Month: April 2008

A new poll conducted by the Capital Survey Research Center shows state Sen. Parker Griffith, an oncologist from Huntsville, with an early lead over the presumptive GOP nominee, advertising executive Wayner Parker (4/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Parker Griffith (D): 48%

Wayne Parker (R): 32%

Undecided: 21%

(MoE: ±4%)

(Source: House Race Hotline)

On top of Griffith’s $115,000 fundraising haul in his first week of the race, this is encouraging news for Democrats as they seek to hold this open seat that Bush carried by 54-44 and 60-40 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  

Wayne Parker twice tried to win this seat against incumbent Democrat Bud Cramer; he nearly won in 1994, but lost decisively in ’96.  With the GOP failing to attract a stronger challenger (such as potential turncoat Democratic state Sen. Tom Butler), it appears that Griffith is starting with a clear edge here.

SSP will try to obtain a copy of the polling memo and post it when we can.

The race to defeat frosh Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly is finally starting to heat up:

Barely a week earlier, an estimated 4,000 people packed Mishawaka High School’s east gymnasium to witness democracy in action when Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton visited.

On Saturday night a grand total of six people showed up to the school’s auditorium to see democracy in action as two 2nd District Republican candidates for U.S. Congress debated each other.

Even with the low turnout candidates Tony Zirkle and Joe Roush took the night seriously and easily chewed up the 90 minutes allotted for the debate. (Emphasis added)

Watch your back, Donnelly!

A sign of the times?  According to a GOP operative quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the NRCC is promising support to LA-06 special election nominee Woody Jenkins only if he meets certain “financial benchmarks”:

A Republican aide said the NRCC will meet with Mr. Jenkins’s campaign this week to discuss strategy and to outline financial benchmarks that the campaign will have to meet to receive the campaign committee’s support. They are currently polling in the district as well. “We are aware of the challenges we face,” said a House Republican aide, noting that a Jenkins victory “is doable, but it’s difficult.”

Now, I find it pretty hard to believe that the NRCC would give up on an R+6.5 Southern open seat so easily, even with Jenkins’ shady ties to former KKK leader David Duke figuring prominently in just about every post-runoff news article on this race.    But if the GOP wants to game the expectations that winning this district — one that hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress since the early 1970s — is an uphill fight for them, well, that’s their choice to make.  But with Democrat Don Cazayoux outraising Jenkins ($532K vs. $290K through March 16), talk like this is not exactly inspiring to the national donors that Jenkins needs to attract.

This is Travis Childers, the Democrat running for the open seat left behind by Roger Wicker (R) when he was appointed to the Senate.

In his quest for the seat, Childers has fought through two elections — the November general primary and run-off — to get to where he is today.  Childers will face off with Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) in the April 22 special election to fill the seat.  The catch?  The losers of the primary run-off, Democratic state Rep. Steve Holland and former GOP Tupelo Mayor and TVA Chair Glenn McCullough (as well as two fringe-party candidates) will be on the ballot, although both have ceased campaigning for the job.  

The long list of candidates on the ballot, and their lack of party designation, means that there is a very real chance that this election will go to a run-off on May 13.  (Meaning that, to fill this seat, voters in MS-01 will have had to vote four times: the primary, the run-off, the special election, and the special run-off.)

So can Childers make a real race of this?  The traditional prognosticators — CQ, Cook (friend of SSP), et al — currently rate the seat as “Safe Republican”.  It’s hard to fault them for that — after all, this is an R+10 Southern seat that Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004.  But I subscribe to a different view, and the Swing State Project currently puts this race at the more competitive rating of Likely Republican.

Over at DailyKos, RBH had a great diary on the dynamics of the race, which I encourage you to check out if you haven’t already.  Allow me to build upon his summary to give you a list of reasons why Childers has an outside chance of an upset here:

1. The right profile.  Childers has served as Chancery Clerk in Prentiss County since he was first elected in 1991.  A self-described “Jamie Whitten Democrat” (after the longtime congressman who represented this district from 1941 to 1995), Childers calls himself a “pro-life, pro-business and pro-guns” candidate, but retains a strong streak of economic populism to tap into the eastern portion of the district’s New Deal/TVA heritage.

   At the age of sixteen, having just lost his father, Childers went to work full-time to help support his mother and younger sister, and put himself through college.  Childers earned his real estate license at the age of 19 and built his own business from the ground up.

   In his campaign ads, Childers has targeted the rising cost of living, crumbling state of the economy, and unfair trade deals as issues he wants to address in Congress.  On the campaign trail, Childers’ populism rings loud and clear:

   When one panelist asked about high gas prices, Childers told her he has no sympathy for Exxon Mobile but a lot for the working-class families struggling to pay their gas and heating bills. Several adults in the crowd murmured their approval.

