Jackie Speier (D): 53,244 (78%)
Greg Conlon (R): 6,175 (9%)
Mike Moloney (R): 3,822 (6%)
Michelle McMurry (D): 3,749 (5%)
Barry Hermanson (G): 1,645 (2%)
349 of 490 precincts reporting
Congratulations to the newest member of the House of Representatives, Jackie Speier.
SurveyUSA polls the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race (likely primary voters, 4/5-7, 3/8-10 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 21% (18%)
Jim Neal (D): 20% (21%)
Duskin Lassiter: 6% (6%)
Marcus Williams: 5% (7%)
Howard Staley: 4% (4%)
Other/Undecided: 45% (44%)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Nothing terribly revealing here — primary voters are unfamiliar with both Hagan and Neal, but one would expect these numbers to settle out once the candidates ramp up their advertising efforts with four weeks to go until primary day.
Next up, NC-Gov (D):
Richard Moore (D): 40% (28%)
Beverly Perdue (D): 40% (44%)
Dennis Nielsen (D): 3% (3%)
Other/Undecided: 17% (25%)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Finally, NC-Gov (R):
Bill Graham (R): 9% (16%)
Bob Orr (R): 10% (12%)
Pat McCrory (R): 38% (26%)
Fred Smith (R): 19% (18%)
Undecided: 25% (28%)
(MoE: ±5%)
If the Democratic race here is neck-and-neck between state Treasurer Richard Moore and Lt. Gov. Beverly Purdue, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory looks like the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nod.
| Candidate | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Olson | 15,492 | 68.51% |
| Snelly Gibbr | 7,118 | 31.48% |
RESULTS: TX SoS | Houston Chronicle | KTRK | KHOU
11:28PM: Nick Lampson’s campaign manager’s statement on the results:
Lampson for Congress campaign manager Anthony Gutierrez
issued the following statement tonight regarding the results of the CD22
Republican primary runoff:“Congressman Lampson has promoted NASA while his opponent didn’t know the
name of the Johnson Space Center in a recent debate. He has worked on
transportation issues while his opponent supports more toll roads and a big
government land grab called the Trans-Texas Corridor. And he has worked for
affordable health care while his opponent opposes the State Children’s
Health Insurance Program. Congressman Lampson is an independent voice for
Texas. His opponent is a Washington insider with little or no knowledge of
this district.”
9:55PM: Yup, this one is over. The Chronicle is calling the race for Olson, who will face off with freshman Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson in November.
9:27PM: Gibbs is falling behind in the e-day votes now, too. A Snelly Gibbr loss is a loss for hilarity.
9:13PM: Sekula Gibbs is winning the e-day votes counted so far, but Olson’s early vote advantage looks formidable. RIP Gibbr?
8:30PM Eastern: Olson gets a huge early lead based on the advance ballots.
In the meantime, here were the results of the March 4th primary:
| Candidate | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Snelly Gibbr | 16,681 | 29.72% |
| Pete Olson | 11,630 | 20.72% |
| John Manlove | 8,388 | 14.94% |
| Robert Talton | 8,163 | 14.54% |
| Dean Hrbacek | 5,864 | 10.44% |
| Cynthia Dunbar | 2,114 | 3.76% |
| Jim Squier | 989 | 1.76% |
| Brian Klock | 992 | 1.76% |
| Kevyn Bazzy | 879 | 1.56% |
| Ryan Rowley | 424 | 0.75% |
While I think we’re all cheering for a Sekula Gibbs victory, this was a fun and nasty primary that either GOPer will walk away bruised from. The Gibbr picked up the endorsements of Hrbacek and Dunbar, while virtually every other Republican on the planet has endorsed Olson. Let’s see how this shakes out.
Aight, y’all … in less than month, voters will head back to the polls and decide which candidate best represents Louisiana values. Don Cazayoux’s campaign is putting the final touches on their sprint to the finish and they need our help to put them over the top. It’s time to get their message out and make sure all the voters know that Don will stand up for Louisiana families.
Don has promised to stand up for Louisiana’s middle class families by fighting to provide access to high quality, affordable health care, while at the same time making it easier for small businesses to provide health care to their employees. He’s also committed to keeping the lower tax rates for middle class families, so they can keep what they earn, and reinvest it right here in Louisiana.
CQ Quarterly called this race a “No Clear Favorite,” which is astonishing, as this district has been represented by a Republican for the last 30+ years. Even the Cook Political Report called a Cazayoux-Jenkins matchup “a perfect storm for Democrats”:
Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites – moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins – would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.
Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district’s GOP base.
Folks, we can win this one. But we need to step it up. You can donate, or volunteer. In order to win this one, we all have to step it up.
Let’s set a goal of $10,000 from the netroots. Right now, Don’s raised $60,810 from 110 donors over at ActBlue.
Let’s make it $70,810 in 7 days. I know we can do that.
We’ve all seen some pretty crazy turns of events this cycle, but this rumor from The Capitol seems like a bridge too far:
Speculation in Albany has grown that Rep. John McHugh (R-Watertown) will leave his congressional seat this year and instead challenge State Sen. Darrel Aubertine (D-Watertown).
Bipartisan sources have confirmed that the eight term congressman’s name is rising to the top of the list to challenge Aubertine, who won the Senate seat in a special election last month. McHugh held this Senate seat for eight years before going to Congress in 1992. […]
McHugh’s campaign spokesman said his boss was planning to seek another term this year and was unsure where speculation about a State Senate race would have come from. He said McHugh has not given indication of any worry over the redistricting process.
“Having served in the New York State Senate, he has the utmost respect for that body,” McHugh spokesman John Sweeney said. “He has the fullest intention of running for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives again.”
John McHugh? The same guy who is making a bid to be the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee? Even if McHugh is tired of the commute to D.C. only to toil in the minority, why on earth would he want to give up his seat only to toil in the state Senate? Democrats are on pace to pick up the chamber this November, and could quite likely still flip control even if McHugh were to pick off this seat.
Is the NY GOP that desperate? What next? Are they going to recruit Al D’Amato to run for Lt. Governor?
(H/T: The Albany Project)
DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen briefed reporters in Washington today about the state of 2008’s downballot races. Their commentary was nothing especially groundbreaking for anyone who reads the Swing State Project, but Schumer did reveal a “target ranking” that should be of interest. MSNBC’s First Read has the scoop:
Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC is challenging in 17 of 23 GOP-held seats, including eight he believes Democrats have a solid chance in and nine others where he thinks they can be competitive. […]
Here’s the picture for the DSCC provided by Schumer:
Top targets: VA, NH, NM, CO, AK. (Schumer says they are ahead here.)Second tier: OR, MN, ME. (These are blue states; Democrats are not ahead, but are competitive.)
Red-state seats in striking range: KY, NC, MS.
Good candidates with an outside chance: NE, KS, OK, GA, ID, TX. (Schumer says of Texas that he likes Noriega as a candidate and that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is polling surprisingly low.)
Potentially, that’s a very wide net to play with. Only the two Wyoming seats, Thad Cochran, Jeff Sessions, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander are definitely off the table in the DSCC’s eyes.
IL-10:
Dan Seals (D): $613K raised; $750K CoH
IL-14 (2/18-3/31; post-special):
Bill Foster (D-inc): $724K raised; $263K CoH
Jim Oberweis (R): $493K raised; $133K CoH
PA-11 (1/1-4/2):
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): $442K raised; $1.84M CoH
CT-05:
Tony Nania (R): ~$30K-$40K raised
AZ-05:
David Schweikert (R): $175K raised; >$500K CoH
FL-24:
Suzanne Kosmas (D): $300K raised; $550K CoH
PA-07 (1/1-4/2):
Craig Williams (R): $135K raised; $133K CoH
MN-02:
John Kline (R-inc): $194K raised; $510K CoH
1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of… | Raiders of the… | Alien vs. Predator vs…
All of us here are optimistic about our prospects in a Democratic year, yet we have repeatedly voiced concern about the precarious nature of some of this year's down-ballot races. In a Democratic year, why are Oregon and Maine such long-shots? Why is the picture so unclear in Colorado? And, more importantly, what can be done to fight the prospect of more Republican victories down-ballot? Well, I've got an idea, and I know that a handful of others in the blogosphere agree. I hope it echoes across the Internet and reaches the ears of the top campaign strategists for both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton (I'm hoping for Obama as the nominee)– pick Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer as the VP candidate, and the prospects of Democratic victories brighten all across the country. Whenever I mention Schweitzer's name, people inevitably respond, “But Montana only has three electoral votes!” By focusing on electoral math alone, they miss the point; if all we think about is electoral math, we are doomed to a future of precarious, one-vote majorities– nowhere near strong enough to pass progressive legislation and undo the damage of the Bush administration, which will take years.
