Month: June 2008

Goodwin Simon Victoria Research for Larry Joe Doherty (5/27-31, likely voters):

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 34

Mike McCaul (R-inc): 43

(n=400)

On the generic ballot, the the GOP has a mere four-point advantage over the Democrats in this R+13 district, with a 45-41 congressional preference. The fact that McCaul is actually underperforming the GOP’s generic strength here is eye-opening.

But that’s not McCaul’s only measure of weakness in the poll. A full 47% of respondents don’t even recognize his name, and his job rating is a stunningly mediocre 28% positive, 29% negative (and 42% unsure). What’s more, a massive 70% of voters rate President Bush’s job performance negatively, and 69% of the district’s voters think the country is seriously on the wrong track. All of this gives a big opening for a well-funded Democratic challenger like Larry Joe Doherty to exploit.

SSP first noted this race back in June 2007, when we made the case that the Democratic trend of the district and McCaul’s mediocre performance in the 2006 elections might put this one in play. We’ve had this district on our list of races to watch for a while, and we upgraded our rating of this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican last week after an independent poll was released showing Doherty trailing McCaul by six points.

This race has some real potential to heat up.

The Mellman Group for Mary Landrieu (5/17-20, 12/2007 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 49 (48)

John Kennedy (R): 33 (35)

(n=600)

This poll stands in contrast with a recent Rasmussen poll showing a three-point race. The main difference in the limited information we can find from the cross-tabs is in Kennedy’s name recognition:

The Mellman poll has Landrieu being viewed favorably by 60 percent of respondants, compared to 28 percent negative. Kennedy’s positive/negative rating was 42-12 percent.

By contrast, the Rasmussen poll shows both candidates about equally known. In it, Landrieu has a 59-37 percent positive/negative ratio, compared to Kennedy’s 57-31 percent.

While out of line with Rasmussen’s numbers, the poll isn’t far off from a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey from April that showed Landrieu leading by 50-38.

We’ll be seeing a lot more polls from this state in due course.

(H/T: Pollster.com)

The following is a review of Oregon’s primary and a preview of Oregon’s fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).

The Oregon Primary is nearly all in the books, so I thought it was appropriate to offer a final review of it and preview the fall campaigns.  I posted a more detailed preview a few weeks ago here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/5/12544/25866/676/530200.

The major source for my numbers is the SOS’s election results page: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view.

The Oregon Primary, by the numbers:

Total Number of Votes Cast: 1,170,553, or 58.04%

Turnout in the 2006 Primary: 38.58%.

Democratic Turnout: 75.66% (a new record for an Oregon primary, smashing the previous record of 71.3% set during the 1968 Presidential Primary).

Number of Votes for Barack Obama: 375,000.

Number of Votes for Hillary Clinton: 260,000

Number of Votes for John McSame: 286,000.

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Hillary: 800 votes (Coos County).

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Obama: 53,000 votes (Multnomah County).

Jeff Merkley’s Margin of Victory over Steve Novick: 16,000.

Number of undervotes in the US Senate Primary: 90,000, or well above Merkley’s margin of victory.  By my estimate, Novick would have netted 3-5,000 or so more votes in Multnomah County alone had everyone cast ballots, assuming his margin of 52-40% had held.

Approximate cost per vote for Mike Erickson in the CD 5 Republican Primary (through the end of April only so the number is going to be higher than this): $23.

Approximate cost per vote for Kurt Schrader in the CD 5 Democratic Primary (through the end of April only): $1.70.

Closest Race: Ballot Measure 53, the “original certification” puts the margin at 450 votes out of 978,000 cast, or .06%.  It is currently being recounted and results will be known by 6/24.

Undervotes in this race: 192,000, or more than 425 times the margin.

Enough fun with numbers, now for a quickie Oregon General Election Preview:

Race-Rating Key:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Over 20% margin.

When discussing a race I list the incumbent, or failing that the incumbent party, first.  

Candidates are indicated by the following symbols:

Inc-Incumbent.

Int-Interim Incumbent, someone who was appointed to fill out a term.  Oregon law allows the political party that controls a seat to basically appoint a replacement in case of resignation and so it is not uncommon for state legislators to resign so their successor can run as an incumbent.  Appointments are valid until the start of the next legislative session in a year following a general election.  Therefore, those appointees who have two years left on their term following an election must face a special election for those two years.   For example, Brad Avakian (D) resigned his State Senate seat and was replaced by Suzanne Bonamici (also D).  Since Avakian was not up for re-election until 2010, Bonamici will face a special election for the last two years of Avakian’s term this fall.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The latest polling shows Obama with a solid lead in the 10% range.  Expect him to win by this much or more.  Barr might hurt McCain here because many of the urban Rs are libertarians who aren’t particularly fond of him.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: The latest poll shows Smith with a 9% lead but under 50%.  Merkley will definitely benefit from Obama’s strength here.  For now, his biggest weakness is most certainly his cash disadvantage but its nothing he can’t overcome.

Outlook: Leans Smith.

