Month: June 2008

Father’s Day — Our Day to Relax

Today being Father’s Day, I’m getting extra special treatment from Amanda.  I was treated to breakfast this morning and afterwards, Kelly and Amanda headed to the community pool in Clearfield so I could relax for a couple of hours.  For all the fathers, soak up the special treatment today because tomorrow it’s back to solving problems.

There are several important events to note from the past week.  On Tuesday evening I attended the monthly meeting of the Centre County Democratic Committee.  Centre County Chair Dianne Gregg along with Greg Stewart from the Obama campaign hosted a great meeting.  The people in attendance are ready to go to work for the entire Democratic ticket and there was much enthusiasm and excitement about what can be accomplished in 2008.  Also, voter registration and voting trend numbers are very positive for the Democratic Party in Centre County.  

On Friday, Kelly and I were in Bellefonte to take in the atmosphere of the Bellefonte Cruise.  Our original plan was to take a classic car and participate in the event, but, when a downpour went through Clearfield around 4 PM, we decided to leave the sports car in the garage.  We did get the chance to walk around downtown Bellefonte and talk with people and see some great cars.  The only downside was several people commented that participation appeared to be down from prior years.  You have to wonder how much the $4 per gallon price of gas affected the turnout.

On Saturday morning, Kelly, Amanda and I were back in Centre County to attend a fundraising breakfast arranged by Keith Bierly.  I want to thank the people who signed on to host the event: Elizabeth Goreham, John and Sharon McCarthy, Joe French, Tom and Barbara Thwaites, Bill Cahir and Benson Lichtig  It was a tremendous event with attendance from people we had already met during the primary election campaign and many new friends who are joining on to support our campaign.  Thanks to everyone who came out and I greatly appreciate all the questions, comments and suggestions that were made to help with the direction of the campaign as we move forward.

Thanks to the Hosts of the State College Breakfast – L-R, Henry Guthrie – Campaign Chairman, Mark McCracken, Hosts Elizabeth Goreham, Sharon and John McCarthy, Barbara and Tom Thwaites, Joe French.

The rest of the day Saturday was busy as we attended a flea market / car show in Bigler at the historic Super 322 Drive-In, spent several hours at DuBois Community Days and eventually ended up in Houtzdale to attend a dinner event.  

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Events for the Coming Week – June 16th to 22nd:

Tuesday June 17th – State College, the Chamber of Business and Industry of Centre County will be hosting a luncheon and debate with both candidates for the 5th Congressional District.  

Thursday, June 19th from 11 AM to 3 PM, Open house at the recently expanded Murmac Farms in Bellefonte PA.  Thursday, June 19th as Clearfield County Commissioner, I will be attending the LMIP hearing held by Pennsylvania DEP for the proposed Chest Township landfill.  

Friday, June 20th, Kelly and I are tentatively scheduled to attend the Pennsylvania Federation of Democratic Women’s 81st annual convention in Altoona.  

Saturday, June 21st, Wellsboro, Tioga County – Laurel Festival from 10 AM and Parade at 2 PM.  

Sunday June 22nd, State College attending 2 house parties hosted by Art Goldschmidt at 1173 Oneida Street from 3 to 5 PM and at a second location to be determined later from 5:30 to 7:30 PM.

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Pins, Pens, Stickers and Magnetic Bumper Signs Available:  We have McCracken for Congress pins, pens, lapel stickers and magnetic bumper stickers available for anyone who would like them.  Please email the campaign with requests for these items.  

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Fundraising:  We would like to remind everyone that the FEC quarterly report deadline is coming up June 30th.  It is important to show that the campaign is making progress raising funds for the fall campaign.  Our message is strong but we need to mount a competitive media campaign after Labor Day.  Please visit our website www.mccrackenforcongress.com if you would like to donate online via ActBlue.com.  We really appreciate the support we are receiving.  

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Important Upcoming Event:  We will be holding a McCracken for Congress dinner in Clearfield on Thursday July 17th 5:30 PM at the Lawrence Township Fireman’s Social Hall on Mill Road in Clearfield.  Mark your calendars and plan to attend this event.  

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Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Because it’s never too early to look ahead, Public Policy Polling tested Republican Sen. George Voinovich’s strength in two hypothetical 2010 match-ups. Let’s check the score (5/17-18, likely voters):

Tim Ryan (D): 33

George Voinovich (R-inc): 33

Undecided: 34

Betty Sutton (D): 32

George Voinovich (R-inc): 37

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±3.6%)

If Voinovich’s term expired this year, it’s clear that he’d be in a Mike DeWine-style world of trouble. Ohioans seem to have little patience for the Senator, giving him an abysmal 31%/39% job approval/disapproval rating.

Tim Ryan has been frequently touted as a future statewide candidate for Democrats, but Betty Sutton is a newer name on the speculation scene. One potential candidate that PPP did not test is perennial loser and heiress Capri Cafaro. I highly doubt she would ever make it out of a statewide primary against a top-tier Democrat, though.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 50-39 in the poll.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)

In the open seat race in OR-05, which several months ago was actually supposed to be hotly contested, one more domino fell in place for Kurt Schrader. And this one’s actually a bit of a surprise: last Thursday, he got the endorsement of the Oregon Farm Bureau, one of the few remaining power bases for state Republicans. This is especially important in the 5th, which is where most of Oregon’s agricultural production is concentrated.