With that in mind, I say the national ticket needs not one, but two galvanizers who can make campaign stops that whip up the crowds and help the down-ballot candidates. On that count, Brian Schweitzer is our party's secret weapon. He is a fantastic orator– second only to Obama himself in the party– and has a proven ability to resonate with Republican and independent voters. He can definitely help us pick up some Rocky Mountain states– with him on the ticket, Colorado is ours, and the coattails of an Obama/Schweitzer ticket would undoubtedly pull Mark Udall over the finish line– and we could pick off Nevada and New Mexico as well. Oregon would become more solidly blue (improving the chances of Merkley or Novick,) as would Washington State (solidifying Gov. Gregoire's re-election chances). Furthermore, while I doubt we would win Arizona, we would at least force John McCain to fight us on his home turf, which would cost him time and resources, and give the national GOP a headache (ahh, schadenfreude!)
“But wait!” you say, “What about those rust-belt states that we need to win? Hell, what about New Hampshire and Maine?” To which I say, the aforementioned independent and Republican voters to whom Schweitzer has appealed have been rural and/or working-class citizens who don't want their jobs to be outsourced, are worried about the economy in the wake of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, and disapprove of the way the war is going, but who want to keep their hunting rifles. You think there aren't voters like that in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? Of course there are! Those are the very voters who swing those states, and Schweitzer is exactly the candidate to persuade them to vote Democratic!
As for New Hampshire and Maine, Schweitzer's fiercely independent, non-dogmatic persona will resonate quite well with the numerous independent voters who might otherwise consider McCain. The libertarian streak that runs through the Mountain West is not all that different from good old-fashioned Yankee independence. Furthermore, Schweitzer took a bold early stand against the Real ID act. Make some campaign stops with Tom Allen and use that issue as the centerpiece and . . . who knows? We might just be able to unseat Susan Collins.
For those who don't know much about Schweitzer and might worry that he's some sort of DINO, relax– he is pro-choice, pro-civil union, and VERY pro-environment. In fact, he has successfully re-framed the environment issue as “conservationism,” not “environmentalism,” and it has worked– people who hunt, fish, and participate in other outdoor activities want to preserve the natural environment in which to do so. Under Schweitzer's stewardship, Montana has been at the forefront of wind energy.
So, if you agree with me on this, I exhort you to spread the word, write blog posts, and even e-mail the Clinton and Obama campaigns. I figure that, with a concerted effort, we can at least familiarize more people with his name. Hey, it can't hurt, right?
Here in Kentucky’s First Congressional District, we call our Congressman Exxon Eddie. It is a fitting moniker. Not only because Eddie owns a lot of Exxon and Chevron stock that are making him richer on the backs of the American consumer, but because Exxon Eddie uses his votes to be a shill for the Big Oil Industry. Lets look at some of these votes.
In 2001, we had his vote # 2001-311 on HR 4. Here is a summary:
Amendment to maintain the current prohibition on oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by striking language opening the reserve up to development.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…
Yes, Exxon Eddie voted for the raping of the pristine Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge. Despite the fact that many people believe that the oil in ANWR will provide little relief at the pump, and have little long-term affect of the problem of Energy Dependence. It is all about profit, not finding solutions for everyday Americans and Kentuckians.
Moving on, in Aug., 2001 Exxon Eddie voted against CAFE standards in HR 4, vote 2001-317:
Require a combined corporate average fuel efficiency [CAFE] standard for passenger automobiles and light trucks, including sport utility vehicles, of 26 mpg in 2005 and of 27.5 mpg in 2007. It also would offer incentives for alternative fuel vehicles.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…
Then in Nov. 2003, you had his vote on HR 6, number 2003-630 which was a rubber-stamp of the Bush-Cheney Energy Bill of Corporate Welfare to the Oil and Energy Companies:
Energy Omnibus bill: Vote to adopt the conference report on the bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize a $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for “clean coal” programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. The bill would call for producers of Ethanol to double their output. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…
In June of 2004, with another loving rubber-stamp to the Bush Administration he voted for yet another Bush-Cheney Energy Bill of big Corporate Welfare to Big Oil and Energy with HR 4503 vote number 2004-241:
Vote to pass a bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize o $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for “clean coal” programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. It would add to the requirement that gasoline sold in the United States contain a specified volume of ethanol. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…
And what did Bush, Cheney, McConnell, and Exxon Eddie’s “vision” on Energy policy bring us? Record high gas prices and a recession. All the while men like Bush, Cheney, McConnell, and Exxon Eddie have become quite wealthy with their investments.
