Month: July 2008

Just as we were all settling into the idea that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen's victory in the Senate race this fall was a given, along comes a Granite State poll with some sobering news:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 46 
John Sununu (R, inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Why is this happening?  Has Shaheen not been running enough advertisements?  Have donors been loath to give money to Shaheen's campaign, assuming that this would be a repeat of Casey-Santorum '06, already in the bag?  I worry that these numbers may reflect a complacency in the Democratic base, one that could come back to haunt us on Election Day, and not just in New Hampshire.  Your thoughts?

UPDATE (James L.): I think the answer to the question that CC poses in the title is “no”. I think it’s important to take a look at Miss Laura’s analysis of UNH’s shoddy methodology, including their wildly gyrating sample — one that became 1.6% less Democratic and 3.9% more Republican since April. Shaheen is the only candidate in this race who has gone up on the airwaves with advertisements, and her fundraising has been stellar.

Legislative Body	Composition
OK-Senate TN-Senate PA-House IN-House MT-House ME-Senate NY-Senate OR-House MT-Senate NV-Senate WI-Assembly TX-House MI-House IA-House OH-House TN-House DE-House WI-Senate AZ-House AK-Senate IL-House	24-24 16-16-1 102-101 51-49 50-49-1 18-17 32-30 31-29 26-24 11-10 52-47 79-71 58-52 53-47 53-46 53-46 22-19 18-15 33-27 11-9 67-51

We’re going to try something new here at Swing State Project: a list of competitive state legislature races for 2008. However, we aren’t breaking them down into the tossup/lean/likely framework that you’re familiar with. Unlike Senate and House races, where there is abundant polling and fundraising information to help us make informed decisions, state legislatures are jigsaws made up of hundreds of different races, most of which we know precious little about. Therefore, we’re simply listing the closest legislative bodies, starting with the ones that are tied and working downward based on percentage of seats held by the majority party.

There are a few legislative bodies that are close enough to be on this list, but aren’t included because they’re elected in off-years (Louisiana House, 53 D/49 R/1 I/2 V) or everyone gets elected all together in 2010 (Michigan Senate, 17 D/21 R).

This list makes a few of these legislative bodies look to be at more risk of flipping than they actually are. For instance, the Tennessee Senate isn’t likely to flip back to us this year, as we’re facing the potential loss of Democratic held open seats in GOP-leaning rural areas due to retirement. Conversely, Democrats in the Oregon House are likely to strengthen their position because of Republican retirements in suburban Dem-leaning seats. Indiana Democrats also seem optimistic about their ability to hold the razor-close Indiana House.

Likewise, there are chambers where reality might place them a little higher on the list. Most prognosticators, for instance, would agree that the New York Senate flipping to Democratic control is all but a done deal at this point, what with Majority Leader Joe Bruno already having hit the eject button and several GOP old-timers in strongly Democratic seats running on fumes. Similarly, there’s a lot of optimism about retaking the Wisconsin Assembly.

Also, there is a handful of states where the number of seats needed to flip, and the small number of constituents per seat, make it possible that anything can happen. (Consider the New Hampshire House of Representatives in 2006. The GOP controlled 62% of the seats, making it look safe. The Democrats flipped 90 seats (out of 400… NH has by far the largest state legislature) to take firm control. No one saw that coming, proof that anything can happen at this level.)

Alaska may be a prime example, where Dems only need to flip two seats to take control of the Senate… and with indictments cutting a swath through the Republican caucus in the Senate, the popular Governor now facing a mini-scandal of her own, and potentially big Obama coattails, it may be the year to make it happen. The Senates in both North and South Dakota also need only a few flipped seats to change hands, and, again, with Obama coattails, it’s possible; the same applies to the perpetually-close Montana House.

As stated during last month’s state legislature overview, though, useful links about state legislatures are few and far between in the blogosphere, so we need our readers to help be our eyes and ears. If you have any further insights into any of these races or helpful links, please share in the comments.

(Cross-Posted at MyDD, Open Left, and Daily Kos)

This weekend, we saw once more that no matter what happens in Iraq, there is no end in sight to this war unless we demand it.

For the people of Congressional District 18 in South Florida, getting out of the war in Iraq is a top priority.

www.voteTaddeo.com

For years, George Bush and his cronies – like my opponent, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen – said that American troops would redeploy from Iraq when the Iraqi people asked us to.  Last Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked us to leave.

