Month: June 2008

Rasmussen (6/25, likely voters, 5/22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 41 (49)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 48 (44)

(MoE: ±4.5)

So Lunsford comes back down to earth — or rather, it becomes even more clear that Rasmussen’s May poll was an outlier. However, the numbers are still pretty good, with McConnell failing to crack the 50% mark.

On another, but related note: One thing I didn’t realize yesterday about the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Millionaire’s Amendment, was that the ruling only applies to House campaigns:

The ruling pertained only to House campaigns, but the Senate has a very similar rule that experts say will likely be struck down as soon as it is challenged.

In Kentucky, such a ruling could have large-scale implications for the Senate race. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who like Gillibrand is one of his chamber’s most prolific fundraisers, is facing a wealthy self-funder in businessman Bruce Lunsford (D).

Lunsford’s campaign could ostensibly challenge the Senate’s version of the rule, preventing McConnell from tapping his donors for contributions several times the normal limits.

Lunsford’s campaign was noncommittal Thursday but didn’t discount its legal options.

Sure, Lunsford would be given a boost if he could spend freely and not raise Mitch’s contribution limits, but the optics of some rich dude going to court in order to re-write campaign finance law to his advantage are not so good — and it still might take months for his case to get anywhere.

The option is on the table, though.

In 2004 and 2005 Smith voted against protecting our servicemen and servicewomen from bankruptcy. In 2005, George Bush signed into law harsher bankruptcy rules for American facing heavy levels of debt. Chris Smith voted against measures against extending special bankruptcy protections to deployed servicemen and servicewomen. [Vote # 107 2005, Vote #9 2004]

This year, roughly half of New Jersey’s National Guard is being actively deployed to Iraq. According to recent data, over forty percent of Guardsman and Reservists lose income when they leave their civilian jobs for active duty. Many reservists left thinking they would be deployed for 6 months and have ended up staying for a year or even longer and may be shipped out again. Additionally, many military families face difficult financial challenges. Over 20% of military families report having received WIC aid or food stamps from the government. [Los Angles Time 5/16/05; Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation Military Families Survey March 2004]

More after the jump.

Instead of offering reasonable protections to members of the military, Chris Smith voted to raise his salary by $32,600 since 1999. [CRS: Salaries of Members of Congress Updated January 8, 2008; 1999 Vote #300; 2000 Vote #419; 2001 House Vote #267; 2002 House Vote #322; 2003 House Vote #463; 2004 House Vote #451; 2005 House Vote #327; 2006 vote #261; 2007 Vote #580]

“While Chris Smith was busy raising his own salary he was also denying bankruptcy protection to servicemen and servicewomen who are taking a pay cut to fight for their country. They deserve an explanation,” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico.

This kind of vote is exactly why we need to elect Josh Zeitz and bring Chris Smith back to New Jersey. I know you know that already, so if you can volunteer, please email me at: ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. To learn more about Josh and his stance on the issues, please visit his website.

Stuart Rothenberg, May 21, 2008:

Nor does the Mississippi 1st district result mean that “there is no district that is safe for Republican candidates,” as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said recently. That’s just silly hyperbole and something the Maryland Democrat undoubtedly will be embarrassed to have said.

NRCC Communications Director Karen Hanretty, June 25, 2008:

“This is a challenging environment,” she said. “Any Republican running for office has to run basically on an independent platform, localize the race and not take anything for granted. There are no safe Republican seats in this election.”

The Associated Press has a story on a recent self-administered post-mortem by House Republicans following the back-breaking special election losses of seats in Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The verdict? GOP candidates lost because they could not overcome the “negative perception of the national party.”

Gee, you don’t say?

But the report also included an interesting nugget on some early DCCC expenditure plans for this fall. The DCCC has booked some advertising time in advance for three key races:

The DCCC has reserved $2.1 million for advertising for a seat in New York City in which Republican Rep. Vito Fossella intends to retire. Fossella, who is married with children, recently acknowledged fathering a child out of wedlock.

Democrats also said they will spend $1.2 million in the Portland, Ore., area, hoping to hold the seat of Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley, who is retiring.

The third target is the seat held by Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, where Democrats said they had reserved nearly $700,000 in advertising time.

Tom Cole has criticized the DCCC in the past for reserving time this far in advance, saying that such moves tip the committee’s hand. But I like the aggressive buy planned in New York’s 13th. If Staten Island Republicans are having a hard time recruiting a candidate now, how much harder is it going to be when prospective candidates (of which Guy Molinari assures us there are still a couple in existence) see that $2.1 million ad buy coming down the pipe?

I’m not as convinced that Kurt Schrader needs that much help, as Mike Erickson is seriously damaged goods at this point, but I’m sure the DCCC can scale back their ad time at their discretion.

Rasmussen (6/24, likely voters, 5/27 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (47)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove still pulls even with Wicker despite having a poorer favorability rating (47-43 to Wicker’s 56-32), probably due to Musgrove being better known as a former Governor. Still, Wicker has begun putting his healthy cash-on-hand lead to good use by airing ads in Southern Mississippi, where he is largely unknown.