Next, in Jan. of 2007, we have Exxon Eddie once again voting his stock options and protecting the huge record profits of Big Oil on HR 6 vote number 2007-040:
Creating Long-term Energy Alternatives for the Nation (CLEAN) Act
Title I: Ending Subsidies for Big Oil Act–denying a deduction for income attributable to domestic production of oil, natural gas, or their related primary products.
Title II: Royalty Relief for American Consumers Act–to incorporate specified price thresholds for royalties on oil & gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
Title III: Strategic Energy Efficiency And Renewables Reserve–makes the Reserve available to accelerate the use of clean domestic renewable energy resources and alternative fuels.
This legislation seeks to end the unwarranted tax breaks & subsidies which have been lavished on Big Oil over the last several years, at a time of record prices at the gas pump and record oil industry profits. Big Oil is hitting the American taxpayer not once, not twice, but three times. They are hitting them at the pump, they are hitting them through the Tax Code, and they are hitting them with royalty holidays put into oil in 1995 and again in 2005.
It is time to vote for the integrity of America’s resources, to vote for the end of corporate welfare, to vote for a new era in the management of our public energy resources.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…
Finally, although we find this on his campaign website:
High energy costs weigh on every Kentucky family and that is why Congressman Whitfield has been focused on alternative energy solutions like clean coal technology, ethanol, bio diesel and coal gasification to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil.
http://www.whitfieldforcongres…
We have this vote on HR 3321 vote number 2007-0832 for investment in renewables:
H.R.3221: New Direction for Energy Independence, National Security, and Consumer Protection Act: Moving toward greater energy independence and security, developing innovative new technologies, reducing carbon emissions, creating green jobs, protecting consumers, increasing clean renewable energy production, modernizing our energy infrastructure, and providing tax incentives for the production of renewable energy and energy conservation.
Rep. PELOSI: This bill makes the largest investment in homegrown biofuels in history. We know that America’s farmers will fuel America’s independence. We will send our energy dollars to middle America, not to the Middle East.
Rep. TIERNEY: This bill incorporates the Green Jobs Act, which will make $120 million a year available to begin training workers in the clean energy sector. 35,000 people per year can benefit from vocational education for “green-collar jobs” that can provide living wages & upward mobility.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…
I think it is clear to see where Exxon Ed Whitfield’s priorities lie. They lie with the profits of the Big Oil Corporations he is invested in and not with the interests of the American people. We should be finding new solutions to old problems, not investing in the old ways that have failed.
It is time for Exxon Eddie to move on. He has held this seat for too long after promising to only serve two terms. He has been a constant vote against progress in Kentucky or anywhere else in America.
We have an awesome grassroots candidate who needs our support to unseat Exxon Eddie and expand our Congressional majorities. Her name is Heather Ryan. We desperately need the resources to get our message out to the 63% of registered Democrats in this district about the horrible record Exxon Ed Whitfield has done in their name.
Visit Heather’s site here:
http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/
Join our campaign of fighting for grassroots Democrat values here:
http://visitor.constantcontact…
Finally, please consider helping me in my bid to raise $1500 online for Heather by May 20. I am less than $100 from halfway to my goal.
http://www.actblue.com/page/am…
Whatever you do, and however you can do it, please support your fellow “Fighting Democrats” in Kentucky’s First District.
Best wishes Fellow Democrats!!
From The Hill:
“We have exceeded expectations on the recruitment front,” said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain. “Across the board, top-tier Republican candidates are running in districts that promise to be competitive in places like the Rust Belt, the Northeast, the upper Midwest and in the emerging battleground of the Southwest.”
Folks, Ken Spain needs your help. Clearly, he has forgotten the long list of recruitment failures that have plagued the House GOP this cycle.
SSP has some of the most knowledgeable commenters around. In fact, when it comes to downballot races, you guys are second to none. But folks, we’ll need each of you to really dig deep and help Ken out with a list of every GOP recruitment failure so far this cycle.
Let’s get to work!
Republican leaders play down the difficulty of finding willing candidates. Ken Spain, a spokesman for the House Republicans’ campaign committee, acknowledged the challenges in certain districts but said the party had done a good job of recruitment over all.
“We believe we have fielded one of the best Republican recruitment classes in quite some time,” he said.
Now we’re just getting beyond spin.