Month: April 2008

The filing deadline has passed in a lot of states.  That leads me to wonder, how many congressional races have no opponent?  Which Democrats? Which Republicans?

More below the fold

Here’s a list of states where the filing deadline has passed:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Illinois

Indiana

Idaho

Iowa

Kentucky

Maine

Maryland

Mississippi

Nebraska

New Jersey

New Mexico

North Carolina

Ohio

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Missouri

Montana

South Dakota

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

West Virginia

The 29  unopposed Democrats (the results in 2004 presidency and 2006 congressional races

AL-07 Kerry by 33, Davis unopposed.  

AR-01 Bush by 5, Berry by 38

AR-02 , Bush by 4, Snyder by 20

AR-04 Bush by 3, Ross by 50

CA-18, Bush essentially tied with Kerry, but Cardoza won by 30 plus

CA-28, a hugely Democratic district: Kerry won by 44, Berman by 55

CA-30, like CA-28: Kerry by 32, Waxman by 45

CA-31, Kerry by 55, Becerra was unopposed

CA-32, Kerry by 35, Solis unopposed

CA-37, Kerry by 38, Richardson by 42

CA-38 Kerry by 32, Napolitano by 51

IL-02  Kerry by 58, Jackson unopposed

IL-04 Kerry by 54, Gutierrez by 73

IL-05 Kerry by 28, Emanuel by 56

IL-07 Kerry by 67, Davis by 74

MO-01 Kerry by 50, Clay by 49

NJ-01 Kerry by 21, Andrews unopposed

NJ-06 Kerry by 14, Pallone by 39

NJ-08 Kerry by 18, Pascrell by 43

NJ-10 Kerry by 64, Payne unopposed

NJ-12 Kerry by 9, Holt by 31

OR-04 Kerry by 0.3%, DeFazio by 35

PA-14 Kerry by

39, Doyle unopposed

TN-06  Bush by 20, Gordon by 36

TN-08 Bush by 8, Tanner by 46

TN-00 Kerry by 44, Cohen by 43

TX-09 Kerry by 40, Green unopposed

TX-16 Kerry by 13, Reyes unopposed

WV-01 Bush by 16, Mollohan by 29

11 Unopposed Republicans:

AL-06 Bush by 59, Bachus unopposed

AR-03 Bush by 26, Boozman by 25

CA-19 Bush by 23, Radonovich by 21

CA-22 Bush by 38, McCarthy by 41

KY-05 Bush by 21, Rogers by 48

TX-01 Bush by 39, Gohmert by 38

TX-02 Bush by 37,

Poe by 33

TX-05 Bush by 34, Hensarling by 27

TX-11 Bush by 57, Conaway unopposed

TX-14 Bush by 35, Paul by 21

TX-21 Bush by 32, Smith by 36

Given what all these races were like in 2006, it’s likely that none would have been competitive, even if there were opponents.  But it’s still a lot easier to win with no opponent at all.  It’s also interesting that there are quite a few southern seats where Bush won in 2004, but the Democratic congressperson wins easily and has no opposition.  There aren’t any equivalents in the other direction: Where there’s no Democrat running, not only did the Republican congressperson have an easy win in 2006, but so did Bush in 2004

SurveyUSA (4/4-6, likely Democratic primary voters):

Steve Novick (D): 23%

Candy Neville (D): 12%

Jeff Merkley (D): 11%

David Loera (D): 6%

Roger Obrist (D): 5%

Pavel Goberman (D): 3%

Undecided: 40%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

With six weeks to go until Oregon’s primary, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley has some work to do in order to claim a victory here.  Part of Merkley’s deficit can be chalked up to the fact that his campaign had not yet begun airing TV ads when this poll was conducted, while Novick has already aired several quirky, attention-grabbing spots.  Merkley launched his air campaign today, so that should help him raise his name recognition.  The question is — with Obama and Clinton buying up chunks of airtime in advance of the May 20th primary, is Merkley at risk of getting swamped out by the presidential spotlight?  He has an awful lot of primary voters to introduce himself to in the coming weeks.