The out-of-touch Washington Republicans responded strangely, with George Bush speaking of “time horizons.” John McCain flip-flopped on his original position, and said that he knew better than Iraq’s democratically elected prime minister what the Iraqi people really wanted.

Bush-Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my opponent, says nothing. Her silence is deafening.  For years, she has rubber-stamped President Bush’s failed Iraq war strategy unquestioningly.  Now she stays quiet, and doesn’t even mention Iraq on her website.

W’s Brother, Jeb Bush, was Ros-Lehtinen’s first campaign manager – in 1989

Ros-Lehtinen’s incumbency allows her to be the ranking member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.  From that position, she forces her right-wing agenda into every element of our country’s foreign policy.

Ros-Lehtinen Uses Her Voice to Silence Other Women Who Need Help

Ros-Lehtinen is a leading proponent of the global gag rule, which denies millions of women at home and around the world access to life-saving affordable health care and sex education they require.

On the Foreign Affairs Committee, Ros-Lehtinen is the senior disciple of the Bush Doctrine of senseless, pre-emptive war in Congress.  She remains smug and unrepentant for her lockstep support of the war.

Annette at the Democracy for America-Miami Memorial Day Service

I believe it is time for Iraqis to take responsibility for the security of Iraq and to bring our troops home. The war in Iraq is costing American taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars a day. That is money we desperately need here at home to invest in our schools, bring down health care costs, protect Social Security, and work towards energy independence. I will stand up for these priorities in Congress.

We can end this war. I am proud to be a Democrat, and I am proud to endorse the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. After years of a mis-guided war, Democrats must lead the way.

Ros-Lehtinen rubber-stamps Bush’s Iraq policy every step of the way, and she joins McCain in wanting a war in Iraq without end. I attended Netroots Nation last weekend, and I felt the real desire for change across the country.  Change is more than a cliché in 2008.  It’s obvious that our country is going in the wrong direction, and that more of the same is not enough to put our nation back on the right track.

I’ve out-raised Ros-Lehtinen in the first two quarters, and my district is the most Democratic and most progressive of the three  seats at play in South Florida.  I am honored by the great support I’ve received from my community, and also from the Netroots.  I am honored to have been endorsed by Democracy for America and, as of yesterday, Blue America

After seven years of failed policies, we are in a recession, health care costs are rising, and we are in a war without end. I know America needs a new beginning. We need greater investment in renewable energy, an end to subsidies for the big oil companies, and affordable health care for children and seniors.

I am a successful small-business owner, and I have a business plan to win this campaign.  We are focused and disciplined, and I will defeat Ros-Lehtinen this November.

I ask for your continued support as I take on a 18-year incumbent with a long record of voting against families and against our men and women in uniform.

Thank you, and I welcome any questions and comments,

Annette Taddeo

A poll from University of New Hampshire Survey Center that showed Shaheen leading Sununu 46%-42% also came with half the people polled in CD-01.

University of New Hampshire Survey Center (7/11-20) 240 people (MoE 6.4%)

Bradley – 46%

Shea-Porter – 40%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Next, an internal poll from the Harris campign that should probably be taken with a grain of salt (as the link says – High MoE + Poll Taken in one day)

Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates for Harris (7/15) 300 people (MoE 5.65%)

Harris – 44%

Kratovil – 28%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

I would take both polls with a grain of salt because I doubt Sununu is only down four points in the NH-Sen race.  

MD-01 Fundraising round-up

Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised — $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…

NH-01 Fundraising round-up

New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…  

Finkelstein & Associates for Andy Harris (7/15, registered voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 28

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5.7%)

A different internal poll taken for Frank Kratovil in May had the race slightly closer, at 43-34. For what it’s worth, between the Finkelstein poll’s high margin of error, its single day range and its sample of registered (and not likely) voters, I think I prefer the Garin-Hart-Yang numbers.

Kratovil has the geographical advantage of being the only candidate in the race from the district’s Eastern Shore, whereas Harris’ base is in the Baltimore suburbs. But this race will instantaneously get more interesting if Kratovil could manage to score a fall endorsement from Wayne Gilchrest, the longtime moderate incumbent whom Harris defeated in the GOP primary. Many of Gilchrest’s staffers are already working for the Democrat’s campaign, so perhaps it could happen.