Republican Mike Erickson is now running without either of two of the most important endorsements a Republican in Oregon can have: the Farm Bureau, and Oregon Right to Life (which instead called for him to drop out after allegations that he previously paid for a girlfriend’s abortion).

Part of this may have to do with Schrader being a veterinarian and an occasional ally of farmers in the state senate, part of this may have to do with the perception that Erickson was fatally wounded by Kevin Mannix’s last-minute slime-bombing in the primary. But a lot of it seems to simply turn on the Farm Bureau’s acceptance of a near-term future where the Democrats dominate Washington:

Don Schellenberg, a farm bureau lobbyist, insisted that Erickson’s electability issues didn’t influence the farm bureau. In fact, he even said that the farm bureau thought Schrader could get more done because the Democrats will almost certainly retain control of Congress.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Public Policy Polling just released an Ohio survey showing Sen. Obama with a big lead over Sen. McCain, 50-39.  While this is tremedous news, PPP also polled potential 2010 Senate match-ups below the fold which are probably of great interest here.

George Voinovich approvals:

Approve 31%

Disapprove 39%

31% approval for an incumbent and a long-time Ohio political figure (he was also Mayor of Cleveland then Governor)?  That is bad.  But it gets better.

In a potential 2010 Senate race between Sen. Voinovich and Rep. Tim Ryan:

Sen. George Voinovich 33%

Rep. Tim Ryan 33%

In a potential 2010 Senate race between Sen. Voinovich and Rep. Betty Sutton:

Sen. George Voinovich 37%

Rep. Betty Sutton 32%

I realize 2010 is a long ways away, but these are awful numbers for Voinovich.  He is at 33 percent and tied with Tim Ryan, and barely ahead of Betty Sutton who is serving her first term in Sherrod Brown’s old seat.  I am not sure why PPP only polled Reps. Ryan and Sutton, and not Reps. Wilson and Space, but I figure as this was primarily a presidential poll, they did not want to ask a lot of Senate 2010 questions.  

Voinovich is clearly vulnerable as things stand.  If the rumors about Ryan going for the Senate in 2010 are true, the incumbent could be endangered.  

Though I would quickly add that the poll is skewed to the Democrats, as the cross-tabs show it is made up of 55% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and the rest indies.  

Link: http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Thanks for reading.

Love,

The Swing State Project

SurveyUSA (6/10-12, registered voters, 4/30-5/1 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 40 (42)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)

Undecided: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

The numbers contrast with a recent poll by Rasmussen that pegged this race at 48-45 for Coleman, but they’re a bit closer to the seven-point Coleman lead in a Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll from May.

SUSA has also polled a number of other ballot possibilities, including the presence of Jesse Ventura and former interim Sen. Dean Barkley on the ballot:

Al Franken (D): 31

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41

Jesse Ventura (I): 23

Undecided: 5

Al Franken (D): 37

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 48

Dean Barkley (I): 8

Undecided: 8

SUSA also tested former Democratic candidate Mike Ciresi in the same match-ups, but he doesn’t fare much better than Franken, trailing Coleman by 10 points in the head-to-head.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

(H/T: Minnesota Mike)

Doolittle and McClintock sitting in a tree…

John Doolittle, the retiring congressman who is under investigation for his ties to jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff, appears likely to campaign for state Sen. Tom McClintock, the Republican nominee for Doolittle’s Roseville-area seat.

“We’re talking about doing a couple of events and we’re putting them together,” said Doolittle spokesman Dan Blankeburg. Blankeburg declined to provide any further details, adding that the two sides had only talked in what he called “conceptual terms.” […]

Stan Devereux, a spokesman for McClintock, confirmed that the campaign had set up a meeting to discuss Doolittle’s support for McClintock.

McClintock cozying up with the corrupt incumbent that voters were desperate to turf before he announced his retirement? P-E-R-F-E-C-T.

Rasmussen (6/12, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 60 (55)

Jim Gilmore (R): 33 (37)

(MoE: ±4%)

What an absolutely hopeless race for the GOP. These numbers really do say it all:

Warner’s favorability ratings have also improved. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 70% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 24%. Gilmore’s numbers are 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 45-44 in the state.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

(H/T: ChadInFL)

Sometimes a poll just speaks for itself

Democrat Mark Warner has widened his lead against Republican Jim Gilmore in the race for Virginia’s senate seat. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Warner earning 60% of the vote while Gilmore attracts 33%.

Last month, Warner enjoyed an eighteen-point lead. This represents the sixth consecutive survey to find Warner leading by double-digits, as well as his strongest lead to date. Before falling back in this survey, Gilmore had consistently polled between 37% and 39% percent. Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner an 89.9% chance of winning this race in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Warner’s favorability ratings have also improved. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 70% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 24%. Gilmore’s numbers are 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

I cannot recall a time when a Senate candidate lifted the rest of the ticket, but with numbers like those, you have to wonder what kind of impact he may have on the presidential, VA-11 and VA-02 elections. How blue can VA get?