(H/T: Blue Oregon)

SurveyUSA (registered voters, 4/7):

Christine Gregoire (D-inc): 48%

Dino Rossi (R): 47%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

No surprises here.  Despite the tossup status in the polls so far, I’m feeling fairly optimistic here.  Gregoire has had a pretty steady first term, and Rossi will be playing in an unfavorable environment this year.

Well, it looks like Boehner is starting to take matters into his own hands and rectify some of Tom Cole’s incompetence.

More after the fold…

Full article from cq politics:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.

These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.

7/10 of the candidates were incumbents we ousted in the last election cycle.

• Michele Bachmann , Minnesota’s 6th District (North and east Twin Cities suburbs; St. Cloud). Bachmann was first elected in 2006 to succeed Republican Mark Kennedy, who lost his campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Amy Klobuchar . The Democratic nominee for November’s election will be either Bob Olson, a lawyer, or Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation commissioner. The latter candidate initially campaigned for the Democratic nomination in 2006 but later deferred to Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate who lost to Bachmann after also losing as the Democratic nominee against Kennedy in 2004.

• Vito J. Fossella , New York’s 13th (Staten Island; part of southwest Brooklyn). Fossella is the only House Republican who represents part of New York City. He saw his re-election percentage drop from 70 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2004, and then again to 57 percent in 2006 even though Democratic challenger Steve Harrison didn’t raise much money. Harrison, a lawyer, is seeking a rematch, though he faces a well-funded primary opponent in New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia.

• Sam Graves , Missouri’s 6th (Northwest – St. Joseph, part of Kansas City). Graves’ campaign for a fifth term may well be the toughest of his career. His Democratic opponent, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, is well-known and well-funded.

• Ric Keller , Florida’s 8th (Central – most of Orlando). Keller won a fourth term in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin over Democrat Charlie Stuart, a marketing executive who is one of several Democrats seeking the 2008 nomination.

• Anne M. Northup, Kentucky’s 3rd (Louisville Metro). Northup, who served in the House from 1997 through 2006, is challenging Democratic freshman Yarmuth, who unseated her by a margin of less than 3 percentage points. Northup hadn’t planned a bid to reclaim her seat this year, but she jumped in after the Republican she had been backing, lawyer Erwin Roberts, dropped out of the race to fulfill his military obligations. Northup sought a quick political comeback last year but lost a primary challenge to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Steve Beshear.

• Erik Paulsen, Minnesota’s 3rd (Hennepin County suburbs – Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth). Paulsen, a state representative, is the presumed Republican nominee in this suburban Minneapolis district, which retiring Republican Jim Ramstad is giving up after nine terms. The Democratic nominee will either be state Sen. Terri Bonoff or Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq War veteran.

• Bill Sali , Idaho’s 1st (West – Nampa, Panhandle, part of Boise). The strong Republican leanings of this district are indisputable, as President Bush took 68 percent of the vote there in his 2004 election. But Sali underperformed in his 2006 election for the then-open 1st District seat, in which he defeated Democrat Larry Grant by the underwhelming vote of 50 percent to 45 percent. Grant is seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination along with Walt Minnick, a businessman who lost as the party’s losing Senate nominee against Republican Larry E. Craig in 1996. Sali is opposed in the May 27 Republican primary election by Matt Salisbury, an Iraq War veteran.

• Jean Schmidt , Ohio’s 2nd (Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs; Portsmouth). Schmidt, who is seeking a second full term in a district that usually exhibits strong Republican leanings, faces a rematch of her exceptionally close 2006 race against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt won that contest by a margin of about 1 percentage point. In the primary elections that took place March 4, Schmidt was renominated with 57 percent of the Republican vote and Wulsin won with 58 percent on the Democratic side.