Don’t be alarmed by the title; the link is work-safe.

“Foul-mouthed attacks on anyone he disagrees with. Tasteless, sexist jokes. Writing all that juicy porn.”

It’s Norm Coleman’s newest ad against Al Franken. I’m just left shaking my head. On the one hand, this is such a cliched and overly broad exaggeration of how Washington (both parties, I’m afraid) visualizes the swing-voting blue-collar slob demographic that I have to hope this blows up in their faces. On the other hand, the ad goes right at Franken’s Achilles heel and keeps hammering at it… so expect to see more of exactly this for the next three months.

Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley’s record.  Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq.  See more below the jump…

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

First things, first, if you’ll recall, Gordon Smith and the NRSC released the following web ad a few days back criticizing Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads funded by the Democratic Party of Oregon:

Today the DSCC fires back with an ad (not a web ad, an actual TV ad) criticizing Smith, and particularly his insistence that he is bipartisan and supports tax cuts for real families:

Let me know what you think and if you want to help Jeff take back this country by taking out one of Dubya’s most loyal friends, donate at: http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

Five-term Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley’s seat is safe for him as long as he wants it. He’s never had a tough re-election challenge, and Democrats failed to field any candidate against him in 2004. [CORRECTION: Art Small did file against Grassley in 2004. The fact that I forgot he ran should tell you something about how much effort the Iowa Democratic Party put behind his candidacy.]

However, I think this race bears watching, because Grassley is out of favor with some of the Christian conservatives who gained more power at the Iowa GOP’s July 12 state convention. In fact, the Iowa Republican Party’s central committee broke with tradition and did not give Grassley a slot as a voting delegate to the GOP’s national convention.

Grassley’s staff downplayed the significance of that decision, since he will have access to the convention floor in St. Paul anyway as a member of Congress. However, many observers think evangelicals snubbed the senator because he has been investigating the activities of six tax-exempt “television-based ministries.”

Grassley seems to enjoy his job and his popularity in Iowa, but he was frustrated recently that the Senate passed a Medicare bill over Republican objections. According to Grassley, he and Democrat Max Baucus of Montana had worked out a different version of the Medicare bill that would have had bipartisan support.

If Democrats make big gains in the 2008 Senate elections, and relations between Grassley and Iowa Republicans continue to go downhill, this may be a seat to put on retirement watch. No big name is likely to challenge Grassley, but if he ever gets fed up enough to retire, this becomes a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2010.

Possible Democratic contenders for an open seat include former Governor Tom Vilsack and current Governor Chet Culver, whose father John Culver held the seat before Grassley rode Ronald Reagan’s coattails into office in 1980.

In yet another sign that Democrats are enthusiastic about taking over a long held Republican seat in the MO-09 house race, Judy Baker lead all US House candidates in the nation and was 3rd among all candidates (behind senate race candidates Noriega and Hagan) for ActBlue donations last week! (Also interestingly Steve Gaw another Democratic candidate from the 9th district squeaked into the top 10).  

http://campaignnewswire.blogsp…

In a race where Republican frontrunner Bob Onder has already mistakenly released his Q2 fundraising numbers and raised only 89K, Judy Baker and Steve Gaw are posting strong numbers on ActBlue. Given that Judy Baker has raised approximately 100K on ActBlue alone she is almost certain to come in ahead of Onder’s numbers for the second quarter.  

Well, he was nearly a week late, but Republican Luke Puckett finally filed his second quarter fundraising report with the FEC last night. Let’s take a look at the raw numbers: $15,850 raised from 4/17-6/30 and under $49K raised to date.

The small silver lining for the deadline-challenged candidate is his $171,000 cash-on-hand total (most of which came from a personal loan), but that’s still well behind Donnelly’s $1 million war chest. This one is starting to look even bleaker for the GOP.

In other FEC filing news, Regina Thomas, who unsuccessfully challenged John Barrow in the GA-12 Democratic primary, finally filed an FEC report, although it was one that only covered the period from 6/20 through 6/30 instead of the pre-primary period as required by FEC regulations. Curiously, Thomas reported only having raised $20K to date, even though I recall her having raised nearly $42K on Actblue before July 1st.

But at least she’s not as hapless as the geniuses over at the Bill Sali (R-ID) campaign, who still haven’t filed a second quarter fundraising report a week after filing this message with the FEC:

I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file.  I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.