Labor Commissioner (Nonpartisan) (2-year interim):

Brad Avakian (int) is facing only token opposition, namely this nut, who likes to put curses on his opponents: http://www.getenergized.com/vote.html.  

Outlook: Safe Avakian.

Attorney General:

John Kroger (D) is unopposed and even won the OR R’s nomination by write-in.

State Treasurer:

Candidates: Ben Westlund (D) vs. Allen Alley (R).

Summary: Against someone else Alley might have a chance, but Westlund has friends on both sides of the aisle.  This one is going to be a rout.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Kate Brown (D) vs. Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Brown is going to kick Dancer’s ass, period.  Dancer has no real base to speak of and has received only a lukewarm reception from Oregon Rs.  This is an important race this year, obviously, since the next SOS will help with redistricting.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Brown.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (Wu-D)-Likely to Safe Wu.

District 2 (Walden-R)-Likely to Safe Walden.

District 3 (Blumenauer-D)-Safe Blumenauer.

District 4 (DeFazio-D) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Sen. Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman (and hypocrite) Mike Erickson (R).

Summary: Schrader is a well known and respected legislator in this district and his wife is the current chair of the Clackamas County Commission.  Erickson, on the other hand, lost the endorsements of both Oregon Right to Life and the Oregon Farm Bureau, two groups without which no Republican can really hope to win.  I think he has enough cash to keep this race within 10% but not to win.

Outlook: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

In brief:

Current Composition: 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18 D, 12 R (1 D to R (Westlund), 1 I to D (Gordly).

Races by Rating:

Safe: 7D, 5R.

Lean/Likely Hold: 2R, 1D.

Lean Takeover: 1D (Ben Westlund’s Seat in Central Oregon looks likely to flip to the Rs.  Put it this way, if they can’t win that seat, the Oregon Rs are really really in horrible shape.

Oregon House:

In brief:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 23 R, 5 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Races by Rating:

Safe/Likely: 25D, 10R.

Lean Hold: 6D, 13R.

Tossup Districts: 5 (all Rs, specifically: Berger (R-inc, Independence/Monmouth), Wingard (R-open, Wilsonville), Bruun (R-inc, West Linn, Kennemmer (R-open, Canby) and Lindland (R-open, Corbett).

Lean Takeover: 1R (Minnis’s old seat, now as an open seat, should flip to the Ds).

Let me know what you think.

Rasmussen (6/11, likely voters, 5/13 in parens):

Jim Slattery (D): 39 (40)

Pat Roberts (R-inc): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4%)

Roberts’ are a very strong 60-33, making the closeness of this race more surprising. The previous three polls we’ve seen of this race gave Roberts a 12-point lead over Slattery, so this one isn’t too far off. While this race will be an uphill fight for Slattery, it definitely is worth watching. If things get close enough, this might be one state where the DSCC decides to flex its financial advantage.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 47-37 in the same poll.

DemocracyCorps has an exciting survey (pdf) of 46 Congressional races of seats currently held by Republicans.

In Tier 1 races, which Democrat Anne Barth’s challenge of Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito falls under, the Democratic candidates lead the Republican candidates 51-42.

On issues, from Iraq to the economy, the Democratic stance is favored over the Republican.

For example on the Iraq war, here’s the results for the Democratic position similar to Barth’s versus The Republican position identical to Capito’s.

Here’s Barth’s position:

“We are in our fifth year of the Iraq war with no strategy to win the peace and bring our brave soldiers home.  There have been over 4,000 American lives lost, more than a trillion dollars spent, with no end in sight.  While I support our troops, I oppose an open-ended commitment to the war in Iraq.

I will work toward a responsible plan to bring our brave men and women home with honor.  

We must focus on training the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security soon, set benchmarks for the Iraqi military, and give more emphasis to diplomatic strategies.  

The war in Iraq has had a serious impact on our military, and our brave men and women are stretched thin by extended deployments. In Congress, I will work to strengthen America’s national security and refocus on the terrorist threats around the globe that are currently ignored.”

Here’s Capito’s last public statement

“In recent months we’ve seen hopeful signs of progress on security and localized political reconciliation in Iraq.  We want Iraqis to take control and we must continue to apply pressure to Iraq’s national leaders, but now is not the time to pull the rug out from under our troops who are performing admirably and achieving results.”

I point those out to show the similarity between the way the question was asked in the survey.

[800 Respondents]

Q.61 (SPLIT D) Now I’m going to read you what the candidates for Congress are saying on Iraq. Regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the Democratic statement or the Republican statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

The Democratic candidate says the war in Iraq has cost us trillions of dollars while our economy has weakened, and has made America less secure. We must strengthen America’s security by starting to reduce our troops in Iraq in a responsible way, force the Iraqi government to use its oil money to pay for reconstruction and work with other nations to bring stability. We need to invest the money we are currently spending in Iraq to restore our military, deal with Afghanistan and strengthen America’s own economy and security. But the Republican candidate for Congress wants to keep our troops in Iraq for at least another 5 years.