• Tim Walberg , Michigan’s 7th (South central – Battle Creek, Jackson). Walberg, a freshman, was elected in 2006 over Democrat Sharon Renier, a little-known and underfunded Democrat who lost by just 4 percentage points. The unexpectedly close outcome was influenced by a bitter Republican primary fight in which the very conservative Walberg unseated one-term GOP moderate Joe Schwarz. Renier is running again this year, though Democratic officials are rallying behind state Sen. Mark Schauer, a better-known and better-funded candidate.

• Darren White, New Mexico’s 1st (Central – Albuquerque). White is the sheriff of Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and which is the population base of a politically competitive district that Republican Heather A. Wilson left open to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. White is opposed in the June 3 primary by state Sen. Joseph Carraro. The four Democratic primary candidates are Michelle Grisham, a former state health secretary; Martin Heinrich, a former Albuquerque councilman; Robert L. Pidcock, a lawyer; and Rebecca Vigil-Giron, a former New Mexico Secretary of State.

It looks like Bob Schaffer just handed Democrat Mark Udall and the DSCC an explosive issue to clobber him with in the Colorado Senate race this year.  Reflecting on the issue of immigration, Schaffer told the Denver Post that he’s got a solution for the hot-button issue:

He pointed to the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. protectorate that imports tens of thousands of foreign textile workers, as a successful model for a guest-worker program that could be adapted nationally.  

“The concept of prequalifying foreign workers in their home country under private- sector management is a system that works very well in one place in America,” he said of the islands’ program. “I think members of Congress ought to be looking at that model and be considering it as a possible basis for a nationwide program.”

If the workplace conditions of Northern Marianas are Bob Schaffer’s ideal model for a foreign worker program in the United States, we should all be very, very afraid.  TPM Muckraker has a good backgrounder on the Northern Marianas (who retained the infamous Jack Abramoff as their chief lobbyist) here:

During the 1990s, Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) and Rep. George Miller (D-CA) were frequent critics of the sweatshop conditions used in factories in the Marianas that made clothes with the “Made in the USA” label for companies like Tommy Hilfiger USA, Gap, Calvin Klein and Liz Claiborne. In 1992, the Department of Labor sued five garment factories owned by Willie Tan and eventually fined the Tan companies $9 million — the largest fine they had ever imposed.

American officials and human rights advocates testified before congress that workers, 91 percent of whom were immigrants from China, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, were working below the CMNI minimum wage ($3.05), often seven days a week and up to 12 hours a day, and living in shacks behind barbed wire and without plumbing. Many workers also paid $5,000 to $7,000 in “recruitment fees” to gain employment, often with money borrowed from loan sharks who took all of their wages until the fees were paid back.

Are those the kinds of conditions that Schaffer wants to replicate on a “nationwide” level?  How about the forced abortions and sex slavery that many of the Islands’ immigrant workers are subject to?

The political stupidity of Bob Schaffer is mind-boggling.  Beyond mind-boggling.

(Big hat-tip to ColoradoPols for the scoop.)

You should taste the taste we got!

With the stinging recruitment loss of Biotech millionaire John Crowley, it looks like the GOP is falling back on Plan B — disgraced Goya Foods frat boy Andy Unanue:

“I just filed the petitions,” Unanue spokesman Mark Duffy said this morning as he returned to State Republican Committee headquarters from the Division of Elections office.

While Unanue was unavailable to talk to the press or pose for pictures, Duffy said he had more good news.

“He’s in the state,” Duffy announced.

Even as he remained a man publicly defined as a hard-partying nightclub owner without a New Jersey address, the millionaire businessman’s absence on a family trip to Vail did not prove a stumbling block to winning county support these last few weeks since Anne Evans Estabrook left the Republican primary race.

Unanue will face off with Ron Paul supporter and college professor Murray Sabrin and crypto-fascist state Sen. Joe Pennacchio for the GOP nod.  Oh boy-a!

From The Hill:

Some GOP insiders have bemoaned the NRCC’s recruiting shortcomings. One top GOP consultant said the effort has “been a disaster.”