Here’s a bright spot from the poll which might give us hope for Mississippi’s future: Voters between ages 18-29 favor Musgrove by a whopping 68-27 margin. Wow. Conversely, voters 65 years and older prefer Wicker by a 60-34 margin. Let’s hope that Barack Obama’s candidacy can energize young Mississippians.

Bonus finding: Speaking of Obama, McCain still only has a 50-44 lead in Mississippi.

UPDATE: (by Crisitunity) The same poll also covered incumbent R Thad Cochran vs. ex-state rep. Erik Fleming in MS-Sen-A (the regularly scheduled Senate election). No surprises: Cochran is up in that one, 59-32.

I’m not kidding here: Doug Lamborn, freshman incumbent, is facing off against Jeff Crank, whom he defeated in the 2006 primary in this safe R district to replace retiring Joel Hefley. He’s also facing off against 2006 primary candidate ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. (Lamborn won in 2006 by consolidating the wingnut vote, helped along by the Club for Growth.) An internal poll gives the lay of the land in this race:

David Hill Research (R)/Wilson Research Stragies (R) (5/27-29, likely voters):

Doug Lamborn (R-inc.): 51

Jeff Crank (R): 27

Bentley Rayburn (R): 13

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Now I know what you’re thinking: boy, if those two ‘mainstream’ candidates could somehow combine their votes, they’d be pretty competitive with Lamborn. Turns out that Crank and Rayburn were thinking that, too. The poll was commissioned by both camps as part of their rather unusual gentleman’s agreement on who would get to go the distance against Lamborn:

Republican 5th Congressional District candidates retired Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn and Jeff Crank signed a do-or-die agreement last month setting the conditions under which the weaker of the two candidates would drop out of the primary race against Congressman Doug Lamborn….

They agreed to stand by the results of a poll of 400 respondents scheduled to start May 27.

They’ve run into a minor hitch, though: Rayburn is refusing to abide by the poll’s results, as the two campaigns have devolved into a battle royale over methodological minutia and paying for the poll. Even if Rayburn does fall by the wayside, this can’t be helping Crank’s chances.

The Colorado primary is Aug. 12.

The Texas Lyceum (6/12-20, likely voters):

Rick Noriega(D): 36

John Cornyn (R): 38

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Big John is in a big world of hurt, if this is to be believed. 38% for an incumbent, with 24% undecided, spells trouble. (I haven’t heard of Texas Lyceum before, but this is an independent, not internal, poll. One caveat is that their partisan split is 32% Republican and 44% Democrat, which seems high for Texas even factoring in switches caused by the Dem primary.)

As a bonus, this poll shows McCain leading Obama in Texas by only 5, 43-38, with Barr and Nader each drawing 1.

H/t WoodyNYC.

The Rick Noriega campaign has sent out a fundraising email citing a recent poll that shows him trailing the incumbent Big John Cornyn by only 2%, among adults and with a large undecided vote.

more below the fold

Link to the source:

http://www.texaslyceum.org/med…

Freshman U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega in the poll, but the margin is slim and a large number of voters haven’t made up their minds. Cornyn had the support of 38% of the likely voters in the survey, to Noriega’s 36%, with 24% saying they’re not committed to either candidate.

Oh, you were probably wondering about that other race, too.

Republican John McCain would beat Democrat Barack Obama in Texas if the race were held now. But a significant number of Texans said they haven’t picked a favorite yet. Among likely voters, McCain had the support of 43% of those polled to 38% for Obama. Libertarian Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader had about 1% each. One of every six voters – 17% – said they haven’t decided who will get their vote in November.

Obviously they didn’t lean on the leaners, but that’s O.K. with me this early in the campaign. (It’s from June 12-20, with 1,000 respondents, 8 of 10 said they were registered to vote.)

I’m really excited to see so many voters with an open mind on this race. Lessee, now all Noriega needs is $20 million for a massive media effort. He just might get the money. A poll that shows him trailing by only two points and Obama within five, that makes Texas a real battleground state.

It’s only one poll, I know, I know. But I like it!

Good news and not so good news.

Quinnipiac (6/17-24, likely voters):

Mark Udall (D): 48

Bob Schaffer (R): 38

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Al Franken (D): 41

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 51

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Franken pulls even with women voters (45-45), but loses men by a 57-37 margin. Independents also favor Coleman by 55-35. The poll also shows Franken in trouble among those living in union households, where he is tied with Coleman at 47-47. There’s still lots of time on the clock, but Franken has his work cut out for him, even if Obama is leading in the state by 54-37 in the same poll.

Udall is in much better shape, earning a 54-27 margin among independents and only losing males by three points (43-46), while winning women voters by 53-32.

Public Opinion Strategies for the US Chamber of Commerce (late May):

Jeff Merkley (D): 34

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 38

John Frohnmayer (I): 11

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ?)

This poll is a bit dated, as the inclusion of Frohnmayer clearly shows. Frohnmayer’s left-of-center campaign was expected to siphon more votes from Merkley than Smith, so this poll might have been even more favorable to Merkley if it was a head-to-head match-up.

It’s very encouraging — 38% is an atrocious performance for an incumbent — but I’d like to see some more pollsters dip their toes into this race.