   In the primary, Childers was the only candidate — Democrat or Republican — to favor withdrawal from Iraq:

   He was the only one of five candidates — three Republicans, two Democrats — at a campaign stop in Nesbit last week who said point-blank that U.S. troops don’t belong in Iraq. […]

   Childers said he favors coming up with a plan to withdraw troops over 12 to 18 months and leave the Iraqis to fight among themselves, as they have for thousands of years.

   He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

   “We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

   Childers is the only candidate in the special election who understands the struggles of working families, and this should be an advantage to him as he tries to capture votes in rural Northeast Mississippi.

2. The enthusiasm gap.  In the April 1st runoff, 36,168 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, while 33,135 GOP ballots were counted — a net turnout advantage of 3000 votes for Democrats.  Some of this might be due to old Dixiecrat habits dying hard, and a small amount could possibly be attributed to the unintended consequence of Rush Limbaugh’s “operation chaos” — GOP voters who requested a Democratic ballot for Mississippi’s Presidential primary were not allowed to cast Republican ballots in the runoff, but it’s hard to say how much of a factor that was here.




3. A little help from his friends.  The Democratic primary was an unusually cordial affair, as Childers and state Rep. Steve Holland considered themselves friends and did not let a competitive race come between them.  In fact, Holland is enthusiastically supporting Childers in the special election.  From the front page of Holland’s campaign website:
   

   I want you to know that Travis Childers is a dear friend of mine. I support him 1,000,000 %. April 22 is the next election that decides who will fulfill the remaining term until the November Election. I want you to help me put Travis in Washington on April 22nd.and keep him in office through the November election.

   If the Democratic family is in strong shape, the same can’t be said for the GOP here.  Davis mercilessly savaged McCullough’s record as TVA chair in his campaign ads on his way to a narrow primary win, and not surprisingly, McCullough’s campaign issued this non-endorsement endorsement:

   He also urged fellow Republicans to “unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi – Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now.”

   But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was “absolutely not” a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.

   When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, “That’s a good way to put it.”




4. Regional rivalry.  Davis won the GOP primary on the strength of his base in DeSoto County, a suburb of Memphis in the Northwestern portion of the district, while losing the vast majority of the rest of the district to McCullough.  On the one hand, Davis has a powerful base — DeSoto’s population is 150,000 and is only growing stronger.  However, there is a palpable sense of concern in the rest of the district that the old population anchor of Tupelo, once considered the power center of this district, and other small cities and rural counties could be left with a “representation deficit” with the suburban-minded Davis in Congress.  From the Memphis Commercial Appeal:
   

   “This victory was a siren in the night to the eastern half of the district that Tupelo is not the capital of the First District anymore,” said Marty Wiseman, director of Mississippi State University’s John C. Stennis Institute of Government. “DeSoto County can no longer be shuttled off to the corner of the room. This runoff election and Davis’ win demolished that image.”

   Might this be of concern to the citizens of Tupelo and other areas of MS-01?  If so, Childers, with his Northeast base, is in a position to capitalize on the rift.

Make no mistake — this seat is an uphill climb for Childers, but it by no means can be written off completely.  With his support in county courthouse circles, his economic populism, and a regional rift to play to his advantage, Childers can make this seemingly-sleepy special election a race to watch.

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-02 – R+19,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

But three races go to the uncontested in 2008 list:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-19 – R+10, (our candidate withdrew)

CA-22 – R+16,

So 407 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 173 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 173

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 9

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Florida, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 35 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 80% of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 7 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the rest fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

AK-AL:

     Don Young (R-inc): ~$164K raised; <$948K CoH ($142K spent on legal bills)

     Gabrielle LeDoux (R): $150K CoH

     Diane Benson (D): $48K raised; $45K CoH

     Ethan Berkowitz (D): “significantly more” than $124K raised

AK-Sen:

     Ted Stevens (R-inc): $540K raised; $1.3M CoH

PA-10:

     Chris Hackett (R): $119K raised + $340K personal loan; $175K CoH

VA-10:

     Judy Feder (D): $310K raised; $710K CoH

AL-05:

     Parker Griffith (D): $115K raised (in one week)

AZ-03:

     Bob Lord (D): $220K raised; $630K CoH

1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of… | Raiders of the…

Looks like New Jersey Dems have just dodged a bullet:

Despite being poised to enter the Republican Senate primary race for the second time in two weeks, Princeton biotech executive John Crowley once again withdrew his name from consideration today.