“The approach to recruiting has been weak, and it’s driven by a staff that doesn’t know the districts they’re recruiting in,” the consultant said. “[Chairman Tom] Cole [Okla.] can’t do everything, and he’s been let down by those who serve him.”

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I thought I’d continue with the PVI vs. Vote Index project begun here and continued here and here. It seems like almost every permutation involving the different ratings methods (Progressive Punch, Progressive Punch Chips Are Down, ADA, and National Journal Composite) has been tried out now, so I wanted to try a new approach: focusing on particular important votes, presenting a matrix that shows who broke with the party on what, and throwing PVI into the mix. (If you’re like me, you constantly forget why you’re supposed to be angry at a particular representative, so it’s handy to have everyone’s black marks on one handy chart.)

I chose six votes to start with, three where Democratic discipline really seemed to break down (Iraq supplemental, FISA, and ENDA), and three where Republican discipline broke down (minimum wage, stem cells, and SCHIP veto override). “Iraq supplemental” and “FISA” are particularly difficult categories, because there have been many votes on each, and a lot of Dems have gone for more nuanced positions than can be encapsulated with one vote. For these categories, I chose the vote on each topic where Democratic discipline seemed to break down the most, and correspondingly, where the blogosphere engaged in the loudest and angriest freakout: HR 2206 Roll Call 425 on Iraq and S 1927 Roll Call 836 on FISA. (The final votes on these topics had much higher party unity.)

For each party, I have a table of how many times a representative voted against the party. Within each table, representatives are listed in order of PVI from highest to lowest. This doesn’t create as neat and tidy a relationship as we’ve been doing with the more thorough scoring approaches… but it shouldn’t take too much imagination to look at each table and form a qualitative judgment as to who’s fitting the district and who isn’t.

I’m also including representatives with no votes against the party but who are in districts in what we’ll call the danger zone (D+5 to R+5). These ones, maintaining discipline in the face of potentially hostile districts, are the ones we might think of as analogous to the ‘overperformers’ from previous diaries on this topic. (No one on the wrong side of the danger zone, i.e. Democrats in districts of R+6 or greater… has complete party unity.)

By way of analysis, note that the same underperforming cast of characters stands out here as in the more rigorously quantitative approaches to the PVI vs. Vote question: Lipinski, Marshall, Barrow, Artur Davis, Cooper, Costa. Likewise, the Republican overperformers (the ones theoretically vulnerable because of their wingnuttiness) also look about the same: Chabot, Walberg, Rogers (MI), Feeney, Roskam, Kline.

The good news is (and this was noted in previous diaries in this series): being in the majority is a real tonic for party discipline. Note how many more Republicans than Democrats broke with the party 3, 4, or 5 times. (Many of them are also in affluent suburban D+ districts and are feeling the heat… except for Todd Platts, who seems to have come out of nowhere with a new Club for Growth-related deathwish.) For the Democrats who broke the party line multiple times, they’re almost always members of the Blue Dogs and coming from rural southern or Midwestern districts (again, with the glaring exception of Lipinski).

Democrats

5 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Marshall	GA-08	R+8	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP

4 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Lipinski	IL-03	D+10	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
L. Davis	TN-04	R+3	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
McIntyre	NC-07	R+3	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
Shuler	NC-11	R+7	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
G. Taylor	MS-04	R+16	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells

3 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Barrow	GA-12	D+2	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Wilson	OH-06	D+0	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Tanner	TN-08	D+0	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Rahall	WV-03	D+0	Iraq, ENDA, Stem cells
Donnelly	IN-02	R+4	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Gordon	TN-06	R+4	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Melancon	LA-03	R+5	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Cramer	AL-05	R+6	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Peterson	MN-07	R+6	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Ellsworth	IN-08	R+9	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Lampson	TX-22	R+15	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Edwards	TX-17	R+18	Iraq, FISA, ENDA

