60K and has $30K COH; Wolf has $550K COH.

Demographics 10th highest income (median = $72K), 76th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (6.6% Asian, 1.9% multiracial),

Assessment Slightly vulnerable   Superribbie ranks it the 46th most competitive Republican seat

District: VA-11

Location DC suburbs

Representative Tom Davis (R) who is retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Andrew Hurst raised $300K to Davis $3.6 million

Current opponents The Democrats:

Doug Denneny $31K raised, $14K COH

Gerry Connolly no funding info

Leslie Byrne  $115K raised, $110K COH

Demographics Highest income (median = $80K), 41st most veterans (15.9%), 40th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (10.9% Asian, 2.6% multiracial)

Assessment  Should be a competitive race.   Superribbie ranks it the 10th most competitive Republican seat

I thought this Washington Post story on how much the entire New Jersey delegation hates Rep. Andrews to be very, very fascinating. I must admit, after reading this Andrews seems like quite a tool.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/…