“John was deeply impressed with the outpouring of support for his potential candidacy for the US Senate. Many people both locally here in New Jersey and nationally had been encouraging him to run over the past week, but given his tremendous level of responsibility to his family, his company and to the US Navy, he’s decided not to enter the US Senate race this year,” said Crowley’s friend and advisor, Bill Spadea. “I know there was a lot of legitimate anticipation that John would enter this race we’ve been upfront with the many obligations he has, and his decision had to come down to his family.”

Crowley had a compelling personal story, and a huge net worth that could have been put to use to fund his campaign.  But alas, the GOP really can’t catch a break this cycle.

Dry those tears, John Ensign.  Disgraced Goya Foods frat boy Andy Unanue is apparently reconsidering his decision to drop out of the race now the Crowley has pulled the plug on his bid.

Could it be that among the Senate races this year, that New Jersey would be more likely to flip than Louisiana?

With Crowley in, Sen. Lautenburg’s lackluster ratings come home to roost.  He could have a tough time agasinst a strong bio candidate.

Some considerations for this race:

1.  How will the Democratic priamry impact the fall election?  The worst result for Democrats is a realtively narrow (<15%) win for Lautenburg.

I can see quite a few crossovers to Crowley.  

2.  Would Rob Andrews be a stronger candidate?

From my distant view,  I would think so.  Now I know that Andrews is not as progressive, but he’s younger and would be better suited to take on Crowley, especially if Crowley is pushed to the right.  But he has to overcome the Democratic establishment and a 30+ deifict to win the primary.

3.  Where does Crowley stand on the issues?  Is he going to run as a social moderate, but fiscal conservative?  

4.  Much will depend on McCain’s strength in NJ.  If he carries the state or comes close, Crowley wins.  He is McCain’s candidate and fit his “Service to America” theme.

In short, if this wasn’t supposed to be a Democratic year, I’d rate this Lean Republican.  So I think it’s a tossup.

Continuing through the alphabet:

South Carolina has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline was March 31, primary is June 10

South Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline was March 25, primary is June 3

Tennessee has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Filing deadline was April 3, primary is August 7

District: SC-01

Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston

Representative Henry Brown (R)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 60-38

2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)

Bush margin 2004 61=39

Notes on opponents little money

Current opponents A primary, then either

Linda Ketner or Ben Frasier.  No fundraising info on either Democrat.  Davis has about $1 million COH

Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)

Assessment

District: SC-02

Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia

Representative Joe Wilson (R)

First elected 2001

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Michael Ellisor ran both times and raised little

Current opponents A primary then either Blaine Lotz or Rob Miller . No funding info on either Democrat.  Wilson has about $225K COH

Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-03

Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA

Representative Gresham Barrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Jane Dyer

Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-04

Location Northern SC, bordering NC

Representative Bob Inglis (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 70-29

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ted Christian ; Paul Corden ; or Bryan McCanless. No fundraising info on the Democrats.  Inglis has about $300K COH

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: SC-05

Location Northeastern SC, bordering NC

Representative John Spratt (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ralph Norman raised $1.4 million to Spratt’s $2.7 million; in 2004, Albert Spencer raised little

Current opponents Albert Spencer (no fundraising info)

Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: SC-06

Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston

Representative James Clyburn (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents Gary McLeod ran twice and raised little

Current opponents Nancy Harrelson

Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment safe

District: SD-AL

Location You know, South Dakota.

Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)

First elected  2004 (in a special election)

2006 margin 69-29

2004 margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Larry Diedrich raised $2.5 million to Sandlin’s $4 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Chris Lien has raised about $119K and has almost all of it as COH; Sandlin has $650K COH

Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans), 99th most Republican

Assessment probably safe

District: TN-01

Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC

Representative David Davis (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents Rick Trent raised only $77K to fight for this open seat

Current opponents Rob Russell , Michael Donihe. No funding info on either Democrat.  Davis has about $1 million COH

Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 50th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: TN-02

Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville.  Borders NC

Representative John Duncan (R)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 79-19

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents John Greene ran both times, and raised little

Current opponents David Hancock, Robert Scott

Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-03

Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again

Representative Zach Wamp (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents Doug Vandagriff, no funding info.  Wamp has about $900K COH

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-04

Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border

Representative Lincoln Davis (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents  In 2004, Janice Bowling raised $300K to Davis’ $1.1 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Monty Langford, Don Strong. No funding info on the Repubs; Davis has about $240K COH

Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-05

Location Nashville and suburbs

Representative Jim Cooper (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Gerard Donovan, Vijay Kumar.  Donovan has $3K COH, no info on Kumar, Cooper raised about $200K and has about $100K COH

Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)

Assessment safe

District: TN-06

Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY

Representative Bart Gordon (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents No Republicans

Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)

Assessment Free ride

District: TN-07

Location Another strange shaped district.  Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border

Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents Bill Morrison raised less than $100K

Current opponents A primary, and then either Randy Morris or James Tomasik.  No info on either Democrat…Blackburn has about $1 million COH

Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 74th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: TN-08

Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY

Representative John Tanner (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 74-26

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents  James Hart, who lost badly in 2004

Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-09

Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS

Representative Steve Cohen (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-22-18 (22 for an Independent)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Notes on opponents Mark White raised $227K to Cohen’s $619K

Current opponents  A big primary battle, but no Republicans

Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 60th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe for a Democrat

RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLA.com

11:23PM: What an ideal match-up this is.  Democrats have an affable candidate whose socially conservative credentials suit his district well, while the Republicans are stuck with this fool:

A Jenkins-Cazayoux face-off would be a tough fight.

Cazayoux has raised more money than Jenkins and does not carry the political baggage, but Jenkins is a well-known personage in Louisiana and served 28 years in the state House. Jenkins narrowly lost a 1996 Senate race against Democrat Mary Landrieu.

In 2002, the Federal Elections Commission fined Jenkins for illegally concealing his purchase of a phone bank tied to former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. In the 1980s, Jenkins was aligned with Oliver North, a figure in the Iran-Contra scandal, through a charity Jenkins ran called the Friends of the Americas, which sent medical supplies to Central America.

With press like that, it’s hard not to feel good about this one, isn’t it?

11:16PM: 511 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux: 56.79% (19,756); Jackson: 43.21% (15,034).

Jenkins: 61.96% (15,162); Calongne: 38.04% (9,308).

11:07PM: 488 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux still has a 58%-42% lead.  Let’s tally up the ballots so far: 32,980 Dem and 23,596 GOP votes.  Pretty nice.

10:55PM: Haw haw!  Jackson now has 13,401 votes to Jenkins’ 12,845.  The NRCC has some work to do here, methinks.

10:52PM: 447 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 58%-42% lead over Jackson.  Here’s a fun fact: the loser of tonight’s Democratic primary, Michael Jackson, has nearly as many votes as the winner of tonight’s Republican primary, Woody Jenkins.  (12,822 to 12,672 so far)

10:38PM: 424 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux is sitting pretty with a 60%-40% lead.  28,619 Democratic and 20,534 Republican ballots have been counted so far.  Lookin’ good.

10:32PM: 365 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux’s lead has tightened to 64%-36%.  With the outstanding precincts being from the East Baton Rouge Parish, expect this margin to tighten up a bit, but it won’t be enough to make too huge of dent.

10:25PM: Man, it amazes me to say this, but I can’t believe that the Louisiana GOP fielded this crop of sadsack losers to defend a vulnerable open seat like this one.

10:14PM: 309 precincts reporting.  Total votes so far: 20,343 Democratic and 16,403 Republican ballots.

10:09PM: 258 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux’s 70%-30% lead is holding steady, while Jenkins is up 60%-40% over on the GOP side of the fence.  17673 Democratic and 13577 GOP votes have been counted so far.

9:58PM: 175 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a commanding 70%-30% lead over Jackson, and Jenkins is holding steady on the GOP side.  So far, 12654 Democratic and 9549 Republican ballots have been counted.

9:51PM: 111 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux is up 71%-29% over Jackson, while Jenkins is leading 61%-39% in the GOP primary.

9:45PM: 70 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 68%-32% lead over Jackson, with most of Baton Rouge still counting ballots.  Let’s look at turnout: So far, 6306 Democratic votes and 3696 Republican votes have been counted.  Sure, some of this could be attributed to Dixiecrat overhang, but I’ll take it.

9:37PM: 22 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 64%-36% lead, while Jenkins leans Calongne by roughly the same margin.  Democrats are also opening up a significant turnout gap here.

9:26PM: With 2 of 512 precincts reporting, Cazayoux has a 73%-27% lead over Jackson.  Jenkins is at 63% on the GOP side.  Turnout is roughly even so far.

Polls are now closed in the run-off elections to decide the Dem and GOP nominees in the special election to replace retiring Rep. Richard Baker (R).  We’ll be tracking the returns as they come in.

State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has raised and spent more money than his primary opponent, state Rep. Michael Jackson, but Jackson’s base is in the more populous Baton Rouge while Cazayoux hails from the more rural Pointe Coupee Parish.  Still, Cazayoux has to be considered the favorite tonight for the Democratic nomination.

On the GOP side, both candidates are decidedly second tier (and that’s being generous): Christian activist and community publisher Woody Jenkins (famous for, uh, losing elections), and lobbyist Linda Calongne.

As Jeremiah notes in the comments below, turnout will be worth watching tonight.