2 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
A. Davis	AL-07	D+17	FISA, ENDA
Cooper	TN-05	D+6	Iraq, FISA
Costa	CA-20	D+5	Iraq, FISA
Berry	AR-01	D+1	Iraq, ENDA
Boswell	IA-03	D+1	Iraq, FISA
Snyder	AR-02	D+0	Iraq, ENDA
Ross	AR-04	D+0	Iraq, ENDA
Walz	MN-01	R+1	Iraq, FISA
Cuellar	TX-28	R+1	Iraq, FISA
Boyd	FL-02	R+2	Iraq, FISA
Stupak	MI-01	R+2	Iraq, Stem cells
Etheridge	NC-02	R+3	Iraq, FISA
Altmire	PA-04	R+3	Iraq, FISA
Mitchell	AZ-05	R+4	Iraq, FISA
Rodriguez	TX-23	R+4	Iraq, FISA
Bean	IL-08	R+5	Iraq, FISA
Boren	OK-02	R+5	Iraq, FISA
Salazar	CO-03	R+6	Iraq, FISA
Space	OH-18	R+6	Iraq, FISA
Mollohan	WV-01	R+6	Iraq, Stem cells
Hill	IN-09	R+7	Iraq, FISA
Chandler	KY-06	R+7	Iraq, FISA
Carney	PA-10	R+8	Iraq, FISA
Skelton	MO-04	R+11	Iraq, ENDA
Herseth	SD-AL	R+11	Iraq, FISA
Pomeroy	ND-AL	R+13	Iraq, FISA
Matheson	UT-02	R+17	Iraq, FISA

1 vote

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Towns	NY-10	D+41	ENDA
Clarke	NY-11	D+40	ENDA
Velazquez	NY-12	D+34	ENDA
Nadler	NY-08	D+28	ENDA
Wasserman Schultz	FL-20	D+18	Iraq
Emanuel	IL-05	D+18	Iraq
Andrews	NJ-01	D+14	Iraq
Weiner	NY-09	D+14	ENDA
Baca	CA-43	D+13	Iraq
Levin	MI-12	D+13	Iraq
Dingell	MI-15	D+13	Iraq
S. Davis	CA-53	D+12	Iraq
Kildee	MI-05	D+12	Iraq
Clyburn	SC-06	D+11	Iraq
D. Scott	GA-13	D+10	Iraq
B. Thompson	MS-02	D+10	Iraq
Hoyer	MD-05	D+9	Iraq
Berkley	NV-01	D+9	Iraq
Butterfield	NC-09	D+9	Iraq
Kaptur	OH-09	D+9	Stem cells
Reyes	TX-16	D+9	Iraq
M. Udall	CO-02	D+8	Iraq
Visclosky	IN-01	D+8	Iraq
Ruppersburger	MD-02	D+8	Iraq
Holt	NJ-12	D+8	ENDA
Schwartz	PA-13	D+8	Iraq
Gonzalez	TX-20	D+8	Iraq
G. Green	TX-29	D+8	Iraq
Higgins	NY-27	D+7	FISA
Dicks	WA-06	D+6	Iraq
Costello	IL-12	D+5	Stem cells
Kanjorski	PA-11	D+5	Iraq
Murtha	PA-12	D+5	Iraq
Michaud	ME-02	D+4	ENDA
Oberstar	MN-08	D+4	Stem cells
Sestak	PA-07	D+4	Iraq
Cardoza	CA-18	D+3	Iraq
Hinojosa	TX-15	D+3	Iraq
R. Larsen	WA-02	D+3	Iraq
Kind	WI-03	D+3	Iraq
S. Bishop	GA-02	D+2	Iraq
Baird	WA-03	D+0	Iraq
Giffords	AZ-08	R+1	Iraq
Ortiz	TX-27	R+1	Iraq
Mahoney	FL-16	R+2	Iraq
Gillibrand	NY-20	R+3	Iraq
D. Moore	KS-03	R+4	Iraq
Kagen	WI-08	R+4	Iraq
Spratt	SC-05	R+6	Iraq
Boyda	KS-02	R+7	Iraq
Holden	PA-17	R+7	Iraq
Boucher	VA-09	R+7	Iraq