OR

The Republican candidate says there has been military and political progress in Iraq, and that to withdraw now would cost more in lives and create more instability in the Middle East. If we follow John McCain’s lead to see our commitment through until the end of his first term, by 2013 America will have welcomed most of our troops home and the Iraq war will have been won. Though some violence will still occur, Iraq will be a functioning democracy with al Qaeda defeated and the U.S. maintaining just a small military presence that does not play a direct combat role. But the Democratic candidate for Congress wants to pull our troops out precipitously and give al Qaeda a big victory.

Total

Democratic statement strongly – 44

Democratic statement somewhat – 15

Republican statement somewhat – 13

Republican statement strongly – 26

(Don’t know/refused) – 3

With the numbers rounded that gives 59 percent supporting the Democratic statement and 39 percent supporting the Republic view. Note too how favorably the question was even worded to tilt support for the GOP position.

And keep in mind this was a poll done in Republican held districts.

Hat tip to RandySF for first tipping me to the Democracy Corps poll.

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
VA (Open)	LA (Landrieu) NM (Open)	CO (Open) NH (Sununu)	AK (Stevens) MN (Coleman) MS (Wicker) NC (Dole)	ME (Collins) OR (Smith)

Races to Watch:  

     KS (Roberts)

     KY (McConnell)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

Mississippi (Wicker): Likely Republican to Leans Republican

After former Mississippi AG Mike Moore passed on the race to replace retired Sen. Trent Lott, few were bullish on this contest as a Democratic pickup opportunity, even after former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove jumped into the fray. But recent polls suggest that Musgrove’s statewide profile is giving him an early advantage over interim Sen. Roger Wicker, who previously represented Northeast Mississippi in the House. Coupled with Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot energizing the state’s large African-American constituency (roughly 37% of the population), Musgrove picked the perfect year to try a statewide comeback. What’s more, the lack of party identification on the special election ballot could hurt Wicker with “low-information” GOP voters.

Still, Wicker’s huge early financial edge cannot be discounted, as it has allowed him to get on the airwaves early in order to raise his name recognition in Southern Mississippi. Wicker’s biggest weakness (his lack of a statewide profile) also represents room for growth.

This will be a tightly-watched contest, and it won’t be the GOP lock that some had assumed it’d be after Haley Barbour worked around the law to push the special election to November.

Mason-Dixon polls the battle for Nevada’s 3rd CD (6/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dina Titus (D): 42

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±6.6%)

If this race is as close as the poll suggests, then Porter is in a lot of trouble. He never fared this badly in the polls against Democrat Tessa Hafen, whom he narrowly beat by a 48-47 margin in the 2006 cycle. Indeed, the closest poll of that race by Mason-Dixon came days before the election and showed Porter leading by 46-39. The fact that Titus is as close as she is only six weeks after launching her candidacy is both a testament to her high profile and Porter’s weaknesses, including his glaringly bad 36-56 job performance rating.

Recent registration drives in the state have produced a 20,000-strong Democratic voter registration advantage in the 3rd district, which used to be more evenly divided. This may prove to be Porter’s toughest year yet.

Over in the 2nd CD, the story is a bit different:

Jill Derby (D): 39

Dean Heller (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±6.6%)

In her rematch bid against freshman incumbent Heller, Jill Derby is facing an uphill climb in this R+8.2 district. Heller’s approval rating, at 52-44, could be stronger but still is in much better shape than Porter’s.

Derby’s candidacy will help spread the GOP thin, but turning Nevada completely blue will be a tough task.

SSP currently rates NV-02 as Likely Republican and NV-03 as Leans Republican.

I just noticed this small item from Roll Call this past week, and thought it was worth posting.

Blogs Gaining Credibility at Senate Committees

June 13, 2008, 4:27 p.m.

When Charles Schumer (D) was elected to the New York State Assembly in the mid-1970s, some of his older colleagues were still getting used to the television technology, the Senator joked at a recent meeting with Roll Call reporters and editors. Now, the Empire State’s senior Senator counts blogs as part of his daily information appetite.

Schumer’s aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee include a number of blogs in his daily packet of media clippings, which also include relevant stories from the day’s newspapers and television shows. But the DSCC chairman is also known to read them on his own.

Items from the Huffington Post, Daily Kos, America Blog, Talking Points Memo, Swing State Project and Senate Guru are usually included, as well as state-specific blogs in 2008 Senate battlegrounds.

Blogs are also getting more attention at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

GOP aides scan national blogs such as Red State, Townhall and Hot Air for information, as well as state-specific blogs, such as the Dead Pelican (Louisiana), Minnesota Democrats Exposed and the Politicker Web sites in states with Senate races.

Just a couple of election cycles ago, including blogs alongside newspaper and television clippings would have been unthinkable, but this is just one example of how the flow of information is changing and affecting political campaigns.

– Nathan L. Gonzales

http://www.rollcall.com/news/2…

If Chuck Schumer reads the site, I think it speaks well to SSP’s quality.