0 votes

Rep.	District	PVI
Foster	IL-14	R+5
McNerney	CA-11	R+3
Arcuri	NY-24	R+1
J. Hall	NY-19	R+1
DeFazio	OR-04	D+0
Shea-Porter	NH-01	D+0
Doggett	TX-25	D+1
Hooley	OR-05	D+1
Obey	WI-07	D+2
B. Miller	NC-13	D+2
Yarmuth	KY-03	D+2
Perlmutter	CO-07	D+2
P. Murphy	PA-08	D+3
T. Bishop	NY-01	D+3
Hodes	NH-02	D+3
Klein	FL-22	D+4
C. Murphy	CT-05	D+4
Braley	IA-01	D+5
Hare	IL-17	D+5
Lo. Sanchez	CA-47	D+5

Republicans

4 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Castle	DE-AL	D+6	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Shays	CT-04	D+5	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Kirk	IL-10	D+4	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Gerlach	PA-06	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Dent	PA-15	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Reichert	WA-08	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Fossella	NY-13	D+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Ramstad	MN-03	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Pryce	OH-15	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Bono	CA-45	R+3	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Platts	PA-19	R+12	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

3 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
LoBiondo	NJ-02	D+4	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
H. Wilson	NM-01	D+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
B. Young	FL-10	D+1	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
McHugh	NY-23	D+0	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Davis	VA-11	R+1	ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP
Upton	MI-06	R+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
LaTourette	OH-14	R+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
English	PA-03	R+2	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
C. Miller	MI-10	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
Regula	OH-16	R+4	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Biggert	IL-13	R+5	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Capito	WV-02	R+5	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Freylinghuysen	NJ-11	R+6	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Gilchrest	MD-01	R+10	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Emerson	MO-08	R+11	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Walden	OR-02	R+11	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
D. Young	AK-AL	R+14	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

2 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Saxton	NJ-03	D+3	ENDA, Min. wage
Walsh	NY-25	D+3	Min. wage, SCHIP
P. King	NY-03	D+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Porter	NV-03	D+1	ENDA, SCHIP
Latham	IA-04	D+0	Min. wage, SCHIP
McCotter	MI-11	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage
C. Smith	NJ-04	R+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Ferguson	NJ-07	R+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Tiberi	OH-12	R+1	ENDA, SCHIP
Renzi	AZ-01	R+2	Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Murphy	PA-18	R+2	Min. wage, SCHIP
Turner	OH-03	R+3	Min. wage, SCHIP
Dreier	CA-26	R+4	ENDA, Stem cells
Buchanan	FL-13	R+4	Min. wage, SCHIP
Ros-Lehtinen	FL-18	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage
M. Diaz-Balart	FL-25	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage
Brown-Waite	FL-05	R+5	Min. wage, Stem cells
Kuhl	NY-29	R+5	ENDA, Min. wage
Wolf	VA-10	R+5	Min. wage, SCHIP
Petri	WI-06	R+5	Min. wage, SCHIP
L. Diaz-Balart	FL-21	R+6	ENDA, Min. wage
T. Johnson	IL-15	R+6	FISA, Min. wage
Hobson	OH-7	R+6	ENDA, SCHIP
Duncan	TN-02	R+11	Iraq, Min. wage
W. Jones	NC-03	R+15	FISA, Min. wage
Simpson	ID-02	R+19	Min. wage, SCHIP

1 vote

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Knollenberg	MI-09	D+0	ENDA
Weller	IL-11	R+1	Min. wage
P. Ryan	WI-01	R+2	ENDA
Keller	FL-08	R+3	Min. wage
Hayes	NC-08	R+3	Min. wage
M. Rogers	AL-03	R+3	Min. wage
Bilirakis	FL-09	R+4	Min. wage
Bilbray	CA-50	R+5	Stem cells
LaHood	IL-18	R+5	Min. wage
Forbes	VA-04	R+5	Min. wage
Calvert	CA-44	R+6	Stem cells
Rohrabacher	CA-46	R+6	Stem cells
Goode	VA-05	R+6	Min. wage
McKeon	CA-25	R+7	Stem cells
McCrery	LA-04	R+7	ENDA
Hulshof	MO-09	R+7	Min. wage
McMorris	WA-05	R+7	SCHIP
Campbell	CA-48	R+8	ENDA
Stearns	FL-06	R+8	Min. wage
Shimkus	IL-19	R+8	Min. wage
H. Rogers	KY-05	R+8	Min. wage
Heller	NV-02	R+8	Stem cells
Wamp	TN-03	R+8	Min. wage
J. Lewis	CA-41	R+9	Stem cells
Ehlers	MI-03	R+9	Min. wage
Issa	CA-49	R+10	Stem cells
Mack	FL-14	R+10	Stem cells
Whitfield	KY-01	R+10	Min. wage
Alexander	LA-05	R+10	Min. wage
J. Peterson	PA-05	R+10	Min. wage
Boozman	AR-03	R+11	Min. wage
Rehberg	MT-AL	R+11	SCHIP
Goodlatte	VA-06	R+11	Min. wage
Bonner	AL-01	R+12	Min. wage
Flake	AZ-06	R+12	ENDA
G. Davis	KY-04	R+12	Min. wage
Poe	TX-02	R+12	Min. wage
Everett	AL-02	R+13	Min. wage
Schmidt	OH-02	R+13	Min. wage
Granger	TX-12	R+14	Stem cells
Paul	TX-14	R+14	Iraq
Barton	TX-06	R+15	Stem cells
Marchand	TX-24	R+15	Min. wage
Aderholt	AL-04	R+16	Min. wage
Crenshaw	FL-04	R+16	Min. wage
L. Smith	TX-21	R+16	Min. wage
Coble	NC-06	R+17	Stem cells
J. Moran	KS-01	R+20	Min. wage
Bachus	AL-05	R+25	Min. wage

0 votes

Rep.	District	PVI
Chabot	OH-01	R+1
Walberg	MI-07	R+2
M. Rogers	MI-08	R+2
Feeney	FL-24	R+3
Roskam	IL-06	R+3
Kline	MN-02	R+3
Reynolds	NY-26	R+3
Mica	FL-07	R+4
Weldon	FL-15	R+4
Manzullo	IL-16	R+4
Camp	MI-04	R+4
Garrett	NJ-05	R+4
Gallegly	CA-24	R+5
Putnam	FL-12	R+5
Bachmann	MN-06	R+5
Graves	MO-06	R+5

This should be considered a work in progress, with improved versions likely to be published in the future, so please feel free to suggest 1) better ways of displaying this data (I intended to make the tables sortable, but SSP’s code doesn’t seem to allow that), and 2) what other 2007-08 votes are particularly important as litmus tests. There were a few others I was considering instead of ENDA, like the Employee Free Choice Act (not enough Dem defections) and the Peru trade agreement (not a clear liberal/conservative split… more of an internationalist/populist split in each party), so I’ll certainly consider adding additional categories.

UPDATE: Link to Google Docs for a copy of the spreadsheet here. I threw in Progressive Punch scores in case anyone wants to correlate votes on these big 6 against the broader scores.

Anzalone Liszt for the Don Cazayoux campaign (March 16-20, likely special election voters):

Don Cazayoux (D): 49%

Woody Jenkins (R): 44%

(n=500)

So far, things are looking good for Don Cazayoux.

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week.  I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference.   I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago.   I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening.   Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.  

Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts.  As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”.  I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”.  All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College.  Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.  

Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce.   This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat.   Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate.  Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following.  Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy.   It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign.  It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.

The longest day of the week was Saturday.  I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM.  I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning.  The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets.  I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation.  I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello.  We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM.  Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate.  Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district.  The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements.  I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet.  Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign.  And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening.  A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown.  It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days.  The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life.  Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign.  April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known.  Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

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